How to Create a Pandemic

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Or both.  Look, it is human nature to over-react.  The bogeyman is under your bed, along with the Communists.  How many years has that song been sung?   

What "they are not telling you" is that the fatality rate of this disease is a lot higher than anyone lets on.  My hunch is that it is at least 10% and could go to 20%.  Why?  Because it is so infectious and rapidly develops into pneumonia.  It gets transmitted by touch, or touching a surface that an infected person touches.  That is a disastrous combination. A city like New York is not set up to deal with this, it has the dimensions of a Biblical plague.  Right now the Javits Convention Center is being converted into a field hospital, where thousands will be laying on stretchers and gurneys on the convention floor.  Sound like 1918?  Sure does to me. 

And as always, anyone who is not fit is going to take the worst of it.  That is a lot of people, when some 30% of society is already obese and sedentary. 

Well Jan I hope you don't mind but I totally disagree about the fatality rate and I think we are just going to have to wait for the figures which will take many months to come in. Our media is utterly hysterical and giving us a blow by blow running comentary of each death (most of which are people who are far older than I expect to life to). I like data and statistics, everything I've looked at just confuses me as to why it is being blown out of proportion so much. I am not being callous, I care about anyone who loses a loved on from any cause.

I also find it extremely odd how pretty much all the politicians and famous people who catch it report mild symptoms including our PM. You tell me one person who has had real influenza (not 'man flu' ) and say that? It's horendous. I know someone who has had CV, yes some breathing difficulties which must be alarming for a healthy person but asthmatics live with this their whole life. She was ill for 4 days and is waiting for her 7 days to be up and will be going to work!

Yes we should take precautions, in fact we should be doing it anyway to save lives in flu season but many don't bother and cause thousands of deaths per year by spreading it.

We need more data, we need to leave the medical staff to do their job without too much interference of politicians etc and we need the media to stop with the hysteria and help keep people calm because the latter are really the lowest form of life in my opinion right now.

Time will tell and I hope I am right and you are wrong for everyones sake but so far the fatality rate in Germany is around 0.5 and since they haven't tested the entire population is should be lower.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I am NOT a medically or a financially trained person. I am an engineer and approach problems from that perspective.

We now have roughly 8 billion people on the planet. Travel around the world in a matter of hours is commonplace. It is impossible to lockdown either a city, let alone a country, effectively.

The COVID-19 virus is extremely contagious.

This virus is out there among us and there is not much, if anything we can do to stop it’s spread. Lockdowns are a joke if you still allow for food and other deliveries by couriers ‘protected’ simply by masks and hand sanitizers. If mass transit systems are still in operation, with only masks and hand sanitizer available, the social distancing requirement becomes a farce.

I understand the idea of slowing the spread of the virus, but in reality we are sticking our finger in the dike, giving us the impression that we are actually doing something while the medical professionals and scientists try to develop treatments and a vaccine.

That being the case, why don’t we stop second guessing anything and everything which is being done to combat the pandemic? I see hundreds of responses on this forum saying we should be doing this, or we should have done that...and I would be willing to bet that the majority of those posting are as ignorant as I am concerning either the medical science, financial manipulations or the economy!

I would say that at the moment, ‘it is what it is’ and let the true professionals get on with their jobs - what other choice do you have. Perhaps bitching and moaning is therapeutic.

Did politicians make mistakes while addressing this pandemic, most assuredly. Let’s learn from the mistakes! Is there a shortage of material and equipment, undoubtedly. Take the necessary steps to address the issue.

We’ll either get through this, or we won’t, it is out of our hands at this point.

Help your neighbors, share what you have, remain optimistic and let’s ride this out.

The problem with our lock downs is they are reducing the hours shops can be open which is funneling people into them in a smaller window of time, very foolish.

RO is estimated to between 2-3 so quite contagious but there are far worse out there.

Agree on everything else but there are some very odd decisions being made right now.

