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  1. 14 points
    The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways. Meanwhile his actions, and that of the entire government are being lied about by almost all of the mainstream media sources. They are guilty for much of the stock market losses and scare mongering going on. It is born out of the same desperation that the motivated the attempts to overthrow him since even before he was nominated and finally the phony attempt at impeachment. These lies are just more of the same.
  2. 12 points
    ^ I'm a baby boomer. A lifelong runner. A mountain climber. A biker. And wouldn't you know it, I contracted a bad disease a few years back that left me with only one functioning lung. So, at age seventy-five, I'm in the highest risk category. If this gets really awful, and I present to the ER with say 120 other C-virus victims, I'm going to get triaged to the parking lot. And I'm okay with that. I'm not suicidal and very few people appreciate life more than I, but I think if we come out of this with our same bloated population of elderly people (all that 90 is the new 50 bullshit) and a badly damaged economy, we're in a world of hurt. 90% of Medicare is spent in the last year of a person's life, 25% in the last month. I've had a good run. Most of us have. Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren. And that's paramount for most of us.
  3. 11 points
    MbS is a little boy who never was told no. Putin probably told him that it wasn't feasible for them to turn down production in Siberia, and he didn't take it well and three a hissy fit. The point is patience: with time, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will go bankrupt. People are telling him that, as best they can. When you have a guy like that in charge of about 50% of the world's oil, you get messes like this. Again, this isn't Putin's doing. This is on MbS. He is a child. I doubt he lives to be an old man. With his foolish act he has harmed some very important people very badly.
  4. 11 points
    Guys, The OPEC members are national oil companies, the Russian firms are also essentially national oil companies. That said, cuts can be mandated by the government. The companies in the US are independent from the government. If the government tried to impose a cut, not only would it be ignored, it would be illegal (price fixing). You are trying to compare apples to oranges.
  5. 10 points
    Business as usual, 2004. The USA was importing 16 million bbls per day and barely producing 4 mbbl / day. We were deep in the throes of Hubbert's Peak and financial types were straining to figure out what the new opium needed to be to entice our enemies to continue providing oil to us for pieces of paper we simply printed. 16 years later, we've blown a massive hole in that 16 mbbl per day import stream mainly because of light, tight oil. And those from foreign countries who used to export to the US are complaining that we aren't still importing! Whether or not the US exported oil, the gap in demand is there. Question: Where is it written that the USA should beggar its own people to enhance profits for foreign countries, many of whom despise the US?
  6. 9 points
    I used to spend a lot of time on oildrum.com which has since gone radio silent. Why is that? Because for years and against all relevant data, they were playing the drumbeat that oil production was guaranteed to fall, forever. I was arguing that technology was bound to come along to change that outcome and eventually one of the moderators got sick of me always being right and banned me. One of the founders of the oildrum site came to my defense and the moderator banned him. Because liberals hate to lose, and denying you the right to speak (they believe) denies you the ability to be right. The site quickly fell apart after that. Yes America is oil addicted, as is the rest of the world. Not only that, there are nations who would love to be even more addicted, they just can't afford the stuff. Furthermore as I've already proven, the lie that the US was consuming 20 million bbls per day was just that, false. We were shipping out 4 million bbls per day of refined goods, and that doesn't even include the plastics, fertilizers and pharma products made here and shipped abroad. We were "consuming" 25% of the world's petroleum and "producing" 25% of the world's GDP. Coincidence? I don't think so. The world's economy floats on a sea of oil. We only think we've seen a depression. Take away oil and we're in Mad Max land.
  7. 9 points
    Let me guess. By your logic Trump is at fault. Nothing to do with MBS or Putin or CV or anything, it's all on Trump. Question: Have you figured out how to pour piss out of your boots with the directions written on the heels?
  8. 9 points
    Hoping warm weather brings relief. BUT NOBODY HONESTLY KNOWS. XI JINPING MUST END VIRUS DATA SECRECY. After the Spanish Flu mutated it became extremely virulent. It subsided and re-emerged in three waves and lasted more than a year. Killed between 50 million to 100 million. Vaccines not discovered yet. (1) Spanish Flu first recorded in March 1918. Very contagious. Deaths resulted. (2) By July 1918 the flu abated. All was good. All clear. (3) August 1918 the Second Wave of a MUTATED Spanish Flu appeared and was both contagious and exceedingly deadly. (4) Third wave , also a mutation, started November 1918. Not as deadly as 2nd wave, but more than the first wave. This continued until Spring 1919. Some reports say still killed until 1920. Don't think it can't happen again ? Better to be prepared. ALL THE MORE REASON CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY (CCP) NEEDS TO PUT ITS PRIDE ASIDE AND WORK WITH ALL THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS Chinese nationalist pride comes before the life of their own people. U.S. CDC repeated requests for data to help develop vaccine has been turned down or ignored. The Chinese have not let the WHO (World Health Organization) visit the infected area. The Chinese have not let U.S. CDC top viral scientist into their country. There is a 3 person resident CDC office in Beijing that Chinese will not share important data. The only viral sample the U.S. has is from the Seattle patient. The U.S. does not know if the virus has mutated. They do not know how long the virus lives outside of the body. How long it survives on wood vs stainless steel vs etc. SARS is in the same RNA virus family (as opposed to DNA) as COV-19. SARS had a 9.6 % fatality rate. That is because it was limited to northeast region in China. For some reason this population did not have an immunity. That's why world needs all demographical data and statistics from from China. Timely data reduces death rate. Some U.S. scientist think it can be transmitted airborne. It appears to be quite easily transmittable. THE CHINESE COMMUNIST HARDLINER NATIONALIST ARE INSISTENT THAT CHINA MUST DEVELOP THE VACCINE. NOT U.S. THE CCP PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE YESTERDAY STATING , " THE VIRUS DID NOT ORIGINATE IN CHINA" Bull In the meantime President Trump has spoken to Xi Jinping three times trying to solicit more cooperation while not insulting their sensitivity which could trigger even greater secrecy. There are groups within Chinese Medical and Scientific community that want to work with outside organizations. But the CCP RULES. CCP forcing some factories to go back online. Imagine what this virus is doing to their economy. Could be premature and cost thousands of additional lives. CCP hope and a pray for warmer weather end of April that cures what ails them. The Spanish flu lasted 14 months. SARS lasted 9 months. We all hope the virus ends soon Xi Jinping can end this secrecy . He should act immediately. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/02/19/coronavirus_more_proof_china_is_unfit_for_global_role.html
  9. 9 points
    KSA hasn't been an ally since the late 60's. When they figured out we were so dependent on their flow of oil along with the rest of the Arab Nations they started tightening the screw to us. Remember when a lot of gas station ran out of gas in 73? I sure do!!!! They've tried to hurt us many times. Just remember how many Saudi's were flying them planes the morning of 9/11. I would never trust them, or Iran, Iraq.....and so on. They despise the US. Trump I am sure realizes their nature. He is surrounded with good generals.
