Wait till America opens their Q1 401k Investment Statements and see they have lost 35% of their retirement savings. They can blame the Authoritarian Chinese Communist Party..

[BLA + 1,666]

Maybe then ALL in the U.S. will finally understand the Chinese Leadership for what it is.

The gripe is not with the Chinese people.  They are also victims of their leadership. 

The U.S. needs an Industrial Policy.

The U.S.  needs to disengage from China in regard to certain industries.

Would you trust your 5G Communication to these people ?

Financial advisors always recommend holding your stock investments on these downturns.  Was this time different ? 

Edited March 24, 2020 by BLA

[Meredith Poor + 895]

Bought and paid for by the Russian Intelligence Services.

This is another example of inane finger pointing. A lot of other governments have been mishandling this crisis, including the US, Iran, Italy, and so forth.Talking heads on TV and the Internet have been warning for years that the US stock market is overpriced. Something was going to take it down sooner or later.

'Industrial Policy' has always tended to be an idea favored by Democrats, particularly union state Demos.

First thing is that the candidates have to survive our pandemic and make it to November. Question is, who will be Biden's Veep? At this point that is a highly material question.

The US should pull the plug on a lot of Chinese interaction, but it needs to be science and security based, not simply 'CCP is evil'. The open air wildlife markets that were the source of the virus in China are also found in many other parts of the world, and are suspected for things like Ebola as well. I've written up on this elsewhere.

As long as the CCP has a policy that 'everyone in the country exists in the service of the state' the US policy should be 'US critical infrastructure should not include any significant Chinese sourced components'. This would mean anything related to telecommunications, power transmission, pipeline networks, water supplies, food production, etc. This would shut down a lot of trade between the US and China. Such policies would have to be applied to any other states that either explicitly or de facto operate the same way, which would probably include North Korea and Iran. However, it might also apply to Israel.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Absolutely 0 trust by market participants towards current government. Prediction coming true.  I think we're looking at S&P at 1500.  Just didn't expect it this early.  Gah. I'm pissed I couldn't take advantage of this opportunity.  At least on the bounce back (eventually) I can make easy moolah.

You can blame it on whoever you want.  It doesn't matter.  If you're long and didn't sell in time, you're f-ed anyways.  Viruses and leveraged funds don't give a shi- about ideology.  

Edited March 22, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Oh yeah, one other thing, most of my neighbors and family sold a week or two ago.  

[BLA + 1,666]

On 3/22/2020 at 5:59 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Bought and paid for by the Russian Intelligence Services.

This is another example of inane finger pointing. A lot of other governments have been mishandling this crisis, including the US, Iran, Italy, and so forth.Talking heads on TV and the Internet have been warning for years that the US stock market is overpriced. Something was going to take it down sooner or later.

'Industrial Policy' has always tended to be an idea favored by Democrats, particularly union state Demos.

First thing is that the candidates have to survive our pandemic and make it to November. Question is, who will be Biden's Veep? At this point that is a highly material question.

The US should pull the plug on a lot of Chinese interaction, but it needs to be science and security based, not simply 'CCP is evil'. The open air wildlife markets that were the source of the virus in China are also found in many other parts of the world, and are suspected for things like Ebola as well. I've written up on this elsewhere.

As long as the CCP has a policy that 'everyone in the country exists in the service of the state' the US policy should be 'US critical infrastructure should not include any significant Chinese sourced components'. This would mean anything related to telecommunications, power transmission, pipeline networks, water supplies, food production, etc. This would shut down a lot of trade between the US and China. Such policies would have to be applied to any other states that either explicitly or de facto operate the same way, which would probably include North Korea and Iran. However, it might also apply to Israel.

"This is another example of inane finger pointing"

Meredith, not inane finger pointing .  The CCP after failing act as a responsible nation of the world, covering up the virus and responsible for unleashing this scourge on the world HAD THE BALLS TO SAY THE VIRUS WAS STARTED BY THE U.S. MILITARY.  That can not be left unanswered.

You probably will say nobody will believe that, but millions believed Congressman Schiff's Russian propaganda hoax. 

IT'S QUITE SIMPLE.  THE SECRECY AND OBFUSCATIONS BY THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP LEAD TO  A WORLD PANDEMIC AND WHAT COULD WELL BE A WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION.

NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT. 

