A New Solar-Panel Plant Could Have Capacity to Meet Half of Global Demand

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 3/30/2020 at 2:28 PM, ronwagn said:

If you are connected to the grid what would they charge you if you didn't use anything?

Yep. Theres a flat delivery fee that goes up with  use 34$ so after their typical 800kwh that's close to 54$ ... we use 400ish in our house. And it's closer to 45$. It was hard to get the answer from the hydro one website but enough digging and you'll get there. It's actually funny there is a q&a : " why do I have a electricity bill if I dont use any electricity " the answer was click here to understand your bill lol .

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Rob Kramer said:

Yep. Theres a flat delivery fee that goes up with  use 34$ so after their typical 800kwh that's close to 54$ ... we use 400ish in our house. And it's closer to 45$. It was hard to get the answer from the hydro one website but enough digging and you'll get there. It's actually funny there is a q&a : " why do I have a electricity bill if I dont use any electricity " the answer was click here to understand your bill lol .

Disgusting!

[Rob Kramer + 696]

3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Disgusting!

Ya it's a bother to look at a bill that should be 52$ at the median .13c /kwh. And see 96$ lol. You'd think hydro assets from the 60s within 2 minutes and a distribution station on the street would be cheaper lol. But at least I know they pay their employees well. I used to work at a garage that had the local trucks come when their mechanic was backed up. The guys were good guys too. I'm sure people would say the same about mechanics.  Just life in an overtaxed country. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:42 PM, Wolfgang Horn said:

(i) The turnover to non-fossil energies is not my invention, it is a clear and not to misinterprete measurement f.i. by the EU

(ii) "Decarbonisation" till the year 2050 is a task we are focussed to work since year now

(iii) There will not be any "gap", as the process (or transformation) to non-fossil life is a gradual process. It takes 30 year. And within my lifetime, yes, I will be using fossil fuels, but every year a litte less ...

Okay, you guys in the EU are free to switch to any energy source you like - go to it!

Just stop trying to handcuff the rest of the world to your unrealistic green aspirations.

Fair enough?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Neighbors solar panels hit the highest I've seen them 6k clear sunny sky at 2pm ...wondering if it's actually a 10k system ... it's a cool day so mabey there better warm/hot and one side of the roof is sunny side other points away but is low slope.  Even IF it makes 6k at 18c (on peak - no doubt it's on some way to expensive green plan like 30c kwh) for 8 hours a day (even tho the solar char is like 6 hours here) that's 3k$ /yr that would only pay for a current system (again with no rainy days) in 10yr. No interest no extra house insurance nothing. I'd rather invest have dividends and capital application. Or buy something nice or not make extra payments. Also I didnt factor is the 35$ monthly cage so 11 years. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 3/30/2020 at 3:19 AM, Wolfgang Horn said:

This is a clear and manageable view to the future:

And all oil investments are risky, vague, 19th century approaches, fossil, bad for the athmosphere, polluting the planet, and so on - so turn to solar energy!

 

You're a random who downvoted my nuclear comment. That about demonstrates how much you actually know. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 3/30/2020 at 3:19 AM, Rob Kramer said:

 

People have always wanted more. I'll agree to disagree.  Especially if everyone is driving electric cars in 30 years .... tons of oil that is now electricity demand. 

You are overlooking the astounding increases in efficiencies that also apply to EVs. US electricity usage has been flat for over 10 years. We used less electricity last year than in 2007 yet have more electronic devices than ever! The only real question is how much EVs will increase demand. I don't think the net increase will be that much if any. Edit - on further thought there is the transition from natural gas to electricity for heating to consider, that could be a significant demand driver. But could be partially offset by increases in insulation efficiency.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/5?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.SALES.US-ALL.A~~~&columnchart=ELEC.SALES.US-ALL.A~ELEC.SALES.US-RES.A~ELEC.SALES.US-COM.A~ELEC.SALES.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.SALES.US-ALL.A&freq=A&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&maptype=0&rse=0&pin=

Edited April 12, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[specinho + 470]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:42 PM, Wolfgang Horn said:

(i) The turnover to non-fossil energies is not my invention, it is a clear and not to misinterprete measurement f.i. by the EU

(ii) "Decarbonisation" till the year 2050 is a task we are focussed to work since year now

(iii) There will not be any "gap", as the process (or transformation) to non-fossil life is a gradual process. It takes 30 year. And within my lifetime, yes, I will be using fossil fuels, but every year a litte less ...

