Analysis into the Iran Outbreak

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

9 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Sadly, any reduction in carbon footprint is only temporary. Medium-term it increases our carbon output because R&D is one of the first things to be cut during a recession/depression and there may be less appetite for large expenditure on things like nuclear.

There are a few things that may help us aim for a lower-carbon future, though:

• We may see a reduction in meat consumption. The biggest pandemics have come from swine, chickens, civet cats, and now pangolin or bats. People are conscious that the worst diseases are crossing species.
• More local energy source means less global risk. It may be easier to manage spikes and troughs through local supply.
• Data. Just like with the coronavirus - all the data points to a coming crisis. It's becoming much more difficult to ignore the experts an go with the populists.

I find upside to this crisis somewhat unlikely, other than watching communities pull together. But I would like to be surprised.

I couldn’t care less about a ‘lower carbon future’. We’re all going to die at some point and there is a ‘quality of life’ issue you seem to ignore.

Perhaps we should all get rid of our wardrobes and just wear hazmat suits!

[REAL Green + 65]

“BofA Calls For "War-Time Measures", Urges Near-Total Fed Takeover Of Capital Markets”

https://tinyurl.com/t4mr6y5     zero hedge

 

“In short, BofA agrees with Zoltan Pozsar, who last week once again assessed the damage and said that the Fed will effectively have to backstop everyone and everything, in declaring a virtually total takeover of capital markets by the Fed, which is now in critical triage mode, designed to prevent further asset losses which from this point on, would have dire social and perhaps civilizations implications, potentially even the civil war that Time Magazine one mocked us for predicting  back in 2010 when we said that the Fed has put the US on collision course with armed social conflict.  And so, with days, if not hours left for capital markets them before the Federal Reserve effectively takes over all risk assets, here is BofA's note urging the Fed to go all the way, which we deem is a fitting eulogy for the free markets and capitalism…To keep the situation from escalating further, and avoid the continued haphazard upsizing of daily QE purchases, we believe the Fed put needs to be made explicit, unlimited in quantity, and with a well-defined strike. To that end further "war-time" measures are needed. We believe it is time for the Fed to unleash its full arsenal to prevent these conditions worsening. We think it possible the Fed takes several additional measures in coming days or weeks, including:  Federal Reserve undertakes Yield Curve Control (YCC) by defining yield targets across the UST curve, standing ready to buy in unlimited quantities of Treasuries at those yields irrespective of settle date or off-the-run status. This can support the coming record fiscal stimulus too, although communication would need to be clear to ensure dollar reserve status is not jeopardized. We think such as measure would be very effective at reducing current Treasury illiquidity and would like only need to be temporary in nature”

[REAL Green + 65]

Well, that escalated quick from the virus ain’t shit to a possible global economy no longer free market.  I have said for years the economy is the real systematic risk with so many problems that could cause it to fail.  We need to look on the bright side here.  There is a recognition by many who agree with honest science that the world needs a reset.  Many techno optimist or brown capitalist would disagree but most who at least trust science on the basic level of planetary decline know we are on a collision course with a limit’s boundary.  The problem with many who trust science on this level is on the level of solutions they are delusional with techno solutions maintaining the status quo of affluence.  I have repeatedly said affluence is not green so don’t try to green it.  A reset was not possible before this crisis by agreement because all we need to do is look at the Paris Accord which was a complete Joke.  China and India emissions were actually allowed to go up for a time and so forth.  At the point civilization is at it is only a crisis that will change things and survival is still not assured.  Things can still fall apart.

 

This pandemic is a great equalizer of all nations and classes.  While this FED put on everything and I might add backstopping the world is likely needed if for no other reason than to do the curve thing the health people are harping about with the virus and the health care system.  The point is this FED put is not going to save the economy but it will slow down the unravelling so hopefully issues can be resolved with some rationality.  Chaos is very destructive and lots of good real assets that people must have to survive could disappear eventually all the way to the food chain.  The food chain is monocultures, manufacturing, and transport.  Does that sound industrial and at risk?  Right the food system is very at risk. 

 

This may be the end of late stage capitalism and value chain globalism as we know it.  This will be a quick return to a poorer world.  Populations will no longer be allowed to grow because the food systems under these circumstances is not going to grow.  I see food system declining.  This means action is needed there albeit maybe a year or two down the road.  The rich are going to take the biggest haircut because much of their wealth was financial.  The poor will increase in number.  Localism and home economics will increase by default.  People will start gardening.  In fact, this should be promoted.  The 100% renewable world is now just a grand illusion because it will never happen.  Renewables should continue to be an industry supported and enhanced in decline because of how important they are to resilience. 

 

Life just got real if not surreal in the process.  When people see they have a greatly reduced budget either from less supply of things and at the same time less money then we are forced to adapt lower together as a people.  I am not sure if this will get very violent but do not be mistaken there will be places and peoples who will fall through the cracks.  On the international front nations must find some common ground on how to enter an economic depression as a group and avoid wars real or trade related.  Cooperation is needed more now than ever.  I am not optimistic beyond some cooperation at least in the short run.  This is scary for us all.  All nations are facing social disruptions that will be profound.  This is the great turning talked about for years.  Its here now.  Well, people don’t realize it but they must smell change in the air.  The virus is on everyone’s mind now so that is an understandable distraction.  Just wait until products are not available then the realization of a different world will be total.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

On 3/10/2020 at 1:26 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Let’s see...lack of accurate information, silly wild assed guess at the numbers...sounds like fear mongering to me.

Could be a case of ‘publish or perish’. Regardless,,it is irresponsible.

Your comments mature like the finest wine, sir. Two and half week later, New York healthcare system is overwhelmed, nurses face the infection dressed in black plastic garbage bags, because Trumps government failed at proper resosponse (after dismantling the national pandemic team), and the dead are piling up. 

As for "this is the end of the end stage capitalism as we know it", it was not sustainable anyway.

The brighest minds on the planet warned that capitalism is not sustainable for decades, but those in power profited and chose to ignore the warnings, and as a result, everyone will suffer. 

The "wealth" was just an illusion, since the global economy was grinding through the systems that kept humanity alive for millions of years - biodiversity, fresh, non-toxic food and water, fish population, arable land, water supply, mineral reserves, fossil fuels. 

If you are hacking at the very branch you are sitting on because the price of wood has gone up on the stock market, you are not rich. You are insane and suicidal. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Yoshiro Kamamura

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

13 minutes ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Your comments mature like the finest wine, sir. Two and half week later, New York healthcare system is overwhelmed, nurses face the infection dressed in black plastic garbage bags, because Trumps government failed at proper resosponse (after dismantling the national pandemic team), and the dead are piling up. 

First, there is alot more information available in the past 2.5 weeks than when I wrote that. This thing moves fast. 2.5 weeks ago I would never have imagined that I would be in lockdown for 4 weeks.

You seem to be an expert on damn near everything involved with this crisis; medical data and information, medical equipment, the workings of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, the hierarchy of the various entities in the US responsible for handling the crisis, etc...

How do you manage to carry around such a big head on such a spindly little pencil neck...🤔

Edited March 27, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
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