Poland closes all schools and kindergartens for 2 weeks. Children are the most efficient, stealth spreaders of coronavirus.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I’m going to go out and lick escalator handrails and pay people to sneeze on me in the hope of getting one, or several, of these viruses!!!!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

4 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

That is some great analysis, and the governments should be using that as the basis for both policy and communication right now. 

Last night's bizarre speech - blaming everything on foreigners when the virus has already been circulating in the US for two months - was completely unhelpful and has just battered markets even more. Like you said, we're two months late for the policies announced. 

What are the domestic policies? Are we going to stop the St Patrick's Day parade? What were the problems with the testing and when do you think people can start getting tested? 

Four years ago the US would have taken the lead worldwide in stemming the crisis. Today the country is trying not to implode on itself while it puts up walls all around. 

How could the US possibly ‘take the lead’ when the outbreak originated in another sovereign country which was not readily releasing information? Why wasn’t the EU or Russia ‘taking the lead’?

You quickly castigate the US for not ‘solving the problem’ while failing to mention that nobody else was doing a damn thing either.

I sense an anti-American bias here. Which is fine, just own up to it.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How could the US possibly ‘take the lead’ when the outbreak originated in another sovereign country which was not readily releasing information? Why wasn’t the EU or Russia ‘taking the lead’?

You quickly castigate the US for not ‘solving the problem’ while failing to mention that nobody else was doing a damn thing either.

I sense an anti-American bias here. Which is fine, just own up to it.

Read this entire article, for a clear answer to your questions.  Excerpts below:

Prescient Trump

The level of media opposition and snark against President Trump is simply so ridiculous at this point there’s a desperation to it.  So let us consider…

From the outset of Donald Trump’s entry into the world of politics he espoused a series of key tenets around what he called his “America-First” objectives:

The U.S. needed to have control over our borders, and a greater ability to control who was migrating to the United States.  A shift toward stopping ‘illegal’ migration.

The U.S. needed to stop the manufacture of goods overseas and return critical manufacturing back to the United States.  A return to economic independence.
The U.S. needed to decouple from an over-reliance on Chinese industrial and consumer products.  China viewed as a geopolitical and economic risk.

Donald Trump was alone on these issues.  No-one else was raising them; no-one else was so urgently pushing that discussion. In 2015, 2016 and even 2017, no-one other than Trump was talking about how close we were to the dependence point of no return.

Given the status of very consequential issues stemming from the Chinese Coronavirus threat; and the myriad of serious issues with critical supply chain dependencies; wasn’t President Trump correct in his warnings and proposals?  ...

 

... Now, with the global pandemic known as Coronavirus, people are starting to awaken to the real dangers of our medicines, pharmaceuticals and critical health care products being made overseas.  Right now we see the clear reasons why President Trump was so adamant about a conversation no-one wanted, Wall Street hated, and few were paying attention to.

Heck, it is only now that most Americans realize just how many critical products are at risk…. and instead of thanking President Trump for the foresight, the incredible prescience he exhibited, the professional political class are criticizing him for over minor details in addressing an issue they allowed to happen.  In many cases those who are now criticizing are the same people who participated in assisting the dependency, for decades.

The criticism is not only unreal to witness, it’s maddening in the scale of its hypocrisy.

On January 30th while Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler and Chuck Schumer were literally trying to impeach President Trump; on that very day President Trump was assembling a task force in advance of his authorization for HHS Secretary Alex Azar to declare a proactive national health emergency.

On the exact same day the Senate was debating whether to call more witnesses for the Senate impeachment trial, the newly assembled Coronavirus Task Force was holding a press conference to outline: in accordance with the national health emergency declaration, at 5:00 p.m. EST; Sunday, February 2nd, the U.S government would implement temporary measures to increase detection & containment of the coronavirus proactively: 

Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who was in Hubei Province in the previous 14 days was/is subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine. Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who was in the rest of Mainland China within the previous 14 days was put through proactive entry health screening at a select number of ports of entry, and up to 14 days of monitored self-quarantine. All foreign nationals, other than U.S. citizens and permanent residents, who traveled in China within the prior 14 days were denied entry into the United States.  (link)

 

Simultaneous to this joint HHS, CDC and NIH announcement, on the other side of Capitol Hill, the U.S. Senate voted on whether to add additional impeachment witnesses; and what the impeachment process would be moving forward.

Guess which event the media covered?….

