The GREAT OPEC+ Agreement

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Just now, Douglas Buckland said:

Who you be talkin’ bout?😂

Douglas, don't take it personal.  All I did is remove one word in a comment, to avoid an imminent food fight.

While the word "dipshit" is not exactly a 4 letter word, the other party got offended, so I replaced the word dipshit with ******* and advised not to call names.  And then you ended up coming up with a much better and wittier comeback than simply name calling.

Others have used much harsher language, and as a moderator I allowed it, as the context permitted it in the situation.  It's a judgement call.  And sometimes moderators don't see it.  I sure don't read every comment or every thread here.

And namecalling in comedy threads is not a problem (like you and James going at it hammer and tong with the hilarious insults).

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Douglas, don't take it personal.  All I did is remove one word in a comment, to avoid an imminent food fight.

While the word "dipshit" is not exactly a 4 letter word, the other party got offended, so I replaced the word dipshit with ******* and advised not to call names.  And then you ended up coming up with a much better and wittier comeback than simply name calling.

Others have used much harsher language, and as a moderator I allowed it, as the context permitted it in the situation.  It's a judgement call.  And sometimes moderators don't see it.  I sure don't read every comment or every thread here.

And namecalling in comedy threads is not a problem (like you and James going at it hammer and tong with the hilarious insults).

Was just winding you up Tom! No harm, no foul!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

14 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Now I feel better.  I just knew I was entitled to a group hug!  🤗

Group hugs are okay, but you’ve got to watch @James Regan closely!

Edited April 11, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Ggg

[Angola + 2]

On 4/10/2020 at 2:26 AM, BLA said:

Did Trump cut a deal with Saudis ? No tariffs if OPEC cuts 10mm ? 

Saudis only really cut 1.5 mm not 4mm and that's only if the Saudis  comply.

You know Russia won't. 

The rest of OPEC+  are supposed to divi up the other 5 mm.  That's a joke too. 

Did Trump really promise Saudis no tariffs ? Tell me it ain't so. 

Looks like Trump is protecting Majors and Saudis or just plain stupid. 

The Saudis must have some dirt on the Donald. 

In fact, based on my calculations, taking into account october 2018 Opec's oil output and Febreuary 2020's output, if the baseline is october 2018, OPEC is only cutting 870 thousands barrels per day assuming Libya output will remain off. If Libya starts pumping lets say tomorrow at full speed, in reality, OPEC will cut o barrels. Bear in mind that in February OPEC's output was just 27,7mn barrels.

So, that's a joke

 

[dennis smith + 2]

Hello, I am new to site.

Just a simple question.

Where can a person find a current estimated world oil inventory (above ground already pumped)?  Where can a person find the current total demand?

I am sure it will not be 100% accurate but should be an intelligent guess.

Regards, dennis

 

 

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Group hugs are okay, but you’ve got to watch @James Regan closely!

@Douglas Buckland love you too..... Im like a hungry Bass and you guys know it... Im trying to be less Vinegar and to be honest I feel good about myself. I think it was an article on CNN that spurred me on was about Saying its okay, and giving your self the permission to say its ok to be a little depressed. It's changed my life. Before giving anyone the hairy side of my hand or tongue I just give myself permission and let rip.

I could be a mental health advisor for CNN no problem, patient and doctor what a combo.

On a serious note I have lived around Mental Health and its not for laughing at, if you have lived with it the only you can do is laugh about it as its very hard, and I count my blessings that It worked out in the end - Serious James Talking.

Respectfully

Edited April 11, 2020 by James Regan

[Angola + 2]

23 hours ago, wrs said:

Looks like Mexico is crapping on the OPEC cuts anyway so no deal.  We need to stop the imports.

Hi

OPEC is cutting only 870 thousands barrels per day. not more than that. Taking into consideration the baseline of october 2018 and what was the output in February 2020. Also assuming that Libya will remain offline. 

So, I agree. It is a joke. 

I believe market will balance itself in the coming weeks or months. in the end, fundamentals will prevails.

[James Regan + 1,776]

7 hours ago, Wombat said:

I hope that "Mr. Moderate" don't gimme 3rd and final for that. After all, Doug has been quite offensive towards me and Jan Van Eck called me dopey but I bet neither got a point against them?!?

Mr Wombat (Australian for Idiot) 😂 things can go really sideways on here and it s normally folks who don't use their own name, first thing to do is use your real name and you become almost bullet proof by default, as you won't fire too many bullets and when you do the forum knows its a .50Cal you are using.

There are assholes all over the world, and we can't get on with everyone, I've never liked the idea of even blocking someone that annoys me as they will be just talking behind your back and you won't know but the rest of the forum does, not a good situation. Better to not rise to the bait unless social suicide is the order of the day, I've thought about it in the past and couldn't jump as I would miss Baldy Dougie the most popular member ranking every week for the last four months by just being abusive to people, thats the definition of Ironic.

Respect

Edited April 11, 2020 by James Regan
Left eye looking a Dougie sitting on his thrown.....

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

17 minutes ago, dennis smith said:

Hello, I am new to site.

Just a simple question.

