just heard a stat: U.S. GASOLINE CONSUMPTION DOWN 60% !

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron said:

You need a strong testing and tracing program in place before you can open up areas in which the virus is endemic.

Tracing is a useless concept in a virus that remains contagious for weeks on public surfaces. It is distinctly the one way not to go. 

Testing is useful. But the focus should be on early treatment, not anything else. 

[UNC12345 + 171]

Let's not get crazy (again) with the communist references to Ontario.  I live here and am very happy with the experience, quite proud of it actually.  Just because we have higher taxes does not mean it's communism.  Sorry about your experience Jan and Rob, but lots of us think this is a great place to live.  And I am no fan of the current Federal government, being an oil patch investor for quite a while now.

Like other themes and discussions on here, it just seems that every concept needs to be taken to the extreme.  Sorry if you've been misled, but we are in the middle somewhere and that does not make us communist.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

9 hours ago, wrs said:

I have come to the conclusion that this is intended to destroy oil and the petrodollar so that he world can move on with Greta in charge.

In the meantime I will be out driving my 8mpg 800hp car and burning up as much cheap 93 octane as possible.

Good man! Doing your part to dry up the glut...

[ronwagn + 6,290]

22 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The jet fuel market I think looks more like Rystad's forecast than the others

Rystad expected jet fuel demand to fall at least 1.9 million bpd in 2020, and JBC Energy consultancy estimated jet fuel demand over the next few months to fall to below 2 million bpd and to 5.2 million bpd on average in 2020.

I don't believe that this is going to continue this way. Remdesivir is already looking broadly useful in reversing disease in advanced cases, while HCQ/Z is good at the early symptomatic stage and as a prophylactic. There is no reason to have a substantial restriction on activity once the number of active cases outside of hospitals reduces substantially. 

The disease is already over, and has been for two weaks. It has peaked. Solutions are in place. They just need to scale in production. In the interim we just need to avoid creating major outbreaks. There is absolutely not reason to attempt to stamp out the virus..  That means that downtown areas must keep passengers off the Subway and buses without PPE.

We are waiting for the rest of the untested infected folks to be non-contagious. For the bulk of the country outside the dense cities this is already possible next week. The Metro from Philly to Boston will take up to 3 weeks. 

Sardine like travel is off the agenda. People will drive. Urbanites will Uber not subway. Gasoline consumption will explode. 

The supply chain migration out of China is worth at leas 3 mob/d for heavy capital investment and an enormous training period for the former hospitality industry labor to work the machines. 

China's example is that people are no longer willing to use public transport to commute. Which means that NYC and other similar (though much less dense) employment centers, must migrate out into the open spaces and home offices. This will go far beyond compensating for jet fuel demand losses. US oil consumption will be UP well before the end of the year. Jet travel will be for urgent circumstances, otherwise, we drive. Public transport will be empty. Where the city is just to dense, the office will permanently move out of the city. We have proven it just plain doesn't need to be there. The downtown high rent office is defunct. The high priced apartments people needed to be in proximity to that office are no longer necessary. 

 

One of my top priorities would be breaking up Washington D.C. into several cities scattered around the country in cheap rent areas. Let D.C be for Congress, The Supreme Court, and the White House but have satellites are also useable for them in case of problems.