Middle East: How is the UAE Changing Its Geo-Political Game?

[El Nikko + 2,145]

For anone interested in the geopolitical changes North Africa and the Middle East.

------------------------

Whereas the leaders of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, popularly known as MBS and MBZ respectively, have a number of reasons to stay united and support each other, inter-state relations are never static, with critical differences between them emerging at every turn even when state interests converge deeply. When the UAE decided in 2019 to withdraw its troops from Yemen, it was percieved as an act of ‘abandoning’ of Saudi Arabia. However, whereas differences did not, at the time, turn out to be too big to bridge, there remains little doubt that the UAE, already an important regional player, is changing its geo-political game in the wake of increasingly weakening Saudi position in the Middle East. The tiny Arab state is, as a part of its new game-plan, redefining and changing its relations, properly utilising the COVID-19 context, with both the US and Iran.

This change of game-plan is supposed to work at two levels: globally, the UAE aims to replace the Saudis as the US’ biggest regional ally and thus become a front-runner; regionally, by redefining its relations with Iran, it hopes to emerge as a new leader. By doing so, the UAE further aims to not only challenge Turkish regional ambitions, but also position itself as a major interlocutor between the US and Iran in the future.

This was clearly observed when, as opposed to Saudi Arabia, the UAE officials did support easing of sanctions on Iran to help it fight the pandemic. The support directly translated into medical shipments sent to Tehran. Again, as opposed to Saudia accusing Iran for the spread of COVID-19 in the Middle East, the UAE joined hands, out of its bid to change its image in the region, with the WHO to send medical aid. The Emirati air-force deployed an aircraft that carried 7.5 tonnes of cargo from Dubai to Iran.

The Saudis, on the other hand, took a series of action that showed them hardening the usual “battle lines” against Iran. Contrasting policies of the UAE and Saudia tend to highlight the differences. As early as March 6, the Saudi official said that Iran’s “irresponsible actions….are a proof of Iran’s direct responsibility in increasing COVID-19 infections and in the virus’s outbreak all around the world…”

At the same time, the Saudis have been trying to make sure that no international pressure builds on the US regarding easing sanctions on Iran. In this regard, the Kingdom, along with some other countries, blocked the Non-Aligned Movement’s statement that called for lifting US sanctions on Iran to enable it to better cope with the pandemic.

The UAE, however, did not become a party to this, thus maintaining its own course vis-à-vis Iran that it had adopted initially by withdrawing its forces from Yemen, deployed against the Iranian supported Houthis.

Similarly, when the US and Iran came eye-ball to eye-ball in the recent military stand-off after General Soleimani’s killing, the UAE was the first from the ‘Saudi camp’ to reach out to Iran to make sure that it remains safe from attacks. The Trump administration also remained silent when the UAE last October released US$700 million in frozen Iranian assets that ran counter to US and Saudi efforts to strangle Iran economically with harsh sanctions.

Apart from the Iran question, the Saudi-UAE ‘tensions’, even after UAE withdrawal from Yemen, still continue to recur in Yemen. In Yemen, the Saudi supported government and the UAE supported Southern Transitional Council remain constantly at logger heads. In March, tensions escalated when the Saudis deliberately blocked Southern Transitional Council officials from returning to Aden for political negotiations, showing how both blocks were far from playing for each other as allies, and that they were more of involved in a power struggle to give their supported factions an upper hand in any future political set up.

Already, political differences between the Yemeni government and the Council have translated into military conflict with Saudia deciding to expand its deployment of elite forces to guard the city of Aden against any hostilities instigated by the [UAE backed] Southern Council.

In Syria, the UAE has been playing its game against Turkey. On the one hand, as some media reports indicated, the UAE has been actively trying to sabotage US support for Turkey’s interventions in Syria, and on the other, it has even offered billions to Syria’s Assad to break the ceasefire in Idlib and attack Turkish forces, although MBZ called this money ‘aid’ for the fight against COVID-19.

