How to Create a Pandemic

[GunnysGhost + 157]

In-laws retired to Myrtle (doesn't everyone?) 

In 2018 there was a hurricane which did flood a few houses.  So in 2019, the media made an approaching hurricane sound like SuperStorm Sandy part II.  Everyone evacuated because of media hype.

Storm was a dud. 

 

So what happens if C-19 is still a strain hanging around in 2021?

What if, like influenza, we get a new C-19 level infectious disease every 5 years?  2 years?  YEARLY? 
It's now a thing.  It's not going to go away.  We are slowing its spread, not 'killing it'.  It will eventually infect half the world. 

Are we just not going to have an economy?

It's still going to be around.  One day in the future, you or I could end up with C-19 strain or one of its mutated offshoots.  This is now a part of the world we live in.  So are we gonna live or lay down and die?  We're doing the virus' work for it.

 

When does not having an income start causing premature deaths?  When does it outpace the virus? 

In a recession, do we measure the number of people who die at 60 instead of 70 because of lethargy and poor nutritional intake?

 

So yes, its overblown.  Doesn't matter if its real or not.  It's overblown. 

The middle and working classes will be far more devastated by a 6-month shutdown than they ever would have been by this Class 2 hurricane of a virus. 

 

Cheers.

 

 

 

[Qanoil + 116]

Stay skeptical.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stillgray/status/1245207986080907264

[BillKidd + 139]

Michael Osterholm is an infectious disease expert associated with the University of Minnesota. Seems a very credible person. I first saw him interviewed at length on the Joe Rogan videocast a couple weeks ago. I saw some tv show or video in the last 48 hours (can't find it) where he said he doesn't understand ONLY 200k deaths. I think he basically said he figures half of the USA will get it. Vast majority will be okay but at 1% death rate, that's 1.6 million dead. He also said it will likely be a problem for years, not months. Mentioned the 1918 flu killing into 1920.

This is not the video I saw but this is him and he's saying there will be severe shortage of tests...

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by BillKidd

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 4/3/2020 at 9:20 AM, GunnysGhost said:

In-laws retired to Myrtle (doesn't everyone?) 

In 2018 there was a hurricane which did flood a few houses.  So in 2019, the media made an approaching hurricane sound like SuperStorm Sandy part II.  Everyone evacuated because of media hype.

Storm was a dud. 

 

So what happens if C-19 is still a strain hanging around in 2021?

What if, like influenza, we get a new C-19 level infectious disease every 5 years?  2 years?  YEARLY? 
It's now a thing.  It's not going to go away.  We are slowing its spread, not 'killing it'.  It will eventually infect half the world. 

Are we just not going to have an economy?

It's still going to be around.  One day in the future, you or I could end up with C-19 strain or one of its mutated offshoots.  This is now a part of the world we live in.  So are we gonna live or lay down and die?  We're doing the virus' work for it.

 

When does not having an income start causing premature deaths?  When does it outpace the virus? 

In a recession, do we measure the number of people who die at 60 instead of 70 because of lethargy and poor nutritional intake?

 

So yes, its overblown.  Doesn't matter if its real or not.  It's overblown. 

The middle and working classes will be far more devastated by a 6-month shutdown than they ever would have been by this Class 2 hurricane of a virus. 

 

Cheers.

 

 

 

Exactly the point, this is costing the equivalent of >700,000 lifetime incomes a month for the quarantine. That is FOR SURE. The deaths expected can be substantially attenuated by physical distancing masks and gloves. But the total shutdown is a severe over-reaction that is an exercise in power over intelligence or moral reasoning. So we are talking about MAYBE deaths that will largely happen anyway vs. economic death that will lead to future deaths because of all the resources we didn't produce while in lockdown. Because of the financial resources we didn't generate out of incomes during that time.

There was no reason to do a quarantine of this sort. We want to attenuate the spread.  Not stop it. We want most people to be exposed to the virus. It is only the ill and elderly that are at high risk that we need to protect. Yet nobody is making the slightest differentiation. If anything, the media highlights the statistical oddities of young and healthy that succumb to the disease, rather than  highlighting the statistics. 

