Trumps Oil Industry....

[RSD + 41]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

That brute in the middle was stolen from India, and rests on the head of the rightful owner. What did the Romans ever do for us? We are just sitting back watching the fun, we will rule the waves again.

The Romans taught everyone how to build decent roads - but that lesson seems to have been lost about a hundred-odd years ago when someone decided to turn oil into a road surface.

[RSD + 41]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Your assumption is that Iran would go to all out war after losing a few gunboats.

 

 

They probably will because they know that their masses of gunboats/swarm missile attacks are capable of sinking or heavily damaging U.S. aircraft carriers and they also know that the U.S. Navy doesn't have enough carriers to meet its current commitments so won't be able to send replacements easily.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

58 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Well, just for starters, without Pine Gap, u cld not communicate with ur subs in the region. That wld make them toothless.

Is that the sum of your knowledge concerning Pine Gap and the facility at Alice Springs? I thought you were the expert!

Five Eyes, Echelon, NSA....any of this ring a bell?

Hint: Go to Google Earth and compare this to the facility at Buckley AFB in Colorado.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 minute ago, RSD said:

They probably will because they know that their masses of gunboats/swarm missile attacks are capable of sinking or heavily damaging U.S. aircraft carriers and they also know that the U.S. Navy doesn't have enough carriers to meet its current commitments so won't be able to send replacements easily.

True I suppose if the US Navy just sits out at sea as a target. The Navy wouldn’t be going it alone.

That said, as usual, our allies are nowhere in sight. I suppose the Straits of Hormuz are not of interest to anyone else... Typical.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

9 hours ago, RSD said:

The U.S. offshore industry isn't the problem and never has been.  Alaska limits onshore oil exploration (and thus in effect production) by limiting the number of leases that it releases each year - Texas etc. needs to do the same to control production at sustainable levels.
 

The timing of COVID-19 hasn't helped the situation, but certainly that can't be blamed on the Saudis, and their shipments to the U.S. were being organised before the world discovered that America would make a complete mess of managing the virus.  The blame for the Saudi shipments probably lies with the Russians more than anyone - the Russians wouldn't agree to a new OPEC+ deal so that left everyone doing their own thing and so the Saudis had to find more buyers for their increased production.

Not sure what you're saying to me here. My concern is the price of oil. It's too low, so not profitable for offshore. We need a higher price because our cost to produce is higher. Oil price too low; my job goes away.

Texas has regulations, but even though I live here, Texas regulations aren't my concern. I design for deepwater drillships. Those ships operate all over the world. State coastline jurisdiction is only 3 miles out, I think? Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. 

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/21/2020 at 4:28 AM, Shakil said:

Yes. Super market stacking shelves. Whatever job you can take. That is the American way!

You seem to really misunderstand America

[Hotone + 412]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

U know, Australia has just pipped Qatar as worlds largest LNG producer but US plans to sell more LNG than Australia and Qatar COMBINED???????? WTF was America thinking? Where is the market? U only have 5 trains out of 42 so far, but that is a lot of LNG with nowhere to go. I have heard that Chevron wants to TRIPLE output of the Permian within 5 years, again, where on Earth is the market? There is a graph that has been shown on this site several times explaining that "every time the Saudis try to kill US shale, they fail". Perhaps the dopey US oil execs shld turn their focus to Russia, given they are the main competitor? Indeed, they would do well to read Aesop's Fables. There is a tale about the bear and the lion fighting over a bit of food, and the fox comes and takes the food while they busy fighting. Russia has "stolen" America's chance to export LNG to Europe and China (Power of Siberia, Nordstream 2, TurkStream), coz US was too busy focusing on Australia, and has lost market share in oil to Russia coz it was too busy focussing on SA? Talk about dumb. The fox has already eaten America's dinner, all gone now!

The US sees no reason China will not honor its commitments to buy an additional $52 billion in US energy products over the next two years despite the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

As part of the Phase 1 trade deal struck in January, China agreed to buy an additional $18.5 billion in US energy goods in 2020 and $33.9 billion in 2021, compared with 2017 levels. The deal called for LNG, crude oil, refined products and coal purchases, but did not set volumes.

"I think the Chinese have every intention of honoring their agreements," he said, adding: "You'll see considerations given to the coronavirus [outbreak's] impact on demand overall, but as we look at it today, I don't think there's any expectation that anyone's not going to honor the agreements that they struck in Phase 1, so we have every expectation that they will."

