Gary LeBlanc

Thanks Gary.

Jan 28 2020

Bought 2 June WTI contracts at $53.60. Sold to Open 2 June WTI 54 puts at $4.03. Net purchase price $49.57. Cash Balance : $83,000. Currently long 2 March contracts 2 April contracts 2 May contracts and 2 June contracts all with 54 puts shorted against them. Now it's time for a slow grind up.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

1 hour ago, Gary LeBlanc said:

We use the 3 months total of the ( Total Put $$/Total Call $$) × ( Total Put $$ - Total Call $$ ). A 4.0 or higher is indicative of a bottom. That's not to imply that it goes up, it's just that it won't go lower. More than likely base.

Gary  - What's the number to indicate a top?

Think I'm doing it wrong.  I get a number in the millions.  Not a small whole number > 4.0. 

That's correct. My fault. Left out a step. The "imbalance" is calculated in " Billions of dollars". We also use the 3-month total.  So a PCPR of 2.69 multiplied by $1.69 Billion imbalance = LBI. The first month gets priority because once options expire that opportunity is gone. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

  The PCPR gravitates towards 1.0. That indicates balance in the options market. The LBI indicates the severity of the imbalance in reference to the premiums the market makers stand to make. A value of "4.0" would equate to a very "sold off" level. The reciprocal is used when calculating PCPR values less than 1.0 which indicates an "overbought" level.

Thanks Gary. 

Jan 28 2020

    The 2 March contracts purchased at $52.67 yesterday closed at 53.98 today for a gain of $1.31 or $2,620 for the pair. The 2 March WTI 54 puts shorted at $2.67 closed at 1.75 for a gain of $.92 or $1,840 for a combined gain of $4,460 for the March strategy after one day.

   The 2 Apr contracts purchased at 53.40 yesterday closed at 54.00 for a gain of $.60 or $1,200. The 2 Apr 54 puts shorted at $3.26 closed at 2.67 for a gain of $.59 or $1,180 for a combined gain of $2,3800 for the April strategy after one day.

   The 2 May contracts purchased at $53.21 closed at 53.97 for a gain of $.76 or $1,520. The 2 May 54 puts shorted at 3.77 closed at 3.55 today for a gain of $.22 or $440.

   The 2 June contracts purchased today at 53.60 closed at 53.81 for a gain of $.21 or $420. The 2 June 54 puts shorted at $4.03 closed at 3.82 for a gain of $.21 or $420 for a combined total of $840.

   Total gain for the March-June strategy is a total of $9,640.

  

Jan 29 2020

  As of 10:12 CST the March contract was at $53.52. This is a gain of $.85 over the purchase price of $52.67. The Mar 54 puts shorted against the contracts is currently $1.89, down from the Sell to Open price of $2.67 for a gain of $.78. The combined total profit for the 2 March contracts is $3,260.

Gary, I took your advice and got in 10 long July contracts, added 5 more sell to open July puts. Total 10 each. Both got in green and sold them for $2600 profit. 

Now looking to re-enter in better position. Orders in for 2 April $55 sell to open puts at $3.6, 2 May $55 sell to open puts at $4.1 and 2 Jun $54.5 sell to open puts at $4.27. Jun executed.

Looking to buy long futures contracts against all.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Mario Andretti

Good luck. My positions are pretty close to yours. My March 54 puts will have a Buy to Close price of the Sell to Open price multiplied by 20% is approximately 50 cents. I have an order to Sell to Open 2 June 58 calls at $3.00. Then I'll do May 58 calls at $3.00. Then Apr and March if possible.

I added 2 July $54 sell to open puts at $4.54 and 2 long May future contracts.

I'm a little concerned, my sell to open puts and not covered, they are naked. 

 

I can't sell naked puts or calls.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

Jan 29 2020 4:34 pm EST

The March contract is at $53.12. This is a gain of 45 cents. The March 54 put is at 2.13. That is a gain of $.54. More than the contract itself has made. The combined total profit per contract is $.99.

  The April contract is at $53.20 for a loss of $.20. The Apr 54 put is at $3.04. That is a gain of of $.22 for a combined gain of 2 cents. Notice that the options strategy provided the profit for the whole trade.

4 hours ago, Gary LeBlanc said:

Jan 29 2020 4:34 pm EST

The March contract is at $53.12. This is a gain of 45 cents. The March 54 put is at 2.13. That is a gain of $.54. More than the contract itself has made. The combined total profit per contract is $.99.

  The April contract is at $53.20 for a loss of $.20. The Apr 54 put is at $3.04. That is a gain of of $.22 for a combined gain of 2 cents. Notice that the options strategy provided the profit for the whole trade.

So are you saying your $9,640 virtually evaporated ?

Not at all what I'm trying to communicate. I am trying to point out that without the short-option strategy a buy and hold strategy would be in a loss at this time. Net profit is $1,380. Not "evaporated". Just bought these contracts this week. I have no intention on selling them until after options expiration. It's all about the options. Fixate on those. Retail traders fixate on the up and downs. I fixate on the "time" since it's so much more valuable. When the options expire I ditch the contracts. The contracts are just a vessel.

I understand you have time on your side to "hopefully" ride out any adverse move against your directional play... just always be ready for the "black swan" (which you have already, in the past, experienced) ~ I look forward to watching your trade(s) as they progress...

Deep in red

I have been waiting to go long ES for hours! Damn falling knife. I'm lucky to still be in the green today. Haven't touched CL yet today ~ just had a big jump up...

I believe you. We do two things differently. I bought 8 contracts for about $400,000 as a result of using no margin and being able to short 54 puts against all 8. Just a waiting game for me. The orders I have next is the Buy to Close the 2 March 54 puts at 65 cents, but I won't execute this order until 58 calls are Sold to Open. Sold to Open March 54 puts at $2.67. Also waiting is an order to Sell to Open 2 June 58 calls at $3.00. 

Was the spike up in CL a stop run? If so, we could have lower prices to come. Tik-Toc.

Looks like no one wants to be long over the weekend... except for AMZN.

When does the PPT show up?!

 

Need just one more push down (ES)

Got It! 5k day ~ too bad ES is not like this everyday.

 

Best week to date... Too many trades though ~ My normal protection stops after in-profit hit too many times (damn reversals only to go back my direction)...

Edited January 31, 2020 by OilProspector