Blogs

Marcellus (PA) – update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,298 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through July. It also contains the production data from Ohio & West Virginia, but as these states have a greater lag in their reporting, only Pennsylvania is preselected in most views.   Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards As you can see, unconventional gas production from horizontal wells set a new record in July, at 16.4 Bcf/d. In June just over 100 wells started production (compared with an average level of ~60 wells per month so far this year), which explains this sudden jump. The cumulative production profiles, shown in the bottom graph of the ‘Well quality’ tab, reveal that well performance improved significantly in 2017, but that it has not made further strides so far in 2018. A typical well recovers 2.7 Bcf in the first 12 months on production now, a level that took more than 4 years for a well that started in 2012.   Of the largest operators in this area, Chesapeake showed the biggest gain in output in July, narrowing the gap with Cabot, which recently took over the lead (see “Top operators”).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain quarter. If you click on the wells that started in Q4 2013 (in the color legend), you’ll see that this group of wells has so far recovered most gas, on average, at 4.4 Bcf per well. Declines are low (compared with oil), and I belief that the current level of completions (~ 2 wells per day), can sustain a higher gas production capacity. Later this week I plan to have a new update on the Niobrara, followed by one on the Permian early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Q5P0jg     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through July 2018

These interactive presentations contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 13,628 horizontal wells in North Dakota through July, that started production since 2005. July oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,269 kbo/d, after a month-on-month rise of 3.4%, setting a new record for the state. Visit ShaleProfile blog to use and explore interactive dashboards   An important factor behind this jump were the 141 new wells that started production, the highest number in 3 years. Completion activity was higher in the first 7 months of this year compared with last year (649 vs 525 wells).   Several operators set new production records, including Continental Resources and ConocoPhillips, which just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer in this area (see ‘Top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. It shows that so far the wells that started in Q3 2017 had the best start; after 11 months they recovered on average 169 thousand barrels of oil. Although lateral lengths haven’t changed much in North Dakota, proppant loadings have doubled in the past 4 years, to close to 1,000 lb/ft. In our online analytics service, these trends can be easily analyzed by play and operator. Request a free trial here! Next week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MIA8oV     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May, from 91,810 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.9 Gbo and 98.6 Tcf. Their total oil production was close to 5.5 million bo/d in May, or more than half of total US oil supply, while gas production topped 50 Bcf/d.   If you group this total oil production by ‘production level’, using the ‘Show production by’ selection, you will find that in May ~4 million bo/d came from just ~12 thousand wells that each produced over 100 bo/d. All other wells combined (~80k) produced just the remaining 1.5 million bo/d, although that also includes gas wells.   The ‘Well status’ tab shows the status of all these wells over time. Looking at the ‘First flow’ status, or wells that have just started production, reveals that since the 2nd half of 2017 between 800 and 1,000 new horizontal wells were brought into production each month (taking into account upcoming revisions), versus less than 600 in 2016.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. As the curves show, well productivity improved each year since 2012. The ~5.3 thousand horizontal wells that started in 2016 recovered each on average 134 thousand barrels of oil in the first 18 months, and they are on a trajectory to recover one more time that amount, before declining to level of ~20 bo/d.   Early next week I will have a new post on North Dakota. We are still handing out free trial accounts for our ShaleProfile Analytics service, which covers more dashboards and up-to-date data. If you’re interested, you can apply for a trial here. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CJiam9     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May, from all 7,962 horizontal wells that started production in the Niobrara region (Colorado & Wyoming) since 2009/2010. As shown in the graph below, 2017 was a similarly strong year for oil production growth as 2013, with more than 150 thousand bo/d added. Since end of last year, production from unconventional horizontal wells has remained just below half a million bo/d. In May about 70% of total oil production came from wells that started since the beginning of 2017. Gas production has now reached a level of 2.5 Bcf/d (set ‘Product’ to ‘gas’).   Completion activity is still a bit behind the record levels seen at the end of 2014, with ~120 wells per month added (vs. ~160 in the 2nd half of 2014). A big factor behind the recent output levels is then also improved well productivity, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Wells that started in 2017 performed better than earlier wells; on average they reached the 100 thousand barrel mark within the first year of production, while this took at least 1.5 years for earlier vintages.   Anadarko and Noble Energy are the largest operators in this region (see “Top operators”), but Extraction Oil & Gas is catching up rapidly.