Europe has nuclear........ and promoting more.........  what's the name........ (aahh.... google says it's Small Modular Reactors).......

On 4/1/2020 at 10:09 AM, Rob Kramer said:

Yep. Theres a flat delivery fee that goes up with  use 34$ so after their typical 800kwh that's close to 54$ ... we use 400ish in our house. And it's closer to 45$.

Owing to an economic concept that intended to equalize the price of a thing throughout the globe, our electricity bill jumps ~ 600% since two years ago. The initial bill was ~ 32 for about 200kW; after the change of analogue meter to digital meter, increment of oil price and increment of tariff, the bill becomes ~ 150 - 200+. The usages on the first month of digitalization was four folds but nothing new was added...... Damn conversion rate...... and the economic concept........ and the digital meter......

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Edit - on further thought there is the transition from natural gas to electricity for heating to consider, that could be a significant demand driver.

Countries are in need of more spending money by year, the price of electricity will only go up and never down. (According to a government, the sole reason for any increment in price or tax is that the government would have more to spend). The continuous increment is foreseen to burden many industries and cause chain- inflation. Hence, the opposite (electricity to gas) might be in the trend.............??

Edited April 12, 2020 by specinho

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You are overlooking the astounding increases in efficiencies that also apply to EVs. US electricity usage has been flat for over 10 years. We used less electricity last year than in 2007 yet have more electronic devices than ever!

ERm, no, way off base:  That is what happens when you ship your industry overseas.  Energy consumption falls.  Look no further than Aluminum production.  It has fallen off a cliff(-40%).  Aluminum requires gobs and gobs of energy.  Steel production is also lower(-20%).  Stainless steel production has fallen off a cliff.  Same goes with Copper production minus 50 % in last 2 decades. 

And that is ONLY RAW production.  Does not include all the processing into finished goods which often require remelting or nearly so which can take just as much energy as the RAW production requires. 

This does not cover the all of the textile mills which disappeared.  They require gobs of energy for dying, manipulating fabric.  Why did they disappear?  Idiot WTO which let the whole world import without rule of law, freedom of speech/assembly, regulations etc.  Say what you will about GATT, but GATT was with ONLY nations who had rule of law, freedom of speech/assembly, regulations etc. 

If you take these MASSIVE decreases in production into consideration, the energy consumption has NOT gone down at all.  In fact, it has increased massively.  Where did it increase?  China. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

ERm, no, way off base:  That is what happens when you ship your industry overseas.  Energy consumption falls.  Look no further than Aluminum production.  It has fallen off a cliff(-40%).  Aluminum requires gobs and gobs of energy.  Steel production is also lower(-20%).  Stainless steel production has fallen off a cliff.  Same goes with Copper production minus 50 % in last 2 decades. 

And that is ONLY RAW production.  Does not include all the processing into finished goods which often require remelting or nearly so which can take just as much energy as the RAW production requires. 

This does not cover the all of the textile mills which disappeared.  They require gobs of energy for dying, manipulating fabric.  Why did they disappear?  Idiot WTO which let the whole world import without rule of law, freedom of speech/assembly, regulations etc.  Say what you will about GATT, but GATT was with ONLY nations who had rule of law, freedom of speech/assembly, regulations etc. 

If you take these MASSIVE decreases in production into consideration, the energy consumption has NOT gone down at all.  In fact, it has increased massively.  Where did it increase?  China. 

Uh no quite on base. You speak of industrial demand but residential and commercial are also flat for the past ten years. And if all those MASSIVE decreases in industrial production were relevant then why is the industrial demand also flat? Did some other MASSIVE growth industry take their place?

