Jeffrey Brown

While it's certainly true that on a total liquids basis the US is a net exporter, because of biofuels production and refinery gains, the fact remains that based on the most recent EIA data (weekly supply estimates, four-week running average), the US is a net crude oil importer, with US refineries dependent on net crude oil imports of 2.3 million bpd. To put this in perspective, it's about 50% larger than the peak crude oil production rate from Prudhoe Bay, the largest conventional oil field ever found in the US. Meanwhile, Hart Energy puts the US oil production decline rate at 34%/year. In the following article, they estimate that we need to replace 100% of current US oil production every three years, just to maintain current production: "Why US Shale Production Declines Are Higher Than You Might Think." In other words, Hart Energy estimates that US producers need to put on line the productive equivalent of the peak production from Prudhoe Bay about every seven weeks, just to offset declines from existing production.

Two Different Ways to Calculate Net Exports (Gets you to the same place) (mbpd = million bpd and assuming no refinery gains) Production Land 9 mbpd of production No refining capacity 5 mbpd of consumption Gross exports: 9 mbpd (Crude to Refinery Land) Gross imports: 5 mbpd (Refined Liquids from Refinery Land) Net exports = Gross Exports Less Gross Imports = 9 - 5 = 4 Net exports = Production Less Consumption = 9 - 5 = 4 Refinery Land 1 mbpd of production 10 mbpd of refining capacity 5 mbpd of consumption Gross exports (Refined Liquids to Production Land): 5 mbpd Gross imports (Crude from Production Land): 9 mbpd Net exports = Gross Exports Less Gross Imports = 5 - 9 = -4 (4 mbpd of net imports) Net exports = Production Less Consumption = 1 - 5 = -4 (4 mbpd of net imports)

Per the BP data base, Saudi total liquids consumption increased from 2.1 million bpd in 2005 to 3.6 million bpd 2021, although consumption was basically flat from 2019 to 2021.

The available data show that the volume of net oil exports that Saudi Arabia has delivered to importing counties has been below their 2005 level of net exports for 16 years. I'm defining net oil exports as total petroleum liquids production less total liquids consumption (BP data base). It's an imperfect, but consistent, metric. Incidentally, BP has released their 2022 report, with annual production and consumption data through 2021. Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net oil exports increased from 6.4 to 8.7 million bpd. As annual Brent Crude oil prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 over a three-year period from 2011 to 2013, Saudi net oil exports declined from 8.7 million bpd in 2005 to an average of 7.5 million bod for 2011 to 2013. They were at 8.3 million bpd in 2019, when the average annual Brent crude oil price was $64. Their net exports fell to 7.4 million bpd in 2020, as the average annual Brent crude oil price fell to $42, as the Pandemic considerably reduced global oil demand. However, as the average annual Brent crude oil price increased by about 70%, from $42 in 2020 to $71 in 2021, Saudi Arabia's net exports were flat year over year, at 7.4 million bpd--15% below their 2005 level.

