Why Trump Is Right to Re-Open the Economy

[UNC12345 + 171]

Yes, I should have chosen different terminology but always willing to hear from all viewpoints on the matter.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, UNC12345 said:

Yes, I should have chosen different terminology but always willing to hear from all viewpoints on the matter.

No worries, it is mostly a herd of wild cats here.  Feel free to have thick skin and laugh at absurdity.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

43 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope.  2 different people.

2 different addresses does not 2 different people make

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

2 different addresses does not 2 different people make

Now you're just trying to confuse us!

[Christian Oppenländer + 15]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I don't know about your medical bureaucracy's role in preventing experimental treatments. But it was up till Friday that both Italy and France PROHIBITED any of the promising treatments from being applied, and they were resisted in the US as well, both by regulators and internal bureaucracies of medical organizations. They still resist them and now even governors are intervening to prevent application of experimental treatments (MI), while others are running official tests (NY).

 

Treatments are a difficult topic which I am not very optimistic about. The serious and deadly consequences of Covid-19 are only indirectly caused by the virus, your own immune response is what is doing the damage - even after the virus itself is not replicating anymore. This means that any kind of antiviral medication must be given in the early stages of the illness, at a time where you can only guess which cases will become serious (age, smoking habits, obesity, pre-existing conditions). This in turn means that you need a large supply of the respective substance, and it has to be reasonably safe to give it even if there is only a certain probability of a serious Covid-19 condition emerging. Maybe the patient hasn't even been to a hospital yet and it is already become too late for effective treatment.

All available options for medication are no candy, and especially from a legal perspective one has to make sure to not inflict more harm than good. Most experimental treatments are in early stages, i.e. they work in a petri dish. Others are already available for different ailments and off-label use is explored, but studies on their usefulness are inconclusive at best. 

Take the French study on Chloroquine, for example. They didn't use randomized control groups, the one receiving treatment was in later stages of the illness. They argued that this would be a disadvantage for the medication and success in this group would show even more clearly that Cholorquine was effective. However, they were not measuring success by a reduction of clinical symptoms, but by testing on the virus concentration in the patient's throat. During the course of the illness, the virus concentration is always reduced in the throat and increases in the lungs. In combination with their incomparable control group, this resulted in a "false success story" of Cholorquine. Note that this doesn't mean it is not effective, it just means that this study Trump was referring to cannot make any conclusion on this question.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Christian Oppenländer

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

10 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Now you're just trying to confuse us!

IP addresses. I refer you back to the discussion of how CCP online operatives were ordered to proceed. If you've forgotten I could post a link here again if I can find it in my archives. They're specifically instructed to create multiple personas online, even arguing with each other to establish the illusion that they're multiple people. 

Frankfurter only comes here via VPN annonymizer, which means his home address is cloaked. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

46 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

2 different addresses does not 2 different people make

I've had messages with both people in the past to resolve issues.  Different writing styles, although similar ideology.

[timamtti + 17]

55% of covid patients in hospitals are under 65. So it's not only the pensioners who need hospital care.

The people who drive this "open the economy now" mantra don't seem to understand that if the virus is allowed to spread through the society without any slowing down (the social distancing that we're doing now) we'll run out of hospital beds and ventilators. So, even though the death rate is low for young people now that's only because they can be treated in hospitals. The only way to keep things that way is to slow down the spread of virus and eventually turn the infection rate below 1. That's not going to be possible if we return everything back to normal (kids go to school, people go to work, open bars, restaurants, gyms etc.).

Even Donald Trump has now got that and come to the mind that it's better to keep the restrictions in place to the end of April. So even if you don't want to listen to logic and reason, at least listen to your Dear Leader on this.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Christian Oppenländer said:

Take the French study on Chloroquine, for example. They didn't use randomized control groups, the one receiving treatment was in later stages of the illness. They argued that this would be a disadvantage for the medication and success in this group would show even more clearly that Cholorquine was effective. However, they were not measuring success by a reduction of clinical symptoms, but by testing on the virus concentration in the patient's throat. During the course of the illness, the virus concentration is always reduced in the throat and increases in the lungs. In combination with their incomparable control group, this resulted in a "false success story" of Cholorquine. Note that this doesn't mean it is not effective, it just means that this study Trump was referring to cannot make any conclusion on this question.