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production of all these horizontal wells is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   The jump in performance since Q4 2016 is clearly visible here. Since then however no further improvement is seen. If you group the wells by month, to see more recent and granular data, you’ll note that the best performance so far is shown by wells that started in Dec 2016. Many of the wells here are already at or close to stripper well status. Wells that started before 2014 are producing now on average at a level of 15 bo/d or lower. More dashboards, with other types of data (completion sizes, lateral lengths, etc) and more up-to-date data are available in our online analytics tool, for which you can request a free trial. We just started a YouTube channel in which we are sharing some movies on how you could perform particular analyses using this new tool: ShaleProfile Analytics on YouTube The following is a screenshot from a dashboard that shows a map with the gas-oil ratio (GOR) of all wells in the heart of the DJ-Niobrara basin, in their most recent month. On the right side you can see their ultimate recovery curves, with the related GOR plotted below. Also in this basin you can find areas where the GOR is rising faster for more recent wells, and that this is negatively impacting long-term recovery rates (not shown here below). [right-click and view/download to see a higher resolution version] Early next week I have an update on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2x25WQp     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from 20,900 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008. In the first 5 months of this year, oil production from these wells has hovered around a level of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. This was a few percent above the output 12 months earlier, but lower than the level reached in Q4 last year.   Although well performance has also steadily shown improvements here over the past years, most of it has come from better initial (<12 months) productivity, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 1,602 wells that started producing in 2012, in the Eagle Ford or Austin Chalk formations, peaked at ~300 bo/d, while the 1,687 wells that started 5 years later did so at more than double this rate. Completion activity is still well below the peak in 2014 (~150 wells/month in 2018, vs. over 350 wells/month in 2014).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview the relationship between production rates, and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.   If you select only the Austin Chalk formation (using the ‘Formation’ selection), you’ll see that this formation is receiving more attention recently, with almost 100 wells completed in 2017, and that since 2016 their performance is better than comparable Eagle Ford wells.   Later this week I will have a new post on the Niobrara region. We just added a new dashboard in our ShaleProfile Analytics service, with which it is easy to see the gas/oil ratio across a basin, how this ratio has changed over time, and whether it has affected well productivity. See here a screenshot for this dashboard with the Eagle Ford selected (click and view or download to see the high-resolution version):   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2NcikGU     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 16,326 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. In this update we were able to include more recent wells, which explains the higher (~10%) production level.   Output has surged higher in the first 5 months of 2018, following the rapid rise in 2017. As the graph shows, about 75% of total oil production in May came from wells that started producing since the beginning of last year. Associated gas production has followed a similar growth path, and is now well above 7 Bcf/d (switch product to ‘gas’). By selecting only New Mexico (using the ‘Basin’ selection), you can see that oil production in this area of the Permian really accelerated since September last year, and is now close to half a million barrels of oil per day. Almost double the number of wells started production in the first 5 months compared with last year (331 vs 176).   In the “Well quality” tab the production profiles for all these wells are visualized. The bottom graph presents the cumulative production for each vintage. You can see that the wells that started in early 2016 are now closing in on the 200 thousand barrels of oil mark, on average, after about 2.5 years of production. It appears that more recent wells will do slightly better than that.   In  the ‘Well status’ overview, you’ll find the status of all these wells. If you select the status ‘First flow’, you can see that in the past year more than 300 wells started production each month, a level far higher than in the past.   All leading operators are at, or near, record production levels (‘Top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Recent wells are peaking at an average rate of ~700 bo/d in their first full calendar month, and are tracking a recovery slightly above the wells that started in Q2 2016. Early next week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on the Niobrara.   Don’t want to wait to see the latest production data for each state? Check out our ShaleProfile Analytics service, in which we keep the data always up-to-date. For example, it already contains over 80% of June production in Texas, as well as Q2 for Ohio. If you’re interested, you can start with a free trial. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2wth6fY     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data through June, from all 8,236 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010. Gas production from these wells has hovered around a level of 16 Bcf/d in the first half of 2018. During this period, 351 horizontal wells started production versus 299 in the year before.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab, the production profiles of all these wells can be found, averaged by the year in which they started. If you group them by county instead (using the ‘Show wells by’ selection), you will see in the bottom graph that wells in 3 counties in the north east of Pennsylvania have the best average performance: Wyoming, Susquehanna and Sullivan.   The final tab (‘Top operators’) shows the output and location of the 5 leading operators in this area; Chesapeake, Cabot, Range Resources, EQT and Southwestern Energy. It also reveals that Chesapeake appears to follow a strategy to ramp up gas production before each winter, before letting it decline again.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain quarter. It shows that well productivity has steadily risen over time, and that there was a significant jump in performance in Q4 2016. Since then, the improvements have leveled off.   