Blogs

North Dakota – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,597 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota rose by 4% in March m-o-m to 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production was even up by 6.5%, reaching 2.8 Bcf/d, a new all-time high. As is shown in the chart above, the 13 thousand horizontal wells that started production before 2018 contributed only half of the oil production in March (everything below the light blue area). Five to six years ago it used to take a well about 5 years to recover 200 thousand barrels of oil, as you’ll find in the bottom chart in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells are capable of reaching this level in just 15 months. However, initial declines are steeper nowadays. After about 2 years on production, these new wells decline to production rates not far above those of older vintages, on average (see the top chart in that dashboard). The final tab reveals the production and location of the 5 leading operators. Hess just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer, far behind Continental Resources. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here it is easy to see that initial well productivity has improved almost every year since 2010. However, as noted last time, older vintages (2008-2011) appear to hold up a little better than later wells. This holds true even after excluding wells that have been refrac’ed (which is possible in our subscription services). The following screenshot, taken from our analytics service, shows the output from the 7 largest fields in North Dakota. On the map, the locations of the wells in these fields are plotted. Recently, production in Banks and Reunion Bay has jumped higher, surpassing the record output of the 2 fields where unconventional production really started in North Dakota; the Sanish and Parshall fields. Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released March production data recently. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VQp3vo Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

20.05.2019.. WTI and Brent...Result..

Well, here comes another day of collecting money in the crude oil market. In my previous review here  I wrote that the quotations of oil are preparing for a jerk.. It was clearly visible on the chart. I'm such a patern call "COBRA's THROW... The price quite quickly reached the estimated levels. My calculation in BRENT turned out to be more accurate and the transactions were closed by take-profit. I closed the transactions in WTI manually.  While the bulk of investors and speculators-losers belatedly discusses some news, technical analysis has seen everything beforehand.  My profit in the best deal with WTI  amounted to $1,082. Isn't it bad?   Now we will look and consider in what direction and for what purpose quotes go today. At this time I will work on small movements of the dreaming investors. By the way...    Interesting what news investors and speculators-losers fasten to this jerk up? :)))    I flipped and closed the deal to SELL by take-profit.   Let smart uncles and aunts with Oxford formations wonder why
Why Oil is Still Underpriced 

sU

A/Plague

18.05.2019.... WTI and Brent

Yesterday in the trading terminal I observed a typical picture of the rushing-about crowd of the eager profit from oil. Most of this crowd is respectable misters. They like to talk about global warming, about unfortunate whales and the birdies perishing from oil, alternative power engineering and about the future of the offsprings on the perishing planet Earth. But for themselves they love money and convenient life more. Therefore for day monitor the investments, greedy read messages about the Russian oil pipelines with dirty oil, about accidents on oil fields and about the approaching hurricanes. All this will kill thousands of people and animals but will raise prices of oil and stock quotations of the oil companies. I do not watch news feeds, but on the movement of the price of oil it was visible that the crowd was inspired with some next misfortune and rushed to make purchases. It was pleasant to me to see this greedy and illiterate crowd. At me two positions were not closed from 16.05.2019 to SELL WTI. The crowd of investors gave me the chance still to earn on their greed and to make one more transaction to SELL at the level of $ 63.951. My calculation the directions of the movement of quotations and the purpose of the movement were correct. I closed all transactions to SELL with a profit. The majority was lost by money or spent one more day of the life at the same level. At the moment consolidation of the price is drawn. The movement from this consolidation will be very impressive... All of a profit

sU

A/Plague

17.05.2019.... WTI, Brent,Natural Gas and Gold

Yesterday, oil prices went in the direction indicated by the Technical Analysis. Technical analysis solves everything in the market and it is one for all market instruments. I am not interested in news and a lot of unnecessary fantasies of various analysts about the amount of oil in the ground and floating in the sea tankers.This is not necessary for the trader. To demonstrate this I yesterday except oil also traded Natural Gas and Gold. All transactions were closed with a profit. At the same time, it is very difficult to calculate and trade such a variety of tools.Therefore, closing deals were not the maximum. See figure.   Yesterday I wrote here that I keep buying positions in oil.. Figure 1 shows where the buy deals under the Brent brand were opened and closed.   Someone read me that could take advantage of it and earn something.   When the price came to the top I made a SELL deals. Figure 2 shows where I opened and closed trades.   All successful trade .

sU

A/Plague

16.05.2019.... WTI and Brent

Yesterday was more interesting. I wrote yesterday that had a SELL position. The transaction closed practically at the bottom. On achieving goal played on reversal movements. On the turn you need to make decisions and act very quickly - the time goes by seconds. Some deals have to close by hand. Trading results in the picture. All transactions are closed with a profit. It's a good exercise for practicing skills of analysis and trading. This is not the analysis of the situation , which is given by countless speakers and guru-analysts who predict the price of oil on the news about the Breakfast of the king of Saudi Arabia , the impending storm and the closing price of the previous trading session.They are not responsible for their fantasies with their money in the next two hours . Today will be a more interesting day. Today I hold the position to BUY.

US - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 102,269 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through January 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.6 Gbo and 113 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January production from these wells was at a similar level as a month earlier, with about 6.6 million bo/d (after revisions). The Permian has been responsible for most of the growth in the past 2 years. If you exclude this basin (using the “Basin” filter at the bottom), you will see that combined production in the other basins only surpassed the 2014 peak in December. The “Well quality tab” reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but only slightly. Also in this regard did the Permian have a positive impact; if you deselect this basin, you’ll note that the improvement is even smaller without it. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG increased its output by almost 50% in the past 2 years, and is now close to 600 thousand bo/d of operated capacity. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Average peak rates have again increased in 2018 (636 bo/d vs. 567 bo/d in 2017). If you switch Product to “gas”, you’ll see the natural gas production profiles for these same wells, most of it associated with oil production. These profiles have also improved a lot in recent years; the almost 8,000 horizontal wells that started in 2017 are on a trajectory to recover over 1 Bcf of natural gas each, on average. Of course, there are major differences between and within these basins. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release March production data by the end of this week. In our subscription services, you will always find the most recent data, as we process many of our data sources on a daily basis. For most states, we already have February or even March (Wyoming and Montana) production data. Even with the $52/month Analyst subscription you can already access this data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2JI4Qka Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Contaminated oil in Druzhba pipeline to cost Russia estimated $435 million

Moscow, Russia, May 13, 2019. As the situation with the quality of oil transported from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba oil pipeline is gradually improved, financial issues have come to the fore. Or, more precisely, the amount this accident will cost Russia has become of great concern. On May 11, 2019, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko reported that Belarus had lost an enormous amount of money; in particular, it had not received any profit, currency earnings, or transit. A. Lukashenko said the estimated loss of hundreds of millions of dollars was not far from the truth. Vedomosti cites the possible amount of losses on May 13, 2019, as being in the range of $271.3 million to $435.3 million. The main components of the damage are the loss of transit profits, the loss of oil refining profits, the cost of cleaning, and, possibly, the replacement and repair of damaged equipment. Loss of Oil Transit Profits In 2018, the transit fee for 1 ton of Russian oil via Belarus in the direction of Poland, Germany, and Ukraine was US $0.84/100 km. The length of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the territory of Belarus is 1900 km (i.e., the payment for the entire route is US $15.96/ton). Different sources have discussed different oil transit volumes for 2018: the volume is about 48.9 million tons according to Transneft and 58.8 million tons according to Gomeltransneft Druzhba. That is, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s profits could amount to $780.4 million to $938.5 million for transit in 2018. If the tariff and the volume of transit remain the same, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s lost profits for 14 days could range from $29 million to $35 million. The Russian Ministry of Energy expects the situation with the quality of oil in the Druzhba pipeline to normalize in the 2nd half of May 2019. In this case, normalization entails cleaning one run of the pipeline in each of the main export destinations. As a result, the pipeline throughput capacity will decrease. According to Gomeltransneft Druzhba estimates, the throughput capacity of the Druzhba pipeline may be reduced to 40 million tons/year after the accident. As a result, the company will transit 8.9 million to 18.8 million fewer tons of oil in 2019 than in 2018 (equal to a loss of $142 million to $300 million). Loss of Oil Refining Profits The poor quality of oil has forced the Mozyr Oil Refinery and the Naftan Oil Refinery to reduce their production of oil products. According to Belneftekhim, on May 11, 2019, the Mozyr Oil Refinery started to refine oil the quality of which meets the standard. By that time, Naftan was still suffering from a reduced load because the oil transit via the uncontaminated Surgut–Polotsk pipeline is insufficient for the optimal load of the plant. The damage amounted to US $100 million of lost profits. Losses Due to Equipment Damage The Mozyr Oil Refinery almost immediately claimed that equipment had been damaged. The management of the company said the equipment was damaged due to the high content of organochlorine — which has a high corrosive activity — in the incoming oil. Failures of a number of heat-exchange tubes of the HK-105 air cooler consisting of 6 sections were revealed at unit LK6U No. 2 (the primary distillation unit) of section C-100 on April 20, 2019. According to experts’ estimates, such tubes cost 3.5 million rubles each (a total of US $323 thousand). An independent expert investigation with the involvement of the Belarusian and Russian parties is necessary for an objective assessment of the damage to the equipment. Is the Damage Recoverable? The amount is staggering, and the issue of compensation will require serious discussion. However, not everything is as critical as it seems at first glance. Interfax, citing its sources, said that most of Belarus’s losses from contaminated oil in the Druzhba pipeline at this stage are not irrecoverable. The lost transit and under-utilization of the refinery will be rectified as the delivery schedule gets caught up with by the end of 2019. Possible damage to the refinery equipment would be the most serious damage, but it will take time to assess the situation. Moreover, the issue of the poisonous oil which is still on the territory of Belarus remains unresolved. Background What Happened  On April 19, 2019, Belneftekhim complained about a deterioration in the quality of the Russian Urals supplied to Belarusian refineries via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Almost immediately, it became clear that this referred to the pollution of oil with organochlorine, which is a chlorine compound released during distillation. The polluted oil has damaged the equipment of the Mozyr Oil Refinery in Belarus. Belarus had to stop the export of light oil products to Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries; Europe had to stop importing oil from the Druzhba. Oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline, which accounts for up to 8% of the EU’s annual imports, has reached the level of interstate relations between Russia and Belarus and has raised the price of oil throughout the world. As of April 13, the main channel for oil export from Russia to Poland and Germany is still completely paralyzed, but the first success of cleaning the Ukraine-Hungary minor southern string has been achieved. What is the Druzhba? The Druzhba oil pipeline, built in the 1960s with the support of the Volga region oil fields, was one of the main integration projects of the USSR with the countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. The Druzhba remains an important supplier of oil to Europe; refineries in Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and the Czech Republic still depend heavily on this pipeline. The Druzhba transits about 65 million tons of oil per year, which is a quarter of Russia’s total exports. About one-third of this oil is refined in Belarus, and almost all the remainder is received by the EU.  

Permian – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 20,021 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards The chart above shows the massive growth in Permian production, as well as the underlying decline. Preliminary oil production for January came in at 3.1 million bo/d, which after revisions will be closer to 3.5 million bo/d. That means that all the wells that started before 2018 only contributed 1/3rd of total production in January. Natural gas production, most of it associated with the production of oil, has also risen strongly. It is now well over 10 Bcf/d, placing the Permian above the Haynesville and the Utica, both in absolute numbers, and production growth. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of these 20 thousand horizontal wells. They are grouped and averaged by the year in which production began. Although activity has steeply increased, there has not been a negative impact on well performance so far. The ~5 thousand horizontal wells that started in 2018 peaked at a rate of 730 bo/d, more than 100 bo/d higher than the wells that began in the previous year. Still, after the rapid improvements in performance in the years up to 2016, a slowdown is apparent. The final tab gives an overview of the 5 largest operators. Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho are now both above 250 thousand bo/d. Occidental and Anadarko are also in this list. Occidental recently made a higher bid than Chevron in the scramble for Anadarko’s assets. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also illustrates the steadily increasing well performance in the Permian, as the curves are trending to gradually higher recoveries. The 2,247 horizontal wells that began in 2016, represented by the light brown curve, recovered 182 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2 years on production. They are on a trajectory to recover close to 400,000 barrels of oil, before they decline to a level of 20 bo/d. Early next week we will have a post on all covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VpW5Cm Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Haynesville - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from 5,059 horizontal wells in the Haynesville, that have started producing since 2009/2010, through January 2019. The post on the Permian has been delayed to later this week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in the Haynesville rose by more than 2 Bcf/d in 2018 to well over 8 Bcf/d, which was the strongest growth since 2012, breaking the previous record set 6 years earlier. The apparent drop in the last 2 months visible is due to missing production data from new wells, which will become available over time. The main reason behind this fast growth is that about 30% more wells were completed in 2018 than in the previous year. Well productivity made substantial jump in 2016 (see “Well quality”), followed by a small one in 2017, but did not improve further in 2018, based on preliminary data. New wells are on a path to recover close to 6 Bcf in the first 2 years, on average, a level that earlier wells are unlikely to reach in their lifetime. Proppant loadings have increased the most in this basin, over the last couple of years. On average, well above 20 million pounds of proppants were injected into wells completed in 2018, versus less than 5 million pounds in 2012. The final tab shows the production and location of the top 5 operators, including Chesapeake and Indigo, both operating over 1 Bcf/d.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between production rates, and cumulative recovery, over time. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also shows the major improvement in well productivity. Newer wells peak at double the rate than wells from a couple of years ago, and their initial decline is less steep. However, also these more recent wells appear to follow a similar decline after this initial period, based on preliminary data. This is more visible if you change the “Show wells by” selection to ‘quarter of first flow’, which displays more granular and recent data. Later this week we will have a post on the Permian. Today at noon (EST) we will present a briefing on all the major gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile
 