The second study had tested results from the lung (what folks coughed up). Virus in the lung responded more rapidly than virus in the naso pharyngial area. Day 5 had 94% reduction in the lug, 75% in the throat (from memory). There is nothing false in the story but for the criticism you are obviously quoting from . The criticism is meaningless and makes mountains out of mole hills. Applying this (HCQ/Z and antivirals) more broadly at the earliest symptoms is the way to go. Prophylactic use among doctors and some nurses is now very common. They will eventually have stats from them as to how many contract the virus and develop the disease (or not), particularly useful when they get antigen tests running. Don't let the medical community's idiotic expectations of what a treatment is sway you. This is scientific work. The results are clear cut. The medical community is looking for clinical results. Those results are dependent on clinical conditions at the time of administration - meaning the remaining function of the lungs. Which are no longer related to the virus. You can't expect the treatment for the fire to cure the burns. 

The comparable group is enormous and has easy stats to compare, sheer numbers make up for the lack of equal conditions. The insistence of ruling out tiny influences as throwing doubt on solid causally confirmed results is an intellectual illness of the medical profession. Since the treatments aim at the virus, as you say, they would do their best at the onset of the disease to prevent a hospitalization. That means short turnaround tests are far more useful, as opposed to the slow turnaround (e.g. of 210k tests in CA, 60k are waiting in ques) 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, timamtti said:

55% of covid patients in hospitals are under 65. So it's not only the pensioners who need hospital care.

The people who drive this "open the economy now" mantra don't seem to understand that if the virus is allowed to spread through the society without any slowing down (the social distancing that we're doing now) we'll run out of hospital beds and ventilators. So, even though the death rate is low for young people now that's only because they can be treated in hospitals. The only way to keep things that way is to slow down the spread of virus and eventually turn the infection rate below 1. That's not going to be possible if we return everything back to normal (kids go to school, people go to work, open bars, restaurants, gyms etc.).

Even Donald Trump has now got that and come to the mind that it's better to keep the restrictions in place to the end of April. So even if you don't want to listen to logic and reason, at least listen to your Dear Leader on this.

It is interesting how seemingly only Republican deplorables can sense when The Donald has pressed the trigger button once again. 😉😷

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, timamtti said:

55% of covid patients in hospitals are under 65. So it's not only the pensioners who need hospital care.

The people who drive this "open the economy now" mantra don't seem to understand that if the virus is allowed to spread through the society without any slowing down (the social distancing that we're doing now) we'll run out of hospital beds and ventilators. So, even though the death rate is low for young people now that's only because they can be treated in hospitals. The only way to keep things that way is to slow down the spread of virus and eventually turn the infection rate below 1. That's not going to be possible if we return everything back to normal (kids go to school, people go to work, open bars, restaurants, gyms etc.).

Even Donald Trump has now got that and come to the mind that it's better to keep the restrictions in place to the end of April. So even if you don't want to listen to logic and reason, at least listen to your Dear Leader on this.

Nobody is talking about going back to spring break and mass orgies on Bourbon Street. We are talking about going back to work while schools remain closed and events restricted, and to eliminate restrictions on car travel and parking in the city so that more people can avoid the super contagion conditions on public transport. Establish some sanitation practices at work and retail to avoid surface transmission. 

We are already there in the restriction of the disease propagation.

https://healthweather.us/

In most affected places, the disease peaked Mar 18 (NY NY county NY) 

West NY (in NJ) as example, has the highest density residential area in the country and among the top 100 in the world (more than Manhattan). 

In the rest of the country, there was no reach of covid 19 outside the big cities and now there is no seasonal flu either. Look for example at Sangamon Co. IL, where we drifted below the normal illness line of seasonal flu the moment we went on national distancing practices. Hey, we could have shut down the economy every flu season and prevented the 50K death toll of that. It only costs $2 Trillion a month and causes havoc and misery to 320 + million people. Obviously the right thing to do.

Seriously, the only people who have to be on the restricted lockdown are the big cities and the immediate counties around them. That may not be brotherly on the part of the rural and exurban population, but there is no reason for it to act like there are dragons outside, and dangerous man eating octopus at work.

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, UNC12345 said:

Bob D,

I won't get into who the articles were written by as I'm sure you'll then launch a full-on attack of the source and the "fake media".  So we'll just skip all that.  The fact that you used the term "zero evidence impeachment" to refer to your President leads me to believe that you are a part of the population I was referring to.

Just as a general question, why do so many in America have to be on the extreme end of every issue?  I see it in so many things.

