Covid-19 exponential growth

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

18 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Seems somewhat inconsistent to me.  

My opinions can change, based on new facts, new data, new information.

As a reminder, here was my comment back on 24th January:

Just before Chinese New Year on the 25th, it looks like the Coronavirus emanating from China is going to cause multi-form, intertwined havoc, globally. 

Health, markets, energy demand, travel plans, economy, all going to get whacked.  Starting in China already.  How hard the whacks will be remain to be seen, but whacks are already being dished out.

Lets see how far the health problems spread globally by next week, along with a resultant knockdown on all sorts of other economic and energy factors.

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

So I guess what you're saying is that it's not a good idea to blob groups of people and make big sweeping generalizations about them.  Just because certain individuals in a group have an opinion or behave in a certain way, this does not mean we can assume the entire group has that opinion or will behave in that way.  Am I correct? 

****************************************************************************

Some hospital director in Wuhan suppressed the news about the corona virus initially.  That did happen. But when the news reached the top of the CCP (i.e. not the middle management) they immediately went into action to lock the areas down.  So: is the spread of the corona virus the fault of the "Chinese government" or the fault of some shithead in Wuhan? Again, to what extent can we assign blame to the "Chinese government" because of the behavior of a few individuals? 

And this is an important question because it applies to Boeing and US administrations, too.  

EDIT: Also, as you said yourself, people can change their minds.  Might it be possible that certain members of the Chinese government initially underestimated the corona virus? After all, certain  members of the US government underestimated the corona virus initially, too.  A common theme among governments, Chinese, America, whatever, appears to be to say "all is well" as an initial response to any crisis.  

Edited March 25, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 3/22/2020 at 6:55 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

Or, we can decide to just protect the economy and just let those people die.

There is the South Korean middle ground. 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

And now, instead of wishful thinking, some science:

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200324-covid-19-how-social-distancing-can-beat-coronavirus?at_custom4=083D7DB4-6EAB-11EA-8B87-75313A982C1E&at_custom3=%40BBCRadio4&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom2=twitter&at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7

[REAL Green + 65]

9 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Some hospital director in Wuhan suppressed the news about the corona virus initially.  That did happen. But when the news reached the top of the CCP (i.e. not the middle management) they immediately went into action to lock the areas down.  So: is the spread of the corona virus the fault of the "Chinese government" or the fault of some shithead in Wuhan?

LOL, I would imagine knowing how much control the party has over every aspect of the Chinese nation, the top knew.  They lied about human to human transmission at a critical time allowing this pandemic.  That is pretty hard to deny.

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 3/23/2020 at 5:15 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Which U.S. leader would you prefer to be President right now rather than Trump, and why?

 

He's dead, but of recent presidents, I believe Bush41 was the one best equipped for this situation.  

[Qanoil + 116]

Gov dot UK.  Not reported by the general media.  

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Qanoil

[Qanoil + 116]

Is Bloomberg Behind the John Hopkins University Virus Map that Has Scared the World?

Some people have wondered who is behind the John Hopkins University map. Is there a political connection or is this just academic incompetence? I believe it clearly warrants investigation. The people behind this graphic should be hauled into the Senate under subpoena. What they have done with a misleading graphic is virtually overthrowing all human rights and every principle of liberty that so many generations have fought for and died. My family fought in every war since the American Revolution. Even Germany has been talking about declaring Emergency Powers for one year. We have others claiming the virus will last 18 months to clearly impact the 2020 elections. The threats to our liberty are far worse than an invasion by China or Russia for that matter.

The red dots of John Hopkins University are outright propaganda and deliberately misleading in my belief. They are not current but historical. They do not disappear with the virus subsiding. Look at China – they make it seem as if the entire country were infected. They are deliberately misleading and make it appear as if whole countries are infected to support stay at home and martial law. This is propaganda on a grand scale that I have never witnessed in my 50 years of experience! John Hopkins University has been promoting the collapse of democracy, justifying the suppression of all freedom and civil liberties. We have governments declaring emergency powers to end democratic processes thanks to this misleading graphic.

The Event201 Pandemic Exercise was clearly a bunch of academics who have no sense of anything outside their own field. True, if we all sequester during the winter we could beat the common cold. But they have zero understanding of civilization, no less the economy and that the worth of any currency is the total productive capacity of the people it represents. You do NOT kill the patient to declare your victory in defeating the disease. 

 

(more in the link)

[Daniel Ryslink + 19]

6 minutes ago, Qanoil said:

Gov dot UK.  Not reported by the general media.  