  10. 9 points
    Spring is coming, it's getting warmer and the MSM will get bored and move on to something else. Do you remember the days where actual journalists travelled to bring you the news and didn't just pop on to twitter and reuters to regurgitate the same crap talking points? Good days indeed
  11. 9 points
    The Oil Wars Are Going Viral by Peter Zeihan on March 9, 2020 We just had the second-biggest oil price drop on record as Asian markets opened March 8. For the past couple of weeks the Saudis have been attempting to cobble together an oil production cut of about 1.5 million barrels per day. As of last Friday, they had been sufficiently successful to get buy-in from the bulk of both OPEC and non-OPEC members, but there was one niggling hold out: Russia. On March 7 any pretense of a deal collapsed and the Saudis committed to flooding the market. First, they lowered their asking prices for crude being shipped to Europe and Asia. Second, they announced plans to quickly ramp up output from some of their spare capacity. There was a hilarious day-long window where the Russian propaganda machine seized control of the narrative and fooled a host of financial reporters into proclaiming that Russia was going to war with the U.S. shale industry. It is difficult to delineate just how incredulous such a claim is since U.S. shale output has a lower production cost than Russian crude, but hey, people fall for propaganda allll the time. The primary reason I laughed when I read those breathless headlines is that the Russians couldn't launch a price war even if they wanted to do so. The problem is all about location. Much of Russian production happens on difficult land that can turn swampy in the summer and freeze solid during the winter. If those wells are shut-in, particularly during the winter, the risk of well damage (up to and including explosions!) is high. In the truly frozen sections of Russia, when the time comes to restart production, you can't just turn them back on. You must re-drill them. In winter. Likely the following winter. Russia has never cut production on purpose. Its “cuts” in 2019 were nothing more than some seasonal maintenance. The last time the Russians actually reduced output it was the Soviet collapse. It then took Russia nearly two decades to get back to where they had been. Much of Russia’s power in the world, triply so in Europe, has to do with energy politics. The Continent counts Russia as one of its top three energy suppliers in any given year, and with the Brits now out of the EU that dependency will increase. Moscow (rightly) sees the American shale patch as a threat to that influence and so has sought to use propaganda to thwart the sector where possible, up to and including bankrolling some American environmental groups to lambast shale (ask Michael Moore and Jill Stein for details). And at least to a degree, some of the Russian scuttlebutt on all things oil and shale are correct. The Russians supposedly have been ranting of late that the last round of Russian/OPEC oil output cuts in 2019 simply provided more market share for American shale to fill. That’s totally what happened. Anywho, the Saudis made the reason for their moves crystal clear late March 8, saying they would compete for market share at every point they can reach where the Russians currently sell their oil, with the intent of underbidding any Russian offers. Saudi Arabia is nearly unique in that it can turn production on and off on a three-month time scale. Most other countries can't, and certainly not the Russians. In fact, the only oil production zone in the world that can adjust faster than Saudi Arabia is…the American shale patch, where new wells can come online in under six weeks, and where depletion rates are measured in months rather than years. We’re already scraping the $30 a barrel level. That’s the number where about two-thirds of U.S. shale operators find themselves crying themselves to sleep at night. Even worse (or better based on your point of view), oil prices are likely to remain lower for longer. The first reason is the most obvious: Courtesy of the spreading coronavirus epidemic, best guess is nearly half of the Chinese workforce is still off-line this week, and much of China’s industrial plant remains shut-down due to quarantine efforts – most notably in the industrial heartlands of the Yangtze Valley and the Pearl River Delta. China is undoubtedly going to suffer a real recession this year, which will absolutely impact manufacturing supply chains as well as the supply of consumer products globally in the second and third quarters. Chinese oil demand has probably dropped about 2 million barrels per day. Avoiding additional widespread infections throughout the rest of China is probably statistically impossible at this point, and it is spreading globally like, well, a virus. Iran, Italy, Switzerland and South Korea have robust epidemics that have erupted in just the past two weeks. Follow-on epidemics are all but certain in France, Germany, the United States, Canada and, well, nearly everywhere else later this month and into April. The virus tends to hit less harshly than a cold in 6 out of 7 cases and is