Because we have been abused by well over a century of communist and socialist propaganda permeating unions, and thereby schools and government, entirely overtaking universities, controlling the Democratic party and the mainstream media. The country has divided strongly as pro and against. The lies coming out of the socialists have become easy to check and the fools who pay to be brainwashed at the socialist schools and subscribe to socialist media never bother to do so because they have been conditioned to  believe their drivel and the dogma spouted by social "experts" in peer reviewed journals who's only purpose is to suppress dissent from socialist dogma. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

IP addresses. I refer you back to the discussion of how CCP online operatives were ordered to proceed. If you've forgotten I could post a link here again if I can find it in my archives. They're specifically instructed to create multiple personas online, even arguing with each other to establish the illusion that they're multiple people. 

Frankfurter only comes here via VPN annonymizer, which means his home address is cloaked. 

No, I was just using any excuse to make a little joke. This guy is unbelievable. That's the problem with the Internet: people will say things they wouldn't dare say to another person's face. The level of attack is off-putting, to say the least. I've encountered pro-communist people before; most of them are about halfway reasonable in person. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

No, I was just using any excuse to make a little joke. This guy is unbelievable. That's the problem with the Internet: people will say things they wouldn't dare say to another person's face. The level of attack is off-putting, to say the least. I've encountered pro-communist people before; most of them are about halfway reasonable in person. 

It is remarkable, isn't it?  Some of these guys really seem like they believe what their communist/socialist masters are drilling into their heads.  "Go ye and infiltrate the enemy's websites, for they are the evil ones bent on destroying the Motherland."  I mean, if your spouse kept telling you how to divert attention away from a cheating spouse, wouldn't you start to question how your spouse knows all about it?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I've had messages with both people in the past to resolve issues.  Different writing styles, although similar ideology.

The training manual requires different writing styles to convince the unwary. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Nobody is talking about going back to spring break and mass orgies on Bourbon Street. We are talking about going back to work while schools remain closed and events restricted, and to eliminate restrictions on car travel and parking in the city so that more people can avoid the super contagion conditions on public transport. Establish some sanitation practices at work and retail to avoid surface transmission. 

We are already there in the restriction of the disease propagation.

https://healthweather.us/

In most affected places, the disease peaked Mar 18 (NY NY county NY) 

West NY (in NJ) as example, has the highest density residential area in the country and among the top 100 in the world (more than Manhattan). 

In the rest of the country, there was no reach of covid 19 outside the big cities and now there is no seasonal flu either. Look for example at Sangamon Co. IL, where we drifted below the normal illness line of seasonal flu the moment we went on national distancing practices. Hey, we could have shut down the economy every flu season and prevented the 50K death toll of that. It only costs $2 Trillion a month and causes havoc and misery to 320 + million people. Obviously the right thing to do.

Seriously, the only people who have to be on the restricted lockdown are the big cities and the immediate counties around them. That may not be brotherly on the part of the rural and exurban population, but there is no reason for it to act like there are dragons outside, and dangerous man eating octopus at work.

We can see here where the quarantine needs to be continued. We can also see the upcoming outbreak having started in Miami Miami Beach and Broward Co. FL Where things are going to get very bleak at the hospitals. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by 0R0

[timamtti + 17]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Nobody is talking about going back to spring break and mass orgies on Bourbon Street. We are talking about going back to work while schools remain closed and events restricted, and to eliminate restrictions on car travel and parking in the city so that more people can avoid the super contagion conditions on public transport. Establish some sanitation practices at work and retail to avoid surface transmission. 

We are already there in the restriction of the disease propagation.

https://healthweather.us/

In most affected places, the disease peaked Mar 18 (NY NY county NY) 

West NY (in NJ) as example, has the highest density residential area in the country and among the top 100 in the world (more than Manhattan). 

In the rest of the country, there was no reach of covid 19 outside the big cities and now there is no seasonal flu either. Look for example at Sangamon Co. IL, where we drifted below the normal illness line of seasonal flu the moment we went on national distancing practices. Hey, we could have shut down the economy every flu season and prevented the 50K death toll of that. It only costs $2 Trillion a month and causes havoc and misery to 320 + million people. Obviously the right thing to do.

Seriously, the only people who have to be on the restricted lockdown are the big cities and the immediate counties around them. That may not be brotherly on the part of the rural and exurban population, but there is no reason for it to act like there are dragons outside, and dangerous man eating octopus at work.

I'm not sure why you responded to my post as you didn't address any of the claims in there. I'd agree with you that if this were about saving 50k lives, it wouldn't make sense to keep everything closes. But it's 2.2 million according to Trump. 

