A lot of people have asked about doing a breakdown on Iran and how the USA is draw them out to be.
So today we are going to look at the US Iran conflict and see why we are in the position we are today.
Things we will be looking at in this breakdown are, the current state of economy, what countries play a part in the conflict, we’ll look at a timeline, how the American presidents got along with the different presidents or leaders in Iran, and to wrap things up I will share some of my thoughts on the conflict.
First let’s look at the current date of the Iranian economy where young Iranians are experiencing a 27% unemployment rate and university graduates are experiencing a 40% unemployment rate. Inflation is reported to being 40% but people are suspecting it being way higher. Professor Steve Hanke with the Johns Hopkins university, one of the worlds leading economists on inflation suspects the real inflation rate is 250% So what does this mean for the average consumer? In the last 12 months red meat prices are up 57% milk and eggs are up 37% and vegetables are up 47% The Iranian currency called the Rial has lost 60% of it’s value against the USD. In the last 12 months Iran has lost over 10 Billion USD in oil revenue.
Both the USA and the UK have played a very large part in recent Iranian history, so have Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia, Venezuela and Lebanon have also played a big role.
Here is the timeline of important events:
1908 -Anglo Persian oil company starts
1914 – British government buys 51% share in the company (the APOC later changed name to BP in 1954)
1925 – 1941 Reza Pahlavi becomes shah
1941 – 1979 Mohammad Reza Pahlavi takes over as shah
1951- Mosaddegh becomes prime minister
Parliament votes to nationalize oil
Britain imposes embargo, halts exports
1953 – CIA & MI6 orchestrated a coup
CIA documents released 60 years later confirming they were behind it
1963 – The shah launches the White Revolution
1. Between 1963 and 1978 the number of students increased from 1.5 million to 10 million
2. Total number of schools multiplied by 3.24 times
3. Education spending increased from 45 billion rials in 1963 – 1967 to 551 billion rials between 1973 – 1977
4. Women gained the right to vote
5. Women were able to run for office, serve as judges and work as lawyers for the first time
6. The marriage age for women was increased to 15 years
7. The personal income of Iranians skyrocketed
8. Oil revenue increased from $555 to over $20 billion by 1976
1978 – The shah kept discounting Ayatollah Khomeini’s influence
1979 – Shah & family forced to leave January 16th
1979 – Ayatollah Khomeini returns after 14 years in exile on February 1st
1979 – Revolutionary forces take the American Embassy on November 4th
1980 – The shah dies from cancer in Egypt on July 27th
1980 to 1988 – Iran/Iraq war – 1.5 million deaths (USA supported Iraq)
1981 – The American hostages are released just as Reagan is sworn into office on January 20th
1988 – Iran air bus shot down by USA killing 290 people including 66 children
1995 – Clinton places oil and trade sanctions on Iran
2003 – Iran suspends uranium enrichment program
Allows tougher UN inspections of its nuclear facilities
2006 to 2010 – USA succeeds 4 rounds of sanctions against Iran
1. Stop enriching uranium
2. Stop exporting weapons
3. Banking restrictions
4. Trade and travel restrictions
2012 – Iran currency loses 80% of its value since 2011
2015 – Obama nuclear deal $150 billion or $1.8 billion in cash
2018 – May 8th Trump withdrew from Obama deal
2018 – August 7th Trump enforces new round of sanctions on oil and banking
Traditionally the American presidents that are on the republican side have gotten along with the Iranian leaders if they have been more on the pro west side, but as soon as they have been on opposite sides of the specter there has been conflict. If there has been a Democratic president and the leaders in Iran have been pro west there have been some issues, but if the leaders of Iran have been anti west, then there has been little to no conflict. The shah got along with Eisenhower, Nixon, and Ford, but not with Kennedy, LBJ, or Carter.
A lot of people ask, “So Masih, do you think this is ever going to stop?” My answer is always “I don’t think so” because if you think about it, the more conflict there is in the middle east the more the US/UK and other countries have to get involved in the region in order to try to “fix it” giving them more power in the region. If there is no conflict in the middle east, then there is no reason for these countries to get involved leaving them no influence in the area.
Here are some of the formulas the superpowers have used to keep their influence in the region:
1. Creating sanctions with strong requests that cripple the economy they are targeting
2. They befriend and support the number 1 enemy of the country they are targeting
3. They infiltrate the nation with opposition creating chaos
4. They create internal division weakening the country allowing them to step in and take control easier.