Rip. S&P.

[George8944 + 128]

On 3/12/2020 at 2:47 PM, Zhong Lu said:

People act.  Collections of people do not.  Birds fly.  Flocks do not.  My questions are these: Why are are the markets/media moving like a school of fish? Neurologically, on an individual level what triggers this herd behavior? On an individual level, why are most individuals making the same decision (in the case of the markets the decision is to sell)?

Much has been written on herd mentality.  In a nutshell, what happens is the exact opposite of your first two sentences.  People may not act while alone, but in a large collection they can and do abomidable things.  It's why crowds can errupt into a riot, yet each individual is probably a nice person.  I recommend books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.  He wrote one of the original books on Black Swan events and followed on with articles and a book on herd actions.   I also liked his book, "Fooled by Randomness" but it's not light reading...well it wasn't for me.

Having lived most my career in Sales and Marketing,  I am facsincated by how humans act and interact.   Herd mentality is one of our dark sides.  

I'll leave you with a thought.   Would the stock market drop if nobody (I'm using "nobody" in the broadest possible way.)  sold their shares?

[Boat + 1,323]

On 3/17/2020 at 12:19 PM, ronwagn said:

Shoot a small gun and a few in the heard move. Shoot a cannon and they all move. We are not cattle, but many people react like cattle or sheep. One small dog can herd sheep. They bark and nip. 

If the herd were to turn on the nipper or the cannon firer it could overwhelm them. The herd needs to be educated.

Maybe in this case the world just wants to save as many people over 70 as possible. The rest of  the population doesn’t need that much to fear. I don’t think education changes the choice of economic disruption or let the old get weeded out. 
This is basically the argument about climate change. Do we continue business as usual or pay for disruption now to save larger disruptions later.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 3/12/2020 at 12:22 AM, El Nikko said:

Well I'm no expect but for anyone with money this is a golden time to double your money in a year...at least

I've seen it before and everytime I've been up layed off and poor, although I had friends that bet everything and borrowed to invest....would be interesting to get in touch and find out if they made millions lol

Using the o’l dollar cost averaging with a couple of mutual funds strategy. Over 40 years it has worked well. A ten year window is still open unless the virus gets me. For now you get more shares for the dollar. Over a lifetime there are many ups and downs. This is just another.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/18/2020 at 2:00 AM, canadas canadas said:

This may be good for those that have cash waiting on the side for such an opportunity.  However, it would be hard to know when to exactly jump in due to volatility.  For those getting burned and out at a loss, it makes them not want to jump in again too soon.

What ever happened to the old ‘once bitten, twice shy’ or ‘fool me once, blame on you. Fool me twice, blame on me’ mentalities?

Sounds like greed or an addiction to be. If you are making rational decisions, based on solid data, and you get burned...that is simply the risk that you were willing to take.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

40 minutes ago, Boat said:

Maybe in this case the world just wants to save as many people over 70 as possible. The rest of  the population doesn’t need that much to fear. I don’t think education changes the choice of economic disruption or let the old get weeded out. 
This is basically the argument about climate change. Do we continue business as usual or pay for disruption now to save larger disruptions later.

You make a good point. My take on it is that it is much easier to adapt to climate change. There has always been climate change. When has it not changed. Never. We are not going to change it much one way or the other. I promote natural gas to lessen pollution but it is also the best way to cut CO2 and actual pollutants. It is also very inexpensive and very abundant. Wind and solar have too many downsides for me appearance, waste material to dispose of as they wear out, polluting elements to dispose of, space required, small amount of energy produced by comparison to natural gas, more expensive, depend on the right weather, etc. 

Mankind has always successfully adapted to weather changes. We are certainly more able to do that now with all the technology that we have.

IMHO we are going through an economic disruption far larger than it should be. The reason is that we have been herded by a communications industry that thrives on calamity and negative headlines. The public has been scared to death from a disease that will end up possibly having killed fewer people than the common flu that most people don't even bother to get vaccinations for. The economic disruption will end up harming more people than the coronavirus. If China had communicated the truth from the beginning the damage would be far less. We must learn to set up supply chains with other countries so that we are never dependent on China as our only source for anything. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by ronwagn

[Boat + 1,323]

The virus that swept China was well known by the world back in January.Taiwan for example of a poster country that was prepared  and minimized its affects. Go google.

We know about future climate challenges and many countries have begun preparing. Eventually you won’t be able to get government help for insurance in flood zones near the hard hit areas on the coasts for example. Then the mass exodus begins.

Some think responses are over reacting and some think responses are anemic. But massive disruption is on the way and can’t be stopped. Only managed in crude ways by each country.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 hours ago, George8944 said:

Much has been written on herd mentality.  In a nutshell, what happens is the exact opposite of your first two sentences.  People may not act while alone, but in a large collection they can and do abomidable things.  It's why crowds can errupt into a riot, yet each individual is probably a nice person.  I recommend books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.  He wrote one of the original books on Black Swan events and followed on with articles and a book on herd actions.   I also liked his book, "Fooled by Randomness" but it's not light reading...well it wasn't for me.

Having lived most my career in Sales and Marketing,  I am facsincated by how humans act and interact.   Herd mentality is one of our dark sides.  

I'll leave you with a thought.   Would the stock market drop if nobody (I'm using "nobody" in the broadest possible way.)  sold their shares?

Social psych is interesting, combine that info with knowledge of behaviourism / conditioning and you can do evil things.  Advertising and casinos etc. hire these people to manipulate the public on grand scales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_responsibility

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behaviorism

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/17/2020 at 1:00 PM, canadas canadas said:

This may be good for those that have cash waiting on the side for such an opportunity.  However, it would be hard to know when to exactly jump in due to volatility.  For those getting burned and out at a loss, it makes them not want to jump in again too soon.

My advice is to pay off your mortgage and your cars etc. but keep plenty of cash. Some real cash because money in banks might not be available due to EMP etc. 

I would also keep plenty of food and water. The food should be staples like water, pasta, flour, sugar, cooking oil, peanut butter, oatmeal, hard crackers like rye krisp, cornmeal, corn, rice, beans, spices, tea, coffee, vitamin pills, medications, batteries, paper supplies, emergency medical items, propane, gasoline, firewood, guns and ammo, etc. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Great list, Ron. Just not enough protein. In an endurance war, protein always wins. So, even if you're a non-meat-eater, freeze some hotdogs, turkey, shrimp, salmon cakes. And stock your pantry with tins of sardines. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/12/2020 at 1:47 PM, Zhong Lu said:

Yes and no.  You need to expand on this.  Technically you're wrong because the media isn't a single entity.  You can claim it's a conspiracy. But even if you're correct, the point is that if it's this effective I'd rather go along with it for my own personal financial well being.  And you should, too.

What I'm more curious about is large scale population behavior.  Neither the "media" nor the "markets" are persons, you know.  The "media" can't do anything because it's really not a thing. People act.  Collections of people do not.  Birds fly.  Flocks do not.  My questions are these: Why are are the markets/media moving like a school of fish? Neurologically, on an individual level what triggers this herd behavior? On an individual level, why are most individuals making the same decision (in the case of the markets the decision is to sell)?

The mainstream media normally act in concert. Those who monitor them can see the same phrases used by all of them. The Associated Press service is often the source, but they also have blogs that are only available to members that set the agenda. The Demoncrat party is another source, with its talking points as are deep state leakers. 

Please see https://www.mrc.org/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

Great list, Ron. Just not enough protein. In an endurance war, protein always wins. So, even if you're a non-meat-eater, freeze some hotdogs, turkey, shrimp, salmon cakes. And stock your pantry with tins of sardines. 

Sorry Gerry, rice and beans or pasta and beans or bread and peanut butter etc. are all complete protein meals. The book Diet for a Small Planet is the best source IMO. Meat is great if you know how to can it or want to buy it! So is canned tuna or poultry. It is not a necessity and costs more but it  is a great addition and adds taste so I should have included it. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by ronwagn
error

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Sorry Gerry, rice and beans or pasta and beans or bread and peanut butter etc. are all complete protein meals. The book Diet for a Small Planet is the best source IMO. Meat is great if you know how to can it or want to buy it! So is canned tuna or poultry. It is not a necessity and costs more but it  is a great addition and adds taste so I should have included it. 

80% of us are already in some stage of metabolic disorder by the time we are 40. We can't handle any amount of carbs past that age unless we remain very physically active. So no sugar at all, no rice no beans no cornmeal no grain period and no beans. Peanut butter is great. That is kid's food. Kids and young adults can do it. The rest of us sedentary middle aged folks can not survive it. "Diet for a small planet" is deadly to an older demographic. If you wonder why goat herders would routinely come off the mountains and wipe out advanced agricultural empires it is because they were eating meats and dairy while the densely populated plains were eating grains and adults died young. While the goat herder's had a high childhood mortality, adults survived longer.  We also forget that the way we consumed grains was to make them into beer to obtain the vitamins and proteins that the yeasts create in fermentation. 

So unless you are feeding kids and physical laborers, you should have canned meats and fish and vegetables and plenty of saturated fats for cooking, coconut, grapeseed, avocado oils, lard. Olive oil is also good for both cooking and cold use. Vegetable oils (canola, sunflowier, corn) are only for cold use. Do not cook with them. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 hours ago, ronwagn said:

You make a good point. My take on it is that it is much easier to adapt to climate change. There has always been climate change. When has it not changed. Never. We are not going to change it much one way or the other. I promote natural gas to lessen pollution but it is also the best way to cut CO2 and actual pollutants. It is also very inexpensive and very abundant. Wind and solar have too many downsides for me appearance, waste material to dispose of as they wear out, polluting elements to dispose of, space required, small amount of energy produced by comparison to natural gas, more expensive, depend on the right weather, etc. 

Mankind has always successfully adapted to weather changes. We are certainly more able to do that now with all the technology that we have.

IMHO we are going through an economic disruption far larger than it should be. The reason is that we have been herded by a communications industry that thrives on calamity and negative headlines. The public has been scared to death from a disease that will end up possibly having killed fewer people than the common flu that most people don't even bother to get vaccinations for. The economic disruption will end up harming more people than the coronavirus. If China had communicated the truth from the beginning the damage would be far less. We must learn to set up supply chains with other countries so that we are never dependent on China as our only source for anything. 

We don't have stats from Wuhan that are worth spitting at. And the Chinese authorities are going through health records to scrub them of any trace of what happened. 

So we can look at Italy and what happened there when the Milan hospitals got overwhelmed. The patients in serious condition were no longer surviving at the same rates. Mortality went up from under 2% of serious or critical condition to above 5%. 

Not only that, but low risk demographics had such broad distribution of the virus that many cases of serious condition patients from the low risk pool had shown up, some died. 

This spring break season will have thoroughly spread the virus throughout the student generation after having thoroughly saturated the urban school children. Obviously, parents will have already been exposed. So the important thing to do is apply antibody tests broadly to check on the extent of virus penetration into the general population. 

What we are doing now can very well be so far too late that it makes little difference. Chinese stats show 78% of the spread being within households. So if you are in an Urban environment of high density (NYC is 41k/sq mile, Other big cities are 20-25k, Columbus OH is 3.6k. Suburbia is 1k, exurbia is less than half of that) the main points of contact are schools and retail locations and workplaces. In cities it is stairwells and elevators as well as door knobs and dense public transportation. Public transport is useless in spread out cities and suburbia, not to speak of exurbia.  

Policy targets are to suppress the propagation curve in order to slow the rate of serious cases so that the health system does not get overwhelmed. Not to squelch the spread entirely the way China had attempted to do, including nearly starving Wuhan. That will not happen without total shutdown. That is an entirely useless idea that is far more dangerous and deadly than the virus itself. 

While I entirely reject the Nazi NYC San Fran, Hoboken Fremont county etc. government total shutdown demands as (1) illegal, (2) useless, I do see that many production lines are producing for inventory, as much of their sales have dropped dead. The (much gussied up) China example shows a drop of 20%+ of demand relative to a 13% drop in production, and a 25% drop in investment demand. Meaning that 9-10% of the economy is producing for inventory. In a consumption led economy the discrepancy would be higher - like 15% or so. Just that much of the demand eliminated is for Chinese sourced imports. Which will dampen Chinese recovery later this spring. Teslas are still selling apace with no real dealer physical contact and the factory is easily sanitized and spread out. 

I think the Federal government should challenge the authority of local governments to direct lockdowns and chose what "essential" work or production is. And eliminate the means to enforce them. Individuals ans civil rights groups should be definitely pursuing this in court. 

 

Perhaps it is time to build another two hospital ships for the Navy. Really the only way to tackle dense coastal cities in case of pandemics or other high patient volume events. . 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

80% of us are already in some stage of metabolic disorder by the time we are 40. We can't handle any amount of carbs past that age unless we remain very physically active. So no sugar at all, no rice no beans no cornmeal no grain period and no beans. Peanut butter is great. That is kid's food. Kids and young adults can do it. The rest of us sedentary middle aged folks can not survive it. "Diet for a small planet" is deadly to an older demographic. If you wonder why goat herders would routinely come off the mountains and wipe out advanced agricultural empires it is because they were eating meats and dairy while the densely populated plains were eating grains and adults died young. While the goat herder's had a high childhood mortality, adults survived longer.  We also forget that the way we consumed grains was to make them into beer to obtain the vitamins and proteins that the yeasts create in fermentation. 

So unless you are feeding kids and physical laborers, you should have canned meats and fish and vegetables and plenty of saturated fats for cooking, coconut, grapeseed, avocado oils, lard. Olive oil is also good for both cooking and cold use. Vegetable oils (canola, sunflowier, corn) are only for cold use. Do not cook with them. 

I have had great success with intermittent fasting. I basically eat very little until 4 PM and then have a moderate and nutritious meal. I eat very little the rest of the evening. It is the best system I have found to maintain a healthy weight. 

I like your ideas and eat plenty of meat, I just don't think it is essential. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The mainstream media normally act in concert. Those who monitor them can see the same phrases used by all of them. The Associated Press service is often the source, but they also have blogs that are only available to members that set the agenda. The Demoncrat party is another source, with its talking points as are deep state leakers. 

Please see https://www.mrc.org/

Yes they're acting in concert, but you're talking about them as if they have some sort of ulterior goal like they have a plan to act in concert.  I don't agree with that.  That's like saying "the market is planning to go up" or "the market is planning to do X."  The market doesn't plan anything because the market isn't a person.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Yes they're acting in concert, but you're talking about them as if they have some sort of ulterior goal like they have a plan to act in concert.  I don't agree with that.  That's like saying "the market is planning to go up" or "the market is planning to do X."  The market doesn't plan anything because the market isn't a person.  

You are entitled to your opinion, mine is that they have a plan to do everything possible to get rid of President Trump even if it destroys our economy. That is just how crazed I think they are. 

Please see https://www.mrc.org/