not particularly lethal if you are under age 70 and otherwise healthy, so CALM DOWN, but for everyone’s sake follow normal sanity about exposure and hygiene. Following sanity means less movement and travel and interaction and since oil is the fuel of transport, that means less oil gets used. Everywhere. The second reason is more…colorful. Riyadh and Moscow have rarely gotten along, with their biggest big blow-up occurring at the instigation of none other than Ronald Reagan. In the mid-1980s the Saudis expanded oil output in order to wreck the overextended finances of the Soviet Union. It was part of a collage of factors which heralded the Soviet collapse. With the Russians increasingly active in Iran and Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan, the Saudis have plenty of reasons to dust off an old tool and whap the Russians on the face. The third reason is more…personal. With the Americans stepping back from the world, the Saudis are finding themselves facing off against the Iranians without the American buffer between them. The Trump administration’s anti-Iranian sanctions are strangling the Iranian economy, an economy that survives on oil exports. Shrinking what little income Iran is still getting via a price war isn’t a dumb move. The fourth reason is simple economics. Saudi Arabia is annoyed not simply by Iran and Russia, but other oil producers which range from Venezuela to Ecuador to Libya to Nigeria to Angola to Norway to Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan to…American shale. Saudi Arabia has lower production costs than them all. Anything that takes the snuff out of the competition is something that’ll make the Saudis smile. Of all of these, U.S. shale will bounce back fastest, but there will be a lot of bankruptcies and consolidation between here and there. Other countries will face outcomes far more painful. The final reason is less about economics and local strategy and more about resetting Saudi Arabia’s position in the world. The Syrian Civil War is in its final chapter. The Iranians and Russians are on the winning side…while the Saudis are on the losing side. If Russian-Saudi relations are already deteriorating, it doesn’t take much of a push for the Saudis to remind the Russians (and everyone else) that there is another field of competition – one in which the Saudis excel and the Russians (and everyone else) do not.
  12. 8 points
    And someone will blame Trump, or say the US was unprepared, because we didn’t keep a warehouse stocked with 100,000 ventilators!
  13. 8 points
    I suggest an argument as to why any of that has anything to do with reality. There is no future without fossil fuels powering a very large chunk of it. Renewables will only work if the entirety of humanity moves to the wind corridors and the dry sun belts where you can't grow food. 90% of the densely inhabited geographies on the planet can not provide enough wind or solar power to ever cover all the energy needs. There will eventually be an electrogas and hydrogen industry that will be built where steady sun and wind make it very cheap though far from populations that can use it. So we will be burning those and gas to liquids synthetic liquid fuel. But the displacement of fossil fuels is a genocidal psychopath's pipedream. It means half the world's population would die. Decarbonization is not a legitimate goal and will not create a change in climate trends on its own.. The climate "science" is questionable and relies on fake data. The error bands on calculated outcomes are too big to guide us towards anything once you remove the fake data.
  14. 8 points
    Dear Frank, I like China as I do all countries. It’s political systems that are the problem. But hey, that didn’t stop me from buying a 65” from China recently. Take a chill pill and cheer the dissidents from Hong Kong and Taiwan. May all Asians break the chains of Authoritative governments.
  15. 8 points
    you cannot be serious? there is no global warming, and no catastrophe coming...if this is your belief, why be on an oil forum? and what are you doing for your part? do you drive a car? on highways? house? toothpaste, clothes, little fancy electronics? i will guess yes to all of the above....so nothing, yet you believe the hype? now, the real question...are you in agreement with biden that in this "climatic emergency" 😂😂 millions should lose their jobs??
  16. 8 points
    Is it really Trump’s, or the government’s, job to protect the American shale oil industry (I believe that this is what we are talking about) from itself? Many seem to be blaming the Saudi’s or the Russian’s for the present price collapse while totally ignoring the fact that the US shale oil industry showed absolutely no restraint, pumped unchecked into an already flooded market and reaped any benefit from any OPEC+ production cut. Nobody ever took any serious action to dry up the glut. Everyone knew they were flooding an already saturated market. There is plenty of blame to go around! Quit whining and start figuring out how to rectify the situation! Finger pointing and bitching won’t get it done! The shale oil industry ‘sowed’ the wind and are now ‘reaping the whirlwind’.
