Trumps Oil Industry....

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

42 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 1900 most scoffed at the idea that a newfangled horseless carriage would replace the horse.Automobiles were very rudimentary, expensive and had a lot of shortcomings. 

Fifth Ave New York 1900, how many horseless carriages do you see? 

 

 

New York Fifth Avenue 1913, how many horses do you see?

 

 

This is a better analogy than is at first obvious. The biggest reason for shifting away from horses was pollution. There were other incentives, but by far the biggest problem with horses in the city was horse manure, followed by horse urine.

https://99percentinvisible.org/article/cities-paved-dung-urban-design-great-horse-manure-crisis-1894/

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

This is a better analogy than is at first obvious. The biggest reason for shifting away from horses was pollution. There were other incentives, but by far the biggest problem with horses in the city was horse manure, followed by horse urine.

https://99percentinvisible.org/article/cities-paved-dung-urban-design-great-horse-manure-crisis-1894/

 

Yes, and pollution is the same primary driver this time in transitioning to EV. As soon as there was a viable alternative to the horse, cities were very fast to regulate them off the street. The bans on ICE vehicles are coming out now because there is a viable alternative.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 1900 most scoffed at the idea that a newfangled horseless carriage would replace the horse.Automobiles were very rudimentary, expensive and had a lot of shortcomings. 

Fifth Ave New York 1900, how many horseless carriages do you see? 

 

New York Fifth Avenue 1913, how many horses do you see?

 

But the horseless carriage actually worked as advertised!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

But the horseless carriage actually worked as advertised!

In what way do EV's not work as advertised?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

57 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In what way do EV's not work as advertised?

No charging infrastructure

No battery life

Limited service facilities

Issues with batteries igniting

etc...

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

No charging infrastructure

No battery life

Limited service facilities

Issues with batteries igniting

etc...

In 1900 there were no gas stations. Fuel was purchased at the drug store, seldom did they have more than a gallon in stock. If you have a driveway it is easy to charge your car full every night with 220V outlet and a cord. As demand grows apartment and employer parking garages will be wired with 220V creating a new revenue stream for the garage owner. 

By battery life I guess you mean range. 250 miles is the current standard and increasing every year. Most people don't drive more than 100 miles a day.

There were no service centers in 1900 for an ICE vehicle. Today any EV except Tesla can be serviced at the dealership. Other options will develop over time.

ICE cars catch on fire all the time! I've had two ICE car fires in my life. "Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss.1 These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation." https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

The purchase price of EV is also dropping fast and in less than 5 years will be less than a comparable ICE vehicle at all price points. A Tesla Model 3 is already the same price as a comparable BMW 3 Series.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 1900 there were no gas stations. Fuel was purchased at the drug store, seldom did they have more than a gallon in stock. If you have a driveway it is easy to charge your car full every night with 220V outlet and a cord. As demand grows apartment and employer parking garages will be wired with 220V creating a new revenue stream for the garage owner. 

By battery life I guess you mean range. 250 miles is the current standard and increasing every year. Most people don't drive more than 100 miles a day.

There were no service centers in 1900 for an ICE vehicle. Today any EV except Tesla can be serviced at the dealership. Other options will develop over time.

ICE cars catch on fire all the time! I've had two ICE car fires in my life. "Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss.1 These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation." https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

The purchase price of EV is also dropping fast and in less than 5 years will be less than a comparable ICE vehicle at all price points. A Tesla Model 3 is already the same price as a comparable BMW 3 Series.

If you are enamored with EV’s, buy as many of the damn things as you like! Quit trying to shove them down everyone’s throat.

For me, and many like me, they would be a pain in the ass! We do not have garages with 220 power, we live in apartments, and believe it or not, many places not in the ‘west’ have essentially zero infrastructure and absolutely nowhere to get these pieces of junk serviced!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

If it were 1900 you would be defending your horse and I'd simply be describing an inescapable future driven by technology and economics.

