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  1. 10 points
    I think that it has to do more with the desired national policy than anything else. Can the President mandate that companies do not do business with North Korea or Iran? Of course he can. If it is felt that China is detrimental to US economic security he could also invoke that priviledge. This is not socialism, it is more of a national security issue. Furthermore, if your adversary does not 'play by the rules' (the Politburo could easily decree that Chinese companies are banned from doing business in the US) or skirts the intent of WTO rules, why should you handcuff yourself to 'fair play'? This is the crux of the problem. China expects everyone else to play by the rules while they simply ignore them...giving them an unfair advantage. Other examples would be the Nine Line Map/freedom of navigation/ownership of the South China Sea and adherence to environmental norms.
  2. 9 points
    I suppose if you consider having their economy in tatters, having their oil exports embargoed, being involved in a proxy war with Saudi Arabia, being considered a pariah in the global community and being destroyed by a backwards thinking theocracy....then I guess you are correct and Iran is 'winning big'.
  3. 8 points
    Here we go. Of course it was Iran. It could have been anyone and it would have been Iran. Why did we even need to waste the resources. It was going be be Iran. Even if it was/is Iran. That to me sounds like a Saudi problem. Not a United states problem. if Iran had bombed a major US refinery, do you think the Saudis would be chomping at the bit to be tagged in? Absolutely not. It's time for the Saudis to stand on their own two feet.
  4. 8 points
    Check out the pictures of the damage to two different sites. There are 17 distinct impact points on critical infrastructure. There are probably five spheroids hit and four or five stabilizer columns out 18 at abquiq. This damage looks like months to fix but I don't know how much production it would inhibit.
  5. 8 points
    There is one constant in all of these situations: when the liberty of the public is threatened, the people go out into the streets and carry the American Flag. Not just one American Flag. Hundreds of American Flags. And the reason is perfectly straight-forward: there is nobody else - literally nobody else - who is prepared to step up to the plate and help those people secure their liberty. And that, folks, is the quintessential truth about the Americans. They really are the Land of Freedom. Even when the internal fascists and losers try to take it away. Even when the people wrongly elect someone like Lyndon Johnson. Ultimately, those with the authoritarian tendencies get dumped, and the standard-bearers of American Freedom get elected, and then yet once again America and the Americans are the ones to guarantee Freedom on the land. Where do these brave men come from, the ones who are prepared to put their own lives on the line to secure Liberty for others on the other side of the planet? They come from America. I invite you to ponder that.
  6. 8 points
    You might want to keep in mind that at least 85% of Americans would not be able to point out Iran on a map. Probably half could not get within a thousand miles of the place. My guess is that most Americans would be pointing to Turkmenistan or perhaps Mauretania, and that is assuming they don't come up with Paraguay. The guys that you are running into here represent a very tiny slice of American life, basically statistically insignificant. So the loud Trumpista stadium roars you are hearing are, as a practical matter, meaningless. Please understand that, in America, lots of the people here are pretty much stupid. It is an unfortunate situation. I allocate a great deal of the responsibility to the abject failure of the public education system in not teaching other languages besides English. The result is that Americans have become mono-cultural; nobody reads Faust or even Kafka, and forget about Voltaire or Dostoevsky. It is one big failure. I had an Iranian (he was an immigrant) walk into my factory looking for a job. After talking with him for a while I realized that he was really smart, and really talented. I hired him on the spot and put him to work in charge of my industrial product design department. He was great. Iranians tend to be very smart people and could have a lot to contribute to the planet. But what has happened is that they have allowed the radical students that sacked the US Embassy and humiliated the Ambassador and the marine guards (who were under strict orders not to shoot at anybody) by taking them prisoner for 444 days. Now those guys from 1979 are the power elite in Iran today, and keep it running as a prison camp. Now when you do that, you turn your nation into a pariah. Nobody wants to have anything to do with you. And you allow your total crazies to take over by creating a "religious police." What Iranians do not grasp is that when you allow the Ayatollahs to go chant "Death to America" and you go burn the USA flag in public (and do more "Death to America" chants, you are setting yourself up for a world of hurt. You don't do that, not to anybody, and especially not to Americans, they do not blow that off, they take it very personally. There are people in America who are quite prepared to shoot you dead for doing that. So, don't do it, be smart. As far as reading and following the Trumpistas on this Forum, that is probably a complete waste of time. They do not represent America or Americans, who overall are quite kindly and generous people. Notwithstanding the reputation of gun violence, this is a peaceful country. It is not even in the top 25 of national violence; a lot more pleasant than say Brasil. The other day we had at least 800 teenagers marching down the road in front of my house, carrying big M-16 military-type rifles, and nobody was in the least concerned. There was not one phone call to the local police about the armed teenagers. You can assume that they were on a conditioning march, from the reserve officer unit at the college. When I see someone walking along the road and carrying a gun, and looks tired, and it is still six miles to town, I think nothing of swinging over and offering the fellow a ride. Hey, he is not going to shoot me and steal my car, that is not going to happen, it never happens. Put all those ideas out of your mind, this is a friendly, peaceful country. You do have these Trumpistas that try to make excuses for Trump. When Trump walks into some stadium and shouts, "We will build a wall!", all those guys go cheer. Then when he says, "And Mexico will pay for it!", those Trumpistas go nuts and wildly cheer. But it is all ridiculous nonsense. Don't take that seriously; even Trump himself does not take that seriously. Some of those Trumpistas show up here and try to excuse his ridiculous nonsense, like saying he wants to go buy Greenland. As the prime minister pointed out, that was "absurd." Then Trump and the Trumpistas get bent out of shape because they feel insulted. Never mind that he blows off a State Visit (which, incidentally, Trump was begging the Queen for through backdoor channels) and belittles the Prime Minister to boot. Don't make the mistake of taking the Trump crowd seriously. They are a painful reminder of the interesting psychological phenomenon of Anomie. It is unfortunate. America will survive those guys. When they pop up here on Oilprice and make ridiculous comments or go post those silly meme cartoons, remember that they are acting out. The country continues. Meanwhile, I won't be posting, as I have become tired of the negativity. That mental set is alien to the entrepreneurs in America, who by definition are optimistic and forward-looking. Be of good cheer.
  7. 8 points
    We should remember Iran has endured sanctions for quite some time, and has made them quite self-sustaining, albeit at a lower standard of living. The USA's fundamental boob move of recent history concerning Iran was destabilizing Iraq. Blow back is a bitch.
  8. 7 points
    Well, here's the math: An "excellent" shale well, as with merely "good" or even "punk," produces the most during the first year. Then fairly rapid decline sets in. That initial production, the IP, basically bankrolls the company that drilled that well. The lifetime production of such a well is based on the trajectory of the IP parabola, and that, in turn, depends on the thickness of the shale layer, how oil-soaked it is, and matters such as porosity of the rock, how easily fractured, and whether or not it is held in place by a pinch-out (a non-porous subterranean barrier). An excellent well with a big IP is usually thought to have a lifetime yield of about 600,000 barrels, which even at $50/barrel (which can't go on forever, can it?) comes to . . . $30,000,000. It costs just as much to drill a mediocre well as an excellent well--about $6,000,000. Many of the wells drilled into Tier-1 rock pay out in the first two years of life. That's one of the reasons EOG is so successful: They have great geologists and engineers working on this and their GPS drilling is second to none. Another reason is because they buy cheaply, drill out a field quickly, and by the time other companies move in, they're on their way to the next great Great. But you're right, every driller is running out of Tier-1 rock, especially in the Permian where "child" wells (infills) are between 20-30% less productive than their "parent" well (the "wildcat" in the tract). This is because of a pressure sink and also due to porosity and the near absence of pinch-outs. Okay, move on to Tier-2 rock, which is frequently thinner shale but sometimes closer to the surface. A pretty good well is projected to produce about half that of a Tier-1. That's still $15,000,000 return for a $6M investment, and again about 50% of that comes with the IP. Something that no one ever mentions is "re-frack," which is going to eventually become--I think--a pretty big deal. Spend $2-3M for re-fracturing a good well and in many cases--especially in the Bakken, where they say 60% of wells are re-frackable--and you wind up with a brand new oil well that is as good as the old one (or better, because completion techniques improve). The thing that is killing most shale drillers is the usual: too much debt. But all this pessimism in the WSJ and elsewhere presupposes that we're never going to improve completion techniques, or discover cheaper ways to fracture rock, or handle the 2:1 water load that comes up with the oil (think reuse and pipelines instead of trucking it to disposal wells). Me? I'm no expert but I think shale oil just saved our asses; instead of escalating a conflict in the Middle East (Iraq comes to mind), we are mostly just imposing economic sanctions on Iran and showing KSA how to run their radar. This is amateur hour when I explain this, but also factual data from someone who loses a lot of sleep about the shale business. I hope this helps, because I don't have a single link to show you and I don't even know where to find one for sure. My only "link" is from putting my money where my mouth is, which probably wasn't the smartest thing I've ever done in my long life. But it has forced me to study like I was back in college, and they say that keeps Alzheimer's at bay.