  17. 8 points
    US economy absolutely need to be energy independent and I fully support that. A global superpower cannot import some 10 million barrels a day because it threat for national security and good reason for many bloody interventions all over the world after WW2.. This does not mean however, that it must produce oil and gas at a loss or with very little profit like crazy at quite low price with an increase of 2 million barrels as in 2018 alone. I am absolutely in favor of the US producing more and more of oil and gas - I really don't mind. Only dear US colleagues with all respect you should increase your oil and gas production at a reasonable pace and not flood oil ad gas and destroy the whole energy market by producing it with very little profit or even a loss If only because it is still really unknown for exacly how many years, with such a crazy increase you have enough resources I may be wrong, but this is probably the unofficial position of Russia and Saudi Arabia for last decade and they are simple desperate because of shale madness I will quote Anas Alhajji from Saudi Arabia working both at US mining university and also for Saudi Aramco
  18. 8 points
    I'm not stalking you. But I do use the Moderator Control Panel to ban spammers, check IP addresses for sock puppet abuse, dig around in unusual behavior by members. All done invisibly, behind the scenes. This forum has been hit repeatedly lately by spammers from China. I know this because I can use the "IP Address Tools" function in the Site Moderation control panel to see where the spammers are posting from. These ^ are all normal moderator tools used on forums. Moderating a forum is mostly cleanup work, done behind the scenes. Moderator cleanup should mostly remain invisible to most forum members. For example, responding to complaints in private messages sent to moderators, banning spammers as soon as we see them, adjudicating disputes or upsets between members, issuing warnings privately for a member for breaking forum rules, etc. The visible part of moderator duties, that forum members can see, is for example when a moderator makes a public comment in a thread, advising people in the thread to calm down during a dispute, and if that doesn't work, lock a thread so things don't escalate. Your claim above that China has not withheld information is patently absurd, in my opinion. While pretty much the rest of the world is not amused that CCP tried mightily to cover up the Coronavirus in the early stages in order to "Save Face" and appear "In Control" you apparently want to praise the CCP, and claim it is a lie that CCP withheld information. Good luck pushing that narrative. And you are free to accuse me of bias as a moderator. And I remain unconcerned by your concern. I'm not new to forums, and have been a moderator on forums for more than 5 years. I'm certainly not perfect and I do make mistakes and clearly I am indeed very biased. But my bias is open and not hidden. Anyone who can't figure out my general stance on the topics of oil & gas and its intertwined global politics is not paying attention. Indeed, I frequently use hyperbole to highlight my own very strong pro - oil & gas biases, to sledgehammer my points. And as a moderator, I try to allow others to do the same with expressing their biases and opinions. And as always, you are free to complain about me to the Site Admin if you so choose. Mostly I'm here to have fun and joke around and post sh*tty memes for amusement and chew the fat about global oil & gas and poke fun at crazy politics. Your mileage may vary. / edit P.S. when I am signed in, as a moderator, the IP address of every member is shown by default in every comment. For example here is my comment, although I hid my IP address in this screencap:
  19. 7 points
    If I ever start to feel worried I listen to your President and obvious my own PM who might have got off to a bad start but I think he is following Trumps lead to a degree especially after recently announcing they will re-evaluate the partial lock-down we have in place in just 3 weeks time (similar to Trump's plan). You guys have an amazing president (probably the best for decades), he has a very calming effect and shows true leadership. There is still massive panic and people spreading fake stories about what you can and cannot do but maybe that was needed for the less intelligent to start listening and stop overcrowding the shops and going on holiday etc making things worse. I've lost all my work now for the forseable future but strangely I feel very positive. I think this virus will pass as will the hysteria and once the medical services get the extra support they need the restrictions on what people can do will be lifted. I've snoozed anyone on facebook who posts anything about this virus, I have stopped paying attention to the hysterical media who gleefully report each and every death to gain clicks. I've started on the garden now the weather is nice and started to think about ways to improve my health after years of severe stress and worry caused by the volatile oil industry. Now they are getting a handle on the virus and economy I have full faith they're going to work on rebalancing the oil market whether it be by carrot or stick. US energy independence is not a gift that should be thrown away. Best of wishes to all of you including those that will not agree with me. I am sure things will get better eventually.
  20. 7 points
    President Trump hopes to reopen the economy by Easter if possible. We now have treatments and plenty of equipment that can be used. We need to throw all our resources at the critically ill but most patients will recover on their own and without hospitalization. The aged need to stay home but the rest need to get back to work as soon as possible. Otherwise we will have more damage to our economy than it can take. One is as important as the other in keeping us all healthy physically, mentally, economically, and emotionally.
  21. 7 points
    "This is another example of inane finger pointing" Meredith, not inane finger pointing . The CCP after failing act as a responsible nation of the world, covering up the virus and responsible for unleashing this scourge on the world HAD THE BALLS TO SAY THE VIRUS WAS STARTED BY THE U.S. MILITARY. That can not be left unanswered. You probably will say nobody will believe that, but millions believed Congressman Schiff's Russian propaganda hoax. IT'S QUITE SIMPLE. THE SECRECY AND OBFUSCATIONS BY THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP LEAD TO A WORLD PANDEMIC AND WHAT COULD WELL BE A WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT. THEY COULD HAVE STOPPED THIS IN ITS TRACKS BACK IN DECEMBER . CORRECT, THE FINGER IS POINTED AT THEM . The U.S Dow is down 10,000 pts (and going lower) and you say the market was overpriced anyway or many governments mishandled the crisis. What world do you live in ? Hard to fathom people making excuses for China. CHINA CAUSED THIS , HID THIS AND LIED ABOUT IT FROM THE BEGINNING.
  22. 7 points
    As a doctor, I find myself in an awkward position of wondering if you're right about that. Why? Because the FDA is the slowest-moving body politic in the world. Left to their own devices, they'd supervise clinical trials on this until we run out of still-viable human beings to test. Z-pack is a third-rate, overused antibiotic and Chloroquine is an ancient drug. But my gosh, we have decades of experience with both of them; each one causes some side-effects but not much against the backdrop of a pandemic of this nature. Here's the thing: if you're headed for a ventilator, dying, and you had the option of taking these two approved drugs for the off-label use of maybe preventing your death, would you go for it? I would too. And I strongly suspect if the current FDA head doesn't agree with allowing them to be used, he'll be replaced some time about the middle of the week by someone who will. Trump has used the bully pulpit on this because his people have told him that these two drugs are unlikely to kill anyone and quite possibly might save lives. If he waited for someone like Tony Fauci (as much as I respect Dr. Fauci) to say this, or the FDA chief, he'd never get it said.
