Rip. S&P.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Yeah.  

[Otis11 + 551]

Ah, end of the bull market (by a few cents) but not end of the index...

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Well I'm no expect but for anyone with money this is a golden time to double your money in a year...at least

I've seen it before and everytime I've been up layed off and poor, although I had friends that bet everything and borrowed to invest....would be interesting to get in touch and find out if they made millions lol

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The timing gets tricky.  Bear market rallies are full of spikes in both directions.  They kill all sides, including shorts.  

One rule: if you get caught on the wrong end of the spike, regardless of direction, don't baghold.  Take the loss and sell immediately.  If you get whipsawed, so be it.  It sucks, but it's better then bagholding and you'll have your money for the next trade.  Doesn't matter if you're long or short.

Trading in bear markets is different from trading in normal markets.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Like I said in another thread, If you could grab service comapny shares at a time like this and be ok with holding a few months you'd probably make a lot...chance might have already passed but service companies are pretty safe and can also move a lot if you follow the market

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

The timing gets tricky.  Bear market rallies are full of spikes in both directions.  They kill all sides, including shorts.  

One rule: if you get caught on the wrong end of the spike, regardless of direction, don't baghold.  Take the loss and sell immediately.  If you get whipsawed, so be it.  It sucks, but it's better then bagholding and you'll have your money for the next trade.  Doesn't matter if you're long or short.

Trading in bear markets is different from trading in normal markets.  

‘Whipsawed’, ‘baghold’.....and people think the oilfield language is odd!

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Whipsawed = buy at peak.  Immediately dips.  You sell. Then it immediately goes back up again.

Baghold= holding something that's obviously tanking.  You take a loss on something and instead of selling you hold on in the hopes of recouping your money and lose even more in the following days.  Basically you're left holding an empty bag while everyone else is running away.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

2 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Like I said in another thread, If you could grab service comapny shares at a time like this and be ok with holding a few months you'd probably make a lot...chance might have already passed but service companies are pretty safe and can also move a lot if you follow the market

Experience has taught me to never underestimate the perseverance of bears when bargain hunting.  They tend to be right more often then not.  There's traders on Stocktwits talking about buying XOM at 23.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Whipsawed = buy at peak.  Immediately dips.  You sell. Then it immediately goes back up again.

Baghold= holding something that's obviously tanking.  You take a loss on something and instead of selling you hold on in the hopes of recouping your money and lose even more in the following days.  Basically you're left holding an empty bag while everyone else is running away.

Sounds an awful lot like gambling to me, and I’d be willing to bet, just as addictive.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

48 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Sounds an awful lot like gambling to me, and I’d be willing to bet, just as addictive.

Haha sounds like you should be doing it then Douglas!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Haha sounds like you should be doing it then Douglas!

No, no, no! I have studiously avoided gambling for 60 years...after watching too many people lose their asses!

Not that trading is a full on ‘game of chance’ as I assume serious traders do serious research, but I have watched completely sane professional people walk into a casino and go totally off the rails! It is a Jekyll and Hyde scenario.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

In the UK it is estimated 500 gamblers take their own life each year

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7902859/How-500-people-kill-year-getting-hooked-gambling.html

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

In the UK it is estimated 500 gamblers take their own life each year

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7902859/How-500-people-kill-year-getting-hooked-gambling.html

I’ve heard that the addiction is similar to alcoholism...

Zhong doesn’t drink so he should be fine...right up to the point where he gets the ol’ CV from using the handrail on an escalator, then it’s tits up for our trading colleague! In this case washing your hands and a mask is useless...are you listening @Zhong Lu ?😅😂

[Zhong Lu + 845]

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Sounds an awful lot like gambling to me, and I’d be willing to bet, just as addictive.

Absolutely it's gambling.  And yes, it is just as addictive.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying, or has their head stuck up their ass.  All stock market trading/investing is gambling.  You buy XOM or CHK and hold it? You're gambling with your money, even if you don't realize it at the time. Only issue is this: are you smart about it or not? And the only way to tell is long term results.  

So yeah.  You're completely right.  The majority of traders are outperformed by a dude who makes his decisions by flipping a coin.  Heck, I'm even beating the S&P.  What you may not realize is that flipping a coin to make decisions on the stock market is "value neutral."  Your expected performance mathematically- assuming you stay with highly liquid, large/mid caps and ETFs- will match the S&P's.  And as long as you stay away from the really nasty drops like the one that's happening right now, you'll outperform over time.