Whereas the UAE’s intention as to engage the Turkish forces in a costly war, larger regional ambitions were also at work there. It was UAE’s response to Turkey’s increasing involvement in Libya. The year-long offensive on Tripoli mounted by Haftar’s UAE-backed Libyan National Army has been stalled by Ankara’s deployment of drones, Turkish troops and its proxy ‘warriors’ from Syria.

The UAE is thus actively engaged in at least three different scenarios and is pursuing policies that seemingly run counter to the interests of its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

The underlying shift in policies is as much a part of the growing differences between the two Gulf countries as a glimpse of growing power struggle within the Arab countries about regional leadership roles. The Saudis are seemingly undergoing a ‘hegemonic fatigue’ and the Emirati leaders, sensing the Saudi state of affairs and the decline, are gearing up to switch the roles; hence, the easing of tense relations with Iran and increasingly assertive geo-political indirect interventions in Yemen (against Saudia) and in Syria (against the Turks).

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

https://journal-neo.org/2020/04/16/middle-east-how-is-the-uae-changing-its-geo-political-game/

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Interesting!

I am curious as to how Kurdistan will be positioned after all of this shakes out.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

23 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Interesting!

I am curious as to how Kurdistan will be positioned after all of this shakes out.

Yes me too, they don't seem to have many backers other than the US (and a smattering of NATO forces like the UK) but have two autonomous zones, one in Syria (orange) and the other in Iraq and mostly likely will never get one in Turkey.

They seem to be being used to cut off oil to Syria and probably prevent supplies moving from Iran to Syria, I guess if that's the case they could be getting some support from Israel.

Directly or indirectly the Sykes Picot agreement is slowly being remade

Edited April 18, 2020 by El Nikko

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

The Kurds are good folks. They believe in women’s rights, had a Jewish community in Erbil and are fiercely independent. I hope that someday they become an actual country as opposed to an autonomous zone - the Iraqis will try to prevent this. Being landlocked they are presently at the mercy of Iraq and Turkey to get their oil to market.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Vvv

[Marcin2 + 726]

Current actions of UAE authorities are proof of their political wisdom and long-term focus.

UAE is a tiny country with a tiny population: 1.4 m citizens and 8.0 other residents make just under 10 million population.

UAE is uniquely positioned as the only of 2 Middle Eastern countries that succesfully overcome the Curse of Oil (the other is Iran).

It has thriving non-oil sector, also function as important trade intermediary in the region, they want to keep this sector safe and developing.

It is wise that in the times of increased global and regional turbulence they distance themselves from direct involvement in hot spots.

I do not agree with the author of this article that they have so much ambition in regional politics as to compete with Turkey or try to switch places with Saudi Arabia.

Long-term they know that Saudi Arabia would go down, cause it is just oil, sand and 20 million of unemployable Saudi, and Iran would become regional hegemon and natural co-operation partner.

They are just in a good economic position and distance themselves and hedge their bets to keep it. Most important summary: they are happy in safety of US sphere of influence and just do not want to piss off Iran.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

Current actions of UAE authorities are proof of their political wisdom and long-term focus.

UAE is a tiny country with a tiny population: 1.4 m citizens and 8.0 other residents make just under 10 million population.

UAE is uniquely positioned as the only of 2 Middle Eastern countries that succesfully overcome the Curse of Oil (the other is Iran).

It has thriving non-oil sector, also function as important trade intermediary in the region, they want to keep this sector safe and developing.

It is wise that in the times of increased global and regional turbulence they distance themselves from direct involvement in hot spots.

I do not agree with the author of this article that they have so much ambition in regional politics as to compete with Turkey or try to switch places with Saudi Arabia.

Long-term they know that Saudi Arabia would go down, cause it is just oil, sand and 20 million of unemployable Saudi, and Iran would become regional hegemon and natural co-operation partner.