To the degree that there is success in halting the spread and "saving lives", the uninfected will all be ready to go with the next outbreak, as there is no community immunity to stop the spread the next time. Only NYC metro at well over 50% infection will have it. Michigan would, but CA would only be 20-30% immune, Washington (Seattle) at 8% many cities at less than 20% and the broad suburbia and rural areas particularly in the interior would not be immune at all, as infection rates are in the low single digit %. The goal of the quarantine is useless. We want to spread the virus slowly enough among the young and young adults so that the at risk population is not all taken ill at the same time. The young and their parents who tend to pass along infections will pass on the next breakout if they are not immune. We want to protect the vulnerable with a hard quarantine of them.

In Italy, the soft quarantine ended up with kids out of school and being sent to their grandparents. That mated the most likely to be infected with the most likely to die of it, making the optimally worst possible result. Now with India's quarantine, it had the perverse result of sending 4-500 million migrants in the cities back home to their multigenerational family homes where they will infect their vulnerable elders. Again creating the worst possible outcome. The old and infirm will die without any available care in rural India. 

 

There is an inverse relationship between what you see in the overrun hospitals and the reality of the infection still progressing as you run through the minority uninfected population. There is no point in quarantine when as many as will be infected are already immune. At that point you just need to let the rest of the low risk population to get exposed and get it over with. 

The quarantine order was too late because there was no testing available. If it had come early in March, it would have been enough to limit the scale, and penetration of the infection. NYC would not have thousands dead. 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Very thoughtful analysis, clearly correct in many ways. I have a comment, then a little historical perspective.  

We are up against the wall. This thing has clearly gone parabolic in NYC, New Jersey, St. John the Baptist parish close to Baton Rouge. Why?

Like you say, it didn't get stopped when the infected count was 30 or 40. Since each infected person infects another 20, it truly does enter an exponential framework of spread, and before you can imagine it, the thing is everywhere. 

Herd immunity is going to come slowly and at great cost. While the solution is probably multivariate--HCQ/Z, other drugs used in cancer--the real answer lies only in the prompt development of an effective vaccine. Therein lies a giant conundrum: vaccines are notoriously slow in the making. The FDA makes them jump through the hoops. The reason for this was the first influenza vaccine. It went to the troops first (Vietnam was still going strong). At any VA Hospital in 1971-'72 you'd find all sorts of soldiers on ventilators for the treatment of Guillan-Barre Syndrome secondary to the influenza vaccine. Quite a number died.

Still, with something like COVID on the loose, I hope the president will push along a messenger-RNA vaccine. Several companies have vaccines: Inovio, Moderna, JNJ. They say they work. Moderna has vaccinated 45 people in Seattle. Inovio's Dr. Joseph Kim has China ties and likely has a big trial going on over there. The Chinese could easily mass produce it and vaccinate their entire population before we even knew it was happening. For the first time in history, if the United States dithers while other countries vaccinate, we stand the distinct risk of putting ourselves in a geopolitical/economic disadvantage. 

The country has to be opened up again very soon. I'm no economist but I see the economic impact of this pandemic every day . . . well, to be truthful I mostly read about it. But anyone knows that 20% unemployment with the kind of debt we now have is the recipe of ruin. I think that even though we'd like not to see another horrible reaction like the Influenza vaccine of 1972, we're going to have to hurry this vaccine through Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials, underwrite the production of millions of doses (providing phase 1 looks as good as they suggest) and get the vaccine first to doctors and nurses and first-responders, then the work force, finally to the most vulnerable. The economy is job-1. No matter which company wins out, the president should enact the War Powers Act to get every pharmaceutical house to making this vaccine. Our future as a country depends on it. 

My greatest fear is that our doctors, nurses, morticians, first responders fall in large numbers in the next two weeks as peak death comes. If there are no services, no one to decide the ventilators and the Hydroxychloroquine, chaos isn't far behind. We're close.

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 hours ago, BillKidd said:

Michael Osterholm is an infectious disease expert associated with the University of Minnesota. Seems a very credible person. I first saw him interviewed at length on the Joe Rogan videocast a couple weeks ago. I saw some tv show or video in the last 48 hours (can't find it) where he said he doesn't understand ONLY 200k deaths. I think he basically said he figures half of the USA will get it. Vast majority will be okay but at 1% death rate, that's 1.6 million dead. He also said it will likely be a problem for years, not months. Mentioned the 1918 flu killing into 1920.

