Covid-19 exponential growth

[J.mo + 165]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up.amp

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

3 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Lets hope the boffins have a vaccine in place to fight the second wave if indeed we get one.

Deaths in the UK have fallen from 260 on Saturday, 209 Sunday and today 180, there is cause to be optimistic, and we're told we are 10-14 days away from the peak.

Its still a highly infectious nasty virus but its not the killer Ebola or MERS is IMO.

Time will tell I guess

You can colour me surprised that the death number has dropped two days straight. I saw that Imperial College believes that with the current measures the UK will have 20,000 dead. I'm not sure the timeframe on that, summer or next spring. Let's hope the numbers aren't just a data glitch.

 

[TooSteep + 142]

15 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

...Future generations will need arable land, fresh water and climate that is actually survivable by human civilization...

[The PRC] has almost 20 percent (18.4 percent) of the world’s population, and yet only seven percent of its water, and of that water some 25 percent, at least [as the PRC Government acknowledges], is polluted, along with much of its agricultural water table [to a far greater degree than the PRC Govt. acknowledges]. And the problem is getting worse. The great water source, the aquifers flowing from the melting snows of the Tien Shan Mountain range in Central Asia, is reducing for the moment.

The result of this, and the fact that Chinese agriculture has not modernized to any great degree, is that the People’s Republic of China is perhaps more strategically dependent on imported food than any great power since Rome. And Rome, arguably, collapsed, finally, for that very reason: its foreign sources of food became less dependable. The PRC Bureau of Statistics in the 1980s recorded that there were some 50,000 rivers in mainland China. But by 2017, there were only some 23,000. Beijing, serviced by the so-called “Three Gorges Dam”, recorded in 2017 that 39.9 percent of its water was so polluted as to be unusable. Tianjin, a principal port city of the north (and with a population of 15-million), had only 4.9 percent of its water in a potable state.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Shadow-War-Playing-Out-Behind-The-COVID-19-Crisis.html
 

[tariq waseem 0]

This virus seems to affect rich economies disproportionately, India, mexico, Africa are largely unscathed. There are so many unknowns, crediting simple human efforts at containment is premature. Our reaction to pandemic is vastly disproportionate and paradoxically all due to our advanced knowledge of genetics and other sciences.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

19 minutes ago, tariq waseem said:

This virus seems to affect rich economies disproportionately, India, mexico, Africa are largely unscathed. There are so many unknowns, crediting simple human efforts at containment is premature. Our reaction to pandemic is vastly disproportionate and paradoxically all due to our advanced knowledge of genetics and other sciences.

Temperature is probably a factor, flu type viruses don't survive well in warm and humid conditions which is why they die out in the summer months in the Northern hemisphere. There is far less testing going on in poorer countries. As the vast majority of deaths are in the old and sick, medical staff on poorer countries people are less likely/able to investigate whether someone close to death has caught it and died. Rich economies can afford to try to keep their elderly and sick alive as long as possible..I wish it were the case for all countries.

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by El Nikko

[REAL Green + 65]

“Chinese Biological Experiments To Infect Humans With Coronavirus Exposed In 2015 By Italian State Media”

Authored by Guido Taietti via GreatGameIndia.com (site not accessible probably from Chinese interference)

https://tinyurl.com/w3g6tw8     zero hedge

 

