OPEC EXPECTED TO CUT - WHERES THE CUT FROM UNCLE SAM

[J.mo + 165]

I've also felt for some time mbs is paranoid. One cannot make healthy decisions from a state of paranoia and protectionism. 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

James, this guy MbS is not operating on a full tank. Remember, this is the guy who allegedly had Khashoggi whacked and the world let him get by with it. 

He thinks he can do anything. This stuff is his toy-world. 

Me? I doubt that he can survive this. I mean, what kind of idiot blows up his own country to make a point?

OPEC is now in shreds. Iran is going to have to run their own deals, Iraq too, and Nigeria, for Pete's sake. And these are the most sophisticated. Well, there's the Emirates, but they've always kept their own peace. 

Putin can hold on. MbS? I don't think so. Aramco was a house of cards and the people who bought into it were coerced, for the most part. But they also held out a sliver of hope that things would revert to business as usual. Well, things didn't work out that way. 

Mr. Trump has already heard an earful from Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Kinder and the like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him do something really radical. Time is running out. The markets are crashing. A pandemic is upon us. The Federal Reserve has shot its wad. Now what does the Federal Reserve do--start buying equities? And what if we became a bigger buyer of Russian oil? MbS has really shot off the end of his talleywhacker and I don't believe anyone will care.

Is that a proven statement or an assumption? What could he possibly do to steer this ship back on path before we go over the waterfall and drown?

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

8 hours ago, cbrasher1 said:

I do hope the service companies who are going to bid on KSA shale gas venture remember these times, they are not our friends, they want US shale to die, and bid accordingly, i.e. price gouge the fak out of them!

This is true, the KSA really don't care too much for USA. Remember when they decided to join forces in middle east? SA was the ring leader and has been the leader of OPEC since. Now they've lost control, and a bidding war with Russia everyone loses. No stable price structure for the foreseeable future will hurt Shale the most as its the most expensive to complete. Russia can absorb the loss the most. SA already in dire straights with 55$ oil. They need 80+ to sustain their country.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

9 hours ago, James Regan said:

Be interesting to see Aramco price and how it holds out, would they really sell at 6/7$ per Bbl?

They could for a short period, they do have many Billions in the bank. Being a nation with one resource of cash flow tho, I would think they better learn to get along with others. Too many at odds with MBS and his policies and want out of OPEC or at least modify amounts each can sell. Always seems to favor SA. In few days I am guessing someone will say Uncle.

[James Regan + 1,776]

Something drastic happened between KSA and Russia, Russia made no qualms that there refusal to cut was to disrupt and potentially harm the US Shale Industry.

So what happened in between, why would the KSA cut their noses off, are they in a play to stretch the Shale industry?

I think this is a penis measuring competition to see how long before someone balks , Trump is keeping very quiet, I believe they are the proxy in this being the target.

Let see circuit breakers about to take over stock market.

[James Regan + 1,776]

First S&P Circuit Breaker kicked in at -7% shut in for 15 mins, next one at 13% -It’s interesting when lots of US traders or pundits on this forum talk about a free market etc, how free? Free enough for the institutions to stop trading at 7% and 13% what’s free trade about that?

Edited March 9, 2020 by James Regan

[Rob Plant + 2,626]

On 3/7/2020 at 2:14 PM, James Regan said:

You know I am not Anti American in fact I’m probably more anti England than anything....

You Scots still bearing a grudge after Culloden! it was 274 years ago James 😂

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

8 hours ago, cbrasher1 said:

Is that a proven statement or an assumption? What could he possibly do to steer this ship back on path before we go over the waterfall and drown?

To #1, I think pretty much the whole world believes MbS was behind the Khashoggi whack . . . that's out there, when you come to think about it, dismembering a man. To #2, MbS can do now what he's eventually going to have to do to keep his whole sovereignty from going bankrupt: make up a story and say uncle.

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

You Scots still bearing a grudge after Culloden! it was 274 years ago James 😂

FEB - Your right it’s like when I watched BraveHeart at the cinema there were riots outside. The Scots are a wee bit bitter of how they were treated but they want it both ways, the Scots would not survive alone -Fact

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

To #1, I think pretty much the whole world believes MbS was behind the Khashoggi whack . . . that's out there, when you come to think about it, dismembering a man. To #2, MbS can do now what he's eventually going to have to do to keep his whole sovereignty from going bankrupt: make up a story and say uncle.