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

This is one of our better newspapers from 2009

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Anyone who thinks this is a joke, a scam, or some scaremongering can take a good look at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igC9X1k8rUA

The problem with this specific virus is that it is so easily transmissable.  My guess is that the true death rate is somewhere between 10% and 20% instead of the apparent 3.5%, given that you will get those false positives as to partial RNA strands.  either way, it is a nasty one, putting lots and lots on respirators for two to three weeks.  And therein lies part of the problem:  there are vastly fewer ICU (intensive care units) beds in hospitals, and respirators, than are needed.  For example, tiny Vermont has only 217 ICU beds and only 210 respirators for a population of over 600,000 people.  You get overload very quickly as the disease spreads so quickly.  In NYC, they are short some 28,000 respirators, so elmhurst Hospital has this refrigerated 45-ft trailer truck backed up tothe back loading door, where they are stacking the bodies. When you have a hundred a day dying off, it is a lot.  NYC now hs over 25,000 cases, and no hospital beds free.  Now the Federal Govt has a stock of some 20,000 respirators in inventory, but Trump refuses to relese them, so they sit in boxes in some warehouse.  Brtilliant.

The richer New Yorkers are fleeing the city.  The Governor of Rhode Island has set up a police roadblock on the interstate road at the B order to stop all inbound cars with New York license plates.  the State guard is at the Airport, train stations, and bus depots to interrogate all incoming New Yorkers and put them into quarantine. Panic?  Maybe.  But given the trnsmissability of this virus, it seems prudent enough. 

Economic activity in the USA is now at 20%.  That is huge. Millions are unemployed.  That is huge.  Will the country recover?  I don't think so.  I think the USA is headed for a real-estate bubble collapse, with home prices dropping by 50%.  Do the real-estate agents grasp this?  Of course not.  They are living in disbelief.  Meanwhile folks are getting their monthlyh 401-k retirement account statements and see that they have a 37% devaluation of their assets.  So, who is in a spending mood with that?  Nobody.  I think the US economy is headed for a much lower plateau, and will end up something like Portugal, still there, but not doing much.  

 

The US is not at 20%. Appx 30-35% of the economy is shut in. The US specializes in management, finance marketing design and R&D. That is run by people largely working from home at the moment. That is 30% of employment but 50% of GDP. Much of what is left running is medicine which is typically 15-18% of GDP. It is obviously much bigger in activity now than it had been. Not all states are shut in, and not all those that are shut in are in total lockdown. 

The 401k for people nearing retirement is at 60 stocks 40 bonds. Bonds did well. More sophisticated portfolios  did better. E.g. a more conservative 50 40 5 5 (stocks bonds cash gold). The Fed has been aggressively reflating and will have filled in a large chunk of the missing dollars that have vexed the world economy for a decade by the scale of the programs announced. That has improved liquidity and stopped treasuries from trading like Tesla stock 

 

Unlike China, US real estate outside of very specific highly impacted metros in the throws of an echo bubble of sorts, is entirely reasonable with a median home selling at $247k in the US. Away from the coastal metros that will indeed suffer a drop of demand from this pandemic, home prices are far lower. Median in Ohio is $152k. Vs. $653k in NYC and %759k in Los Angeles. Those will not hold well. Ohio positive tests are at 7%, NYC >40% and LA 25-30% If you are intending to raise a family it is likely that you will push your boss to move you inland. 

 

 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

33 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

The problem with our lock downs is they are reducing the hours shops can be open which is funneling people into them in a smaller window of time, very foolish.

RO is estimated to between 2-3 so quite contagious but there are far worse out there.

Agree on everything else but there are some very odd decisions being made right now.

 

We must assume (again..) that those making these ‘odd decisions’ are professionals in their fields with access to more accurate information than we have.

Would ‘you’ (not specifically you) want the responsibility for making these critical decisions with the information available on the internet? When you take your car to the mechanic, do you tell him what needs done? If you go in for surgery do you tell the surgeon how to go about the operation?

I agree that some of the decisions appear odd, but do we have any choice but to follow the instructions of the authorities if we want to knock this virus in the head?

If I was a medical or economics expert, I may be more vocal, but I am simply a drilling consultant. In this situation I am just along for the ride and hoping for the best. 

[Rob Plant + 2,601]

9 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Comercial markets are highly dependent upon cash flow....there is no such thing as a 60 day float.

This is so very very true!

Cash is absolutely paramount to businesses right now!!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

This is so very very true!

Cash is absolutely paramount to businesses right now!!

The shame is, even in these trying times you can’t ‘knock off’ the local liquor store for some easy cash...they’re closed!

Those ATM machines are a pain in the butt to crack open quickly and the cops frown when you chain one up to your pick-up, pop it out of the wall, and drag it home to cut it open with the gas axe!

[El Nikko + 2,145]

13 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

We must assume (again..) that those making these ‘odd decisions’ are professionals in their fields with access to more accurate information than we have.

