US Shale Resilience: Oil Industry Experts Say Shale Will Rise Again

[0R0 + 6,251]

9 hours ago, wrs said:

I think it depends on how they are flowing the wells now.  I have noticed that the new wells are being tested at high IP levels but then after that they choke them back and produce them at significantly lower levels.  For example, a first month well that has a 1400 bbl/day IP for oil will be allowed to produce 25kbbl the first month but there after it produces 15k consistently for the next 5 months.  They are flattening the curve if you will by pushing the production out on a longer time scale.  As long as they can extract the same amount of oil per well, it's fine and a better way to manage the production.

Great if you can do it. I just don't know on the technical side. Looks like matching production to forward contract obligations from selling futures up the calendar. Allows you to surge later on and can fund current drilling and fracking while rigs and crews are cheap, as I noted a week or more before, someone was claiming <$400/ft frack costs. About 25% below the best figure I saw before Feb 2020. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

31 minutes ago, Mike Shellman said:

There is no such thing as MVD. Its TD, TVD and/or TMD. In a horizontal well from the KB (kelly bushing) to the lateral toe, in feet, is TMD, total measured depth.

RKB even Rotary Kelly Bushing.

If you have read an IADC report it would look like Chinese to some people, the abbreviations used are an art in themselves as you know Mike, quite funny its really like another language.

Edited April 6, 2020 by James Regan

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

"There are some people who think you have to hate them in order to shoot them. I don’t think you do."
"There are some assholes in the world that just need to be shot."
--- General James Mattis, USMC

Semper Fi Sir!!

James Regan; "I think the deal should be a fair deal"

Jim, I beg to differ. Ever since the '73 Arab oil embargo on the US;  we were bent over a barrel (all puns intended) by MEA and No One cared so much as a thimble of purple panther p!ss for what it did too us.  So now after the rise of Frackin and the massive rejuvenation of the US Oil sector; we're supposed to wanna be 'fair'?!?!?!  Well as Grandaddy used ta say: "That dawg don't hunt"    

Fair; that's somethin you take the kids too durin the summer...

 

[wrs + 893]

Sorry guys, you are right, my aged mind put the wrong letters.  You are right, it's TMD.  

[wrs + 893]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Thanks I just learnt something Ive never heard it called  MVD before we always referred to it as TD Total Depth. What does the V stand for in MVD is in not the same as your TVD? Mind you I have been away from a drill floor for a while it may be a Shale Term.

 

1 hour ago, Mike Shellman said:

There is no such thing as MVD. Its TD, TVD and/or TMD. In a horizontal well from the KB (kelly bushing) to the lateral toe, in feet, is TMD, total measured depth.

Sorry, you guys are right, my brain is old and addled.  I spit out some nonsense there.  It's TMD.

[Mike Shellman + 548]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

RKB even Rotary Kelly Bushing.

If you have read an IADC report it would look like Chinese to some people, the abbreviations used are an art in themselves as you know Mike, quite funny its really like another language.

It is THE universal language of the oil industry and beautiful. BTW, it's amazing sometimes how many hands don't understand GL, RF, RKB and why it's important. Thanks, James. I am SIFN. 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 4/5/2020 at 10:08 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

“Suppose there's no deal and prices stay low.  Shale production dips temporarily, but stabilizes the second oil prices rise, a la 2014-2016.”

So let’s see....most of the rigs in shale country will shortly be stacked if the present scenario continues. Same with the frack spreads. The experienced people who know how to run this stuff are gone.

Then you have those nasty decline curves on any wells you open up. You can’t drill any new wells to take advantage of the initial production rates to maintain any production plateau - as you don’t have any people to crew the mothballed rigs and frack spreads!

So tell me again how the shale boys will bounce back from a ‘temporary’ dip in production, raise production and then stabilize that production? 

How did they do it in 2016? 

[James Regan + 1,776]

20 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

How did they do it in 2016? 

Surely thats a rhetorical question?

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

It is THE universal language of the oil industry and beautiful. BTW, it's amazing sometimes how many hands don't understand GL, RF, RKB and why it's important. Thanks, James. I am SIFN. 

Unless I am mistaken, this is NOT an actual IADC Report....maybe DIMS or something like it (hard to tell on a handphone).

Furthermore, unless I am further mistaken, there is:

TVD: True Vertical Depth, and

MD: Measured Depth

I have yet to see anything else on a kill sheet, where this would be critical. TVD for hydrostatics, MD to calculate volumes.

That’s it!

 

 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

47 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

How did they do it in 2016? 

Do what?

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Surely thats a rhetorical question?

 

Yes, but actually no. 

While I was wryly pointing out that it's been done before, I'm also genuinely curious as to how it was done.  Seems like an interesting case study. 

53 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Do what?

Resume production.  You asked how they would resume production after rigs were idled, workers sent home, etc.  The shale industry resumed production after the 2014-2016 crash.  How did they accomplish that?

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Unless I am mistaken, this is NOT an actual IADC Report....maybe DIMS or something like it (hard to tell on a handphone).

Furthermore, unless I am further mistaken, there is:

TVD: True Vertical Depth, and

MD: Measured Depth

I have yet to see anything else on a kill sheet, where this would be critical. TVD for hydrostatics, MD to calculate volumes.

That’s it!

 

 

 

You're being pedantic Douglas we both know and IADC report is 3ft by 2ft.

TVD and MD correct, on a kill sheet. (see attached)

Im a subsea person, so only did kill sheets as anyone in the doghouse normally did one regardless, while watching for any stupid behaviour or panicking drilling folks in relation to the the BOP during some very big kicks.

Keep the toolpusher away from the panel, he only knows enough to be dangerous.....

Thats it....

Edited April 7, 2020 by James Regan

[wrs + 893]

Well it's MD.  Man when my brain loses an acronym it's bad.  Here is what I was trying to think of but conflated it every possible wrong way.  TVD and MD are the two distances, the deepest penetration is TVD and MD is the total length, vertical plus horizontal.  This is a completion report for a shale well.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Yes, but actually no. 

While I was wryly pointing out that it's been done before, I'm also genuinely curious as to how it was done.  Seems like an interesting case study. 

Resume production.  You asked how they would resume production after rigs were idled, workers sent home, etc.  The shale industry resumed production after the 2014-2016 crash.  How did they accomplish that?

You still had workers available after that 2 year crash. Prior to those two years there were enough hands who stayed in the field that you could ramp up and then trai/grow as the shale oil industry ramped up. These may not have been the most experienced hands, and a cursory look at accidents/incidents/blow-outs during this period may support that assumption.

In the present case, especially the present extreme case, you are talking about a knock-on effect where you were recovering from one crash, experienced people were leaving the field, in all disciplines, and crews were just becoming efficient....when you are hit by another crash. The number of people that were twice bitten will NOT come back.

I believe the original post mentioned mothballing the rigs for 10 years. If this happens you will be starting from scratch personnel-wise. A certain amount of that equipment will not have been stacked properly and will be written off as well.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

You're being pedantic Douglas we both know and IADC report is 3ft by 2ft.

TVD and MD correct, on a kill sheet. (see attached)

Im a subsea person, so only did kill sheets as anyone in the doghouse normally did one regardless, while watching for any stupid behaviour or panicking drilling folks in relation to the the BOP during some very big kicks.

Keep the toolpusher away from the panel, he only knows enough to be dangerous.....

Thats it....

Jimmy,

This is a kill sheet for a surface stack! How did you get ahold of one!😂

Too many kill sheets in circulation, in my opinion, if the subsea guys are keeping copies as well. In an actual event, realistically only the toolpusher and night pushers kill sheet should be reviewed, agreed on and utilized. This is an insurance issue as the rig is possibly at risk.

In real life, it is best that the Drilling Supervisor (Company man), the Night Drilling Supervisor, the Day Pusher and the Night Pusher do a kill sheet individually then compared to make sure they agree before killing the well.

A switched on Drilling Superintendent will also prepare a kill sheet and double check with the Drilling Supervisor.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

For a long time, and maybe even yet, the IADC Report was the only, legally accepted, report.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You still had workers available after that 2 year crash. Prior to those two years there were enough hands who stayed in the field that you could ramp up and then trai/grow as the shale oil industry ramped up. These may not have been the most experienced hands, and a cursory look at accidents/incidents/blow-outs during this period may support that assumption.

In the present case, especially the present extreme case, you are talking about a knock-on effect where you were recovering from one crash, experienced people were leaving the field, in all disciplines, and crews were just becoming efficient....when you are hit by another crash. The number of people that were twice bitten will NOT come back.

