"Saudi Armada heading to U.S.", "Dumping" is a WTO VIOLATION.

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Who do you think he should listen to?

Jan Van Eck

[Otis11 + 551]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Ok, so you take it to a cold climate and store it there, or refrigerate it?! Must be something else. What?

Pump it up to the Canadian Tar Sands - the open pit mines. Flood the stuff. When needed, drain it back down, then mine the remaining sand goo like normal.

(Disclaimer - I have 0 experience with Tar Sands... just need somewhere to put the oil.)

[BLA + 1,666]

On 4/9/2020 at 2:01 PM, ronwagn said:

Xi and Putin rarely kill Americans, mainly their own people. I have clearly said, many times, that we should tariff dumped oil by anyone. I would tariff oil at any rate below $40 for starters. We do not need any oil except some heavy from Canada. 

Sounds like a plan to me

Edited April 10, 2020 by BLA

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

Yes, and this is the second time it has done so. My agenda is to keep the Western world strong, you have a problem with that? Sadly, not much of my advice was adhered to, and now our govt's realise what a mistake that was but it too late now. Game over red rover.

Perhaps you should run for office. This valuable advice does not seem to be getting the air time it deserves by simply posting it on OP.

[James Regan + 1,776]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Who do you think he should listen to?

Us we have this sorted out between us, if we collectively filtered 80% we may be onto a solution.

If I was Donald Trump I would probably have kept Rex Tillerson handy and most definitely Steve Bannon just to stir the shit up.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 hours ago, Wombat said:

Just tryna teach you economics and geo-politics 101 Doug. If you not interested, that ur problem. If you want the US to end up like Venezuela, that is fine by me. I love Chinese food.

Obviously you have been around more, and seen more than I have. Let’s just leave it at.

[Wombat + 1,028]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Obviously you have been around more, and seen more than I have. Let’s just leave it at.

Just show some bloody respect. I don't profess to be an oil engineer just because I read this blog but I am an expert in geo-politics and international economics so you would do well to heed my message. I predicted the GFC, which Americans arrogantly call "the great recession" and I am telling you that this one will be much worse. It may not affect you immediately, but just wait till you retire and find that no asset class will give you sufficient return on your money to live in dignity and comfort. U might want to pray that Trump gets re-elected and that he finally stops listening to those buffoons Kudlow and Munchkin. If the Dems get in, the US will be "double-stuffed".

[Wombat + 1,028]

15 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I know basically nothing about physically lifting oil, which which is why I asked for a baby-level tutorial on the subject, and the guys on this forum responded in an earlier topic thread (thanks, guys). To spew this back: Yes you can reduce the flow from a individual well, and you can shut in a well. If you shut in, you will be unable to recover some of these wells later with the likelihood of success falling for progressively poorer wells. This means you will lose a few of your good wells if you begin shutting them in. My tutors here were less clear on why y9u do not simply cut back production on all wells instead of turning off ("shutting in") some an leaving the others running. I think it's cost of operations. If it is cost of operations, then government intervention could preserve existing wells by enforcing some sort of transfer payments.   In any event, the economics of pumping and burning seem wrong to me. pumping costs money ("lifting costs").

Don't let them bamboozle you Dan, the main "lifting cost" is their labour. My solution may seem radical, but it is actually the lowest cost in a situation like this. Maybe not immediately, but certainly over the life of the well and the life of the pandemic. Many of the workers were going to lose their jobs anyway thanks to the new automated drilling rigs.

[Wombat + 1,028]

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Perhaps you should run for office. This valuable advice does not seem to be getting the air time it deserves by simply posting it on OP.

I don't give your President or my PM advice over OP u twit, I use unofficial channels because it is too sensitive for the public to hear.

 

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Perhaps you should run for office. This valuable advice does not seem to be getting the air time it deserves by simply posting it on OP.

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

17 hours ago, Wombat said:

Most economists would call it "market failure". If they can't turn off the spigots, they may just let the oil flow into a pit and burn it. They can flare gas so I guess they could come up with a way to flare oil?

@Wombat We do flare oil when well testing, ie after we have drilled a wildcat (random Exploration) or an Appraisal well (looking for the peripheral spot where the reservoir ends or is less productive), once the well is drilled out we run a temporary completion string (production gear) to simulate and gather data on the well while actually producing on a exploration rig. We would run it with said string and perforate the well while underbalaced hydrostatically to induce flow. The oil and gas mixtures a flown at certain rates to understand the performance of the well. We flow the well and then shut it in for predetermined periods, while the oil and gas goes to a temporary separation system, well testing set up. This oil and gas is then flared off, we regularly set the sea on fire its not uncommon at start up, this cycle continues for up to a month or more or less.

The well is then secured and capped off, move off location and start again.

