No trucks flowing into NYC, no diesel being consumed. TAKE A GOOD LOOK, FELLAS.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

16 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Now that's a picture!

I have absolutely no idea where that comes from. It was part of a poem guys used to quote on a drill floor somewhere in my past.

Why it sticks in my mind is troubling...

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Why it sticks in my mind is troubling...

Cheer up, Doug, maybe you just like old Model T's and derby hats!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

Cheer up, Doug, maybe you just like old Model T's and derby hats!

Actually....I do!😂

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Jan van Eck said:

Cheer up, Doug, maybe you just like old Model T's and derby hats!

He's got a nice derby hat on in his photo.  Oh....er....uh....had another look and, well....nice photo, Douglas!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Would need to ‘upgrade’ the T-model a bit...

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Would need to ‘upgrade’ the T-model a bit...

Is this you with the family in '38?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

He's got a nice derby hat on in his photo.  Oh....er....uh....had another look and, well....nice photo, Douglas!

Jealousy will get you nowhere!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Is this you with the family in '38?

Actually ‘39, after I was finished with the .38.😂

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Jealousy will get you nowhere!

Touche'.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

10 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Touche'.

😂

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

33 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

😂

I think we've succeeded in putting a bit of levity into an otherwise sobering thread, don't you?  And who wants to be sober after reading it anyway?!?!

[Wombat + 1,028]

4 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Unfortunately, that "new normal" has the earmarks of being rather unpleasant. 

You may anticipate that the income and wealth distributions will be even more skewed than they are today, with what is effectively a new landowner class, and a new serf class, arising, a remake of the old feudalism structure of medieval Europe.  I also anticipate that the serf or peasant class will become violent and do murders of the landed class, as you had with (for example) Braveheart.   Or in the streets of medieval Italy, where men with knives would attack the rich; they became known as the assassins. 

To see how this develops, you might want to review the (very recent) developments in South Africa.   Street assassins abound.  the gentry live behind walls, razor wire, and gun ports, and travel in armored limos and carry guns.  the idea of taking your dog out for a pleasant walk - well, nobody does that any more.  You would get murdered. 

America's rich think they can live in these gated communities and be safe.  I have news for them: won't work. 

I have news 4u, the police and the army will be paid no matter what, and if anyone gets violent, u will get Martial Law quicker than u can say "Bob's ur uncle". 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I have news 4u, the police and the army will be paid no matter what, and if anyone gets violent, u will get Martial Law quicker than u can say "Bob's ur uncle". 

This virus has succeeded far more than any martial law could have hoped to have.  Americans react better to an unknown possibly lethal bug; but known possibly lethal bugs may not get quite the same level of discipline.  Just sayin......

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

martial law

There is no "martial law" in US law.  See:  Posse Comitatus Act. The army stays in its barracks. 

Getting past that, and since it is Easter Sunday, I would prefer to dwell on more pleasant thoughts.  I have the Sunday Service running on a parallel channel, so I shall devote myself to meditation.  I also invite folks to tune in to Service from Milan, Italy, at 1.00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Andrea Bocelli's Easter Concert:

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/life/entertainment/a32085366/how-to-watch-stream-andrea-bocelli-music-for-hope-concert/

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

This virus has succeeded far more than any martial law could have hoped to have.  Americans react better to an unknown possibly lethal bug; but known possibly lethal bugs may not get quite the same level of discipline.  Just sayin......

All I know is that I here a lot of ppl crappin on about infrastructure, or how there gonna be violence but I havent heard much about real solutions to the crisis. In the UK, the govt payin 80% of a persons wage, here in Australia, it is up to $750/week and the RBA giving $90bn to banks so they can give temporary mortgage relief. Haven't heard any talk of Congress doing anything like that? All ppl need is a roof over their head and food so why is it all so f******* hard? Back in WW2, we did food drops in Berlin. Why can't the govt give money to the National Guard to buy & distribute food? Why can't everyone be eligible for unemployment benefits like they are in civilized countries? Why is there no temporary bans on evictions? No relief on electricity bills? Everybody else doing these things.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I think young Tucker raises a fair number of valid points.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Why are you so damned concerned about what is happening in the States? Have up got everything sorted out in Oz?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@Wombat
 

“Back in WW2, we did food drops in Berlin.“

The Berlin Airlift was AFTER the Second World War ended.