At today's prices, China will be buying all America's export output

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/030520-us-sees-china-following-through-with-trade-deal-despite-coronavirus-outbreak-energy-secretary

[Ron Ron + 18]

17 hours ago, Valerie Williams said:

Elaborate

 

Simply, increase the use of electric cars, solar and wind to replace the imported oil. We live in upstate NY.  We installed solar panels ~10 years ago. Our panels generate 99%of the electricity we use, which includes an electric vehicle. Thanks to the EV it took us about 8 years to recoup the cost of the panels. In New York State we have three nuclear power plants that are past their life expectancy. Turns out it is cheaper to replace the power plants with a distributed solar and wind production system than building 2 to 3 new gas fired power plants. 

[surrept33 + 609]

8 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Not sure what you're saying to me here. My concern is the price of oil. It's too low, so not profitable for offshore. We need a higher price because our cost to produce is higher. Oil price too low; my job goes away.

Texas has regulations, but even though I live here, Texas regulations aren't my concern. I design for deepwater drillships. Those ships operate all over the world. State coastline jurisdiction is only 3 miles out, I think? Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. 

Yeah, but who is to blame for this? Without the sheer amount of onshore US tight oil exploitation, I think oil would likely have been north of $100 before COVID and it would probably have attracted a lot of investments offshore.  The closest situation historically would probably be like before 2008. 

The TRRC absolutely has the power to make the more sustainable long term for everyone. The problem (admittedly with a lot of hindsight bias) is that the best time for them to act would probably have been years ago. Their actions would have as a side effect, restricted the total amount of cheap credit flowing to operators that cared about nothing but expansion of production above any other determinants.

Right now, access to new sources of financing is already limited, so I think the effect of restrictions of output is a lot more muted compared to market forces.

[RSD + 41]

35 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

True I suppose if the US Navy just sits out at sea as a target. The Navy wouldn’t be going it alone.

That said, as usual, our allies are nowhere in sight. I suppose the Straits of Hormuz are not of interest to anyone else... Typical.

It depends on how far out to sea they are when the Iranians send out the masses of gunboats - nearest air force support would have to be scrambled from Qatar, and with 350 gunboats streaming towards the fleet... and if the U.S. fleet enters the Gulf of Oman then they are in range of anti-ship missiles even when the gunboats are along the Iranian coastline - the Iranian gunboats could send 700 anti-ship missiles towards the fleet without leaving the protection of their land-based anti-aircraft defences - even if only 5% of the missiles got through the fleet's defences... - we all saw what happened to the various British warships when they were hit by one exocet in the Falklands War

[RSD + 41]

44 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Not sure what you're saying to me here. My concern is the price of oil. It's too low, so not profitable for offshore. We need a higher price because our cost to produce is higher. Oil price too low; my job goes away.

Texas has regulations, but even though I live here, Texas regulations aren't my concern. I design for deepwater drillships. Those ships operate all over the world. State coastline jurisdiction is only 3 miles out, I think? Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. 

Just saying that America has to take its share of the blame for the low oil price but the fault for that doesn't lie with America's offshore oil industry

• America was already producing too much oil due to shale oilers producing every bit of oil that they can find
• then America's demand for oil fell much further than it would have done had it managed COVID-19 better - "15 cases and it will just disappear" was a do nothing and the problem will go away of its own accord strategy - that's not how highly contagious viruses work

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/21/2020 at 11:43 AM, El Nikko said:

oil prices ever going up to where Saudi needs them to be which is $60-80.

Wait. What?
Maybe I’m wrong, but all the reading I’ve done so far has led me to believe that in the Middle East, their break-even oil price is $10-15/bbl. Shale needs $25-30/bbl to break even, and I know personally that my company doesn’t start to get orders for work until the price is $55-60/bbl and looks to hold stable for a while.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

7 hours ago, Wombat said:

On ya bish

I have no idea what that means, but back at ya. 😁

[Valerie Williams + 129]

7 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Food fight cleaned up in aisle 3.  Some comments are now hidden, to prevent a food fight from escalating.

Joking around is fine and encouraged.  But nastiness is not ok.

 

What’d I miss? 😜

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, RSD said:

The Romans taught everyone how to build decent roads - but that lesson seems to have been lost about a hundred-odd years ago when someone decided to turn oil into a road surface.