“Five years ago, Italian state owned media Company, Rai – Radiotelevisione Italiana, exposed dark efforts by China on viruses. The video, which was broadcast in November, 2015, showed how Chinese scientists were doing biological experiments on a SARS connected virus believed to be Coronavirus, derived from bats and mice, asking whether it was worth the risk in order to be able to modify the virus for compatibility with human organisms…Chinese Biological Experiments     Chinese scientists have created a pulmonary supervirus from bats and mice only for study reasons but there are many questionable aspects to this. Is it worth the risk? It’s an experiment, of course, but it is worrisome. It worries many scientists: It is a group of Chinese researchers attaching a protein taken from bats to the SARS virus, Acute Pneumonia, derived from mice. The output is a super coronavirus that could affect man. It remains closed in laboratories and it is only for study purposes, but is it worth the risk – creating such a great threat only for examination purposes?  The debate about the risks of research is as old as science itself. Like the myth of Icarus, who plunged from the Sky and perished in the sea, having gone too close to the Sun with the wings of wax designed by his father!... Here is an experiment in China, in which a group of scientists has managed to develop a chimera – an organism modified by attaching the surface protein of a coronavirus found in bats of the common species called the Great Horseshoe Bat, to a virus that causes SARS in mice, although in a non-fatal form. It was suspected that the protein could make the chimeric hybrid organism suitable for affecting humans, and the experiment confirmed it.  It is precisely this molecule, called SHCO14, that allows the coronavirus to attach itself to our respiratory cells and to trigger the syndrome. According to researchers, the two organisms, the original and even more so the engineered one, can infect humans directly from bats, without going through an intermediate species like the mouse, and it is this eventuality that raises many controversies…As soon that this broadcast went viral on the Italian social media, journalists and experts began explaining it away saying, that the virus in the video was not COVID-19. Even the British journal Nature, which wrote the very publication this Italian show was based on, clarified that the virus the broadcast talked about was not related to the “Natural” COVID-19.  However, that is beside the point. This is not to say that the viruses are literally the same. This is to say that the information presented in the video is consistent with the information that China is doing a lot of research on bioweapons, and that the impact of the virus in the broadcast has a lot in common with mainstream information about the symptoms of COVID-19…Meanwhile, the Italian scientists at Milan University are investigating whether the coronavirus outbreak actually began in Italy in the last quarter of 2019. Milan and Lodi cities of Lombardy administrative region reported a “significant” increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in October and December of 2019. Meanwhile, amidst worldwide criticism, a $20 trillion lawsuit has been filed against China for waging Biological war using Coronavirus.”

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

The best way to know about who suffers the most from the virus is to listen to the doctors who actually treats the severe cases. 

And the doctors confirm the following - the comborbidities that increase the chance that you will have the bad, severe case of the disease are:

• Hypertension
• Diabetes
• Obesity
• Cardiovascular diseases
• Smoking
• Chronic lung diseases

If you are fat, you are short of breath after walking even for a short distance, if you have sleep apnoa, you are in trouble. Which is precisely the reason why the most severe cases in asia are old people 60+ who often smoke, but otherwise most of the population is relatively fit, but in New York the severe cases start in 20-54 years category. 

If you have good, healthy lungs with spare capacity, your chances improve drastically, because the virus triggers the immunosuppressive system in your lungs and the battle between it and the virus is what destroys your lung air sacs. An obese person needs much more oxygen to oxygenate all that body mass, that's why his heart is under such a heavy load his whole life and gives away earlier than in healthy people. The virus is an extra load your system must suddenly carry - if you are already on the limit, your chances are bad. When your damaged lungs fail to send enough oxygen down the bloodstream, your organs will start failing - liver, kidneys, and that's what kills you. 

It's a nasty, ugly death, similar to drowning or suffocating - that's what people should realize before they start urging people to "go back to work, come on, it's just a little flu, take it like a man!". It's disgusting. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

16 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

You can colour me surprised that the death number has dropped two days straight. I saw that Imperial College believes that with the current measures the UK will have 20,000 dead. I'm not sure the timeframe on that, summer or next spring. Let's hope the numbers aren't just a data glitch.

 

I'm not and wouldn't be surprised if they started digging up corpses to fudge the numbers. I think our medical services are very good even though I have a lot of crirism of them and how the NHS is run.

[TooSteep + 142]

On 3/30/2020 at 7:28 AM, Anthony Okrongly said:

I'm ready to turn the corner on this thing and get more optimistic.

The worst fear mongers were saying that 2% of the population would die. That is 20,000 deaths per million people.

The worst place - Italy - is now at 192 deaths per million. That is 1/100 of the rate predicted, even in the most apocalyptic outbreak.

That heat map is interesting. If Buenos Aires becomes the worst place in South America, you know you will be on to something.

Also - if the heat map ends up being accurate, does it mean that the majority of transmission is via airborne particulates that we breathe in? If so, simple masks for all makes a lot of sense - to prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading it outward.

 

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

15 hours ago, TooSteep said:

Also - if the heat map ends up being accurate, does it mean that the majority of transmission is via airborne particulates that we breathe in? 

 

Unfortunately, it does not. It has been proven that the virus can survive on various surfaces for several days, so if an infected person say touches a handle of a door, then you touch that handle, then your face, you can get infected this way. That's why washing your hands is very important. The virus has survived for 17 days on the ship Diamond Princess that was previously quarantined with infected people - 17 days AFTER the ship was finally abandoned. 

