'Green New Deal' extremist panic-mongering to collapse as low oil & gas & LNG prices crash

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Magical "Green" unicorn farts can't compete against $30 or $20 oil.

Expect oil & gas & LNG to regain market share globally, as low prices for hydrocarbons slaughter the Socialist Energy Panic egged on by Gore, Greta, UN and ilk.

Before this current oil price war started, Germany and other EU countries were already pushing back against new Wind farms.

Solar and wind will likely not increase market share this year, while hydro will remain static.  Will wait and see.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again!😂

[Kirk + 12]

Coal, oil, gas, in that order, will continue to lose market share to alternatives. The law essentially makes that so. 
 

#EndCoal is real. Soon SWIFT banks won’t be allowed to finance coal and don’t discount likelihood of American ban on coal exports by mid 2020s. 
 

Oil will lose all demand growth in next few years before demand falls in late 2020s. There is no way for car companies to meet mileage rules starting in 2025 without mass adoption of EVs. Petrochemicals have replacement tech already entering the market. 
 

Nat gas will replace some coal, but it isn’t the bridge fuel we, including me, thought it was. Alternatives are growing 20-30% per year and nat gas demand is barely rising. It’ll be around the longest for fossil fuels, but growth is almost over. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

The rise of renewables and EV's could be a little slower than expected but will nevertheless go on.

The energy transition out of fossils fuel is not only based on pure economic choices but is also a political choice.

With a very low oil price, expect some subsidies to RE and EV to be maintained or restored instead of being progressively removed. It's also a good opportunity for governments to introduce carbon taxes on fossil fuels and use this increased revenues to support the energy transition. In a context of falling energy prices consumers will not be hurt as they would have been if they were introduced with a 80$ barrel and this will avoid "yellow jackets" type of reaction.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

When the complex ecosystems supporting agriculture fail, you will find out that you cannot eat banknotes nor drink oil from the barrels. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Magical "Green" unicorn farts can't compete against $30 or $20 oil.

Expect oil & gas & LNG to regain market share globally, as low prices for hydrocarbons slaughter the Socialist Energy Panic egged on by Gore, Greta, UN and ilk.

Before this current oil price war started, Germany and other EU countries were already pushing back against new Wind farms.

Solar and wind will likely not increase market share this year, while hydro will remain static.  Will wait and see.

 

Makes total sense to me. Natural gas is virtually free. Free energy, they said it couldn't be done!

[George8944 + 128]

43 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Magical "Green" unicorn farts can't compete against $30 or $20 oil.

They can compete because governments say they can.  Stop looking at this from a dollars and cents view.  There are very few free market forces left in the energy sector.  Fossil fuels are in a rear guard action against government dictates.  They will lose.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, George8944 said:

They can compete because governments say they can.  Stop looking at this from a dollars and cents view.  There are very few free market forces left in the energy sector.  Fossil fuels are in a rear guard action against government dictates.  They will lose.

The people have the votes so it is their own fault if they plague themselves with higher prices and taxes plus ugly wind turbines over their beautiful landscapes. Turbines out at sea would be a much better idea. They can be built beyond the horizon. Don't forget how important tourism is to Europe. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 minutes ago, George8944 said:

They can compete because governments say they can.  Stop looking at this from a dollars and cents view.  There are very few free market forces left in the energy sector.  Fossil fuels are in a rear guard action against government dictates.  They will lose.

I actually didn't say anything about unicorns. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Kirk said:

Coal, oil, gas, in that order, will continue to lose market share to alternatives. The law essentially makes that so. 
 

#EndCoal is real. Soon SWIFT banks won’t be allowed to finance coal and don’t discount likelihood of American ban on coal exports by mid 2020s. 
 

Oil will lose all demand growth in next few years before demand falls in late 2020s. There is no way for car companies to meet mileage rules starting in 2025 without mass adoption of EVs. Petrochemicals have replacement tech already entering the market. 
 

Nat gas will replace some coal, but it isn’t the bridge fuel we, including me, thought it was. Alternatives are growing 20-30% per year and nat gas demand is barely rising. It’ll be around the longest for fossil fuels, but growth is almost over. 

Natural gas is still the best answer to energy for transportation, electricity, and replacing coal. It is obviously the lowest price and is very clean! CO2 alarmism is as bad as virus alarmism. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Cheap oil will slow the energy transition for sure.

However, temporary super-low prices might help them (greenie leftists) in long term as it will kill off some oil companies and reduce exploration; prices could end up bouncing higher.

Not so great for the political right either as their pro-oil agenda that was supposed to make people rich is just creating record high deficits.