Would ‘you’ (not specifically you) want the responsibility for making these critical decisions with the information available on the internet? When you take your car to the mechanic, do you tell him what needs done? If you go in for surgery do you tell the surgeon how to go about the operation?

I agree that some of the decisions appear odd, but do we have any choice but to follow the instructions of the authorities if we want to knock this virus in the head?

If I was a medical or economics expert, I may be more vocal, but I am simply a drilling consultant. In this situation I am just along for the ride and hoping for the best. 

Yes Doug I am willing to conceed to both the PM and Medical professionals for now.

The funneling thing I mentioned seems very counter productive, It's not just shops, they cut back on the number of trains and underground trains which means that there are now more people crammed into each carriage. It's just a bit odd

What else is odd is this isn't the first time we've had such crazy figures from the government regarding death tolls as you can see above with the 2009 swine flu and other pandemics.

Here's a nutty theory just for fun: Any chance this is being used (yes it's obviously real) to do some serious damage to the Chinese economy which is back up and running and will now have no one to sell their stuff to since half the world's economy has been turned off? Could we survive 2 months like this, probably, can China survive at least 4 months of no economy with it's over leveraged banks and massive debt?

I'm not in to 'conspiracies' but I was thinking about this the other day after re-listening to Steve Bannon and a few other people talking about China, as the old saying goes 'never let a crisis go to waste'

Edited March 30, 2020 by El Nikko

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

”Help your neighbors, share what you have, remain optimistic and let’s ride this out.”

 

I’m in lockdown in Malaysia. Originally it was supposed to last 2 weeks, but it was extended to 4.

 

I am a voracious reader (don’t watch TV much plus mine went belly up during the first week of lockdown...). I had stopped by the bookstore and was good to go for 2 weeks, but not for 4. Anyhow, there is a English guy that lives in the same building who stopped by to chat with me while I was washing my motorcycle down in the carpark the other day and I was lamenting my lack of reading material. Later that evening he texted me and said he’d left some books in my mailbox.

 

It is little things like this that will help us all get through this ordeal without going insane. Be good neighbors and help each other out.

 

(A few days later I got a text from the English guy asking if I knew how to replace the master window switch in his VW GTI. Oddly enough, I do. So I could ‘pay him back’.😂)

[El Nikko + 2,145]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

”Help your neighbors, share what you have, remain optimistic and let’s ride this out.”

 

We're doing this so there are other people out there like that

It's the government telling me not to work and not to bother paying my bills that makes me question my own sanity, I keep expecting to wake up in a white padded room because that never happens 😂

[Rob Plant + 2,601]

@Jan van Eck I think 10-20% death rate is wildly OTT Jan.

If you look at countries that are doing the most testing like Germany and South Korea the death rate is approx 0.5%

Thats about 1.6Million in the US, but I fear for countries with poor health care systems and very large cities ie India 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Rob Plant

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I am NOT a medically or a financially trained person. I am an engineer and approach problems from that perspective.

We now have roughly 8 billion people on the planet. Travel around the world in a matter of hours is commonplace. It is impossible to lockdown either a city, let alone a country, effectively.

The COVID-19 virus is extremely contagious.

This virus is out there among us and there is not much, if anything we can do to stop it’s spread. Lockdowns are a joke if you still allow for food and other deliveries by couriers ‘protected’ simply by masks and hand sanitizers. If mass transit systems are still in operation, with only masks and hand sanitizer available, the social distancing requirement becomes a farce.

I understand the idea of slowing the spread of the virus, but in reality we are sticking our finger in the dike, giving us the impression that we are actually doing something while the medical professionals and scientists try to develop treatments and a vaccine.

That being the case, why don’t we stop second guessing anything and everything which is being done to combat the pandemic? I see hundreds of responses on this forum saying we should be doing this, or we should have done that...and I would be willing to bet that the majority of those posting are as ignorant as I am concerning either the medical science, financial manipulations or the economy!

I would say that at the moment, ‘it is what it is’ and let the true professionals get on with their jobs - what other choice do you have. Perhaps bitching and moaning is therapeutic.

Did politicians make mistakes while addressing this pandemic, most assuredly. Let’s learn from the mistakes! Is there a shortage of material and equipment, undoubtedly. Take the necessary steps to address the issue.

We’ll either get through this, or we won’t, it is out of our hands at this point.

Help your neighbors, share what you have, remain optimistic and let’s ride this out.