Edited April 13, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

You can say whatever you want, and find the statistic to prove it, but unless it is decreed that we all must drive some EV, soule

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Uh no quite on base. You speak of industrial demand but residential and commercial are also flat for the past ten years. And if all those MASSIVE decreases in industrial production were relevant then why is the industrial demand also flat? Did some other MASSIVE growth industry take their place?

Residential/Commercial have switched wholesale to NG and Residential have finally been switching wholesale to HVAC...  Population has increased quite a bit last I checked. 280M yr 2000, and in 2020 330M, or a  tidy 50Million increase... A nice 17%+++ increase.

Where is this population explosion?  Down South USA.  What is almost NEEDED to live down south?  AC.  AC takes gobs of power.  Has percentage of people with AC gone up massively or down in last 20 years?  Up.  Demographics: USA has gotten older.  Do old people need houses Hotter or Colder?  Hotter.  Heating bills on average have gone UP.  True, many, most have switched to NG for heating, but still need power to run the HVAC pumps, blowers, etc. 

Has number of computers, TV's, cellphones, time played by video games gone massively UP in last 20 years or down?  UP.  What uses power?  All of the above.  Only thing that has gone down is residential/commercial lighting loads. 

So, 1/6th more population yet, industrial output has fallen.... Yea... tells you everything you need to know about the WTO.

Edited April 13, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Rob Kramer + 696]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Uh no quite on base. You speak of industrial demand but residential and commercial are also flat for the past ten years. And if all those MASSIVE decreases in industrial production were relevant then why is the industrial demand also flat? Did some other MASSIVE growth industry take their place?

Your forgetting 2 things also 1) technology - over the same time frame we went from tube and plasma tv to led . Edison and gas lign bulbs to led computers being shrunk 1000% and electric motors from brush to brushless. In most cases the base technology is improved on massively at the end you tweak it by hairs. Were at the hairs part. Led lights aren't gonna change from 95%light 5% waste heat to 1100%light and -30%heat to keep on the improvement scale at past pace vs incandescent lights. 

2) type of billing. Now electricity has cheap low rates (in comparison with how everything else has inflated) but the bill is growing due to time of day and delivery (at least in Canada) so I see tons of houses that leave on lights outside overnight and small windows open while AC is on defeating insulation. The reason is the bill changes very little with use so why not have the comfort tou want it's a 10$ difference over the month. This is the last 10$ that canadians are thinking of most spend 14$ at Tim's daily.  2.30 at very least. Drive through is crazy now that were in qarentine.  ... because coffee is hard to make at home and takes to long? Haha. 

A side note .... if electric heating takes off with a gas heater ban .... watch the chart blow out before EV .... have fun trippling up wiring on delivery lines then have delivery rates blow out.

This is similar to the tax problem in canada .... everyone wants higher pay and slowly each area gets it.... and everything goes up at the same % and your in the same boat. To have more money we can be paid the same but need less tax. Or less tax can give us higher pay and not inflate the price making it pointless.

[Mark Potochnik + 8]

No. Market is going to grow exponentially!

Need MUCH MORE!

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 3/30/2020 at 12:31 AM, Rob Kramer said:

I love solar and always wanted to use its "free" energy. But ever since striking up conversation with the owners of the only house on the street with panels on their house I've seen their flaws are 10x bigger than advertised.  First I'll say their panels are a rooftop rental. They get 400$ a year. Second the panels 3yrs old? Would have been 40-50k .... the system looks like 10k watts . I take daily strolls past and check the meter. ALL winter 900 - 4700(yesterday on a sunny day)  the average has been about 1500. So most of the year there getting 1/5th of system capacity.  I've never read this anywhere. Also they still pay for electricity and the 46$/month delivery cost to stay connected to the grid . 

U must live in Alaska or somethin? Panels must be facing the North Pole? Furthermore, most houses can only fit 3-4 KW.

