European Union is Dead but Does Not Yet Know It

[Floyd Looney + 8]

On 4/20/2020 at 4:53 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Let's see. Give it 5 - 10 years. 

I understand and respect why you want to believe the EU will die. I understand why Trump wants it to die.... We live in a uncertain world. I would much rather a functioning EU looking after my global interests than relying on American wims that is really on based on a mercantilist approach to trade... 

People said Trump wouldn't get elected. 

The EU has never and will never "look after" your interests. Why would America whims be the alternative? Does your country (or EU Province) have a functioning government? Why can't it "look after your interests"?

 

Hillary was never going to win, even the media knew she was a horrid candidate.

[Thomas Holm + 7]

Why didn´t EU help Italy when things started to go (very) wrong ?   First you need to know, that EUs

 Budget is very small (just around 1% off GDP) , Total Budget for 1 year is some 162 Billion $ (just 361 $ pr person). So there is not a big budget that fast can help.  Second Healtcare isn´t an EU area, its up to the 27 member states how to run there helthcare system,how to fund it,how much to spend ect. Third. EU has 27 member states, so it takes time and is hard to find a commen solution to a problem.

 

Countrys like Grecce and Italy,Spain,France are very fast to demand solidarity from "the rich" North but what about solidarity the other way ? Do they live up to Eus common rules ?  FX maximum 60% of GDP i Debt ?  No. Italy,Greece,Spain,France has all been members of the Euro in 20 Years, But still have not reduced thire debt to Maximum 60 % of GDP.  Germany Economy was quite bad after, the Reunification with East Germany, But they reformed the economy (hard and costly). And now they have reduced the Debt to under 60% of GDP.   I can understand why Germany if fearfull of have to pay/carry the total debt of all EU, its simply not possible.   And Americans should be able to understand too, are US tax payers happy to bail out Detroit,Puerto Rico,California and others in High Debt ???  I think not.

 

There are no free lunch, If Italy,Greece,France want help ??  They must give something in Return, so thire bad finances can be brought under controld. To think that Taxpayers in Germany,Holland,Sweden,Finland,Denmark would just pay to Countrys where Tax evasion is a national sport, where corruption is normal/a way of living and where money offent disapear to the Mafia and others. Is just crazy.

Its not so long time ago, that politicians in Greece and Italy, was talking about breaking EUs rules, that they might not want to pay debt owed back, that the might want to leave the Euro, and that they thinks that Germany still Owes them Money from WW2.  When they didnt get what they wanted ? they called Germans Nazies. Do you feel like leanding more money to people like that ??.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

2 hours ago, Floyd Looney said:

The EU has never and will never "look after" your interests. Why would America whims be the alternative? Does your country (or EU Province) have a functioning government? Why can't it "look after your interests"?

ehh..  go read @0R0 posts about American trade policies. Some fairly good analysis' that explains. 

2 hours ago, Floyd Looney said:

Hillary was never going to win, even the media knew she was a horrid candidate.

exactly. Just like sane people here (i.e. people who do not read Breitbart) know the EU is not dead. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

15 hours ago, Walter Faber said:

@SUZNV
1) I extrapolate from my experience here, I am a student (Bachelor, mathematics) from Germany and for my fellow students and me, it is quite natural to switch between German/English (even though I am not overly talented with foreign languages in general). I expect other STEM subjects (which are the more strategically important, no offence to liberal arts intended here!) to be similar in this regard, although switching may be easier than average in mathematics due to its very formal and symbolic language.I have not yet participated in research, where things may or may not be more of challenge.
Liberal arts in general will likely suffer more from the language/culture barriers of course.
2) I agree that implementing "safe spaces" for apolitical sciences and free entrepreneurship is a challenge to autocratic systems, but I do not deem it impossible, rather more difficult to create and maintain than for a democracy. 
This being said, I believe there is not much disagreement here and otherwise I appreciate the examples [1].
3&4) Again, I appreciate the examples and explanations. [1]
Regarding ideology, I agree that China also covers this field, it appears to be more secondary. While the Soviet Union attempted to convert a country to its ideology, China attempts to convert it to a useful trading partner/source for raw materials.
"It is more subtle, but sustainable and potentially more effective." 
The underlying thinking is that wars between superpowers have become unwinnable due to weapons of mass destruction while military expeditions against smaller powers tend to be not worth the effort compared to writing off losses or exerting power through sanctions. Therefore, military power has declined in relative importance to economic and soft power, and it is the better choice to invest resources in economic developement/foreign investments/education&research instead of a strong military for global interventions (as the US does).
From my perception, the suggested strategy is more or less what China does.