The Khashoggi story is a complicated one, his uncle was the worlds biggest private arms dealer, you don’t get there without some kind of story, normally not good. All is not what it seems....

[James Regan + 1,776]

My prediction is that the US will capitulate and cut production, 9000 companies with bad fiscal policies need to be controlled. Watch this space US rig count will fall off monthly.

Edited March 9, 2020 by James Regan

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

5 minutes ago, James Regan said:

My prediction is that the US will capitulate and cut production, 9000 companies with bad fiscal policies need to be controlled. Watch this space US rig count will fall off monthly.

Collusion is a form of price-setting, so that's out. 

The rig count will fall.

But the president basically has to do something to reassure the markets--this little duel has threatened an already teetering market. Oil may not be much in today's valuation of companies, but if there is too much of it and the stated purpose is to pump and dump, then there is truly no bottom. 

I look for the president to do something drastic. He does not want to go down in flames and this sure looks like a crisis. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

4 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Collusion is a form of price-setting, so that's out. 

The rig count will fall.

But the president basically has to do something to reassure the markets--this little duel has threatened an already teetering market. Oil may not be much in today's valuation of companies, but if there is too much of it and the stated purpose is to pump and dump, then there is truly no bottom. 

I look for the president to do something drastic. He does not want to go down in flames and this sure looks like a crisis. 

I am curious how many VLCC's are out there full with no-one to purchase? At 32 a barrel I'd let Trump refill the SPR and get the prices back up. Would that just slow the inevitable crash?, am curios as sooner China will be needing their oil back. Their shut down of the whole country really killed 3 to 4mbd usage. Doesn't take long since they haven't finished  their own SPR. The US could take 60mb and still have room for more. 

[aesma + 1]

On 3/6/2020 at 4:00 PM, El Nikko said:

Yes most likely. I see it as a part of a geopolitical game, I suppose oil has always been used like this but ever since the Syrian war started it really seems like it's been used as a weapon particularly by the Saudis and Russians.

And what is Trump doing exactly with the sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, if not playing with oil ?

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

40 minutes ago, aesma said:

And what is Trump doing exactly with the sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, if not playing with oil ?

Sanctions against Ven and Iran are political moves to get each country respectfully to join the human race. Iran doesn't need a nuclear bomb, and Venezuela needs oust Maduro. Trying to do this diplomatically without outright dropping troops and bombs on said countries.

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Collusion is a form of price-setting, so that's out. 

The rig count will fall.

But the president basically has to do something to reassure the markets--this little duel has threatened an already teetering market. Oil may not be much in today's valuation of companies, but if there is too much of it and the stated purpose is to pump and dump, then there is truly no bottom. 

I look for the president to do something drastic. He does not want to go down in flames and this sure looks like a crisis. 

Let’s take this scenario both the KSA and Russia want US Shale curtailed What could possibly drive both to make drastic behavior where no one obviously gains. However if you turn this political and the fact that the Democrats are not fans of the US Shale industry then no better solution than to inflict damage to POTUS with his beloved stock market. Both KSA and Russia don’t care if it’s dem or rep but they do care about cash. A common denominator here is US policy on Shale and production and the Dems look more favorable to both KSA and Russia.

More meddling in US elections is this a conspiracy theory or coincidence in the year of election?  KSA and Russia carry out unprecedented moves, today was the first time in history the circuit breakers were used, something bigger is brewing and IMO we will see this 30+Bbl for the next few months, I don’t believe Putin fell out with MBS , these people don’t act this way this was well planned.

Food for thought....

Edited March 9, 2020 by James Regan

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 hours ago, James Regan said:

Something drastic happened between KSA and Russia, Russia made no qualms that there refusal to cut was to disrupt and potentially harm the US Shale Industry.

So what happened in between, why would the KSA cut their noses off, are they in a play to stretch the Shale industry?

I'm sure something else is going in behind the scenes and it could be geopolitical rather than economic but if it's the former it's damn near impossible to find out unless you could be a fly on the wall.

What is true is that Saudi and other gulf states are still funding 'rebels' in various proxy wars, Libya and Syria being the most obvious but no doubt they're meddling in other countries as well.

