Analysis into the Iran Outbreak

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

Italy is a week behind Iran in the epidemic cycle and has now locked down the entire country. The US and UK are a week behind Italy.

While it's difficult to get accurate information out of Iran because of media blackouts and lack of testing, there are reports of overflowing hospitals with no masks, gloves, or oxygen and many doctors and nurses dying while trying to care for patients.

This article is a solid attempt at bias sampling to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the number of infections, placing the number at about 2 million.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Let’s see...lack of accurate information, silly wild assed guess at the numbers...sounds like fear mongering to me.

Could be a case of ‘publish or perish’. Regardless,,it is irresponsible.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

Given that Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have managed to hold back the tide using available tools, it seem irresponsible to me that much of Europe and the US are so lothe to follow their example.

What is happening in Iran is real, and it's happening because the government tried to sweep it under the carpet. We'll have the same issue here shortly if we continue on our merry way.

There's nothing irresponsible about creating educated estimates based on known data. That is all you can do when hard data is unavailable.

It's also frustrating to point out that, particularly in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill.  https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

Edited March 10, 2020 by Geoff Guenther
Added Time Magazine link

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

It's very likely the number of cases is underreported in Iran... (but also in the US). The reason can be a political attempt to minimize the epidemic  but can also  be caused by a lack of testing material... or both !

However I'm not sure that the Iranian political class can be considered as a representative sample of the Iranian population.  They have  probably traveled to China more frequently than the ordinary guy given the political and economic ties between these coutries. And once you have a member of parliament infected the virus can spreead quickly in the political elite.  This has happened also in France where 5 members of the parliament have been infected by the virus.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

2 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

However I'm not sure that the Iranian political class can be considered as a representative sample of the Iranian population. 

Agreed, and the likelihood of them shaking an infected person's hand is probably quite high during an election period. 

Rather than just take one set of sample data, though, he's used seven different sets to reduce error. All of them have some sort of error associated with them, but when you get enough sets with different error types you can begin to get a picture. The data really says that the number of infected people is somewhere between 500,000 and 5 million, compared to the official 8,000.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

The first two deaths from coronavirus in Iran were confirmed on the 19th of February but we don't know when the virus started to spread in the country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/two-iranians-die-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Let's hope it wasn't already there in the first days of January. Do you remember the huge crowds at the Suleymani funeral (January 5th) ? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Italy is a week behind Iran in the epidemic cycle and has now locked down the entire country. The US and UK are a week behind Italy.

While it's difficult to get accurate information out of Iran because of media blackouts and lack of testing, there are reports of overflowing hospitals with no masks, gloves, or oxygen and many doctors and nurses dying while trying to care for patients.

This article is a solid attempt at bias sampling to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the number of infections, placing the number at about 2 million.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

 

I think they are indicating that the likely number going forward is going to be pretty much the  entire country. Since beyond a million cases, you have practically all people who are contact nodes infected already or going to be very soon. The next step is that practically everyone has someone infected in their household 

Edited March 10, 2020 by 0R0

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Given that Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have managed to hold back the tide using available tools, it seem irresponsible to me that much of Europe and the US are so lothe to follow their example.

What is happening in Iran is real, and it's happening because the government tried to sweep it under the carpet. We'll have the same issue here shortly if we continue on our merry way.

There's nothing irresponsible about creating educated estimates based on known data. That is all you can do when hard data is unavailable.

It's also frustrating to point out that, particularly in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill.  https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways. Meanwhile his actions, and that of the entire government are being lied about by almost all of the mainstream media sources. They are guilty for much of the stock market losses and scare mongering going on. It is born out of the same desperation that the motivated the attempts to overthrow him since even before he was nominated and finally the phony attempt at impeachment. These lies are just more of the same. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways. Meanwhile his actions, and that of the entire government are being lied about by almost all of the mainstream media sources. They are guilty for much of the stock market losses and scare mongering going on. It is born out of the same desperation that the motivated the attempts to overthrow him since even before he was nominated and finally the phony attempt at impeachment. These lies are just more of the same. 

Spring is coming, it's getting warmer and the MSM will get bored and move on to something else.

Do you remember the days where actual journalists travelled to bring you the news and didn't just pop on to twitter and reuters to regurgitate the same crap talking points? Good days indeed

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

54 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Spring is coming, it's getting warmer and the MSM will get bored and move on to something else.