They are just in a good economic position and distance themselves and hedge their bets to keep it. Most important summary: they are happy in safety of US sphere of influence and just do not want to piss off Iran.

I don't think it's an article critical of the UAE but it cannot be denied that they have been militarily engaged especially in Libya for several years and Turkey only recently sent serious arms and troops there. The large number of Turkish drones shot down in Libya by UAE weapons shows they are in some form of direct conflict.

Interesting to note that Turkey showed support for Qatar which the Saudi's, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have blockaded, I believe that both Turkey and Qatar support the Muslim Brotherhood which is outlawed in Saudi and probably UAE plus Egypt. Qatar seem to have funded ISIS and Turkey have allowed logistics to flow across it's border to ISIS type groups.

I'm not sure there is any conflict between Saudi and the UAE but the latter pulled out of Yemen while the Saudi's have continued to send cannon fodder which does look like the UAE are more circumspect in their decision making than the Saudi's.

I think there is a geopolitical struggle ongoing and also that the various actors are looking to establish their own spheres of influence.

Interesting times

[BradleyPNW + 282]

MBS made too many foolish moves: kidnapping the PM of Lebanon, extorting Saudis in a hotel, buying a ridiculously massive yacht, running a western investment PR campaign then throwing it in the garbage by violently killing a journalist, etc. I'm not sure if MBS is singularly behind hacking Jeff Bezos or if that was in conjunction with UAE's Project Raven and MBZ's knowledge. In contrast, Qatar successfully lobbied Washington DC after the KSA, UAE blockade. Basically, MBS is a buffoon among buffoons

MBZ knows Trump is toast and the USA will rebalance Middle East relations after January 2021. MBZ is like a GPS after missing a turn, "recalculating, recalculating...." 

Middle East royalty are fools. MBZ is the type of fool who at least has self-preservation instincts. I don't know if he's bright enough to acknowledge he's better off with the US State Department or not, but he certainly has self preservation instincts MBS lacks. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-spying-raven-specialreport/special-report-inside-the-uaes-secret-hacking-team-of-u-s-mercenaries-idUSKCN1PO19O

[abood alyazedi + 1]

What about southern Yemen?

Will it separate Yemen and return two countries, south and north of Yemen?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, El Nikko said:

For anone interested in the geopolitical changes North Africa and the Middle East.

------------------------

Whereas the leaders of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, popularly known as MBS and MBZ respectively, have a number of reasons to stay united and support each other, inter-state relations are never static, with critical differences between them emerging at every turn even when state interests converge deeply. When the UAE decided in 2019 to withdraw its troops from Yemen, it was percieved as an act of ‘abandoning’ of Saudi Arabia. However, whereas differences did not, at the time, turn out to be too big to bridge, there remains little doubt that the UAE, already an important regional player, is changing its geo-political game in the wake of increasingly weakening Saudi position in the Middle East. The tiny Arab state is, as a part of its new game-plan, redefining and changing its relations, properly utilising the COVID-19 context, with both the US and Iran.

This change of game-plan is supposed to work at two levels: globally, the UAE aims to replace the Saudis as the US’ biggest regional ally and thus become a front-runner; regionally, by redefining its relations with Iran, it hopes to emerge as a new leader. By doing so, the UAE further aims to not only challenge Turkish regional ambitions, but also position itself as a major interlocutor between the US and Iran in the future.

This was clearly observed when, as opposed to Saudi Arabia, the UAE officials did support easing of sanctions on Iran to help it fight the pandemic. The support directly translated into medical shipments sent to Tehran. Again, as opposed to Saudia accusing Iran for the spread of COVID-19 in the Middle East, the UAE joined hands, out of its bid to change its image in the region, with the WHO to send medical aid. The Emirati air-force deployed an aircraft that carried 7.5 tonnes of cargo from Dubai to Iran.