On the flip side you have Russia who supports Assad and sells arms to the Iranians and some of those weapons no doubt end up in Yemen which is a very painful issue for the Saudis.

It's not that long ago the Russians were talking about building nuclear power stations in Saudi and offering them a chance to buy weapons etc. So it does look like their relationship is crumbling at the moment.

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, El Nikko said:

I'm sure something else is going in behind the scenes and it could be geopolitical rather than economic but if it's the former it's damn near impossible to find out unless you could be a fly on the wall.

What is true is that Saudi and other gulf states are still funding 'rebels' in various proxy wars, Libya and Syria being the most obvious but no doubt they're meddling in other countries as well.

On the flip side you have Russia who supports Assad and sells arms to the Iranians and some of those weapons no doubt end up in Yemen which is a very painful issue for the Saudis.

It's not that long ago the Russians were talking about building nuclear power stations in Saudi and offering them a chance to buy weapons etc. So it does look like their relationship is crumbling at the moment.

I can not argue with the above so it makes it even harder to reason why this sudden spat, I am no conspiracy theorist but this has political and financial motives written all over it. These guys are the masters in covert and dodgy dealings, the current situation with the CVD19 Virus is a perfect smoke screen for interference with US policy’s and politics , Trump is there for the knocking off of his Perch, almost looks like the Virus also May have been planned by some band of footpads with masks 😷 on....

Edited March 9, 2020 by James Regan

[Tomasz + 1,608]

In Russia, there  is very well known proverb. I may not quite properly translate it.

Until the lightning strikes, the Russian peasant  will not make ign of cross.

It means that in a comfortable situation, the Russians are a lazy people not willing to change, but if their circumstances force them to work hard they can overtake Napoleon from Moscow, Hitler from Moscow and, for example, in 4 years they will build the nuclear weapon which the Americans expected about the 70s and it was great shock  for them that the USSR rebuilt so rapidly from great war damage.

Now such shock for lazy Russians were the sanctions and low oil price

 

Let me add, because for many people, e.g. Americans, it may be incomprehensible in such a situation, the Russians need a very strong power to whip over themselves.

This is incomprehensible because, as you know, Americans are a civil society and Russians are not .

It does not mean that they cannot gather and chase away the enemy from the village, but it is good that strong leader Batiushka-tsar setting general direction.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Tomasz

[El Nikko + 2,145]

51 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I can not argue with the above so it makes it even harder to reason why this sudden spat, I am no conspiracy theorist but this has political and financial motives written all over it. These guys are the masters in covert and dodgy dealings, the current situation with the CVD19 Virus is a perfect smoke screen for interference with US policy’s and politics , Trump is there for the knocking off of his Perch, almost looks like the Virus also May have been planned by some band of footpads with masks 😷 on....

Ha ha I've been called that many times for simply pointing out things that don't seem to allign with what our own media is saying.

I think there is a far chance Putin is annoyed with Saudi because some of the 'rebels' in Idbib have not respected the recent ceasefire brokered between Putin and Erdogan and I am very sure they're funded by Saudi. In case anyone doubts this (I know it's not really main stream view) you can even find wikileaks documents from Hilary Clinton which compains about the same problem...it was very interesting stuff to read at the time and gave us a peak into behind the scenes stuff that goes on. I think Putin wants this war to end and mostly so does Erdogan..in fact no doubt the US are quite happy with what they've created from it (Kurdish autonomous zones) but the Saudis aren't ready for that...maybe they want some assurances for their southern border with Yemen or something else.

On the virus the media seem to have done everything in their power to wreck Trump's presidency so why the heck not, even Trump's twitter is saying the hysteria is 'fake news'.

Just out of curiousity I wonder how many new virus's crop up each year that we never even hear of, I also wonder if some of them kill far more than this one has done so far which does beg the question about what is so special about coronavirus.

Next up I can show you something I noticed the other day...MSM pumping out stories on this interview and keeping them prominent for several days (always makes me raise an eyebrow) and even zerohedge which is normal a skeptical ( and doom and gloom and slightly conspiratorial) publication. This guy was touted as some kind of world expert on epidemics. Most people aren't going to listen to the full boring interview but I did. It turns out the organisation he is CEO of is some kind of investment company but part charity, no one has ever heard of it. At the end of the video after proclaiming this is the most frightening virus he's ever ecountered (HIV???) and comparable to WW2 (not joking) he then starts asking for money (LOL!). So who is this guy? Well it turns out he held several high ranking jobs under...drum role...Obama and after being turfed out of his job works for this organisation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/most-frightening-disease-ive-ever-encountered-my-career-says-architect-national-pandemic

Don't you just love an election year?