It looks like we might finally find out once and for all if Saudi Arabia can actually exceed their 2005 net export rate of 8.7 million bpd on a sustained basis (total petroleum liquids, BP data base as of June, 2021). Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net oil exports increased from 6.4 to 8.7 million bpd. As annual Brent Crude oil prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 over a three-year period from 2011 to 2013, Saudi net oil exports declined from 8.7 million bpd in 2005 to an average of 7.5 million bod for 2011 to 2013. They were at 8.3 million bpd in 2019 (because of the pandemic effects, I'm largely ignoring the 2020 data for now). However, the real story is what is hidden, to-wit, the ongoing rate of depletion in the post-2005 supply of Saudi CNE (Cumulative Net Exports of oil). I have compared Saudi Arabia, 2005 to 2012, to what I call the Six-Country Case History, i.e., six net oil exporters that hit or approach zero net oil exports from 1995 to 2002 (see attached chart). The only number that analysts seem to pay attention to is the top line production number, and from 1995 to 1999, the Six Countries' combined production increased, but in that time period, they had already shipped more than half of their post-1995 CNE. My premise is that Saudi Arabia, post-2005, is analogous to the Six Countries, 1995 to 1999, i.e., rising production, but falling net exports, because of rising domestic consumption--with hidden, but enormous, rates of depletion in their remaining supplies of Cumulative Net Exports of oil. Saudi Arabia's rate of decline in what I call the Export Capacity Index Ratio or ECI Ratio (ratio of production to consumption) has slowed in recent years, but if we extrapolate the 2005 to 2019 rate of decline in their ECI Ratio (which basically assumes no decline in production for the indefinite future), an optimistic estimate is that Saudi Arabia has already shipped about half of their total supply of post-2005 Cumulative Net Exports of oil. Note that although the estimates of remaining CNE can vary with time, the actual CNE depletion metric is always a one-way street, i.e., the supply of remaining Saudi post-2005 CNE is by definition always declining year by year; it's just a question of at what rate? And the CNE depletion rate tends to accelerate with time. For example, the Six Countries shipped 14% of Post-1995 CNE in 1996, and in 1999 they shipped 22% of remaining Post-1995 CNE--even as production in 1999 was higher than 1995. A simple analogy would someone with a million dollars in the bank, maintaining his lifestyle by withdrawing $100,000 per year. In year one, he withdraws $100,000, 10% of the balance. In year six, he withdraws his usual $100,000---and on the surface everything seems fine--but in year six he withdrew 20% of the remaining balance, i.e., an accelerating rate of depletion in the remaining bank balance, even as he maintained his lifestyle with his usual $100,000 withdrawal. I think that is basically what is happening in the net oil importing countries like the US, i.e. we are maintaining our lifestyle via an accelerating rate of depletion in the remaining supply of post-2005 Global Cumulative Net Exports of oil. Note that while the US was technically a net oil exporter on a total liquids basis in 2021, we still had significant net crude oil imports, ranging from 2.2 million bpd to 4.2 million bpd, on a four week running average basis. This corresponded to about 15% to 27% of crude oil inputs into US refineries in 2021. In January of this year, we had net crude oil imports of about 4 million bpd, corresponding to 26% of crude inputs into US refineries.

Axios: Coronavirus cases are rising all over the world https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-rising-around-world-europe-india-7e3e9d42-4eba-4b16-8a35-490e6f7a864c.html Brutal surges in coronavirus cases are hitting much of the world all at once, from Europe to Brazil to India. The big picture: Cases are rising just about everywhere, in a swift reversal from early February, when they were falling on every continent. They're also now ticking up in the U.S., which is in the midst of a race between vaccines and variants. Brazil is recording by far the world's highest daily death tolls, which far exceed anything seen earlier in the pandemic. Hospitals are at or exceeding capacity in nearly every state, AP reports. A new, more contagious “Brazilian variant” poses a grave threat, including to the U.S. Nairobi, Kenya, has entered a partial lockdown, with schools and bars closed and domestic travel halted. Recorded cases and deaths in Kenya remain relatively low, but high test positivity rates and surging hospital admissions have alarmed the government. German officials are warning that the third wave there could be the most devastating yet. Go deeper: CDC director warns of "impending doom" https://www.axios.com/cdc-fourth-wave-db0a4d6e-3942-4719-9743-62912e5557e0.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosworld&stream=world

Link to podcasts with Dr. Michael Osterholm follows. A year ago, he warned that total COVID-19 fatalities could approach 500,000, and a lot of people thought that he was nuts. Note that he has been a long-time proponent of keeping K-8 schools open, but because of the variants, he is now taking a much more cautious approach. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-osterholm-update-covid-19/id1504360345

If Trump had followed the South Korean model, it wouldn't have been necessary to shut down a large part of the economy, and he would not have caused the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. Instead, Trump--and his sycophantic followers--denied reality, with the obvious consequences. Ayn Rand in 1961: "He is free to make the wrong choice, but not free to succeed with it. He is free to evade reality, he is free to unfocus his mind and stumble blindly down any road he pleases, but not free to avoid the abyss he refuses to see. Knowledge, for any conscious organism, is the means of survival; to a living consciousness, every “is” implies an “ought.” Man is free to choose not to be conscious, but not free to escape the penalty of unconsciousness: destruction." WSJ: How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus (9/25/20) https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-south-korea-on-how-to-manage-covid-11601044329 Excerpt: “South Korea appears to have cracked the code for managing the coronavirus. Its solution is straightforward, flexible and relatively easy to replicate. . . .As a result, South Korea never had to mandate a lockdown, so restaurants and business were able to stay open, cushioning the blow to the economy.”