Ok apart from the roads, what did the Romans really do for us???

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

True I suppose if the US Navy just sits out at sea as a target. The Navy wouldn’t be going it alone.

That said, as usual, our allies are nowhere in sight. I suppose the Straits of Hormuz are not of interest to anyone else... Typical.

Hey, were with you, dont tar us with the same brush, we are your special friend, and if there's a Navy Seal unit anywhere, you know a Cobra Task force is aware as our Elite SAS are up for it, normally we do the recon for your special forces....

[Valerie Williams + 129]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

Most of the American fellas on this site sound like they Laissez faire until it comes to their own jobs? 

Well, oil is a global market. You can’t have a free market while dealing with other markets that aren’t. But I wouldn’t be too hard on the American fellas. Online forums are a tricky conversation medium, and it’s hard to convey your full meaning. I doubt most people are really that shallow.

[RSD + 41]

8 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Wait. What?
Maybe I’m wrong, but all the reading I’ve done so far has led me to believe that in the Middle East, their break-even oil price is $10-15/bbl. Shale needs $25-30/bbl to break even, and I know personally that my company doesn’t start to get orders for work until the price is $55-60/bbl and looks to hold stable for a while.

Aramco's raw cost to produce is about $6/bbl, however to fund the Saudi government keeping the Saudi's in the lifestyle that they are accustomed to needs oil to be at $80/bbl - that $74/bbl is very important to the House of Saud and keeping the Saudi people happy so that coups don't happen...

[RSD + 41]

12 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

What’d I miss? 😜

Wombat forgot to take his meds...

[RSD + 41]

9 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Ok apart from the roads, what did the Romans really do for us???

Pizza!

[El Nikko + 2,145]

16 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Wait. What?
Maybe I’m wrong, but all the reading I’ve done so far has led me to believe that in the Middle East, their break-even oil price is $10-15/bbl. Shale needs $25-30/bbl to break even, and I know personally that my company doesn’t start to get orders for work until the price is $55-60/bbl and looks to hold stable for a while.

Saudi has huge social programs to pay for, around half of the country gets free money from the government and I don't think they even pay income tax so while it might be cheap to produce their oil they still need closer to $80 to balance the books.

[RSD + 41]

3 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Well, oil is a global market. You can’t have a free market while dealing with other markets that aren’t. But I wouldn’t be too hard on the American fellas. Online forums are a tricky conversation medium, and it’s hard to convey your full meaning. I doubt most people are really that shallow.

Yep - and you can't have a free market only when it suits to have a free market - and clearly having a free market isn't working out very well for the free market at the moment...

[Valerie Williams + 129]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

No worries, sometimes things get lost in translation. James Regan pointed out to me that what was "standard fare" here is sometimes "pie in the face" to a yank, so my apologies to Dougie.

You know, we “Yanks” used to have a better sense of humor. I don’t know, but the past several years, as an American, it seems we’re getting kicked in the teeth daily - and mostly by our OWN DANGED MEDIA! I’m afraid it’s made us more prickly these days, and I hate that for us. Sorry if we can’t take a joke, Wombat. Unless your joke was truly horrible. Was it horrible? Well, I missed it, so...

[Valerie Williams + 129]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Yes you maybe right the Wango Contango and bat eaters coupled with the camel jockeys and meddling bears alongside the pump and dumpers and that pesky virus has put us into untravelled waters, who know maybe the world is flat after all. Plus we managed this without Iran or Israel getting into a fight behind the bike shed, meanwhile Syria still in tatters apparently taking a halftime breather, Brexit looks like school kids gambling for fags (cigarettes to the heathens), Luxembourg suddenly seems to not exist, did it ever? 

Future looks bright 😎

Glad to see you didn’t leave anyone out. 😜

[Valerie Williams + 129]

4 hours ago, Wombat said:

Forget the British Empire, I am worried about what will replace the American Empire? Not even our bats are safe here in Australia? U can laugh, China will not invade USA or UK, but u can bet ur bottom dollar they will make a move down under in 5-10 years. You guys are well removed from what is going on in this region, let me tell you, all we hear is the drums of war. They get louder each year.

I don’t know about being removed. China has been worrying me for more than a decade. They seem to hate us, no amount of being nice and trying to do business with them seems to help. They appear to have infiltrated our largest businesses, universities and media, and are pushing their communist agenda at us through those proxies.
 

think they won’t invade us? They already have.