Gary LeBlanc

Jan 22 2020

  WTI ( March ) is currently $57.15. Short 8 March contracts at $58.05. Will cover 2 March short contracts when Sept WTI - Sept 54 put = 50.00. As of now that equation is $55.38 - 3.99 = 51.39 so maybe if WTI ( Sept ) gets to $54.00 it will be time to start the process of unwinding my short position and to begin building a long position strategy. WTI ( March ) currently 56.86.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

Hi Gary,

Nice to see you here. After a dream I had last night, I decided to look you up. Good to see you found another outlet, I missed your posts on investingdotcom. Now I know where I can read your posts and thoughts. I will stop by often and read what you have to say. I am most interested. I wish you the best.

In case you were wondering, in my dream I was discussing your strategy with another person and we were trying to establish an exit point.

Hi Dexter. Glad you showed up. Many traders try to adapt my strategy to retail trading of WTI. Not too sure of their success rate. My exit point is the timeframe between options expiration and the actual expiration of the contract and not a specific price. The contracts are necessary for me to short options against. It's all about the options. The contracts are just a requirement. On my last cycle up I was long 2 contracts each of Nov Dec Jan Feb. As the November contracts expired I shorted 2 March contracts giving me 2 long contracts in Dec Jan Feb all with puts/calls written against them and the 2 short March contracts. When the 2 Dec contracts expired I shorted 2 more March contracts at a little higher price raising my short price on the 4 short March position. Same thing with the 2 Jan contracts at still a higher price to raise my short price a little more on the 6 short March contracts. After this WTI made a peak and when the 2 Feb contracts expired I shorted yet 2 more March contracts, but this time it was on the downslope from the peak giving me my average of $58.05 for 8 short March contracts. And that's where my portfolio stands as of today. My first cover of 2 March contracts will happen when the value of the Sept 54 put subtracted from the price of the Sept futures price equals $50.00. 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

So close...

On 1/21/2020 at 6:58 AM, OilProspector said:

Well that did not turn out well... reversed @ 58.34 short ~ looking for +200t

Closed out @ 56.70 (+164t) ~ now just wait for next signal... with ES trades nice 4k day!

Edited January 22, 2020 by OilProspector

Jan 22 2020

 Made no trades today so booked zero trading profits, but WTI account is up $13,500 today. API comes out in a few minutes. Expecting a 4-6 mb build in RBOB.

"IF" I was trading 8 cars I would have been up $13,120 in CL for today (opened trade yesterday). Some day. I would still have to back out the losing trade I had prior. Just now hit my +200t target and hit my 4th target mentioned earlier. Some days the plan comes together.

Placed a Stop at $57.45 for all 8 March contracts which closed at $56.09 today. Fourteen hours until NYSE opens tomorrow. I have a position. You do not. Nothing wrong with taking profits. You'll never go broke, but from my experience trading retail it's beneficial to use some sort of trailing stop instead of using a "target". It has consistently produced more profit using that as an exit strategy. As a result of our different exit strategies I am still short 8 March contracts and you have the task of finding another entry point. Good luck.

Totally different trading styles ~ while you are locked in one-direction I play the waves. Sine-waves. So if and/or when a retracement comes I will catch it while you will see your paper profits potentially disappear. Also, my target of +200t is based on empirical back-testing. It normally hits the +200t and then there is another signal going back the "other" way. Time will tell. More than one way to skin a cat. Best of luck to you.

I short as a hobby while WTI declines in price to a more favorable long-entry point. My position of 8 short March contracts will generate approximately $35,000 in the 4 weeks that I anticipate holding the position. This profit is dwarfed by the amount I will generate once I get back to a bullish bias with options working. The $35K was earmarked for Super Bowl tickets in case the New Orleans Saints ( I live in New Orleans ) made it that far. They didn't. Gotta plan ahead though, right ? My strategy is much less labor intensive which is by design since I sail out of contact for weeks at a time. As you can see I make minimal number of trades. It's nice not to have to be chained to the computer and still make a 6-figure income.

Gary respect from one of your original wolf packie . Looking at your trade now is brilliant . What’s brilliant is your resolve and true insight . I learn again . So I am in a load of trouble with large long positions . But I am rescuing myself with a equally large short . I can hold forever no problem . Question , your 8 March short you will hold for till end of contract in about 4 weeks and go long at that time ? Or just evaluate at that time ? 

Could be 45 by then ?

..and you still need to make up for the paper losses on your DWT trade (RIG you covered at a loss)... if I remember right $5.30 is your b/e? 😉 at least it is heading back in the right direction!

Edited January 23, 2020 by OilProspector

Jan 23 2020

 AKA: Thanks. My exit strategy from my March WTI strategy is posted a few days ago in the diary.

OP: Yes. My DWT position has an order to sell 1,000 shares at $4.80 currently. It is currently 4.50. I will day trade the funds back into DWT if the opportunity arises.

Lowered Stop for all 8 short March contracts ( short price of $58.05 ) to $56.50.

Update: Lowered cover price on 8 short March contracts ( shorted at $58.05 ) to $55.75 from 56.50.

Update: 1/24 1,000 shares of DWT were sold at $4.80. Purchase price was 5.30 but will give me funds to possibly trade.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

Jan 23 2020 8:38 a.m.

 WTI currently 55.70 and RBOB is 1.55. Expecting a 4-6 mb build in RBOB today.

 

Love being chained to the computer!

ES (Main)+CL(minor) ~ just playing the (sine) waves. Add in VSA and BINGO!

Jan 23 2020

 Stop kicked in to cover 8 short March contracts at $55.75. Shorted at 58.05. Profit: $10,400. Will reposition possibly higher.

You weathered the storm... this time! 😉  Nice trade!  By the way, I think your math is off.

Edited January 23, 2020 by OilProspector

Sorry. You're right. Kicked in at $55.75. Yay...lol. Busy traveling. The PCPR for March-June option is 1.99 which is starting to be elevated. The imbalance is $1,794,000,000 If the options market makers could rally WTI when the NY options market is closed they could make half that. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

Exited 5500 DWT at $4.70, (when WTI was @ $54.85, close enough to my $54 target) entry was $3.94, total profit $4180. Not Gary-level profits, but getting there. 

Placed order to short 8 March contracts at $58.05. All in cash in my WTI acct. WTI currently $55.50. Will also buy 2 Aug or Sept contracts when the 54 put subtracted from the price is $50.00. This has a much better chance of happening, but I'm indifferent really. 

Congrats. That is an awesome trade. This is the way I look at it. When I started my goal was to make the money in the matket to allow me to quit my job earlier than 65. Who wants to work until they're too old to appreciate free time ? First it was a month and then those became years. Tomorrow I will be trading from Lafitte's Blacksmith on Bourbon St. I have an order at $4.80 for DWT. Partial.  Will re-establish if it pulls back to $4.30.

Nice work, Gary.  It's been fun watching you navigate your trades.  Shorting options looks to have some major stones if you have the funds to swing it.  Good luck and look forward to following your trading plan. 

Hi Dan,

   Not that difficult. Just capital intensive. Makes 99.99% shy away. The volatility in the crude market produces enormous premiums in the options market. 

Exceeded weekly goal... Actual trying to get to six figures a MONTH. Time will tell. It's just a goal.

Have a great weekend all!

Edited January 24, 2020 by OilProspector