When you have bunch of motors online producing High Voltage Electricity  and some on standby, and one goes down you take it out of service and fix it (Quarantine) the rest take up the slack until the unit is fixed, another goes down and so on. Trained people do this every day taking risks to work on dangerous equipment, let them get on with it as motors always go down until BLACK OUT. 

Unruly motors are often used as a spare parts machine.

Edited March 30, 2020 by James Regan

[0R0 + 6,251]

29 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

1 hour ago, El Nikko said:

The problem with our lock downs is they are reducing the hours shops can be open which is funneling people into them in a smaller window of time, very foolish.

RO is estimated to between 2-3 so quite contagious but there are far worse out there.

Agree on everything else but there are some very odd decisions being made right now.

 

We must assume (again..) that those making these ‘odd decisions’ are professionals in their fields with access to more accurate information than we have.

Would ‘you’ (not specifically you) want the responsibility for making these critical decisions with the information available on the internet? When you take your car to the mechanic, do you tell him what needs done? If you go in for surgery do you tell the surgeon how to go about the operation?

I agree that some of the decisions appear odd, but do we have any choice but to follow the instructions of the authorities if we want to knock this virus in the head?

If I was a medical or economics expert, I may be more vocal, but I am simply a drilling consultant. In this situation I am just along for the ride and hoping for the best. 

There is no such thing as expertise in authority here. Decisions are made by favoring one set of experts over another. Sometimes with political drivers, sometimes because they have no idea what to do and what is proper. 

Cuomo making loud noise about a problem he created due to non response when it was worthwhile. Then he shut things down when it was obvious the infection is ubiquitous and there is nobody left to infect. My back of the envelope guesstimate shows NYC at perhaps 80% infected. What's the point of it now? 

[James Regan + 1,776]

9 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

There is no such thing as expertise in authority here. Decisions are made by favoring one set of experts over another. Sometimes with political drivers, sometimes because they have no idea what to do and what is proper. 

Cuomo making loud noise about a problem he created due to non response when it was worthwhile. Then he shut things down when it was obvious the infection is ubiquitous and there is nobody left to infect. My back of the envelope guesstimate shows NYC at perhaps 80% infected. What's the point of it now? 

The horse has bolted, he tried but in general the USA was three weeks to a month late, look at UK Fkin Morons. Here in Brasil we're 6 weeks behind, so we are doomed.

I have food 7 dogs a gun with one bullet and a very vicious wife, god bless anyone who jumps my quarantine.

 

Just for the record Quarantine comes from the latin word meaning 40 days not 14, so lets stay in quarantine. Source "Black Death"

Trentiono -30 days

Quintino 15 days........

Edited March 30, 2020 by James Regan

[El Nikko + 2,145]

10 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

There is no such thing as expertise in authority here. Decisions are made by favoring one set of experts over another. Sometimes with political drivers, sometimes because they have no idea what to do and what is proper. 

Cuomo making loud noise about a problem he created due to non response when it was worthwhile. Then he shut things down when it was obvious the infection is ubiquitous and there is nobody left to infect. My back of the envelope guesstimate shows NYC at perhaps 80% infected. What's the point of it now? 

The only thing I'd change with that estimate is that every year X% of the/a population catch viruses like colds or flu, I have no idea what that figure is but it's unlikely to be more than 20-40% of a population (??) so 80% of X could already have it and I could totally buy into that possibility.

At some point I am going to have to sneak out of my house in the dead of night with my fishing rod...maybe some sanity will come back to me after that 🤪 I've not even had a beer in a week 😥

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, El Nikko said:

The only thing I'd change with that estimate is that every year X% of the/a population catch viruses like colds or flu, I have no idea what that figure is but it's unlikely to be more than 20-40% of a population (??) so 80% of X could already have it and I could totally buy into that possibility.

At some point I am going to have to sneak out of my house in the dead of night with my fishing rod...maybe some sanity will come back to me after that 🤪 I've not even had a beer in a week 😥

This is a different situation for sardine conditions in NYC metro. It is more densely built than Shanghai. Only Manila and its suburbs and the suburbs of Paris and a few others are higher. The highest density is actually in Manhattan and the NJ side of the Hudson.   

I don't believe that NYC infection stats for the cold are just 40% tops. I  think everyone basically gets infected, 20-40% get the symptoms. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

This is a different situation for sardine conditions in NYC metro. It is more densely built than Shanghai. Only Manila and its suburbs and the suburbs of Paris and a few others are higher. The highest density is actually in Manhattan and the NJ side of the Hudson.   