I believe the original post mentioned mothballing the rigs for 10 years. If this happens you will be starting from scratch personnel-wise. A certain amount of that equipment will not have been stacked properly and will be written off as well.

That makes sense.

What of automation?  I keep reading articles about how there are fewer jobs in the field and more sitting in control rooms.  If they replace old rigs with new, automated rigs, would that alleviate the labor shortage?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

In relation to what BenFS said ... I saw a corporate presentation done by corridor resources.... now high water resources or something (management got teamed with raging river team) they had/have gas wells that they closed for 7-9 months /yr and only sold at winter peaks .debt free. They had the pressure build up chart and flows in the presentation.  They seemed to say that with the high pressure during production from the months of build up they would actually not loose production.  They could average same production at higher prices. So can oil wells completely close and re open? If so majors after consolidation could be the next opec with well closes at low prices and higher production on the oped when the prices resolve with same total barrels per life of well. 

Edit: even a majority close over enough wells would have the same effect. If 2 majors could both throttle 1M barrels a day by 400k. Then 50$ oil could be a thing of the past and same with 75$ + oil

Traders and hedgers could use the same info to stabilize the market in a not getting shafted by the ME way.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

23 hours ago, wrs said:

Yes, they use formation pressure and sometimes gas-lift which reinjects gas from the well back into the well bore.  The effect is to reduce the weight of the column and thus allow the fluids to come to the top more easily.  In any case, there are no pumps on shale wells, they are too deep for that technology to work.  The throttling comes from limiting the choke which is a valve that the flow passes through at the wellhead before it enters the separators.  So as the valve is closed more, less product comes out.  The flow may need some adjustment after the choke is restricted, I am not sure what that entails but I don't think it's a lot of effort.  

^ good answer.

The choke valve can be used to reduce product coming out of the well.

Here is a good definition of Choke Valves from  Enggcyclopedia

Choke valve is a type of control valves, mostly used in oil and gas production wells to control the flow of well fluids being produced. Another purpose that the choke valves serve is to kill the pressure from reservoir and to regulate the downstream pressure in the flowlines. Choke valves allow fluid flow through a very small opening, designed to kill the reservoir pressure while regulating the well production. The reservoir fluids can contain sand particles. Hence the choke valves are usually designed to handle an erosive service.

Typically oil and gas producing wells have two choke valves in series, one non-regulating choke valve and one regulating choke valve downstream to the non-regulating choke valve.

Non-regulating choke valves
Function of the non-regulating choke valve is to act as an on-off valve and kill the reservoir pressure to a desired operating value in the flowline. The opening in the choke valve is sized to kill the pressure when valve is fully open. The non-regulating choke valve is not used for flow regulation and hence is not sized for controlling the flow. Over the life of an oil production well, the reservoir pressure drop as fluids are depleted from the reservoirs. Hence with dropping reservoir pressure, the non-regulating valves may have to be changed to maintain the same well production levels. Hence over the life of an oil production well, the non-regulating choke valves can be replaced with valves having increasingly larger openings for flow.

Regulating choke valves
The regulating choke valve is a flow control valve which is designed to maintain a steady production level in the flowlines and production header. Regulating choke valve is an automatic valve and valve opening can be controlled via electric or pneumatic signal from the control panel to regulate the flow in downstream flowlines.

Among other applications, choke valves can be used liquid lines operating at very high pressures.

 

=====================

/ Over a decade ago, I compiled a 320 page oil & gas Valve Glossary.  PDF attached:

Valve Glossary - Tom Kirkman.pdf

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Tom Kirkman
Attached pdf

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This is a kill sheet for a surface stack! How did you get ahold of one!😂

Trying to keep it as simple as possible, if you want a deepwater kill sheet just ask.

Not many differences?

• Always maintain primary well control system - Hydrostatic Pressure
• Use secondary system- Shut in well 

Then consider:

• Choke line Friction
• Riser collapsing
• Dynamic MAASP
• Riser Displacement
• Trapped gas under the uppermost Annular
• Hydrates
• Just get a fire hose ready to keep the riser full if you dont have a riser sliding valve.
• EDS and get out of Dodge
• Easy Money
• Call town (loud voices in ear)
• Wait for chopper

Edited April 7, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Too many kill sheets in circulation, in my opinion, if the subsea guys are keeping copies as well. In an actual event, realistically only the toolpusher and night pushers kill sheet should be reviewed, agreed on and utilized. This is an insurance issue as the rig is possibly at risk.