Introduction

I am an enthusiastic person who check the prices of oil and gas regularly. I also check the variation of oil prices over time and do some market analysis related research.

Eagle Ford - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,309 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January oil production came in at 1,24 million bo/d, maintaining the same level as a year earlier. However, after revisions, it will end up closer to the 1.3 million bo/d that was produced a month earlier. You will find the production profiles of these wells in the “Well quality” tab, where the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk formations have been preselected. Well productivity has improved each year since 2010, on average, but only very slightly in 2018. Recent wells peak at a rate of just over 600 bo/d, and, if they keep following the path of their predecessors, will fall to 20 bo/d after about 6 years on production. The final tab, “Top operators”, displays the production and location of the 5 largest oil producers. They all started 2019 below their highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4.5 thousand horizontal wells that began production in 2014, the busiest year so far, have recovered an average of 150 thousand barrels of oil, after a little over 4 years on production. During this time, they declined from 382 bo/d in their peak month, to 29 bo/d (93% decline). The following image was taken from a dashboard in ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional):   Here you can see the production from the top 8 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford (click on the image for a high-resolution version). It shows that most counties in the Eagle Ford are well off their peak production, but Karnes is still close. In contrast, activity in Burleson County, further to the northeast, has been picking up, albeit from a small base. Early next week we will have a new post on the Permian, followed by one on the Haynesville. On Tuesday, at noon EST, we will host another show on the ShaleProfile channel at enelyst. This time we will take a closer look at the major shale gas basins in the US. I hope to see you there!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LhTKVi   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Marcellus (PA) – update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,788 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania fell by 1% m-o-m to 18.1 Bcf/d, after setting a new record in January. Compared with a year earlier, this was just over 2 Bcf/d higher. An important reason behind the recent highs is that well productivity has continued to improve, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 748 wells that started in 2017 are on a path to recover more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, on average, more than double the amount that was recovered by wells that started 5 years earlier. As in many basins, proppant loadings have increased significantly in the past few years. In 2012 wells were completed with about 4.3 million pounds of proppants, on average. By the end of last year, this number was close to 18 million pounds. Almost all leading operators started the year with record production (“Top operators”). EQT, which bought Rice Energy, is the largest producer with 3.5 Bcf/d of production in February. However, as both entities are still reported separately, it now comes 4th in the ranking. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain year. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that newer wells are on a trajectory to recover more than 10 Bcf on average, before they have declined to a level of 100 Mcf/d. If you group the wells by quarter (using the “Show wells by” selection), the wells are sorted and averaged by quarter instead, which allows you to see more granularity and recent data. It also reveals that the 195 wells that started in Pennsylvania in the 4th quarter last year had a remarkably good start, recovering 1 Bcf on average in the first 3 months on production. We were happy to see that Trent Jacobs, from the JPT, wrote an excellent article about the other major shale gas basin, the Haynesville, last week, and that he used our analytics service for that: New Operators, Well Designs Drive Record Gas Production in Haynesville. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by updates on the Permian and the Haynesville Basin next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J1aQnD   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

