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  1. 4 points
    Your French is atrocious. Laissez-faire translation: let it be As in let the market decide; not regulate it to the point of picking winners and losers to the point where government decides which of their mega-corporate donors receive preferential incentives, while small businesses die and middle class jobs are outsourced to slave labour states.
  2. 4 points
    Either borrow it, or print it.
  3. 4 points
    Jay as the article states it is the equivalent of 100M cars Co2 emissions and could easily grow by 50% over the next 8 years as the world goes electric. That might not sound a lot but when you think it is in the atmosphere for 16 times as long (3200 years) it becomes a real problem we should all be aware of and solve. I'm not a luddite and agree technology needs to step up and solve the issues at hand. It seems a German company has already by re-designing the switchgear, but if this isn't adopted (because of cost) then it doesn't really solve the problem going forward let alone existing infrastructure.
  4. 4 points
    ...or: "The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him". Tolstoy
  5. 3 points
    Look's like the CCP's financial crisis has arrived. This is as big as it gets, everything now depends on government action. Bloomberg - China’s Nightmare Evergrande Scenario Is an Uncontrolled Crash Hong ShenSeptember 16, 2021, 6:00 AM HST Protests intensify at China Evergrande Group offices across the country as the developer falls further behind on promises to more than 70,000 investors. Construction of unfinished properties with enough floor space to cover three-fourths of Manhattan grinds to a halt, leaving more than a million homebuyers in limbo. Fire sales pummel an already shaky real estate market, squeezing other developers and rippling through a supply chain that accounts for more than a quarter of Chinese economic output. Covid-weary consumers retrench even further, and the risk of popular discontent rises during a politically sensitive transition period for President Xi Jinping. Credit-market stress spreads from lower-rated property companies to stronger peers and banks. Global investors who bought $527 billion of Chinese stocks and bonds in the 15 months through June begin to sell. While it’s impossible to know for sure what would happen if Beijing allows Evergrande’s downward spiral to continue unabated, China watchers are gaming out worst-case scenarios as they contemplate how much pain the Communist Party is willing to tolerate. Pressure to intervene is growing as signs of financial contagion increase. “As a systemically important developer, an Evergrande bankruptcy would cause problems for the entire property sector,” said Shen Meng, director of Chanson & Co., a Beijing-based boutique investment bank. “Debt recovery efforts by creditors would lead to fire sales of assets and hit housing prices. Profit margins across the supply chain would be squeezed. It would also lead to panic selling in capital markets.” For now, Shen and nearly all of the other bankers, analysts and investors interviewed for this story say Beijing is in no mood for a Lehman moment. Rather than allow a chaotic collapse into bankruptcy, they predict regulators will engineer a restructuring of Evergrande’s $300 billion pile of liabilities that keeps systemic risk to a minimum. Markets seem to agree: the Shanghai Composite Index is less than 3% from a six-year high and the yuan is trading near the strongest level in three months against the dollar. Yet a benign outcome is far from assured. Beijing’s bungled stock-market rescue in 2015 showed how difficult it can be for policy makers to control financial outcomes, even in a system where the government runs most of the banks and can exert outsized pressure on creditors, suppliers and other counterparties. Contagion risk was on full display Thursday. Chinese junk-bond yields jumped to an 18-month high and shares of real estate companies plunged after Evergrande had its credit rating downgraded and requested a trading halt in its onshore bonds. Some banks in China appear to be hoarding yuan at the highest cost in almost four years, a sign they may be preparing for what a Mizuho Financial Group Inc. strategist called a “liquidity squeeze in crisis mode.” Where Xi will ultimately draw the line remains a mystery. While China’s top financial regulator has urged billionaire Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan to solve his company’s debt problems, authorities have yet to spell out whether the government would allow a major debt restructuring or bankruptcy. Even senior officials at state-owned banks say privately that they’re still waiting for guidance on a long-term solution from top leaders in Beijing. Evergrande’s main banks were told by China’s housing ministry this week that the developer won’t be able to make interest payments due Sept. 20, according to people familiar with the matter. China’s government isn’t averse to taking over companies from the private sector if needed. It seized Baoshang Bank Co. in 2019 and assumed control of HNA Group Co., the once-sprawling conglomerate, in early 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic decimated the company’s main travel business. Court-led restructurings have also become more common in recent years, with more than 700 being completed in 2020. Read more: Evergrande Market Fallout Grows as Local Unit Halts Bond Trading What Is China Evergrande and Why Is It in Trouble?: QuickTake Evergrande 75% Haircut Is Now a Base Case for Bond Analysts Angry Evergrande Homebuyers Protest Against Construction Halt China Tells Banks Evergrande Won’t Pay Interest Next Week The Evergrande endgame may depend largely on how Xi decides to balance his goals of maintaining social and financial stability against his multi-year campaign to reduce moral hazard. The timing is particularly tricky as China juggles an economic slowdown, a sweeping crackdown on the private sector and rising tensions with Washington -- all in the runup to a once-in-five-year leadership reshuffle in 2022 at which Xi is set to extend his indefinite rule. “The government has to be very, very careful in balancing support for Evergrande,” said Yu Yong, a former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission regulator and now chief risk officer at China Agriculture Reinsurance Fund. “Property is the biggest bubble that everyone has been talking about in China,” Yu told Everbright Sun Hung Kai analyst Jonas Short in a recent podcast. “So if anything happens, this could clearly cause systematic risk to the whole China economy.” Here are some of the factors that may sway Chinese leaders: Social Unrest Maintaining social order has always been paramount for the Communist Party, which has little tolerance for protests of any kind. In Guangzhou, homebuyers surrounded a local housing bureau last week to demand Evergrande restart stalled construction. Disgruntled retail investors have gathered at the company’s Shenzhen headquarters for at least three straight days this week, and unconfirmed videos of protests against the developer in other parts of China have been shared widely online. Evergrande had 1.3 trillion yuan ($202 billion) in presale liabilities at the end of June, equivalent to about 1.4 