[REAL Green + 65]

On 3/29/2020 at 9:31 AM, Rob Kramer said:

I love solar and always wanted to use its "free" energy. But ever since striking up conversation with the owners of the only house on the street with panels on their house I've seen their flaws are 10x bigger than advertised.  First I'll say their panels are a rooftop rental. They get 400$ a year. Second the panels 3yrs old? Would have been 40-50k .... the system looks like 10k watts . I take daily strolls past and check the meter. ALL winter 900 - 4700(yesterday on a sunny day)  the average has been about 1500. So most of the year there getting 1/5th of system capacity.  I've never read this anywhere. Also they still pay for electricity and the 46$/month delivery cost to stay connected to the grid . 

 

I love solar too but now that I am doing a significant amount of solar, I will caution people about it.  Realism comes with experience.  I have 3600watt system 12x300watt panels pole mounted with inverter and batteries.  I am not off grid and I am not grid tied.  I am a hybrid system.  All my circuits that can run on solar are connected to transfer switches much like you would see on a pleasure boat with switches for shore power, generator, and battery.  On a good day I am only able to get around on average 10Kwh at peak output on average 20amps of juice from a 48volt system.  On a bad day I don’t even turn it on and there are periods in winter and early spring that I go days without turning the solar on.  The batteries are fully charged but I am not gathering solar energy.  On a nice sunny day, I get the higher output of 10Kwh from running my mini-split AC/Heater.  This is an inverter system that works very well with a solar system.  I do wood heat too with a wood boiler for really cold periods so the solar system runs that too.  This is low draw system with a small water circulating pump and blower fan.  I run my frig and freezers too which are not high draw. 

 

The way I gather solar energy is running it during the day.  I don't use my batteries at night.  So, I am more about gathering low carbon energy when conditions are good.   I am a permaculture farmer too so this happens with my cows and goats in my grazing system.  They are turning solar energy into meat.  Cutting and curing wood for when it is cold is likewise a low carbon collection activity.  Yet, I still use the grid for high draw things like backup water heating and electric cooking.  I have backup electric heat.  I can also run my well if the grid goes down.  I consider this very important prep asset.  Water is critical in all situations.  The well takes all my system can put out but I have a large pressure tank I can pressurize then shut the well off. 

 

So I am getting a lot of value out of my system as a backup especially if the grid goes down.  I can keep my food cold and lights on when grid is down.  I can run my wood boiler in the cold of winter.  I am utilizing it to reduce my electric bill by collecting solar energy during good conditions.  Now the downside for those talking free energy.  It is not free.  I now have around $20K invested in this system.  An investment like that depreciates.  The batteries are good for 10 years and the solar panels maybe 20 years.  I lost 6 panels to lighting last years so keep that in mind.  Inverters are problematic and expensive.  On a good day I gather 10Kwh.  Do the math and you find that is a very low daily return.  In fact, as cheap as my electric is around here in Mo Ozarks it does not pay out better than grid.  Grid is cheaper over my solar and wood.  The wood boiler was expensive and does not pay out cheaper than electric all things considered.  Wood gathering is labor intensive hard work.  Where all this does pay is with my green prepping.  I am greener because of it and I am prepared for a shock.  We are now in a pandemic so there could be grid instability down the road.  Grid problems are likely not coming but they could if things don't go as planned.  I am prepared.  I am living a little greener than the grid dependent person and finally I am prepped for a decline or worse.  I still use the grid so I have no sacrifices other than an expensive system that is depreciating with marginal returns.  It is piece of mind and it is hard to put a price on that.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

6 hours ago, REAL Green said:

 I can run my wood boiler in the cold of winter.  .....  Now the downside for those talking free energy.  It is not free.  I now have around $20K invested in this system.  An investment like that depreciates.  The batteries are good for 10 years and the solar panels maybe 20 years.  I lost 6 panels to lighting last years so keep that in mind.  Inverters are problematic and expensive.  On a good day I gather 10Kwh.  Do the math and you find that is a very low daily return.  In fact, as cheap as my electric is around here in Mo Ozarks it does not pay out better than grid.  Grid is cheaper over my solar and wood.  The wood boiler was expensive and does not pay out cheaper than electric all things considered.  Wood gathering is labor intensive hard work.  .... It is piece of mind and it is hard to put a price on that.