If you open all the work, but keep kids home that's going to create a lot of headache to many parents (and you don't want to bring grandmas to look after them, that's what Italians did when government closed schools but left everything else normal).

And of course at this point the infections bother only the most densely populated areas. That's because only 0.05% have got the virus. But when the virus becomes ubiquitous, it's hard for the less densely populated areas to stay safe. But yes, I fully support trying to isolate full regions that have infections from the rest of the country when the infections have been driven down. At the moment that would be hopeless as the virus is too widespread

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 minutes ago, timamtti said:

I'm not sure why you responded to my post as you didn't address any of the claims in there. I'd agree with you that if this were about saving 50k lives, it wouldn't make sense to keep everything closes. But it's 2.2 million according to Trump. 

If you open all the work, but keep kids home that's going to create a lot of headache to many parents (and you don't want to bring grandmas to look after them, that's what Italians did when government closed schools but left everything else normal).

And of course at this point the infections bother only the most densely populated areas. That's because only 0.05% have got the virus. But when the virus becomes ubiquitous, it's hard for the less densely populated areas to stay safe. But yes, I fully support trying to isolate full regions that have infections from the rest of the country when the infections have been driven down. At the moment that would be hopeless as the virus is too widespread

I was responding to the particular points you raised.

The spread is not 0.05%. People coming in for testing with what would normally be flu symptoms are testing 35% in NY state, positive for CV 19 thus in NYC metro is now testing >45% infected. It means that with the Diamond Princess symptomatics ratio that would be about 55% of the people carrying the virus, so 45/55=81% of NY would be carrying the virus. 

Exposure rates in the lower density states are largely in the big cities and their immediate suburbs and range from 3% to more typically 8% where there is one large city in the state. 10-13% for a state with a real Metro area. 

At this point we have most of NYC already immune. But a majority are not yet at the point where they stop shedding virus, about 4 weeks from infection. 

Elevated temperature starts among the symptomatics usually 2-4 days from infection. The initial jump in an elevated % of the people checking their Temp registering a fever was on Mar 4 in NYC. Meaning they were infected Feb 28-Mar 1, which we can call the first large wave. By the week of 3/9 people were mostly working at home rather than the office, and restaurants were empty. Kids at home from school. Thus after rising steadily to 2.7% above normal reading fevers on Mar 14, the measure stayed flat till 3.17, when it peaked at 2.9% more than normal measurements reading fevers. Meaning that peak infections was on Mar 9-14. The % having fever fell rapidly from there and is now normal for the season, while that would be expected to indicate a lack of recent covid 19 infections, it may also simply indicate fewer cases of flu. As places where social distancing was practiced while there was no covid19 have dropped to 2-3% below normal measuring high temperatures since distancing also killed off the flu. 

The number of people showing up with covid 19 will drop rapidly from here in NYC as those who stop measuring elevated temps. are either recovered or in the hospital where their temp is no longer measured to their Cell Phone. The rise in hospitalizations ramped up rapidly from the 17th, 13 days after the initial pop in % with high temps. so the drop in cases testing positive should show up about 13-14 days from the 17th, or just about now. Falling slowly as the chart below shows.  Then falling more rapidly.

https://healthweather.us/

 

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

21 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Anything shocks the British public, they have the IQ of a goldfish

Now, now. That only applies to Sunderland fans... 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Sunderland...isn’t that a cricket team?😂

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

One reason for successes in Asia https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-could-travel-27-feet-stay-in-air-for-hours-mit-researcher/ Masks are very important also. We should all me wearing mask if out and about! 

Masks are pretty awful as a defence from getting the virus as when they become moist they stop being of much use. If you have The virus then it does help to stop you spreading it.

Trump stating wearing scarves will help is way off the mark!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Post virus fashion will be designer hazmat suits!

[Christian Oppenländer + 15]

10 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The second study had tested results from the lung (what folks coughed up). Virus in the lung responded more rapidly than virus in the naso pharyngial area. Day 5 had 94% reduction in the lug, 75% in the throat (from memory). There is nothing false in the story but for the criticism you are obviously quoting from . The criticism is meaningless and makes mountains out of mole hills. Applying this (HCQ/Z and antivirals) more broadly at the earliest symptoms is the way to go. Prophylactic use among doctors and some nurses is now very common. They will eventually have stats from them as to how many contract the virus and develop the disease (or not), particularly useful when they get antigen tests running. Don't let the medical community's idiotic expectations of what a treatment is sway you. This is scientific work. The results are clear cut. The medical community is looking for clinical results. Those results are dependent on clinical conditions at the time of administration - meaning the remaining function of the lungs. Which are no longer related to the virus. You can't expect the treatment for the fire to cure the burns. 