million individual properties that it has committed to complete, according to a Capital Economics report last week. “If Evergrande had to dump its inventory onto the market” it would “drag down property prices substantially,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International. Without a social safety net and with limited places to put their money, Chinese savers have for years been encouraged to buy homes whose prices were only ever supposed to go up. Today, real estate accounts for 40% of household assets and buying a house (or two) is a cultural touchstone. While housing affordability has become a hot topic in the West, many Chinese are more likely to protest falling home prices than spiking ones. “Given that the bulk of people’s wealth is already in property, even a 10% correction would be a serious knock to many people,” said Fraser Howie, an independent analyst and co-author of books on Chinese finance who has been following the country’s corporate sector for decades. “It would certainly knock their hopes and dreams and expectations about what property is.” Another potential flashpoint is whether Evergrande can repay high-yield wealth management products that it sold to thousands of retail investors, including many of its own employees. About 40 billion yuan of the WMPs are due to be repaid, according to Caixin, a Chinese financial news service. Evergrande is trying to free up cash by selling assets, including stakes in its electric-car and property-management businesses, but has so far made little progress. Capital Markets Evergrande is the largest high-yield dollar bond issuer in China, accounting for 16% of outstanding notes, according to Bank of America Corp. analysts. Should the company collapse, that alone would push the default rate on the country’s junk dollar bond market to 14% from 3%, they wrote in a note this month. What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter. Sign up to this newsletter While Beijing has become more comfortable with allowing weaker businesses to fail, an uncontrolled spike in offshore funding costs would risk derailing a key source of financing. It could also undermine global confidence in the country’s issuers at a time when Beijing is pushing for larger foreign investor ownership. Yields on China’s junk dollar bonds are nearing 14%, up from about 7.4% in February, according to a Bloomberg index. Evergrande dollar debt holders may not have priority in a restructuring, Citigroup strategists say. The stakes are higher on the mainland, where the credit market is about 15 times the size at $12 trillion. While Evergrande is less of a whale onshore, a collapse could force banks to cut their holdings of corporate notes and even freeze money markets -- the very plumbing of China’s financial system. In such a credit crunch, the government or central bank would likely be forced to act. Banks involved in property lending may come under pressure, leading to an increase in soured loans. Smaller banks exposed to Evergrande or other weaker developers may face “significant” increases in non-performing loans in the event of a default, according to Fitch Ratings. Economic Impact Concern over Evergrande comes at a time when China’s economy is already slowing. Aggressive controls to curb outbreaks of Covid-19 are hurting retail spending and travel, while measures to cool property prices are taking a toll. Sales of household appliances, cars and furniture worsened in August. Source: Bank of America Global Research Data this week showed home sales by value slumped 20% in August from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the onset of the coronavirus early last year. Responding to a question on Evergrande’s potential impact on the economy, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Fu Linghui said some large property enterprises are running into difficulties and the fallout “remains to be seen.” China’s current priorities of promoting “common prosperity” and deterring excessive risk-taking mean there’s unlikely to be any easing of property curbs this year, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. The sector will be a “main growth headwind” for next year, although policy makers may loosen restrictions to defend growth goals, Macquarie analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. A correction in China’s property market would not only slow the domestic economy but have global consequences too. “A significant slowdown in property construction over the next few years appears probable already, and would become even more likely in the event of an Evergrande failure or bankruptcy,” said Logan Wright, a Hong Kong-based director at research firm Rhodium Group LLC. “A long-term slowdown in property construction, an industry that represents around a fifth or a quarter of China’s economy by most estimates, would cause a significant decline in GDP growth, commodity demand, and would likely have disinflationary effects globally.” CNBC - China’s embattled developer Evergrande is on the brink of default. Here’s why it matters Weizhen Tan The Emerald Bay residential project developed by China Evergrande in the Tuen Mun district of the New Territories in Hong Kong, China, on Friday, July 23, 2021. Lam Yik | Bloomberg | Getty Images Chinese property giant Evergrande is on the brink of collapse, and analysts warn the potential fallout could have far-reaching implications that spill outside China’s borders. “Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years,” says Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. Here’s how bad its problems are, and what’s in store for investors. How did we get here? After expanding rapidly for years and snapping up assets as China’s economy boomed, Evergrande is now snowed under a crushing debt of $300 billion. The world’s most indebted property developer has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. On Tuesday, Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months, making its cash flow situation even more dire. The Chinese developer is so huge that the fallout from a potential failure could hurt not only the Chinese economy, but spread to markets beyond. Banks have also responded to its deteriorating cash flow. Some in Hong Kong, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, have declined to extend new loans to buyers of two uncompleted Evergrande residential projects, said Reuters. Ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded the firm, citing its liquidity problems. Evergrande’s problems intensified last year when China introduced rules to rein in the borrowing costs of developers. Those measures place a cap on debt in relation to a firm’s cash flows, assets and capital levels. Evergrande stock performance (HKD) year-to-date Evergrande stock (Hong Kong-listed) Feb ’21Mar ’21Apr ’21May ’21Jun ’21Jul ’21Aug ’21Sep ’21051015cnbc.com Its share price plunged nearly 80% so far this year, and trading of its bonds was repeatedly halted by Chinese stock exchanges in the past weeks. What does Evergrande do? Evergrande is everywhere. Its main business is in real estate, and it’s China’s second-largest property developer by sales. Evergrande owns more than 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities in China. Its property services management arm is involved in nearly 2,800 projects across more than 310 cities in China. The company has seven units dabbling in a wide range of industries, including electric vehicles, health-care services, consumer products, video and television production units and even a theme park. The firm says it has 200,000 employees, but indirectly creates more than 3.8 million jobs every year, according to its website. Evergrande’s shares and bonds are included in indexes across Asia. Who will be affected? The pool of affected parties include banks, suppliers, home-buyers and investors. Evergrande warned this week its escalating troubles could lead to broader default risks. It said that if it can’t repay its debt, it may lead to a situation of “cross default” — where a default triggered in one situation may spread to other obligations, leading to broader contagion. 