European Union is Dead but Does Not Yet Know It

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

As you say, Europe would have to pay for its own defense. But that is not all of it, it would have to defend its trade routes. They have an imaginary closed loop system that would recycle all the imported materials and use renewable energy. I don't believe the scheme is workable, and Germany is both a big exporter and importer of components and materials. 

 

Agree. It won't happen tomorrow. But necessity is the mother of many things. 

4 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

If Europe behaves on its own the way it has under the US umbrella, then Turkey will control Greece and most of the Balkans and Russia will overtake the Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine.  

The EU members that blatantly don't comply with EU values will have to make a choice. This includes Denmark which through the Baltic borders Russia. 

+++++++++++++++++

But imagine if it could work - it would free a lot of US resources to focus on China. Maybe consolidate North and South America...

[Marcin2 + 725]

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

why do people with no skin in the European game take such interest??? 

United States has skin in the European game: the weaker European Union the easier for US to realize their strategic goal of preserving hegemony.

Remember anything else just does  not matter in comparison to this goal.

The best scenario for US would be break up of EU.

That is the dream that was formulated many times by American commenters at this forum.

I do not blame them, it is patriotic in narrow sense for Americans to want weaker, subordinate Europe.

This is the effect of century of exceptionalism and isolation from the rest of the world.

In comparison to Europeans US citizens hardly ever travel around the world , I mean for leisure, to take interest in diverse cultures.

These are just statistics about number of foreign trips of Americans, I presented the data in the past.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

it is patriotic in narrow sense for Americans to want weaker, subordinate Europe.

^bingo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, James Regan said:

With oil thats nae worth taking ooot the groond.

America is a loose term your supposed to be the UNITED States of America - United is very debatable.

Our Kingdon is United other than we hate the English...

Why would you say that the States are not united? How are they less united than the UK?

[Marcin2 + 725]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, but what is wrong with maintaining your national identity and each nation forging their own trade deals? Just asking...

Was the ‘old’ Europe really so bad?

We are all too tiny  countries to compete globally with US and China.

Look even Japan is too small to have independent trade policy: They hedge all sides: TPP-1, East Asian Economic Union and US.

Japan is just 5, US is 21, China is 14 ( 27 in PPP), and Germany is 4.

And poor, poor Britain is 3.

EU-1 is still 15.

Together we are stronger, alone we are at mercy of bipolar world.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

We are all too tiny  countries to compete globally with US and China.

Look even Japan is too small to have independent trade policy: They hedge all sides: TPP-1, East Asian Economic Union and US.

Japan is just 5, US is 21, China is 14 ( 27 in PPP), and Germany is 4.

And poor, poor Britain is 3.

EU-1 is still 15.

Together we are stronger, alone we are at mercy of bipolar world.

Your choice, hope it works out. You didn’t seem to be helping each other out during this pandemic.

[Marcin2 + 725]

And there is 1 particular process that proved for a lot of Europeans that EU is essential for our future.

This is hegemonic conflict, I do not take sides, I am just talking about how huge it is for smaller countries. It us like nuclear economic war for tiny countries.

US imposing tariffs on 0.5 trillion dollars  of Chinese trade or sanctioning 0.12 trillion revenue Company like Huawei.

Nobody but China could withstand such punches, and Chinese economy barely noticed these moves.

Think about Germany and Siemens or Volkswagen, they would be f@cked, devastated by such a blow.

Even do not imagine how smaller country would be affected.

It is time of elephants, ants are not welcome.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Marcin2 + 725]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Your choice, hope it works out. You didn’t seem to be helping each other out during this pandemic.

We are not brothers in EU, we are just close friends with common economic interests. Pandemic is life and death situation, and these moves like by France saved lives.

It is timing that counts. In January and February China scouted world for 2.2 billion masks. In March they exported ( or manufactured, do not remember exact source if this number ) 3.86 billion, in next months they would flood the world with them.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

Why don't Southern Europe Countries citizens use their voting system for improving their politics and economy? It seems to me they are holding EU unity as an hostages for ransom? If you want to open a business but don't have money, you need a business plan and submit to the bank for a loan. What make they think they can survive better on their own, especially I don't think China can help them much anymore? I understand that Brexit is because UK wants to cut the burden but with Greece, Italy and Spain aren't they the burdens? Don't they have lots of benefit in tourism and sea transportation in an EU. Shouldn't they blame their own leaders?

I think EU is great for world peace and order and they did save lots of money on having a military investment in each country. I don't think US mind healthy competitors (Wasn't US responsible for where China is now? And in 1970s, the rise of Japan?). It is  good for US political system as well. I don't think US really want EU countries against each other.