[James Regan + 1,776]

15 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Ha ha I've been called that many times for simply pointing out things that don't seem to allign with what our own media is saying.

I think there is a far chance Putin is annoyed with Saudi because some of the 'rebels' in Idbib have not respected the recent ceasefire brokered between Putin and Erdogan and I am very sure they're funded by Saudi. In case anyone doubts this (I know it's not really main stream view) you can even find wikileaks documents from Hilary Clinton which compains about the same problem...it was very interesting stuff to read at the time and gave us a peak into behind the scenes stuff that goes on. I think Putin wants this war to end and mostly so does Erdogan..in fact no doubt the US are quite happy with what they've created from it (Kurdish autonomous zones) but the Saudis aren't ready for that...maybe they want some assurances for their southern border with Yemen or something else.

On the virus the media seem to have done everything in their power to wreck Trump's presidency so why the heck not, even Trump's twitter is saying the hysteria is 'fake news'.

Just out of curiousity I wonder how many new virus's crop up each year that we never even hear of, I also wonder if some of them kill far more than this one has done so far which does beg the question about what is so special about coronavirus.

Next up I can show you something I noticed the other day...MSM pumping out stories on this interview and keeping them prominent for several days (always makes me raise an eyebrow) and even zerohedge which is normal a skeptical ( and doom and gloom and slightly conspiratorial) publication. This guy was touted as some kind of world expert on epidemics. Most people aren't going to listen to the full boring interview but I did. It turns out the organisation he is CEO of is some kind of investment company but part charity, no one has ever heard of it. At the end of the video after proclaiming this is the most frightening virus he's ever ecountered (HIV???) and comparable to WW2 (not joking) he then starts asking for money (LOL!). So who is this guy? Well it turns out he held several high ranking jobs under...drum role...Obama and after being turfed out of his job works for this organisation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/most-frightening-disease-ive-ever-encountered-my-career-says-architect-national-pandemic

Don't you just love an election year?

Nothing surprises me, after three years of witch-hunts to get rid of Trump this virus and spat with Market turmoil is too perfect to be coincidence, if this is the final shot it’s a damn good one and I feel may just penetrate the body armor , best thing Trump can do is STFU stay of Twitter and let it run its course. 

[Sig Sackewitz + 1]

On 3/5/2020 at 6:39 AM, Old-Ruffneck said:

30$bbl on WTI? Hovering around 45$ right now, I doubt 30$'s range is in near future. Might hit 40 before a rebound in next 2 weeks but then is the time to buy, by September it should be back in upper 50's to lower 60's$ range.

As of a 7% drop in all major indexes and a near record drop, as we type 3/9 PM WTI is $31/bbl. This hurts oil profits but with

oil the most important value on the international commodity markets,.forecasts lower costs in almost every other sector of the economy.

Not a bad thing. 

[Sig Sackewitz + 1]

Never mind the trump conspiracy cult is at it again.

[James Regan + 1,776]

32 minutes ago, Sig Sackewitz said:

As of a 7% drop in all major indexes and a near record drop, as we type 3/9 PM WTI is $31/bbl. This hurts oil profits but with

oil the most important value on the international commodity markets,.forecasts lower costs in almost every other sector of the economy.

Not a bad thing. 

Sorry can you explain this I’m not following your wording, 

respectfully 

[Wombat + 1,028]

17 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

This is true, the KSA really don't care too much for USA. Remember when they decided to join forces in middle east? SA was the ring leader and has been the leader of OPEC since. Now they've lost control, and a bidding war with Russia everyone loses. No stable price structure for the foreseeable future will hurt Shale the most as its the most expensive to complete. Russia can absorb the loss the most. SA already in dire straights with 55$ oil. They need 80+ to sustain their country.

I disagree. I think it was Putin who cut his nose off to spite his face. SA has lowest lifting costs on planet, so can make good profits even if the price goes to $15. Not the case for Russia or USA. Of course SA will win this battle, and it won't take them long. 6 months at the most.