1. Banks The banking industry would be among the first to be hit if there are any contagion effects on the wider property sector in China, said Williams of Capital Economics. “A banking failure triggered by the collapse of major property developers was the single most likely scenario that could lead to a hard landing in China. And the fact that financial markets aren’t currently signaling alarm doesn’t mean they won’t,” Williams wrote in a note last week. 2. Homebuyers and investors Protests by angry homebuyers and investors broke out in recent days in some cities, and social unrest is among the concerns. On Monday, around 100 investors turned up at Evergrande’s headquarters in Shenzhen, demanding repayment of loans on overdue financial products — forming chaotic scenes, according to Reuters. Read more about China from CNBC Pro Singapore’s top lender picks Chinese stocks for ‘bottom fishers’ Morgan Stanley picks out high-conviction China stocks Mark Mobius: China’s regulatory crackdown is creating investment opportunities In fact, sentiment is already spreading to Asia high yield bonds. Yields on Asian offshore bonds, dominated by property firms, have spiked to an average of 13%, according to TS Lombard. That also means offshore investors are at the losing end, the research firm said in a note last week. “The company’s guarantee to deliver all pre-sold projects is likely to lead to overseas stakeholders seeing little, if anything, from the ultimate sale of a developer’s assets in the event of a bailout,” said TS Lombard. “Hence the prospect of an unequal swap, where the interests of on-shore lenders – households and banks – are protected at the expense of equity and off-shore bondholders,” the note said. 3. Suppliers The implications of Evergrande’s failure could also reverberate through to other industries if suppliers are not paid. According to S&P Global Ratings, Evergrande might be “trying to persuade” its suppliers and contractors to accept physical properties as payment — in a bid to preserve cash for loan repayments. In an August report, S&P estimated that over the next 12 months, Evergrande will have over 240 billion yuan ($37.16 billion) of bills and trade payables from contractors to settle — around 100 billion yuan of that amount is due this year. A paint supplier to Evergrande, Shanghai-listed Skshu Paint, said in a filing that the real estate firm repaid part of its debt in properties – and uncompleted ones at that. Ratings agency Fitch said banks may also have indirect exposure to Evergrande’s suppliers — the developer’s trade payables stood at 667 billion Chinese yuan, according to Fitch analysis. Is Evergrande too big to fail? The government is likely to step in due to how important Evergrande is, according to analysts. “Evergrande is such an important real estate developer, and it would be a strong signal if anything happened to it,” said Dan Wang, an economist at Hang Seng Bank. “I believe there will be some supporting measures from the central government, or even the central bank, trying to bail out Evergrande.” But a restructuring could be more likely, according to other analysts. “The most likely endgame is now a managed restructuring in which other developers take over Evergrande’s uncompleted projects in exchange for a share of its land bank,” Williams of Capital Economics said in a note last week. It’s likely that the government will prioritize homebuyers and banks over other parties, he said. “Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that haven’t yet been finished. The company’s other creditors would suffer,” Williams wrote. Investment bank Natixis said the Chinese government will avoid “systemic risks” in the lead-up to the 2022 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, given its historical importance. “However, this would also imply China Evergrande’s debt crisis may snowball down the road,” the bank said in a note, adding that economic growth will not mitigate financial losses as was the case in the past.
  6. 3 points
    That is certainly an interesting story but raises a lot of questions. Why didn't the battery provide the services it was paid for? (The fire mentioned in the story is a different battery.) The statement of claim made to the court should be public record, so the reporter could have at least asked AER for that.. instead all we get is a bland comment from the operator that the battery has proved important. We will have to await developments. .. Looked at other stories. All that's being said is that the battery didn't provide the services for four months.. Neoen hasn't given a defence..
  7. 3 points
    Apparently you have zero clue how tiny the number of kilobytes(Yes, I said kilobytes) required to store temps/pressures of every station on earth. It equals approximately a long book. Do move your mind back to file sizes in the early 90's which get this... had all the exact SAME information we have today with exactly same gradations between time stamps and how large said file sizes were for the ENTIRE GHCN. Hell, you can download entire world 2m gridded temp data set for a measly 400Mb. Obviously, weather stations are not gridded on earth every 2m between stations... Now the satellite data on the other hand requires vastly more as it is a scan when the satellites are scanning anyways. But even their data is measured in Megabytes... Data itself is quite small. All of the algorithms used to manipulate the data create gradations between data points on the other hand require gigabytes to place into models. Got more ignorant examples to throw up there? PS: USDA/farm bill could be entirely eliminated and nothing would worse for wear. I would argue farmers would be better off as they could get insurance that is varied instead of rigid as the insurance industry is utterly dominated by Fed subsidies which completely distorts everything forcing the banks to only lend money to those farming exactly one way.
  8. 3 points
    According to Peter Zeihan, China has ~$35 trillion of currency in circulation. The US is currently at ~$20 trillion in circulation. The US has roughly the same in circulation as GDP, China is ~2.5x more than GDP, those numbers include recent money printing as of ~4 months ago. Those are metrics I see being thrown around, not sure how/why they matter but people like to site them. We're going to see what matters soon for Chia, can they print forever? We're about to see MMT in action like nobody's business. Of course GDP growth this year will still be reported @ 6% 😂.
