Why Trump Is Right to Re-Open the Economy

[0R0 + 6,251]

 

Bill Ackman posts his statistics staff's new estimate for R0 with a distribution of measured rates

I believe it is a function of regional population density, public transport as % of commuting and temperature and humidity (reduce R0)

Again, the Chinese authorities and their puppet WHO published deliberately wrong data to have the West accept its distribution of the virus globally without reaction to contain it via air travel. Their published R0 of 1.5-2.5 was deliberately wrong. Their early publication of R0 at 2.6 at most was also a severe underestimate, which I am certain they knew. 

https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/1247873179391012864/photo/1

Edited April 10, 2020 by 0R0

[Marcin2 + 725]

On 4/9/2020 at 3:21 AM, timamtti said:

Thanks. Regarding the Trump cult, we're in an interesting experiment. Trump changed his stance quite radically with COVID-19 from "we don't have to care about it" to "this is a national emergency, we'll have to keep the country closed at least to the end of April". That has dropped the cult members in an interesting void. Should they continue on a stance of downplaying the threat that they adopted when Trump was on that side and resist all the restrictions for people's movements and gatherings or rally behind Trump and support his actions. It's a horrible cognitive dissonance that is wrecking their brains probably worse than any other effects of the epidemic. 

It is a cult, Trump flips, they flip too, so Fortunately their minds are not polluted by congnitive dissonance.

Now, there is belief that all the misery in US is caused by Chinese communists domestic cover up of virus seriousness in early January 2020.

I am Polish not American, and at this forum since September 2019 so till CoVID19 it was at times fascinating to observe otherwise fantastic and smart people under influence of something that looked like bad spell.

After CoVID19 and all the casualties in US and real hate I observe towards culprits - Chinese it No longer is interesting, but just frightening.

Look at older threads, observe their radicalization, for a European , this reminds me well known other country in early 1930s.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

It is a cult, Trump flips, they flip too, so Fortunately their minds are not polluted by congnitive dissonance.

Now, there is belief that all the misery in US is caused by Chinese communists domestic cover up of virus seriousness in early January 2020.

I am Polish not American, and at this forum since September 2019 so till CoVID19 it was at times fascinating to observe otherwise fantastic and smart people under influence of something that looked like bad spell.

After CoVID19 and all the casualties in US and real hate I observe towards culprits - Chinese it No longer is interesting, but just frightening.

Look at older threads, observe their radicalization, for a European , this reminds me well known other country in early 1930s.

It must be scary being an authority on everything....

[wrs + 893]

12 hours ago, Ron Ron said:

So you want to see our healthcare system overrun like in Spain, Northern Italy and NYC. In western Washington, California, Germany and Austria social distancing seems to have worked to flatten the curve. Austria which responded early with social distancing is about to restart their economy. 

Who says that will happen everywhere?  We are not having much of an issue at all with this where I live. People are more spread out. I hate NYC and places like it where people are crammed in on top of one another.  I live in a city but it's a much more spread out.  We have 650 cases here in Travis county with a population of 1.3m.  That's insignificant and you can bet the virus was here well before all this "social distancing" was imposed.

[timamtti + 17]

16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I keep pointing out that the infection rate or virus penetration has to be far higher than the positive tests of symptomatic patients would show. That could not yet be measured directly till antibody tests are ubiquitous. It can be estimated in round about ways from the behavior of the multiple annual flue pandemics and from temperature anomaly data. You keep insisting that only the direct evidence  AFTER it is measured in 2021 is useful and everything else amounts to nothing.

I have not said anything about "direct evidence". If you have irrefutable evidence other than antibodies that proves that the infection rate is completely different than what other people say, then go on and publish it. As I said, if you're correct and have developed a quick and reliable way to estimate infections in a pandemic, you would be publishing probably the most influential paper in this decade.  