[1] China (and in general Asia) is somewhat underrepresented in German public perception and media, so I i) have only superficial and probably prejudiced knowledge about the region and processes and ii) enjoy reading insights from with experience in this region.
I think many people imagine major Asian autocratic states as perfectly working machines populated by selfless people with ant-like work ethic who precisely execute the directives by the central government, which methodically plans the future of the country over the next hundred years. (Subconsciously, I am probably guilty of this too at times).

I don't have any art skill. I think it is for creative ideas and imaginations (and maybe ideology) but need engineer&science to technically implement them. IMHO, liberal arts is a double edge  has cons and pros:

The cons from liberal arts is sometimes you maybe out of touch of real work.

The drawn back from STEM is sometime you are bound from the experiences,solutions, but if we can think a way to solve problem out of the box or invention, or by pushing the boundary of sciences we implement some amount of art in it.

With Maths we communicate with formula,with IT we communicate with code, with Engineering we communicate with drawings so we have a medium language to use. With the like of biology (macro of micro) which need lots of RAM for terminology, it depends on how different the languages are. The bigger the  number of combined fields terminology and people with different native languages, the less efficiency to communicate (but then behind every language is the cultural way to look at things, I believe some benefits on diversify). I think China depends on Western Educations and experiences for training Chinese scientists at high level (than they can mass training internally in Chinese).

I am curious which language German scientists use in schools and biology tech research? I have heard Germany have some experiments on an University system in English only but don't know much about it.

2 I want to approach with a different angle of view:

Soviet used state control management and ideology economics to  drive technology and failed economically (out of fuel), but they had truly pure selfless scientists and engineers for technology, motivated by ideology (or patriotism) and with some, reputation gains from researches. Soviet use military to achieve Power so most of the R&D concentrated in Military.

Western use private capitalism economics and managements  (for efficiency) to drive technologies, scientists and engineers are motivated by competition on the best cheapest way to solve productivity problems (they enjoy seeing their technology "change the world") and for expertise grow. And they gain reputations among scientists based on their researches. Creativity & inspiration  came from liberty and they may sacrifice part of the income for their favorite high impact jobs in a great deal of industries. R&D makes money for private and private fund money for R&D. Gov use and Military & Diplomacy to achieve strategic power for trading and economics and individual and corporate wealth protection.

China is similar to Soviet above except, like you said, using Economics to achieve Power. Besides the toxic political non liberty ethical research environment I mentioned previously.  CCP has to spend/invest their money to solidify their power on: military, propaganda domestically, international mainstream / corruption politicians for resources/lobbyist/ spying/ stealing, polices and Real Estate. In technology, beside military researches and reverse engineer, they focus on manufacturing and controlling Social networks, Firewalls, Search engine, Face identity, telecommunications such as Mobile and Network to solidify the control of CCP.

Lot's of things to spend on, compares to democracy world. They have to cut cost on everything financially and the best way is stealing IPs or reverse engineering, giving their income came from national resources: cheap labor,  coal, minerals, organs and maybe surgery skills, and their strategic resources from corrupted the 3rd world countries. They are trying to get up the world's supply chain to keep the real estate bubble they created and along with that, their power. But what they was given since join WTO were manufacturing capital optimized cor manual labors and minimum control of pollution. 