  9. 3 points
    I have two very good sources for information on the many weaknesses or potential weaknesses of China. One is from an Indian source and the other I haven't figured out yet. These are videos, which I don't normally share because I prefer reading. I do follow many good video sources however. https://www.youtube.com/c/TFIglobal From India. Propaganda, but very informative if overstated. Here is their print link. https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/09/16/one-year-of-abraham-accords-trumps-pillar-of-friendship-withstood-the-attacks-of-war-mongering-biden/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_gUM8rL-Lrg6O3adPW9K1g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGWXJ-0PHp0
  10. 3 points
    the liquid commonly used in a thermometer.????? maybe 80 or 100 years ago...the liquid commonly used today in thermometers is alcohol. Why? because mercury is nasty .....not likely to ever see mercury used on a mass basis anymore.....even CFL lightbulbs are a thing of the past already
  11. 3 points
    The energy industry is SF6’s biggest consumer– it consumes more than 80% of the gas. SF6 is mostly used inside switchgear – which is an absolutely essential component of any electricity grid. They are also used inside wind turbines, which means that neither wind energy as such, nor electricity, in general, can be claimed to be completely environmentally friendly. @Jay McKinsey SF6 is 23900 times more potent than Co2 as a greenhouse gas and remains in the atmosphere 16 times as long as Co2, so wind/solar/nuclear power is not as "green" as we all think. In fact no power is green until we find a solution to this. https://plana.earth/academy/most-powerful-greenhouse-gas/
  12. 3 points
    Well, it sounds like you are so smart that you have it all figured out. I don't but maybe you can convince me over time. I am all ears. Meanwhile I am still trying to figure out who to believe. There are extremists on all sides. I do not trust much that the government says. Maybe you looked at my topic, maybe not. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vHU2hHXebxpvExT7srNNnX-VM7Qn9Ak_ZmdKCIcUti8/edit I assume everyone here has a high IQ. I do too. You seem sensible, which goes a long way with me. Mankind has definitely done a lot of damage to Mother Earth. We continue to do so but we are also in a struggle between dictators and those who support freedom (to varying extents). It seems like a downhill slide to me. I am not willing to buy China's coal use or anyone elses so that they can excel economically while the Western nations, and taxpayers, suffer the consequences. The governor of Illinois, Prizker, a multibillionaire, is pushing for maintaining our coal plants until 2045, supporting outdated nuclear plants that are losing money, supporting renewables, and $7,500 rebates for Chicagoans. You can be assured that millions of dollars exchange political hands to get that support. Meanwhile Illinois is raising taxes, utility fees, and every other fee he can dream up. People are leaving Illinois, where I live, for greener pastures with better leaders.
  13. 3 points
    All of these "claims" remind me of Wall Street's fantasy casino of CDO's, sub-prime mortgage bonds, and related manipulation of the major rating agencies to support the ongoing fantasy. Until it caught up with them... ...and you and I paid to bail them out. And the traders and executives STILL got paid! All while millions of Americans lost their homes to greed. Business just LOVES laissez-faire...until they get into deep sh*t.
  14. 3 points
    The UN is giving the Chinese a free pass on coal usage, the UN only blames the U.S. and Europe for using coal. That's life, that's how it works at the good old UN.
  15. 3 points
    Everything that adds pressure by definition is an insulator. Density is effectively proportional to thermal protection in most materials. Increase density of atmosphere, then .... It is why we knew what the pressure, temperature on Venus was before sending probes down into its atmosphere which confirmed our models of atmospheric science... But today we play make believe these basic truths are invalid... Same goes for mars, titan, and exo planets far far away. We know the suns radiation energy in and can calculate via IR its radiant energy out profile based on diameter etc. Unless said material, gas etc is completely transparent in a certain window, it will block the other frequencies. So, pull up your basic graph and look at its opacity levels compared to frequency. Even a material that is 99% opacity with enough matter will still absorb 100% of said energy. Why Water is the greatest greenhouse gas by far. It absorbs nearly everything and why CO2 is a joke. It absorbs nearly nothing.
  16. 3 points
    Let me explain it this way. In 2012 which was peak coal consumption in Texas, hauling coal from Gillette to the WA Parish Units took 6 gallons of imported oil to refine the diesel to move 1 ton of coal and return the empty cars and their engines to Gillette. The total cost for diesel including logistics of the importing tanker was $950 million. You can go to the EPA records for each plant and find the toms of coal, SO2, NOX CO2 mercury, bismuth , PM10 and PM2.5 and how many gigajoules of waste heat plus waste heat from 300 million gallons of diesel and that figures 1 coal plant with 4 660mw units. This plant added 1 billion dollars to the US trade deficit on margin.
  17. 3 points
    That's easy: Mining Transport Storage (including runnoff control) Combustion Waste disposal Coal combustion is "cleaner", but still REALLY DIRTY! How much time have YOU spent in modern power houses, coal mines/prep-plants, railroad transport? BTW, Look at this, burning thousands of gallons of fuel oil to more this black stuff to some pile hundreds of miles away, then burning more fuel moving the empties back to be re-filled! And, thanks for building this great road out in the middle of nowhere, too!! Hey, they only use 40% of the energy of this stuff, and throw the rest away! And that's just the transport... A large unit (not plant, UNIT) burns about 2 to 4 HOPPER CARS of this stuff every HOUR!
  18. 3 points
    As we know whole western world fights with Gazprom in order to save 3 bilions of Ukraine transit revenuse My conlusion 1) First I hope that those poor countries in Europe would not go bankrupt during this fight against Gazprom/ For example Ukraine. Let them keep buying in the famous Rotterdam + formula. Its actually Russian gas and everyone in gas industry know that very well. Famous Rotterdam+ formula actually means that you need to buy SPOT TTF NG but with some significant additional margin for western traders engaged. Well I have really no idea what it truely means I only once read this is significant addional margin. So well I am really very curious how much it cost for example as today, on the spot market when at some point today the TTF NG price index exceed even $ 600 per 1,000 m3 or short period of time. It seems that soon these poor Ukrainians because with have also Brent oil over $ 70 and as the poor are always unlucky so of course even this unfashionable bad dirty COAL that noone really likes today is also relatively very expensive so probably because of the great war between Ukraine and Russia, the average Ukrainian will probably work nearly all month to pay only for gas, petrol and electricity, and it would probably be appropriate to eat something from time to time. Today I do not know for sure but apparently the TTF has broken an all-time record as I read on some twitter account. 2) At least on the propaganda level, they are all fighting for the welfare of the Ukrainians. This migh be actually a very interesting prosperity in the context of the fact that they had a profit of max. 2 billion from the transmission even in these best years (yes 3 billion but 1 billion is the actual cost of the system's operation according to the Kommersant's calculations - it absolutely must not be forgotten if someone without reflection writes about 3 billion, it is probably 2 billion really) Especially taking under consideration how all those fighting for the welfare of Ukrainians have been funding them record TTH NG price for lat several months actually. 