Also, posts from different people isn't going to work "Douglas Buckland" or whatever you call yourself.  You're probably running multiple accounts.  I've suspected it from day one and the post behavior is confirming it.  So let's be polite about it and keep up the charade and pretend you're different people.  No need to get mean.  Posting on the internet can get pretty addictive, too, you know, so frankly you're not in a position to judge others.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Well I'm no expect but for anyone with money this is a golden time to double your money in a year...at least

I've seen it before and everytime I've been up layed off and poor, although I had friends that bet everything and borrowed to invest....would be interesting to get in touch and find out if they made millions lol

Truthfully, we should mortgage our paid for house and invest in the safe S&P. We are comfortable now though as we divested all a couple of years ago and paid it off. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

52 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Absolutely it's gambling.  And yes, it is just as addictive.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying, or has their head stuck up their ass.  All stock market trading/investing is gambling.  You buy XOM or CHK and hold it? You're gambling with your money, even if you don't realize it at the time. Only issue is this: are you smart about it or not? And the only way to tell is long term results.  

So yeah.  You're completely right.  The majority of traders are outperformed by a dude who makes his decisions by flipping a coin.  What you may not realize is that flipping a coin to make decisions on the stock market is "value neutral."  Your expected performance mathematically- assuming you stay with highly liquid, large/mid caps and ETFs- will match the S&P's.  And as long as you stay away from the really nasty drops like the one that's happening right now, you'll outperform over time.

Also, posts from different people isn't going to work "Douglas Buckland" or whatever you call yourself.  You're probably running multiple accounts.  I've suspected it from day one and the post behavior is confirming it.  So let's be polite about it and keep up the charade and pretend you're different people.  No need to get mean.  Posting on the internet can get pretty addictive, too, you know.

I love the internet though. To me it is like fishing for bluegills. It doesn't pay much but it is rewarding. Nothing to lose but my time, no money worries. Just avoid the F.I.B.. oh, I meant the F.B.I.!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I really think this has been used by media in a very reckless way. They are not looking at this virus in a real context versus SARS and the average influenza or flu. 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/mit-biologist-and-inventer-of-email-dr-shiva-ayyadurai-says-deep-state-fear-mongering-on-coronavirus-will-go-down-as-biggest-fraud-to-manipulate-economies/

[El Nikko + 2,145]

14 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I really think this has been used by media in a very reckless way. They are not looking at this virus in a real context versus SARS and the average influenza or flu. 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/mit-biologist-and-inventer-of-email-dr-shiva-ayyadurai-says-deep-state-fear-mongering-on-coronavirus-will-go-down-as-biggest-fraud-to-manipulate-economies/

When the media act in concert I'm always suspicious

[Zhong Lu + 845]

16 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

When the media act in concert I'm always suspicious

Yes and no.  You need to expand on this.  Technically you're wrong because the media isn't a single entity.  You can claim it's a conspiracy. But even if you're correct, the point is that if it's this effective I'd rather go along with it for my own personal financial well being.  And you should, too.

What I'm more curious about is large scale population behavior.  Neither the "media" nor the "markets" are persons, you know.  The "media" can't do anything because it's really not a thing. People act.  Collections of people do not.  Birds fly.  Flocks do not.  My questions are these: Why are are the markets/media moving like a school of fish? Neurologically, on an individual level what triggers this herd behavior? On an individual level, why are most individuals making the same decision (in the case of the markets the decision is to sell)?

Edited March 12, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

Yes and no.  You need to expand on this.  Technically you're wrong because the media isn't a single entity.  You can claim it's a conspiracy. But even if you're correct, the point is that if it's this effective I'd rather go along with it for my own personal financial well being.  And you should, too.

What I'm more curious about is large scale population behavior.  Neither the "media" nor the "markets" are persons, you know.  The "media" can't do anything because it's really not a thing. People act.  Collections of people do not.  Birds fly.  Flocks do not.  My questions are these: Why are are the markets/media moving like a school of fish? Neurologically, on an individual level what triggers this herd behavior? On an individual level, why are most individuals making the same decision (in the case of the markets the decision is to sell)?

There are real component and crowd behaviors. 

In this case, you follow technicals for emotional signs of market participant behaviors. But make your positions due to fundamental conditions. 

The other shortest range indicators other than technicals are liquidity and volatility hedges. Most important are money markets (seen as bid ask spreads rising with iliquidity and contracting with returning liquidity) and bond markets (MOVE index) volatility and issuance volumes. 

There should be no question that this is a financial crisis more than it is a health crisis. The Fed has been waiting for the economic numbers to guide it while  the money markets were falling apart for months due to a heavy liquidity draw from China banks and their Eurodollar counterparts, and as the demand for dollar liquidity and credit expanded from Europe and now internally in the US as everyone needs cash to tide them over the gap and gradual recovery going forward. The Fed's expectation that there is some psychology involved is a ludicrous proposition. People are not responding to their announcements and poses because they NEED to raise cash, not because they are fearing losses. 

The economy affects everyone, so as we search for signs and measures of what the economy looks like going forward, all of us are making our estimates and they vary substantially as the disease and the reactions to it take hold. 

There is need for a deep financial intervention to support liquidity and allow banks to plunge ahead with huge credit expansion for weakened businesses and individuals with monetary backing from the Fed and/or the Treasury or Commerce. Interest rates are not particularly relevant once you go below 1%. 

The world is needing a month of credit expansion to fill in suspended economic activity of 25% of GDP and later additional amounts as economic activity recovers. After or during this period the affected businesses will have capital raising needs to beef up their much damaged balance sheets. Particularly travel and hospitality that are routinely highly leveraged. 

Just saw a headline on Fed offer of $5 Trillion of liquidity facilities. Hope it is true. The dollar's sharp rise in recent days is a powerful indicator of Eurodollar liquidity problems. 

Volatility wise, we are at capitulation levels as of this morning with the VIX over 70. 

The slide down at the close is indicating that barring a surprise policy move out of the Fed or Washington, there will be a fall tomorrow at the open followed by a rebound. It is looking like the next downwards impulse is the last one before a head shearing rebound. Beyond that, we will have to see. 

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?spy

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?SPY:tlt

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?XLE:$wtic

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Looking for a bounce (signal is futures flipping red to green- hasn't happened yet but I'm anticipating it, as futures are barely red).  Market's a bit oversold right now.  Safer to buy in now then the day after the bounce.  

 After that, who knows.  But this is an opportunity.  

[George8944 + 128]

It seems like that, but despite my baby-like face, this is my fourth crash.  If your more that 10 years from needing the money, just ride it out.   I hope to retire in 3 to 5 years.  This adjustment is the best news I’ve had in a long time.  My real wish was dashed when the FED started QE5 today.   So, so sad.  There goes price discovery and the creative and capital destruction that is so critical to a properly functioning free enterprise system.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

10 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Absolutely it's gambling.  And yes, it is just as addictive.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying, or has their head stuck up their ass.  All stock market trading/investing is gambling.  You buy XOM or CHK and hold it? You're gambling with your money, even if you don't realize it at the time. Only issue is this: are you smart about it or not? And the only way to tell is long term results.  

So yeah.  You're completely right.  The majority of traders are outperformed by a dude who makes his decisions by flipping a coin.  Heck, I'm even beating the S&P.  What you may not realize is that flipping a coin to make decisions on the stock market is "value neutral."  Your expected performance mathematically- assuming you stay with highly liquid, large/mid caps and ETFs- will match the S&P's.  And as long as you stay away from the really nasty drops like the one that's happening right now, you'll outperform over time.

Also, posts from different people isn't going to work "Douglas Buckland" or whatever you call yourself.  You're probably running multiple accounts.  I've suspected it from day one and the post behavior is confirming it.  So let's be polite about it and keep up the charade and pretend you're different people.  No need to get mean.  Posting on the internet can get pretty addictive, too, you know, so frankly you're not in a position to judge others.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Hold on a minute! I was not making a judgement in the least and apologize profusely if you took it that way. I was merely making an observation about a business/profession which I know little about.

I in no way intended my posts to insinuate that you (Zhong) had a gambling problem or an addiction! As I stated, if my posts have somehow annoyed you, believe me when I say that this was not my intent.

Furthermore, I ONLY post on one account, which is under my full name. The moderators should be able to confirm this.

Zhong, I did not mean to belittle you in the least!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/12/2020 at 1:47 PM, Zhong Lu said:

Yes and no.  You need to expand on this.  Technically you're wrong because the media isn't a single entity.  You can claim it's a conspiracy. But even if you're correct, the point is that if it's this effective I'd rather go along with it for my own personal financial well being.  And you should, too.

What I'm more curious about is large scale population behavior.  Neither the "media" nor the "markets" are persons, you know.  The "media" can't do anything because it's really not a thing. People act.  Collections of people do not.  Birds fly.  Flocks do not.  My questions are these: Why are are the markets/media moving like a school of fish? Neurologically, on an individual level what triggers this herd behavior? On an individual level, why are most individuals making the same decision (in the case of the markets the decision is to sell)?

Shoot a small gun and a few in the herd move. Shoot a cannon and they all move. We are not cattle, but many people react like cattle or sheep. One small dog can herd sheep. They bark and nip. 

If the herd were to turn on the nipper or the cannon firer it could overwhelm them. The herd needs to be educated.

Edited March 19, 2020 by ronwagn
error

[canadas canadas + 136]

This may be good for those that have cash waiting on the side for such an opportunity.  However, it would be hard to know when to exactly jump in due to volatility.  For those getting burned and out at a loss, it makes them not want to jump in again too soon.