Edited April 20, 2020 by SUZNV

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

We are not brothers in EU, we are just close friends with common economic interests. Pandemic is life and death situation, and these moves like by France saved lives.

It is timing that counts. In January and February China scouted world for 2.2 billion masks. In March they exported ( or manufactured, do not remember exact source if this number ) 3.86 billion, in next months they would flood the world with them.

Doesn’t change the fact that Europe ‘abandoned’ the whole union concept fairly quickly and it was every man for himself. No pooling of resources as you would have expected.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Just like a New Yorker is different to a Texan... they are both still Americans... 

Keep in mind that there is a movement underfoot to cut New York City loose and let it float by itself as a city-state, a bit like Singapore.   Works for me.  Who needs it, anyway?  

Florida causes lots of problems, from COVID cruise ships to imported dope to money laundering to political chaos.  Personally, it is my view that if Florida, the home of the "hanging chad" and lots of old wrecks living in a mental fog for the last thirty years, cannot be persuaded to secede from the Uniion, then it should be expelled......

[Marcin2 + 725]

25 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

I don't think US mind healthy competitors (Wasn't US responsible for where China is now? And in 1970s, the rise of Japan?). It is  good for US political system as well. I don't think US really want EU countries against each other.

The problem China is too healthy for the United States. US economy is in ICU since 2008, under oxygen ventilator of zero interest rates, not able to breath independently, as was shown in 1 year recent period when they tried to.

1970s US policies were After China - Soviet Union split. Remember that until 1970s US was in active containment of China, they did not allow them into UN. Yes China should be very grateful that US stopped sanctions against them in 1970s, cause they wanted them against Soviet Union. This gamble did not pay off as China developed too quickly. First sanctions came in 1989, but in early 2000 harsh sanctions were in  the cards since first months of Cheney-Bush. 9/11 saved China and allowed them into WTO in return for backing War on Terror,remember that Clinton refused earlier.

And later it was too late to contain China, the largest blunder of US policy in the last 200 years.

EU interrupts in US technology sanctions against China. EU still refuses to stop scientific and technology cooperation with China. This is the most important for US as technology gap is only Chinese weakness.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Gregory Purcell + 94]

3 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

The problem China is too healthy for the United States. US economy is in ICU since 2008, under oxygen ventilator of zero interest rates, not able to breath independently, as was shown in 1 year recent period when they tried to.

1970s US policies were After China - Soviet Union split. Remember that until 1970s US was in active containment of China, they did not allow them into UN. Yes China should be very grateful that US stopped sanctions against them in 1970s, cause they wanted them against Soviet Union. This gamble did not pay off as China developed too quickly. First sanctions came in 1989, but in early 2000 harsh sanctions were in  the cards since first months of Cheney-Bush. 9/11 saved China and allowed them into WTO in return for backing War on Terror,remember that Clinton refused earlier.

And later it was too late to contain China, the largest blunder of US policy in the last 200 years.

July 17 2018

"

There are three great geographic power-centers in the world. The Anglo-American/transatlantic one which is often called 'the west'. Mackinder's heartland, which is essentially Russia as the core of the Eurasian landmass, and China, which historically rules over Asia. Any alliance of two of those power-centers can determine the fate of the world.

Kissinger's and Nixon's biggest political success was to separate China from the Soviet Union. That did not make China an ally of the United States, but it broke the Chinese-Soviet alliance. It put the U.S. into a premier position, a first among equals. But even then Kissinger already foresaw the need to balance back to Russia:

On Feb. 14, 1972, President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger met to discuss Nixon’s upcoming trip to China. Kissinger, who had already taken his secret trip to China to begin Nixon’s historic opening to Beijing, expressed the view that compared with the Russians, the Chinese were “just as dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous over a historical period.”

Kissinger then observed that “in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese.” He argued that the United States, as it sought to profit from the enmity between Moscow and Beijing, needed “to play this balance-of-power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians.” But in the future, it would be the other way around.

It took 45 years, not 20 as Kissinger foresaw, to rebalance the U.S. position.

After the Cold War the U.S. thought it had won the big ideological competition of the twentieth century. In its exuberance of the 'unilateral moment' it did everything possible to antagonize Russia. Against its promises it extended NATO to Russia's border. It wanted to be the peerless supreme power of the world. At the same time it invited China into the World Trade Organisation and thereby enabled its explosive economic growth. This unbalanced policy took its toll. The U.S. lost industrial capacity to China and at the same time drove Russia into China's hands. Playing the global hegemon turned out to be very expensive. It led to the 2006 crash of the U.S. economy and its people have seen little to no gains from it. Trump wants to revert this situation by rebalancing towards Russia while opposing China's growing might."       