I think you would like this article: https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/01/get-horse-americas-skepticism-toward-first-automobiles/

In 1930, Alexander Winton, by then one of the legends of the auto industry, wrote this article for the Post about the wild early days when even promoting the idea of a self-propelling machine would make you the object of ridicule.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

14 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If you are enamored with EV’s, buy as many of the damn things as you like! Quit trying to shove them down everyone’s throat.

For me, and many like me, they would be a pain in the ass! We do not have garages with 220 power, we live in apartments, and believe it or not, many places not in the ‘west’ have essentially zero infrastructure and absolutely nowhere to get these pieces of junk serviced!

Home charging in a condo environment presents a challenge.

The "nowhere to get the junk serviced" comment is plain wrong.  Even ICE cars are full of electronics and computers and hybrid cars have been on the market for many years already.  Your local Toyota dealership has been servicing Prius's for decades (1997+); getting rid of the gas side should make servicing easier.  

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSpOjj4YD8c

[James Regan + 1,776]

14 hours ago, Dg56 said:

Hi James,

The guys in your cartoon are certainly not "bald". Maybe they have been in lockdown for far too long, no hair cut...

Like Doug? His hair is growing back during lockdown? ☺

Bold - Brave lol spellcheck is a killer, I let your "Trobe" one slide, I tend not to be picky that way, I knew what you meant. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If you are enamored with EV’s, buy as many of the damn things as you like! Quit trying to shove them down everyone’s throat.

For me, and many like me, they would be a pain in the ass! We do not have garages with 220 power, we live in apartments, and believe it or not, many places not in the ‘west’ have essentially zero infrastructure and absolutely nowhere to get these pieces of junk serviced!

If you are enamored with EV’s, buy as many of the damn things as you like! Quit trying to shove them down everyone’s throat. In here lies the problem EVs and TreeHugging go hand in hand so its a religion to the anointed. The ICE is going nowhere its more than a mode of transport its a lifestyle which has been evolving with much passion, most gas monkeys will have a notion whats wrong with their car if it fails granted its getting harder now as we slowly evolve to the EV dream, management systems that put your car in rescue mode due to a fuel filter passing due by date when you 200 miles from home etc etc. The EV is going to be a huge money spinner EVs go hand in hand with climate control companies, forget social movement its naive to thinks its not, whats driving it?

The EV will rely heavily on fossil fuels to build and develop. I agree EVs will be fantastic if limited to city travel by default they will be, road trip across the USA in a EV will be a rare event and not much fun. 

EVs will have their time but its not now, we are in development mode not close to transition, let the local governments transfer ALL their gas guzzling modes of transport to EVs and not work on the general public to work through the issues while paying handsomely for it, and my favourite would you fly in an EV jetliner?

FACT- Electric Motorcycles are 1/6th LESS efficient than the same weight ratio, from the equivalent of 50cc right up to 1100CC- Unless a serious battery is invented EVs will be just a flirtatious green dream, it will not replace the love affair with the ICE.

Edited April 27, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

Im just flirting with disaster (name that band) - What happened to this fellah, he would have been fun during this thread. He just disappeared as quick as he appeared, PUUF up in smoke......

Edited April 27, 2020 by James Regan

[notsonice + 1,077]

 

Trump loves his EV so much he put his name on one. MAGA with your EV?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, notsonice said:

 

Trump loves his EV so much he put his name on one. MAGA with your EV?

It was the only way he could get Bernie in the damn car!

[epchkm + 6]

Problem with Trump is his big ego and that prevents him from being effective for the oil industry.  When the prices of oil dropped in late March when Saudi and Russia had the tiff, he cheered the low prices and then reversed himself after cries and complaints from the oil industry.  In reality, for his reelection he can take the oil and gas industry for granted.   LA, OK and ND are going to vote Trump regardless of what happens, TX and Alaska may be slightly dicier, but unless this collapse we are in is still in 15 range (WTI) in late fall, he is unlikely to lose TX or Alaska.  

Under Obama, oil industry actually prospered which no one in the forum is acknowledging.  Obama opened up crude oil for exports and starting the licensing program for LNG exports too.  It is not always "drill baby drill", a measured approach to opening up the oil/gas industry with sound regulations in place (as it was under Obama) is better for the oil industry in the long run.  