Of if you're just lazy, send it to CDC or New York State who I'm sure would be desperate to have this information. I'm sure they have people who can take advantage of your model and adjust their models. You're wasting your time "pointing it out" in some random internet discussion group. The GDP of New York is about $1.5T. A single day of that is $4 billion. That gives you a sense what the cost of lock down there is and how much they would save if they could open up after Easter rather than at the end of April. The only thing that would stop Cuomo from taking advantage of your vast knowledge would be a conspiracy. I'm sure there is no such thing, oh wait... 

16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I would say that there is no amount of rational demonstration and fact that will dislodge the Gates and Pharma crowd and their moochers in congress and the medical bureaucracy from their hard grasp on benefiting from the gravytrain of sales of a vaccine that can't at all have a benefit if the actually cured don't have  that same benefit, and that despite no SARS vaccine having been successful in 15+ years of development and testing. 

Oh, ok a conspiracy theory. I forgot that you were in that train. I don't know what Gates does in that theory as he already has more money that he wants to spend in his lifetime and is giving most of it away. So in your mind Gates wants to get money from the vaccine so that he can give it away. Smart. 

What about your last Trump card namely Trump? I'm sure he would take your half-baked data as he keeps taking other such things as suggesting using non-FDA approved medicine for treating patients. Why don't you send your data to him? 

16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Thanks to folks like you throwing stones at my work, I have more certainty that I have a good handle on what is going on.

You're welcome. So you got your peer-review for free. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by timamtti

[timamtti + 17]

On 4/8/2020 at 8:14 PM, 0R0 said:

I am saying that my analysis is an order of magnitude more complex than the R0 based epidemiological models. Meaning that the order of magnitude of work I would have to do on my own in order to deliver a "bulletproof" presentation would require years of work.

What bullet holes are there in your work then? 

I'm not sure why you would need your work to be bulletproof? If you look at the scientifically published stuff coming out of the pandemic a lot of that is "this is preliminary data, we'll need more data to get the final truth". 

That's how it is with almost everything in science. Everything advances incrementally with first coming out ideas and preliminary supporting data for it and then usually much later confirmation by other researchers of the theory. Not knowing that shows that you have never done any scientific publishing. 

[timamtti + 17]

On 4/8/2020 at 9:38 PM, 0R0 said:

For comparison, Milan, at the center of the Italian outbreak is 19,391

So, since Italy is about 2 weeks ahead of the US, Milan could open up just as well and nobody would get sick as they all have had the virus already. Have you sent your data to the city officials there? 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

@timamtti  so far, all 13 of your comments on this entire forum have been comments in this thread only.  

Mostly negative comments as well, in my opinion. 

You are free to continue your comment strategy; carry on.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Marlene45MAGA/status/1248561838801006592

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

https://thedonald.win/p/FMXclP07/nurses-response-to-gov-witmers-l/c/

 

[timamtti + 17]

On 4/8/2020 at 9:55 PM, 0R0 said:

It worked because they quarantined a hard lockdown 782 million people in residential buildings where one case was reported in a building.

But if you don't detect the cases then that doesn't work. Could you also give a source for this information? I believe Wuhan had a very radical lockdown, but I haven't found anything similar to applied to other cities. 

Here is one article from early February, which would be the same time as the disease would be spreading in other cities. That mentions 1000 confirmed cases in Guangdong. Your models and your distrust to Chinese numbers would put this of course way way higher. And still there was no Wuhan style lockdown. People were still not blocked from leaving the infected provinces let alone locked down to their houses. People are monitored for temperature, but you said that the vast majority of cases have no symptoms, so it wouldn't even work except for some cases. 

This article says that people are not allowed to eat in restaurants and that's unprecedented. But that's the same thing as what's going on everywhere in the West. That article also mentions that the lockdown is partial and that it applies to 500 million, not 782 million. According to this, complete lockdown applied to less than 100 million. That also mentions the 500 million number for the partial lockdown. 

