OPEC EXPECTED TO CUT - WHERES THE CUT FROM UNCLE SAM

[Humailahmed 0]

Pumping goes up or pumping goes down , we are heading towards Teens $18 or $19.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,241]

On 3/21/2020 at 5:19 AM, 0R0 said:

Of course they don't invest more than they need to in order to cover their contracts as about half of production was sold forward. They will wait till prices head back and inventories look more lean so promising of better prices going forward. 

That is how the free market works. This is temporary problem and the Saudi government won't let the Prince run too long and great quantities over what the world is consuming. Guessing 3 months flat out pumping will only make them less trust worthy oil exporter and other will take up the slack. This Prince will bankrupt KSA instead of negotiating in good faith with all the worlds producers. Russia can keep pumping 10+mbd as it's not their sole income. The consumer is the winner in this "oil war". I still believe his elder statesmen will set his thinking correctly while trying to save face. Will be interesting next few weeks.

[James Regan + 1,776]

16 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

That is how the free market works. This is temporary problem and the Saudi government won't let the Prince run too long and great quantities over what the world is consuming. Guessing 3 months flat out pumping will only make them less trust worthy oil exporter and other will take up the slack. This Prince will bankrupt KSA instead of negotiating in good faith with all the worlds producers. Russia can keep pumping 10+mbd as it's not their sole income. The consumer is the winner in this "oil war". I still believe his elder statesmen will set his thinking correctly while trying to save face. Will be interesting next few weeks.

Watch the opening tonight and we will know our future, April first we will more than likely be in the high teens, after that put on the TIW. Permanent Kick Drill, no flow check required, close UPRs.

Edited March 22, 2020 by James Regan

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

That is how the free market works. This is temporary problem and the Saudi government won't let the Prince run too long and great quantities over what the world is consuming. Guessing 3 months flat out pumping will only make them less trust worthy oil exporter and other will take up the slack. This Prince will bankrupt KSA instead of negotiating in good faith with all the worlds producers. Russia can keep pumping 10+mbd as it's not their sole income. The consumer is the winner in this "oil war". I still believe his elder statesmen will set his thinking correctly while trying to save face. Will be interesting next few weeks.

Contrary to others on the forum, I don't think MBS is being a child. I am thinking that he has a very particular strategy in mind to broaden OPEC with Russia and preferably with the US. He is using an aggressive delivery and undercutting strategy to make sure Russian revenues are hit heavily beyond just the price drop. He wants their volumes down sufficiently so that they run out of tankers and buyers run out of storage so that it is Russian tankers floating around the oceans making no revenue and costing high leasing rates (they would be over their contract). Russia's CB may expect to do fine with the Ruble adjusting, but it isn't really adjusting the same way it had before. The rub to having "diversified" is that the Ruble also adjusts less.Same for having a positive net reserve position. The other side of the weak Ruble today, is that the food export relationships formed in the interim since 2014 also mean that food rushes out of Russia at smaller drops of the Ruble, thus forcing food prices up, and availability down. The CBR has already intervened in the Ruble exchange market, though that was not in the playbook they published. Probably due to the side effects of the weak Ruble on living standards in Russia.

So I expect that Russia will shut down a major field when the pile up of their floating oil makes it impossible to push any more out of the ports. As that approaches, they will cut a deal with OPEC. 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by 0R0

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,241]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

He wants their volumes down sufficiently so that they run out of tankers and buyers run out of storage so that it is Russian tankers floating around the oceans making no revenue and costing high leasing rates (they would be over their contract).

As long as there is demand, countries will be buying up the cheap crude as long as they are solvent and have storage capacity. It really isn't hard to make more capacity, just doze I berm 20' tall by 1000' squared. Poly line it and you now have storage. Drive out in West Texas and you see 'em all over the place, holding water. But mud pits are the same principle. I would see the US buy every VLCC available and refill all the old stripper wells. Bet we can take on a billion + barrels on the cheap.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

As long as there is demand, countries will be buying up the cheap crude as long as they are solvent and have storage capacity. It really isn't hard to make more capacity, just doze I berm 20' tall by 1000' squared. Poly line it and you now have storage. Drive out in West Texas and you see 'em all over the place, holding water. But mud pits are the same principle. I would see the US buy every VLCC available and refill all the old stripper wells. Bet we can take on a billion + barrels on the cheap.

Hardly anyone does open storage - you need a floating cover. It is not that easy for oil storage anymore. 

Filling up wells is an idea, but it takes lots of work to deliver there on pipelines as the old ones in the spent oil fields are not maintained well. But if you are large enough you might be able to do it rapidly to catch the low prices and partially sell forward to capture some contango. . 