The Saudis, on the other hand, took a series of action that showed them hardening the usual “battle lines” against Iran. Contrasting policies of the UAE and Saudia tend to highlight the differences. As early as March 6, the Saudi official said that Iran’s “irresponsible actions….are a proof of Iran’s direct responsibility in increasing COVID-19 infections and in the virus’s outbreak all around the world…”

At the same time, the Saudis have been trying to make sure that no international pressure builds on the US regarding easing sanctions on Iran. In this regard, the Kingdom, along with some other countries, blocked the Non-Aligned Movement’s statement that called for lifting US sanctions on Iran to enable it to better cope with the pandemic.

The UAE, however, did not become a party to this, thus maintaining its own course vis-à-vis Iran that it had adopted initially by withdrawing its forces from Yemen, deployed against the Iranian supported Houthis.

Similarly, when the US and Iran came eye-ball to eye-ball in the recent military stand-off after General Soleimani’s killing, the UAE was the first from the ‘Saudi camp’ to reach out to Iran to make sure that it remains safe from attacks. The Trump administration also remained silent when the UAE last October released US$700 million in frozen Iranian assets that ran counter to US and Saudi efforts to strangle Iran economically with harsh sanctions.

Apart from the Iran question, the Saudi-UAE ‘tensions’, even after UAE withdrawal from Yemen, still continue to recur in Yemen. In Yemen, the Saudi supported government and the UAE supported Southern Transitional Council remain constantly at logger heads. In March, tensions escalated when the Saudis deliberately blocked Southern Transitional Council officials from returning to Aden for political negotiations, showing how both blocks were far from playing for each other as allies, and that they were more of involved in a power struggle to give their supported factions an upper hand in any future political set up.

Already, political differences between the Yemeni government and the Council have translated into military conflict with Saudia deciding to expand its deployment of elite forces to guard the city of Aden against any hostilities instigated by the [UAE backed] Southern Council.

In Syria, the UAE has been playing its game against Turkey. On the one hand, as some media reports indicated, the UAE has been actively trying to sabotage US support for Turkey’s interventions in Syria, and on the other, it has even offered billions to Syria’s Assad to break the ceasefire in Idlib and attack Turkish forces, although MBZ called this money ‘aid’ for the fight against COVID-19.

Whereas the UAE’s intention as to engage the Turkish forces in a costly war, larger regional ambitions were also at work there. It was UAE’s response to Turkey’s increasing involvement in Libya. The year-long offensive on Tripoli mounted by Haftar’s UAE-backed Libyan National Army has been stalled by Ankara’s deployment of drones, Turkish troops and its proxy ‘warriors’ from Syria.

The UAE is thus actively engaged in at least three different scenarios and is pursuing policies that seemingly run counter to the interests of its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

The underlying shift in policies is as much a part of the growing differences between the two Gulf countries as a glimpse of growing power struggle within the Arab countries about regional leadership roles. The Saudis are seemingly undergoing a ‘hegemonic fatigue’ and the Emirati leaders, sensing the Saudi state of affairs and the decline, are gearing up to switch the roles; hence, the easing of tense relations with Iran and increasingly assertive geo-political indirect interventions in Yemen (against Saudia) and in Syria (against the Turks).

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

https://journal-neo.org/2020/04/16/middle-east-how-is-the-uae-changing-its-geo-political-game/

Do you think that Saudi Arabia could improve its long term prospects by gradually sending its working immigrants home and putting its young people to work? It looks like they need to keep some females for wives since they have a surplus of males. I don't really see how they can avoid a drop in standard of living without a lot of work by citizens. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

9 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Do you think that Saudi Arabia could improve its long term prospects by gradually sending its working immigrants home and putting its young people to work? It looks like they need to keep some females for wives since they have a surplus of males. I don't really see how they can avoid a drop in standard of living without a lot of work by citizens. 