3) And ultimately they made an agreement for their prosperity as detailed in the Washington Declaration between Merkel and Biden. It is worth explaining how Ukraine will come out on this deal - the transit of 40 billion m3 will be maintained until 2024 - later all transit through Ukraine and Poland will be written with a finger on the water and will depend on actual real volume of gas transmission - these will be routes with the lowest priority for Gazprom because Ukrainian is about $ 40 more expensive than Nord Stream - so there have to be high demand for Gazprom ot the transit will simply expire - it is estimated that $ 5-10 billion will have to be invested in the general renovation in Ukraine transit system -as of today I see really no willingness. - lack of transit actually also means problems with gas distribution all over Ukraine due to too low gas pressure in the gas pipeline - in return, Ukraine will get 1 billion dollars for the time being, of which Germany will contribute only 150 million dollars for which the energy transformation of Ukraine is to take place, while Germany, managing the entire project, considers nuclear energy from which Ukraine obtains about 50% of electricity as bad non-environmental energy - in return, this $ 1 billion will go to renewable energy sources, which to be honest, considering that today it is rather still not competitive yet with traditional energy sources, Ukraine needs incense like a dead man. - the money will be taken by the Germans who will again scrape the 150 million dollars themselves as the owners of the necessary technologies - if everything goes well, the Germans will become the largest gas hub in Europe with even 110 billion m3. They will distribute this gas around Europe at the some margin LETS called it TAX for German hegemon or not, but it simply strengthens its position in the EU and will probably additionally cash the entire region on some margin - for the entire 110 billion 3 Germany will pay Russia themselves as a direct importer, which means they will probably pay some 30 billion dollars a year - Russia for all this money will do the same as always done it for many years even during Cold War which means they will buy products in Europe - happily by far the largest percentage of Russian imports are industrial equipment in these proverbial machine tools, which for many years the Russians have been importing in very large quantities - FROM GERMANY mainy please dont make any ilusions -So Generally this a golden deal for the Germans base like the main Trump slogan "Germany first" Yes German actually takes an example from partners. 4) It also happens that about an hour ago it turned out how this great western pressure on all fronts anno domini 2021 looks from Gazprom side. Pure profit for the first half of 2021, only a slight 986 billion rubles- for US citizens its 13,5 bilion $ . Additionaly Russian natural gas giant Gazprom's GAZP.MM second-quarter net income jumped more than threefold from the year-earlier period to 521.2 billion roubles ($7 billion), the company said on Monday, amid recovery in energy markets.Gazprom also said its April to June revenue rose to 2.07 trillion roubles from 1.16 trillion roubles in the same period of 2020. It said it sees 2021 investment at 1.8 trillion roubles. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russias-gazprom-says-q2-net-income-up-more-than-threefold-to-%247-bln-2021-08-30 Of course, I know that this is not all its much more complicated, but probably on September 1, 2021, Europe is definitely rather short of NG rather than Gazprom short of money.
  19. 3 points
    What world suppliers and the best prices are you talking about? Where is US LNG and why it could not come to Europe in reasonable amount? There is a problem with simple logic - more capacity (via NS2) is bad, because dependance on Russia + higher gas prices. But less capacity (without NS2) is good, because more world suppliers with best prices will come (According to this logic now Europe see "best" prices)... Can you please explain me how to undestand it? Personally, I see NS 2 just as an additional option....European customers will decide where to buy, pipeline gas or LNG. Or pipeline+LNG..Is it called Free Market? If Russia will try to use it as political tool, then Europe can buy LNG. There are plenty re-gas capacity available.
  20. 3 points
    You have great experience. However, why are U talking such a nonsense? About " Gazprom is out of gas in Western Siberia and their only other source to supply Europe was Turkmenistan". I doubt that you have any data to support your statement. It sounds like "Earth is flat". If I am wrong, and you can prove your words, I will apologise and take my words back The problem is experience and your position does not matter, if someone called "Professor" talking hogwash you should not trust his words just because he is "Professor"...Just my own example - I had few conversations with Shell managers, with Halliburton country and regional managers, and found these people have biased and limited knowledge about some oilfield aspects. But their words would be taken by someone at a face value, because "they doing top jobs in OilGas companies". This psychological effect called "Argument from authority"
  21. 3 points
    As far as I am concerned, I believe that Belarus and Ukraine are the Russian sphere of influence. If someone does not like it, I have a question whether, in the context of NATO enlargement to the east, he is ready for World War III, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons? If he is not ready, I advise you to forget about it because I can assure that Russia will never withdraw from Ukraine, taking into account that from the Ukrainian border it is less than 400 km of steppe area to Moscow. Im sorry, if the great neocenservative strategists thought that they would simply include Ukraine into the western sphere of influence as a result of a color revolution, I am very sorry but curent president of Russia is former KGB officer Putin not an alcoholic Yeltsin who would agree to anything. To be clear, the West loved the compliant Yeltsin, but the Russians much prefer Putin and accuse him rather of being too soft than tpo aggressive towards the West. Welcome you to the real world. The West achieved so much in Ukraine crisis that it pushed Russia into an alliance with China, because in the context of the actions of the West afer 1991 it had really no choice and at this point I would like to congratulate the American neoconservatives who brought it to this state. I suggest reading what was the start point if you wonder who is responsible for current state of affairs https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early So far, the United States has been pursuing a hostile policy towards the Russian Federation since 1991, and this is a fact. The Russians would have to be extremely stupid to break the alliance with China for some small concessions and beads when we already had Maidan in Ukraine and an attempted revolution in Belarus. So USA must really finally decide because if it wants to surround Russia with bases, then the Russian-Chinese alliance is tightening, which is the biggest nightmare of American geostrategists. e.g. a memento of Zbigniew Brzezinski. The minimum plan I think is that the West finally leaves Ukraine and ceases to meddle in Belarus, which is still, in my opinion, a very poor proposal in the context of cooperation with China. Perhaps the game to weaken Russia as much as possible made sense when in the 90s the popular thesis was that Russia as a power was over. However, it turned out to be an extremely stupid long-term policy - the US fought a weaker Russia and at the same time overlooked the growing quietly China and it was extremely stupid to let China join into the WTO. Now we have such a situation that on the one hand, we have China growing in strength, and on the other hand, Russia that wants revenge, and the American stupid politician, led to this situation. Secondly Russians are in no hurry. They have to just wait - Americans are losing rivalry with China for global hegemony recently and as time goes by they will be more desperate to keep hegemony so better conditions appear on the table for Russia for a new Yalta. Let me say it with no satisfaction because, unfortunately, it is us Poles who lead the extremely Russophobic and stupid one-vector policy so we will lose most at this new deal, but in my opinion, this is how it will look like in the future.