  9. 7 points
    I originally posted this on Redflagdeals and copy pasted it to here. I worked as a Journeyman Electrician in the Canadian oilsands since 2005 with some live plant and construction experience (got my ticket in 2004 working commercial work). This is an interesting conversation as I immediately said to my dad that there is now way they could re-build in just 2 weeks, unless damage was VERY minimal (HIGHLY UNLIKELY judging by the video). But to inspect everything after a fire like and know what needs to be replaced in 2 days would be impossible. My original post start here: Most people that comment on these situations have never worked in an oil/gas plant, so they do not realize how much WORK actually goes into a fire rebuild or the initial construction of one. Just from an electricians perspective, you have to install cable tray, then pull power cables, instrument cables, control cables, fire alarm cables, all which may have melted insulation from the fire. Most of the time you will also need a boom truck to carry the cable reels to the location prior to pulling. Some cable reels I have moved have been around 15,000 pounds. Some pulls will also require a tugger for the bigger cable which involves setting up sheaves and rollers (approximately every 5 feet), think about cable that is around 10-15 pounds per foot. Before replacing anything though they will first they have to figure out what needs replacing, then they will have to order the material. Some of it may even need to be manufactured. Once a cable is pulled into place you should point to point the cable, and megger it if it is a power cable to check for insulation integrity. Then once that is done you have to strip the outer jacket, install a Teck connector, gland the cable, strip the inner jacket, then finally terminate it. You will also have garbage to clean up from the left over cable and jackets. If they do have lots of cable to replace you also have to consider if the existing cable trays are completely full, so you may have to strip out the damaged cable before even starting to pull new (should be done anyways but they are in a rush). Everything takes time. Instruments could have been damaged and need replacing as well. If something like an I/O building or E-house (electrical) was damaged it could even be worse as this is where many cable originate from, panels might need replacing. Guaranteed they don't have all of this material sitting around as backup just in case of an attack.This is just from my perspective as an electrician who has work 15+ years (got ticked in 2004 from commercial work and started in oil plants in 2005), from construction to live plants. Who knows what the extent of the damage was though, but I feel they are trying to make it sound not as bad as it is judging by how big the fire was. They don't want a spike in oil prices from panic leading to a major recession. Also, I don't think Saudi wants to show vulnerability. In this case it was not only the fire they have to contend with, but also the explosions from the drone strike which could have caused additional damage. Could pipelines and flow valves have been damaged? Oil plants look crude, but they are actually very complex. I have always been told start up and re-starting a plant is always the most dangerous time to be in a plant as well....They better make sure they did the work right, especially if they are in a rush. There is a LOT of testing/pre commissioning work before restarting a plant. You don't just go and turn it back on.I am pretty sure after the 2005 fire at Suncor it took around 8 months for the rebuild, and that was in a relatively small part of the plant compared to multiple drone strikes throughout the Saudis plant. You can put as much manpower on a job as you want, but when there are too many people in one area, just like rush hour traffic, it just takes longer because people are in each others way.Full disclosure, I bought around $45,000 worth of CND mid cap oil stock last Wed. and Thursday. Today I purchased another $25,000 in CND mid cad oil stocks. If Saudi is back to full production in 2-3 weeks it won't be from their 2 plants that were damaged from these attacks. They might try and fudge the numbers from their stockpiles though, which is what I think they are going to do. Another thing I will add to this that I didn't think of in my original post was that even before rebuilding it would most likely take weeks to install scaffolding to work off of....Plus they would most likely have to bring scaffolders to site as well as the scaffolding. Just to inspect what is wrong them would most likely need scaffolding to access some areas, as EWP's (elevated work platforms) can't access everything and are a pain to work off for some situations.
  10. 7 points
    The official narrative makes no sense whatsoever. Worth reading and considering in the mad rush to war: Questions, Not Answers Surround U.S. Push to War with Iran =============================== These memes (inspired by Zhong's recent comments here) were originally meant as a joke, but it seems absurdly obvious now that many U.S. government war hawks are unswervingly dedicated to start a war / bombing campaign against Iran no matter what. In U.S. war hawk NPC unthinking robotic inflexibility, Iran is at fault, no matter what evidence is found. Houthis claim responsibility? Nope, it was Iran. Damn any evidence or impartial, critical thinking, it was Iran, and drop those bombs now. NPC. Robotic thinking. Bomb now, think later (or never). Damn near the same scenario when U.S. war hawks claimed proof of Saddam's Weapons of Mass Destruction in mobile trucks, which were later proven to be a fabricated lie to justify bombing Iraq. Total fustercluck of warmonger lies. Read the article in the link above. Trump seems to be the adult in the room, saying to his war-obsessed advisors to hold the fuck up a minute guys, let's get some actual proof before we do anything. Here's a thought, how about U.S. pull out 90% of troops from the Middle East and let Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran bomb each other to their hearts content. Which they clearly want to do. ● Why the hell does the U.S. need to respond? ● Saudi Arabia should be 100% responsible for finding evidence and taking appropriate military action for the military strike against Saudi Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia, and NOT THE U.S. This is going to end badly. Very badly. F*ucking warmongers lust after war and bombing, and peace will not be allowed to break out, thus sayeth our warlord masters in the Middle East. / frustrated
  11. 7 points
    Point 1 was true back in 2014, but since 2016 everyone has switched to the skiddable rigs. Here is a chart I made a couple of weeks ago comparing rig counts and production. Back in 2014 only about 15-20% of rigs were skiddable but now the majority of them are. That is how production ramped so much with a much lower number of rigs than in 2014. The improvements in drilling techniques have been ongoing since 2014 and apply to all rigs. Keep in mind, the skiddable rigs are the productivity increase that everyone has been talking about along with zipper fracs. I pointed out in a recent post that losing one of these rigs is like losing 4 of the old ones because a normal pad is set up to drill at least two and usually four from a skiddable. XTO drilled 12 new wells last year on my Orla section using skiddable rigs. They were able to drill them at a rate of about one every three weeks using those rigs. My independent is about to finish the third well (including a sidetrack) since June 27 using the same rig but with two pads. He put two wells on one pad and is about to finish the third one on a second pad. Not sure if he is planning to do a fourth before moving to another section or not. All this talk about DUCs is just speculation because a producing well could still be categorized as a DUC. Furthermore, if prices don't improve, the DUCs will not be leading to increased production because they will remain inventoried. Finally, no one is using rig count to "estimate production" but instead as an indicator of where production is headed and it's headed down based on that metric, irrespective of the DUC count. Here is a picture of three wells drilled together on a single pad by a skiddable rig. It is actually 4 but the BOP for one of them is laying on the side because it didn't fit so they have the well capped while waiting on the right BOP to arrive.