Do you remember the days where actual journalists travelled to bring you the news and didn't just pop on to twitter and reuters to regurgitate the same crap talking points? Good days indeed

 

Very true, but they did not have to compete with all of the free information available on the internet. My first choices are all alternate conservative media, but I also check the mainstream to see what their narrative is. It is invariably the worst they can dream up against conservatives. 

[frankfurter + 562]

23 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Given that Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have managed to hold back the tide using available tools, it seem irresponsible to me that much of Europe and the US are so lothe to follow their example.

What is happening in Iran is real, and it's happening because the government tried to sweep it under the carpet. We'll have the same issue here shortly if we continue on our merry way.

There's nothing irresponsible about creating educated estimates based on known data. That is all you can do when hard data is unavailable.

It's also frustrating to point out that, particularly in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill.  https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

"in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill. "

hmm, not too long ago, people in this forum were vehemently criticising the China CCP for silencing people, withholding information, being slow to react, allowing people to work and travel. One person called the CCP a pox upon humanity.  All this, while China had no idea what it was facing, as nobody prior had identified the virus.  Yet, the US govt is acting exactly the same way, using the VPOTUS power to control the narrative, and NONE of you are taking to the streets to protest.

The US govt KNOWS what it faces and KNOWS its actions are reprehensible.  So who is the pox? 

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

As much as I want to disagree with you, China used the tools at its disposal very effectively. Italy didn't take its testing seriously enough, and I don't think the UK has either.

The US administration has promised that this isn't a problem, though, hoping to either prop up the stock market or sooth Trump's vast ego. The virus is two steps ahead of them at any point.

• First they hoped China could contain it. That proved impossible, much to the joy of the press.
• Then they hoped borders would keep it out.  In reality the virus was already in the US.
• Then they tried to do testing. While Germany was producing testing kits, the CDC announces it doesn't have any but won't import test kits offered to it by WHO. The US still can't test for the virus in any significant number. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212
• Americans are now being told that they should self-isolate - this is where Italy was 4 weeks ago.

Now the US is in a place with no data, the administration is asking AG Barr to look at prosecuting papers that don't say what Trump wants, but most importantly, NO PLAN other than that it might bail out a few industries, such as the hotel industry.

The government should have said weeks ago what to do if you got the virus, including if you were on low income, needed food delivery, etc.  The government should have begun stockpiling additional equipment.  The CDC has stockpiled 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks.  With 3 million doctors and nurses those will be used in a couple of days.

The administration better get its act together rather than just pretending everything is ok.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 3/11/2020 at 3:01 AM, ronwagn said:

The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways. Meanwhile his actions, and that of the entire government are being lied about by almost all of the mainstream media sources. They are guilty for much of the stock market losses and scare mongering going on. It is born out of the same desperation that the motivated the attempts to overthrow him since even before he was nominated and finally the phony attempt at impeachment. These lies are just more of the same. 

A listing of what's really coming out of the White House, and make no mistake, Donald Trump runs the White House:

The White House

For the MSM, they seem to take everything the President says out of context and only showing mini-clips.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

We're seeing classic bear market rallies.  The market reacts faster then the US government because there isn't some dude at the top with some ideological bias slowing everything down.  I'll believe the corona virus thing is over once the market settles down.  Until then.....

Also, I thought we weren't supposed to trust the government, especially when it's saying "all is fine"? 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

We're seeing classic bear market rallies.  The market reacts faster then the US government because there isn't some dude at the top with some ideological bias slowing everything down.  I'll believe the corona virus thing is over once the market settles down.  Until then.....

Also, I thought we weren't supposed to trust the government, especially when it's saying "all is fine"? 

Things are not fine. The government, Trump included, are not reacting properly, not in time, and actually unwilling to suspend red tape to allow wide testing, treatment application, or approving a vaccine. There are actual acts of sabotage within the lower ranks below the director level in every branch that touches the covid 19 issue.

There is a problem of iliquidity in the money markets which is also being seen in volatility of Treasuries. This iliquidity dates back to before the outbreak and is coming out of China and got that much worse in the quarantine there. Now the demand for credit and cash is through the roof due to business interruption outside of China both from domestic issues and most of all from China supply chain disruptions. The Fed is not comprehending the scale of it and how much the regulations they enforce are directly the cause of these conditions in this context. They need to suspend capital requirements to year end, suspend the Volcker rule, and push out huge amounts of reserves buying assets throughout the credit quality spectrum. So long as the inflation breakevens keep falling on Treasuries vs. TIPs the Fed's actions are not being projected to be inflationary into the future. 

