OPEC EXPECTED TO CUT - WHERES THE CUT FROM UNCLE SAM

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 3/9/2020 at 1:10 PM, James Regan said:

Someone better get their emergency meeting shit together as I’m sure half the shale patch are having heart attacks.

Did I really believe it would drop to 30s yes but to 30 and falling no.

This will get corrected very quickly I am sure good time to get in, I would say.

Nup. I reckon give it a Cpl weeks till it gets down to $20.

[Wombat + 1,028]

14 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Sanctions against Ven and Iran are political moves to get each country respectfully to join the human race. Iran doesn't need a nuclear bomb, and Venezuela needs oust Maduro. Trying to do this diplomatically without outright dropping troops and bombs on said countries.

Ruffneck, that ain't how geo-politics works. US needs markets for it's oil and gas and Ven and Iran are not the only ones who will get pushed aside. I reckon Iraq will be next.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 hours ago, James Regan said:

I can not argue with the above so it makes it even harder to reason why this sudden spat, I am no conspiracy theorist but this has political and financial motives written all over it. These guys are the masters in covert and dodgy dealings, the current situation with the CVD19 Virus is a perfect smoke screen for interference with US policy’s and politics , Trump is there for the knocking off of his Perch, almost looks like the Virus also May have been planned by some band of footpads with masks 😷 on....

As there is no serious competition, I doubt that Trump will be ‘knocked off of his perch’.

If it does come to light that there was a nefarious plan to either damage Trump or the US, then things het very interesting as he becomes a ‘lame duck’ President who does not have to worry about re-election...and the gloves come off.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Ruffneck, that ain't how geo-politics works. US needs markets for it's oil and gas and Ven and Iran are not the only ones who will get pushed aside. I reckon Iraq will be next.

But the US doesn’t need anywhere near the market for their oil and gas that Saudi and Russia do.

[James Regan + 1,776]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

I disagree. I think it was Putin who cut his nose off to spite his face. SA has lowest lifting costs on planet, so can make good profits even if the price goes to $15. Not the case for Russia or USA. Of course SA will win this battle, and it won't take them long. 6 months at the most.

That will be long enough for Putin to have what he wanted a US Shale play fully exposed and floundering.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Interesting article here

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/oil-prices/

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

That will be long enough for Putin to have what he wanted a US Shale play fully exposed and floundering.

It’s been floundering for years...

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, El Nikko said:

Interesting article here

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/oil-prices/

@El Nikko Great piece certainly explains all possibilities and reasoning, however they also don’t know the long term damage that has been cause by two face saving countries, best solutions All 3 get around the table but the US can’t really, but maybe the market will do it for them by coming to a balance which is digestible for all...,

[James Regan + 1,776]

17 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

It’s been floundering for years...

Maybe this will clean out the deadwood and make it less Gung-Ho running round punching holes with other people money. They should be jailed for crimes against the oil patch 

Two years ago this would have wiped out the shale minnows, luckily they made a complete mess in the sand box and the adults had to take over.

Edited March 10, 2020 by James Regan

[El Nikko + 2,145]

2 minutes ago, James Regan said:

@El Nikko Great piece certainly explains all possibilities and reasoning, however they also don’t know the long term damage that has been cause by two face saving countries, best solutions All 3 get around the table but the US can’t really, but maybe the market will do it for them by coming to a balance which is digestible for all...,

As we speak US drillers are slamming the brakes on hard.

Marathon, Ring Energy, Diamondback (and one or two others) have all released statements announcing an immediate reduction in activity.

The Rig count is going to come tumbling down really fast by the looks of it, we've just got to see how long it takes for production to start falling.

Again it's purely anecdotal but by the time all of our work had dried up at the end of 2015 production had already start falling.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

8 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Maybe this will clean out the deadwood and make it less Gung-Ho running round punching holes with other people money. They should be jailed for crimes against the oil patch 

I don't think we're going to see that mentality ever again

Edited March 10, 2020 by El Nikko

[El Nikko + 2,145]

and another one Oxy "The company also announced it will reduce 2020 capital spending to between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion and will implement additional operating and corporate cost reductions. "

http://www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com/IndustryResearch/News.aspx?a=news&ticker=a&w=&story=202003bwire10005753r1.xml

From Dave-Ramsden-Woods "Also, rumor from the field in Texas is that Diamondback has gone to 0 frac crews."