  23. 7 points
    A universal basic income? I see a few problems here. Who determines the amount of the basic income? Who pays for it? Is some tribesman in Uganda guaranteed the same income as some student in Denmark? If Country A is paying into the global fund which is contributing to the payment of someone in Country B, does Country A automatically have a say in the economics of Country B? Do able bodied people, capable of working, but choose not to and who survive off of the dole or welfare systems in their respective countries qualify for this basic income? I think this idea of a ‘basic income’ reeks of socialism. If you can work, then you work and live within your means. If for some realistic reason you can not work, then each country should have a ‘safety net’, funded by THEIR citizens. The whole idea of a universal basic income is ludicrous and smells of unicorn farts.
  24. 7 points
    I think Putin understood that even a 1.5 million bbl cut would do nothing more than temporarily support oil price. Russia probably tried to force a deal in exchange for their cooperation Just like they received a sweetheart deal at the December OPEC meeting. Their condensate no longer counts as oil (1.4 mm bbls/day) Notice Russia's statements up to the actual meeting. "We're fine with these oil prices" , . . . "We can meet our budget obligations with oil (Brent) down to $42 ". . . . . "We will probably work with OPEC". These statement by Russia sounds like a wily horse trader. Russia definitely fishing for a deal. So don't count out a deal over the weekend. Russia wants a deal before they make a public statement about support. OPEC has no choice. The next question : Is OPEC+ DEAD ? or Is OPEC (without the +) DEAD or rendered ineffective. Re U.S. shale : The shale producers debt/loans are reviewed and adjusted/renewed/terminated twice a year. This takes place in APRIL and OCTOBER. Next month, April just might be the day (month) of reckoning. Yes, this downturn is related to a once in a lifetime event. Yes, oil price will eventually bounce back. By how much and when not sure. There is estimated $200 Billion high yield debt that could be decimated. What effect will that have on the U.S. economy ? I think the banks and bond holders will stop this never ending cycle of life support for small and medium producers that recklessly destroyed their balance sheets years ago when the margins were fat. Probably not going all come down in April. But will start in April. The required processes will begin and the Buyers will get their lists out. Could play out over six months to a year or more. Chevron, Conoco, Hess, Pioneer, Exxon get your checkbooks out
  25. 7 points
    Frankfurter, you are linking to the Global Research website? Heh heh, OK, I'll play. You are diving into areas of the web that I have played around in for a long time. I'll see your Pro-CCP / Anti-U.S. tin foil and raise you a Soros tin foil (that's a poker card game reference, if you are not familiar with the turn of phrase) - and - George Soros & Bill Gates Partner with China on Coronavirus Drug ... A year later we now have a Global Pandemic emerging from Mainland China and the Chinese are the holders of the patent for the treatment drug and they are also included in the United Nation’s UNITAID initiative that will see them benefit with lower drug pricing. Furthermore Gilead, a main supporter of UNITAID (39), has also announced that it is partnering with the Chinese Health Authorities on the clinical trials of Remdesivir as a treatment for coronavirus (5). And once approved, Gilead will retain the global rights to market the antiviral medication (3). UNITAID is the UN and this is bio-warfare, where they control the drugs. China did not steal Gilead’s patent; Gilead was a willing participant, they are even working with the Chinese government on clinical trials. The question remains, how will this impact western nations that are excluded from the acquisition of lower-priced treatment drugs? Will our economies be held hostage to Chinese imperialism? And has the coronavirus outbreak been the vehicle for George Soros, Bill Gates, and the United Nations to implement the New World Order? It sure look’s like it! Checkmate!
  26. 7 points
    ^This The whole reason we have the worldwide petrodollar is because of the devil's bargain Kissinger made with the Saudis after they'd royally screwed us, not once but twice. The "best minds" at our "intelligence" agencies were "certain" the US was on the downward slide off the King Hubbert curve and we'd be permanently printing pesos to perpetually purchase petroleum ad infinitum. That was the plan and everything from the 70's to the '10's was hinged on that plan. This includes Wars, terrorist attacks and market meltdowns (pre this current one). Then something horrible happened. Mitchell figured out a better way for gas, and Hamm followed suit with oil, and the new gold rush was on! Instead of bankrupting our grandchildren and their future to economic serfdom to the Middle East, we dramatically reduced purchases from there while dramatically increasing domestic production. The follow on effects of this were numerous and rarely enumerated: balance of payments improvements, stronger dollar, stronger PPP, better security, higher standard of living and on and on. But those geniuses in the CIA weren't happy with this. Their global chess game was turning into Go and they don't know how to play Go. Meanwhile the world's greatest chess players, the Russians didn't know how to deal with this brave new world either. They're all fighting back, including the CIA and the poor oil producers are in the cross hairs through no fault of their own. The market is being manipulated left and right but take a close look at gasoline prices and jet fuel and compare them to historical bbl spot pricing. The correlation is missing in action. Demand going lower should have driven end product pricing lower, which due to elasticity of supply and demand would increase demand (lower prices), eating up the greater supply.