Also - correlation does not mean causality. The fact that the most infected cities fall into the temperate climate is no wonder - temperate climate is historically home of the richest nations, because it's best for agriculture and have optimal living conditions. Therefore, these countries has richest populace today that travels the most, and also most advanced infrastructure for air travel. The disease will, however, eventually hit even the remote areas, since nobody is an island today, it will just take longer. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Yoshiro Kamamura

[Jesus Alberto Galarza 0]

On 3/22/2020 at 5:50 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Really, at this point, who cares? The virus is out there, governments are doing what they can, information is being shared, and labs are working towards a vaccine.

I’m in lockdown. I couldn’t care less about graphs or curves at this point.

Who???

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 3/22/2020 at 7:46 PM, Ward Smith said:

From the Medium article. Highly speculative and as I live in the US there are many no's that should say yes. Why not? Oh because the authors think the USA is like teeny tiny Singapore and should be treated as one big monolith. In point of fact, Washington, California and New York to name a few have instituted the serious measures. Podunk, Iowa has not, because no one is infected there. The universities are all closed, the NCAA tourney is cancelled along with every other major crowd event. But we're 50 states with 50 different ways to do things. 

Urban folks run a lot of states and they do not understand rural areas at all. They just want everyone under their thumb because they think they are of superior education and intellect. Yet they are too stupid to give recognition to those who live in rural areas and suburbs that are not densely packed. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.independentsentinel.com/doctors-who-use-hydroxychloroquine-say-its-the-best-hope-for-treatment-of-the-virus/

[stevenwibowo 0]

On 3/31/2020 at 10:52 AM, tariq waseem said:

This virus seems to affect rich economies disproportionately, India, mexico, Africa are largely unscathed. There are so many unknowns, crediting simple human efforts at containment is premature. Our reaction to pandemic is vastly disproportionate and paradoxically all due to our advanced knowledge of genetics and other sciences.

This is my opinion since I am from those emerging economies.

 

1.) Testings are different, korea testings (nose swabs) tests for people who has the virus that are still incubating/positive, In Indonesia, the rapid test kits are antibody test kits which tests for people who are positive(currently sick) & those who have recovered. The rapid test kits have very limited accuracy for those who have the virus but are still in the incubating period. Hence in my opinion there are a difference in the reported number (Most rich economies reporting incubating/currently sick and emerging economies reporting currently sick/Recovered).

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/20/govt-says-rapid-covid-19-testing-kits-can-return-results-in-two-minutes.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-test-uk-antibody-public-health-england-covid-19-downing-street-a9443266.html

2.) The number of tests that are done. In indonesia, prior to the rapid test used PCR test to test suspected patients, tested approximately about 2,500 people and had approximately between 400-450 people positive. That for me is alarming. With the rapid tests (antibody test), they have implemented a drive through test, we can see a mixture of people who are asymptomatic/sick and the result shows that about 1-2% of the tested is positive (Currently sick/Recovered).

https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20200321154853-4-146664/tambah-81-orang-pasien-positif-corona-ri-jadi-450-orang

*couldn't find the tested data, it has been buried by a lot of new news.

Overall, I wouldn't trust the data from the emerging markets. Many manipulates the data because these countries can't afford a pandemic or social unrest (been deficit spending much?).

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 4/1/2020 at 3:57 AM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Unfortunately, it does not. It has been proven that the virus can survive on various surfaces for several days, so if an infected person say touches a handle of a door, then you touch that handle, then your face, you can get infected this way. That's why washing your hands is very important. The virus has survived for 17 days on the ship Diamond Princess that was previously quarantined with infected people - 17 days AFTER the ship was finally abandoned. 

Also - correlation does not mean causality. The fact that the most infected cities fall into the temperate climate is no wonder - temperate climate is historically home of the richest nations, because it's best for agriculture and have optimal living conditions. Therefore, these countries has richest populace today that travels the most, and also most advanced infrastructure for air travel. The disease will, however, eventually hit even the remote areas, since nobody is an island today, it will just take longer. 

The big issue for transmission is population density and the use of crowded public transport and dense congregations. Those allow transmission by both aerosol and public surfaces. In the general population 40% will be asymptomatic but shed virus. Additionally, mild symptoms of sore throat and elevated fever may show up within 2-4 days, but the infected are contagious well before the initial symptoms show up. These resolve within days among the mild symptomatics, but the patient will continue being contagious for another 2-3 weeks. 