 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

1 hour ago, El Nikko said:

and another one Oxy "The company also announced it will reduce 2020 capital spending to between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion and will implement additional operating and corporate cost reductions. "

http://www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com/IndustryResearch/News.aspx?a=news&ticker=a&w=&story=202003bwire10005753r1.xml

From Dave-Ramsden-Woods "Also, rumor from the field in Texas is that Diamondback has gone to 0 frac crews."

 

it was either Diamondback or Apache, I heard that yesterday...crew I was with an oxy frac is suposed to be rigging up on a 4 well pad and start tomorrow, hope I have a job location, will find out tomorrow I guess

[cbrasher1 + 272]

https://www.cbs7.com/content/news/Coronavirus-forcing-Diamondback-Energy-to-scale-back-operations-568629161.html

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 hours ago, cbrasher1 said:

it was either Diamondback or Apache, I heard that yesterday...crew I was with an oxy frac is suposed to be rigging up on a 4 well pad and start tomorrow, hope I have a job location, will find out tomorrow I guess

I think there's going to be more in the next few days

[0R0 + 6,251]

In 2016 we finally dropped to 400 rigs from the peak of 2000 rigs in 2014. At ~800 today there is much to fall looking forward. a  1 Mob/d drop in production is in the near future, and barring a resumption in the OPEC+ deal, the production decline will continue as prices continue to remain suppressed, till Saudi is at full production and Iran is out of the market. Russian oil will continue to be produced and stored on tankers floating around the N. Sea and NE Asia. Key beneficiaries US millennials going for trucks and exurban living. China consumers and industry, and agriculture (remember that China uses 4X the agrichem applications than the US does per ton of crop). EU consumers will also see a minor benefit but not much as their main energy cost is taxes. China  had paved over their most productive ag land in the Yangtse, Yellow river and Pearl river deltas with new construction. Making these once food self sufficient provinces into net food importers from inland and abroad. Meaning that China is now more dependent on oil not only for transport, but for maintaining food production and its increased transport distances. 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by 0R0

[El Nikko + 2,145]

6 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

In 2016 we finally dropped to 400 rigs from the peak of 2000 rigs in 2014. At ~800 today there is much to fall looking forward. a  1 Mob/d drop in production is in the near future, and barring a resumption in the OPEC+ deal, the production decline will continue as prices continue to remain suppressed, till Saudi is at full production and Iran is out of the market. Russian oil will continue to be produced and stored on tankers floating around the N. Sea and NE Asia. Key beneficiaries US millennials going for trucks and exurban living. China consumers and industry, and agriculture (remember that China uses 4X the agrichem applications than the US does per ton of crop). EU consumers will also see a minor benefit but not much as their main energy cost is taxes. They had paved over their most productive ag land in the Yangtse, Yellow river and Pearl river deltas with new construction. Making these once food self sufficient provinces into net food importers from inland and abroad. Meaning that China is now more dependent on oil not only for transport, but for maintaining food production and its increased transport distances. 

 

My feeling is a lot more US oil producers are going to make cuts to drilling and completion activities, it's all very well for some people to talk about how the big guys will eat the small but the big companies are responsible for most of the drilling and production. If they wont cut everyone's screwed but my feeling is they will, they've been given a warning and if everyone acts now we can get this thing fixed in a short amount of time. Rig count is going to drop but maybe quick action (in comparison to the 2014-2016 sh*tshow) that's what's needed?

Unless the Saudi actions have been some how santioned by Trump I still wouldn't fancy being in their shoes right now. Hurting Russia and especially Iran (which is going to be suffering so much) is going to flare up the situation in Yemen and if it has p*ssed off Trump then they might be on their own. This is not a good look for Trump's economic miracle right now especially in an election year.

I think it's worth paying attention to the war in Yemen, it barely gets reported on but Saudi has been bogged down there for years now and is losing baddly.

I also still find the MSM blaiming Russia for the drop in prices rather than Saudi to be very strange indeed, Saudi tried to strong arm Russia which is probably not the best idea ever.

Will we hit or even need to hit 400 rigs this time? Maybe not if cooler heads can prevail.

 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

4 hours ago, cbrasher1 said:

it was either Diamondback or Apache, I heard that yesterday...crew I was with an oxy frac is suposed to be rigging up on a 4 well pad and start tomorrow, hope I have a job location, will find out tomorrow I guess

How many DUC wells left to be completed? If still above 7000 then drilling might come to a halt. They might concentrate on finishing wells to keep production up. Hope ya still have a job in a month!! I can't really see an all out KSA 10mbd+ to screw with Russia. Makes no sense as the bottom will fall out. US frac'n crews going to be the ones hurt. And right now supply is well over demand so....kinda hard to figure what their thinking is.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

kinda hard to figure what their thinking is.