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

On 18.03.2020 at 15:03, Douglas Buckland said:

Хорошо, я бы согласился с вами, если бы Саудовская Аравия и Россия также работали на рыночной экономике. Когда национальные нефтяные компании субсидируются и управляются национальными правительствами, они больше не работают на рыночной экономике. Как вы учитываете это в вашем конкурсе? 

Let me answer:
1. "The United States Above All" violates all the rules and regulations of the International Market Economy, - upon the fact of the US World Economy, - the States have violated International Law (UN and WHO) by setting the absolute priority of their National Law and acting on the primal Let me answer:
1. "The USA Above All" violates all the norms and rules of the International Market Economy, - upon the fact of the US World Economy, - the States have violated International Law (UN and WHO), setting the absolute priority of their National Law and acting on the principle of Karl von Clausewitz "There is war continued policy by other means."
And in order to achieve their political, financial and economic goals and objectives, the United States uses cynical unprincipled aggressive bandit methods: military intervention and incitement to conflicts, terrorist attacks, coups, murders, false accusations, arrests, torture, bribery ... and so on. economic sanctions (at its discretion, without the knowledge of the UN).
2. In Russia there is only one oil company, Rosneft Oil Company (195.11 million tons), the majority of which is owned by the state.
And the rest, LUKOIL - 82.12 million tons, Surgutneftegas - 60.76 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 39.15 million tons, Tatneft - 29.8 million tons, Bashneft - 18, 67 million tons, Slavneft - 13.97 million tons, NOVATEK - 8.41 million tons, RussNeft - 7.12 million tons ... no!
3. You can raise the price of oil easily, simply, especially train - close two refineries at KSA for repairs (missile strike of "terrorists", "Hussites" or "Hez-Ballah" and "KSIR")
4. You should also rely on the fact that almost 80% of US GDP is in the service sector,
It seems that the Great Economy of consumption, sensations and impressions, which has plundered the "colonies", pitted countries into war, bombed Papuans and killings, terrorist coups and mercenary proxy wars, intimidation, bribery, arrests, torture ... quasisanctions, printing petrodollars, stocks, futures inevitably comes Fucked - The Great Depressant! Or maybe even the Orange Revolution awaits you. Or green.

PS You cannot start a hot war - you will lose any conflict Karl von Clausewitz's principle "War is the continuation of politics by other means."
And in order to achieve their political, financial and economic goals and objectives, the United States uses cynical unprincipled aggressive bandit methods: military intervention and incitement to conflicts, terrorist attacks, coups, murders, false accusations, arrests, torture, bribery ... and so on. economic sanctions (at its discretion, without the knowledge of the UN).
2. In Russia there is only one oil company, Rosneft Oil Company (195.11 million tons), the majority of which is owned by the state.
And the rest, LUKOIL - 82.12 million tons, Surgutneftegas - 60.76 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 39.15 million tons, Tatneft - 29.8 million tons, Bashneft - 18, 67 million tons, Slavneft - 13.97 million tons, NOVATEK - 8.41 million tons, RussNeft - 7.12 million tons ... no!
3. You can raise the price of oil easily, simply, especially train - close two refineries at KSA for repairs (missile strike of "terrorists", "Hussites" or "Hez-Ballah" and "KSIR")
4. You must also complain on the fact that almost 80% of US GDP is in the service sector,

It seems that the Great Economy of consumption, sensations and impressions, which has plundered the "colonies", pitted countries into war, bombed Papuans and killings, terrorist coups and mercenary proxy wars, intimidation, bribery, arrests, torture ... quasisanctions, printing petrodollars , stocks, futures inevitably comes Fucked - The Great Depressant! Or maybe even the Orange Revolution awaits you... or Green. ))) 

But all this will start from 2025, probably end by 2040. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

How likely is this then?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-Ultimate-Weapon-To-End-The-Oil-War.html

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

7 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Так работает свободный рынок. Это временная проблема, и правительство Саудовской Аравии не допустит, чтобы принц слишком долго и много работал над тем, что потребляет мир. Предположение о том, что перекачка нефти через 3 месяца приведет к тому, что экспортеры нефти станут менее доверчивыми, а другие - ослабят свои позиции. Этот принц обанкротит КСА вместо того, чтобы добросовестно вести переговоры со всеми мировыми производителями. Россия может продолжать прокачивать 10+ мбд, так как это не единственный их доход. Потребитель является победителем в этой «нефтяной войне». Я все еще верю, что его старшие государственные деятели правильно настроят его, пытаясь сохранить лицо. Будет интересно через несколько недель.

