China: COVAD-19 has ALREADY MUTATED AT LEAST ONCE. COVAD-19 is an RNA virus thus can mutate rapidly. Death rate now 3.4%

[BLA + 1,666]

"The more aggressive type of virus was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the Chinese city where COVID-19 was first detected late last year."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

A coronavirus is not an H1N1 influenza even though there are some similar symptoms. 

" Covad-19, a coronavirus like the viruses that caused SARS and MERS,  is an RNA virus - with RNA as its genetic material rather than DNA.

That means the virus blends with its host’s DNA, and can mutate rapidly."

Research institutions have been working on a Coronavirus vaccine since SARS in 2003.  The research slows down as funding dries up as Pharmaceuticals see no financial gain for private investment. 

They hope to start trials on a vaccine soon that would take at least 18 months.  If you've ever invested in biotech you know there are no sure things.

Therapeutics, as opposed to a vaccine, could be available early this fall.

By the way  .  .  .  SARS infected over 8000 people with 774 deaths for a 9.6% death rate. SARS lasted 9 months .

If COVAD-19 lasts 9 months could be over by Summer

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by BLA

[Bob D + 562]

FinTwit:

Notes from a Morgan Stanley hosted event with John Hopkins Chief Epidemiologist.

JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring...


My comment

World Population 8.0 Billion
Low case
40% infected 3.2 Billion
0.1% death rate 3.2 Million

High Case
60% infected 4.8 Billion
0.5% death rate 24.0 Million

[BLA + 1,666]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

FinTwit:

Notes from a Morgan Stanley hosted event with John Hopkins Chief Epidemiologist.

JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring...


My comment

World Population 8.0 Billion
Low case
40% infected 3.2 Billion
0.1% death rate 3.2 Million

High Case
60% infected 4.8 Billion
0.5% death rate 24.0 Million

" JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring... "

RD do you have report, presentation or article this info was reported ?

[Bob D + 562]

12 hours ago, BLA said:

" JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring... "

RD do you have report, presentation or article this info was reported ?

No   I can not find anything.  My post came from a man of high integrity.  I trust this information 100%.  But no, I don not have a report.  Below was posted as a response on another site:

David D. Celentano, ScD is the Charles Armstrong Chair in Epidemiology at JH. I couldn't find anything more on the event or Celentano presenting other than the FinTwit tweet itself. That doesn't discount what you've posted. The numbers look genuine to me. I just wish we could find a closer source other than the individual that made the tweet and as you follow the tweeted thread requests for a better source were not provided.   

Sorry.  If/when I find something ... I'll post here.

 

[BLA + 1,666]

59 minutes ago, Bob D said:

No   I can not find anything.  My post came from a man of high integrity.  I trust this information 100%.  But no, I don not have a report.  Below was posted as a response on another site:

David D. Celentano, ScD is the Charles Armstrong Chair in Epidemiology at JH. I couldn't find anything more on the event or Celentano presenting other than the FinTwit tweet itself. That doesn't discount what you've posted. The numbers look genuine to me. I just wish we could find a closer source other than the individual that made the tweet and as you follow the tweeted thread requests for a better source were not provided.   

Sorry.  If/when I find something ... I'll post here.

 

Just read an article written by Bill Gates for New England Medical Journal.  

He writes it will be a 100 year event, a pandemic.  

With deaths somewhere btw the Flu in 1950s of 1 Million deaths and 1918 Spanish Flu with 50 Million deaths. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

13 minutes ago, BLA said:

Just read an article written by Bill Gates for New England Medical Journal.  

He writes it will be a 100 year event, a pandemic.  

With deaths somewhere btw the Flu in 1950s of 1 Million deaths and 1918 Spanish Flu with 50 Million deaths. 

I haven't read the article but the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted a thing called "Event 201" with the World Economic Forum and Johns Hopkins in NYC back in October 2019. It was a tabletop pandemic using the coronavirus as the culprit. The experts came to a global mortality of 65 million. 

Again, though, these were thought likely to grim reap the most vulnerable among us, of which I am one. That would be >70, with underlying health problems, usually in close proximity (nursing home or assisted living). The didn't take into consideration the very rapid development of a messenger-RNA-directed vaccine, the likes of which Moderna, Inovio, Giliad, Regeneron, Pfizer, Novavax and others are developing.

For example, in the link I posted under "Don't Sneeze," this little company INO (Inovio) had a SARS platform already made, so they altered it as soon as they received the genomic sequence from the Chinese and within three hours had a vaccine agains COVID-19. Dr. Joseph Kim told the president on Tuesday about it. Several of the other companies have one too and they told the president about them. The president was exceptionally attentive and will fast-track this. 

If the vaccine comes through quickly and is safe and effective, this becomes much less a worry than the yearly Influenza epidemic. If not, well, Katy bar the door. I am personally excited about the RNA-directed vaccine, especially the speed at which it can be developed (for mutations), and suspect it can be safely administered and will be effective.