Covid-19 exponential growth

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Morbid Gambling Online!!!!

Put your money where your mouth is!!!

Step right Up!

$50US each

Closest to death total gets 60% of pool, 2nd gets 30%, 3rd gets 5%, and 5% for charity or Oilprice

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

All based On ^ New York tracker

If a player dies their share is evenly distributed between remaining players

Edited March 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

From your link these numbers are nuts.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

How do you even triage and admit 2500 people per day let alone treat them?  10,000+ in hospital just for this let alone everything else?

People kindly delay your childbirth, heart attack, or cancer for the next 6 months...

Hip and knee replacements are delayed indefinitely unless super rich. 

The hospitals are divided into CV19 wards and everything else. Javitz center is now a hospital and the hotels are being converted into hospitals too, though I would be surprised if they manage to get people to staff them. They are not able to save them all. Ventilators just are not available in those quantities yet, even if they took all the states' stockpiles and all the military stockpiles. The city had something North of 3000 ICU beds at first. They have the Navy hospital ship and they desperately need to start with HCQ/Z to keep people from deteriorating so that they need to be on a ventilator. Need to actually look at Mylan's progress on HCQ and see if anyone is making zithromax in quantity. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The hospitals are divided into CV19 wards and everything else. Javitz center is now a hospital and the hotels are being converted into hospitals too, though I would be surprised if they manage to get people to staff them. They are not able to save them all. Ventilators just are not available in those quantities yet, even if they took all the states' stockpiles and all the military stockpiles. The city had something North of 3000 ICU beds at first. They have the Navy hospital ship and they desperately need to start with HCQ/Z to keep people from deteriorating so that they need to be on a ventilator. Need to actually look at Mylan's progress on HCQ and see if anyone is making zithromax in quantity. 

Damn, I estimate 2500 deaths in one day soon.  that's just New York

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Seriously if you know people who can manufacture

https://open-source-covid-19-ventilator-canada.mn.co/

Edited March 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Damn, I estimate 2500 deaths in one day soon.  that's just New York

Nobody else but Michigan had that problem to such an extent. I am assuming that was because of their schools being open late into the contagion. Didn't check. 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

Nobody else but Michigan had that problem to such an extent. I am assuming that was because of their schools being open late into the contagion. Didn't check. 

 

I hope I'm wrong; sadly I am rarely wrong on this type of thing.  The kinetics and equilibrium of chemistry is scarily close to large populations.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Ventilators? Don't worry, your glorious leader got your back (26th March):

“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311

[Boat + 1,323]

On 3/22/2020 at 1:10 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

I'm a baby boomer. A lifelong runner. A mountain climber. A biker. And wouldn't you know it, I contracted a bad disease a few years back that left me with only one functioning lung. So, at age seventy-five, I'm in the highest risk category. If this gets really awful, and I present to the ER with say 120 other C-virus victims, I'm going to get triaged to the parking lot. 

And I'm okay with that. I'm not suicidal and very few people appreciate life more than I, but I think if we come out of this with our same bloated population of elderly people (all that 90 is the new 50 bullshit) and a badly damaged economy, we're in a world of hurt. 90% of Medicare is spent in the last year of a person's life, 25% in the last month. I've had a good run. Most of us have.

Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren. And that's paramount for most of us.

 

 

On 3/22/2020 at 7:46 PM, Ward Smith said:

From the Medium article. Highly speculative and as I live in the US there are many no's that should say yes. Why not? Oh because the authors think the USA is like teeny tiny Singapore and should be treated as one big monolith. In point of fact, Washington, California and New York to name a few have instituted the serious measures. Podunk, Iowa has not, because no one is infected there. The universities are all closed, the NCAA tourney is cancelled along with every other major crowd event. But we're 50 states with 50 different ways to do things. 

The perfect example of why states are not capable of handling a big crisis. A more functional federal government leads with planning and preparation to help states. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Nobody else but Michigan had that problem to such an extent. I am assuming that was because of their schools being open late into the contagion. Didn't check. 