Just for the record I am no Drilling Engineer, just monkey see monkey do, if I have said something thats just wrong well I guess I will pay dearly, but thats fine as I love to push buttons and learn, this technique has taught me quite a lot on this forum.

Edited April 10, 2020 by James Regan

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Just show some bloody respect. I don't profess to be an oil engineer just because I read this blog but I am an expert in geo-politics and international economics so you would do well to heed my message. I predicted the GFC, which Americans arrogantly call "the great recession" and I am telling you that this one will be much worse. It may not affect you immediately, but just wait till you retire and find that no asset class will give you sufficient return on your money to live in dignity and comfort. U might want to pray that Trump gets re-elected and that he finally stops listening to those buffoons Kudlow and Munchkin. If the Dems get in, the US will be "double-stuffed".

I bow to your superior geopolitical knowledge and knowledge of international economics...again.

How is that for ‘bloody respect’? 

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I bow to your superior geopolitical knowledge and knowledge of international economics...again.

How is that for ‘bloody respect’? 

You forgot "Ma Grace" first, have you not see Game of Thrown's.......Now which character would you be Douglas?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 minute ago, James Regan said:

@Wombat We do flare oil when well testing, ie after we have drilled a wildcat (random Exploration) or an Appraisal well (looking for the peripheral spot where the reservoir ends or is less productive), once the well is drilled out we run a temporary completion string (production gear) to simulate and gather data on the well while actually producing on a exploration rig. We would run it with said string and perforate the well while underbalaced hydrostatically to induce flow. The oil and gas mixtures a flown at certain rates to understand the performance of the well. We flow the well and then shut it in for predetermined periods, while the oil and gas goes to a temporary separation system, well testing set up. This oil and gas is then flared off, we regularly set the sea on fire its not uncommon at start up, this cycle continues for up to a month or more or less.

The well is then secured and capped off, move off location and start again.

It’s essentially the study of the transient pressure wave through the reservoir and the reflected wave. This allows you to estimate the distance to the nearest reservoir boundary, which lets you calculate the oil in place. But what do I know?

Yep, you could flow the oil to a pit an burn it. Not a problem if you don’t mind wasting a national asset which may be valuable in the future.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 minutes ago, James Regan said:

You forgot "Ma Grace" first, have you not see Game of Thrown's.......Now which character would you be Douglas?

I have never seen ‘Game of Thrown’s’ or ‘Game of Thrones’, either one, so I can’t answer that question.

[James Regan + 1,776]

Just now, Douglas Buckland said:

I have never seen ‘Game of Thrown’s’ or ‘Game of Thrones’, either one, so I can’t answer that question.

See I'm dumb as shit, thrown haha I need to be in a special place 😂

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

They just extended lockdown by two weeks😖

This is NOT the soft Northern Hemisphere version. I am not happy.

[James Regan + 1,776]

I think you would be Lord Varys I will take Tyrion Lannisters job, see your bollocking me as usual, but at least were practicing social distancing..

We have had another month rammed up our Jacksy, but I am actually loving it, I'm a hermit anyway, so I don't need to run stupid erronds like buying food etc, I have an argument now. 

Be happy you could be in  Busted Shovel - Texas - your living the dream in Asia- be thankful for what you have. And go look in the mirror and have a word with yourself......

Edited April 10, 2020 by James Regan
Oh Lord Varys has no knob by the way lol.......

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 4/8/2020 at 8:54 AM, BLA said:

Imagine you're a US solider that has been deployed to Saudi Arabia , WTF do you tell your family you're putting your life on the line for? 

 

So Saudis can destroy your U.S. shale industry unencumbered ? 

At the beginning of the Global War on Terror, some Americans still had a deep sense of patriotism and gladly volunteered to serve their country.  The wealthy, the professional classes, and the liberals learned better around the time of the Vietnam war, but as of 2001, large swathes of America were still patriotic. 

19 years of pointless warfare and VA incompetence have corrected that.  Even those of us who were raised patriotic do not pass this mentality to the next generation.  Instead, we teach young people that the military should be avoided unless something can be gained from it.  If you must join, get in, get valuable training, and get out.  Your country is not a beacon of freedom and prosperity; it is an empire.  The empire can be lucrative if you play your cards right, but neither it nor its citizens care about you.  Do not make the mistake of caring about or sacrificing for people who will throw you under the bus the second they find it convenient. 

So the answer to that question is this: you tell them you're putting your life on the line for a paycheck, and you'll cease doing so the second better options are available. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by BenFranklin'sSpectacles
Typo. Removed strong language to maintain some professionalism.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 4/8/2020 at 1:44 PM, Hassan Abdullahi said:

So what exactly are we looking at is the US going to make major cuts in Production as part of the deal? and I'm not talking about Trump's "Automatic Cuts" I'm talking about  "Actual Production cuts". Cause if not I don't think a solution would come out of the meeting tomorrow.