“Absolute power corrupts absolutely”. When you joined CCP, your goal is to pocket the government money. If you are a nationalist and love your country, have conscious , the first thing you hate is the CCP corrupted government as it damages your country much much more than any foreign enemy. If you choose to stay, you are very likely compromise your ideology. Many research projects in institute or university  will be like this: You create a research projects and asking for funding. A board of committee assess it and fund your projects. You give back commission to the board and you make some research paper and hand back.

I do realize they have huge advantages in health & microbiology  resources and may give them power to corrupt the world with just this expertise. Their surgery doctors are very skillful, they have huge supply of "donation" organs, even with halal  organs, a lots of patient data for AI training or research, no laws suits if the treatment goes wrong and a pool of  conscious prisoners to test on new virus or vaccine. This is the area they can build an army of researchers and lead the world on. This could also be a paradise for pharmacy && vaccine corporations to cooperate with CCP if they don't have any ethics. I think they have a strong advantage in bio-weapon. (I don't know Wuhan is man-made or not. I guess no one knows, and it will be clear simply because of benefit of the doubt).

One observe that China hid  a lots more damage in Corona virus is their growth rate is -6.8%. You cannot have that much economics shrink if you have 4.5k deaths and lots of government spending in hospitals. Unless China try to reduce the international out·rage as it is victim too and will make a major come back in Q2 to show the resilience of the system. Only in Q2 we may see a full picture.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200417_17/

IMHO, the war in economics can only occurs when every player has the money. We have very very low risk of WW3 simply because of the Western Alliance and China military is far far away from catching up.. However China used to export war oversea for consolidate the ruling fraction power when there is a strong internal conflicts and nothings to lose. They did invade Vietnam in 1979. So if the economy was really bad and somehow they believed US will not in·ter·fere, they may attack Taiwan after the Covid19 is over.  The next US President may attack Iran as well to remove a key player in ME and remove Russia and China's influences in ME. As a purely political chess 's point of view, not as a human's. So a threat of proxy wars are still there in economical crisis time.

I agree there is no potential of a nuke war.  Global Corporations are afraid of it, Governments are afraid of it (even Xi and the CCP don't want to lose all they have) and all of us are afraid of it.

Nice discussion, I gained clearer views about the world while writing this.

Edited April 24, 2020 by SUZNV
missing no

[El Nikko + 2,145]

47 minutes ago, Thomas Holm said:

Why didn´t EU help Italy when things started to go (very) wrong ?   First you need to know, that EUs

 Budget is very small (just around 1% off GDP) , Total Budget for 1 year is some 162 Billion $ (just 361 $ pr person). So there is not a big budget that fast can help.  Second Healtcare isn´t an EU area, its up to the 27 member states how to run there helthcare system,how to fund it,how much to spend ect. Third. EU has 27 member states, so it takes time and is hard to find a commen solution to a problem.

 

Countrys like Grecce and Italy,Spain,France are very fast to demand solidarity from "the rich" North but what about solidarity the other way ? Do they live up to Eus common rules ?  FX maximum 60% of GDP i Debt ?  No. Italy,Greece,Spain,France has all been members of the Euro in 20 Years, But still have not reduced thire debt to Maximum 60 % of GDP.  Germany Economy was quite bad after, the Reunification with East Germany, But they reformed the economy (hard and costly). And now they have reduced the Debt to under 60% of GDP.   I can understand why Germany if fearfull of have to pay/carry the total debt of all EU, its simply not possible.   And Americans should be able to understand too, are US tax payers happy to bail out Detroit,Puerto Rico,California and others in High Debt ???  I think not.