When I was last working there (7 years ago) they were in the process of replacing the expats with their own people and I imagine that will have still been going on but I'm not sure about the jobs the immigrants do such as taxi driving etc as I imagine many of them would see that as beneath them. The Shia/Shiite dominated areas near Damam and Al Kobar are where ARAMCO is mostly based and I think they might have been getting jobs in the workshop but not sure about the better jobs like MWD/LWD/Direction drillers etc...it's a touchy subject and one that is tricky to bring up. There was a time when it was only expats (firstly Europeans and Americans and later Egyptians etc) doing most of the skilled oilfield jobs there but that seems to have changed a lot over the years from what I see on LinkedIn. One problem though is that in most of those countries, we would train them up and they would then use their position within the large service companies to move to Europe or the US.

I would agree with you though and I think that was the basis for MBS's 2030 vision.

[Marcin2 + 726]

10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The Kurds are good folks. They believe in women’s rights, had a Jewish community in Erbil and are fiercely independent. I hope that someday they become an actual country as opposed to an autonomous zone - the Iraqis will try to prevent this. Being landlocked they are presently at the mercy of Iraq and Turkey to get their oil to market.

Unfortunately for Kurds they have very bad geographical location.

Kurds do not have any supporters of their cause both in the region and globally.
United States used them for tactical reasons of first weakening Iraq since 1990s, and later to weaken and partition Syria and weaken both Turkey and Iran.

Major chance of Kurds would be if region becomes stable and developed and they are given autonomy. Their existence under the power of US military occupying the 2 countries in the region: Syria and Iraq and under US economic war against the 3rd is not sustainable.

Turkey is 80 million, Iran 80 million, Iraq 40 million and Syria 25 million and the most vital interest of these 4 countries with 225 million citizens is that Kurds would never have their state.

This is difficult especially for Kurds but this is real politic of the region.

Maybe their US friends would carve out some US territory and create 51 state: Kurdistan.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

6 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

MBZ knows Trump is toast

Well, if Trump is toast, so is this website because Joey Two Fingers has already declared war on fracking. And without fracking--like it or not--we're back to 2000 production figures. So, maybe we rename this sucker, call it Fire, Wind and Sun.

[Marcin2 + 726]

4 hours ago, El Nikko said:

When I was last working there (7 years ago) they were in the process of replacing the expats with their own people and I imagine that will have still been going on but I'm not sure about the jobs the immigrants do such as taxi driving etc as I imagine many of them would see that as beneath them.

I would agree with you though and I think that was the basis for MBS's 2030 vision.

From your experience how massive was replacement of expats by Saudi ? Was it only in oil industry or observed it anywhere else ?

Have you met any Saudi engineer not educated abroad ?

[El Nikko + 2,145]

26 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

From your experience how massive was replacement of expats by Saudi ? Was it only in oil industry or observed it anywhere else ?

Have you met any Saudi engineer not educated abroad ?

I think it's been accellerating rapidly over the last decade and that is probably why it's been so hard or maybe impossible to get a job over there the last few years. I survived with Baker (constantly being chased from one job to another due to being replaced) till the Libyan revolution where I was made redundant for the last time. I had another oportunity to work in Malaysia but I knew that it would be only a matter of time before it would happen again so I became a consultant and was farmed out to Weatherford doing their geosteering for them because they didn't have their own and eventually ended up doing US shale for the last 6 years.

Just to clarity it was a gradual process at first, my experience in Algeria many years ago was as followed. I was a senior mudlogging iunit manager and wellsite geologist and my opo was an Australian. We all lived in Europe. half our guys were laid off and replaced with Egyptians which we trained, then we laid off more Europeans and hired some Algerians (it was called nationalisation). I moved to MWD and watched the rest of my friends get laid off including the Egyptians. Same happened in MWD which is when I got a job in well placement, the whole process lasted around 4 years. In my new job the same thing happened, they claimed we were too expensive but I'm not sure that is true because wages .