  12. 7 points
    DING. And yes, the arrogance and self righteousness quite astounding. LOL 🤣 Yeah people here are pretty pro MSM. Bang on again. We get it, you hate USA and UK. Jeez. Toxic individual much? Germany / Japan: 1940s = good USA / UK: 1940S = bad Iran / NK / any dictatorship: 2019 = good USA / UK: 2019 = bad We get it. Narrative clear. Version of history clear. Moral compass very clear. DING Just curious, is this in actual history or your version of history? Don't bother answering. I'm done with you troll.
  13. 7 points
    It all depends on where you get these 'approval ratings', doesn't it. Mainstream media is biased and is not to be taken seriously. The confidence rating of CNN is now below that of the shopping channel.
  14. 7 points
    Fantastic! I think we will soon be seeing a leaner, meaner, more vitalized UK in the near future!
  15. 7 points
    And Now you know why the tariffs are going the way they are. China agreed to (meaninglessly) sign a document to avoid tariffs, then cried foul when Trump added monitoring mechanisms. They were Always planning to blatantly ignore the rules they were agreeing to. It's worked so far, under multiple presidents.
  16. 7 points
    The US will not go into some economic downturn even if China erected a 100% quota barrier and imported NO USA products. China simply does not buy enough from the USA to make that sort of difference. Most containers heading back to China from West Coast ports travel empty. It is so heavy in the empty-container trade that China is now manufacturing one-way containers. The load goes here, and then the US can keep the container, much like a one-way wood pallet. Cheaper than trying to ship that container back by truck or rail to the port and paying the ship line to haul it back to China. Tells you all you need to know.
  17. 7 points
    This whole 'Nine Line Map', 'we own the entire South China Sea issue is childish in the extreme - and China knows this. How can China claim sovereignty over waters which are not even adjacent to China? It is ridiculous. It is not only a Vietnamese issue, but concerns every other nation with shores on the South China Sea. These nations are cowed due to economic dependence and military threat. This is the true face of the Belt & Road Initiative.
  18. 7 points
    I voted Brexit. I don't live in a council house, take welfare and have a high IQ (tested). Don't lump me in with your bigoted views, it is childish and shortsighted and speaks of your own means. I voted Brexit for many reasons, none of them to do with multiculturalism, which I wholly support. I live amongst a wide variety of cultures and people who are a lot more open and friendly than you seem to be. Don't come on here and insult people you don't know ("semi literate racists who infest the council estates of the UK"), it is rude and demonstrates narrow-mindedness. If you are open to discussion on why people chose to vote to leave the EU, I would be more than happy to discuss in an intelligent manner, which this forum consistently demonstrates.
  19. 6 points
    I was in the Navy as an OS (I operated radars) from 2003-2008. You are 100% correct. If there were drones anywhere over waters occupied by the U.S. Navy, we would have seen them. I have no doubt an alternate land route was taken if the U.S. didnt see them in the Persian gulf. Also, see C-RAMs for why I also find this suspicious.
  20. 6 points
    I find the lack of information and 'fact' coming out of this situation very suspicious. As Doug has stated in a few threads now, we actually know nothing concrete at all other than this facility was attacked. Anything I say would be pure opinion, and even when the 'facts' are released, well, let's see. If you want my opinion, put simply, I find the lack of anything concrete, after 4 days, very odd. That said, people clearly know things and are not willing to release it yet. Fine. I'm not going to bother commenting on the rumour mill churning away in MSM. Soon we will know I guess. Whose version we 'know' or are fed is another matter. It's gone from Yemen to Iran to drone to missile to production screwed to production fine to IPOs to satellite images to elections to Russia to Bolton to Pompeo to the fucking Tooth Fairy. It's 2019. People clearly know everything already. Who are we kidding? In answer to your question, there literally is no 'story'. And even when we do get it, it'll be surrounded in hypotheticals, conspiracies, truth, bullshit and rumour. Haha just ignore me, I just want concrete news for selfish trading purposes. I'm the worst, but I'm honest.
  21. 6 points
    In the second photo, I find it interesting that the impacts on all four tanks seem to be on an identical azimuth and height on the tanks. I am no drone expert, but this seems to be exceptional accuracy/targetting if you are assuming a pre-programmed flight path based on GPS. If it was remotely piloted, perhaps. I am having a hard time accepting the ‘programmed drone’ theory.