THEY COULD HAVE STOPPED THIS IN ITS TRACKS BACK IN DECEMBER .

CORRECT, THE FINGER IS POINTED AT THEM .

The U.S Dow is down 10,000 pts (and going lower) and you say the market was overpriced anyway or many governments mishandled the crisis.

What world do you live in ? Hard to fathom people making excuses for China.  

CHINA CAUSED THIS , HID THIS AND LIED ABOUT IT FROM THE BEGINNING. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by BLA

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The markets are crashing because no one f-ing trusts anyone.  What I'm trying to tell you is this: there's been a steady erosion of public trust in the markets and the US government over the last 10 years.  We're now seeing the results.  You can blame the Democrats.  The Democrats will blame the Republicans.  I don't give a f-.  As far as I'm concerned, this is the responsibility of both sides.

As far as I'm concerned, the moment the factions of a country care more about their own factions then the rest of the country, that country is f-ed.  When the economy crashed in Venezuela, Maduro was more focused on blaming others for the disaster then on fixing the problem.  So of course the economy crashed even more.  The same thing is happening right now in America.  THERE IS NO PUBLIC TRUST IN THE ADMINISTRATION OR THE GOVERNMENT SO EVERYONE SELLS.  Even now, see, in the middle of this market disaster you can't stop yourself from putting blame on other factions for this.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

The markets are crashing because no one f-ing trusts anyone.  What I'm trying to tell you is this: there's been a steady erosion of public trust in the markets and the US government over the last 10 years.  We're now seeing the results.  You can blame the Democrats.  The Democrats will blame the Republicans.  I don't give a f-.  As far as I'm concerned, this is the responsibility of both sides.

As far as I'm concerned, the moment the factions of a country care more about their own factions then the rest of the country, that country is f-ed.  When the economy crashed in Venezuela, Maduro was more focused on blaming others for the disaster then on fixing the problem.  So of course the economy crashed even more.  The same thing is happening right now in America.  THERE IS NO PUBLIC TRUST IN THE ADMINISTRATION OR THE GOVERNMENT SO EVERYONE SELLS.  Even now, see, in the middle of this market disaster you can't stop yourself from putting blame on other factions for this.  

That is Neil Howe's idea in the "Fourth Turning". The entire structure of the administocracy has proven to be thoroughly incompetent. Jim Bianco pointed out that the Fed's commercial paper and repo facilities are not working because the government can't speak with one voice. JPM bought WaMu during the depths of the crisis because the Fed asked them to and threatened them if they didn't. Then for 7 years, fine after fine was laid on them for WaMu's transgressions costing JPM $39 Billion. 

Dodd Frank now stands in the way of everything, and the Fed asking the banks to break the rules in order to provide liquidity into the market is met with a demand for a Justice department waiver and regulatory relief from the SEC, Federal Accounting standards board, OCC, FDIC, CFPB etc. which the Fed can't even begin to pressure.  So the Fed was told to figure out a legal format for the problem and they came up with a $4 Trillion backup facility for new loans and every segment of the market. But for equities. Not clear what they can do for the junk bonds yet, but they are acting for Munis and high grade corporates. 

But the iliquidity forced by Dodd Frank has meant that there are not only pennies on the exchange floors, but whole dollar bills and nobody is picking them up. Basel III doesn't help either. 

But suspending or repealing these laws and agreements seems impossible.

 

I think the turf protection and regulatory suppression by the CDC and FDA of attempts to test and treat patients will cause these institutions severe damage in the public eye.

[George8944 + 128]

4 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

You can blame it on whoever you want.  It doesn't matter.  If you're long and didn't sell in time, you're f-ed anyways.  Viruses and leveraged funds don't give a shi- about ideology.  

Totally agree.   Those who lost in their 401K have nobody to blame but themselves.  Now with that said,  my opinion after being through a few crashes with a 401K and IRA is that most people don't have the knowledge to follow markets close enough to know when to bail.  I'm not demeaning anyone here. Not everyone has a penchant for the strange movements of business, human herds and economics.  I happen to love numbers.  If I had to retire based on my knowledge of Chemistry or English grammar,  I would be a deadman walking. 

BTW - I too think the S&P is going lower.   The problems of 2008 were never fixed and the run-up since then has been a false economy created by the FED and large corporations creating more debt.  We may just unwind all the way back to 2008.  The big difference is we have trillions more in debt.   This won't end well.