Which is why the dense metro areas are a stupid place to apply broad quarantine when most of the population has already been infected. The only people that need to be isolated are the highly susceptible high consequence population. NJ is showing 43% of tests positive, NY is at 38%. That implies the NYC metro area is testing at over 50% positive Namely Queens at 57%. Staten Island 45% King's Co. 52% Manhattan 40%, Nassau (Long Island)  45%. Bronx 51%. NJ Bergen Essex and Hudson would be in the mid 50s %  (don't provide county breakdown of testing stats just total positives). People presenting with symptoms testing negative does not mean that they didn't carry the virus in the past. The virus can be defeated in the patient to below the threshold of detection while symptoms due to lung damage continue well past the infection. We are still lacking for a broadly available antibody test to confirm past infection, as Chinese tests have a 37% failure rate and 30% false negatives and about the same % false positives  as reported by the Italian doctors. US approved testing is not yet available as it has been applied for approval only two weeks ago. 

At this point we are near enough to total infection to sequester only the high risk consequence people. The rest of the people should be back to business when they are well as there are few to infect left among them. 

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

The elevated temperature stats show a slow decline in the rate of early fever symptoms in NYC metro starting Mar. 17, with a rapid decline following that . It shows that the disease stopped spreading at a material rate on 3 14 when the city shutdown for the week of 3 16. The peak ICU threshold symptoms should be approximately at 15-16 days from the start of the decline of elevated temperature rates, Mar 19-20. So Apr 4-6 should see the topping out of hospitalizations for CV19. 

The big deal now is Miami - Palm Beach in Florida, who were stupid enough to let the spring breakers - who have a very high asymptomatic carrier rate invade the beaches and hotels, have already gotten the highest and steepest curve of fever rates recorded anywhere during the history of CV19. The onset of high rates of elevated temps starts on Mar 4 and continues at a mild growth rate to Mar 9, then speeds up steeply to peak at Mar 19-20. This means that they will have a very steep rise in confirmed cases starting Mar 22-4 and ending in early-mid April, accelerating as it approaches its peak rather than decelerating as it peaks. 

So far the infection rate in FL looks to be much lower than in NYC. Perhaps because of higher temperatures and open windows and far less reliance on public transport. They are at 11% positive tests, and implied infection rate so far of 20% of Miami-Palm Beach. If these numbers hold then we may have a solid number on the contagion behavior of the SARS COV 2 virus at moderately hot and humid climate. If it is as slow as it appears from the stats available so far, then India may be able to go back to normal life - but its shelter in place order has already resulted in 400-500 million migrants returning to their rural homelands in crowded trains assuring the spread of the disease further. Modi was a total idiot to listen to Western advice. He just maximized the chance of infecting the entire country rather than just the dense industrial cities. I think we have a Darwin award winner. Another "unintended consequence" of the shelter in place order is that young folks are returning to their family homes where the extended family often lives in multigenerational households. Thus bringing the disease to the elder generations that may have otherwise survived the outbreak unexposed. Western advice came from people imagining a home with 2-4 people and granny alone in an apartment. The US heartland is 2-4 people in a house and gran in a house on her own. India has 6 children and adults and 1-2 grandparents and occasional grand uncles or aunties. The overestimation of the spread with exurban America is only countered by the extreme understimation of the spread in India and other young countries with multigenerational living. 

We can learn from this chart also that infection rates post the Florida (national) shutdown have dropped precipitously and we have lowered flu occurrences to less than half of normal. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

17 hours ago, stevenwibowo said:

The rapid test kits have very limited accuracy for those who have the virus but are still in the incubating period. Hence in my opinion there are a difference in the reported number (Most rich economies reporting incubating/currently sick and emerging economies reporting currently sick/Recovered).

The test kits come from China and are entirely unreliable, you need to employ dozens to get a reasonable certainty of probability of infection. The Czechs rejected the entire shipments as garbage. 

Initial estimates are 37% failure, 30% false positives, 30% false negatives. Perhaps they will improve, but the numbers are useless. 

The threshold virus loading that is detectable by the Chinese test kits is so high that you can be at the fiercest stage of the disease and still not test positive. The kits are worth less than nothing unless used in the dozens per test. 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

  16 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

 there is yet to be a regional randomized sampling anywhere to determine penetration.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

He acknowledges he is speculating just as much as anyone else.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Tristan 0]

On 3/23/2020 at 12:41 AM, El Nikko said:

And then it will peak just like other virus's.

All flu kills, epidemics of it (and other diseases/virus's) overrun health services all the time especially in poorer countries.

Causing mass hysteria is counterproductive and going to change very little other than destroying the economy and ensuring most people will be poorer in the near future.