  22. 6 points
    The Yemenis or their descendants , primarily are in the South Western part of the KSA, Asir region, Abha, Najran, Gizan but they were fairly spread to many other parts of KSA, and were later mostly displaced by Egyptians because of their higher education levels , who went on to take teaching, professorial positions, drs, engineers etc (however some of their degrees could be called into question LOL). However , in the 80s and 90s they were also a major labor force that were small bizz (shops, gas stations, cafes) operators. In those days, you coldnt throw a 50 halala coin without hitting a Yemeni. It was that they mostly owned and or operated all your corner stores, gas stations, little cafes and food joints. I remember going in the souks and the "farmers markets" in the Southern region and see the folks walking around with their holsters and rifles and even AKs and their Khanjars.
  23. 6 points
    James Carville famously coined the phrase, "It's the economy, Stupid" to cut into George Bush's (the first) almost insurmountable lead. What millennials don't realize is that Bush had an 89% approval rating when James crafted that slogan, and adding in "Read my lips, no new taxes", well the rest as they say, is history. Today there are those claiming the economy is in the doldrums, but with markets at or near all time highs, what else would traders say? They're in the business of buying cheap and selling high, and they'll happily trash every stock to give themselves a cheap buying opportunity. Right now they're selling, holding the cash and claiming the stock they just sold is worthless so they can buy it all over again. Nick Cunningham penned this missive about the lack of demand growth. I'm not convinced it's the end of the world, demand growth for petroleum has grown nominally 1% per year as far back as I can find data. IEA likewise is looking at global numbers, not US and given that current consumption is 100 million bbls per day, it seems reasonable that next year will demand another million bbls, at 1% growth. Nick's breathless article calls out a SWAG from EIA of 0.9 million bbls for a YUUUGE drop off of 100k bbls, assuming their scientific wild-assed guess remains accurate through the end of the year. I've got an old World Oil magazine on my desk from October 2010. Page 27 shows domestic oil production almost exactly 9 years ago today of 5,393,000 bbls total US production. Worldwide demand then appears to have been around 90 million total. 2010 the Bakken was just coming up to speed, and the Permian wasn't quite a gleam in daddy's eye yet. Today we're on track to produce 13 million and between crude and finished goods, exports are 9 million bbls per day. Therefore, by itself the US has picked up the entirety of Worldwide oil demand. Remember too that there are roughly 194 countries in the world, but only about 80 that have the fiscal resources to pay up for oil with petrodollars. The rest have plenty of unsatisfied demand but don't really count since they effectively can't afford oil even at these currently depressed prices. Counting the rich countries, whose populations are growing at less then 1% per year, average, we can clearly see that the majority of demand increase comes A) from wealthy countries and B) is due almost exclusively to population growth. There's an analogue here. A friend of mine used to be an economist for a power utility. He did all kinds of fancy math with lots of statistics, but at the end of the day the utility's demand growth quite coincidentally matched oil, at 1% per year, or roughly how much the utility's population base was increasing every year. The new CEO looked at years of this guy's reports and said, "Why are we paying this guy so much?". Like a weatherman in Hawaii, he could submit the exact same predictions year after year and generally be spot on. Ultimately, if you're trying to predict the price of oil, predict the population growth of wealthy countries and how much more the US is likely to keep increasing productivity. If the US keeps increasing production by more than the global demand increase, oil will fall and vice versa.
  24. 6 points
    I already gently warned earlier about avoiding personal insults in this thread. It has since escalated, despite the warning. So ... I cleaned up the thread a bit, and have temporarily locked this thread for today, a time out, for people to cool down.
  25. 6 points
    This site will be much poorer if the likes of Jan decide to leave. Other class acts have already left due to the trolling and simple lack of etiquette. If your (not you’re) goal is to turn this site into an adolescent bun fight, go to it.
  26. 6 points
    Yes you are correct. BP just left Alaska to concentrate on U.S. shale so THEY CAN LOOSE MORE MONEY EXXON just sold Norway holdings to focus on Shale and Guyana to lose money Chevron best Worldwide Return on Capital is U.S. shale. KKR just bought prime Permian Delaware basin acreage so they can loose money in shale. Exxon said they can get Permian break even price down to $15.00 bbl MUST be a bold face Lie. The market will put the knuckleheads that thought oil would be $100 bbl forever out of business The sooner the better. That's not a "fracture" it's natural industry lifecycle. U.S. Shale and Gulf of Mexico will dominate Oil and Gas market for next decade.
  27. 6 points
    As a landowner I can promise you I would never agree to it. We have had several companies go bankrupt while owning our leases and what they do is sell the lease to another operator to raise cash. The lease itself holds the reserve value of the minerals as long as PPQ is maintained so that is the priority for the operator. The lease might be encumbered by a lien and if so, then it's value is reduced and if the property isn't producing much, maybe they abandon it. However, the stuff out in the Permian has so much oil down there that is known, no one is pumped out yet so the lease will be sold, not renegotiated. The whole reason we have a shitty 1/8 lease with XTO is because a lease that was signed by my ancestors in 1950 was maintained in force for 65 years by several different operators. XOM owned the deep rights after severing the shallow stuff and selling them in 1970. Incredibly, under Texas law, the deep rights were maintained by the shallow lease without XTO spending a dime to exploit them all those years. Lease writing has gone from advantage oil man to advantage land owner these days.