The comparable group is enormous and has easy stats to compare, sheer numbers make up for the lack of equal conditions. The insistence of ruling out tiny influences as throwing doubt on solid causally confirmed results is an intellectual illness of the medical profession. Since the treatments aim at the virus, as you say, they would do their best at the onset of the disease to prevent a hospitalization. That means short turnaround tests are far more useful, as opposed to the slow turnaround (e.g. of 210k tests in CA, 60k are waiting in ques) 

Maybe I should have included my sources, but I wasn't going to make this a serious discussion. I only wanted to help with some info, as I am kind of bored due to our social distancing restrictions.

Let me just add: I am (or used to be) a scientist myself, but of a different field (physics). From my own experience I know that in order to form a completely new opinion on such matters, you have to be an expert in exactly the topic at hand. I didn't even know what they guy next to me at the university was doing (in detail), despite working in the same subsection of our field. That's why I made it a habit to look for the foremost experts on any given thing (or sometimes more than one) and simply adapt their viewpoint, trusting their verdict. I would never dare to form my own opinion on science topics of another field, despite having read some papers on them. I can only recommend handling it this way.

In the case of my statements before, they have been adapted from Christian Drosten. The research topic of his team at our best university hospital (the "Charité") is exactly new emerging viruses, especially coronaviruses. His team developed the first working test on SARS2-CoV19, was the first to sequence its genome, he is co-credited for the identification of SARS1 and was also working on MERS. He is also a stoical, apolitical figure, so I trust his opinions. I am following them daily, so to the best of my knowledge, my claims still hold. Of course you are free to dismiss them.

It is interesting to see the "republicans vs socialists" discussions first-hand. I know the rifts are deep here, but maybe it would help looking beyond the US for a clearer picture.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Christian Oppenländer

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Feature article worth reading, in my opinion.  Anticipate screeching in response from the CCP supporters here.

Please do take note the vast and significant difference between China and the Chinese Communist Party.  I have no issue with Chinese people, but I do have a serious issue with the CCP.

The Chinese Communist Party v America

In wars, men die.

President Trump has taken bold and decisive steps to stop the spread of the Wuhan virus across America. In doing so, he has become a wartime president. But the enemy he is fighting is the Chinese Communist Party. Long before this crisis, the CCP was waging political and economic war against the United States. The Wuhan virus is merely another weapon in this war. As a nation we need to understand this immediately, since the first casualty has been the material well-being of the American people.  ...

... A Mighty Sea

Although the origin of the virus may be unknowable for now, the Chinese response was unambiguous. The CCP’s Xinhua news service threatened Americans that they could plunge us into a “mighty sea of coronavirus” since it was they who controlled the supply chain for the active pharmaceutical ingredients used in the production of 90% of our medicines.

This overt threat to the security of the American people was followed by a government spokesman propagating the lie that the U.S. military created and spread the virus in Wuhan. Their intelligence services also pushed the narrative that they did not even know where the virus came from, that it was likely an invention of the CIA, and that the world should be thankful for the CCP’s quick response. In war, this is what propaganda looks like.

What Didn’t Happen

Consider the possible alternatives. When the virus broke out, the CCP could have immediately given open access to the United States and other countries with advanced healthcare systems in the hopes of trying to save lives both in China and those countries around the world that would inevitably be exposed to the virus. Open access would have been a signal to the world that China was a responsible global actor concerned about both the welfare of its own people and those of the world. Such action would have clearly communicated that our shared prosperity and well-being would require a global response.

The United States and the world would have opened their arms and their laboratories to help China get through this awful mess as quickly as possible. Each nation’s own self-interest would have dictated as much. Instead the CCP did the exact opposite. The United States was denied access and uncertainty about the virus increased dramatically throughout the world.

This uncertainty has led to greater fear and animosity about the lethality of the Wuhan virus than was necessary. So far the virus seems to impact different populations in different ways. It’s not yet clear exactly what threat profile it presents to America as a whole. But the fact that we don’t know has led us to err on the side of caution and treat this virus like a 1918-level event. The consequence has been a shutdown of the largest economy in the world.

Without putting too fine a point on it, China seems to have taken the position that if they were to suffer the coronavirus, so too was the United States and the rest of the world. What else is to explain the continuation of flights from China to the United States at the rate of some 20,000 passengers a day, until President Trump wisely shut them down?  ...

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Tom don't you ever sleep?