  27. 7 points
    It is best explained by Chis Weafer from one of the best analytical centers on Russia's policy - Macro Advisory
  28. 7 points
    Very good point. And the free market system--much better than a rigged OPEC hanging onto Russia--will figure out the proper value for a barrel of crude oil. But damn it, I'm not going to give up on this, if the TRRC would just enforce Statewide Rule 32 on venting and flaring, this glut problem would be over. They are a lot of the problem, IMO.
  29. 7 points
    You read it upside down. After 5 centuries of Empire, the US is the dis-imperial force that broke them down and released the countries to independence from colonial oppression. The basic fact is that China as do all of the former colonies of the pre WWII powers, owe their independence to the US. The US at first kept those military posts to prevent the empires from re-establishing their control, which they tried. E.g. British and French in Suez 1956. And to prevent Soviet and Chinese expansion of communism, which is where they joined the French in Viet Nam, If Ho Chi Minn didn't go communist his country would have been actually independent long before and with American support. Then the US provided trade protection, particularly for oil for its allies and trade with itself, including all of China's trade. You are losing the plot. Go back to school and study facts rather than CCP propaganda. The great century of humiliation was the simple fact that China was liberated and got its independence due to American and Australian forces that pushed Japan's colonial forces out. Like De Gaulle, you can't forgive the US for providing your independence. Get over it.
  30. 7 points
    Give it up frankfurter! You are really reaching now... Yes, there are many US bases on foreign soul...because those foreign countries either asked for them or invited the US to build them. This is much different than creating artificial islands, in international waters, and arming them. The US has NEVER controlled or ‘owned’ the Golan Heights! Which orifice did you pull this little nugget of knowledge out of? Okay, we all get it that you despise the US and Americans. This is not the issue. The issue is your incessant line of nonsense.
  31. 6 points
    ^ You can't formulate without facts, and you can't get reliable facts on break-even costs from one single producer, much less the group of them. You can certainly get plenty of huff and puff (at least when oil is at $60) but you can't get facts. My supposition? If the break-even cost for production in the shale basin was $34--even for only one producer--that person or group of people would be buying drilling rights hand over fist. Trust me, that's not happening. So one must suppose that the break-even price is somewhere above $34. Where is that mysterious level? Since junk bonds supporting the shale endeavor are heavily discounted, and since the banks underwriting shale drillers sell off every time there is a downtick in the stock market, I have to assume that the real break-even price is somewhere well above $34. Your response was to buy up cheap Saudi and Russian oil and store it somewhere--probably in an old barely working field with thousands of holes shooting into a large mostly-empty reservoir interconnected to the working part of the oil world through infrastructure that could be easily activated to go both ways. Think about the logistics of doing that. How much will each well hold? Will the oil that's put down the hole come back out on its own or will it need to be lifted by using methane, or helium? Or is a large measure simply going to be lost for good? I could easily imagine a scenario whereby you'd lose 25% of what you put down and that it would cost a lot to retrieve the rest. So that little circular firing squad puts us back to the gentleman's idea of placing a tariff on imported oil. You called it a "terrible idea." Then recommended these sterling ideas of your own, with absolutely no basis in fact. I'm not the word police, but the man had a damn good idea--especially when you compare it to going on a shopping spree to buy all the oil this maniac in Saudi Arabia can produce until he goes broke. Don't you get it? The prince is an angry, vindictive, childish person in charge of the oil price to the world. He is also in charge of a very large refinery, which happens to be on US soil. His country gets by with spawning most of the 911 perpetrators. He gets by with the murder of a journalist who happens to live in the US. And we're to just sit by and let him destroy the oil market because we're #1 now? There are several scenarios: 1) A tariff, which the gentleman above proposed--not a terrible idea and by far the mildest of all exogenous pressures, 2) NOPEC, which effectively opens the KSA up to a flurry of lawsuits over 911 and also potentially shuts down their refinery for improper price-fixing, 3) An out and out embargo of Saudi oil, and 4) Let the market go, in the process bankrupting the kingdom but also potentially damaging the shale drillers to the extent that we lose any semblance of energy-independence. From that list take your pick. This is the entire list. Unless of course, the prince suddenly comes out of his fever dream of times past. We are said to be at over 75% storage levels. It is predicted that if this keeps going we'll be 100% full by Christmas--if it even comes this year. Since you're such a strong proponent of storage of cheap oil, tell us, please, what happens, exactly, at 100% storage? $5 oil? $2? I'm asking here, because like the coronavirus, no one has ever seen storage capacity maxed out. I'm sorry if this seems preacherly, but I get the distinct impression you just wanted to rattle off some dialogue without thinking it through. Letting a deranged prince destroy the oil markets of the world is not much of a plan.