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

No doubt prime minister Boris dictated himself. They are really desperate. 

Meanwhile, in the streets of the real world, the epidemic is only beginning in the UK:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The curve is still in the exponential phase. The worst is yet to come. But if we rename all wolves to ducklings, perhaps they won't eat us, right?

[Zhong Lu + 845]

10 hours ago, REAL Green said:

LOL, I would imagine knowing how much control the party has over every aspect of the Chinese nation, the top knew.  They lied about human to human transmission at a critical time allowing this pandemic.  That is pretty hard to deny.

No, actually there's less control of the top over the bottom in China then in America.  The top can enact decrees, but when they're not the bottom is doing whatever it wants to. Hence the massive amount of corruption there.  Without a federalized system, there's actually less control of the bottom from the top because information gets bottlenecked up the chain of bureaucracy.  Lack of freedom of press compounds the problem.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Daniel Ryslink + 19]

8 minutes ago, Qanoil said:

The Event201 Pandemic Exercise was clearly a bunch of academics who have no sense of anything outside their own field. True, if we all sequester during the winter we could beat the common cold. But they have zero understanding of civilization, no less the economy and that the worth of any currency is the total productive capacity of the people it represents. You do NOT kill the patient to declare your victory in defeating the disease. 

 

If you don't like the letter, shoot the messenger! Way to go!

Meanwhile, people in Italy and Spain don't know where to store their dead. And it's only the beginning - you have to look on the numbers, not the graphic bells and whistles. And the numbers are clear and dire - exponential growth, unexpected deaths of seemingly healthy, young people, many unanswered questions. 

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Ryslink said:

No doubt prime minister Boris dictated himself. They are really desperate. 

Meanwhile, in the streets of the real world, the epidemic is only beginning in the UK:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The curve is still in the exponential phase. The worst is yet to come. But if we rename all wolves to ducklings, perhaps they won't eat us, right?

This is just false, people in the UK and our government are not desperate.

IMO the UK are 3-4 weeks away from the worst, so yes the figures arent great, but there is no panic on the streets. We dont have military on the streets as some countries do.

The UK death toll (43) more than halved on the previous days death toll (87) which is encouraging, however it is 1 day so we will wait to see if that is a blip, which unfortunately I think it will be.

I believe that France will be the next Spain/Italy and the USA in particular New York will follow suit.

 

[Qanoil + 116]

 

Watch out for the Chicken Littles gleefully pushing panic and doom

We are living through what may be the worst and most elemental fear human beings can experience — the fear of invasion.

And the invader isn’t a human aggressor that can be repelled with military force — but an invisible and not-exactly-alive ­viral contagion that somehow gets inside your body or the body of your loved ones and attacks from within even as it continues to spread its damage from without. This is the horror of the novel coronavirus.

For Americans especially prone to that specific fear, there is ­almost no piece of coronavirus news that doesn’t trigger a renewed sense of panic. Unfortunately, the explosive growth over the past decade of social media has given rise to a kind of panic loop, a second-by-second retailing of the worst possible scenarios raised by the outbreak.

There is something peculiar ­going on in the way certain people are discussing the coronavirus — journalists, pundits and the armies of “influencers” endowed with a blue checkmark for no obvious reason. It’s almost as though they are taking a salacious pleasure in the grimmest and most haunting possibilities.

It’s like Chicken Little is secretly thrilled the sky is falling. ...

 

(more in the link)

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

http://gunshowcomic.com/648

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Yup.  The usual "I don't agree with your viewpoint so I label it fake news" argument.  Gets tiring after a while.  In the meantime they post links to conspiracy media people who got the crisis all wrong.  And when you point it out to them, they tell you "well you're just delusional."  

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Guys and gals, let’s put the blame game away at least until we, as an international community, get this virus under control and our various economies kick started and mutually supporting each other. I would think that we, as a species, have more important ‘fish to fry’ at the moment than trying to point a finger at ‘who started it’ or blaming politicians for inadequately addressing a virus which nobody had ever seen before.

Why don’t we just try to follow the instructions of the medical professionals and do our part to get through this pandemic.

There will be plenty of time later to blame whoever you want and for the politicians to spin the event for political capital.