Firstly, why aren’t you considering a collusion between RF and KSA? RF, KSA and USA? )))
And secondly, again I repeat, raising the price of oil (USA) is easy - either by sending a couple of KSA refineries for repair, or by clogging the “bottle neck” somewhere. )))

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

9 минут назад Эль Никко сказал:

Насколько вероятно это тогда?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-Ultimate-Weapon-To-End-The-Oil-War.html

 

The obvious is unbelievable "))) This is a Big policy, while everyone solves his tasks, as soon as the participants in the game begin to achieve their goals, then we will see ... let's say Donald Trump concludes another Good deal between the Russian Federation and KSA))) Probably June quarter we will see ...

Edited March 23, 2020 by Andrew Neopalimy

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^ 

Great idea to fill up old wells, now that I get the concept better. There are thousands of old wells (probably 20-30,000) in the old Hugoton Field and those wells--drilled from the twenties up to the eighties--are beautifully maintained and underlain by thousands of miles of pipelines. An additional benefit is--like a lot of old fields--that helium is abundant.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Apparently the US gov is bidding on oil for the strategic reserve to help smaller producers...but at these prices how is that any help?

Anyone like to weigh in on this?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

50 minutes ago, Andrew Neopalimy said:

Let me answer:
1. "The United States Above All" violates all the rules and regulations of the International Market Economy, - upon the fact of the US World Economy, - the States have violated International Law (UN and WHO) by setting the absolute priority of their National Law and acting on the primal Let me answer:
1. "The USA Above All" violates all the norms and rules of the International Market Economy, - upon the fact of the US World Economy, - the States have violated International Law (UN and WHO), setting the absolute priority of their National Law and acting on the principle of Karl von Clausewitz "There is war continued policy by other means."
And in order to achieve their political, financial and economic goals and objectives, the United States uses cynical unprincipled aggressive bandit methods: military intervention and incitement to conflicts, terrorist attacks, coups, murders, false accusations, arrests, torture, bribery ... and so on. economic sanctions (at its discretion, without the knowledge of the UN).
2. In Russia there is only one oil company, Rosneft Oil Company (195.11 million tons), the majority of which is owned by the state.
And the rest, LUKOIL - 82.12 million tons, Surgutneftegas - 60.76 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 39.15 million tons, Tatneft - 29.8 million tons, Bashneft - 18, 67 million tons, Slavneft - 13.97 million tons, NOVATEK - 8.41 million tons, RussNeft - 7.12 million tons ... no!
3. You can raise the price of oil easily, simply, especially train - close two refineries at KSA for repairs (missile strike of "terrorists", "Hussites" or "Hez-Ballah" and "KSIR")
4. You should also rely on the fact that almost 80% of US GDP is in the service sector,
It seems that the Great Economy of consumption, sensations and impressions, which has plundered the "colonies", pitted countries into war, bombed Papuans and killings, terrorist coups and mercenary proxy wars, intimidation, bribery, arrests, torture ... quasisanctions, printing petrodollars, stocks, futures inevitably comes Fucked - The Great Depressant! Or maybe even the Orange Revolution awaits you. Or green.

PS You cannot start a hot war - you will lose any conflict Karl von Clausewitz's principle "War is the continuation of politics by other means."
And in order to achieve their political, financial and economic goals and objectives, the United States uses cynical unprincipled aggressive bandit methods: military intervention and incitement to conflicts, terrorist attacks, coups, murders, false accusations, arrests, torture, bribery ... and so on. economic sanctions (at its discretion, without the knowledge of the UN).
2. In Russia there is only one oil company, Rosneft Oil Company (195.11 million tons), the majority of which is owned by the state.
And the rest, LUKOIL - 82.12 million tons, Surgutneftegas - 60.76 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 39.15 million tons, Tatneft - 29.8 million tons, Bashneft - 18, 67 million tons, Slavneft - 13.97 million tons, NOVATEK - 8.41 million tons, RussNeft - 7.12 million tons ... no!
3. You can raise the price of oil easily, simply, especially train - close two refineries at KSA for repairs (missile strike of "terrorists", "Hussites" or "Hez-Ballah" and "KSIR")
4. You must also complain on the fact that almost 80% of US GDP is in the service sector,

It seems that the Great Economy of consumption, sensations and impressions, which has plundered the "colonies", pitted countries into war, bombed Papuans and killings, terrorist coups and mercenary proxy wars, intimidation, bribery, arrests, torture ... quasisanctions, printing petrodollars , stocks, futures inevitably comes Fucked - The Great Depressant! Or maybe even the Orange Revolution awaits you... or Green. ))) 

But all this will start from 2025, probably end by 2040. 