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/07/helsinki-talks-how-trump-tries-to-rebalance-the-global-triangle.html

[0R0 + 6,251]

23 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

United States has skin in the European game: the weaker European Union the easier for US to realize their strategic goal of preserving hegemony.

Remember anything else just does  not matter in comparison to this goal.

The best scenario for US would be break up of EU.

That is the dream that was formulated many times by American commenters at this forum.

I do not blame them, it is patriotic in narrow sense for Americans to want weaker, subordinate Europe.

This is the effect of century of exceptionalism and isolation from the rest of the world.

In comparison to Europeans US citizens hardly ever travel around the world , I mean for leisure, to take interest in diverse cultures.

These are just statistics about number of foreign trips of Americans, I presented the data in the past.

US is not interested in being hegemon now that the Soviets are gone and there is plenty of oil in the US. It is just interested in China not being one. Traditionally the US supported the formation of the EU as a stronger backbone to NATO. Americans feel nothing at all about Europe as individual states vs a a federation of them. We here just use it as an example of horrible governance and socialism as most on this forum are free marketeers, (but for the case of our oil investments and jobs). 

As about 10% of Americans served abroad, there is plenty that was seen. Not in the best light and not the nicest places. Many travel as well, though it is not as in Europe that you feel well traveled because you went through 5 different languages within 300 miles. 

The US century of exceptionalism is not isolation, it is the most open the country had been since the 1930s, when it was actually closed up pretty tight. Isolation, in a way, is what the US wants now that it is not really under mortal threat. It just doesn't want relationships that are economically and militarily one sided. The deal where the US bears the bulk of the costs and pays the others to join the defense arrangement with free trade access was on its way out one way or the other. The US wanted to take its trade partners along on a format beneficial to the US that has the allies cover their share. Few were willing to take such a deal upfront. Europe is still not answering one way or the other.

The US would have preferred to take China along as well, but China views everything as a confrontation and affront. So it looks like the initial agreement is moot and will whither, and the tariffs will rise further next year. China will have to figure out its way on its own. There is little expectation that China would become hegemon, because it is beyond its reach and its heavy handed manners turn relationships sour and subsidiary. 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Monetary union without unified fiscal union does not work; people here have been saying that for 15+ years. 

 

Another point on the matter is that financial union would not eliminate the disadvantages of the South. It would just make the blight into a more inextricable problem. It would not improve Italian anything. Not the weak financial system and rules, not the unions and bureaucracy, not the insufficient food production, not the lack of domestic energy. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It isn't really possible for the Eurozone to continue. The initial benefit to Germany was not met with any benefit to the economies of the South, but only for their government's finances, which were offered unrealistically low interest rates because of their membership in EMU.

But having a fixed exchange with a better competitively positioned N. Europe made S, Europe impossible. They could no longer adjust their currency to compensate for competitive deficiencies that they could or would not address. So they were hollowed out, and trade deals by the EU put them at a further disadvantage to ex EU imports as they had Lira and Franc productivity but German mark pricing. But for Germans and Dutch this controlled inflation.

Anyway, the EU project is looking doomed, the EMU is going to be broken, as the south will take its dominant position in the ECB and force Germany to take a weaker Euro or leave, which Germany probably will if the South remains politically unified. Unlike recent history where they didn't hold their ground. This time there is no choice.  Germany will have to decide what to do while the ECB is loaded with Italian and Greek toxic bonds as Lagarde is forced by the committee to buy them regardless of the financial mess. 

 

So it worked EXACTLY like the Germans and the Dutch wanted, then.  Hmmm...

[Marcin2 + 725]

1 hour ago, Gregory Purcell said:

Trump wants to revert this situation by rebalancing towards Russia while opposing China's growing might."       

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/07/helsinki-talks-how-trump-tries-to-rebalance-the-global-triangle.html

I think it is too late. Russia became pivotal power and alliance with China gives them strategic stability for forever or at least next 100 years.

Russia is safe under Chinese economic supremacy, it is relatively so small that China can keep them as pet economy like they keep Taiwan, just for the sake of stability in Eurasia.

Plus China is the client for unlimited quantities of all Russian natural resources indefinitely.

And last but not least Russia has military technology supremacy which China wants to take.

[Marcin2 + 725]

40 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

US is not interested in being hegemon now that the Soviets are gone and there is plenty of oil in the US. It is just interested in China not being one. 

It is not Chinese fault that they are geographically predestined for global supremacy.

Unique features of 3 large long rivers with the largest of them with unpredictable catastrophic floods. All 3 rivers with latitudinal flows into Pacific.