  28. 6 points
    Dr. Rezvani, Please sit back and take a few deep breaths. Your initial post has obviously opened a discussion about an issue which many feel strongly about. I am making the assumption that you are Iranian, but I cannot determine where you are located or where your loyalties actually lie, but this is not germane to this discussion. Suffice it to say that the vast majority of the people on this site, and elsewhere, support and admire the Iranian people, conversely, they despise the ruling theocracy for what they doing to the Iranian people and the hardships they are forced to endure. Furthermore, acts such as hanging young women for something as inconsequential as a piece of clothing is reminiscent of ISIS to those with Western values. I would be the first to admit that placing our values on another culture is somewhat arrogant and is fraught with danger, but many of us are aware of the vibrant Iranian society and culture of the ‘60’s and ‘70’s and compare that to what we see taking place now. Going back in history to assign blame is perhaps a good academic exercise, but it does not address the situation on the ground in Iran. As I said earlier, some have very strong feelings on this issue and will respond somewhat emotionally, just as you have recently done. I believe that at the end of the day, both you and the others have the Iranian people at heart, and on that we can all agree.
  29. 6 points
    Jan I have followed many of your comments on various topics and think you're a super smart guy! However these comments I disagree with. I partly own a factory in the UK manufacturing goods predominantly for the energy markets, we struggle to find people in the UK who (a) want to work and (b) have the correct skill set. There are plenty of jobs and well paid jobs for people who want to get on in life and are willing to work their way up to be skilled valuable members of the community. We employ many E.Europeans and have done so for 20 years, many of whom are now key highly skilled members of our management team. Our main market is Europe (circa 70% exported there) are we worried? yes due to the uncertainty of the last 3 years of pissing around after the vote. However the EU will still be our market I believe as tariffs will be offset by a weakened GBP to export, however for imports these will be far more expensive and hurt our competitors trying to break into the UK market. Regarding migrants and refugees the UK has taken way more than their fair share over the years compared to our EU cousins (look at the camps in Calais) with no criteria to satisfy for entry (not even that they have to speak English after 10 years). BoJo like him or loathe him will bring in criteria for migrant skills that they have to satisfy going forward or they aint getting in, just like many other Western countries. Regarding the financial sector you may be right, only time will tell. I was a remainer but Brexit needs to be done and done quickly if not for the economy then for democracy! be kind its my first ever post ☺️
  30. 6 points
    The cultures of Iran and North Korea are totally different aside from having dictators. Many Iranians are very culturally advanced. I doubt that is the case for North Koreans due to their long life under communism.
  31. 6 points
    The "glass houses" are long gone. Nobody in America gets hung from a tree. That is absurd. What happened in the distant past is not the here and now. The here and now is that people in certain places get their abdominal cavity slit open and their bowels spilled out. Now just how barbaric does it have to get? People who do that have forfeited their right to life on this planet. And don't preach to Americans about jellied gasoline or Agent Orange. That stuff has not even been manufactured in the last fifty years. The people who did that are all long dead and buried. We are dealing with Today. Do try to focus on that.
  32. 6 points
    It cannot. China has zero ability to influence the US elections, outside of the very small constituencies of union dock workers at West Coast ports. Those then to be in States that typically have their Electoral College delegates vote Democratic, so the decrease in Asian trade, which might be calculated to depress dockworker numbers and wages, is not going to be a factor in the delegates to the Electoral College. Even if dockworkers were to be solidly Republican, an unlikely prospect, and they were all terminated and the docks closed, also an unlikely prospect, and then voted Democratic as a revenge vote against Republican Trump collapsing the China trade, it would have zero difference. California, with the largest ports at Los Angeles and San Diego, votes Democratic anyway, and all delegates to the Electoral College are already Democrats. So, where is the influence? There is none. What is not mentioned in the latest round is that China now imposes a 25% tariff on American cars, and a 5% tariff on US-made car parts. But aside from Buick, which manufactures cars inside China, there is no large trade of imported US cars anyway. The big hit will be likely to Tesla, which has bet the company on manufacturing the Model 3 inside China, and will likely need auto parts from its US suppliers. Will Tesla fold as a result? Probably. But other poor management decisions will contribute more to Tesla collapse than whatever China dreams up. Tesla only survives because zealots keep handing it money. By any metric the company is hopelessly upside-down and has no possibility of becoming self-sustaining by developing positive cash flow. Its China gambit was the Hail-Mary Pass, and that looks like it is headed for the scuppers. Will Buick (General Motors) take a big hit due to the China auto parts tariff? Probably not. The Buick is a niche product directed at wealthier Chinese buyers, who have the cash to buy it even if the price creeps up by 10%. So the reality is that the tariff is a paper tiger. China can hit the US soybean production to cause trouble in the short term, but I predict that US agriculture is flexible enough to switch to other crops. The US today is the literal breadbasket of the world. It produces vast volumes of food, both grains and meats, and will continue to do so. You will see soybeans follow where corn has gone: into animal feed, as the planet continues to drift towards a meat diet. Even there, with a crop largely expanded just for China, the Chinese government has minimal leverage. It can and will cause some short-term disruption, but that remains local and transient. The bigger hit will be to the Chinese themselves, forcing more reliance on grains (rice) from the Southeast and from Indochina. Those are self-inflicted wounds.