  32. 6 points
    Terrible idea. US is the largest oil consumer and the highest per capita user among industrialized countries. We CRAVE cheap oil. We NEEDs it. The shale industry benefits the US because it lowers oil costs here. Particularly relative to the global benchmark. We used to pay a 10% premium, Now we pay a 10% DISCOUNT. That 20% swing is a terrific tail wind to the US economy. A competitive boost too. A post bankruptcy shale industry is going to have unburdened its historical legacy of bad lease terms and excess debt so could, for once actually be cash flow positive across the industry once prices recover. That also means that it will kick into gear when 9 month forward futures pick up to unexciting price levels even if spot remains depressed. At current Jan2021 contract at $34 there are some producers who breakeven even before restructuring. The best thing the US can do is store up as much oil as it can obtain at a cost below domestic production. Say thank you to Saudi and Russia and IMPORT the ultra cheap oil. We will need it. Storage may take a while to open capacity, but a few conventional oil fields have a large capacity to reinject oil into intact reservoirs using well maintained pipeline infrastructure. If we can fund it, I say go wild and stuff it with as much oil as you can. Don't make policy to favor the shale patch at everyone's expense. The tariff idea is demented. The US processes enormous amounts of Saudi and Russian oil and re-exports it as finished goods. If Trump has it right and the virus will be cresting within days as Prof. Levitt predicts, and the treatments tested over the past two months are as successful as they seem to be already, then the crisis is over NOW and we will resume a semblance of normal economic activity again as soon as the dementia addled governors will let us. The crisis as it is today is not a coronavirus problem any longer, but a headless chicken policy response. I would say remove the entire panoply of emergency powers from all levels of government so that it can't happen again. They failed to act when it was possible to delay the disease propagation, they started acting when virus contagion probably reached a large minority of the population in dense central metros, and went full on lockdown when essentially all have been exposed to the virus. So if they don't use their powers when it matters, they should not have them to torture us with useless responses AFTER the failure of containment. So the next step in recovery is the "China Free" supply chain movement to pull China out of the global supply chain and finance. It will consume commodities and oil. It is on the order of $3 Trillion.
  33. 6 points
    You should care about it. The time you'll remain in lockdown wil depend of the shape of this curves.
  34. 6 points
    What a load of crap. The US imported 15mm bbls/day for decades. That was when demand was 60-70-80mm bbls/d. With demand approaching 100mm bbls/d the US asks the world to take 4mm bbls/d and the response is Global Depression. And you idiots support that. It must be exhausting being a liberal.
  35. 6 points
  36. 6 points
    LOL, look at this, India is going to spend their free cash buying up the KSA cheap oil. These stupid turds are going to be flushed down the toilet with their dumbass strategy. https://in.reuters.com/article/india-oil-strategic-reserve-exclusive/exclusive-india-plans-to-top-up-strategic-tanks-with-cheap-saudi-uae-oil-sources-idINKBN2132B8 Pretty soon they are going to realize they are just giving away their resource. What utter imbeciles. The only way this makes sense is if oil was never going to be used again but that seems very, very, doubtful.
  37. 6 points
    It's widely known that the current Saudi Energy minister ABS (MBSs brother) has a very short temper and can be an antagonist. This is what led to Russia's Novak walking out of the OPEC+ meeting. ABS stubornly stuck to the terms of the desired cuts and would not consider any concessions to Russia. Some sources say this was a mandate from MBS , not ABS's own idea. Al-Falih has always gotten along with Novak. He was the person to convince Russia to work with OPEC+ . He is trying to set up another meeting to work things out. While the press calls it a "price war" it is really a market share war. Russia/Saudis can target U.S. shale and hit it hard BUT while many companies will go away the reserves DO NOT. The strong players will (1) buy up the reserves at heavily discounted price, (2) be unencumbered by lavish royalty agreements (3) don't have crappy balance sheets (4) apply the latest efficiencies, technology, and cost savings. Saudis deliveries to China are backing up with some being turned away. Saudis angry when they see (1) Russia continuing to sell decent volumes to China via the Eastern Siberian Asian Pacific pipeline and (2) U.S. becoming South Korean #1 crude supplier where U.S. gains are mostly Saudis losses. Tough for Saudis to accept. Saudi Arabia needs to get used to exporting less oil. (3) to add insult to injury China bought a discounted U.S. 2mm bbls VLCC Tanker load of oil the middle of last week and unloaded it ahead of waiting Saudi tankers. That would anger me. Saudis tend to shoot first , ask questions later. Just think of growing up with all that oil money for the last 40 or 50 years. That type of wealth and power fosters an entitlement attitude. Tough to change. Put aside all the bravado , all the positioning. Oil prices at current level are killing Russia and Saudi Arabia. I'm sure they don't want this to continue at these price levels. There was too much oil before the coronavirus. The virus just compounded the problem. Hopefully an agreement between them soon. But no guarantees. Both sides very pigheaded. Eventually, the growth in supply greater than increase in demand will be addressed without the radical drop in prices we saw last week and Monday. Easing into the transition is preferable to the overnight crash we are experiencing now. The consolidation of shale will start AFTER the Banks and Bondholders take ownership. The players are not going to pay up now for the reserves. Don't expect many buyouts in the short term. Buyers only interested in the reserves at much lower price. They will get their wish. Competition is coming to the oil industry. It's here. Saudi Royalty have to learn they can't always have their way. Could be a tough lesson for them to learn.
  38. 6 points
    You really have to be kidding! These are the people who gave the world SARS, the Avian Flu, the Swine Flu, and a new variant of the latter two on a yearly basis. There are countless articles on wet markets being breeding grounds for novel viruses that originate from animals--and yet they do nothing about them. They apparently covered up the outbreak in Wuhan for several weeks. The ophthalmologist who first reported it was castigated, and then ultimately died of the disease. We've had what, a couple dozen deaths in the US? And now you're making China out to be the safer partner to trade with? Unbelievable! You really might want to think this over before you spout out such nonsense.