You have mentioned public transport as the main reason for the virus to spread in New York. According to this, public transport continued operating normally in Chinese megacities outside of Hubei. Why didn't it spread in them as it spread (according to you) in New York? 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,133]

Why other Chinese cities ok?  Intra Travel inside China is Low other than the sole exception of Chinese New Year and then the people travel from Big cities INTO the countryside where they are not in much contact.  During Chinese New Year, you could have drag races on every street in every major city and absolutely no one would hear you do it as the cities are nearly empty.  Authoritarian govs do have some advantages.  Also everyone in China is used to turning in their neighbors for survival and the people from Wuhan/Hubei were hunted down and forced to quarantine.

EDIT: Biggest advantage?  China has such piss poor air quality everyone wears masks everywhere so even if they are assymptomatic they will more than likely NOT be spreading the disease.  Now add that everyone knew of this disease forcing everyone to wear masks for self preservation?  Double ++  

IS any of the above true in the West?  No. No one in the west even owns a mask other than construction workers/those in manufacturing/painting.

Edited April 10, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

@timamtti  so far, all 13 of your comments on this entire forum have been comments in this thread only.  

Mostly negative comments as well, in my opinion. 

You are free to continue your comment strategy; carry on.

 

You keep 'em in check @Tom Kirkman hehehe. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, timamtti said:

But if you don't detect the cases then that doesn't work. Could you also give a source for this information? I believe Wuhan had a very radical lockdown, but I haven't found anything similar to applied to other cities. 

Here is one article from early February, which would be the same time as the disease would be spreading in other cities. That mentions 1000 confirmed cases in Guangdong. Your models and your distrust to Chinese numbers would put this of course way way higher. And still there was no Wuhan style lockdown. People were still not blocked from leaving the infected provinces let alone locked down to their houses. People are monitored for temperature, but you said that the vast majority of cases have no symptoms, so it wouldn't even work except for some cases. 

This article says that people are not allowed to eat in restaurants and that's unprecedented. But that's the same thing as what's going on everywhere in the West. That article also mentions that the lockdown is partial and that it applies to 500 million, not 782 million. According to this, complete lockdown applied to less than 100 million. That also mentions the 500 million number for the partial lockdown. 

You have mentioned public transport as the main reason for the virus to spread in New York. According to this, public transport continued operating normally in Chinese megacities outside of Hubei. Why didn't it spread in them as it spread (according to you) in New York? 

I don't have the source on hand, but you can look through the CV19 threads here. It was posted. The policy was specified publicly, by the end of the implementation it was 782 million residents in quarantine. They didn't quarantine by region or province but by building. It was not applied by city.

Again, the strongest action taken by the Chinese on this was on tracking contacts. The early stage was to simply assume that anyone in an apartment building with one case could have been exposed in the elevator or stairwell or by the entry door or on the bus or subway on the way in. At the  later stages they would track the cell phone records so that if you were pinged sitting next to a confirmed case on a plane or train long enough you would get a text telling you to quarantine yourself and get tested. 

The numbers that resulted were not a deliberate target, but just the consequence. I don't know if it was 782 million cumulative or at one time. I would imagine it is the cumulative figure, as I had seen your references before. And they estimate the peak in quarantines at one time. 

As we discussed about Korea and Singapore and Taiwan, they used contact tracking to quarantine and test the contact chain, thus the rest of the population could be on minimal lockdown or just free to go. That is the main benefit of the contact chain tracing. If you quarantine it, then you can let everyone else go and work from home and use personal protection to reduce transmission. That was what allowed China to reopen the economy once manufacturing etc. had masks and gloves made. Foxcon started their reopening by making masks in sufficient quantity for their entire staff.

The public transport in big cities, and in China cities are big, is necessary for their function. If the people were walking the streets, there would be only enough space to have them shoulder to shoulder. Even if you were just sending one person per household to work, there would not be enough space on the street during rush hour to keep outside the 6ft distancing spec.. So public transport has to continue. It is just a question of how to keep transmission down - with PPE etc. staggered scheduling so that density in public transport has you exposed to one or two neighbors rather than 6 or 7. High speed Rail  and plane traffic was maintained at one person per row in the dual row cabins. I didn't check to see if they reduced that requirement. I expect they would have gone to standard service by now. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, timamtti said:

What bullet holes are there in your work then? 