 

Sorry I meant 2500 deaths per day, not total deaths if I wasn't clear.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Physical_and_Theoretical_Chemistry_Textbook_Maps/Supplemental_Modules_(Physical_and_Theoretical_Chemistry)/Kinetics/Rate_Laws/Gas_Phase_Kinetics/Maxwell-Boltzmann_Distributions

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Ventilators? Don't worry, your glorious leader got your back (26th March):

“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311

The president's guessing is not relevant, the production will go online and produce as much as it can and we will see how much more is needed as capacity goes online. The moment it is online, ventilators held in reserve for other locations can be released to NYC and other hotspots. But the major demand from Cuomo is that NYC "deserves" ALL of them NOW, everybody else be damned.

Again a case of misdirected anger and an attempt to paint Trump as an uncaring troglodyte. 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The president's guessing is not relevant, the production will go online and produce as much as it can and we will see how much more is needed as capacity goes online. The moment it is online, ventilators held in reserve for other locations can be released to NYC and other hotspots. But the major demand from Cuomo is that NYC "deserves" ALL of them NOW, everybody else be damned.

Again a case of misdirected anger and an attempt to paint Trump as an uncaring troglodyte. 

Well, it's not that Trump is an uncaring troglodyte, he is in fact an uncaring ignorant troglodyte, he proves it every day with the endless stream of easily refutable lies that spew out of his mouth, his complete disregard about the fate of those he considers insignificant, his repulsive narcissism that demands people bow before him and praise him for doing his job, although he wasted the time USA had to prepare by downplaying and ridiculing the threat, so a significant portion of those who die today are his direct responsibility. He surrounded himself with nodders and ignorant yes men who have to grovel instead of offer meaningful advice. And it's only the beginning - due tto his mismanagement of the crisis, America has quickly risen to the first place in terms of the number of infected and people are and will be dying by thousands, because it's just the beginning of the true crisis. 

And while so called "totalitarian and evil" China managed to turn the crisis around and slow the virus down into manageable proportions, America's response was what that Guardian columnist said: "Take the lives of the weak, old and the poor, us rich are keeping our money!"

Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren.

Another boatload. Future generations will need arable land, fresh water and climate that is actually survivable by human civilization. In other words, precisely what your generation destroyed by its obsessive greed. But hey, what the heck? You had a good run, your belly is full, you are 70 years old, the world can burn for all you care, right? At least you were able to congratulate yourself for your "wisdom", no "special kind of wisdom". Good job, buddy!

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 3/26/2020 at 9:28 AM, Marcin2 said:

Because of his fondness of oil industry, thus higher bail out chances, or to tackle the crisis in general ?

Because he was essentially a technocrat, not really attune to an ideology. A legendary rolodex with connections. He was the personification of deep state in some ways, and could marshall countries, not just cabinets in the executive branch. A WWII alliance builder, the last of his generation, we'll never have another because they are dead. Of course he was also a crappy campaigner. 

A crises would be something he would rise to, and folks would rally around him for.

[John Foote + 1,135]

decent UTube for explaining the growth. Done by math geeks, not doctors or politicians, or heaven help us, journalists.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by John Foote
to add some humor

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 minutes ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Well, it's not that Trump is an uncaring troglodyte, he is in fact an uncaring ignorant troglodyte, he proves it every day with the endless stream of easily refutable lies that spew out of his mouth, his complete disregard about the fate of those he considers insignificant, his repulsive narcissism that demands people bow before him and praise him for doing his job, although he wasted the time USA had to prepare by downplaying and ridiculing the threat, so a significant portion of those who die today are his direct responsibility. He surrounded himself with nodders and ignorant yes men who have to grovel instead of offer meaningful advice. And it's only the beginning - due tto his mismanagement of the crisis, America has quickly risen to the first place in terms of the number of infected and people are and will be dying by thousands, because it's just the beginning of the true crisis. 

And while so called "totalitarian and evil" China managed to turn the crisis around and slow the virus down into manageable proportions, America's response was what that Guardian columnist said: "Take the lives of the weak, old and the poor, us rich are keeping our money!"

Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren.

Another boatload. Future generations will need arable land, fresh water and climate that is actually survivable by human civilization. In other words, precisely what your generation destroyed by its obsessive greed. But hey, what the heck? You had a good run, your belly is full, you are 70 years old, the world can burn for all you care, right? At least you were able to congratulate yourself for your "wisdom", no "special kind of wisdom". Good job, buddy!

Was Trump the president of Italy? Of France? Spain? UK?, Norway?

The advice being given was wrong. It was driven by disinformation from China and the WHO and thus the CDC, not knowing what to do with their local China colleagues not cooperating and being accused of lying. We here were talking about how bad it was, that Wuhan is dying. Information that the Chinese did their best to hide. It gave the prescription of going on, the spread of the virus would be slow enough, the mortality is low, ample hospital beds. The N. Europeans were going to let it run its course and create herd immunity. They did indeed just need to slow it down. Ban dense crowds. School etc. But the folks took the wrong message and went from crowds at school to crowds at the sea side all along the English shore. And in spring break in Florida down New Orleans. In the attempts to calm people down they made them lackadaisical. This went on till Nial Fergusson's report for Oxford econ. It had horrific numbers. It convinced people to ignore Chinese info and take on the expectation of exponential growth that we see now. 

The epidemiological consensus presented to leaders was wrong. It was shared by all the leaders in the West. They were hoodwinked by the Chinese and the bungling of testing by the CDC. Fergusson's report came out 2 weeks ago and gave a quick turnaround to policy. 

Your criticism is misplaced, deriving evil motivations from mistakes that were made because the pros gave bad advice. Trump is not responsible for the on the ground decisions, he had disbanded the pandemic response team at the CDC, but they were not providing useful work in preparation, just reams of regulations about the response, what they didn't plan for is a virus like this one. The governors and mayors are the front line responders with the authority to act. The CDC and FEMA support them. The governors and mayors didn't act for weeks. When they did, they went overboard and shut down everything without regard to the contagion risk of what they were halting. CA cities are testing >20% positive for live virus. Their shutdown a week ahead of NYC provided a chance to slow down the wave of hospitalizations. Probably still too late to prevent disaster. NYC though, kept schools open and people crammed into the subways till Mar 11. NY Metro (incl. NJ)  is testing >40% positive for live virus. Meaning that the exposure level is likely around 80% because of many symptomatics showing up for treatment with residual lung damage AFTER they have already beaten the virus. At this point, the NYC quarantine is trying to prevent what has already happened. That was DeBlazio and Cuomo. 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

51 minutes ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

And while so called "totalitarian and evil" China managed to turn the crisis around and slow the virus down into manageable proportions, America's response was what that Guardian columnist said: "Take the lives of the weak, old and the poor, us rich are keeping our money!"

Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren.

Another boatload. Future generations will need arable land, fresh water and climate that is actually survivable by human civilization. In other words, precisely what your generation destroyed by its obsessive greed. But hey, what the heck? You had a good run, your belly is full, you are 70 years old, the world can burn for all you care, right? At least you were able to congratulate yourself for your "wisdom", no "special kind of wisdom". Good job, buddy!

China's communist party and the government officials it controls are indeed evil and totalitarian. They lied about every aspect of the disease, fabricated numbers and met with "success" through draconian measures. They downplayed the outbreak, they pushed their unsuspecting people to infect the world at large while protesting every flight ban. They provided fake number and hid the deaths in Wuhan. Hardly any information came through official channels. Just some academic papers  with limited value. 

 

The criticism you are throwing at the boomers is garbage. The planet is not destroyed. The future is intact, and greed was not all that was going on. The demographics have already reversed to shrinking the number of annual births in total. The future is not a bleak world of disappearing resources and starvation, unless your generation wants to make it so through its primitivist environmental dogma and dismorphic social expectations that your boomer parents installed in you to make life easier for them.   

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

21 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

From your link these numbers are nuts.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

How do you even triage and admit 2500 people per day let alone treat them?  10,000+ in hospital just for this let alone everything else?