All of this on the huge 2 million square kilometers of good arable land. 
In this conditions millions of people can thrive but they need to cooperate or perish in the floods and hunger.

So China was always the most populous country with the largest economy, the last 150 years just an aberration.

It is not their fault, 1,400 million smart people cannot be anything else but hegemonic country and 340 million people cannot prevent this to happen.

[Marcin2 + 725]

And last but not least, remember the heptapods from the movie Arrival ? Chinese languages allegedly develop brain due to their difficulty.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

24 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

It is not their fault, 1,400 million smart people cannot be anything else but hegemonic country and 340 million people cannot prevent this to happen.

You think all 1.4 billion are all smart??

i would disagree and say they are told what to do, how to behave, how to live their lives and even what to think by the CCP.

that to me is the antithesis of smart!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

EU interrupts in US technology sanctions against China. EU still refuses to stop scientific and technology cooperation with China. This is the most important for US as technology gap is only Chinese weakness.

I would suggest that China has other weaknesses besides just a technology gap.  CCP leadership being a prime one.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

It is not Chinese fault that they are geographically predestined for global supremacy.

Unique features of 3 large long rivers with the largest of them with unpredictable catastrophic floods. All 3 rivers with latitudinal flows into Pacific.

All of this on the huge 2 million square kilometers of good arable land. 
In this conditions millions of people can thrive but they need to cooperate or perish in the floods and hunger.

So China was always the most populous country with the largest economy, the last 150 years just an aberration.

It is not their fault, 1,400 million smart people cannot be anything else but hegemonic country and 340 million people cannot prevent this to happen.

Had 2 million sqkm of arable land 

https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2019/05/reclaiming-chinas-worn-out-farmland-dont-treat-soil-dirt-2/

That is 1.2 million sqkm now. They contaminated 19% and built over 21% and replaced it with land that is 60% less productive. That is why they have not been able to raise food production any further for 6 years. 

They have one navigable river with Wuhan at one end. 

They are destined to be on their own unless they get control of the sea.

I am a believer in a Russia China match, first because I see it, though the Russians are wary, But they diverge on many interests, Russia is a great supplier, but it is a really small market and can't industrialize while in a trade and security arrangement with China. Russia is also too small a food exporter to meet China's growing needs. 

I am not a subscriber to the heartland theory because it ignores the high cost of land transort vs. sea. It is naturally secure if the land route is run through friendly. The "control" needs to include the SE Asia Islands. Russia can't help there, and it is not coming for free, if at all, as they are all natural competitors to China, which had derailed them before the Asian Financial crisis by a large devaluation. 

[TooSteep + 142]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

It is not their fault, 1,400 million smart people cannot be anything else but hegemonic country and 340 million people cannot prevent this to happen.

There is nothing smart about serfdom. The serfs cannot even be trusted to play video games anymore:

"Taiwanese media reports that China is to ban online gamers from interacting with foreigners. (Note this is a massive industry where China is the world’s largest single market). What is a vast informal channel of communication between China and the outside world is apparently to be severed. Moreover, the report also claims that online games will be monitored at all times and can no longer contain plagues, zombies, map-editing, role-playing, or any in-game group organizations, clans, or unions."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-game-over-man-game-over

I laughed out loud at the bit about plagues...

[SUZNV + 1,197]

I want to add that China gained even more strategy advantage with the invasion of Tibetan and capture the water source of 5 big rivers.

The strategic position can only be utilized and sustained by great leadership. Just like manage a company worth 3 millions is much different than 30 millions and even more with 300 millions. China kingdoms has many time collapses with its poor  administration, rotten from within. Politician/Royal corruptions were the sources of many great  kingdom collapsed in history. And current Chinese CCP is exporting corruption.

I don't really understand what disadvantages Spain and Italia had over France and Germany were reset after WW2 but political system and cultures/believe. I like the super delegates idea as it is somewhat limited "mobs rule". I was impressed in US 2016 election where the result is opposite to the mainstream's choice. It shows a high percentage of independent thoughts and anti political correctness. Not all countries can achieve greatness with Democracy along.

I appreciate Taiwan for taking the pressure. If China economy is burst and have nothing to lose, CCP may attack Taiwan to build it credit with their people. I don't know if US will intervene.

Edited April 20, 2020 by SUZNV

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

why do people with no skin in the European game take such interest??? 

Our families mainly came from Europe not that long ago. The thing is that we actually know what we are talking about when it comes to Europe. We spent our blood and money saving the place from the fascists and then the Soviet Union. I spent 26 months in Germany helping to defend it from the Soviets. Now, many Germans are happy to forget about all of that and just run the place for their own benefit. We still have a lot of bodies buried in cemetaries all around Europe.