So perhaps it’s not a surprise that most Americans did not know about the proactive steps that President Trump was taking.  After all, the entirety of the media focus was on a ridiculous Senate impeachment trial while the White House Coronavirus mitigation effort was happening.

However, it sure is blood-boiling to watch the media now. To see the media cheer-leading for a national health crisis -literally with smiling faces as they hope for an economic collapse- for the exact same gleeful reason they cheered the impeachment effort.   The level of U.S. media vitriol against President Trump is sickening.

The American mainstream media truly is the enemy of a prosperous and thriving America.  ...

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

20 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How could the US possibly ‘take the lead’ when the outbreak originated in another sovereign country which was not readily releasing information? Why wasn’t the EU or Russia ‘taking the lead’?

You quickly castigate the US for not ‘solving the problem’ while failing to mention that nobody else was doing a damn thing either.

I sense an anti-American bias here. Which is fine, just own up to it.

 

8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The level of media opposition and snark against President Trump is simply so ridiculous at this point there’s a desperation to it.

Attacking the messenger is a nice fallback when you don't want to admit how badly this adminstration has messed up the pandemic response.

The US has led the west in every crisis for the last 80 years. For the most part the US has done a good job and that is why the west has been so stable for close to a century. Now we have a president who not only has ignored a major problem that everyone has seen coming, but has contributed to it by making things worse.

• The CDC, in 2018 had to cut it's foreign workers focused on global disease from 49 to 10 countries
• The administration got rid of its pandemic response team
• The administration until yesterday called COVID19 a "liberal hoax" perpetrated by the media
• Yesterday, when Trump finally announces measures, he provokes a global financial crisis by blaming everything on the Chinese and Europeans and shutting down borders

Any other US Administration would have had feet on the ground to understand the disease before it even got to the US, would have pressed Europe and others to implement measures, and would have communicated a plan to both its own people and other countries.

Instead we have a guy who pretends that nothing is a problem until it's too big to deal with and then causes a market meltdown with a non-solution.

[Marcin2 + 725]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

As Guillaume points out who looks after the children when they aren't at school? Not the parents as they'll be at work.

So who does that leave?? yes you've got it the grandparents, the MOST susceptible demograph and the MOST likely to die from catching it.

if you think that is a good response and a good idea then I dont understand your logic at all.

Starting yesterday children have contacts only with geandparents and parents, No other contacts at all.

Probability that grandparents are infected by grandchildren very small as only 47 cases in Poland.

Parents are teleworking and only going for shopping once every 2 days in a mask  for some necessities that could not be hoarded till the end of March.

I do not see much risk. 
If you can see Please write about it.

[Marcin2 + 725]

If there would be lockdown it would be the most difficult for small children. In the typical lower Middle class gated community I live in we have only a small playground and a small park to have a walk within the fenced perimeter. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Starting yesterday children have contacts only with geandparents and parents, No other contacts at all.

Probability that grandparents are infected by grandchildren very small as only 47 cases in Poland.

Parents are teleworking and only going for shopping once every 2 days in a mask  for some necessities that could not be hoarded till the end of March.

I do not see much risk. 
If you can see Please write about it.

Marcin read this its very interesting but also scary, I think it is bordering on scaremongering IMO but well worth reading.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

It was posted by @Bob D on another thread

One of the things it says is that for every reported case there are actually 27 (based on the evidence from Wuhan), therefore your 47 cases is actually more like 1269.

Its too early to say how this will play out, is it just another flu? or is it a real killer in the 1M+ bracket?

China went on lockdown after 400 reported cases Italy have reacted a lot later.

One thing is for sure, those working in the funereal service sector are going to be busy for quite a while!

Edited March 12, 2020 by Rob Plant

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

That is some great analysis, and the governments should be using that as the basis for both policy and communication right now. 

Last night's bizarre speech - blaming everything on foreigners when the virus has already been circulating in the US for two months - was completely unhelpful and has just battered markets even more. Like you said, we're two months late for the policies announced. 

What are the domestic policies? Are we going to stop the St Patrick's Day parade? What were the problems with the testing and when do you think people can start getting tested? 

Four years ago the US would have taken the lead worldwide in stemming the crisis. Today the country is trying not to implode on itself while it puts up walls all around. 

Agree that Trump's speech was uninspired and not that beneficial.

The big problem is that the Fed has been silent for a week while the money markets go from distress to breakdown. So bad that Treasuries have become iliquid. Demand for cash liquidity is skyrocketing as should have been super clear and obvious as companies draw on their credit lines even more than before, and need to raise cash  to substitute for payments lacking in their business (travel and hospitality) or supply chains waiting on parts. 

They finally woke up with a large $1.5 T liquidity injection process. Unfortunately, it is not based on any market metrics but simply a weekly schedule. Meaning that it is already too small now and likely to be revised. The Fed still has this underscaled. Travel and hospitality is the largest global employment sector at 1/7 of world GDP. It is heading for near total shutdown. 

Dollar swaps are bearing really bad spreads that are not being addressed by the Fed actions directly. Those will require swap arrangements with the major central banks. It has been a troubled area for two years now due to lower leverage limits on US banks vs. Eurodollar banks. 

Ludicrously small downgrades of GDP projections from economists are not looking at forward events that MUST happen due to covid 19 containment needs, whether officials stand behind them or are done on the private side. Employers already started emptying urban offices and where technology access (e.g. financial and commodity trading) requires physical presence they are splitting the workforce into alternating shifts so as to maintain isolation between them so that they have one live group if the other goes into quarantine. 

I should add that the markets are also responding to the lessened likelihood of a Trump reelection in the aftermath of the US outbreak and thus a greater chance for a Dem president and a Dem sweep in congress. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by 0R0

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

If there would be lockdown it would be the most difficult for small children. In the typical lower Middle class gated community I live in we have only a small playground and a small park to have a walk within the fenced perimeter. 

You should take the kids out to the woods or fields for outdoor time. They should not be in contact with other kids in urban environments, or you defeat the purpose of the school closures.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

44 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

You should take the kids out to the woods or fields for outdoor time. They should not be in contact with other kids in urban environments, or you defeat the purpose of the school closures.

That's the plan here. Head out camping or at least hiking with the kids. It'll be a great time to experience nature, especially with the low gas prices. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Any other US Administration would have had feet on the ground to understand the disease before it even got to the US, would have pressed Europe and others to implement measures, and would have communicated a plan to both its own people and other countries.

Instead we have a guy who pretends that nothing is a problem until it's too big to deal with and then causes a market meltdown with a non-solution.

Your TDS is apparently incurable.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

While memes are great and all, it's usually good to check better source material. Obama declared a national health emergency the month after the swine flu was discovered in Mexico. 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/04/facebook-posts/president-obama-declared-h1n1-public-health-emerge/

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Starting Monday, all schools, high-schools and universities will be closed in France until further notice. The decision was announced by president Macron in a televised address to the Nation. Schools also  to close in Belgium and Portugal.

I think the French decision could push also Switzerland towards school closures. An online petition asking to close the schools in the canton where i live is gathering growing support.

 

 

 

[George8944 + 128]

Here in Ohio (USA) our governor has closed all schools for 3 weeks,  all bars and restaurant must reduce capacity by 50% and all public gatherings (concerts, political debates, etc) of more than 100 people are cancelled.  
 

Stores are running out of toilet paper and milk!  It’s been one huge unnecessary, media induced panic.  One of the worst examples of humanity I’ve seen in a long time.   I’m waiting for the riots.

[George8944 + 128]

9 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

How could the US possibly ‘take the lead’ when the outbreak originated in another sovereign country

You lead by telling the world what you plan on doing when it finally comes ashore here.  You go all in helping other nations fight the virus on their turf before it comes ashore.  You act as the information clearinghouse. You Put the full strength and resources of the government behind funding whomever to find a vaccine.   I can go on, but you get the idea.  

China probably would have refused our help, but our Allies probably would not.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, George8944 said:

You lead by telling the world what you plan on doing when it finally comes ashore here.  You go all in helping other nations fight the virus on their turf before it comes ashore.  You act as the information clearinghouse. You Put the full strength and resources of the government behind funding whomever to find a vaccine.   I can go on, but you get the idea.  

China probably would have refused our help, but our Allies probably would not.  

Wasn't exactly a possibility. Chinese banned CDC from seeing anything nor obtaining samples. There were 3 CDC doctors in the Beijing office and were not allowed any access. China was on full cover up mode and it stayed that way. 

So the US CDC had one sample to work with for the critical weeks. India and Germany had more samples. No idea where India got theirs. 

I don't know what they could have done. Besides, the botched first go at a test kit was hardly going to help anyone.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

4 hours ago, George8944 said:

You lead by telling the world what you plan on doing when it finally comes ashore here.  You go all in helping other nations fight the virus on their turf before it comes ashore.  You act as the information clearinghouse. You Put the full strength and resources of the government behind funding whomever to find a vaccine.   I can go on, but you get the idea.  

China probably would have refused our help, but our Allies probably would not.  

As long as we pay for everything....

Just what are our ‘allies’ doing to either prevent the spread of this virus OUTSIDE of their borders and what efforts are THEY taking to find a cure?🤔

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Corona Virus tests FALSE POSITIVES more than half the time, up to 80% of the time.

 

From US National Library of Medicine / National Institute of Health - posted on PubMed.gov

[Potential False-Positive Rate Among the 'Asymptomatic Infected Individuals' in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients]

[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]

Zhuang GH¹, Shen MW, Zeng LX, Mi BB, Chen FY, Liu WJ, Pei LL, Qi X, Li C.

Author information

Abstract

in English, Chinese

Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. 

Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. 

Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. 

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

KEYWORDS:

COVID-19; Close contacts; False-positive; Nucleic acid test; Screening

PMID:

 

32133832

 

DOI:

 

10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200221-00144

[Marcin2 + 725]

6 hours ago, George8944 said:

Here in Ohio (USA) our governor has closed all schools for 3 weeks, 
 

Stores are running out of toilet paper and milk!  It’s been one huge unnecessary, media induced panic.  One of the worst examples of humanity I’ve seen in a long time.   I’m waiting for the riots.

In Poland since the start of thus week, for 5 days, there is a huge buying frenzy, I have not seen anything like this my whole life.

There is still milk and toilet paper, but there is difficulty in getting meat, eggs, canned food, pasta, rice.

Some official German State guidelines relating to hoarding in disasters were leaked in Poland, and people want to have 10-30 days of everything in the storage and freezers.

I am not a hoarder but had to adjust to herd mentality and also hoard food and sanitation for 2-3 weeks.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Media induced ‘feeding frenzy’. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

As long as we pay for everything....

Just what are our ‘allies’ doing to either prevent the spread of this virus OUTSIDE of their borders and what efforts are THEY taking to find a cure?🤔

I can answer that for you Douglas

Absolutely nothing!

I don't see any European countries helping the US or any other foreign country in any way whatsoever.

Its every man for himself!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

39 Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. and 26 of those deaths are linked to *ONE* NURSING HOME in Seattle.

You have a brain, use it for thinking.  This MSM induced fearmongering is nuts.

More than 60% of the US's coronavirus deaths are linked to a Washington nursing home. Here's what we know about the outbreak there.

Because the coronavirus spreads via droplets when people are in close contact and is especially risky for people over 80, a nursing home can be a dangerous breeding ground for an outbreak.
 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

58 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

In Poland since the start of thus week, for 5 days, there is a huge buying frenzy, I have not seen anything like this my whole life.

There is still milk and toilet paper, but there is difficulty in getting meat, eggs, canned food, pasta, rice.

Some official German State guidelines relating to hoarding in disasters were leaked in Poland, and people want to have 10-30 days of everything in the storage and freezers.

I am not a hoarder but had to adjust to herd mentality and also hoard food and sanitation for 2-3 weeks.

In the UK there has been no toilet paper, hand sanitizing gel or soap for weeks.

Panic buying is the new norm apparently.

The media have a lot to answer for!

A guy at work has even bought a second freezer to store all of his extra food he has stockpiled!!!

The world has gone crazy.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

There are several theories of how this virus originated, but to be honest does it really matter anymore?

It seems our ability to increase the longevity of peoples lives through social care, medical advancements etc etc is actually against the natural norm (or nature for that matter).

Call me callous or without empathy but this virus seems to be weeding out the weak and infirm just as it would with every other species on the planet. We moan that our ageing population is causing catastrophic pollution, and that financially it is unsustainable, maybe this is the natural answer to balancing the population once again.

We talk about businesses needing to be lean and fit, where the weak will go to the wall. The same is in the natural world, Darwin's survival of the fittest springs to mind.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

57 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I can answer that for you Douglas

Absolutely nothing!

I don't see any European countries helping the US or any other foreign country in any way whatsoever.

Its every man for himself!

China is currently supplying aid to Italy. Seriously. I can't get over that China is becoming the US right now.