  22. 2 points
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/australia-sues-neoen-lack-power-022356197.html All sizes of batteries from small cars to mega storage are still having major problems. Tesla Powerpacks at Neoen wind farm in Hornsdale
  23. 2 points
    Ha Ha, speaking of black, the local Aboriginals will be most grateful for the employment opportunities involved mainly in keeping the glass clean. We have a lot of "black tape" here, especially in Western Australia, so I suspect the hydrogen plant there may not have got full approval on this basis. Perhaps due to lack of sufficient Australian control/participation in the financing and ownership, not sure. Then there is the problem with the Ammonia competing with Aussie LNG and coal which is what Jay is hinting at. As I say, not sure as to the motivation behind the decision, especially when our PM is touting the H2 industry. I certainly don't believe our govt wants to give control of vast tracts of land to foreign companies, has already become a hot political potato regarding foreign ownership of cattle stations. That is my best guess, lack of majority Aussie ownership causing a political problem.
  24. 2 points
    Evergrande? rough seas ahead, sailors take warning. In my book , all bets are off. Evergrande is causing a giant market upheaval in China which will cause a downturn in China...Recession in China ......more than likely. The effect on all commodities is already happening. Oil and Gas will get hit in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Dollar will stay strong Prices for Iron ore down sharply in the past 2 weeks from fastmarkets Paul Lim September 21, 2021 08:39 GMT Singapore Plunging iron ore prices, Evergrande and the global steel supply chain The collapse of the iron ore market and market turbulence over Chinese property developer Evergrande Group are adding to the economic woes caused by the Delta variant of Covid-19 for much of this year. It is hard to find bright sparks in the months ahead for the ferrous supply chain, which has been buffeted repeatedly in a short span of few months, starting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's comments on overheated commodity markets and promises of stronger action on "questionable market practices" in July. Iron ore crash The Chinese government’s move of extending pollution controls and steel production caps across China is causing iron ore to flirt dangerously with the $80-per-tonne prices last seen in March 2020 not long after Covid-19 first broke out. This has reduced the value of iron ore to just a fraction of that for coking coal and ferrous scrap – complementary steelmaking raw materials in blast furnaces and electric-arc furnaces. Iron ore prices have fallen to just 1/6 of those for coking coal and 1/5 of those for scrap.
  25. 2 points
    That mess was the fault of federal rules that forced banks to lend to unqualified buyers. Then the banks were able to package and sell the deeds to others. The market prices of homes went up because of the easy lending so even qualified buyers suffered. I think that the National Park Service and National Forests are underfunded and woefully managed. I have been to Yellowstone and every National Park and many of the smaller ones. Many National Forests also. My objections are: Very poor forestry used in the national forests allowing the fires we have seen. This is mainly due to political pressure to keep the forest floors natural. Nature allows forests to burn until they burn out or it rains. Good forestry keeps space between trees by cleaning up the forest floor to some extent and thinning out overgrowth of small trees allowing good specimens to flourish. It is much more attractive but not natural. Natural is non nearly as attractive as a parklike, hikeable, and beautiful landscape. Natural can be kept in rainforests where the likelyhood of fires is very low. It is beautiful in Olympic National Park. You can see a row of new trees on a fallen giant behemoth tree. National Forests are for multiple use. That includes about whatever they decide can happen there. That is influenced by politics. Forests should be used for growing timber to market but saving the most beautiful stands of old growth and the areas surrounding trails, lakes etc. I do not support clear cutting large areas but support checkerboard cutting which is very supportive of deer and other wildlife. Immediate new tree planting should take place. Forty years later ( or whatever is appropriate) then they are harvested again. I think that all of the national forest should be accessible but think that sometimes ranchers think they own the area where they are allowed to graze their livestock and it should be understood that it is not their land, it belongs to the public. National Parks are almost all overcrowded without enough parking places anywhere in the parks. Not enough access to trails due to not enough parking. Forcing people to take busses to see the parks. Not enough roads so that people not able to backpack can't really see much. Dogs not allowed on the trails. Both National Parks and Forests crowd campers into one spot at a time until jammed full so you end up bing crowded into a little forest ghetto. Lately everyone has to wear a mask near anyone else. The rangers do a good job overall but the leaders at the top do not really want to open things up to the public which has a population ten times larger than when the system was set up and everyone now has a car. Time to help the owners of the parks and forests get better access!
  26. 2 points
    China can go FUCK THEMSELFS, They started out making the cheapest shit in the market place, When they were allowed in to the WTO they got serious and started stealing IP from private companies and government’s! I sincerely hope that the population rises up and crush’s these assholes! The small group at the top enriches themselves at the expense of their population! They break international laws and agreements daily and bait the poorest of Countries with their Belt and Road program!
  27. 2 points
    If you agree with the idea of robo taxi taking over most transportation there will be thousands of parking spaces that will not be needed. Distributed greenhouses with hydroponics in those spaces could take care of a lot of problems. Pollution to boot. A changed urban landscape.
  28. 2 points
    I lost 35 by cutting carbs to 20 a day and eating one meal a day. I eat 1200-1400 calories in that meal. I count everything. Nutrition is important. So like 6 pecans, 6 strawberries, 8 small olives, 2 eggs, two tablespoons jalapeño, one med avocado, 18/cup onion bell pepper and tomato. Add a 8 oz steak and that’s it for the day.
  29. 2 points
    MMT only applies to the world reserve currency, currently the US dollar.
  30. 2 points
    You full of …….. hehe. You know OPEC controls oil prices and has for decades. Just until recently nat gas prices were very low. Adding all those export terminals made nat gas in the US a global commodity instead of a N America market. Now you paying the world price. If Biden cut exports to foreigners tomorrow the price of nat gas would drop so fast you dirty your drawers. This was your Republican plan all along. Now own it.