  33. 6 points
    Tommie If i was an American I think I would be very happy with what DT is doing, he is following the world trend towards the right wing and protectionism, what's the other options? Central Politics which don't resolve anything but tread water or we head left which in reality is hypocrisy and follows suit as protectionism mixed with rampant corruption. Brasil is a great model to see how communism fails at every step as in the end greed over powers any utopian dream of equality, its in our DNA were humans. As I'm not an American I look at the situation sometimes with distain based on the comments and attitudes of mainstream citizens who have never been out of their current state let alone the country or fail to own a passport, its important to realise that the American Dream is alive and well. I have many good friends from the land of hope and some on this forum but I don't agree with any world domination ideology, it's not healthy and it's apparent in both forms on each side of the trade war unfortunately. Perhaps I am in denial or just jealous... Meanwhile Brexit.......😀
  34. 6 points
    Agree, yet another conflict in the region would be a shame. Both the US and Iran have stated that they do not want war, but there are other players who would like to either see the US dragged into another conflict or the theocracy in Iran unseated. Let's hope that calmer heads prevail. The biggest loser in any conflict would be the Iranian people...and they do not deserve that.
  35. 6 points
    No, I really do not think we can agree that he is mentally ill. You have a right to your opinion, but please do not assume that you can speak for the rest of us.
  36. 5 points
    Judging from his writing, Jabber appears not to have English as his first language. If I am wrong, please correct me. Regardless, I think we should cut him some slack and not try to pick apart his texts, nor put words into his mouth. I take his text to mean he has information that, in his mind, casts serious doubts on the narrative and images espoused by the likes of Pompeo [who has admitted publicly he has no scruples and is trained to cheat, lie, steal, and murder]. I thank him for alerting us to what seems to be cause for doubt.
  37. 5 points
    It is all politics, nothing to do with rational thinking. There is this deep antipathy towards Alberta in the East, specifically in Ontario and Quebec. Ontario takes in quite a bit of refined product from the US refineries in the US Midwest. Quebec refineries (a good number of which have closed due to environmental activist pressures in the east End of the Island of Montreal) take in their crude via a pipeline running from Portland, Maine to Montreal. That crude in turn is sourced typically either from the Caribbean or from the Middle East. So the Quebec politicians think they can be pompous asses towards "the blue-eyed sheiks of Alberta" and be comfortable with cheap ME crude. That idea just now has come to a crashing halt. It is pure stupidity, sheer arrogance and stupidity, on the part of the Eastern politicians that has kept overland pipe from Alberta for both oil and nat gas to flow to the population centers in Eastern Canada. The country is open and notorious for political vacuousness and stupidity, so this particular expression of incoherence is nothing new. And the result is that Albertans are now taking it on the chin, as they have no larger-scale access to markets. It is my view that Alberta could and should invest heavily in refining capacity and then dominate the oil industry, including that in the US central North Midwest, with finished product. But, they have also not done that! Go figure.
  38. 5 points
    They probably shot their load and need time to lay low and regroup and plan. The over-investment in technology and people to prevent the next attack alone will drag the Saudis down a bit. This was probably beyond MbS's conception of feasible. When the Americans laid out Aramco it was for efficiency, things putting so much risk into key choke points were not a factor. Abqaiq is the mother of all GOSPs. Impressive to see, and I doubt there will ever be something done on it's scale again. There is probably enough redundancy to take out a quarter of it and still produce normally. If I was planning the next attack I'd pick a different choke point, there are no shortage of targets. A simple pumping station or two would more than likely be poorly defended and easier to hit. Abqaiq had the advantage of a large town next to it for insurgents to work out of. In the Al Queda attack of 2006 the Saudi guard force ran away, the odd Phillapino being heroic in fighting. Had that Al Qeada group been better trained and knew what to take out it would have been a disaster. FYI, owning a drone is illegal there. I saw them, knew folks that owned them, but for obvious reasons were illegal. The attempt on MBS a year or so ago being an example as to why they are not allowed. He must sleep about as well as Stalin did. And if he treats his officer core half as badly, he's going to have a hell of a time building up a capable counter-resistance force. I bet heads roll over this. Literally, and figuratively. I can't imagine the suspended state of belief in the Aramco command center as this was happening. Sometimes Inshall'ah is a bitch.