[surrept33 + 609]

6 hours ago, James Regan said:

The EV will rely heavily on fossil fuels to build and develop.

This is a very good point.

I think the biggest knock on EVs is that a full battery EV in many situations actually may cause more net emissions than a ICE, and certainly more than a hybrid (which may a good sweet spot for a long time). This is what happens when you have a vehicle with such a large amount of batteries that are so energy intensive to produce.

But we're very early in the opportunity to optimize BEV both in car and across all aspects of the supply chain including primary power generation. Meanwhile, we're probably near the zenith of ICE.

I think the ship has already sailed in EVs and ICE if you look investment decisions; it's a matter of when, not if, and if there will be alternatives like fuel cell cars.

From Volkswagen:

 

[Hotone + 412]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:28 PM, Wombat said:

A little tid-bit from Reuters on Chinese intent. Imports from USA zero, imports from Iran and Russia up! I don't know why ur energy secretary in US thinks this will change? Very naive if you ask me.

China is buying up US LNG.  To meet their commitment for Phase 1 deal, China will have to switch to US and drop purchases from current suppliers.  This is easier for LNG than crude.  I think crude will follow soon, when WTI price falls further.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/china-lends-us-gas-producers-a-big-helping-hand/

Edited April 27, 2020 by Hotone

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 hours ago, James Regan said:

If you are enamored with EV’s, buy as many of the damn things as you like! Quit trying to shove them down everyone’s throat. In here lies the problem EVs and TreeHugging go hand in hand so its a religion to the anointed. The ICE is going nowhere its more than a mode of transport its a lifestyle which has been evolving with much passion, most gas monkeys will have a notion whats wrong with their car if it fails granted its getting harder now as we slowly evolve to the EV dream, management systems that put your car in rescue mode due to a fuel filter passing due by date when you 200 miles from home etc etc. The EV is going to be a huge money spinner EVs go hand in hand with climate control companies, forget social movement its naive to thinks its not, whats driving it?

The EV will rely heavily on fossil fuels to build and develop. I agree EVs will be fantastic if limited to city travel by default they will be, road trip across the USA in a EV will be a rare event and not much fun. 

EVs will have their time but its not now, we are in development mode not close to transition, let the local governments transfer ALL their gas guzzling modes of transport to EVs and not work on the general public to work through the issues while paying handsomely for it, and my favourite would you fly in an EV jetliner?

FACT- Electric Motorcycles are 1/6th LESS efficient than the same weight ratio, from the equivalent of 50cc right up to 1100CC- Unless a serious battery is invented EVs will be just a flirtatious green dream, it will not replace the love affair with the ICE.

So ICE is also a religion by your description. But as you point out, working on new ICE cars is becoming ever more difficult for gas monkeys and will actually be more difficult than working on an EV because in an EV you don't worry about fuel filters or any number of other moving parts.

What's driving it? The market, supply and demand.

Driving cross country in an ICE automobile is a rare event. EV range and charging infrastructure will continue to expand and make it ever easier. 

Air travel isn't solved yet but it also only uses one fifth as much oil as automobiles. It isn't high priority yet.

Motorcycles don't use much gas and demand in the US appears to be in secular decline. However electric motorcycle share appears to be increasing rapidly. https://electrek.co/2020/02/26/energicas-sales-are-booming-electric-motorcycles/

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/25/2020 at 11:45 PM, Dan Warnick said:

What?  It's just a simple misspelling.   

Carbondale has its own Urban Dictionary entry, but don't believe everything you read.  They left out the part about Belushi being a GOD! (Toga! Toga! Toga!) with food fights in the canteens each year on his birthday and a somber moment of reflection before shots during Happy Hour on the anniversary of his death (March 5, 1982.  R.I.P. John). 

Halloween festivities on the strip are said to have more one-day Romans than any other place on Earth, or that might just be something a couple of guys said, nobody cares!  LOL!  Halloween became known for a few small parties in the 80s (the police called them RIOTS, but what do they know.  If you look closely, you might see I had different hair back then [photo taken during a moment of civil disobedience, at least that's what they said]).