First off, how can you ‘quote’ me in Cyrillic? I can not write in Cyrillic. This is libel.

Other than that....rant on!

[James Regan + 1,776]

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Contrary to others on the forum, I don't think MBS is being a child. I am thinking that he has a very particular strategy in mind to broaden OPEC with Russia and preferably with the US. He is using an aggressive delivery and undercutting strategy to make sure Russian revenues are hit heavily beyond just the price drop. He wants their volumes down sufficiently so that they run out of tankers and buyers run out of storage so that it is Russian tankers floating around the oceans making no revenue and costing high leasing rates (they would be over their contract). Russia's CB may expect to do fine with the Ruble adjusting, but it isn't really adjusting the same way it had before. The rub to having "diversified" is that the Ruble also adjusts less.Same for having a positive net reserve position. The other side of the weak Ruble today, is that the food export relationships formed in the interim since 2014 also mean that food rushes out of Russia at smaller drops of the Ruble, thus forcing food prices up, and availability down. The CBR has already intervened in the Ruble exchange market, though that was not in the playbook they published. Probably due to the side effects of the weak Ruble on living standards in Russia.

So I expect that Russia will shut down a major field when the pile up of their floating oil makes it impossible to push any more out of the ports. As that approaches, they will cut a deal with OPEC. 

 

Do we really believe that the OPEC+ was knee jerk reaction? MBS and Novak (Putin) didn't know what was on the agenda, so they both just rocked up and had a spat, its no secret that Putin has had his eye on the US unfavourable market share and his dream is to put the Shale Industry in its place, whatever that may be who knows. The CV19 has certainly thrown gasoline onto the situation but this was undoubtedly a planned attack on US LTO.

These are the fundamentals and we can imagine all kinds of possibilities but the reality is that it won't be ended with US shale continuing to crave world oil domination, want and having are completely different. IMO we will see a coming together due to the CV19 pandemic and radical changes will be made to try and set a sensible order and possible reset to market share which all will agree on. 

World domination be it a cartel or "free Market" attitudes won't end this.

Edited March 23, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

44 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

First off, how can you ‘quote’ me in Cyrillic? I can not write in Cyrillic. This is libel.

Other than that....rant on!

Thought you were a man of the world, your fluent in Chinese lol.....

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, El Nikko said:

How likely is this then?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-Ultimate-Weapon-To-End-The-Oil-War.html

That is about as upside down as you can get. The oil price war is about low prices and maximum production. The NOPEC act is about high prices and artificially suppressed production. The reality of it is that the US has a benefit from OPEC so long as prices don't exceed $70. 

There is another article by Simon Watkins about Putin's ultimate goal of running with Iran the oil fields from Iraq through Syria and sea ports in Hezbollah controlled Lebanon for Mediterranean ports, and the key to that is breaking the relationship of Saudi with the US, or alternatively breaking Saudi financially so that it can't fund the Sunni terrorist groups. But  there is a problem. The US remains there precisely to prevent Russia (and thus China) from controlling any oil in the middle east.

The demonstration of the US not caring about the Saudis was the non-retaliation against Iran when they bombed Abqaiq. Saudi is already clearly on its own. It has to pay for its own protection rather than get it because of its strategic value, nor for its oil. Yet US forces sit right there. They are there to ultimately take the oil if it is at risk of falling into Russian/Iranian/Chinese control. Turkey is a wild card there as it is starting to play a geopolitical role of its own separate from NATO, It is demonstrably not friendly with Syria and have dropped the relationship with Russia. Erdogan has "plans" to rebuild the Ottoman empire and get control of oil and gas resources of its former provinces and the Eastern Mediterranean. Things are not as they were and I don't believe Putin understands it entirely. The claimants on control of the region have increased in number, not decreased. 

As to the official Saudi financial resources vs. their Royal family resources, Saudi is not sovereign King Salman is the Sovereign of Saudi. The Royal family produces the future rulers of the country whether MBS or someone else. The Royal family and the sovereign fund has approximately $1.5 Trillion in assets to tap. Probably less than that after the market breakdown as everyone rushes to liquidate assets to raise cash for the revenue losses from the quarantine. But the funds can be had even if MBS has to lock up his family and shake the money out of them. He has already done so before and will do so again if the government is short of funds. So Putin's or Novak's game of bankruptcy brinkmanship is a losing proposition for Russia. It is very dangerous for Iran. 

