Crazy Conspiracy Theory about origins of COVID-19

[Marcin2 + 725]

Effect of too long quarantine: Conspiracy Theory about origins of COVID-19

1.

Strategic goal of China: Become hegemonic country. To do it, China needs to become 100% self-sufficient in any crucial technologies and products. In short-term become at least 100% independent from any American technology or product.

Strategic goal of US: Retain position of hegemonic country. To defend this position US has to make use of major Chinese weakness: technological dependence on foreign technology. US goal is to prevent by any means China from becoming technologically on par with US. Hegemonic country naturally impacts global governance tendencies, so Chinese hegemony would probably lead to global decrease of civil liberties and democracy and towards dictatorships and state control over societies.

 2.

Turning point in 2018-2019 were global unilateral sanctions on ZTE and later Huawei and nearly all other top Chinese tech companies. To lesser extent also trade conflict. US tries to implement strategy “You join our containment of China or are against us”.

China has developed foreign affairs counter strategy of trying to co-operate with US companies and all other countries to blunt the spear of US sanctions. At the same time China has doubled down on achieving self-sufficiency.

The major problem of Chinese strategy is that China needs TIME to close technology gaps.

In the past, major events gave China windows of opportunity in its development:

1. 9/11 event and US War on Terror has deviated US resources out of China containment and allowed admission of China to WTO.
2. Global financial crisis of 2007-2009 significantly weakened US and focused its resources on domestic policies to fight it.

After May 2018 it became evident that without opening next opportunity window it would be more difficult, costly and take much longer to achieve Chinese technology parity.

Alternative costs in lost Chinese GDP of at least 2 trillion US dollars a year (due to lower GDP growth) times at least 10 years gave total alternative cost of at least 20 trillion US dollars.

3.

Strategic analysis and search for next major event opening window of opportunity started in top secret small military intelligence task force. Organizational location of this task force was mainly due to single direct personal link of Xi Jinping as Chairman of Central Military Commission to top Chinese military commander and in turn also to director of Chinese military intelligence. No Standing Committee or other Politburo members were involved to keep absolute secrecy.

Wish list of features of major event:

-         ensure total plausible denial of Chinese involvement in event origin,

-         long, severe adverse effects on US economy to tie up US forces and decrease US strategic versatility,

-         influencing political choices of Americans in a way beneficial for China,

-         best tactical effect would be adverse impact on US fiscal and employment indicators as they take many years to later improve and are politically most efficient in influencing US public into focusing on domestic policies,

-         making use of major US weaknesses (which are in long term its strengths) that is bi-party system, election cycles, federalist organization of state, US civil liberties and even Trump instant gratification personality etc.

-         as small as possible adverse effects on Chinese economy, but most of all on R&D output and high-tech procurement,

-         making use of major strengths of Chinese state,

-         event should be as non violent as possible to ensure that it would not lead to chain reaction effect of unintended consequences.

It was obvious that some kind of true act of God seemed to allow the most plausible denial. The problem is that humans are not good in creating this kind of events.

Medical emergency was the only possible choice but it is event that is difficult to control could become double edged sword.

4.

In late 2018 information about Wuhan first Level 4 laboratory and works on bat viruses conducted there gave some idea to the TEAM. Promptly, during routine control ordained in the facility by military intelligence chief due to risk of security breach, one of TEAM members with medical background was briefed about the state of research and procedural details. A few bat viruses similar to 2002 SARS virus looked promising in development of anti-SARS vaccine.

In early 2019 TEAM was granted permission to check in more detail viability of this event.

TEAM started to operationalize the event. 100 inmates were chosen and transferred to one of black ops facilities. Samples of a few viruses were snatched by TEAM. Each virus was tested on a small group of inmates. One strain looked especially promising so was chosen for further testing. Long incubation period, medium infectiousness, asymptotic cases and relatively low death rate seemed best for the purpose of EVENT. All tested inmates and cooperating medical personnel were disappeared.

After Huawei was sanctioned in May 2019 the need of event increased in urgency.

5.

The TIMING in US was set for election year.

EVENT had to start in China as the appropriate number of carriers were needed to spread it globally. In case virus proved to behave in more ominous way it was also possible to stop operation early by decisive action of Central Government when number of infected was below 1,000.

The exact timing and LOCATION in China was chosen for late Fall in Wuhan. Wuhan due to World Military Games (to blame Americans) and Level 4 laboratory. Probability that the strain was accidentally released by one of the scientists ensured full co-operation from Lab staff and was a good reason to immediately destroy all animal virus samples, live specimens. Late Fall was chosen because it was flu season and near strategic TIMING.

TEAM member infected a few locations in Wuhan in late November 2019 including some workers at Wuhan Wet Market. Disease was spreading relatively slow but in late December 2019 its results were visible. Nevertheless the decisions about containment were delayed till late January to allow global contagion.

Foreign specialists were not allowed to epidemic epicenter cause they might have observed some irregularities in first cases or get access to Wuhan Lab documentation & people.

As predicted Hubei and later much broader lockdown enabled fast decrease in new cases and relatively fast containment of COVID-19 in China in mid March 2020.

In February and March 2020, people traveling from China spread the virus globally.

All East Asian countries trained by SARS, reacted in a very efficient, swift way and prevented countrywide epidemics so crucial Chinese high-tech supply chains are in relatively good shape. This proved another upside of this EVENT.

6.

Chaotic reactions in Europe and US caused a lot of economic damage and very long lockdowns. EU and US arised from epidemic economically weakened. It was much more difficult to restrict civil liberties & stall economy in democracies without the political consensus and this WASTED precious TIME and made epidemic response delayed.

Specifically: CBO predicts that United States will have 12% unemployment in Q2 2020, and only slight recovery till 9% at the end of 2021. Short-sighted harmful actions by both US Congress and FED would leave US with burdens of: much higher government debt and deep fiscal deficit. But most of all United States would not be able to return to sound monetary policies of positive real interest rates in at least  next 20 years until debt is inflated out. This will further aggravate problems with lack of savings & investment, low domestic consumption and rising inequalities.

These effects will decrease resources and thus versatility of strategic choice of United States in foreign policy and would cause more focus on domestic situation.

Chinese window of opportunity has been opened for at least 5 years, they do not need much more.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Marcin2
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