  39. 5 points
    I'm a bit late to the party but would be remiss (to myself) in not registering my profound belief. The EIA is like a verse from Shakespeare: A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. When you look at their estimates of stored supply, there is a ten-million-barrel drawdown one week, a 350,000 buildup the next. Only when you go to find out why, and actually look at the manufacturing index, the home-builder's index, the refinery feedstock load that week--any index of what actually uses less or more of petroleum--there has been no demonstrable change. And yet the EIA moves markets. As a man who makes his living off oil and gas, I must reluctantly admit to some bitter truths: 1) The world is over-supplied with crude oil right now, if you measure it only on an as-needed basis. 2) To have a wee bit laid aside for a major disruption, the supply-demand ratio is just about right. 3) The current price is artificially low for Saudi Arabia and Oman and Nigeria and Iraq to balance their budgets, and also too low to keep most shale drillers from going broke. 4) Ergo, we're going to wallow out about $137 B worth of junk bonds floated to cowboys with more hat than cattle, see the super-majors gobble up most of those big-hat shale companies, and watch the Saudi scorpion sting a host of too-rich guys in the Saudi Aramco IPO. 5) About year 2022, we're going to probably be wondering about two unusual monetary events: negative interest rates and why in the holy hell we sold our Tier One tight oil more cheaply than Starbucks coffee.
  40. 5 points
    Well, it sure does not cost $7 million to develop an oilsands extraction setup that will yield 93 bbl/d. There is lots and lots of oil in the Western oilsands, and as that technology develops, the USA and Canada will be able to flood the world with oil. My guess is that it will likely be cheap oil, also. Lots and lots of oil out there.
  41. 5 points
    Tell that to the Iranian people who have absolutely NO means of defending themselves and are not considered a threat by the people in power. Imagine, if you will, that the theocracy had to consider an armed population, even if that population only had small arms.
  42. 5 points
    It would be interesting to see you defend yourself against an armed intruder/criminal (yes, criminals will have guns regardless what the law is) with your pepper spray and taser.
  43. 5 points
    Clearly, we will never agree about guns. No problem. Carry on.
  44. 5 points
    Lol, Trump says US is # 1 one in carbon reduction and you go on a diatribe talking about how the US is the biggest baddass greenhouse emitter? Let me help you with English: reduction [rəˈdəkSH(ə)n] NOUN the action or fact of making a specified thing smaller or less in amount, degree, or size. big [lärj] ADJECTIVE of considerable size, extent, or intensity. https://www.dailywire.com/news/34848/study-us-leads-world-reducing-co2-emissions-while-james-barrett https://www.dailywire.com/news/34848/study-us-leads-world-reducing-co2-emissions-while-james-barrett The part you missed was Trump was talking about "reduction," instead you went on and on and on, painfully talking about "biggest", I had to go back a reread his tweet after reading your post because I thought I was going crazy, instead I realized how much time you wasted here.
  45. 5 points
    I do try to be objective in my analysis. Was the dropping of nukes on civilian populations a "war crime"? Objectively, yes. Yet, was there any other realistic resolution, given the mentality of the Japanese military? Unfortunately, no. This is what happens when you let the fanatical crazies take over. It happened in Japan, it is happening now in Venezuela, in Iran, and in China. And it reaffirms the wisdom of personal ownership of firearms, the last bulwark against the fanatical crazies. Cheers.
  46. 5 points
    People who do not understand the reasoning behind the Electoral College system, and do not bother to educate themselves, will forever decry foul play when their candidate losses an election. The same applies to those who scream democracy without realizing that the US has always been a republic.
  47. 5 points
    Electoral college was setup for this exact reason to stop a major city or cities in a few states deciding what happens to the 50 states. The USA is a republic not a democracy technically.
  48. 5 points
    God Bless the UK for desiring to be a sovereign nation again! Savoring those globalist tears as well.
  49. 5 points
    Does anyone realize that shia Iran and its allies are the #1 killers of Sunni Al Qaeda and Sunni ISIS? The Saudi related Sunnis are the ones who have directly attacked the USA in the USA
  50. 5 points
    In 1940 - 41 the USA placed an export embargo on oil being sold to Japan. The idea was to force Japan to abide by certain US wishes in Asia, specifically to pull back from invading its neighbors. That one erupted in open war, which is not plausible today. But it demonstrates that the US could, if it came to that, end up embargoing sales of oil to china. At that point, there is no way for the Chinese to obtain US oil at any price, even by devaluing the currency. Right now China is attempting to strike at key US political domains to undermine the Trump re-election campaign. But that presumes that (a) Trump will seek the nomination for a 2nd term, and (b) there there is no serious challenger from within the republican Party, and (C) that the Democrats run a marginal candidate that cannot garner votes from the general population. And it also assumes that the affected vendors will not develop alternate markets for their products and will be unable to change their products to obtain new customers. Those are all quite risky assumptions. Right now some farmers have gone from corn to soybeans. The Chinese shut down US purchases of soy. OK, so the farmers can go back to corn, or the Federal Govt buys soy under a price-support system and the soy is re-sold to US producers of meats such as pigs, or the soy is re-sold into other countries that seek soy for animal feed, such as Europe or Pakistan, even if discounted, or the soy is converted into oil by pressing and new uses are found for that material. For example, soy-based plastic packaging film would appear to have the advantage of being bio-degradable. Announcing a govt prize of say $5 million for the development of a new use would immediately stimulate a horde of inventors to get to it. What China is doing is risking permanently being removed from the US customer lists. Because America and Americans are so technically innovative, that is a risky bet to place. Not one I would do.