Analysis into the Iran Outbreak

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

34 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Rob, I get your point, I really do, but historically what precautions or actions have ‘you’ taken to protect the elderly from seasonal influenza, SARS, ebola, TB or any other infectious disease that has been out there? Have we gone into lockdown?

(PS: I am presently in lockdown in KL, will be interesting to see if it makes one iota of difference in 2 weeks other than driving the economy into recession in a country heavily dependent on oil revenues while the price of oil is headed into the cellar.

Douglas I think the difference with these other viral infections is that on most cases the wider population has now got some immunity to the viruses (not Ebola obviously). This is a particularly nasty one as it doesnt present symptoms for approx 1 week by which time poeple have spread it to dozens of others, thats the reason for the lockdown.

It may prove to be an over reaction, but looking at countries that have delayed this it has caused mayhem, Italy, Iran and Spain spring to mind. Countries that have stamped on it quickly ie China have done pretty well in controlling it IMO.

Good luck with the lockdown and stay safe pal.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Let’s see how this lockdown works here. They are having trouble enforcing it as people here live hand to mouth and need to keep their shops open. I would be willing to bet that it is being ignored rurally.

If it has no significant effect, the lockdown along with plummeting oil price will destroy the Malaysian economy.

Stay safe and healthy yourself!

[REAL Green + 65]

This is a battle of the bulge but in two dimensions.  Dimension one is the healthcare system.  Social distancing and quarantine are designed to flatten the bulge.  Working in the other direction is the economics of a shut down.  The bulge here can only be balanced but getting people back to doing things at a point.  Keep in mind the longer a complex economy is in a shut down the more difficult the reboot to normal.  What is worse this is global so even if a complex economy like China reboots it still must wait on the rest of the world to reboot.  So, we have one chain going one way and another going the other.  The difficult task is to balance the two.  Fear and negative sentiment are bad for both directions and they negatively reinforce both apathy to quarantine for selfish reasons but also a lack of confidence to engage in economic activity.  This is systematic so self-emergent results of billions of decisions.  Finger pointing is normal but not of much use here.  Really it is about science, math, and leadership.  The leadership is for making tough choices.  The science and math must guide these choices.  All is not lost but everyone needs a wake-up call that life will not return to normal. 

 

Normal is over and what the new normal is can only be found over time.  It most likely will be poorer and with less comfort.  In some places it will be worse.  It is critical now that the degree and duration of these actions that are really opposing tensions must be navigated with a wisdom of triage.  Triage with the acceptance of human death but also triage of economic activity.  Some think this death rate is OK.  You know survival of the fittest and clean out the old and sick but the fail to understand the 10% of the population that run every day vital things will be dying.  These people are the human critical infrastructure that keeps a complex world of complicated systems going.  So, what this means is yes, the medical bulge is critical but also the value chains supplying food and supplies in a globalized delocalized world are just important.  What is needed now is a confidence and hope but also sacrifice and acceptance of hardship.  I am not sure enough of the population cares anymore.  Basic human values have been destroyed by the relative nature of globalism.  Globalism brought us great riches and knowledge but personally I think it destroyed more because it does not scale to the planet so in effect it was a malinvestment like a typical Ponzi or asset bubble.  In any case we are trapped in it so somehow, we must adapt it or collapse.   

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I think that most common people are more resilient than you are giving the credit for. I also think that we will be back to normal sooner rather than later with a tweaking of the globalization nonsense.

[canadas canadas + 136]

This link says that there are actually close to 6000 CV deaths in Iran.

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/human-rights/27570-iran-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-5-950-in-194-cities

[James Regan + 1,776]

19 minutes ago, canadas canadas said:

This link says that there are actually close to 6000 CV deaths in Iran.

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/human-rights/27570-iran-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-5-950-in-194-cities

Is this spam

[REAL Green + 65]

"I think that most common people are more resilient than you are giving the credit for. I also think that we will be back to normal sooner rather than later with a tweaking of the globalization nonsense."

 

Man, I hope so my life has been pretty good overall despite getting older and going through the process of age decline.  Probably this return to normal will be location base but also behavior based.  People that are living the wrong lifestyles based upon a way of life that is clearly in flux probably will be disappointed.  If you live in a place maladjusted to this change likewise disappointment.  Those who have embraced change earlier probably less so.  Of course there is the lucky ones who just are in the right place at the right time.  There is also dumb luck which I am sure is at a premium these days.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

3 hours ago, James Regan said:

Is this spam

No but this is!

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

I see no reason that the US should fare worse than other countries. The problem in the US is still rather small in comparison to Europe. But when infections grow 10 times every two weeks, the lack of rigorous testing means there's a lot of guesswork involved.

This past weekend we're still seeing idiots in Europe running music festivals - idiots are everywhere! Unfortunately, it means that when governments finally react they have to over-react, obviously harming the market at the same time.

The UK has hinted at guidance for anyone over 70 that they may be need to self-isolate for up to 4 months! I'm working with a couple of local clubs now to help seniors and other high-risk people. Someone with slight dementia could very will be mentally gone after looking at their wall for 4 months. Anything to help them talk to others, or an outdoor exercise class if the government allows.

A complete lockdown - like what Douglas is now enduring - should be avoidable, but only if people get in front of the problem. We have another 12 months of working to balance the economy and the pandemic response properly.

Douglas, I hope you stay sane in the meantime.

[Daniel Ryslink + 19]

On 3/10/2020 at 9:01 PM, ronwagn said:

The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways...

Someone vent out all the opium smoke, and back to planet Earth:

Trump's response to the coronavirus (his words)

 

January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

 

February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”

 

February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

 

February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”

 

February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”

 

February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

 

February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”

 

February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

 

February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”

 

March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”

 

March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”

 

March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”

 

March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”

 

March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”

 

March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”

 

March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”

 

March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”

 

March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”

 

March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”

 

March 9: “This blindsided the world.”

 

March 9: "The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant.”

 

March 10: "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

 

How can a simpleton who is clearly out of touch with basics of what's what and what's going on possible do something meaningful? Self delusion of the Trump herd is beyond belief. 

[Daniel Ryslink + 19]

On 3/10/2020 at 9:01 PM, ronwagn said:

The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways...

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Daniel Ryslink
Double

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 3/17/2020 at 12:47 AM, ronwagn said:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html What is really important is that death and permanent health damage is avoided and that we treat as soon and as well as possible. Whatever the disease, this is the criteria that should be used. 0.018 is an acceptable death rate against any critical disease. Especially when it kills off the oldest and least vigorous patients. 

Ron latest statement

@Trump echoes a sentiment he expressed a week ago. "We need to keep calm." But adds, the level of contagion has been "incredible." Some states though reporting severe lack of tests kits- Atlanta reportedly has 50 a day. Population of 486,000.

This suggests the 0.018% death rate is a nonsense!

The US is basically admitting it isnt testing and therefore any reported death rates cannot hold any water.

7% of those tested are testing positive, extrapolated on the US population is approx. 23 million!

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Douglas, I hope you stay sane in the meantime.

Douglas sane? Who are you trying to kid😂

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Daniel Ryslink said:

March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”

Yep 50 per day available in Atlanta in a population of 486,000

Just about right?   Errr not quite!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Dr. Deborah Birx says they have a testing backlog so "our curve will not be stable till sometime next week." Says Atlanta issues will be resolved once tests by ThermoFisher completed.

Its nice to see its not just the UK that is incompetent in handling this!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

If I was an independent in the shale patch I'd cash in for what I could get and invest the lot in Walmart, Toliet roll manufacturers and hand sanitizer manufacturers.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

UK shut all schools indefinitely

testing 25,000 per day

32 more deaths today with 676 testing positive

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Douglas sane? Who are you trying to kid😂

I just meant saner than m🤪e.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 3/17/2020 at 11:09 AM, Rob Plant said:

Also what has happened to Jan Van Eck??

 

On 3/17/2020 at 11:30 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Jan still lurks here, as far as I know.

 

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/10501-oil-biz-2020-and-beyond/#comment-95592

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron latest statement

@Trump echoes a sentiment he expressed a week ago. "We need to keep calm." But adds, the level of contagion has been "incredible." Some states though reporting severe lack of tests kits- Atlanta reportedly has 50 a day. Population of 486,000.

This suggests the 0.018% death rate is a nonsense!

The US is basically admitting it isnt testing and therefore any reported death rates cannot hold any water.

7% of those tested are testing positive, extrapolated on the US population is approx. 23 million!

Is that your estimate for the record Rob?!

 

 

[Daniel Ryslink + 19]

Also, it was Trump who disbanded the US National Pandemic Response team. Today, he "does not remember" - of course. It was also him who ordered compiling a list of NASA scientists participating on climate change research. "Doing what he can" - yeah, right. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron latest statement

@Trump echoes a sentiment he expressed a week ago. "We need to keep calm." But adds, the level of contagion has been "incredible." Some states though reporting severe lack of tests kits- Atlanta reportedly has 50 a day. Population of 486,000.

This suggests the 0.018% death rate is a nonsense!

The US is basically admitting it isnt testing and therefore any reported death rates cannot hold any water.

7% of those tested are testing positive, extrapolated on the US population is approx. 23 million!

 

 

You are lying or mistaken about that being MY statement. Please be more careful in your attributions!

The logical way to look at damage is what percentage survive and how many have lasting damage after treatment. Anything else is just detail. Testing is just testing, it doesn't cure anyone but it may prevent some contagion. 

I am looking forward to seeing how the U.S.A. does against everyone else. The best thing we have done so far is closing our borders early, that credit all goes to President Trump. Europe failed to follow his lead and criticised him for it. Now they have followed his lead. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron genuine question. in what ways are the US medical systems superior than those in Europe?

better equipment? Please give examples

better systems? If so in what way?

more efficient? If so again explain how

better hospital administration and practices? Again please explain

more testing? At present this isn’t so

if we in Europe aren’t up to speed with the US then it’s something to raise at a political level.

i actually doubt there is much if any difference, maybe some countries may be more proficient in some areas but I doubt in all.

would be genuinely interested to know, can you give examples rather than just opinion though.

cheers

I am not talking about equipment or technology or even trained personnel but about the true availability of quality treatment on demand, not just when the government says you can show up for treatment. Often the delays are serious and cost lives or severe discomfort and permanent health losses. 

Already, I am reading that triage will be used in Europe and that elderly will need to stay home and possibly die. That is what happens when you let government run your health care. Triage is a good and logical plan for mass casualty situations. I am very grateful that I do not have to be dependent on government health care. If Europeans remain happy with the status quo that will say a lot. If Americans are happy with our systems that will say a lot also. 

America has wealthy people from all over the world come here for top medical care. Many probably go to Europe also. I have worked in our top military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany. That is where we airlift our wounded warriors from the Middle East. Germany has a complicated medial system but at least it allows for private payers and private insurance. 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

20 hours ago, Boat said:

Warren Buffett has 135 billion in cash. You’ll be hearing soon the companies he snaps up. 

One of his sons lives a few miles from me. He is a great benefactor for the local area!

[RichieRich216 + 454]

China, Iran will never provide the actual number of infections let alone deaths!

What we need to do is find out the real source of this and make them held accountable.