 

Note that Shale frac insiders are beginning to buy stock aggressively. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

There are actual acts of sabotage within the lower ranks below the director level in every branch that touches the covid 19 issue. ?????? Keep wearing the tinfoil

[Zhong Lu + 845]

32 minutes ago, notsonice said:

There are actual acts of sabotage within the lower ranks below the director level in every branch that touches the covid 19 issue. ?????? Keep wearing the tinfoil

In the old Soviet Union, anytime things went wrong it was "an act of sabotage."  The government over there was run by a bunch of conspiracy mongers who saw ANY problem as evidence of "saboteurs".  It was never their fault.  It was always the "saboteurs" fault.  Blah blah blah.  We all know how that government turned out.  

Maduro does the same, too, you know.  Economy is crashing? Sabotage.  "Enemies of the state are sabotaging our nation."  Etc etc.  Those people protesting in Syria in 2010? Foreign saboteurs. They're enemies of the nation. Bomb them. Etc. etc. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Bob D + 562]

This guy has it right IMHO.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[REAL Green + 65]

A lot of finger pointing going on here which is understandable.  Back to reality about how nature and human nature works.  This virus is dispersed enough now that there will be further waves down the road even when nations take steps to contain it like China.  This is the type of virus that has the tools of mutation and infectiousness.  The dark beauty of it is its variable infection period and human host type that then takes advantage of human’s globalistic living arrangements.  Symptoms are mild and that appears to be when the virus is the most infectious and contagious.  Children are great carriers and they are dependents and lack hygiene skills. 

 

Human survival requires globalism so this ensures a viral spread across the planet.  From what I see the best course of action is triage of sorts.  Quarantines are needed but balanced with the needs of maintaining a supply chain dependent on globalism.  This means nation wide quarantines can only last a short period or the system bifurcates worse than the spread of the pathogen.  A vaccine will likely be problematic with effectiveness because of the mutation ability and the nature of the infection profile.  You can’t vaccinate the world easily in a short time so even if one is effective this pathogen will continue to spread across the globe. 

 

I am wondering if Africa is somehow protected from this type of pathogen or just unable to report.  I am waiting to see how it spreads there.  It is a continent of young people so that will be an advantage but there are other issues like vulnerable healthcare systems compounded with existing multispectral challenges. 

 

The triage part is where we as a species are going to have to live with this pathogen just like a disease related to lifestyles.   A likely reality of this pathogen is the “cure can be worse than the disease”.  If globalism stops the food will eventually stop because all local places have been delocalized to some degree meaning food and supplies must come in from the outside.  Globalism must be weened off of over years just like that hardcore drugs people are on for psychological problems as an example.  Stopping suddenly is dangerous.  It is globalism that allows this virus to get around and find new infections.  These are tradeoffs and consequences of a trap globalism has the human population in.  Do we want to live in these types of traps or not but there are consequences either way?  More local security but less affluence and dangers of lacking global support.

Realgreenadaptation.blog

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, REAL Green said:

I am wondering if Africa is somehow protected from this type of pathogen or just unable to report.  I am waiting to see how it spreads there.  It is a continent of young people so that will be an advantage but there are other issues like vulnerable healthcare systems compounded with existing multispectral challenges. 

Agreed that triage is the path needed. It absolutely is in Africa, but will have spread more slowly because of fewer planes, classrooms, etc. Iran also has a very young population, and has been hit extremely hard. Unfortunately, you don't know that it's a problem until 3 weeks later when infected people have gotten sick and are having trouble breathing.

There is no good outcome to any of this pandemic. For the elderly and infirm it is life-threatening. For the oil guys it's a loss of lifestyle. For the enviros this could set back environmental progress by years. And just like you say, without globalism we can't deal with sporatic famines around the globe.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/11/2020 at 7:51 PM, frankfurter said:

"in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill. "

hmm, not too long ago, people in this forum were vehemently criticising the China CCP for silencing people, withholding information, being slow to react, allowing people to work and travel. One person called the CCP a pox upon humanity.  All this, while China had no idea what it was facing, as nobody prior had identified the virus.  Yet, the US govt is acting exactly the same way, using the VPOTUS power to control the narrative, and NONE of you are taking to the streets to protest.

The US govt KNOWS what it faces and KNOWS its actions are reprehensible.  So who is the pox? 

 

You are quoting one person’s opinion as fact. Your whole rant is based on a single opinion. Well done!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

44 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Agreed that triage is the path needed. It absolutely is in Africa, but will have spread more slowly because of fewer planes, classrooms, etc. Iran also has a very young population, and has been hit extremely hard. Unfortunately, you don't know that it's a problem until 3 weeks later when infected people have gotten sick and are having trouble breathing.