This is not the video I saw but this is him and he's saying there will be severe shortage of tests...

 

Perhaps he is ignorant of how the US is structured geographically, and thinks New York City is representative of the country. But the country is mostly suburban.  The cities are not large and are built relatively flat except at their cores. Public transport is limited to those cores and immediate areas around them. Thus NYC does very much get well over 50% infections. Michigan, with the late imposition of quarantine also has a very high rate of infection because schools are superspreaders and continued going til the last minute. Just as the subway in NY metro had continued being a superspreader while work continued.

The moment schoolchildren and their parents were set off from the rest of society, then the rate of spread was near nothing. 

The guy is describing the possible impact of a second wave where the large dense population centers have already been infected from at least 57% testing positive at Queens and the boroughs >50%, to 43% in NJ and 53% in Michigan, to one where the interior and second ring of suburbs is infected, which they are not and will not be since they closed up shop at the same time. Currently they are at <10% and not spreading. Second cities are less infected Ohio for example has 3 metro areas where the central county in each carries the vast majority of the cases. But only 20% of Ohio's population actually reside in those cities' central counties. Thus the rate of positive tests is 9%. Pennsylvania is at 17% positive and that is half in Philadelphia metro where the rate is nearing 30%.Pittsburgh and the rest of the state are at 8%. 

California is at 10% where the disease is concentrated in the SF Bay area and LA. where the city counties account for the bulk of the infected population. Penetration of the virus is about 20% in the cities since Newsom shut down hard a week earlier than NYC. LA SF etc. will not see the overwhelming surge that NYC (and NJ) and Michigan are seeing. Spring break attacked New Orleans and Florida heavily. Florida will soon lead the country in new cases. 