  31. 2 points
    LFP has a much lower thermal potential ????? what is lower thermal potential....never heard of the term before?? do you mean a lower overpotential???? I did my grad work in Electrochemisty and on a daily basis worked with the inefficiencies of electrochemical reactions in reversible scans done on PAR eguipment (standard equipment used in electrochem research). In other words to understand a reaction you ran it in both directions (reversed the polarity repetitively at really high speeds and watched to see if any unwanted side reactions are occurring which shows up in overpotential losses (heat) and formation of other products on the cathodes /anodes ie gassing oxygen or hydrogen, insouluble products .. complex metal products etc.. For your info overpential is ...... the potential difference (voltage) between a half-reaction's thermodynamically determined reduction potential and the potential at which the redox event is experimentally observed.[1] The term is directly related to a cell's voltage efficiency. In an electrolytic cell the existence of overpotential implies the cell requires more energy than thermodynamically expected to drive a reaction. In a galvanic cell the existence of overpotential means less energy is recovered than thermodynamics predicts. In each case the extra/missing energy is lost as heat. The quantity of overpotential is specific to each cell design and varies across cells and operational conditions, even for the same reaction. Overpotential is experimentally determined by measuring the potential at which a given current density (typically small) is achieved. Jay , lower thermal potential. ???? you got me on that one
  32. 2 points
    Right so when we have hundreds of fossil fuel plants and a couple explode or burn we can say "odds are with that many plants we'll have a few failures". How many battery installations are there? Not nearly as many. So, statistically, they have a higher failure rate than fossil fuel plants. I mean, I'm sure they'll iron out the issues eventually, but it doesn't seem rational to act like fossil fuel plants are in the same fail rate category.
  33. 2 points
    quote:" The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for either the large-scale ice age periods or the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age. The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on Earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.[57][citation needed]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Causes it might mean " variation of solar output, impact of large meteorites on earth (which might have created huge mass of dust), and volcanic eruptions of supervolcanoes (which created huge mass of ash etc) " could be the direct reasons? the sky was clouded from sun due to large amount of ash and dust etc + reduction of solar output and changes of Earth's location...... ==> temperature turned really cold ==> ice age? carbon dioxide might be a by product, but might have no direct relation with the cooling? If it was found in large amount after ice age to indicate it is a culprit of warming, this relation might be misleading? Could it be just an after math of , or left over from, the former disaster??
  34. 2 points
    That is what happens when you trust the Russians for your energy. They are using blackmail to raise prices, pretending to not have it all of a sudden!
  35. 2 points
    Like massive inflation that destroy the middle class and make the rich richer.
  36. 2 points
    There probably will be distribution upgrades required in many "older" areas to accommodate EV charging. Same thing happened with the popular rise of AC. It ain't all that expensive, though. Typically distribution transformer replacements if voltage droops at customer premises. Some older fossil plant sites could be used for new modular nuclear with enough foresight. Those sites already have the water, transportation access, and even plant/transmission equipment that could be reused.
  37. 2 points
    I am not an investment guru but believe that the Woke corporations will not be the main factor in deciding what energy sources are used around the world. I think that, over time, the most cost efficient and abundant fuels and energy sources will win and keep market share. I really don't think that corporations should aim for exorbitant profits, but for good steady profits over the long term. They should not be given sizeable incentives to take over industries because governments and NGO's think that they should decide how the world works. That is statism, not free enterprise.
  38. 2 points
    So when NS II is finally finished lets make some trolling against European Union energy policy. Maybe yes from poor relation but someone who is actually making bilions on this current policy. The European Union is like a child. It banned Gazprom from using 50% of Nord Stream. II. There has to be another independent gas supplier than Gazprom. Well, the Russians took note of it and will probably allow Rosneft to eventually export gas to Europe from the beginning of 2022. It is worth emphasizing that BP (British Petroleum) has almost 20% of shares in Rosneft. The CEO of Rosneft is a former high-ranking KGB officer and Putin's advisor, Igor Siechin. Close confidant and very powerful former security officer- for sure indepent CEO as hell. ISuch people are called stoligarchs in Russia - not a oligarch because he is not a owner of Rosneft but stoligarch - very powerful CEO of actually second biggest oil producer in the world (Rosneft oil production is about 4-5 milion barrels per day dependent we have OPEC+ production cut or not) Something about stoligarchs from bussiness english press - good one https://www.intellinews.com/meet-the-stoligarchs-putin-s-pals-who-control-a-fifth-of-the-russian-economy-99918/ The entire collective West wanted it, and it brought traded spot futures and all this financial engineering to the gas market. The market is supposed to be determined by global spot LNG prices like HH, TTF or JKM, but not some long-term crude oil-based contracts The Americans, of course, wanted to fight with Russian gas just like but 3 notes: 1) Gazprom is sometimes called the Saudi Arabia gas market - the largest and by far the cheapest cost producer when it comes to production costs - a player on the market with such a colossus, even the West cannot play games because Gazprom's market power is huge. You can call him today as swing producer more acurately than probably Saudi Arabia after shale oil revolution. 2) Every sensible hard-hitting person who is a little interested in how this world actually works knows very well that where once speculators and this crazy traders of all types finally get in, it will always be more expensive than it would be if these players / speculators were not there 3) The result disadvantaged gas users are traders and gas producers. Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) Tweeted: Oil has flat-lined since June, but the rest of the energy complex is on fire: WTI ~$70 a barrel Brent ~$73 a barrel TTT gas ~$18 per mBtu (all time high) LNG: ~$20 per mBtu (seasonal record high) Newcastle coal >$170 a tonne (13-year high) EU power >€110 per MWh (highest ever) So finally some trollling from yesterday as end of NS II saga But if you dont like trolling maybe bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000
  39. 2 points
    Uh, dummy here... Quizzle me puzzled, but I thought China already had $40B in Venezuela... waiting... waiting... waiting to be paid back. Der google overlords say $20B still to be paid back... And most of that "payback" period was China taking said Ven cargo's across the Gulf to TX and selling Ven oil to the USA while China pocketed the difference... Of course that ended a while ago so... Are you saying, ANOTHER major round?.... Did not China just ~loan $400B to Iran? At 10Mbpd imported and climbing as their northern oil fields are nearly gone, and Malyasia's oil is disappearing... China needs ~200Million tons annually and growing. Panama canal can take new Panamax ships and its yearly tonnage just jumped to 450Million tons, pulling in $2.6B in revenue, so technically..... only another ~Billion or so in tolls + whatever you "lend" Venezuela to get the thick goey stuff home. Uh, now what? Who has enough light sweet crude to mix that stuff with?(USA and no one else?, what is Russia's API? Gulf does not have it) I suppose China could go even larger into refining thick goey stuff, but have they even started that refinery process yet? So, yes, the capacity through Panama exists, but then what? It is heavy thick oil. Buy lots and lots of USA oil is pretty much the only solution and well...