I don't believe that NYC infection stats for the cold are just 40% tops. I  think everyone basically gets infected, 20-40% get the symptoms. 

That would be really interesting to find out ..maybe they had a point with the 'herd immunity' thing but they really didn't sell it well to me at the time.

I won't lie I wasn't taking any of it seriously (my facebook was 90% memes making fun of it at the time) until I heard they wanted 80% of the population to get it....I did panic slightly and was ready to pull my daughter out of school because I'm asthmatic and really don't want any kind of flu lol

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, El Nikko said:

I also find it extremely odd how pretty much all the politicians and famous people who catch it report mild symptoms including our PM.

 That seems to be correlated with average outside temperature.  You are in Canada and the temps there are much colder.  The -19 is most virulent in the areas where the temperature band is between 41 degrees F. and 50 degrees F. That is why you are seening the death outbreaks in Italy, Iran, Southern China.  The outbreak in New York City is a function of that creating its own micro-climate.  Average outside air temperatures in NYC run 10 degrees F hotter than in the surrounding areas. It is due to the heat generated by the city itself. 

You are now seeing runaway outbreaks in Louisiana, an area where it is hot and damp, perfect breeding ground for this virus.  The far Northern countries will see little outbreak, low death rates, and low intensities.  I have no idea what drives this, but the correlation is unmistakeable. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

You are now seeing runaway outbreaks in Louisiana, an area where it is hot and damp, perfect breeding ground for this virus.  The far Northern countries will see little outbreak, low death rates, and low intensities.  I have no idea what drives this, but the correlation is unmistakeable. 

The virus does poorly in heat and high humidity and under the sun. Bacteria like the warmth and humidity. R0 was measured falling in relation to temperature and humidity rising. The cold countries tend to be more organized and disciplined because they have to be to survive cold weather. They also plan. And their density (other than Germany) is low. Besides that, I believe Germans have been treating early with a selection of drugs. Unlike the US where hospital beds are distributed a bit disproportionately, Germans have closer distributions of beds to people. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

 That seems to be correlated with average outside temperature.  You are in Canada and the temps there are much colder.  The -19 is most virulent in the areas where the temperature band is between 41 degrees F. and 50 degrees F. That is why you are seening the death outbreaks in Italy, Iran, Southern China.  The outbreak in New York City is a function of that creating its own micro-climate.  Average outside air temperatures in NYC run 10 degrees F hotter than in the surrounding areas. It is due to the heat generated by the city itself. 

You are now seeing runaway outbreaks in Louisiana, an area where it is hot and damp, perfect breeding ground for this virus.  The far Northern countries will see little outbreak, low death rates, and low intensities.  I have no idea what drives this, but the correlation is unmistakeable. 

OMG I'm in the UK how insulting 😂

I'm just kidding

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by El Nikko

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Probably not.  

 

No chance. 

He assumes that there will be a coherent and uniform medical response to this virus.  I don't think so.  I suspect a lot more will die.  If you assume an overall infection rate of 60% of the US population, then that is 185 million.  If your death rate is a miniscule 0.5%, then that is already 900,000 dead.  If you assume a more realistic floor of 5%, then that is 9 million.  Either way, that is a lot.  It also implies that real estate is headed for a price deflation, and the constructioin industry is headed for oblivion.  Lots of problems, unless lockdown shuts down this virus.

But let's all remember how this got started:  it is the Chinese going out into the wilds and capturing anteters, including the ones in Africa caught by natives in the bush, then brought back to CVhina for slaughter in those "wet markets."  No surprise, that virfus, a parasite indis the anteater, finds fresh soil in humans - and there are a lot of humans, in close proximity. It turns out the pathway is through coughing and touch of contaminated surfaces, then touching the face and nose/mouth.  So it takes off like wildfire.  The virus does not do much inside that anteater, it is just hitching a ride.  But now it got off that host, and found itself a new, mobile host as fertile ground to go infect.  So the virus is not concerned about the life span of the host, as it will have jumped off to another human host before this first host dies.  It can and will replicate, burning through the huyman population.  

You can, in theory, stop it by shutting town the infection transmission vector.  Jusrt as sexual contact results in transmission of STDs, so does human contact transmit the -19.  Trump had the right idea, shut off the pathways, B ut once lodged inside a new population, then it is up to "the locals" to beat it back.  Will they?  Judging by the ridiculoous behavior of the young kids on college Spring Break, that outlook is dismal.  So now the Governors are trying physical barriers, such as the Governor of Rhode Island putting b arricateds on the Intgerstate I-95.   Desperate times call for desperate measures.   Desperate times call for desperate measures. 