Why Solar thermal with semi parabolic collectors still rules up north.  I turn mine off/drain in summer as it boils the water and I do not need the heat.  You can build them yourself and all it requires is a pump, a couple thermometers, a do it yourself semi parabolic mirror(heavy duty aluminum foil works just fine) and a tank.  Most expensive part?  Tank.  But, since you already have the wood boiler... you should already have the insulated tank.  If your tank is horizontal get rid of it and go with vertical.  Throw in thermostatic valves and you will always be picking up water from the correct location in the tank stratification.   Need a stratification strainer in your tank though(improves efficiency by ~20%)

Yes, inverters are a major problem.  Something no one ever talks about.  Always talk about solar panels... Major problem I have is their ratings are complete BS.  If you run your inverter ANYWHERE near their top rating; within 33%, you will destroy your inverter in short order.  Heck, I would say within 50% is more in reality with the majority of them for duty cycle/longevity.  They by-and-large have horrifically insufficient cooling, pushing too much power through each mosfet so even if they have sufficient cooling you are still screwed, and have too small of wire used creating extra heating.   So, if you purchase a standard ~3KW inverter, the actual power you can push is at maximum around 2KW.  

If you want a bigger dot it yourself project, rip open your inverters, rip off the mosfets, put superior heat conduction paste on to the back(silver or make your own), reattach to your store bought heat sink, increase size of heatsink(add more fins), put a MUCH larger fan on inverter, and most importantly *** ROUTE the fan inlet and exhaust to different locations so you cannot get looped circulation, so fan is always pulling cool air. Likewise build air channeling guides INSIDE the inverter to channel the cool air over the mofets.  This is almost NEVER done.  Amount of fan required drops drastically when you do this.  You can check with a simple thermometer test to get your shrouds right.

PS: Wood boiler... most are implemented in a stupid fashion.  I have no idea how you are doing it, but if you are trying to do so without a VERY large vertical several THOUSAND gallon(10k Liter) tank, you are going to drive yourself insane trying to light/stoke the fire constantly and then you waste a full load of firewood just getting the boiler to temperature before you make a single Watt to heat your home. 

PPS: Look for free wood on craigslist.  You said Missouri, so do not know that area, but where I live, free firewood already bucked and often split is Free.  Hell I can even get crappy cottonwood delivered for free.  No, not all the time, but often enough.

Edited April 14, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 4/14/2020 at 3:30 AM, Wombat said:

U must live in Alaska or somethin? Panels must be facing the North Pole? Furthermore, most houses can only fit 3-4 KW.

I thin the roof is east west so has one "sun side" but it's not like the opposite side is in shade . So if on a sunny no clouds warm day its 6700W what size system is that? (Knowing half the roof is not optimal direction) 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:41 AM, Rob Kramer said:

I thin the roof is east west so has one "sun side" but it's not like the opposite side is in shade . So if on a sunny no clouds warm day its 6700W what size system is that? (Knowing half the roof is not optimal direction) 

Best way to work it out is to count the panels and assume each is 300W. Should be at least 30. If not, your neighbour has been swindled!

[BradleyPNW + 282]

re: attached Lawrence Livermore US Energy Use charts. "Rejected energy" is mostly waste heat from spinning turbines/cam shafts with combustion. 

You can see transportation energy increased a little over the last 10 years, coal is dying, natural gas and windmills are growing. Solar is flat. However, solar PV will grow rapidly over the next 10 years because the USA will use quantitive easing for many years into the future in an attempt to recover from the COVID19 economic depression. Unlike natural gas, solar PV is capital heavy and fuel light. Consequently, low interest rates due to QE will attract investors to grid-scale solar PV installations. 

We will also see lots and lots of residential solar, but the vast bulk -- by far -- will be on new construction not rooftop renovations. The cost of adding solar to new construction is dirt cheap compared to renovation. You might even lose if you don't install solar PV on new construction. So lots of incentive in that regard too. 