Covid Brazil variant TRIPLES risk of death in young people, figures suggest https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14495922/covid-brazil-variant-triples-risk-death-young-people/

Why are more young people getting sick with Covid-19 in Brazil? https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/24/americas/brazil-youth-covid-19-intl-latam/index.html Excerpt: São Paulo (CNN)It took only 10 days from start to finish, from the time 28-year-old Graciane da Silva got sick to the time she died. She was alone when she passed away in a Rio de Janeiro Hospital -- her mom, Maria da Penha da Silva Siqueira, thinks about that often. "It never crossed our mind that it would happen to her," said da Silva Siqueira. "It was too fast. This virus does not let us say goodbye." Da Silva, who left behind a 4-year-old son, died of Covid-19 in June of last year. At the time, hers was a slightly more unusual death. During the first part of Brazil's struggle with the coronavirus, it was the elderly who made up the majority of those who were getting sick and dying from Covid-19. But since the new year, Brazil has descended into its worst days of this pandemic so far. Daily death and case numbers have shattered previous records. And amid that surge, a worrying pattern has emerged—more young people seem to be getting severely ill and dying from Covid-19, doctors tell CNN. The question is why: Is a new variant infecting more young people and making them sicker? Are young people behaving in ways that make them more likely to become infected? Could it be some combination of both?

I haven't seen any dead bodies on my street either, but I don't think that means that about 550,000 people haven't died from COVID-19, most of them unnecessarily dead because of Trump's depraved indifference lies about the virus. BTW, an excerpt from the WSJ article up the thread on the P1 variant: In Araraquara, 19 people under the age of 40 have died from Covid-19 this year, or 8.75% of all fatalities from the disease, compared with only one person in 2020, representing 1.1%. One of them was Jorge Carbone, a 35-year-old store manager with no previous health problems. Less than two weeks after complaining of a sore throat, he was dead. “The pain of losing him is unbearable,” said Luzia Abud, his 50-year-old aunt. “People are just disappearing,” Marcos Oling, 47, an Uber driver in Porto Alegre, became infected with P.1 and has been hooked up to oxygen for more than a week, most of which he spent on a wheelchair for lack of spare beds. He said he is frustrated by those not taking the virus seriously. “People think nothing will happen to them,” he said.

Former federal prosecutor: Trump admitted to '2nd degree murder' in Woodward interview (September, 2020) https://news.yahoo.com/former-federal-prosecutor-trump-admitted-190200145.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLnlhaG9vLmNvbS9taWtlLXdhbGxhY2Utc3VzcGVuZGVkLWluZGVmaW5pdGVseS1ieS1uYXNjYXItZm9yLXNvY2lhbC1tZWRpYS1wb3N0LTIyMDkzNDI1Ni5odG1sP2d1Y2VfcmVmZXJyZXI9YUhSMGNITTZMeTl1WlhkekxubGhhRzl2TG1OdmJTOXVaWFpsY2kxelpXVnVMV0Z1ZVhSb2FXNW5MVzl5WldkdmJpMTBiM2R1Y3kweE5UUTROVEE1T0RJdWFIUnRiQSZndWNlX3JlZmVycmVyX3NpZz1BUUFBQUFUb3Q5MFhHRWFFRkZvNjJrRnozN3ZSTFBjV1kzVzQ0SDlPWmJiMTJNT1Y1WFRFT3NTV19wS1BDYmhrMThUekQxc2VpZG1oQldWeURtTHFmRVREd2NlWFpiMXV4MTJEUkVXel9rR0JHWjI1LWd6eTFiejRmSDZZU1ZneWU1S3JMV0k5WUxaWkxfREdUX1JKV2JRYU0yU1p4bjJfcWlvbVdKX2FjWUUxN1oxOA&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMdckgbmlYsXWHn-gmhjHbdB7WTOmF1itUapXFSdQCBg5kZUZxeKuDs0kZ8tsyx0347-ToN_oJ0lxY0gGTvzc1zvm1MogNOX-RTuNPxGJNWKVFhJYNyl3Y_f_uF95Dv7fLjM2MAnbl9x6TR71xLDjYUi1r9RfVgijAWDn-t6rRBv Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner thinks President Trump's coronavirus admissions should land him in prison. . . "There are only two elements for second-degree murder. The first is you caused the death of another," Kirschner said Thursday. That factor was fulfilled because Trump "was lying to the American people about the danger this virus posed," and now 190,000 people are dead, Kirschner said. "The second element is the intent element," which would "get tricky if we didn't have Trump's incriminating admissions," he continued. But "in my opinion as a career prosecutor," Trump admitted to "conscious disregard" of the risk his coronavirus downplay created, thus admitting to "second-degree murder" that he "must be held accountable" for, Kirschner finished.

