Gary LeBlanc

OilProspector + 1,

Congratulations.

 

Short money rolls in fast. This current sell-off has been even more drastic in comparison to other sell-offs. It took 52 days for WTI to go from $54.77 to the peak of $65+ but only 14 days to get back to 54.77. Normally it would take 30-35 days on average to get back to square 1 at $54.77. 

On 1/22/2020 at 6:26 PM, Gary LeBlanc said:

I short as a hobby while WTI declines in price to a more favorable long-entry point. My position of 8 short March contracts will generate approximately $35,000 in the 4 weeks that I anticipate holding the position. This profit is dwarfed by the amount I will generate once I get back to a bullish bias with options working. The $35K was earmarked for Super Bowl tickets in case the New Orleans Saints ( I live in New Orleans ) made it that far. They didn't. Gotta plan ahead though, right ? My strategy is much less labor intensive which is by design since I sail out of contact for weeks at a time. As you can see I make minimal number of trades. It's nice not to have to be chained to the computer and still make a 6-figure income.

So should Drew Brees retire?

Eventually. No one plays forever. Brees had the best season ever according to PFF in 2019. Saints went 13-3. He sees the possibility of a Super Bowl. That's what he plays for.

On 11/25/2019 at 3:04 PM, Ward Smith said:

 

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Troy kruger

Jan 27 2020

 Appears I will be buying WTI contracts today. Have a total of $481,520 to buy contracts. WTI ( March ) is currently trading at $52.70. My goal is to be long 10 contracts with 54 puts shorted against them. I will start by buying 2 March contracts at $52.00 and then shorting 2 March 54 puts against them. Then I'll wait. Good luck in your trading today.

Jan 27 2020

Update:

Bought 2 March WTI contracts at $52.67. Sold to Open 2 March 54 puts at $2.67. Net Purchase Price is $50.00.

Good Luck Gary.  Will be fun to see you work with a clean slate.

Thanks Dan. Once you see me set up my strategies you'll understand that it's extremely easy. Like I've said all along the biggest obstacle is the amount of capital required. My March options strategy is under development. Will look to establish April strategy at a Net Purchase Price of $49.00. Cash balance: $381, 500. Eight ( wishful thinking on my part ) more contracts to buy. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

23 hours ago, Gary LeBlanc said:

Eventually. No one plays forever. Brees had the best season ever according to PFF in 2019. Saints went 13-3. He sees the possibility of a Super Bowl. That's what he plays for.

Well that was a non-committal answer.

Maybe I misunderstood to question.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

40 minutes ago, Gary LeBlanc said:

Jan 27 2020

Update:

Bought 2 March WTI contracts at $52.67. Sold to Open 2 March 54 puts at $2.67. Net Purchase Price is $50.00.

As they say "buy when there is blood in the streets"...

Jan 27 2020

Bought 2 Apr WTI contracts at $53.40. Sold to Open 2 Apr WTI 54 puts at $3.26 giving me a Net Purchase Price of $50.16. Portfolio consists of 2 March contracts at a Net Purchase Price of $50.00. Short 2 March 54 puts at $2.67. 2 April contracts at a Net Purchase Price of $50.16. Short 2 April 54 puts at $3.26. Cash Balance: $281,160. So as of now it looks like I'll be able to have 9 contracts with about $30K left over. Only 4 in my pocket currently. Still work to do. Trying to be patient.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

Jan 27 2020

Bought 2 May contracts at $53.21. Sold to Open 2 May 54 puts at $3.77. Net Purchase Price is $49.44. Cash Balance : $181,160.

OVX hit 40 ~ premiums must be nice and fat...

Jan 28 2020

 When I buy contracts I automatically short the 54 puts against them. I sell the 58 calls against them at $3.00. Everything is predetermined which is perfect. The OVX comes into play when I'm covering the short-call positions. Looking for sub 30 in that case. PCPR gets attention.

Gary, Do you buy the futures contract separate and then turn around and do covered short puts against them ? 

Yes. Within minutes of each other. My next order is to Sell to Open 2 58 calls at $3.00 for each month. Far from there.

OVX is loosing strength and premiums are shrinking . I sold to open 5, $54 July naked puts at $4.23 for fun. My account needs an upgrade (waiting for approval) to allow me to do futures covered calls and puts. 

You should make a note of the price of the July contract and theoretically buy it.

I think i got in too early and now i think that there is a possibility that oil will go down further from here. LBI imbalance ratio is at 4.74 indicating a trend change but it has been much higher in last cycle so i'm afraid to buy now. 

27 minutes ago, Mario Andretti said:

I think i got in too early and now i think that there is a possibility that oil will go down further from here. LBI imbalance ratio is at 4.74 indicating a trend change but it has been much higher in last cycle so i'm afraid to buy now. 

What is the LBI imbalance ratio?

It's part of Gary's secret of success that he shared with the wolf pups when he was on Investing. lol

They chase him away because he was taking down too much pray. Pups got fed well during those times. 

So how is it calculated?

We use the 3 months total of the ( Total Put $$/Total Call $$) × ( Total Put $$ - Total Call $$ ). A 4.0 or higher is indicative of a bottom. That's not to imply that it goes up, it's just that it won't go lower. More than likely base.