Later this week I plan to have a new update on the Permian, followed by one on the Eagle Ford early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2NmJ44d     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through June from all 13,628 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005. June oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,246 kbo/d, after a month-on-month drop of ~1.5%. As shown in the below graph, wells that started production since 2017 contributed about half of total oil production in June.   If you switch to gas, you’ll see that natural gas production has risen strongly in North Dakota in the past 1.5 years.   In the ‘Well status’ overview the historical status of all these wells can be seen. The bottom graph there shows that in June just over 1,200 horizontal wells (9% of total) produced more than 200 bo/d, which was good for more than half of total oil production. About 60% of the wells are now at a rate below 50 bo/d.   Of the leading operators, only ConocoPhillips set a new record in June, at just below 100 thousand barrels of oil per day. Continental Resources, although still in the lead, has not drilled many additional wells in the past 1.5 years, and has now depleted its DUC count by half since March last year.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. Here you can see that on average initial well performance has improved since 2015. However, you can now also find areas where it has actually fallen.   An interesting case is Oasis. If you select only this operator (in the ‘Operator’ selection), you can see that the shape of the decline has changed radically for recent wells; although they started at a high initial flow rate, after about 8 months on production the decline is steeper than seen before. It may well be that these wells will eventually recover less oil than many of its earlier wells.   Next week I plan to have a post on the Marcellus, followed by one on the Permian. If you want to have always access to the latest data for all states, please consider our online analytics service, which was just launched. Besides being able to see all the individual horizontal wells, it also allows you to analyze trends in lateral lengths and proppant loadings. You can find more information, including the possibility to request a free trial, here on our products page. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Lo3ckL     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Ready To Adopt Those Renewables?

I read an article today from The Independent reminiscent of many similarly themed articles. It was about solar panels. The personal use kind—the kind you install on your roof. It didn’t really tell me anything new. The gist of the article was that there was this new survey conducted. And in this survey, they asked British folk whether they wanted to install solar panels on their roofs. The survey had found that “the majority of” British people would like to install solar panels if
“greater government assistance was available,” the article read. If you’re looking for the actual figures, that “majority” is 62 percent. And then 60 percent would like to install an energy storage device. Then 71 percent would like to join a community energy scheme—again, if there was government support. Too bad their government deep-sixed its green subsidies. On the surface, I guess you could interpret those figures like, “Holy cow! Most British people want to be greenies and install solar panels!” But let’s be real. What the study shows is that 60-some percent of people would do it if someone else paid for it. Lovely. But well, you know, that means 40-some percent of people are NOT interested in installing solar panels or energy storage devices—EVEN IF the someone else paid for it. Not exactly a stellar endorsement. So look. This green thing is peachy. I’m not against renewables. I’m not even apathetic about renewables. I’m just realistic—it doesn’t have to be all or nothing when it comes to fighting climate change or just going green. It's talked about in absolutes. Renewables being the death of coal and oil. Or renewables are dead in the water as Big Oil fights back. This black and white view of things is narrow-minded and impractical. If you think the world is excited to fight that climate change, you are going to be disappointed. Well, people are generally disappointing I guess, so no shocker there. There are probably many people who are interested in greenifying their lifestyle—but only if it costs them nothing, and only if they have to give up nothing. Unless maybe you’re a Hipster (which I suppose you wouldn’t call yourself that even if you were), then I suppose you feel good about your greenness. You probably recycle your rainwater in some barrel on your roof. You ride your bicycle to work. You don’t use plastic water bottles and you recycle almost everything, including your skinny jeans and your cans of Pabst or Schlitz. Woot woot. But your green contributions, as noble as they may be, are lost in the sea that is Asia, who is offsetting any dip in US emissions, and then some.   There are some true believers, though, and I salute them. I used to do transcription work, and one of my transcripts was an interview with a woman who was all-in on this green lifestyle. She didn’t buy anything that was packaged. She went to the butcher and would take a reusable container to put meat in that she had purchased. They didn’t use plastic of any kind. They didn’t use soap (it’s packaged). She would bring buckets of water from the river to flush their toilet. Now that’s all-in. I respect that. She’s not driving her 4X4 to some hippie protest of an oil pipeline in ND, creating in their wake millions in cleanup costs.   (photo courtesy BBC) She sacrificed something (a whole lotta something) instead of jumping up and down asking the rest of the world to do the sacrificing. She’s not flying her fossil-fuel-burning jet or yacht to chastise the world for our dirty global warming ways.   Photo courtesy Eric Worrall, wattsupwiththat.com And she’s not immersed in the latest fossil fuel cause celebre, just because it is the cause celebre.   Photo courtesy of Instagram Oh, there are many self-righteous individuals who are eager to bash fossil fuels while enjoying the fruit of the Big Oil tree. Cities suing Big Oil for their role in climate change, all the while consuming the very product they are so vehemently opposed to. She’s not loudly divesting from oil.  Phooey, you sanctimonious grandstanders. I’m calling you out. If you want to give up your plastic straws and trade your truck for an EV, you do it. Without the fanfare, preferably. And if you’re not ready to give up fossil fuels, SILENCE PLEASE.  

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US - update through April 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through April, from 90,168 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.7 Gbo and 96.7 Tcf. The number of well completions in the 2nd half of 2017 was about 60% higher than the average level in 2016, which explains most of the rise in output over the past year. Average initial well productivity in the oily basins did not change much over this period, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab.   EOG, with an operated production capacity of almost half a million bo/d, is the largest shale oil producer in the US (see the ‘Top operators’ overview).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started.   By changing the ‘Show wells by’ selection to ‘Quarter of first flow’, you’ll see more recent and granular data. It also reveals that since Q4 2016, the average production profile hasn’t changed as much as before, as noted before. The 1,323 horizontal wells that started in Q4 2016 have recovered each on average just over 140 thousand barrels of oil through April, and declined to a production rate of 140 bo/d.   Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released June production. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ORa9Nn   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through April 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through April from 20,207 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008. Despite significant future upwards production revisions, which are typical for Texas, it appears that total oil and gas production has declined in the Eagle Ford since December.   It also appears that the wells that started producing in 2018 are so far closely tracking the performance of wells from last year (see the ‘Well quality’ tab). However, on closer inspection (by selecting to show wells by ‘Quarter of first flow’), you can see that there were some minor improvements since the 2nd half of 2017.   All leading operators have been unable to grow production here since early 2015, although EOG is close to its previous high (‘Top operators’ tab). Devon Energy shows the largest decline among them, with a ~60% drop.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview the relationship between production rates, and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.   For example, the 1,850 horizontal wells that started in 2011 (represented by the red curve) are now at an average rate of 15 bo/d, after having recovered 130 thousand barrels of oil and 0.8 Bcf (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Based on average cumulative production in the first 2 years, Devon Energy is still showing the best results (at 220 thousand bo/d) of the operators with at least 100 wells, while EOG is the number 5 (‘Productivity ranking’ dashboard). Later this week I will have a post on all 10 covered US states, followed by an update on North Dakota early next week. As you will have noticed, we have performed a major upgrade of our website. Besides this free blog, we now offer two services with which the developments in the shale oil & gas industry can be closely monitored: ShaleProfile Analytics, an online portal with similar user-friendly dashboards as shown here on the blog, but with new dashboards, and access to more up-to-date data, such as lateral positions, proppant loadings, and lateral lengths. You can request here a free trial. ShaleProfile Data, where you can subscribe to our underlying data platform, and receive monthly updates with the latest data. You can bookmark https://shaleprofile.com/blog/ , if you wish to get quick access to the latest blog posting here. Please tell me what you like and especially don’t like about this new setup! Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/2018/08/14/eagle-ford-update-through-april-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through April 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through April from all 15,532 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. The graph above shows the rapid growth of unconventional oil production from horizontal wells in the Permian where total oil output doubled in the past 2 years. As usual for this region, recent data is incomplete, and I expect that after revisions April production has set another record to over 2.2 million bo/d.   In the “well quality” tab the production profiles for all these  wells can be analyzed. The bottom graph shows that average well performance strongly increased from 2013 to 2016, and has not much changed since then.     The 3 leading operators, Pioneer, Concho and EOG, have more than tripled their operated production in the past 4 years (see the ‘top operators’ overview).