Blogs

North Dakota – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 13,545 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005. May oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,245 kbo/d, after a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. This pushed production higher than the previous all-time high in December 2014.   Recent wells are closely tracking the performance of the wells that started in 2017 (see the bottom graph in the ‘Well quality’ tab), on average.   In May 109 new wells started flowing, the highest since September 2015 (see the ‘first flow’ status in the ‘Well status’ overview).   In the final tab (‘Top operators’) you’ll find that ConocoPhillips has grown production the most in the past 1.5 year (percentage wise), to almost 100 thousand barrels of oil per day, making it the 3rd largest producer in this state, behind Continental Resources and Whiting.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started.   More wells started in 2017 than in 2016 (970 vs 724), and their initial performance was also substantially higher, as the plot above shows. They recovered on average almost 100 thousand barrels of oil in the first 6 months on production, a level that took almost 12 months for wells that started 2 years earlier. If you group the wells by the quarter in which they started (using the ‘Show wells by’ selection), you’ll see that the initial performance of the wells that started in the 3rd quarter last year was especially high, with close to 150 thousand barrels in the first 9 months.   Although not so profitable, associated gas production rose even more, which becomes visible if you change the ‘Product’ selection to ‘Gas’. This is displayed in more depth in the 9th tab (‘Gas oil ratio’), where you can see in the bottom graph that this ratio has risen almost uninterruptedly in the past decade.   As mentioned in my last posts, next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, I’ll be more than happy to show you our vision and give you a demo. We’ll start posting again in the week after.   Production data is subject to revisions.For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/19/north-dakota-update-through-may-2018   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

US – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March, from 88,617 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.6 Gbo and 94.2 Tcf. The latest data for Ohio, which just released Q1 production figures, is also included. Only data for West Virginia is not up-to-date, and therefore this state has been deselected in most views.   With the surge in drilling and completion activity since early 2017 both oil and gas production from these horizontal wells reached new records in recent months, at over 5 million bo/d and 50 Bcf/d. Current production is heavily dependent on recent completions, as the decline rates are high; for example, oil production from wells that started producing before 2015 is contributing just 23% of current production, as shown by the top of the dark green area in the above graph. Between the basins there are major differences, with some setting records each month (Permian, Appalachia, Niobrara), while others have not fully recovered yet (Eagle Ford, Haynesville), and a few appear to be in terminal decline (Barnett, Granite Wash). The major underlying reason for these differences is changing well productivity, which can be analyzed in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Note that the oily basins have been preselected in the ‘Basin’ filter, which you can manually adjust.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The major increase in initial well performance  in the past 2 years is clearly visible here. Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released May production. Next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, come visit our booth. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/16/us-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Eagle Ford – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from 20,615 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region (TRRC districts 1-4), that started producing since 2008. Growth is tepid in the Eagle Ford basin, and recent oil output remains well below the high set in March 2015, even after upcoming upward revisions.   Although well productivity has also improved in this basin, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab, the effect has been more modest. After normalizing for the increase in lateral length, it almost disappears, despite that the amount of proppants used has doubled over the past 4 years. EOG is the largest oil producer in this area with ~ 250 thousand bo/d operated production capacity (see the ‘Top operators’ tab).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview the relationship between production rates, and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   For example, the thick blue curve, representing the 1,024 horizontal wells that started in Q3 2013 peaked on average at a rate of 361 bo/d, and are now just below 24 bo/d, after having recovered 133 thousand barrels of oil and 0.5 Bcf (you can click on this group in the color legend to highlight the related curve). In comparison, the 474 wells that started in Q4 2017 peaked at double the rate. But will they also double the ultimate oil & gas recovery? It’s too early to tell for sure, but noting that the decline behavior has been relatively predictable in the past, it appears they will fall short of that.   Later this week I will have a post on all 10 covered US states, followed by an update on North Dakota. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there. You can follow me here on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaleProfile Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/09/eagle-ford-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Permian – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from all 15,294 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009.     Oil production in the Permian has kept its upward trajectory through the first quarter of this year. The percentage growth since mid last year was even larger in New Mexico (50%), than in Texas (toggle the basins in the ‘Basin’ selection to see this).   Despite the increase in drilling & completion operations, well productivity has not deteriorated in recent quarters. The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the production profiles for all wells that started in a particular year, and here you can see that on average, recent wells are tracking the performance of wells that started in 2016. Those are on a path to recover ~200 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   In the bottom graph in the ‘Well status’ overview you can see the percentage of wells that are producing at a certain production level. In March, just over 400 wells were producing above 800 bo/d (a new record). The percentage of wells that are producing below 50 bo/d has remained steady at about 50% in the past couple of years.   The 4 leading oil producers in this basin are producing at or near record output levels, as shown in the final tab (‘top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   If you want to figure out which operator has the best average well results, the ‘Productivity ranking’ tab is a good place to start. Here you can see the ranking of all operators by the average cumulative production over the first 24 months. If you change this measurement period to 12 months, and select only the years 2016/17 using the ‘Year of first flow’ selection, you can see that of the large operators (>100 operated wells), EOG scores the best, with an average cumulative oil production of 207 thousand barrels in the first year for all its 147 wells that started producing in 2016 & 2017 (Jan-April only).     Early next week I will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all covered states in the US. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.  For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/04/permian-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile