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[BLA + 1,666]

On 4/9/2020 at 8:24 AM, wrs said:

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Edited September 22, 2020 by BLA

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I have not been to Russia, or to Saudi Arabia for that matter. 

What I'm reading is that many if not most of the Rosneft wells have end-of-life water cut problems (presumably from an ingress of salt)--which I unfortunately am familiar with. 

Then I see a comment that the Ghawar wells are in the same pickle. 

Yet somehow Russia and KSA are set to flood the market. I have read quite a bit about the Yamal Peninsula wells and know that those wells are prolific but very, very gassy--so much that they built ice-cutters to run in front of a giant LNG tanker to traverse the Northern Sea Route to China. But if the Ghawar wells and the Rosneft field are mostly depleted, is all this talk just . . . talk? 

I am confused by exactly what the conjoined capabilities of Russia and KSA really are. My gut tells me that the Yamal is so complex to exploit that Putin's alleged breakeven price is false.

[Chris555 + 8]

On 4/7/2020 at 11:38 PM, BLA said:

Their fields are populated with 11,000 ancient wells. Very old. 

The wells are producing with a high percentage of water pressure.  These wells are 10:1 water to oil.  If these fields are shut down they will never be able to restart them.  Huge production lost.

Russian economy is 40% energy.  Not good. 

Somehow they still churn out 4.6 million barrels per day (I mean Rosneft alone), with a lifting cost of about $2.5/barrel. Please explain them why they should quit the business, Mr Oil Expert.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Chris555

[Boris Guskov 0]

On 4/7/2020 at 4:55 PM, James Regan said:

 

Im sure its a little more complicated

 

So it's not just a matter of saving one of the world's most important resources?  It's a little more complicated?  Hmmm.  I'm guessing you're right about that.  But one just has to feel sorry for those endangered billionaires  --  and, of course, all their employees, and the crude that's given to all of us.   Er . . .  well, sold to us.  

There must be a way we can bail them out too!  Let's make all this Right! 

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, Chris555 said:

Somehow they still churn out 4.6 million barrels per day (I mean Rosneft alone), with a lifting cost of about $2.5/barrel. Please explain them why they should quit the business, Mr Oil Expert.

Why should they quit the oil.business.

That would stupid .

You make no sense.

Edited April 10, 2020 by BLA

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Maybe a few facts for BLA about aging russian fields 

A professional report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies on the Russian oil sector. Below is a summary for the lazy

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf?fbclid=IwAR19KdONZKs0rsJ4GM_4lLs38regRzjE7ij_xlEA1fx1pv-vC2Wz7e7Frb0

Quote

 

Overall, then, it would seem that Russia does have the opportunity to meet the Russian Energy

Minister’s target to keep oil output over 11 mb/d for the next decade. Indeed, if the country’s import

substitution strategy is a success then it could even exceed the target, as there is little doubt that the

resources are in place. A combination of performance enhancement at existing fields, exploitation of

EOR techniques and hard-to-recover reserves, plus some efforts to maintain offshore oil output

should be enough to meet the overall goal. Perhaps the more interesting question, though, is what

could happen if sanctions are lifted. At that point, the potential of all these resources could be

released rapidly, leading to a surge in output towards 12 mb/d or above."

 

Secondly oil  and gas is not 40 % of russian economy. Last time as I check it I find something rather like 18 % of gdp not 40 % of gdp. I also found information that booming oil and gas sector is now 8 % of US economy - I have somes suspicions but I found such an information on official page. US economy of course is so big that Im not so sure its true but lets leave it in this way.

Lets look on oil rent from World Bank in comparison with other countries

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS?locations=RU

And if you are rightly pround of shale oil formations in USA please dont forget about Bazhenov formation in Western Syberia - hard to produce but biggest on the planet. Did you forget about oil deal of century with Exxon?  It was about this field. Gazprom Neft will try to start commercial production about 2025. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-shale-kemp/column-the-big-one-russias-bazhenov-shale-kemp-idUSL6N0PR1OP20140716

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-gazpromneft-shale/russias-gazprom-neft-sees-bazhenov-shale-oil-commercial-output-in-2025-idUSL8N1QI7OA

Edited September 22, 2020 by Tomasz