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   Here you can see that recent wells track quite closely the performance of the wells that started in Q2 2016 (the light green curve), which have in 2 years recovered on average 180 thousand barrels of oil and are now at a production rate of 132 bo/d. The graph in the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’) displays how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative production in the first 2 years, has evolved over time. You’ll note that this metric almost tripled from 2013 to 2016, to more than 180 thousand barrels of oil.  The next update will be on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all 10 covered states in the US. Within the next week we are launching here our new online analytics service, with which the data and trends for more than 100 thousand horizontal wells in the US can be analyzed in user-friendly dashboards. You can already find a bit of information on the following page for this, where also a trial account can be requested: ShaleProfile Analytics   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/08/07/permian-update-through-april-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data through April, from all 8,137 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010. After the significant jump in output at the end of last year, gas production has remained fairly steady at a level around 16 Bcf/d, and just like in the past 3 years there was a small dip in May. Only 252 horizontal wells started production in Pennsylvania in the first 5 months of this year, which was the lowest number since 2010. The initial performance of these new wells is similar to the ones that started in 2017, which were the best to date (see the bottom graph in the ‘Well quality’ tab).   Cabot has taken over the lead from Chesapeake as the largest gas operator in this area, as you’ll see in the ‘Top operators’ tab. The top 5 operators shown there operate more than half of total unconventional gas production in this state. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain year. The ~600 wells that started in 2010 have now recovered on average 3.3 Bcf, and are now at a flow rate of 600 Mcf/d. By extrapolating the 2014 curve, you’ll see that these wells are likely to recover about double this number by the time they’ve declined to this flow rate. In the 6th tab (‘Productivity map’), you’ll find which areas in Pennsylvania  are the most productive, as measured by the average cumulative gas production in the first 2 years.   Last week we launched the ShaleProfile Analytics portal at the URTeC, in which the performance of more than 100 thousand horizontal wells in the US can be analyzed in even more detail than here on the blog. This portal also allows you to see the detailed location of all these wells, and analyze how changing lateral lengths and proppant loadings has affected well performance, among many other capabilities. We’ll have soon more information about this on our webpage. If you’re interested you can already find some brief information, and the possibility to request a trial license, in this link. Next week I plan to have new updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/08/02/marcellus-pa-update-through-may-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Capital for Independents Take on a New Look

Capital for small independents has been an issue since the downturn and doesn't appear to be abating even with $65-70 oil.  Banks have been less interested in providing much needed capital to these smaller entities. When the oil market crashed in 2014, there were 177 bankruptcies as a result.  Why did they occur?  Simple... the banks lent the oil companies money based on their reserves, valued at $80-100 per barrel.  When the market crashed to $27 a barrel, the banks called the loans but the money was in the ground and everyone was upside down. Needless to say, it was a bad decision all around; relying on a fractious commodity price to service a hard asset with a terminable interest rate that needed to be paid back come hell or bankruptcy. The result is the small to medium operator has no source of capital.  They're too small for the larger banks or private equity firms to be interested.   Volumetric Production Payments, (VPPs), have been used prior to even the oil and gas industry drilling its first well... in the gold rush days to be exact.  It provides financing by using existing production to forward finance re-works, re-completions, PUD drilling etc. The production is bought at a discount to the market and a strict delivery schedule is offered to the financial source and hedged.  Typical terms are 3-4 years at the end of the term, the producer gets his total production back.  Normal terms are for the producer to retain 40-70% of his existing production during the term. There are about 9,000 independent oil and gas producers in the U.S and employ an average of just 12 people...this is a market niche that desperately need to be served.

North Dakota – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 13,545 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005. May oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,245 kbo/d, after a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. This pushed production higher than the previous all-time high in December 2014.   Recent wells are closely tracking the performance of the wells that started in 2017 (see the bottom graph in the ‘Well quality’ tab), on average.   In May 109 new wells started flowing, the highest since September 2015 (see the ‘first flow’ status in the ‘Well status’ overview).     In the final tab (‘Top operators’) you’ll find that ConocoPhillips has grown production the most in the past 1.5 year (percentage wise), to almost 100 thousand barrels of oil per day, making it the 3rd largest producer in this state, behind Continental Resources and Whiting.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started.   More wells started in 2017 than in 2016 (970 vs 724), and their initial performance was also substantially higher, as the plot above shows. They recovered on average almost 100 thousand barrels of oil in the first 6 months on production, a level that took almost 12 months for wells that started 2 years earlier. If you group the wells by the quarter in which they started (using the ‘Show wells by’ selection), you’ll see that the initial performance of the wells that started in the 3rd quarter last year was especially high, with close to 150 thousand barrels in the first 9 months.   Although not so profitable, associated gas production rose even more, which becomes visible if you change the ‘Product’ selection to ‘Gas’. This is displayed in more depth in the 9th tab (‘Gas oil ratio’), where you can see in the bottom graph that this ratio has risen almost uninterruptedly in the past decade.   As mentioned in my last posts, next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, I’ll be more than happy to show you our vision and give you a demo. We’ll start posting again in the week after.   Production data is subject to revisions.For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/19/north-dakota-update-through-may-2018   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March, from 88,617 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.6 Gbo and 94.2 Tcf. The latest data for Ohio, which just released Q1 production figures, is also included. Only data for West Virginia is not up-to-date, and therefore this state has been deselected in most views.   With the surge in drilling and completion activity since early 2017 both oil and gas production from these horizontal wells reached new records in recent months, at over 5 million bo/d and 50 Bcf/d. Current production is heavily dependent on recent completions, as the decline rates are high; for example, oil production from wells that started producing before 2015 is contributing just 23% of current production, as shown by the top of the dark green area in the above graph. Between the basins there are major differences, with some setting records each month (Permian, Appalachia, Niobrara), while others have not fully recovered yet (Eagle Ford, Haynesville), and a few appear to be in terminal decline (Barnett, Granite Wash). The major underlying reason for these differences is changing well productivity, which can be analyzed in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Note that the oily basins have been preselected in the ‘Basin’ filter, which you can manually adjust.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The major increase in initial well performance  in the past 2 years is clearly visible here. Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released May production. Next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, come visit our booth. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/16/us-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from 20,615 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region (TRRC districts 1-4), that started producing since 2008. Growth is tepid in the Eagle Ford basin, and recent oil output remains well below the high set in March 2015, even after upcoming upward revisions.   Although well productivity has also improved in this basin, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab, the effect has been more modest. After normalizing for the increase in lateral length, it almost disappears, despite that the amount of proppants used has doubled over the past 4 years. EOG is the largest oil producer in this area with ~ 250 thousand bo/d operated production capacity (see the ‘Top operators’ tab).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview the relationship between production rates, and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   For example, the thick blue curve, representing the 1,024 horizontal wells that started in Q3 2013 peaked on average at a rate of 361 bo/d, and are now just below 24 bo/d, after having recovered 133 thousand barrels of oil and 0.5 Bcf (you can click on this group in the color legend to highlight the related curve). In comparison, the 474 wells that started in Q4 2017 peaked at double the rate. But will they also double the ultimate oil & gas recovery? It’s too early to tell for sure, but noting that the decline behavior has been relatively predictable in the past, it appears they will fall short of that.   Later this week I will have a post on all 10 covered US states, followed by an update on North Dakota. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there. You can follow me here on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaleProfile Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/09/eagle-ford-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from all 15,294 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009.     Oil production in the Permian has kept its upward trajectory through the first quarter of this year. The percentage growth since mid last year was even larger in New Mexico (50%), than in Texas (toggle the basins in the ‘Basin’ selection to see this).   Despite the increase in drilling & completion operations, well productivity has not deteriorated in recent quarters. The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the production profiles for all wells that started in a particular year, and here you can see that on average, recent wells are tracking the performance of wells that started in 2016. Those are on a path to recover ~200 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   In the bottom graph in the ‘Well status’ overview you can see the percentage of wells that are producing at a certain production level. In March, just over 400 wells were producing above 800 bo/d (a new record). The percentage of wells that are producing below 50 bo/d has remained steady at about 50% in the past couple of years.   The 4 leading oil producers in this basin are producing at or near record output levels, as shown in the final tab (‘top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   If you want to figure out which operator has the best average well results, the ‘Productivity ranking’ tab is a good place to start. Here you can see the ranking of all operators by the average cumulative production over the first 24 months. If you change this measurement period to 12 months, and select only the years 2016/17 using the ‘Year of first flow’ selection, you can see that of the large operators (>100 operated wells), EOG scores the best, with an average cumulative oil production of 207 thousand barrels in the first year for all its 147 wells that started producing in 2016 & 2017 (Jan-April only).   Early next week I will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all covered states in the US. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.  For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/04/permian-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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