They're thinking with their dicks. Anyone with a rational brain could figure out that shale production isn't really going to change much. Plenty of guys like Scott Sheffield and his son are going to pull in their spurs. But a lot of guys can't--so they'll go broke. Their acreage will be picked up by Chevron or Exxon, if it's any good. 

When the smoke clears--in a couple of years if the Saudis live up to their long angry spells--it'll be Chevron and Exxon calling the shots. By then, the Stabroek Block will be producing from all 18 major hits and they can just churn along with the Delaware. I'm less sure about Chevron, but they have so much cash that they can bide their time too. 

So Saudi Arabia will have lost another $500 billion, Russia about the same amount, and the Permian is producing about . . . . 10 million barrels a day. We'll all be staring at 2022, with the renewables people trying to kill us and the Saudis' production will have sputtered out--they've been running zillions of gallons of seawater down those wells. 

This is like a Greek tragedy. You know the ending from the very first act but you are mesmerized by these crazy bastards having to live the DNA they were born with. By 2022, unless I'm wrong, oil is going to be getting tight and gas is up to maybe $3. The House of Saud is in ruins and Russia has lived through yet another devastation. This is going to hurt countless small operators, but in reality, the US shale industry is going to come out of this pretty much the way they emerged from the 2014 Thanksgiving Massacre: leaner, smarter, able to produce more with less. What a shame MbS can't see the future--it's like a turd about to come through the windshield of his Mercedes.  

[garycoates + 1]

On 3/5/2020 at 8:17 AM, James Regan said:

$30Bbl looming for WTI, quite rightly so Russia pressuring for a US cut in production. Why should OPEC and others take the load while the USA continues with reckless abandon.

Great time for Russian projects to put a well needed roadblock for LTI Over Production.

The US market is a free market economy the government doesn't own the reserves ... there are very few countries here mineral reserves are not state owned. its not a federal decision to make the laws of economics govern.

[Boat + 1,324]

On 3/5/2020 at 8:17 AM, James Regan said:

$30Bbl looming for WTI, quite rightly so Russia pressuring for a US cut in production. Why should OPEC and others take the load while the USA continues with reckless abandon.

Great time for Russian projects to put a well needed roadblock for LTI Over Production.

Seems to me the US has millions and millions of oil per day exports to go before they equal other world leaders. Get over it.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 minutes ago, Boat said:

Seems to me the US has millions and millions of oil per day exports to go before they equal other world leaders. Get over it.

Are you really saying that volumes of exports somehow equates to world leaders?

That simply doesn’t make sense and is a fairly moronic observation. 

[Boat + 1,324]

12 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Are you really saying that volumes of exports somehow equates to world leaders?

That simply doesn’t make sense and is a fairly moronic observation. 

Ask Iran, Venezuela and Lybia about how politics affected their volumes, moron. Read much?

Ask China, Japan, Europe, Russia, Saudi etc to at what lengths they have taken to buy or sell oil. Remember Dick Cheney’s wars? The old saying of not the sharpest knife in the drawer comes to mind.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Boat

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

46 minutes ago, Boat said:

 

Seems to me the US has millions and millions of oil per day exports to go before they equal other worldleaders. Get over it.

 

Above is what you wrote. Assuming you are fluent in English, from your other rants, you must be able to see that you are somehow equating “...millions and millions of oil per day exports...” to “equal other worldleaders.”

 

The way this is written, you are comparing volumes to people.

 

But hey, what do I know, you are the data, science, and technology expert. Perhaps it is simply your writing skills which suck.

 

[Andrew N. + 3]

18 марта 2020 г. , Вена

РОССИЯ + JTC (Совместный технический комитет)

Российские представители примут участие в мартовском заседании технического комитета ОПЕК +, сообщил журналистам министр энергетики России Александр Новак.

- «Да, наши представители будут [на официальном заседании JTC]. Еще раз повторяю: в рамках Хартии [сотрудничество нефтедобывающих стран] сохраняется формат отношений, мы продолжаем следить за ситуацией с коллегами»(Новак).

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7944743

Edited March 11, 2020 by Andrew N.