  40. 2 points
    Shhhhhhhhh, thought we all agreed to keep this under wraps until the unveiling on 9/11.
  41. 2 points
    Enbridge is a pipeline company, not an oil company. They move product to customers that need it from producers that sell it. The only thing they force is the price they charge for the service. Most shareholders hold it for the dividends they live off. drivel indeed!
  42. 2 points
  43. 2 points
    Tell me who wins in Sept. The SD's will build additional LNG. CDP held power during GAZPROM I and II.
  44. 2 points
    ...and that's JUST THE TRANSPORT!
  45. 2 points
    That appears to be a failure resulting from a periodic overspeed test of the steam turbine. Or the steam turbine's generator breaker was opened with steam flow still being admitted (such as by "stuck" steam valves). Those failures are normally contained in the casings. Could also be from a rotor forging failure. Typically THOSE failures produce missiles. Never stand to the sides of the machine during overspeed testing.
  46. 2 points
    The Fiasco is shared by all, including all of us.
  47. 2 points
    Just another case of a MAGA moron spewing BS that you fall for hook line and sinker. Douglas county voted overwhelmingly for Trump and there has been no massive decrease in the voter rolls since the primary as claimed by the article. https://cltr.douglasnv.us/elections/ The article is specifically claiming that the school board members can't be recalled because there aren't enough people left on the voter roles. "It seems 82% of voters who voted in 2020 have suddenly “disappeared” off the rolls. Either the Covid plague + Trail of Tears devastated the population of Douglas County in the past year, or each and every Democrat ballot was scanned an average of 10-20 times, blowing the total vote count so high that 100% of the current voters now make up 16.3% of the “official” 2020 primary election vote count.This makes recalling these public officers (A2S9 Recall of Public Officers) mathematically impossible against Douglas County School District incumbents who won unopposed in primary elections. In order to recall any Nevadan Politician, we need 25% of the people that voted to sign a petition…which is impossible because only 16.8% of the eligible voters are still “there.” Douglas County has OFFICIALLY LOST THEIR RIGHT TO RECALL ANY OF THEIR PUBLIC OFFICERS." As shown below the number of people who voted in the primary for school board was about 14,700. Total number of voters in the election were 18,297 out of 38,357 registered at that time. The current number of registered voters, also shown below, is approx 43,000. Current voter roll: https://cltr.douglasnv.us/elections/
  48. 2 points
    Sure - here (USA) we used to have trains to take everyone everywhere too. thing is, once you get a critical mass of roads and automobiles set up, and a critical minimum level of wealth for people to use automobiles, the trains are worthless because they are slower, less direct, and don't connect enough different places together. Train tracks or only theoretically cheaper IF you can force people to use them. This can be done if you make everyone in the area so poor that they cannot afford better options, but people prefer speed, convenience and flexibility to trains. You have to force them to use trains in one way or another. The percieved cost savings aren't worth it. Even assuming your cost numbers are correct (trust me they aren't) once a society has enough extra wealth to spend $ 1million per person on cars over their lifetimes they will. It's that much more useful. We could save money by banning washing machines too, and making people use rocks by the river, but that's obviously so much worse to deal with that nobody wants to do it (ok maybe some radical greens would like to) Switching from cars to trains is just as bad a decision.
  49. 2 points
    I am trying to be a realist, historic and prehistoric droughts have been worse and we have no way of knowing what will happen. We must use rational thinking. IMHO that includes ending watering grass and letting water run down the street. It also means agriculture must not waste water if it wants to continue to operate. That means indoor agriculture, drip irrigation, saving soil moisture from evaporation etc. Far more water is wasted than is used for high priority needs. Any rational analysis of water usage will show that. If the precipitation goes up for several years, policies can change. Next year will be crucial, but the current trend will not allow for agriculture and municipal water usage to function as it has in the past, period. I am very familiar with the West. It is not like the rest of the country. They are still working on ground water, as if there is no drought, in many places. The only other remedy that will be cost effective is piping water from the closest available rivers and paying the areas, from which it is taken. That will take a lot of time. Water conservation is the best answer for now.
  50. 2 points
    Let me explain it straight to you. Germany will receive 110 billion 3 billion of the cheapest Russian gas directly without intermediaries. They will use up some of this NG and with their Energewendie policy of abandoning coal and nuclear power over the next several years gas consumption will increase. What they do not consume, they will distribute to Central and Eastern Europe with additional excess margin of an intermediary and also as the largest gas hub in Europe. They will consolidate without war with economic means what they were striving for and triggered for World War I and World War II - the plan of the so-called Mitteleuropa, i.e. Central European economies and vasal-countries cooperating with Germany as sub-suppliers of rich Germany. They will cash the entire Central Europe on margin, so. they will earn easy money even without having a material product. In the end, they will be the only customer that pays Russia the entire fee for 110 billion m3 so lets say some USD 30 billion $. What will Russia do with this money - the same thing like always so in exchange for the commodities sold to germany , they will buy industrial machinery, cars, trucks, or everything that the German industry has in excess and is looking for a market. With all due respect, anyone who thinks that it is not in the German core national interest is really very stupid, so let everyone cry on Twitter with chicks because everyone would try to make such a golden deal as if they only had the opportunity to do so. The USA finally decided that Germany was their main partner in Europe and needed Germany on its side and also at least a little more neutral Russia in the conflict with China, so the end of the whole battle was obvious.