 

There are no free lunch, If Italy,Greece,France want help ??  They must give something in Return, so thire bad finances can be brought under controld. To think that Taxpayers in Germany,Holland,Sweden,Finland,Denmark would just pay to Countrys where Tax evasion is a national sport, where corruption is normal/a way of living and where money offent disapear to the Mafia and others. Is just crazy.

Its not so long time ago, that politicians in Greece and Italy, was talking about breaking EUs rules, that they might not want to pay debt owed back, that the might want to leave the Euro, and that they thinks that Germany still Owes them Money from WW2.  When they didnt get what they wanted ? they called Germans Nazies. Do you feel like leanding more money to people like that ??.

Germany has done very well out of the Euro crisis because it devalued the currency and allowed them to get away with selling their cars etc cheaper than they should have been. Now that's over Germany is still a country that relies on exports for close to half of it's GDP...how's that going to work out?

Blame the Greeks all you want but Germany has taken advantage of the US and other nations in a slightly similar way as the Chinese have done.

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by El Nikko

[Thomas Holm + 7]

18 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Germany has done very well out of the Euro crisis because it devalued the currency and allowed them to get away with selling their cars etc cheaper than they should have been. Now that's over Germany is still a country that relies on exports for close to half of it's GDP...how's that going to work out?

Blame the Greeks all you want but Germany has taken advantage of the US and other nations in a slightly similar way as the Chinese have done.

 

How has Germany done that ? And Japan ? S. Korea ? Holland? No simply not true. After WW2 US was the strongest, and richest country. It could send troops all over the world, help its allies in Europe and Asia, But soon others was chatcing up and tog those niches that US didnt fill fx Small economical cars. USA didnt have (like Japan or Germany has/had) an Industry policy, but just let it be upp to the free market to find out what would work, no plan at all. When the oil crisis hit ? US made Big Cars (low quality) that was very thirsty and nobody would buy. Healthcare cost was gooing up, and in US its the industry thats pays (in Europe/Japan its the taxpayer) so every US car got more expensive. The American market is the biggest and best market to in, so many US business, just sells to the domestic market, its easyer, but that way Germany,Japan,S Korea and later China takes rest off the world. Its Correct that Germany and other in North Europe, has been helped by a weaker Euro after 2008, But that was surely not planed from the start,Germany had likely not entered the Euro, had they known that Italy and Greece would Cheat, Not live up to the rules for debt and decifit. It was US, that in 2008 started with Zero intrest (the FED) and QE programs, so US started to devaluate the Dollar. The Italiens and The Greeks thought all the hard work was over, when they where accepted into the Euro, What they didnt understand was, That it was realy first now (after becomming member) that the hard work started, jo it was not the time to relax (witch was what they did). Germany and others has been against, Most of ECBs programs like Euro QE programs, and ECB buying upp Goverment bonds. So Germany has supportet a Strong Euro, not a weak one.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Every reasonable person knows that international organizations do not work in crisis situations.

In such a situation, the strength of the basic subject, i.e. national states, counts.

The Union made a mistake and I say it as a Pole that under geopolitical pressure of  the US it adopted too many Central and Eastern European countries too quickly into the European Union.

From this arise the problems of southern Europe which has ceased to be competitive with new members of the Union.

From this follows Brexit of Great Britain flooded with newcomers from new EU countries.

And unfortunately it is clearly seen that in Poland and Hungary democracy was imposed after 1989 without understanding its essence so  after some years it turns out that there and even in the Czech Republic the post-communist mentality still prevails.

It would be much better for the Union to come out if it were not in such a hurry with the mass and quick admission of new members, although the pressure to consolidate the profits resulting from the victory in the Cold War was certainly enormous.

[Walter Faber + 48]

@SUZNV

1) 

Quote

I am curious which language German scientists use in schools and biology tech research? I have heard Germany have some experiments on an University system in English only but don't know much about it.j

Basic courses (everything required for Bachelor degree) generally is in German. Master+ is mixed. I do not have much knowledge about the research sector, but scientists aim for citations and you get the largest possible audience by writing in English. So while "lab language" is mostly German, the language for publications is English and if presence of foreign scientists requires it, people have no problem switching language. There is no strong "speak our language or go away" sentiment in Germany. 