North Dakota – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,527 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through February. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota fell in February by 5% m-o-m to 1.34 million bo/d. As is common in the winter months, few new wells started production (64), and more wells were shut-in. Gas production also saw a drop, but the gas oil ratio continued to rise; now 2 Mcf of natural gas is produced with every barrel of oil. Seven years ago this was only 1 Mcf per barrel. Initial well performance increased again in 2018, on average, but by a smaller amount than in the previous three years (see the “Well quality” tab). All 5 leading operators in North Dakota saw a decline in production m-o-m (“Top operators”), but they were still up y-o-y, with the exception of ConocoPhillips. This operator reduced output by 20% in February.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 wells that started in Q3 2017, represented by the light green curve, had the best initial performance. These wells peaked at 719 bo/d, and after 1.5 years on production they recovered 219 thousand barrels of oil, on average. Currently they are producing at a rate of 175 bo/d. Although the wells that began production between 2008 and 2011 had a less impressive start than more recent wells, on average, they also had a smaller decline rate. It appears that they will beat at least some of the later vintages in ultimate recovery, even if you correct for the fact that some of these wells have been refractured.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which has also released February production data some time ago. Of course, this data has already been available in our subscription services a day after it was published. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2IQ9ps0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

 

Why Tripoli must fall

The only safe outcome for Libya and Libya’s contribution to the international oil market is for Tripoli to fall to General Haftar.                 The absence of any Tripoli based central government control of the oil producing regions of Libya, far from the capital, led to an opportunity for general Haftar to expand his influence by creating and maintaining stability in those areas. The whole country is dependant on those oil producing regions for its foreign income and relies on general Haftar to keep the oil flowing. Once General Haftar attacked Tripoli he effectively lit the bridge on fire behind him and more importantly behind the whole country. If Haftar is defeated in Tripoli and his military capabilities are reduced enough or eliminated then the stabilizing force on the oil producing regions will also likely disappear, creating a vacuum which will be filled by much less pleasant characters waiting for an opportunity to seize control.                 Many people seemed surprised when Trump tweeted out his support for general Haftar, I however was not. Any opposition to Haftar is effectively an opposition to about a million barrels a day of production, production Trump will be relying on when he imposes sanctions on Iran.                 Watch Libya carefully, if Haftar loses then the likely consequence will be attacks by rebel groups on oil installations and a subsequent drop in production or at least a meaningful risk premium on whatever production is maintained.  Alex Lindsay:                 Alex is an energy industry technical expert with experience in most areas of oil and gas upstream operations and a keen interest in oil market analysis. A civil engineer by education and a driller by passion, always on the look out for grey and black swans in the energy market. The views expressed in any of Alex’s articles reflect the sentiment of his current portfolio.

Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 10,287 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through January. Originally I planned to do a post on the latest data for North Dakota (through February). Unfortunately, not all data that we rely on has been published yet, which is why I decided to do a post on Colorado & Wyoming instead. The update on North Dakota should follow early next week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states started the year at record production (after revisions), at over 620 thousand bo/d. Both states contributed to growth in the past 12 months; Colorado with ~20%, and Wyoming even at almost 50% (although from a lower base). Production in the Powder River Basin has been mostly responsible for the latter, and is now over 120 thousand bo/d. As is shown in the bottom plot on the ‘Well quality’ tab, well productivity made a big jump in 2017, but has not further increased in 2018, based on preliminary data. The big news in the past week was that Chevron bought Anadarko for 32 billion dollar, which is the biggest producer in this area (see “Top operators”). With ~100 thousand bo/d production here, this area represents about 40% of its total oil production from horizontal wells in the US, with almost all of it coming out of Weld County (CO). The following dashboard, from our analytics service (Professional), shows the location and performance of the ~1,300 horizontal wells that Anadarko currently operates in Weld County, which came online between 2013 and 2017 (click the image to see the high-resolution version). In the top-right corner you will find the performance of these wells, by year, in the familiar flow-rate versus cumulative production plot. The 2014 vintage may end up with the best average recovery, as its newer wells appear to decline more rapidly. This area is very gassy, as you can see on the map, and in the gas oil ratio plot on the bottom-right.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Also here you can see that well performance appears to have peaked (at least temporarily) in early 2017, with newer wells on a slightly lower ultimate recovery trajectory. I performed a comparison of well productivity in the DJ Basin versus the Powder River Basin. The result is presented here in the following screenshot (again from our analytics service), where I’ve selected all the wells in these 2 areas, that began production between 2015 and 2017. In both basins did well productivity increase over these 3 years, but the wells in the Powder River Basin are clearly on a path to a larger oil recovery. More gas is recovered in the DJ Basin. We were again happy to find the WSJ using our subscription service to get insights into tight oil & gas production trends: Frackers, Chasing Fast Oil Output, Are on a Treadmill. As mentioned, we should have a new post on North Dakota early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Oil Industry and the Environment: Ways to Make It Greener

More and more companies in the oil industry are now going eco-friendly. Preserving the planet is everyone’s responsibility and oil companies are no exception. In fact, with the governments all around the world raising the bars for lower emissions and the use of renewable sources, keeping up the pace with the global sustainability trend is a must. Luckily, there are quite a few ways oil companies can make their operations greener and less harmful. Here are seven of these that are really worth taking a look at. Reducing freshwater use Water is the element the oil industry simply can’t operate without. It’s used to cool the drills and remove dirt or rock debris. Hundreds of millions of barrels of freshwater end up being used on a daily basis and in order to preserve the environment that number needs to be reduced. Even though up to 95% of the water used in the oil industry is recycled, it’s still very important to rethink the extraction process and reduce freshwater use even more. Relying on solar energy There’s no need to say that oil companies rely on energy to keep their operations running. However, when going green, it’s extremely important to reduce energy use to a minimum. That’s why we see homeowners and small businesses installing solar panels on their roofs. When it comes to the oil industry, companies such as BP are creating investment funds that are to be used on producing clean energy for their operations. Therefore, we can expect to see oil companies connecting with solar producers and relying on solar energy more than ever before. Creating 3D images 3D technology has changed many industries and oil companies can rely on it to make their operations more efficient. The way this works is that they can create 3D images of the oil wells they’re drilling and use those images to make more accurate decisions. Moreover, they can utilize 3D images to eliminate any operational inefficiencies and come up with backup plans for their operations. By doing this, they can still produce the same amounts of oil but using less energy and resources along the way. Reducing gas and fluid leaks The process of drilling can result in gas and fluid leaks and developing methods for managing them is critical. Luckily, the development of new drilling techniques has resulted in both improved waste management and reduction of potential leaks while drilling. More and more oil companies now implement closed-loop systems that allow them to stay in control of their impact on the environment. Besides this, the use of quality oilfield equipment can help both onshore and offshore operators reduce the risk of gas and fluid leaks. Using advanced drilling techniques Not so long ago, oil companies had to drill at big depths in order to collect oil. But now, engineers have come up with techniques that allow these companies to drill smaller holes and still get the same results. Not only this but innovative drilling techniques also help them reduce noise and produce less waste when drilling. The way these new techniques works is that oil wells are being extended horizontally, resulting in less disturbance to the surface. Collecting more data According to some reports, companies in the oil industry only run at 77% of their true potential. This means that if more data is collected and changes are made in their approach, they could essentially reduce their energy use even more. On top of this, they could also end up reducing the amount of waste they produce. By making most of the data they collect, oil companies could also prevent accidents that occur at their rigs and create a safer working environment for their employees. Going paperless Just like with most other industries, a large amount of documentation in the oil industry is printed every day. With the Cloud technology allowing companies to store documents on the web, the amounts of paper oil companies need could easily decrease. By moving from paper to electronic systems, these companies can help save trees and eliminate human errors. Not to mention that they could save time it takes to file papers and help their employees get more work done. The use of smartphones and tablets can help eliminate the need for paper even more. The trend of going green is increasing and we can finally say we’re moving towards a more eco-friendly future. With the implementation of the right techniques and technologies, companies in the oil industry can play their part and help preserve the planet.

US - update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 101,165 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through December 2018. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.4 Gbo and 112 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Utah, where the Uinta Basin is located, is for the first time included in this update. December production from these ~100 thousand horizontal wells was above 6.5 million bo/d, a y-o-y growth of 1.3 million bo/d (after revisions). This was a similar growth rate as a year earlier. Natural gas production increased to ~60 Bcf/d, growing by about 10 Bcf/d during the year, which also matched the growth in the previous year. The production profiles for these wells can be seen in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where the oil basins are preselected. The average peak production rate grew by 12% in 2018 (635 bo/d vs 565 bo/d). If you group the wells by the quarter in which they began production (using the “Show wells by” selection), you will find that this increase in peak production rate continued throughout 2018. The final tab lists the top operators in these basins. EOG was far in the lead in December, followed by ConocoPhillips, Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho, which are basically sharing the 2nd spot. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The ~1,400 horizontal wells that started producing in the first quarter of 2012, peaked at a rate close to 300 bo/d, have now declined to 20 bo/d, and recovered 150 thousand barrels of oil in the process. The ~1,400 wells that began production 4 years later (Q1 2016), peaked at a rate roughly 50% higher, and are also on track to recover about 50% more oil, before they have fallen to 20 bo/d. A major question now is whether this relationship between initial production, and ultimate recovery will hold up with ever more “child” wells being drilled. Unlike their “parent” wells, they do have nearby producing wells. We will explore this question in more detail in the coming months. If you have questions that cannot be answered by the interactive presentations here, schedule a free demo with us here, or request a 10-day trial. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release February production data by the end of this week.   Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile
 