Given that the US could wreck the entire Middle East by simply walking away, I suspect a deal could be made without the US cutting a drop. 

Now that oil is plentiful at low prices, what leverage does OPEC have? 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 4/8/2020 at 11:15 AM, Jan van Eck said:

$30 oil is entirely sustainable.  It becomes an issue of what else the seller of that oil has to forego. In the case of the Saudis, it is apparently the vast set of payments made to the extended princes and underlings who have developed these tastes for very fancy, and very expensive, automobiles, women, personal jets, villas, whatever.  So the real issue becomes:  how to tone down the welfare payments?  

I remind readers that, at one time, crude oil traded at around $3.10 a barrel.  In today's money  (after the grind of inflation), that might translate to about $15.  Texas made plenty of money back in the day at three bucks.  Today at $30 it can still make money.  So can all the other suppliers.  Don't kid yourself about the cries for "more money;"  everyone does that.  

I once had a man complain to me that he was underpaid, implying that he was worth much more.  So I asked him, "Has it ever occurred to you that you are being overpaid?"   He had no response to that. 

Are the Saudis being overpaid?  I would suggest, Yes. 

IIRC, shale's death was reported during the 2014-2016 oil price crash.  Shale proceeded to thrive at lower prices. 

Once again, shale's death is being reported due to a price crash.  I imagine the shale industry has some room to cut costs, but how much?  Or are you saying that shale will survive because prices will rebound somewhat, allowing drilling to resume? 

How do you see this playing out? 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 4/9/2020 at 5:38 AM, Alex Svobodin said:

WTF are the US soldiers doing there, half a world away, anyway?

Drawing paychecks and gaining educational benefits, mostly.  I imagine they also function as a tripwire, deterrent, or some such, but that role has become increasingly debatable. 

I've noticed that the US is slowly withdrawing troops and equipment from parts of the Middle East: the nukes were removed from Incerlik, bases in Iraq have been abandoned, command and control functions in the UAE were returned to the states, there's a serious effort to withdraw from Afghanistan, etc.  It's possible the US has recognized the pointless expense of defending the Middle East, but change takes time. 

Does anyone else have information on US military presence changes around the world? 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

57 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I think you would be Lord Varys I will take Tyrion Lannisters job, see your bollocking me as usual, but at least were practicing social distancing..

We have had another month rammed up our Jacksy, but I am actually loving it, I'm a hermit anyway, so I don't need to run stupid erronds like buying food etc, I have an argument now. 

Be happy you could be in  Busted Shovel - Texas - your living the dream in Asia- be thankful for what you have. And go look in the mirror and have a word with yourself......

That should be ‘...we’re practicing...’, and “erronds” is not a word.

Who is bastardizing the Queen’s English now?🤔

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

At the beginning of the Global War on Terror, some Americans still has a deep sense of patriotism and gladly volunteered to serve their country.  The wealthy, the professional classes, and the liberals learned better around the time of the Vietnam war, but as of 2001, large swathes of America were still patriotic. 

19 years of pointless warfare and VA incompetence have corrected that.  Even those of us who were raised patriotic do not pass this mentality to the next generation.  Instead, we teach young people that the military should be avoided unless something can be gained from it.  If you must join, get in, get valuable training, and get the hell out.  Your country is not a beacon of freedom and prosperity; it is an empire.  The empire can be lucrative if you play your cards right, but neither it nor its citizens care about you.  Do not make the mistake of caring about or sacrificing for people who will throw you under the bus the second they find it convenient. 

So the answer to that question is this: you tell them you're putting your life on the line for a paycheck, and you'll cease doing so the second better options are available. 

If that is the prevailing attitude, the Pentagon may as well go to drone warfare only. Would save an absolute fortune and be ten times as effective?

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

3 hours ago, Wombat said:

...just wait till you retire and find that no asset class will give you sufficient return on your money to live in dignity and comfort."

In other words, life will be as it was for most of history: those who have families and invest in real, productive assets will be fine.  Those who fritter their money away on ethereal, effortless "investments" will find themselves destitute. 

I'd argue that anyone who knows how an economy works could have told you from day one the current system is a Ponzi scheme.  Once the system was set in motion, no politician on earth could prevent the failure of financial "assets".  There's plenty of fun to be had along the way, but only a fool would bet his future on this system. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

4 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

In other words, life will be as it was for most of history: those who have families and invest in real, productive assets will be fine.  Those who fritter their money away on ethereal, effortless "investments" will find themselves destitute. 

I'd argue that anyone who knows how an economy works could have told you from day one the current system is a Ponzi scheme.  Once the system was set in motion, no politician on earth could prevent the failure of financial "assets".  There's plenty of fun to be had along the way, but only a fool would bet his future on this system. 

I agree. Have always said the modern western economy is a ponzi scheme, but if you think property is a real, productive asset, I think you will find it performs just as poorly as the stock market over the next decade.