Former federal prosecutor: Trump admitted to '2nd degree murder' in Woodward interview (September, 2020) https://news.yahoo.com/former-federal-prosecutor-trump-admitted-190200145.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=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&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMdckgbmlYsXWHn-gmhjHbdB7WTOmF1itUapXFSdQCBg5kZUZxeKuDs0kZ8tsyx0347-ToN_oJ0lxY0gGTvzc1zvm1MogNOX-RTuNPxGJNWKVFhJYNyl3Y_f_uF95Dv7fLjM2MAnbl9x6TR71xLDjYUi1r9RfVgijAWDn-t6rRBv Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner thinks President Trump's coronavirus admissions should land him in prison. . . "There are only two elements for second-degree murder. The first is you caused the death of another," Kirschner said Thursday. That factor was fulfilled because Trump "was lying to the American people about the danger this virus posed," and now 190,000 people are dead, Kirschner said. "The second element is the intent element," which would "get tricky if we didn't have Trump's incriminating admissions," he continued. But "in my opinion as a career prosecutor," Trump admitted to "conscious disregard" of the risk his coronavirus downplay created, thus admitting to "second-degree murder" that he "must be held accountable" for, Kirschner finished.

Covid Hospital Cases Rise in 25 States as CDC Sees Fourth Wave https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/covid-hospital-cases-rise-in-25-states-and-patients-are-younger Excerpt: Hospitalizations related to Covid-19 are climbing in half of the U.S., the latest sign that the nation’s fourth upswing in infections is underway. Patients are younger, and their numbers are rising even in places with high levels of vaccine penetration and past infections. Rochelle Walensky, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, fought back tears at a press briefing Monday as she outlined warning signals, saying she was frightened about such a fourth wave. “We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope,” she said, “but right now I’m scared.” The seven-day average of hospital admissions with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 increased in 25 states plus the nation’s capital and Puerto Rico last week, compared with same period a week earlier, according to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data through Saturday. The nationwide seven-day average rose by 1.8% from a week earlier to 10,115. The numbers began rising last week -- albeit subtly -- for the first time since Jan. 11. The most dramatic surge has come in Michigan, with admissions up 50%, to an average of 379 a day. The situation isn’t as bad as what the state saw in November and December, but it’s deteriorating quickly. The next-worst momentum was in South Dakota, where daily admissions rose by 40% to an average of 28, according to the HHS data, which includes both adults and pediatric hospitalizations. South Dakota’s new upswing should end speculation about whether herd immunity is near. The state has given at least one shot of a Covid-19 vaccine to 34% of the population, and more than 47% of the state had already been infected as of late February, according to estimates by independent data scientist Youyang Gu. North Dakota, another state with exceptionally high levels of vaccination and past estimated infections, is also seeing an upswing in hospitalizations. Nationwide, about two in three patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 are now younger than 65, according to data updated Friday from Covid-Net, a surveillance network covering 14 states.

WSJ: How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus (9/25/20) https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-south-korea-on-how-to-manage-covid-11601044329 Excerpt: “South Korea appears to have cracked the code for managing the coronavirus. Its solution is straightforward, flexible and relatively easy to replicate. . . .As a result, South Korea never had to mandate a lockdown, so restaurants and business were able to stay open, cushioning the blow to the economy.”