Just calm down, help your neighbors, stop the panic buying....AND QUIT HOARDING TOILET PAPER!😂

Personally I think it is all Zhong’s fault....just yanking your chain Zhong!😈

[REAL Green + 65]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

No, actually there's less control of the top over the bottom in China then in America.  The top can enact decrees, but when they're not the bottom is doing whatever it wants to. Hence the massive amount of corruption there.  Without a federalized system, there's actually less control of the bottom from the top because information gets bottlenecked up the chain of bureaucracy.  Lack of freedom of press compounds the problem.

Its a mixed bag.  I agree with what you say but no other nation has the social credit system and monitoring capabilities that the Chinese do.  This virus likely caught the eye of top officials because of the seriousness of viral infections in China these days.  Little is talked about anymore with the animal contagions running wild in China now.  The referenced article bellow shows a troubling timeline of lies:

 

“China 'Inexcusably' Hid Information About Coronavirus And Should Admit Their Wrongdoing”

https://tinyurl.com/v7jpm7f     zero hedge

 

“Last week, Axios published a timeline of China's lies and cover-ups regarding COVID-19 which fit perfectly with Dr. Pullsbury's comments:    Authored by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian via Axios  A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.  This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks. 

Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill. 

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak. 

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness. 

Dec. 30:  Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.  Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.  Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information. 

Dec. 31:  Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.  China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness. 

Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.  An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples. 

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9. 

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.  Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome. 

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases. 

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China. 

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of

Edited March 26, 2020 by Tom Kirkman
Moderator edit - added paragraphs to wall of text timeline

[Qanoil + 116]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Yup.  The usual "I don't agree with your viewpoint so I label it fake news" argument.  Gets tiring after a while.  In the meantime they post links to conspiracy media people who got the crisis all wrong.  And when you point it out to them, they tell you "well you're just delusional."  

Wall Street Journal, providing a voice of reason.

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

 

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.

The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Yep, Dr. Quack and Dr. Quick with another "don't worry" article financed by your locale plutocrat whose profits are in danger. No surprise there. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

On 3/24/2020 at 1:13 PM, Rob Plant said:

Why are we wasting time and energy trying to blame everyone on this?

What we should be doing is focusing all our efforts in trying to find a working proven vaccine and how to manufacture this and distribute it to the masses in record time. I'm sure most are doing exactly this and they should be applauded and we should do everything we can to help if we can.

This company was making vacuum cleaners a couple of weeks ago and now they are making ventilators, they have asked my company to make some parts for it in 24 hours which we have done and will then roll this out into mass production.

https://www.gtech.co.uk/

Please stop all the bitching, moaning and stupid finger pointing that achieves precisely f*ck all in solving the problem

Is it really all Trump's fault??

You are responding here to my description of what a pandemic response should be.

That was not a moaning post, it was the steps that needed and still need to take place to mount an effective response.

Once everyone gets released from lockdown, those things have to be in place or we'll simply be in lockdown again.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, Qanoil said:

An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

What a couple of idiots. They're just making up numbers and pretending they are representative.

I'll do one better. As of yesterday, the US and 1,032 deaths and 394 recoveries from COVID-19. Using these cherry picked numbers, you get a mortality rate of 72.4%. Is 72.4% bullshit? Of course it's bullshit. And I'm not making up wild assumptions like they are.

Learn to read with a critical mind. Stop copy and pasting propaganda.

[Marcin2 + 724]

15 hours ago, John Foote said:

He's dead, but of recent presidents, I believe Bush41 was the one best equipped for this situation.  

Because of his fondness of oil industry, thus higher bail out chances, or to tackle the crisis in general ?

[Marcin2 + 724]

Chinese & the rest of East Asia example shows: effective quarantine for a month or two , you get rid of the virus and later life is back to normal.

I think China can still achieve 2-3 % GDP growth with official printout around 4-5%.

Covid-19 made hegemony war a moot topic, there is only for so long and not more you can blame China for CoVID19 . Later you get down to business of epidemic eradication.

East Asian advanced supply chains are becoming more interdependent each month and more distant from European and American. 
Ineffectiveness in epidemic response in these regions adds additional no supply risks on top of political ones.

TSMC cannot dump Huawei as Apple and other clients face roadblocks due to stalled R&D  and prototyping effort in US.

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

48 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

You are responding here to my description of what a pandemic response should be.

That was not a moaning post, it was the steps that needed and still need to take place to mount an effective response.

Once everyone gets released from lockdown, those things have to be in place or we'll simply be in lockdown again.

Yep sorry Geoff I just picked on your post as all i had read for 2 pages was moaning and bitching and that doesnt help anyone.

When we get released from lockdown everyone will be down the pub partying I absolutely guarantee it!