Douglas we don't keep copies, in my experience anyone in the dog house was considered essential, if not please leave or stronger language was used.

Anyone in the dog house can do a kick sheet and compare, obviously the Subsea's was thrown in the bin. The risk lies in the moron company man or toolpusher who wants to push buttons. Ive been in situations where we have had to strip through annulars using the increase/decrease buttons while pulling (yes stripping out of the hole) tool joints through annulars as we were allowing to much influx through relying on the surge bottle, this is quite complicated and requires said owner of equipment to do correctly.

The rig being at risk is mitigated by having the minimum amount of SME during the operation, as much as you hate to say it during a Subsea well kill the Subsea moron is also required.

You love us really, loadsa cash for sitting down in our cavern until the turd hits the fan, then we rise to the challenge. lol.........

Edited April 7, 2020 by James Regan

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 hours ago, James Regan said:

Douglas we don't keep copies, in my experience anyone in the dog house was considered essential, if not please leave or stronger language was used.

Anyone in the dog house can do a kick sheet and compare, obviously the Subsea's was thrown in the bin. The risk lies in the moron company man or toolpusher who wants to push buttons. Ive been in situations where we have had to strip through annulars using the increase/decrease buttons while pulling (yes stripping out of the hole) tool joints through annulars as we were allowing to much influx through relying on the surge bottle, this is quite complicated and requires said owner of equipment to do correctly.

The rig being at risk is mitigated by having the minimum amount of SME during the operation, as much as you hate to say it during a Subsea well kill the Subsea moron is also required.

You love us really, loadsa cash for sitting down in our cavern until the turd hits the fan, then we rise to the challenge. lol.........

Working the annular regulator during stripping operations is not something covered on ANY kill sheet. For the life of me, I cannot conceive of any situation when you would be stripping OUT of the hole during a kill operation! If you took a kick while tripping (pipe off bottom), you would try to strip back INTO the hole! If things are really bad, you use the Volumetric Method to kill the well.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

That makes sense.

What of automation?  I keep reading articles about how there are fewer jobs in the field and more sitting in control rooms.  If they replace old rigs with new, automated rigs, would that alleviate the labor shortage?

There are no fully automated rigs. The drilling operation is not the same as an assembly line. No two wells are the same. You need experienced people in the loop. People sitting in a control room may be able to run production operations, but to date, have never been able to run a rig.

So no, automation would not alleviate the labor shortage.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, James Regan said:

Trying to keep it as simple as possible, if you want a deepwater kill sheet just ask.

Not many differences?

• Always maintain primary well control system - Hydrostatic Pressure
• Use secondary system- Shut in well 

Then consider:

• Choke line Friction
• Riser collapsing
• Dynamic MAASP
• Riser Displacement
• Trapped gas under the uppermost Annular
• Hydrates
• Just get a fire hose ready to keep the riser full if you dont have a riser sliding valve.
• EDS and get out of Dodge
• Easy Money
• Call town (loud voices in ear)
• Wait for chopper

Keep in mind James that I am not working as a Subsea Engineer, and have not worked on a floating rig in decades, yet I must pass the International Well Control Forum test, surface and subsea, at the Supervisor’s level every two years. This covers everything you have listed.

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

There are no fully automated rigs. The drilling operation is not the same as an assembly line. No two wells are the same. You need experienced people in the loop. People sitting in a control room may be able to run production operations, but to date, have never been able to run a rig.

So no, automation would not alleviate the labor shortage.

Guys, I was watching a live debate today from the Society of Petroleum Engineers and the subject was regarding the current situation for the LTO sector regarding working Engineers and graduating or students taking Petroleum based degrees. There were over 250 graduates and graduating students taking part, plus seasoned professionals.

All of the speakers were either laid offed or changing chosen degrees, many of the working Engineers were in the process of being laid off, there was a general attitude of despair as we can imagine. Some who had been laid off had left the Industry all together and started their own companies outside of the sector. Many were in the transition of leaving the region for low role positions in other petroleum sectors.

Most have agreed that the situation would be revisited at a later date, but if was highly possible they would not return to the sector and solicit other industries.

So the take away was that, the sector is indeed not favoured due to no guarantees from the Oil Majors or service companies. Also the timeframe for recovery being quoted was that this would impact the sector for possibly 10 years.