[Hotone + 412]

22 minutes ago, George8944 said:

Totally agree.   Those who lost in their 401K have nobody to blame but themselves.  Now with that said,  my opinion after being through a few crashes with a 401K and IRA is that most people don't have the knowledge to follow markets close enough to know when to bail.  I'm not demeaning anyone here. Not everyone has a penchant for the strange movements of business, human herds and economics.  I happen to love numbers.  If I had to retire based on my knowledge of Chemistry or English grammar,  I would be a deadman walking. 

BTW - I too think the S&P is going lower.   The problems of 2008 were never fixed and the run-up since then has been a false economy created by the FED and large corporations creating more debt.  We may just unwind all the way back to 2008.  The big difference is we have trillions more in debt.   This won't end well.

Do you recommend to buy gold?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 minutes ago, George8944 said:

Totally agree.   Those who lost in their 401K have nobody to blame but themselves.  Now with that said,  my opinion after being through a few crashes with a 401K and IRA is that most people don't have the knowledge to follow markets close enough to know when to bail.  I'm not demeaning anyone here. Not everyone has a penchant for the strange movements of business, human herds and economics.  I happen to love numbers.  If I had to retire based on my knowledge of Chemistry or English grammar,  I would be a deadman walking. 

BTW - I too think the S&P is going lower.   The problems of 2008 were never fixed and the run-up since then has been a false economy created by the FED and large corporations creating more debt.  We may just unwind all the way back to 2008.  The big difference is we have trillions more in debt.   This won't end well.

I don't agree. I did 1035 exchanges for all my IRA and 401k holdings starting in December and put it all in annuities, at a time when everyone said that was the dumbest thing in the world. Fisher investments sends me a letter every month or so telling me annuities are ridiculous. The math is easy, if your equities go down 40%, how much do they have to go up percentage wise, to make up that loss? So what if my annuity only pays 3% in a down year? My baseline is 66.66% better than the one who lost 40% 

As for "trust" that doesn't mean much for equities. Warren Buffet doesn't "trust" your company, he analyses the downside and upside. He's drooling at the bargains out there, and because he's sitting on $135billion cash, he's going to make some exceptional deals, think the Bank of America deal in 2008. He's Potter and he's not panicking. I might buy some more Berkshire shares. Won't pay off for awhile, but like the ones that were around $35k in the late 90's, that was a good deal later. Take money off the table, everything else becomes playing with house money. 

The market is panicked because no one knows how long and how deep this disaster will be. Watch "It's A Wonderful Life" again. What else is going on while you're social distancing? I'm seeing light at the end of the tunnel. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I don't agree. I did 1035 exchanges for all my IRA and 401k holdings starting in December and put it all in annuities, at a time when everyone said that was the dumbest thing in the world. Fisher investments sends me a letter every month or so telling me annuities are ridiculous. The math is easy, if your equities go down 40%, how much do they have to go up percentage wise, to make up that loss? So what if my annuity only pays 3% in a down year? My baseline is 66.66% better than the one who lost 40% 

As for "trust" that doesn't mean much for equities. Warren Buffet doesn't "trust" your company, he analyses the downside and upside. He's drooling at the bargains out there, and because he's sitting on $135billion cash, he's going to make some exceptional deals, think the Bank of America deal in 2008. He's Potter and he's not panicking. I might buy some more Berkshire shares. Won't pay off for awhile, but like the ones that were around $35k in the late 90's, that was a good deal later. Take money off the table, everything else becomes playing with house money. 

The market is panicked because no one knows how long and how deep this disaster will be. Watch "It's A Wonderful Life" again. What else is going on while you're social distancing? I'm seeing light at the end of the tunnel. 

If stuff goes down 50% it has to up 100% to get back to where it was.

Annuities can be an Ok idea in some circumstances.  Question what happens in the case you die?

My banker told me to pull money out of one low-risk fund I hold; I resisted as that fund always goes way Up with everything else hits the fan.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

If stuff goes down 50% it has to up 100% to get back to where it was.

Annuities can be an Ok idea in some circumstances.  Question what happens in the case you die?

My banker told me to pull money out of one low-risk fund I hold; I resisted as that fund always goes way Up with everything else hits the fan.

My math is correct also. It's rare that equities go down 50% but 40% is fairly common. Average annual returns for the stock market are 15%, so maybe 4 years to break even. 