Back to present day, and isn't it interesting that I'd find myself on Oil Price, having a brief few comments (and fantastic memories) about my alma mater, that's in a town called Carbondale (so named for the coal deposits in the area), of all things?  Fantastic!

Cheers everybody!  Enjoy your lockdown (Jesus, what have we come to?)

Yeah, even without lockdown, you certainly CANNOT have an Animal House nowadays.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/26/2020 at 5:17 AM, James Regan said:

Apparently Amish parties for teenagers are meant to be very hedonistic, is there truth in this legend, I did see a program on discovery and it was beyond hedonism, it was down right scary, not saying I wouldn't have given it a bash in my day, but a far cry from Luther and his cart and horse.....

Actually, yeah. They get (I think it's a year?) to run wild. This is apparently so they'll know what they're missing or choosing to leave behind when/if they go back. They have a reputation for trying to pack all kinds of life experiences into a very short time.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

16 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Actually, yeah. They get (I think it's a year?) to run wild. This is apparently so they'll know what they're missing or choosing to leave behind when/if they go back. They have a reputation for trying to pack all kinds of life experiences into a very short time.

I saw a movie about that.  It didn't present very well.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:03 AM, D Coyne said:

Valerie,

Nothing humans do has zero impact, that is pretty self evident.

I am assuming you have heard of climate change, you understand basic physics obviously as an ME, a comparison of the environmental impacts of wind and solar vs fossil fuel is a no brainer, not even close. 

There are plenty of other options for storage besides batteries, hydrogen produced by excess wind and solar during peak periods is one option, the hydrogen can be used to produce electricity during low output periods for wind and solar, nuclear (small modular units being developed) is another potential backup option.

Solar panels are made primarily from silicon (about 28% of Earth's crust, so fairly abundant and no doubt recyclable.)

Also power output from solar has been growing at about a 30% rate for past 5 years and for wind the rate has been about 15% annual output growth for the past 5 years.  Future rates are of course unknown, but considering that the fossil fuels used for transport and electricity production probably have average thermal losses of 65% or so (coal, oil and gas) only about 40% of that energy needs to be replaced by wind and solar power.  It will take some time obviously, but as fossil fuel resources start to reach maximum output levels over the 2025 (oil and coal) to 2035 (natural gas) period, prices will rise and the transition to alternatives to fossil fuel will accelerate as they will be relatively cheaper.

Some of this covered in a book I coauthored (maybe at a local university library) at link below

https://www.amazon.com/Mathematical-Geoenergy-Discovery-Depletion-Geophysical/dp/1119434297

Yes. I've heard of climate change. Also, I'm not an ME. Don't want to inflate my credentials - mechanical designer - different category of work.

Yes, my big gripe about "renewables" and "clean energy" is that batteries appear to be the go-to solution for those who are actually putting money to product in that market. And, I think the battery situation is very toxic. I want a different solution than that, and I'm waiting for it to get worked out. Some of the stuff you all have mentioned sounds great, actually, and I can't wait to see it become more prevalent.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:10 AM, D Coyne said:

price of electricity which changes hour by hour based on supply and demand

God, that would suck. Reminds me of when cell phones used to charge by the minute. Extremely stressful way to use a service.

[0R0 + 6,251]

20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 1900 most scoffed at the idea that a newfangled horseless carriage would replace the horse.Automobiles were very rudimentary, expensive and had a lot of shortcomings. 

Fifth Ave New York 1900, how many horseless carriages do you see? 

 

New York Fifth Avenue 1913, how many horses do you see?

to

That is also showing the vertical rise of NYC as the mansions that used to line 5th avenue gave way to high rise apartment buildings and large department stores competing to wow the wealthy and out of towners. 

Obviously, EVs do have the potential and are more reliable and thus less costly to operate. Having far fewer moving parts does that for you. However, cars did not have exotic materials necessary in significant quantities to make them work. No Neodymium magnets, no cobalt and no rare metals to line the crucibles to make lithium to run the batteries. We were not at risk of running out of production capacity of the component materials nor had a monopoly on mining the stuff in another country. 

There is allot of mine development work to do to bring us to the same order of magnitude of production as the ICE car.