People kindly delay your childbirth, heart attack, or cancer for the next 6 months...

Hip and knee replacements are delayed indefinitely unless super rich. 

Already had my hip replaced...I’m cool.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 3/26/2020 at 5:16 AM, Rob Plant said:

We dont have military on the streets as some countries do.

Press Release update from U.S. Army.

link: Army North expands response to COVID-19

pdf attached: Media-Advisory-20-03-002-Army-North-Expands-Response-to-COVID-19.pdf

March 28, 2020

Army North expands response to COVID-19

FORT SAM HOUSTON, Texas – At the direction of U.S Northern Command, and as the
COVID-19 response mission expands, U.S. Army North has requested additional units deploy to
provide defense support of civil authorities. These additional mobilizations will further enable the
Department of Defense to rapidly employ military capabilities to support our whole-of-nation
response.

Led by Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson and headquartered at Joint Base San Antonio-Fort Sam
Houston, Texas, U.S. Army North is U.S. Northern Command’s theater Army and serves as the Joint
Forces Land Component Command for all federal ground troops in the continental United States for
Homeland Defense and Defense Support of Civil Authorities. Army North is Northern Command’s
designated lead component to work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to align
federal military support to validated requests for assistance.

“I have requested this additional deployment to further expand the use of our military
capabilities, in support of FEMA, to the communities which need us most.” said Richardson.
The units mobilized by this request are:  ...

... In total, this request activates an additional 800 people who are deploying for Army North in
support of FEMA. The units assigned to this mission will provide medical, planning,
communication, transportation and logistics support. They will not directly participate in civilian
law enforcement activities. 

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

18 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Press Release update from U.S. Army.

link: Army North expands response to COVID-19

pdf attached: Media-Advisory-20-03-002-Army-North-Expands-Response-to-COVID-19.pdf

March 28, 2020

Army North expands response to COVID-19

FORT SAM HOUSTON, Texas – At the direction of U.S Northern Command, and as the
COVID-19 response mission expands, U.S. Army North has requested additional units deploy to
provide defense support of civil authorities. These additional mobilizations will further enable the
Department of Defense to rapidly employ military capabilities to support our whole-of-nation
response.

Led by Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson and headquartered at Joint Base San Antonio-Fort Sam
Houston, Texas, U.S. Army North is U.S. Northern Command’s theater Army and serves as the Joint
Forces Land Component Command for all federal ground troops in the continental United States for
Homeland Defense and Defense Support of Civil Authorities. Army North is Northern Command’s
designated lead component to work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to align
federal military support to validated requests for assistance.

“I have requested this additional deployment to further expand the use of our military
capabilities, in support of FEMA, to the communities which need us most.” said Richardson.
The units mobilized by this request are:  ...

... In total, this request activates an additional 800 people who are deploying for Army North in
support of FEMA. The units assigned to this mission will provide medical, planning,
communication, transportation and logistics support. They will not directly participate in civilian
law enforcement activities. 

 

This is fine as I see it, they are just supporting the emergency services, they aren't participating in civilian law enforcement. If that does happen then were all in a world of pain!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

20 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Press Release update from U.S. Army.

link: Army North expands response to COVID-19

pdf attached: Media-Advisory-20-03-002-Army-North-Expands-Response-to-COVID-19.pdf

March 28, 2020

Army North expands response to COVID-19

FORT SAM HOUSTON, Texas – At the direction of U.S Northern Command, and as the
COVID-19 response mission expands, U.S. Army North has requested additional units deploy to
provide defense support of civil authorities. These additional mobilizations will further enable the
Department of Defense to rapidly employ military capabilities to support our whole-of-nation
response.

Led by Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson and headquartered at Joint Base San Antonio-Fort Sam
Houston, Texas, U.S. Army North is U.S. Northern Command’s theater Army and serves as the Joint
Forces Land Component Command for all federal ground troops in the continental United States for
Homeland Defense and Defense Support of Civil Authorities. Army North is Northern Command’s
designated lead component to work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to align
federal military support to validated requests for assistance.