If I die the annuity goes to my assigned heirs. Since virtually all annuities are tied to insurance companies, it's easy to get additional riders on them adding life insurance as well. Some of the ones I bought (parlayed across 4 companies) have automatic insurance policies without even getting the rider. Only A rated or better insurance companies obviously. 

Low risk, low return, but there are trillions in mutual funds that are obligated to be in the market. They can't sit on the sidelines in cash. They're registered as an investment vehicle with rules and regulations. Even your low risk fund has published criteria for their holdings. After people panic and sell, those funds start accumulating new cash from 401k's and other sources, and they'll jump right back into the market at bargain basement prices. Then, when they show ridiculous returns for a few years a bunch of people sitting in cash making 0.01% will get jealous of those 20% returns and buy in too late. Lather rinse repeat. 

[BLA + 1,666]

23 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

The markets are crashing because no one f-ing trusts anyone.  What I'm trying to tell you is this: there's been a steady erosion of public trust in the markets and the US government over the last 10 years.  We're now seeing the results.  You can blame the Democrats.  The Democrats will blame the Republicans.  I don't give a f-.  As far as I'm concerned, this is the responsibility of both sides.

As far as I'm concerned, the moment the factions of a country care more about their own factions then the rest of the country, that country is f-ed.  When the economy crashed in Venezuela, Maduro was more focused on blaming others for the disaster then on fixing the problem.  So of course the economy crashed even more.  The same thing is happening right now in America.  THERE IS NO PUBLIC TRUST IN THE ADMINISTRATION OR THE GOVERNMENT SO EVERYONE SELLS.  Even now, see, in the middle of this market disaster you can't stop yourself from putting blame on other factions for this.  

Zhong

Everyone sells because the government has literally shut down most of the economy. 

If China hides the fact that a PANDEMIC breaks out and destroys records, arrest those that shed light on it and take no action to mitigate until after tens of thousands of Chinese tourist come to the U.S. and over 300,000 Chinese exchange students return from the holiday break I blame them.  

I do agree nobody Trust the government.  It's been going on for a long time.   Now getting worse. 

Agree, the market and oil going lower. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by BLA

[surrept33 + 609]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Zhong

Everyone sells because the government has literally shut down most of the economy. 

If China hides the fact that s PANDEMIC breaks out and destroys records, arrest those that shed light on it and take no action to mitigate the crisis I blame them.  

I do agree nobody Trust the government.  Getting worse. 

Agree, the market and oil going lower. 

Indeed, some people in wallstreet are predicting a decline of Q2 GDP by 20-30%. That'd be the highest ever in a quarter.

[BLA + 1,666]

5 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Indeed, some people in wallstreet are predicting a decline of Q2 GDP by 20-30%. That'd be the highest ever in a quarter.

Just look out your window.  Do you see much car traffic 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@Zhong Lu
 

Is it lack of trust or the herd (lemming) mentality? I’m not disagreeing with, just would like your opinion.

 

 

[JoMack + 549]

If crude oil continues the steep dive, which looks like it's happening, millions are impacted with job loss and on top a loss of millions of bbls of U.S. oil will,  in the end,  really hurt the economy?  Thousands of independent oil companies will be cutting production and possibly abandoning stripper wells.  Pioneer's CEO says 1.2 million bbls will drop out of the U.S. oil market.  He speaks for Pioneer and the big independent oil producers.  The small guys make the oil market rock and roll. We're going to lose a lot more than 1.2 million by next year if $20 bbls or less continue due to the pissing match between SA and Russia.  Which raises another question, if these two morons continue down this path will they be able to continue to run their countries in the red for long?  Will Russia do something really insane and launch against Saudi Arabia when the oil prices keep the downward turn.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Possible I suppose. Nobody will put ‘boots on the ground’ during this pandemic. Once you start launching missiles you open a serious can of worms.

[BLA + 1,666]

12 hours ago, JoMack said:

If crude oil continues the steep dive, which looks like it's happening, millions are impacted with job loss and on top a loss of millions of bbls of U.S. oil will,  in the end,  really hurt the economy?  Thousands of independent oil companies will be cutting production and possibly abandoning stripper wells.  Pioneer's CEO says 1.2 million bbls will drop out of the U.S. oil market.  He speaks for Pioneer and the big independent oil producers.  The small guys make the oil market rock and roll. We're going to lose a lot more than 1.2 million by next year if $20 bbls or less continue due to the pissing match between SA and Russia.  Which raises another question, if these two morons continue down this path will they be able to continue to run their countries in the red for long?  Will Russia do something really insane and launch against Saudi Arabia when the oil prices keep the downward turn.