The Italian death rates seem to be skewed as people with very serious underlying health problems who also happen to catch it and then for example die of a heart attack are still added to the coronavirus death stats according to the 'specialist' quoted in an article I posted in a different topic.

Every year I try to take precautions against catching flu due to being asthmatic, if I get it and then a secondary infection I too could end up in hospital with pneumonia, I don't live in fear and I'm not now. Wash your hands, if you have serious health issues then stay away from people while the health services are under so much pressure and if you are healthy and relatively young carry on because if you get it you will just be ill for a few days. It's called being practical and realistic.

I don't mean to sound 'preachy' I'm just utterly sick of seeing the mass panic on social media much of which is being spread by people who are not at risk of serious ilness. Imagine how many old people and those with anxiety must feel to see their facebook constantly filled with fear mongering?

Whilst the severity of each case works out as u describe, and of course we dont track flu like we are now tracking Corona, the difference is that we have zero herd immunity and the hospitals ARE being overrun.  This is different from the usual Epidemics because it has hit the Western world not some tinpot country. 

The numbers are needed to ensure that govt responds to build up the heath services to be able to cope with the influx and thus reduce the 10% mortality we see in spain and italy, and higher than necessary mortality in other countries. WIth no numbers people wont appreciate the rapid rise, wont do what THEY can to slow the spread and avoid getting it.  IN the end we all will...but everyone has understood that at the initial stages the speed of the curve rise  is whats deadly.

You talk about hysteria...its not hysteria, its just focus.  The news media focusses on whatever crisis is going on until it becomes boring then moves on. 9-11 was on the news for weeks, following individuals stories and companies and so on...it went on and on and on and on and only a few thousand died...this is MUCH bigger and deadlier to life and economies.

 

 

[Tristan 0]

On 3/23/2020 at 12:41 AM, El Nikko said:

And then it will peak just like other virus's.

All flu kills, epidemics of it (and other diseases/virus's) overrun health services all the time especially in poorer countries.

Causing mass hysteria is counterproductive and going to change very little other than destroying the economy and ensuring most people will be poorer in the near future.

The Italian death rates seem to be skewed as people with very serious underlying health problems who also happen to catch it and then for example die of a heart attack are still added to the coronavirus death stats according to the 'specialist' quoted in an article I posted in a different topic.

Every year I try to take precautions against catching flu due to being asthmatic, if I get it and then a secondary infection I too could end up in hospital with pneumonia, I don't live in fear and I'm not now. Wash your hands, if you have serious health issues then stay away from people while the health services are under so much pressure and if you are healthy and relatively young carry on because if you get it you will just be ill for a few days. It's called being practical and realistic.

I don't mean to sound 'preachy' I'm just utterly sick of seeing the mass panic on social media much of which is being spread by people who are not at risk of serious ilness. Imagine how many old people and those with anxiety must feel to see their facebook constantly filled with fear mongering?

Whilst the severity of each case works out as u describe, and of course we dont track flu like we are now tracking Corona, the difference is that we have zero herd immunity and the hospitals ARE being overrun.  This is different from the usual Epidemics because it has hit the Western world not some tinpot country. 

The numbers are needed to ensure that govt responds to build up the heath services to be able to cope with the influx and thus reduce the 10% mortality we see in spain and italy, and higher than necessary mortality in other countries. WIth no numbers people wont appreciate the rapid rise, wont do what THEY can to slow the spread and avoid getting it.  IN the end we all will...but everyone has understood that at the initial stages the speed of the curve rise  is whats deadly.

You talk about hysteria...its not hysteria, its just focus.  The news media focusses on whatever crisis is going on until it becomes boring then moves on. 9-11 was on the news for weeks, following individuals stories and companies and so on...it went on and on and on and on and only a few thousand died...this is MUCH bigger and deadlier to life and economies.

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 4/1/2020 at 3:57 AM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Also - correlation does not mean causality.

agreed

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

agreed

If I eat too much cheese I have nightmares...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

If I eat too much cheese I have nightmares...

Have you tried reading a book before going to sleep?

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

agreed

On the upside, Pizza night is likely to be your last night. A better way to go....

[mad-trader + 25]

BIG  Deflection news  -  this is a better thread with conspiracy theories  -- will delete from quiet thread.

Wuhan lab was performing coronavirus experiments on bats from the caves where the disease is believed to have originated - with a £3m grant from the US

• Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on bats
• They were captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan
• Sequencing of the Covid-19 genome has traced it to bats from Yunnan's caves
• Accident at the laboratory in the Chinese city was 'no longer being discounted' 
• Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html