I'm not sure why you would need your work to be bulletproof? If you look at the scientifically published stuff coming out of the pandemic a lot of that is "this is preliminary data, we'll need more data to get the final truth". 

That's how it is with almost everything in science. Everything advances incrementally with first coming out ideas and preliminary supporting data for it and then usually much later confirmation by other researchers of the theory. Not knowing that shows that you have never done any scientific publishing. 

You are welcome to do it. 

The stats teams in the banks and hedge funds can do this with far more resources at their hands. 

[timamtti + 17]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

You are welcome to do it. 

The stats teams in the banks and hedge funds can do this with far more resources at their hands. 

You didn't answer my question. You said that your analysis is not bulletproof but refused to list bullet holes in it. 

I will send your stuff to CDC if you write it in an understandable format instead of being incoherent ramblings spread around internet discussion boards. Especially your temperature data needs to be better documented as, if I understand correctly, everything depends on that being correct. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, wrs said:

Who says that will happen everywhere?  We are not having much of an issue at all with this where I live. People are more spread out. I hate NYC and places like it where people are crammed in on top of one another.  I live in a city but it's a much more spread out.  We have 650 cases here in Travis county with a population of 1.3m.  That's insignificant and you can bet the virus was here well before all this "social distancing" was imposed.

Social distancing works to restrict virus propagation to a small trickle with overall active infections falling. Symptomatic tests will not show the change till about 2 weeks later. 

In low density urban environments you need PPE on public transport and restrict school gatherings and mass congregations to control the spread, but it is far slower than it is in high density areas. But unrestricted conduct did result in expanding numbers in e.g. West Michigan. They never reached clogged hospitals as they did in Detroit, but distribution of positive tests is relatively high. 

I am convinced as you are, that we should just go on with business as usual with an effort to restrict transmission via PPE (masks and gloves) and serious efforts at sanitation at work and retail. And avoiding crowded conditions, which is hard in the dense center city.

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 minutes ago, timamtti said:

You didn't answer my question. You said that your analysis is not bulletproof but refused to list bullet holes in it. 

I will send your stuff to CDC if you write it in an understandable format instead of being incoherent ramblings spread around internet discussion boards. Especially your temperature data needs to be better documented as, if I understand correctly, everything depends on that being correct. 

I said it is not bullet proof. Not that it has bullet holes. Hence I thought you were making a joke.

The temp data is widely distributed thermometers sending measurement data to Kinsa's database via cell phones. Kinsa does share detailed databases with public health organizations. For my own purposes, I don't need to verify the statistic validity of every figure and its representation of the county by county populations, others can do so if it is important for their work. It is one of the areas where I am not "bulletproof".  

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

It is a cult, Trump flips, they flip too, so Fortunately their minds are not polluted by congnitive dissonance.

Now, there is belief that all the misery in US is caused by Chinese communists domestic cover up of virus seriousness in early January 2020.

I am Polish not American, and at this forum since September 2019 so till CoVID19 it was at times fascinating to observe otherwise fantastic and smart people under influence of something that looked like bad spell.

After CoVID19 and all the casualties in US and real hate I observe towards culprits - Chinese it No longer is interesting, but just frightening.

Look at older threads, observe their radicalization, for a European , this reminds me well known other country in early 1930s.

Trumpists do not take the same view you have of governments. The president and the various agencies are viewed as opposing forces. They are deliberately structured to be immune to the power of the president. This is exactly the opposite of the parliamentary systems in Europe. Few independent agencies are immune to a coalition government's reach. 

Trump was elected to fight against "the swamp" which includes the government agencies and congressional committees that control them, particularly on the Democratic party side. As far as Trumpists are concerned, the CCP is roughly equal to CDC and FDA and hospital insurance and drug company managements and Democratic governors and congressional Democrats. The CCP is only substantially worse, the others are "of a kind". 