Where can a person find a current estimated world oil inventory (above ground already pumped)?  Where can a person find the current total demand?

I am sure it will not be 100% accurate but should be an intelligent guess.

Regards, dennis

If anyone knew that; they would make Billions.  Good Luck

If someone does know, they sure as Hell will not tell you.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“On a serious note I have lived around Mental Health and its not for laughing at, if you have lived with it the only you can do is laugh about it as its very hard, and I count my blessings that It worked out in the end - Serious James Talking.”

Are you referring to the drilling business in general?😂

(Not Serious Doug talking...)

[Wombat + 1,028]

28 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Mr Wombat (Australian for Idiot) 😂 things can go really sideways on here and it s normally folks who don't use their own name, first thing to do is use your real name and you become almost bullet proof by default, as you won't fire too many bullets and when you do the forum knows its a .50Cal you are using.

There are assholes all over the world, and we can't get on with everyone, I've never liked the idea of even blocking someone that annoys me as they will be just talking behind your back and you won't know but the rest of the forum does, not a good situation. Better to not rise to the bait unless social suicide is the order of the day, I've thought about it in the past and couldn't jump as I would miss Baldy Dougie the most popular member ranking every week for the last four months by just being abusive to people, thats the definition of Ironic.

Respect

All I know James, is that a few weeks ago, I suggested to Tom that peak oil was in 2019 and he thought I was crazy back then. Look who laughing now  I may have mental health problems, but I am no idiot. I topped the Australian Maths Competition, have 3 uni degrees (physics, environmental science and business), which is why it is fact that if I make a bold prediction, you can take it to the bank. Even without the corona virus, oil was heading for the dust-bin due to the financial crisis that started brewing last September (when the repo market went berserk), in combination with the rise of Tesla and EV's in general. I am trying to let all of these idiots know how the situation will play out, but they all know best  Doesn't matter, they be laughin on the other sides of their face soon enough  I am not expecting any of them to apologize and I really don't care. Market opens on Tuesday and I will be too busy to talk to morons  

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

32 minutes ago, Wombat said:

All I know James, is that a few weeks ago, I suggested to Tom that peak oil was in 2019 and he thought I was crazy back then. Look who laughing now  I may have mental health problems, but I am no idiot. I topped the Australian Maths Competition, have 3 uni degrees (physics, environmental science and business), which is why it is fact that if I make a bold prediction, you can take it to the bank. Even without the corona virus, oil was heading for the dust-bin due to the financial crisis that started brewing last September (when the repo market went berserk), in combination with the rise of Tesla and EV's in general. I am trying to let all of these idiots know how the situation will play out, but they all know best  Doesn't matter, they be laughin on the other sides of their face soon enough  I am not expecting any of them to apologize and I really don't care. Market opens on Tuesday and I will be too busy to talk to morons  

When you feel the need to impress people with how smart you are, you usually aren’t.

Degrees, in and of themselves, are useless outside of academia, unless you have experience to go with them.

So Wombat, besides being the smartest guy, or gal (hard to ascertain if you won’t use your real name) on this forum, what have you done in life besides earn degrees while avoiding the real world?

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 4/10/2020 at 7:07 AM, Jan Henrik Larsen said:

Donald Dumb suggested a 10 PCT cut - he got that - with a smile   You would have been far better of if he did not suggest anything - but instead asked them to match demand right now. Soon a swarm of Saudi tankers will arrive and pull out the oil plug. God save the shale. Yes BLA you are closing in to something ...

First post - first two words- what an Epitaph....

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I really don't know what you want.

OPEC and Russia have been cutting production for years now they are actually saving shale oil producers.

The problem for years is not OPEC or Russia, but shale oil producers who are increasing production at such a rate that the demand for oil cannot keep up.

It is hard for OPEC to suddenly cut production by half or even 20 %.

I am personally in favor of the position that if the US is a supporter of the free market, then there is no place for producers of the most expensive oil in this market because .no one can force producers with lower production costs to voluntarily give up market shares, and certainly not through unilateral sanctions on Iran or Venezuela.

It just so happens that high cost oil producer is shale oil.

So the obvious condition is that the most expensive producers should participate in the cuts at least as much as producers with the lowest production costs.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

hard to ascertain if you won’t use your real name

This is actually a problem on this forum.  On professional forums, it is normal to use one's own name.  For example, on LinkedIn.

On anonymous forums, obviously, this is not the case.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

27 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

It is hard for OPEC to suddenly cut production by half or even 20 %.

You miss the point: I don't care how much oil the Saudis produce, or Putin either--I just don't want it over here.

[wrs + 893]

6 hours ago, dennis smith said:

Hello, I am new to site.

Just a simple question.

Where can a person find a current estimated world oil inventory (above ground already pumped)?  Where can a person find the current total demand?

I am sure it will not be 100% accurate but should be an intelligent guess.

Regards, dennis

 

 

 

JODI

https://www.jodidata.org/oil/

Couple of months in arrears though.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

9 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I really don't know what you want.

OPEC and Russia have been cutting production for years now they are actually saving shale oil producers.

The problem for years is not OPEC or Russia, but shale oil producers who are increasing production at such a rate that the demand for oil cannot keep up.