As I pointed out before, Russia is in more of a bind than Putin thinks it is. Russia's "improved" finances are a problem for adjusting the Ruble, and the impact on society when the Ruble is weak is significant. Otherwise the CB of Russia would not have been spending reserves to stabilize the Ruble. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

That is about as upside down as you can get. The oil price war is about low prices and maximum production. The NOPEC act is about high prices and artificially suppressed production. The reality of it is that the US has a benefit from OPEC so long as prices don't exceed $70. 

There is another article by Simon Watkins about Putin's ultimate goal of running with Iran the oil fields from Iraq through Syria and sea ports in Hezbollah controlled Lebanon for Mediterranean ports, and the key to that is breaking the relationship of Saudi with the US, or alternatively breaking Saudi financially so that it can't fund the Sunni terrorist groups. But  there is a problem. The US remains there precisely to prevent Russia (and thus China) from controlling any oil in the middle east.

The demonstration of the US not caring about the Saudis was the non-retaliation against Iran when they bombed Abqaiq. Saudi is already clearly on its own. It has to pay for its own protection rather than get it because of its strategic value, nor for its oil. Yet US forces sit right there. They are there to ultimately take the oil if it is at risk of falling into Russian/Iranian/Chinese control. Turkey is a wild card there as it is starting to play a geopolitical role of its own separate from NATO, It is demonstrably not friendly with Syria and have dropped the relationship with Russia. Erdogan has "plans" to rebuild the Ottoman empire and get control of oil and gas resources of its former provinces and the Eastern Mediterranean. Things are not as they were and I don't believe Putin understands it entirely. The claimants on control of the region have increased in number, not decreased. 

As to the official Saudi financial resources vs. their Royal family resources, Saudi is not sovereign King Salman is the Sovereign of Saudi. The Royal family produces the future rulers of the country whether MBS or someone else. The Royal family and the sovereign fund has approximately $1.5 Trillion in assets to tap. Probably less than that after the market breakdown as everyone rushes to liquidate assets to raise cash for the revenue losses from the quarantine. But the funds can be had even if MBS has to lock up his family and shake the money out of them. He has already done so before and will do so again if the government is short of funds. So Putin's or Novak's game of bankruptcy brinkmanship is a losing proposition for Russia. It is very dangerous for Iran. 

As I pointed out before, Russia is in more of a bind than Putin thinks it is. Russia's "improved" finances are a problem for adjusting the Ruble, and the impact on society when the Ruble is weak is significant. Otherwise the CB of Russia would not have been spending reserves to stabilize the Ruble. 

@0R0 It doesn't get any simpler than you put it, as I have stated numerous  times on this forum these are the USS Golan Heights, USS Salman Tribe etc etc, these are US Aircraft Carriers, its a far bigger picture, than oil supply. If not there would have been an S400 mysteriously launched and returned to sender..... Taking Saudi out sounds like the easiest option if you were playing Risk. But the risk of total "regional" domination, land grab and the red wave is real.  People should listen to Steve Bannon he will leave you no doubts. 

Once again well posted.

Edited March 23, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton invited to OPEC's June meeting

This is going to get interesting...

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Railroad-Commissioner-Ryan-Sitton-invited-to-15146887.php

Edited March 23, 2020 by James Regan

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

40 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton invited to OPEC's June meeting

This is going to get interesting...

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Railroad-Commissioner-Ryan-Sitton-invited-to-15146887.php

I’m waiting for my invitation...

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I’m waiting for my invitation...

I'll have a word with Uncle Abdulaziz, just tried his phone his secretary told me he's is playing racket ball with Salman (won't take long), Ill get back to you, how many rooms?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

36 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I'll have a word with Uncle Abdulaziz, just tried his phone his secretary told me he's is playing racket ball with Salman (won't take long), Ill get back to you, how many rooms?

Good man! I owe you one.

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

On 23.03.2020 at 05:49, Douglas Buckland said:

Прежде всего, как вы можете «процитировать» меня кириллицей? Я не могу писать на кириллице. Это клевета.

Кроме этого .... напыщенная речь!

What is the "libel"? I am ready to confirm my words facts with links to internationally recognized sources!
If you do not provide evidence of my "slander." then you yourself will become a liar on the forum (like all public Americans and British))) - To the barrier!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Andrew Neopalimy said:

What is the "libel"? I am ready to confirm my words facts with links to internationally recognized sources!
If you do not provide evidence of my "slander." then you yourself will become a liar on the forum (like all public Americans and British))) - To the barrier!

No, dumbass! The fact that you are quoting me in a language I can not even write is libel!