When I was last in Saudi for Baker there was a mixture of Saudis in office jobs, geoscience and workshop and lots working for ARAMCO mostly educated overseas and when I went back for WFD it was more.  I do think they have some universities that have geoscience and engineering in Saudi but many of the ARAMCO guys were educated outside of there because the government paid their education. Our universities charge much more for foreign students.

I would never advise anyone to go into the oilfield unless they had a large domestic industry. In hindsite my biggest mistake was to leave the North Sea but I thought it would give me more experience and look good on my C.V 😂

[moroundiya 0]

Wow, Great Article

<a href="http://newsgist.com.ng/2020/04/15/ukraine-president-offers-to-give-1million-to-any-scientist-that-develops-vaccine-for-coronavirus/"> Ukraine President Offers To Give $1Million To Any Scientist That Develops Vaccine For Coronavirus </a>

[BradleyPNW + 282]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, if Trump is toast, so is this website because Joey Two Fingers has already declared war on fracking. And without fracking--like it or not--we're back to 2000 production figures. So, maybe we rename this sucker, call it Fire, Wind and Sun.

Coal industry placed their faith in Donald as lord and savior, too. Also, Biden didn't declare a war on fracking, he said no new wall not no new wells. His position on federal lands will probably change after the election when he finds out progressives don't deliver EC votes. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

15 hours ago, El Nikko said:

16 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Current actions of UAE authorities are proof of their political wisdom and long-term focus.

UAE is a tiny country with a tiny population: 1.4 m citizens and 8.0 other residents make just under 10 million population.

UAE is uniquely positioned as the only of 2 Middle Eastern countries that succesfully overcome the Curse of Oil (the other is Iran).

It has thriving non-oil sector, also function as important trade intermediary in the region, they want to keep this sector safe and developing.

It is wise that in the times of increased global and regional turbulence they distance themselves from direct involvement in hot spots.

I do not agree with the author of this article that they have so much ambition in regional politics as to compete with Turkey or try to switch places with Saudi Arabia.

Long-term they know that Saudi Arabia would go down, cause it is just oil, sand and 20 million of unemployable Saudi, and Iran would become regional hegemon and natural co-operation partner.

They are just in a good economic position and distance themselves and hedge their bets to keep it. Most important summary: they are happy in safety of US sphere of influence and just do not want to piss off Iran.

I don't think it's an article critical of the UAE but it cannot be denied that they have been militarily engaged especially in Libya for several years and Turkey only recently sent serious arms and troops there. The large number of Turkish drones shot down in Libya by UAE weapons shows they are in some form of direct conflict.

Interesting to note that Turkey showed support for Qatar which the Saudi's, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have blockaded, I believe that both Turkey and Qatar support the Muslim Brotherhood which is outlawed in Saudi and probably UAE plus Egypt. Qatar seem to have funded ISIS and Turkey have allowed logistics to flow across it's border to ISIS type groups.

I'm not sure there is any conflict between Saudi and the UAE but the latter pulled out of Yemen while the Saudi's have continued to send cannon fodder which does look like the UAE are more circumspect in their decision making than the Saudi's.

I think there is a geopolitical struggle ongoing and also that the various actors are looking to establish their own spheres of influence.

Interesting times

The situation is simple. They are working with Iran because it bombed them. Nobody came to help, they are tiny, so they figured they could sit in the middle where they get to play a Swiss role, benefiting from everyone. They want protection, they can have it with US presence or by being Iran's intermediary. 

Turkey is now playing a regional role outside NATO to fill the space vacated by US' indifference.  Not clear to me at all who would side with Turkey on a rational basis. It has publicly stated its position that all of the ME is going to be incorporated into a greater Turkey. It should have nobody in the region on its side. Qatar's support of the Islamic Brotherhood is a bit of a puzzle for me, as it is a source of trouble for everyone and I just don't see how Qatar benefits from the relationship.