It is hard for OPEC to suddenly cut production by half or even 20 %.

I am personally in favor of the position that if the US is a supporter of the free market, then there is no place for producers of the most expensive oil in this market because .no one can force producers with lower production costs to voluntarily give up market shares, and certainly not through unilateral sanctions on Iran or Venezuela.

It just so happens that high cost oil producer is shale oil.

So the obvious condition is that the most expensive producers should participate in the cuts at least as much as producers with the lowest production costs.

Tomasz, the only reason there is a market for shale at all is that the market is not free. OPEC is a cartel, which is a form of monopoly. In a free market the producers compete for the consumers and the price drops to the cost of production plus a small profit. At this "free-market price, Saudi oil would dominate the market at roughly $20/bbl. OPEC set their price so high that high-priced shale could underbid it. While the US government and society prefer a free market, we also must consider our national security. OPEC attacked the US by manipulating the market in the 1973 oil embargo. We tried to build some defenses, but as a massive net oil importer, we were at their mercy and we remained there until the revolutionary new shale techology was developed starting more or less in 2005. By 2014, we were no longer dependent on OPEC oil, and they attacked us again, this time by crashing the price. We weathered that storm at some cost, but early this year, pre-pandemic, they decided to try again. This demonstrated that they will not play by free market rules, and they cannot be trusted. We need to defend our own oil and quit using any OPEC oil at all, at any price down to and below zero dollars/bbl, as a matter of national security. We can continue to have a free market economy within the community of nations that agrees to join our market and exclude or tarrif OPEC oil.

The current pandemic is a huge disruptor that completely supersedes all of the above and will continue to do so until the lockdowns are over and the associated consumption levels eventually recover. We must get past this pandemic before we can see what the free-market price will be. During this period the US government will need to support the entire economy, including the oil industry, in some manner so we can have an orderly recovery after the lockdown. This is a separate problem from defending against OPEC.

[Arnon Shub + 1]

Trump wanted but he is not stupid

Why  to cut ? then To buy from Saudi Arabia?

Trump will preserve oil as much as possible (cheaper for the economy!)

Oil price does not rise !! The needs of the company here are rising but the $ 25 barrel range is devastating for the whole world.

I did not put in the internal budget problems of each country but if you put in you will understand that Russia is much more vulnerable.

And ... who laughs all the way to the bank ..? That's right from the Corona Generators.

[יאן דיגילוב + 3]

Trump just want to show he have done something, as always once show men always a show men.. we all know best solution is Tariffs  but may be his twits will save the market ? 

all we know he doesnt want to put Tariffs on his dear Saudy Body! 

 

Put up guess we will see who smartest ! 

[nsdp + 449]

2 hours ago, יאן דיגילוב said:

Trump just want to show he have done something, as always once show men always a show men.. we all know best solution is Tariffs  but may be his twits will save the market ? 

all we know he doesnt want to put Tariffs on his dear Saudy Body! 

 

Put up guess we will see who smartest ! 

Three words for you Smoot Hawley Tariff.

[יאן דיגילוב + 3]

56 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Three words for you Smoot Hawley Tariff.

So you tell oil stock is a buy ?  it is the solution, agreement between rivaled ?

for the Smoot tariffs!  its not 1930 and this is only on the war of oil Tariffs!

[BillKidd + 139]

On 4/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, James Regan said:

...Its all so fkd up now, I'm just biting the bullet and really have no idea of what will happen, I should be worried about the business but I just have this optimistic little voice in my head saying to me that things will get worked out...

That's what all of us who were young oilmen thought in 1986. It didn't come back. For about 17 years. The majority of people in the oilbiz left the oilbiz. Unless you were "old money" oil family, your goose was cooked. It was pitiful. 17 years is a dang long time. I hope for the best but wow, I just don't know how this could work out well. The U.S. oilbiz in 2020 is almost entirely shale. And they were not making money. From a selfish perspective, my only real hope is for natural gas price to double. Quick, lol. Probably won't be quick.

[jose gregorio Martinez 0]

Will this agreement of a production cut agreement work this time? .... Times of Changes ....

[nsdp + 449]

2 minutes ago, יאן דיגילוב said:

So you tell oil stock is a buy ?  it is the solution, agreement between rivaled ?

for the Smoot tariffs!  its not 1930 and this is only on the war of oil Tariffs!

I gather  you are unfamiliar with how a tariff works on even one product especially oil/gas products.   Putting a tariff on imported oil is just like putting a tax surcharge on every tax payer in the country.  

Second, like most posters here you are ignorant of refinery design and operation.  Refineries are designed to operate with a specific gravity of crude and a maximum sulfur/heavy metals content .    Change that spec and operating efficiency goes to hell in a hand basket.  For example Valero has  thirteen refineries, Only three(the smallest) can run shale- Eagle Ford without importing and blending heavy oil imports using 2 or three imported barrels for every one light domestic barrel.   That is why MARS crude sells for more than WTI. That ratio of heavy -light refining capacity  is very typical across every refiner in the Gulf Coast.

Your tariff idea would close 80+% of PADD III refineries.