Does ‘we’ imply the Australians? Sorry mate, it was an American operation.

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/www.history.com/.amp/this-day-in-history/berlin-airlift-begins

Edited April 12, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Typo

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Wombat said:

All I know is that I here a lot of ppl crappin on about infrastructure, or how there gonna be violence but I havent heard much about real solutions to the crisis. In the UK, the govt payin 80% of a persons wage, here in Australia, it is up to $750/week and the RBA giving $90bn to banks so they can give temporary mortgage relief. Haven't heard any talk of Congress doing anything like that? All ppl need is a roof over their head and food so why is it all so f******* hard? Back in WW2, we did food drops in Berlin. Why can't the govt give money to the National Guard to buy & distribute food? Why can't everyone be eligible for unemployment benefits like they are in civilized countries? Why is there no temporary bans on evictions? No relief on electricity bills? Everybody else doing these things.

In the US, the stimulus package is $2.2 trillion, that doesn't count the 4 trillion banks and hedge funds got. PPP and EIDL funds are being distributed now. Mortgage relief and student loan relief is already happening, as is a moratorium on evictions. Unemployment expanded including for the first time consultants. Bottom line everything except the National Guard distributing food already is happening here in the US. Will it be enough or do we need to get back to work? I say the latter

[Ex-Oilman + 1]

Typical NY’er! They always think the world revolves around them. Other states are moving, less but still moving.

Hey look up! The sky is falling. 
 

 

 

[specinho + 470]

On 4/11/2020 at 9:59 PM, Jan van Eck said:

 And if nothing is moving, where does that leave the oil industry, the supplier of all that gasoline and especially diesel that gets burned moving all that freight? 

You might want to consider having a chat with Mr. Kim Jung Unn, the Korean leader........ something he tested out two years ago could create artificial quake and afterquakes that potentially level not only some rocky mountains, soil or sand extraction sites, but also recommended at unwanted locations that needed to be rebuilt etc.............. There used to be an old saying "When there is nothing insight, ( create one ), if it is possible"

On 4/11/2020 at 10:25 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

I think this is a propitious time for the big infrastructure plan that has been floated by the president.

Edited April 12, 2020 by specinho

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Here is why that does not work, Ron:   If I get sick, I am dead, for me, that virus is a non-survivable infection.  And I anticipate that that would be true for lots and lots of others.  So, unless you are prepared to effectively condemn lots of your fellow residents here in the USA to death from some Chines imported viral matter, this is non-tenable.  (at my age, I am both too old and with too many lung issues to survive it). (Anyone with a history of breast cancer, now common enough for American women, is a likely candidate for death, not so pleasant). 

"Getting sick and getting over it" is not not a great idea.  If you were to take Vermont's current death rate of 5% of infections, and extrapolate that out across America with say a 60% infection rate, then you end up with nine million dead. 

Concededly, there are likely to be some millions dead in any event, once the "second wave" of infections hits.  But  if you can reduce that by say half, then you will have spared 4,500,000 residents from unpleasant death.  I think that is worth the effort. 

To suggest, "Well, those are old people, they would have died anyway," is to my mind rather callous. I am not prepared to go there. 

I think the USA is better off to discontinue its relationships with a people and culture that thinks it is OK to have these "wet markets" where their civilians go to "wet markets" to buy live bats and live pandolins and have them slaughtered right before you, with the blood and the infections spreading around all over the place, because they have this idea that eating meat from domesticated cattle is passe.   Forget about these Chinese,  Buy American. 

I disagree with your death rate. I still say about half of one percent of all the people who will eventually be exposed to the virus (everyone). So far I am right in predicting that all of the expert projections were wildly inflated!

 We will all be exposed eventually. I am 74 with cardiac and lung issues also. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

36 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

We will all be exposed eventually. I am 74 with cardiac and lung issues also. 

Ron, I am sorry to say that, if you end up infected, your survival is very much in doubt. 

As to the "death rate," in Vermont is has been at about 5% of those tested "positive," although that percentage is likely to drop as healthier people end up tested  (right now, only those with doctor's Order Slips are tested due to lack of kits). It may very well drop to below 1%, although I personally remain dubious.  Either way, for the older and with pre-existing conditions, it is more likely fatal.  We just had a quite healthy 74-yr-old State Representative from an outlier area in the countryside die.  I suspect he got infected in Burlington, the largest city and "ground zero" for this State.  I am scrupulously avoiding Burlington. 