USA State	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Active Cases	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
New York	114,775	+11,299	3,565	+630	100,732	5,850	182	283,621	14,457
New Jersey	34,124	+4,229	846	+200	33,278	3,842	95	75,356	8,484
Louisiana	12,496	+2,199	409	+39	12,047	2,679	88	58,498	12,543
Massachusetts	11,736	+1,334	216	+24	11,510	1,718	32	68,800	10,073
Connecticut	5,276	+362	165	+34	5,111	1,473	46	22,029	6,151
Michigan	14,225	+1,481	540	+61	13,680	1,429	54	37,992	3,815
District Of Columbia	902	+145	21	+6	708	1,318	31	6,438	9,405
Washington	7,591	+625	314	+23	6,714	1,041	43	87,918	12,053
USA Total	311,357	+34,196	8,452	+1,331	288,080	941	26	1,632,955	4,933
Colorado	4,565	+392	126	+15	4,439	825	23	23,900	4,321
Pennsylvania	10,415	+1,995	136	+34	10,212	814	11	70,030	5,475
Illinois	10,357	+1,453	243	+33	10,112	808	19	53,581	4,179
Rhode Island	806	+95	17	+3	789	763	16	4,397	4,161
Vermont	461	+72	20	+3	441	738	32	5,844	9,351
Delaware	593	+143	14		508	625	15	6,467	6,811
Georgia	6,383	+416	208	+10	6,144	620	20	26,294	2,553
Idaho	1,025	+12	10		1,015	607	6	0
Indiana	3,953	+516	116	+14	3,837	596	17	19,800	2,983
Nevada	1,742	+228	46	+3	1,666	596	16	19,119	6,541
Florida	11,545	+1,277	195	+25	11,350	560	9	107,313	5,210
Maryland	3,125	+367	53	+11	2,913	521	9	25,610	4,266
Tennessee	3,321	+127	43	+6	2,862	499	6	41,391	6,223
Mississippi	1,455	+97	35	+6	1,420	487	12	0
Utah	1,428	+182	8	+1	1,409	469	3	28,043	9,208
New Hampshire	621	+81	9	+2	468	462	7	8,032	5,978
South Carolina	1,917	+217	40	+6	1,877	387	8	18,097	3,652
Missouri	2,291	+178	36	+5	2,253	376	6	26,840	4,407
Wisconsin	2,112	+196	56	+10	2,054	365	10	25,971	4,495
California	13,649	+1,382	319	+44	12,430	349	8	113,700	2,904
Maine	456	+24	10	+1	306	342	8	0
Alabama	1,633	+118	44	+6	1,589	336	9	10,829	2,226
Ohio	3,739	+427	102	+11	3,637	321	9	41,871	3,597
Wyoming	187	+21			161	321		3,132	5,383
Oklahoma	1,159	+171	42	+4	1,116	296	11	2,303	588
Arizona	2,019	+250	52	+11	1,964	291	7	27,160	3,910
Virginia	2,407	+395	52	+6	2,353	286	6	21,552	2,562
Montana	281	+19	6		275	270	6	6,519	6,258
New Mexico	546	+51	11	+1	481	261	5	16,831	8,044
Iowa	786	+87	14	+3	704	251	4	9,453	3,018
Arkansas	743	+5	14	+2	650	248	5	9,822	3,284
North Carolina	2,509	+222	33	+6	2,436	247	3	38,773	3,818
Hawaii	351	+32	3		290	247	2	12,278	8,634
North Dakota	186	+13	3		120	247	4	6,207	8,252
Oregon	999	+100	26	+4	973	245	6	18,925	4,636
South Dakota	212	+25	2		134	245	2	5,224	6,044
Kansas	698	+78	21	+4	677	240	7	7,578	2,605
Alaska	171	+20	5	+2	166	232	7	6,016	8,146
Texas	6,359	+701	111	+14	5,699	228	4	63,751	2,286
Kentucky	917	+86	40	+3	813	207	9	16,663	3,753
Nebraska	321	+42	6		315	169	3	5,389	2,829
Minnesota	865	+76	24	+2	401	156	4	25,423	4,599
West Virginia	282	+45	2		280	154	1	7,686	4,202
Guam	93	+11	4		69			0
Northern Mariana Islands	8		1		7			33
Puerto Rico	452	+74	18	+3	430	133	5	4,190	1,237
United States Virgin Islands	40	+3			6			266
Wuhan Repatriated	3				3			0
Diamond Princess Cruise	46				46			0
Total:	311,357	+34,196	8,452	+1,331	288,080	941	26	1,632,955	4,933

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Another bizzare story, this time from my aunt. I'll have to check this myself but apparently she works in a care home (sound familiar?) and one old guy has it no doubt caught it from a care worker or visitor. They phoned an ambulance which took him to hospital and guess what...they sent him back a day or two later still infected. The care home staff freaked out and phoned them saying they don't have the PPE or equipment to deal with it and in the end my aunt had to drive him back to hospital in her own car.

 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

On 4/4/2020 at 9:37 PM, 0R0 said:

There is an inverse relationship between what you see in the overrun hospitals and the reality of the infection still progressing as you run through the minority uninfected population. There is no point in quarantine when as many as will be infected are already immune. At that point you just need to let the rest of the low risk population to get exposed and get it over with.

Yep.

Society prefers mitigating action over actual mitigation. 

Jumping through hoops and attributing it as 'mitigation' is easy.  Actual mitigation is hard and inconvenient - involves telling real truths, accepting reality, and living with decisions we had to make that we rather wouldn't have.

What you just posted cannot be picked up by major media because its not politically correct and doesn't make us feel like there's a safety blanket.

Edited April 7, 2020 by GunnysGhost

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, GunnysGhost said:

Yep.

Society prefers mitigating action over actual mitigation. 

Jumping through hoops and attributing it as 'mitigation' is easy.  Actual mitigation is hard and inconvenient - involves telling reality, accepting reality, and living with decisions we had to make that we rather wouldn't have.

What you just posted cannot be picked up by major media because its not politically correct and doesn't make us feel like there's a safety blanket.

Which is why that should be outside of any government's power. 

[TheSavior + 2]

The corona virus NCOV is only harmful with stupid people, it is harmless with the "smart people".

I have a working vaccine and full mechanism of this virus already. But no any governments show interests, maybe they only wan to "enslave" the people.