There is no good outcome to any of this pandemic. For the elderly and infirm it is life-threatening. For the oil guys it's a loss of lifestyle. For the enviros this could set back environmental progress by years. And just like you say, without globalism we can't deal with sporatic famines around the globe.

Quite possibly the Africans realize that this is some form of flu and have other pressing needs demanding their attention and resources. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/11/2020 at 5:31 PM, 0R0 said:

Things are not fine. The government, Trump included, are not reacting properly, not in time, and actually unwilling to suspend red tape to allow wide testing, treatment application, or approving a vaccine. There are actual acts of sabotage within the lower ranks below the director level in every branch that touches the covid 19 issue.

There is a problem of iliquidity in the money markets which is also being seen in volatility of Treasuries. This iliquidity dates back to before the outbreak and is coming out of China and got that much worse in the quarantine there. Now the demand for credit and cash is through the roof due to business interruption outside of China both from domestic issues and most of all from China supply chain disruptions. The Fed is not comprehending the scale of it and how much the regulations they enforce are directly the cause of these conditions in this context. They need to suspend capital requirements to year end, suspend the Volcker rule, and push out huge amounts of reserves buying assets throughout the credit quality spectrum. So long as the inflation breakevens keep falling on Treasuries vs. TIPs the Fed's actions are not being projected to be inflationary into the future. 

 

Note that Shale frac insiders are beginning to buy stock aggressively. 

The U.S.A. has 1,700 cases while Western Europe has 30,000 cases. I would say we are doing very well. The rest is propaganda. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/11/2020 at 6:07 PM, Zhong Lu said:

In the old Soviet Union, anytime things went wrong it was "an act of sabotage."  The government over there was run by a bunch of conspiracy mongers who saw ANY problem as evidence of "saboteurs".  It was never their fault.  It was always the "saboteurs" fault.  Blah blah blah.  We all know how that government turned out.  

Maduro does the same, too, you know.  Economy is crashing? Sabotage.  "Enemies of the state are sabotaging our nation."  Etc etc.  Those people protesting in Syria in 2010? Foreign saboteurs. They're enemies of the nation. Bomb them. Etc. etc. 

The Chinese are now saying that an American soldier brought Covid 19 to Wuhan!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/12/2020 at 8:09 AM, REAL Green said:

A lot of finger pointing going on here which is understandable.  Back to reality about how nature and human nature works.  This virus is dispersed enough now that there will be further waves down the road even when nations take steps to contain it like China.  This is the type of virus that has the tools of mutation and infectiousness.  The dark beauty of it is its variable infection period and human host type that then takes advantage of human’s globalistic living arrangements.  Symptoms are mild and that appears to be when the virus is the most infectious and contagious.  Children are great carriers and they are dependents and lack hygiene skills. 

 

Human survival requires globalism so this ensures a viral spread across the planet.  From what I see the best course of action is triage of sorts.  Quarantines are needed but balanced with the needs of maintaining a supply chain dependent on globalism.  This means nation wide quarantines can only last a short period or the system bifurcates worse than the spread of the pathogen.  A vaccine will likely be problematic with effectiveness because of the mutation ability and the nature of the infection profile.  You can’t vaccinate the world easily in a short time so even if one is effective this pathogen will continue to spread across the globe. 

 

I am wondering if Africa is somehow protected from this type of pathogen or just unable to report.  I am waiting to see how it spreads there.  It is a continent of young people so that will be an advantage but there are other issues like vulnerable healthcare systems compounded with existing multispectral challenges. 

 

The triage part is where we as a species are going to have to live with this pathogen just like a disease related to lifestyles.   A likely reality of this pathogen is the “cure can be worse than the disease”.  If globalism stops the food will eventually stop because all local places have been delocalized to some degree meaning food and supplies must come in from the outside.  Globalism must be weened off of over years just like that hardcore drugs people are on for psychological problems as an example.  Stopping suddenly is dangerous.  It is globalism that allows this virus to get around and find new infections.  These are tradeoffs and consequences of a trap globalism has the human population in.  Do we want to live in these types of traps or not but there are consequences either way?  More local security but less affluence and dangers of lacking global support.

Realgreenadaptation.blog

You are using the term globalism loosely. Globalism IMO entails global government control. It seems like you are referring to free trade, or free and fair trade which is definitely not globalism IMO.