Trump is allowed to flip flop. It isn't his particular stances that get him votes, it is his stance against "the swamp".

In parliamentary systems and in the EC regulatory structure "the swamp" is centered at the EC where nobody can affect it via an election in any one or several countries. The Brits got fed up with it and left. I am sure the rest of Europe will abandon it too. The South will radicalize the ECB's monetary policy to the point of printing up enough inflation to scare Germany out of the system. France will probably side with the South as it is more leveraged than others. 

[timamtti + 17]

8 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

They are deliberately structured to be immune to the power of the president.

So, Trump couldn't actually fire the CDC pandemic response team? So, why is it not there as it was there during Obama?

 

16 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

This is exactly the opposite of the parliamentary systems in Europe. Few independent agencies are immune to a coalition government's reach. 

Where did you get this? When there is a transition of power in European countries, the heads of different agencies don't usually get fired like in the US. In the US, Trump has put his cronies in place of leading several agencies. 

[timamtti + 17]

46 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The temp data is widely distributed thermometers sending measurement data to Kinsa's database via cell phones.

This is what Kinsa CEO says about what their temperature data is saying about the US: "Social Distancing is Working" and "our data shows that recent restrictive measures and the widespread efforts of New Yorkers to follow them are paying off and slowing COVID-19 spread"

Why he (who probably knows what their thermometers are actually measuring and how that relates to the health of people) gives so different message than you? Your message was that in New York the social distancing made no difference as pretty much everyone got the virus anyway. Whose message is "bulletproof"?

You should at least send your analysis to him (or someone else in Kinsa) as they would be much better comment it than random people in the internet discussion group. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by timamtti

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 4/2/2020 at 12:52 PM, D Coyne said:

Bob,

One only needs to watch him speak,  you did hear that Trump said the covid19 epidemic was a liberal hoax, right?

 

His words. 

You're lying. His exact words concerned the DNC claiming that he had done nothing about the virus being another one of their hoaxes like the Russian hoax and the phone call hoax. Your TDS is showing, and not in a good light. 

[redfishun@yahoo.com 0]

All the projections are very far off.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, timamtti said:

This is what Kinsa CEO says about what their temperature data is saying about the US: "Social Distancing is Working" and "our data shows that recent restrictive measures and the widespread efforts of New Yorkers to follow them are paying off and slowing COVID-19 spread"

Why he (who probably knows what their thermometers are actually measuring and how that relates to the health of people) gives so different message than you? Your message was that in New York the social distancing made no difference as pretty much everyone got the virus anyway. Whose message is "bulletproof"?

You should at least send your analysis to him (or someone else in Kinsa) as they would be much better comment it than random people in the internet discussion group. 

Just who the hell do you think you are? You're nobody and nothing. @0R0 isn't answerable to you. I just suspect you're another sock puppet account trying to chase off one of the better minds here. Your mind on the other hand? Pedestrian on a good day. 

[timamtti + 17]

9 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Just who the hell do you think you are?

I'm a person writing in an internet discussion group just like @0R0. Nobody here is "answerable" to anyone. On the other hand, people are allowed to challenge claims made by other writers as long as it stays in topic.

Your post was a pure personal attack against me that contributed nothing to the discussion about coronavirus that I was discussing with @0R0. 

I was encouraging @0R0 to publish his analysis as it would be quite ground-breaking as it would show a completely different picture of the coronavirus than what is told by CDC for instance. He didn't want to do that. His analysis is based on the temperature data from Kinsa and the Kinsa CEO has published his own analysis of the situation based on the exact same data. It would be very useful if these two talked to each other and compared notes rather than this being buried here in anonymous posts in an obscure discussion board. 

Maybe you don't understand that the value of this analysis, if correct, is far far greater than any discussion here. That's why I'm encouraging him to publish it wider. 

If I can "chase off" @0R0 to show his analysis to CDC or at least Kinsa and if his analysis turns out to be correct and Kinsa CEO's wrong, then I've achieved much more than you will ever do in your life. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by timamtti