Achieving High IRR's Financing Oil Deals

TODAY'S INVESTMENT GOAL:   How to achieve high Internal Rates of Return, (IRR), with a properly structured transaction based on existing oil and gas production … without the market risk of most oil and gas investments.  Can this be done?   Requirements to achieve the strategy and returns for discussion: Buy production at a reasonable discount Evaluate the production as to the operator’s capability to deliver what is purchased Hedge the acquired oil/gas to eliminate market risk   Requirement #1   Acquire production at a discount   The niche is the small to medium sized producer that has found development capital difficult to raise due to banking reserve requirements after the oil/gas price crash of 2014-2018.  Deal with producers that have existing PDP production that can be leveraged and provide the capital to improve it.   The oil is ‘rented’ for a term under a delivery schedule obviating the risks of onerous working interest structures, joint venture follies, drilling and equipment issues and any assortment of the usual risks.  The investor is not an oil company…   Oil Company Benefits:  Not an interest bearing loan, a footnote to the balance sheet Non-recourse Zero equity take-out, the company parts with none to the investor   Requirement #2                          Evaluate the operator’s capability to deliver The existing production is evaluated by a major engineering firm.  They deliver a comprehensive report regarding the ability of the oil company to meet their delivery obligations for the length of the term. The amount of oil purchased varies based on the capital needs of the company.  Oil/Gas is delivered on a stated monthly schedule, that matches the decline curve of the production.  The investor becomes part of the division order to secure repatriation of the invested amount, satisfying the delivery contract. Requirement #3 Hedge the acquisition to avoid market risk The desire is to avoid all market risk… a put is purchased on every barrel of oil bought, matching exactly with the delivery schedule.    What are the risks?       1. Market: Risk Factor – NONE Eliminated due to hedging      2. Counter party on the hedge: Risk Factor – MINIMAL  Reduced by using top credit firms.      3.  Delivery: Risk Factor – MINIMAL Reduced by quality engineering during due diligence.     4.  Environmental and Title: Risk Factor – NONE One of the top oil and gas law practices in the country prepares the review of title and environmental risks.     5.  Character: Risk Factor – MINIMAL Extensive background and credit record of the operator and producer is performed and evaluated.  In Conclusion: Investor Benefits:   The capability to have a high IRR, (much higher than most oil companies make historically). The investor has no downside market risk and can structure the transaction so they have upside profit potential. The investor has no operating expense, is not subject to being over-operated, has no equipment, will never get a cash call. The returns available via this structure are generous as to IRR’s, much higher than other investments with similar risk profiles.  

Eagle Ford - update through December 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,067 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards December oil production, close to 1.3 million bo/d, barely changed y-o-y. Just over 1,800 new horizontal wells were able to counter the ~45% decline in legacy production in 2018. Gas production hovered last year just below 6 Bcf/d. Initial well performance in the 2 main formations (Eagle Ford & Austin Chalk) was basically unchanged in 2018, as the bottom graph in ‘Well quality’ tab reveals. The over 3,500 horizontal wells that started since 2017 are on a path to recover 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production, on average, in addition to about 0.7 Bcf of natural gas. The leading operator in this basin, EOG, has been increasing output throughout 2018, and exited the year at twice the rate than the number 2, ConocoPhillips (see “Top operators”).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. You can see here that the bulk of the wells that began production since 2011 are going to recover on average between 150 and 200 thousand barrels of oil, before hitting a production rate of 10 bo/d. This does however also include a significant number of gas wells. Filtering on well type (oil/gas) is a subscriber-only feature. The 4th tab ranks operators by the average cumulative oil production in the first 2 years. Of the larger operators (>100 operated horizontal wells), Devon, ConocoPhillips and Encana are showing the best results according to this metric. If you missed our briefing on all the major tight oil basins on enelyst last Tuesday, you can still read the full update by entering our channel here: ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Early next week we will have a post on all the 11 states that we publicly cover in the US (Oklahoma is currently for subscribers only).   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HZjpQa   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile