Why flattening the curve is so important, in CV and oil production

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Flattening the curve saves lives. Not so much because less total population will catch the disease, they won't. The difference is how fast the disease spreads.

 

 

Now, let us look at that same graph and change the labels from cases to barrels. If we imagine that the steep curve referred to LTO production, all front end loaded and quickly petering out, versus the low peak, long tail that's in green, think what would happen for pricing, production and demand balance if shale producers had the discipline (and freedom from bank covenants) to play the long game like that? If we do our simple calculus, the volume under those two colored curves is the same. Slow and steady wins the race, which isn't supposed to be a race anyway. 

[Justin Hicks + 162]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Flattening the curve saves lives. Not so much because less total population will catch the disease, they won't. The difference is how fast the disease spreads.

 

 

Now, let us look at that same graph and change the labels from cases to barrels. If we imagine that the steep curve referred to LTO production, all front end loaded and quickly petering out, versus the low peak, long tail that's in green, think what would happen for pricing, production and demand balance if shale producers had the discipline (and freedom from bank covenants) to play the long game like that? If we do our simple calculus, the volume under those two colored curves is the same. Slow and steady wins the race, which isn't supposed to be a race anyway. 

Ever heard of a shale producer having restraint or playing with his own money 😂😂