Fauci projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the next thirty days starting yesterday 3/29/20 We will see who is right. He pulled those numbers out of his behind IMO. I will be watching and everyone should. We have the supplies coming and lots of good meds. Lots of old folks like me will die, but far fewer under retirement age. We need to keep the economy open as much as is safe. Old folks and the infirm need to stay home and avoid contacts to the maximum. Social distancing is great. Early identification and treatment is great. Blowing things all out of perspective is really bad and harms the economy. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Fauci projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the next thirty days starting yesterday 3/29/20 We will see who is right. He pulled those numbers out of his behind IMO. I will be watching and everyone should. We have the supplies coming and lots of good meds. Lots of old folks like me will die, but far fewer under retirement age. We need to keep the economy open as much as is safe. Old folks and the infirm need to stay home and avoid contacts to the maximum. Social distancing is great. Early identification and treatment is great. Blowing things all out of perspective is really bad and harms the economy. 

I'm sure you did but I really hope everyone listens to the horses mouth and not read the media right now because he said that as the extreme upper estimate based on the worse case if we continue to do exactly what we are doing now without any further improvements, this was also clarified by the woman expert (Her name escapes me). In fact she explained that their model had a large range of confdence and she actually said the upper range could be 160k if they continued to do exactly the same as they were doing but since the US is making improvements to everything then the final count would be between the upper and lower. So 200k is very unlikely as is 160k.

If everyone does what they have been asked to and if medical advances continue and the funds and equipmetn arrive the final death toll should be far far smaller. One flu season in the US killed 80,000 and I expect the final death toll from CV19 to be much lower than that due to the resources being pumped into the system. In the UK I think it will be below 10,000 but an upper figure of 20,000 could be possible.

These figures while tragic are a far cry from 2 million in the US and 250,000 in the UK which were originally suggested by 'experts'.

Maybe they do this to get everyone's attention but every epidemic in the last 20 years ends the same way with far lower numbers of dead than originally estimated.

Edited March 30, 2020 by El Nikko

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Here's a translated video of German Professor Dr Sucharit Bhakdi, who raised some questions about how deadly CV really is and the science behind the assumptions being made by our experts and government. If there are any German speakers you can listen to the original, he can be searched online to check his credentials and he provides links in his original video.

I did post a link to an article a few days ago which raised questioned about how deaths of people with one or more serious underlying health problem (and who had contracted CV-19) we're being automatically attributed to CV-19 as the sole cause of death particularly in Spain and Italy and possibly other countries like the UK. The Professor's comments on that subject start around 10 minutes in.

I am not posting anything I find that appears conspiratorial, it's just silly and counter productive, but I thought this was interesting. I can also find the article I mentioned above if anyone likes. We need real scientific studies and statistics not the howling mob of journalists and panic merchants. Well worth a listen.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/a-shocking-correction-dr-fauci-went-from-a-possible-1-7-million-us-deaths-due-to-coronavirus-to-a-possible-200000-us-deaths-in-14-days/ I have stated that even 100,000 deaths in 30 days is a high number, Dr. Fauci yesterday said he thought 100,000 to 200,000 would die in the USA during the next 30 days. We will all watch with great interest I am sure. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, El Nikko said:

I'm sure you did but I really hope everyone listens to the horses mouth and not read the media right now because he said that as the extreme upper estimate based on the worse case if we continue to do exactly what we are doing now without any further improvements, this was also clarified by the woman expert (Her name escapes me). In fact she explained that their model had a large range of confdence and she actually said the upper range could be 160k if they continued to do exactly the same as they were doing but since the US is making improvements to everything then the final count would be between the upper and lower. So 200k is very unlikely as is 160k.

If everyone does what they have been asked to and if medical advances continue and the funds and equipmetn arrive the final death toll should be far far smaller. One flu season in the US killed 80,000 and I expect the final death toll from CV19 to be much lower than that due to the resources being pumped into the system. In the UK I think it will be below 10,000 but an upper figure of 20,000 could be possible.

These figures while tragic are a far cry from 2 million in the US and 250,000 in the UK which were originally suggested by 'experts'.

Maybe they do this to get everyone's attention but every epidemic in the last 20 years ends the same way with far lower numbers of dead than originally estimated.

To me it was very inflammatory and I was not even considering the original nonsense.