I will continue in my assertion that disengagement from China and places that practice "wet market" killings of bush meat is the West's best practice.  That specifically includes countries in West Africa such as the two Congo nations - Republic of Congo, and Democratic Republic of Congo.  Until they change their social behavior, time to stay away.  Buy American. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Jan, I think you are right to take every precaution as I am trying, but I feel lucky. I am also fortunate to have my own acre to play on. I am putting up a chicken coop and a goldfish pond ( Dug in 100 gallon plastic water trough) which will be fancied up with a waterfall etc. Gardening etc. I have to order things in and can easily contact the virus via boxes etc. If it is my last year I want it to be a good one. I will wear PPE whenever I must go out. At least I am catching up on my exercise. God bless you and keep you safe my friend.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

11 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Jan, I think you are right to take every precaution as I am trying, but I feel lucky. I am also fortunate to have my own acre to play on. I am putting up a chicken coop and a goldfish pond ( Dug in 100 gallon plastic water trough) which will be fancied up with a waterfall etc. Gardening etc. I have to order things in and can easily contact the virus via boxes etc. If it is my last year I want it to be a good one. I will wear PPE whenever I must go out. At least I am catching up on my exercise. God bless you and keep you safe my friend.

Ron, keep in mind that it is all a question of "viral load."   Yes, this virus can survive on a cardboard-box surface, apparently for up to 3 days.  But, what would be the viral load on that surface?  I suspect it would be very light.  It likely is not enough to make you sick.  If you want to use universal precautions, then I suggest you use those blue latex nitrile gloves that auto mechanics use to fix cars and keep the grease out from underneath their fingernails, open up the cardboard shipping box, and then go burn that in the backyard, just dig a pit and do your burning in there.   You can also use straight alcohol, just wipe everything with it.  I had already laid in a small supply of straight alcohol from the local Dollar General, they seem to keep that stuff in supply, I think they label it as "91% isopropyl alcohol."   Since you are in the Midwest there has got to be lots and lots of the stuff available from those corn ethanol plants, if those guys could get their act together with some bottle blow-molder they could be cranking out the pint bottles of alcohol by the millions.  Anyway, use the nitrile latex gloves, and then just dip the fingertips into a plastic cottage-cheese container with some alcohol in the bottom, wash the tips off by putting them under a running faucet in the sink, and you can peel them off for re-use indefinitely.  I put these on whenever I have to go into town, it is skin contact more than breathing that will determine the infection path  (outside of coughing). 

Keep in mind that the person standing next to you can be infected but not infectious.  His simple breathing is likely not to be infectious; that virus matter would have to be aerosolized, which the virus makes you do by coughing.  Put on a bandanna when you go to the ATM!  Makes you look like a stick-up artist, but touch the keys only with the latex gloves, then wash the tips with alcohol.  Anyway, downstate Illinois strikes me as a low-risk area, probably no virus within 30 miles of your place.   Enjoy the goldfish!  

Now, back on topic:  the demand destruction for gasoline and diesel represents the tip of the spear for the destruction of capital, and that part is really scary.  A staggering amount of free capital, otherwise would be used for investment, is getting ground up.  that has profound implications, and while Steve Mnuchin (USA Sec. of the Treasury) thinks he can beat that back with the printing of trillions, he risks turning the country into Argentina.  Asset deflation will wreck the investment stream, and private capital investments are going to get demolished.   Trump is right to set out that this is the time to spend bucks  (that he does not have) for bridges and tunnels.  Mnuchin is a scoundrel, thief and general scalawag, who with his buddies in his hedge fund have stolen enough to hand him $300 million of other peoples' money, mostly out of the Far West Federal Bank scandal.  He gets hired by Trump anyway.  Watch out for this guy, he is amoral.  I would refuse to shake hands with this pig.  

Can you have asset deflation and also price inflation, a debasement of the currency?  Yes, you likely can.  that would be disastrous.  The real problem is that this calamity, which I remind you is brought to you compliments of those lovely Chinese Communists that the Clintonistas are so enamored of,  is going to give the USA and the West generally a huge hit, and risks turning the USA into another Portugal.   Handling this will require the brightest minds out there, and recruiting those guys is going to be the challenge.  I shudder where this is going.