  39. 6 points
    Are you on LinkedIn? The guy posting this stuff and his comments is called Dave-Ramsden-Wood He also has a website https://hottakeoftheday.com/ He's just another voice to listen to, can't tell you if I think he's right or wrong but he does seem to like his data
  40. 6 points
    Getting really really sick of my daughter coming home telling me damn near every lesson is attacking the oil industry, some of the subjects have got nothing to do with energy like English! Next thing they're doing in class is "Why is oil bad" not 'is oil bad' or 'what are the pros and cons of oil'. The poor kid is well aware of our predicament as we already had a really bad year in 2019 and it really upsets her yet these useless socialist teachers who are a net drain and don't earn a penny for the country can just sit their talking out of their asses to a bunch of uninformed kids. It's about time they put their money where their mouth is and stop using it. To be quite honest I might write the damn work myself and make her teacher look like an idiot
  41. 6 points
    I just feel that has been dealt with some years ago it just takes time for things to level out which I believe we were expecting this year anyway. Low prices, drastic drop in drilling activity in 2019 due to a lack of investor interest...at some point this year the slow down in production will change to a drop. There was no need for Saudi or Russia to destroy an industry that has been slowing down rapidly for years so there must be some other reason. Also blaiming shale for over production as if it's the only part of the idustry to be causing problems is just wrong. Saudi and OPEC caused prices to spike years ago so they are responsible for the rise of shale. Once shale fired up OPEC (and Russia to a degree) then ramped up production to try and stop it but the lack of patience (or maybe other factors) has now caused $30 oil and both Russia, Saudi and the smaller OPEC countries are going to feel the pain just as much. Blame OPEC first and formost, their meddling with prices are responsible and if shale dies tomorrow the world will probably suffer with 70-90 prices at a time when the global economy doesn't want it or at least the global economy can go back decades to a time when they were under the thumb of the cartels.
  42. 6 points
    Trump doesn't much care for the oil business. In fact, in his head, the Dow-Jones has always moved inversely to the price of oil. Today he is seeing for the first time as president that that isn't always true. He should immediately impose 25% tariffs on ME oil and call up Venezuela and Canada and tell them we're buying their heavy oil. But I don't think he has anyone in his cabinet who really understands just how bad this could get for the country.
  43. 6 points
    My mother is Russian so I'm half Russian. If you have a problem with it, I can't help you. It's hard for me to be anti-Russian in this connection, though I know that the West loves anti-Russian Russians in the style of Yeltsin Kasparov, Khodorkovsky Nemtsov or some other people acting to the detriment of Russia. The West loves such Russians, but the citizens of Russia themselves, who in the 90s found out what the intentions of the West were not necessarily.
  44. 6 points
    We use as much as we produce so we have not reason to cut, except to save our industry, we have our own buyers who are benefiting from low prices. We are going through a worldwide " Black Swan" economic upheaval due to the coronavirus/covid 19 hysteria. It shows that people value their lives over living their lives as usual. That is a valuable lesson that we should learn from. Is life all about making as much money as possible and having a huge house, expensive vehicles, expensive vacations, and all the other luxuries possible? If I can have greater longevity, more free time, and less of all of the above, that would be my choice. It would probably make for a lot smaller economy, but the people will choose. We are learning about this black swan and many more are possible. What we don't want to do is panic unnecessarily.
  45. 6 points
    Yep - what I'm seeing is full steam ahead on long lead items (permitting, right of ways, pads, certain infrastructure, etc), a more measured approach on medium lead items (actually building facilities and some infrastructure), and a significant slow down on short lead items. Aka, investment moderating from it's highs, but not going away. Majors preparing to be able to turn on the spigot fast when they want, but only bringing on what they want right now - mostly to fulfill contracts as other wells decline. (Also, going to defer the highest capital portions - aka the actual frack - until shortly before pop. But that's again, generally a short lead item.) It'll be able to ramp relatively quickly though, which will temper the upside moving forward. Might brace for sustained lower end of the recent price range.
  46. 6 points
    Sad, but true. At the end of the day, the Chinese, like the Venezuelans, need to figure out if they desire a change of government. If so, THEY need to make it happen.
  47. 6 points
    No, no, no! It is not the Chinese people that caused this fiasco, in fact they are suffering worse than anybody! It is the Chinese GOVERNMENT which needs a boot up the butt.
  48. 6 points
    China could always supply them, as could Russia, the sanctions don't cover medical equipment, they cover financing of them. Since China and Russia have no problem trading munitions for oil with Iran, they should have no problem trading medical supplies too. The current circumstance is entirely the result of Iran's preferences for arms and funding of Hezbollah and Syria. The sanctions have no effect on that.
  49. 6 points
    Right! All ~350 million of them! Now that really shows your ‘intellect’. If you hate Yanks, just grow a set of balls and say so! Don’t try to justify your bias, just say that you dislike Americans. It would put your posts in context and save people reading them if they disagreed with your root bias.
  50. 6 points
    Do you remember how the subprime debt crisis in the housing sector spread to the whole economy in 2007-2008 ? Now it seems that we have another bubble about to explode in the oil and gas sector. Hundreds of billions have been invested in the shale gas and oil companies unable to make a profit given the low level of oil price. When U.S. home prices declined steeply after peaking in mid-2006, it became more difficult for borrowers to refinance their loans. Something similar is happening now. With the decline of oil prices oil and gas companies are struggling to refinance their huge debts. The coronavirus could be the fatal blow and if many companies go bankrupt this will also affect the banks and investors potentially converting this in a wider financial crisis. https://ieefa.org/ieefa-update-bankruptcies-multiply-for-fracking-sector/ https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/u-s-shale-oil-outlook-darkens-as-by-product-prices-slide/