To be clear, the primary reason I think people can pretty much plant their flags in the grid-scale solar PV camp is due to QE policy that lowers interest rates and favors capital investment heavy projects that don't require fuel. FINANCE will fuel solar PV and fossil fuels will be beggars at the bankers table. 

When it comes to grid-scale solar PV it makes more sense to overbuild and curtail than build matched storage. For that reason, we will have tons of very inexpensive (duck curve) electricity available in the USA which will hasten transition to EVs. I'm not certain about distribution. In the past to current, economies of scale favored large power plant construction. However, that might be changing to favor small distributed construction. I'm not sure if we'll have massive solar farms in the Sunshine States with high voltage DC distribution or if solar farms will be smaller and spread all across the country. 

Once again, what will drive massive grid-scale solar PV investments in the 2020s? Year-after-year of global Quantitive Easing policy (low interest rates) due to the COVID19 depression and banker unwillingness to lend to fossil fuels. 

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

On 3/29/2020 at 12:29 PM, ronwagn said:

It seems like California has gotten some truth talkers and they are really backing off of their solar ambitions. Maybe they learned something from the semi fast train they are still trying to build. 

I resemble that remark!  lol   Seriously, the Green energy crowd here have the common sense of a Duckfart.  The hippies grew up, had kids, put 'em through the Socialist indoctrination camps errr college and now we have the AOC  crew...  Lawd help us!!   

[Brad Sutton + 2]

On 3/29/2020 at 8:56 AM, Meredith Poor said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/gcl-system-plans-to-build-world-s-biggest-solar-panel-plant?srnd=premium&sref=RzXyyOXY

If the US builds out 30Gw per year over the next 30 years, it would have 900Gw installed by 2050.

US peak power demand on a July day is about 400Gw.

The announcement in the link above applies to one company. If several companies build similar capacity, we will have a solar glut that trivializes the current oil glut.

There will not be enough silver to around for all of the electric cars and solar panels, not unless we open another 500 silver mines.  There goes the environmental benefit to the greens.

[Meredith Poor + 895]

8 hours ago, Brad Sutton said:

There will not be enough silver to around for all of the electric cars and solar panels, not unless we open another 500 silver mines.  There goes the environmental benefit to the greens.

Given existing technologies, I would agree with you. Whether we'll continue to use silicon like that is open to question.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

On 4/22/2020 at 11:59 AM, BradleyPNW said:

re: attached Lawrence Livermore US Energy Use charts. "Rejected energy" is mostly waste heat from spinning turbines/cam shafts with combustion. 

You can see transportation energy increased a little over the last 10 years, coal is dying, natural gas and windmills are growing. Solar is flat. However, solar PV will grow rapidly over the next 10 years because the USA will use quantitive easing for many years into the future in an attempt to recover from the COVID19 economic depression. Unlike natural gas, solar PV is capital heavy and fuel light. Consequently, low interest rates due to QE will attract investors to grid-scale solar PV installations.

 

Is it reverse day for you? 

QE makes the already expensive alternative energy sources FAR more expensive as your $$$ goes less distance. 

And no one will be investing in PV installations unless forced to as it works in very few places in this world where people actually live. 

Drum onwards....

[BradleyPNW + 282]

On 4/23/2020 at 6:28 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Is it reverse day for you? 

QE makes the already expensive alternative energy sources FAR more expensive as your $$$ goes less distance. 

And no one will be investing in PV installations unless forced to as it works in very few places in this world where people actually live. 

Drum onwards....

QE reduces interest rates. The important point is COVID caused an economic depression which means QE policies will last for years. That means investors will buy debt at low interest rates to finance capital intensive projects that don't have fuel costs: solar, wind.

Solar works everywhere. It works especially well when connected to continental grids. And our populations live near solar resources. Even if you don't build solar in the prime locations it's easy to compensate for less direct irradiation by installing more solar arrays. Which is what you do when interest rates are dirt cheap.