“I have requested this additional deployment to further expand the use of our military
capabilities, in support of FEMA, to the communities which need us most.” said Richardson.
The units mobilized by this request are:  ...

... In total, this request activates an additional 800 people who are deploying for Army North in
support of FEMA. The units assigned to this mission will provide medical, planning,
communication, transportation and logistics support. They will not directly participate in civilian
law enforcement activities. 

 

So there, Rob!😂

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

I'm ready to turn the corner on this thing and get more optimistic. The back side slope on this virus seems pretty steep. And the peaks and total number of cases are nowhere near as high as initial estimates. Italy is seeing a drop in cases and a drop of over 50% of the number of people on respirators in just this past week.  They have had a total of 100,000 confirmed cases in a country of 60 million. Yes, their medical systems got overwhelmed. New York is getting overwhelmed with 60,000 cases in a state with a population of 19 million. This is a testament to how thin our medical systems are. No surprise there.  Not enough ventilators?  For what?  That's like saying their aren't enough "burn unit" beds if the Earth gets hit by fire and brimstone. Of course there aren't enough ventilators. There's no reason to ever have that number of ventilators. 

I would really expect to see a lot more cases at this point. And I would expect to see a much higher peak in the areas were it is starting to abate. Those two realities make me optimistic. 

New York will peak in 3 weeks. Washington seems like it's nearing a peak. California will roll out slower because of it's size, and different places will peak over the next couple of months, but this seems like 30 days from now we will see daylight. The more I study the Spanish Flu the more I see this pattern.  The Spanish Flu devastated Philadelphia for THREE weeks.

The problems aren't with the virus. The problems are with the medical system. If it weren't for the fact that the medical systems are getting overrun we could just let the virus run it's course, like the flu. Once the peak occurs in an area then that area should start to open back up.

What are the financial consequences?  More than $10 trillion for sure. Probably closer to $20 trillion. Government spending has already been close to $2.5 trillion, fed interventions will be in the many trillions, debt destruction will be in the trillions, economic impact will be in the trillions. Luckily nobody seems to care about debt levels or money printing (in spite of 30 years of dire warnings). Will that continue?

10% of the Spanish flu occurred in the Spring.... 90% occurred the following Fall. Will this do that? If it does then all bets are off.

I plan on using the late Summer lull to prepare for a possible resurgence from October - December both financially and by restocking my food supplies. I started this run with over 1,000 lbs of stored food and I'm glad I did. I also have goats for milk, so we can go months without shopping for food. I'll be preparing for another round in the Fall.

I thought 20% infection rate. We might have 2% by the time this abates. Does that mean we have 18% to go? Does it mean that 15% have actually been infected but most have no symptoms?  The Spanish Flu had NO vaccines and NO treatments, but it still burned out in less than 3 months (each time, Spring and Fall). So even without any controls, this will too.  I think April will see the peak in NY, May will see other peaks across the U.S. and June everyone will be starting to unclinch their sphincters. 

If this does a 10x repeat in the Fall like Spanish Flu did... this economy is roasted, burnt and buried for a very long time. Hopefully that won't happen. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Great post, that. 

On the optimism side, the French government sanctioned the 80-person study on HCQ/Z. That combo--probably in conjunction with Remdesiver for the bad ones--will likely be used globally, as it clearly decreases viral shedding, and also replication. Additionally, Moderna and Inovio are going strong on a messenger-RNA vaccine. 

I think you're right--it's the second wave that gets you. However, maybe the above will mitigate against that second wave. Whatever, this has been a dramatic wake-up call to the world. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Gerry Maddoux

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Lets hope the boffins have a vaccine in place to fight the second wave if indeed we get one.

Deaths in the UK have fallen from 260 on Saturday, 209 Sunday and today 180, there is cause to be optimistic, and we're told we are 10-14 days away from the peak.

Its still a highly infectious nasty virus but its not the killer Ebola or MERS is IMO.

Time will tell I guess