Saudi and Russia pissing match now is just a side show.  Look around.  The country and the economy are on a lock down. It's the virus. My estimate is that 10 mm bbls/day glut is going to be the minimum.  

No cuts by OPEC , Russia , and U.S.  is going to stop drop in price with 10 mm/day + glut coming.  

The TRR Commission wants to join Saudi/OPEC+ in a 10% production cut.  The Shale producers are already cutting back that and more.  Soon the storage will fill up and force real shutdowns.

Companies like Pioneer is hurt more than some Shale producers because most of their production is exported. The Saudis are determined to not be beaten on price. 

Just have to hunker down and wait it out. 

When things get better and if Saudis continue to produce more oil the U.S. Congress should pass the NOPEC  legislation. 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by BLA

[SERWIN + 749]

21 hours ago, BLA said:

Maybe then ALL in the U.S. will finally understand the Chinese Leadership for what it is.

The gripe is not with the Chinese people.  They are also victims of their leadership. 

The U.S. needs an Industrial Policy.

The U.S.  needs to disengage from China regard certain industries.

Would you trust your 5G Communication to these people ?

Financial advisors always recommend holding your stock investments on these downturns.  Was this time different ? 

Maybe... but some people are really stupid, they will believe the naysayers that tell them everything is OK, even when they can see everything is NOT OK... And you are correct, the Chinese people are really no different than the people in America, Germany, Russia. They just want to live peaceful prosperous lives. It's the governments that are creating the real problems. Just like all the people here that bust on Americans, we didn't create the rules, and while we are partly responsible for not getting rid of those that did, it is getting to the point that we are going to have to physically DO something about our out of control government. I'm thinking public hangings of several key players in our congress would be a great start, and then maybe the rest will get their rectal cranial positional similarity issued resolved....

[canadas canadas + 136]

Unfortunately this all has the potential of not only killing many people but also bankrupting people, businesses, governments, countries, etc.

Edited March 23, 2020 by canadas canadas

[canadas canadas + 136]

11 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Indeed, some people in wallstreet are predicting a decline of Q2 GDP by 20-30%. That'd be the highest ever in a quarter.

Unfortunately, a domino effect could lead to a collapse of many interdependent and interrelated businesses and industries.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

@Zhong Lu
 

Is it lack of trust or the herd (lemming) mentality? I’m not disagreeing with, just would like your opinion.

 

 

When Trump was talking up stocks, almost everyone in the Asian American community in our area was thinking "sell at the first sign of trouble."  I remember conversations where I was telling Vietnamese dudes "if the DOW has 3 big red days, sell by the end of the third day. That's the signal."  The more Trump talked up the stock market, the more we didn't believe in him.  Paid off for us, too.  

This administration cannot be trusted.  Whatever Trump supports, fails.  Look at agriculture, energy, and now the markets.  Frankly, not all of this is his fault, but even if he is just plain unlucky, well, Asian Americans are pretty superstitious.  

Point is: if some people are thinking this way, this means lots of other people are thinking this way, too. So at the first sign of trouble the majority cut and run.  You've got to, because if you don't, they'll sell before you.  That's why we had one of the fastest crashes in history.  I mean, other then a couple of bear market rallies, the market's dumped in a straight vertical line downwards.  It only took one month for 4 years of market gains to go poof.  So if you claim the media is biased, you're right.  But that doesn't mean we trust you guys.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Also, anyone who knows anything about finance knows that the last 10 years gains in the market was built on leverage and "heads I win, tails you lose" mentality. We're currently in the "tails you lose" component. The government today is just as corrupt as it was in the past.  Nothing has changed.  

Don't drink the cool-aid.  The only thing you can trust a government to do in a crisis is to lie.  Doesn't matter who is in charge.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Also, there's a cultural disconnect here. When people in the West talk about "herd mentalities" they generally imply it as an insult. "Oh he's just part of the herd.  Can't think for himself.  Etc. etc."

As I see it the herd mentality is neither good nor bad.  It simply is.  And if the herd runs in a certain direction, don't get in the way.