Wind / solar doesn't care what Saudi Arabia does...

 

What is the opposite of a greenie?  A brownie?

Edited March 9, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Ronwagn 

The 2015 article "London Array Turns Two" provides an excellent operational (and by extension, economic) perspective on offshore whirley operations.

 

To describe the financials and operational 'efficiencies' as horrific would be an understatement.

 

Employing a small army of 92 workers, a fleet of 5 boats, this project intermittently produces ~350 Mw ... less than half what a new, small Combined Cycle Gas Plant reliably puts out with a full time staff of ~20 employees.

Private power providers self finance, whereas the whirley boys rely upon the "kahndess" of strangers/governments.

As a few upthread commentators noted, government dictat will be the primary impetus for the adoption of increased Ra/Zephyr worship ... but little might they suspect change be a'comin.

 

The seminal work in 2015 by the brilliant Dr. Valentina Zharkova - "Heartbeat of the Sun" - has roiled much of this Climate Alarmist movement ... but, seemingly, only at the topmost echelons.

 

The 8 page paper -  describing the sun's multiple asynchronous dynamos - only tangentially referenced climate effects ... but ... wow, WHAT a shitstorm ensued.

 

With a correlative accuracy of ~97 % spanning 400 years of measured climate history, Dr. Zharkova's projections are not only being taking seriously, her analysis is being corroborated by labs worldwide with NASA's Ames Research Center being but one.

The trough years 2028/2032 of the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum are being preceded by the increased appearance of translucent clouds, higher radiation readings at altitude, a shortening of growing seasons ... amongst other knock on effects of increased cosmic radiation reaching the earth.

 

So, Mr. Ronwagn, the end of this mass hysteria may not be too far off.

 

The over-the-top frenzied efforts to immediately - if not sooner - eliminate hydrocarbon use is a 100% certain sign that the cunning, influential top tier fraudsters recognize that their scam is coming to an end.

 

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

12 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Magical "Green" unicorn farts can't compete against $30 or $20 oil.

Green's best friend is high oil prices. Now assuming the current whiplash activities don't normalize, lack of investments will help drive oil up again in time, you can't just not drill and explore, no matter the price barrel.

Hope is not a strategy, but I hope some sanity returns sooner, rather than later. Or the least of our problems will be cheap oil.

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Kirk said:

Coal, oil, gas, in that order, will continue to lose market share to alternatives. The law essentially makes that so. 
 

#EndCoal is real. Soon SWIFT banks won’t be allowed to finance coal and don’t discount likelihood of American ban on coal exports by mid 2020s. 
 

Oil will lose all demand growth in next few years before demand falls in late 2020s. There is no way for car companies to meet mileage rules starting in 2025 without mass adoption of EVs. Petrochemicals have replacement tech already entering the market. 
 

Nat gas will replace some coal, but it isn’t the bridge fuel we, including me, thought it was. Alternatives are growing 20-30% per year and nat gas demand is barely rising. It’ll be around the longest for fossil fuels, but growth is almost over. 

None of that is going to happen. The goal posts for the car companies will move according to their progress in EVs, backwards even as people are moving out into the exurbs and buying TRUCKS.

The Swift system is being killed by the regulatory intrusion and know your customer. The number of banks participating and the number of pipes drops every year. If they don't stop It will soon be bypassed entirely via closed ledger cryptocurrency porting to bitcoin and the gold and silver markets and participating central banks, sort of the way Russia banks through Belgium's CB and Iran through the UAE CB. SWIFT is becoming steadily more iliquid each passing year.

Oil will lose demand regardless of what the car companies are doing because of the transition to (1) LNG power for shipping and heavy mining and construction equipment. (2) Petrochemical input transition to NG NGLs and LNG. (3) declining active age demographics in OECD + China. 

Yes, you can grow renewables for a while longer at 20%+, but we are beginning to stretch the limits of existing supply chains.. Iridium for Lithium processing equipment is already at $1500/oz. And little more is coming because of low Gold and PGM prices in recent years has slowed down exploration and development. Other key energy materials like Tellurium need new copper refining capacity. All of which is essentially in China. Which has been restricting access arbitrarily.   Neodymium for EV motors is also a Chinese choke hold.

The legal limits you expect will never happen. The breakdown of the economic system will bring even Warren to oppose it when pen and paper come together on the Oval Office desk. Only the genocidal psychopath envronmentalists would ever support such suicidal moves.  Germany is already drawing out its plans to use Lignite as a future fuel to fill in the downtime of their renewables, which is about 47% of the time that either solar or wind are not available. That will remain.