 

2)

Quote

Lot's of things to spend on, compares to democracy world.

You are right that autocracies have certain resource drains, yet democracies have their particular downsides too which allows well managed autocracies (with competent benevolent leadership, seldom happens I admit) to catch up: Difficulties with true long term planning, the tendency to pick mediocre compromises over optimal yet unpopular solutions, slow or not thorough action due to distributed power etc.

I am convinced it was either a random jump-over or an unfortunate mistake in a lab. A deliberate action on behalf of the Chinese gouvernement makes no sense whatsoever. Why launch a bioweapon in your own country, then do not handle the outbreak well (after all you "knew" about it beforehand in this scenario) and risk massive economic damage due to lockdowns? 

Other topics:
4)

Quote

  9 hours ago, Walter Faber said:

no offence to liberal arts intended here!

No, please do!

I appreciate liberal arts. There surely is some nonsense, but remember that the idea of unalienable human rights, then equal rights for women, the scientific method that helped us understand the world etc. are great results of liberal arts, and it continues to give valuable input today. 

5)

Quote

but Germany has taken advantage of the US and other nations in a slightly similar way as the Chinese have done.

When there are differences in taxes or subventions, asking for new deals is fair (but remember this works in both directions). 
For the US trade deficit there is a simple solution, start developing products the world wants to buy and manufacture them in the US. The decline of US industry (=trade deficit) is also a result of US business culture. In Germany, the workers have more rights (so shutting down plants in Germany and transfer them abroad will be met with resistance, by law one half of a stock companies board has to be filled with workers representatives!), and companies more often are private and owned by families over generations, therefore less production is moved abroad. 

Btw., the low interest rates that keep the Euro comparatively cheap are NOT popular in Germany, because we like to invest in products with fixed interest and don't like stocks. But it has to be done to help the European South.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Walter Faber

[SUZNV + 1,197]

7 hours ago, Walter Faber said:

@SUZNV

1) 

Basic courses (everything required for Bachelor degree) generally is in German. Master+ is mixed. I do not have much knowledge about the research sector, but scientists aim for citations and you get the largest possible audience by writing in English. So while "lab language" is mostly German, the language for publications is English and if presence of foreign scientists requires it, people have no problem switching language. There is no strong "speak our language or go away" sentiment in Germany. 

 

2)

You are right that autocracies have certain resource drains, yet democracies have their particular downsides too which allows well managed autocracies (with competent benevolent leadership, seldom happens I admit) to catch up: Difficulties with true long term planning, the tendency to pick mediocre compromises over optimal yet unpopular solutions, slow or not thorough action due to distributed power etc.

I am convinced it was either a random jump-over or an unfortunate mistake in a lab. A deliberate action on behalf of the Chinese gouvernement makes no sense whatsoever. Why launch a bioweapon in your own country, then do not handle the outbreak well (after all you "knew" about it beforehand in this scenario) and risk massive economic damage due to lockdowns? 

1)  Because no strong "speak our language or go away" in Germany, I believe everyone communicate in English then. Similarly there would no problem in communication if all of the scientists using English, but not mixed both. Unless Chinese elite schools teaching English for STEM, otherwise competition to top universities are very touch and no chance to start the STEM in English and do the test in Chinese  before Universities.

Case study: Malaysia schools and Uni was using English for STEM. Around 2009 they switched back to their native language, Malay (I didn't know this). They paid a high price economically and now want to get back to English for STEM, and parents want never to switch back to native language for STEM again. I think they try to minimize the language switching as well. If you learned STEM by English, the test would be English

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/02/03/parent-group-and-educators-keen-on-reinstating-english-for-stem-but-fears-b/1833886

2)

I think it is from a lab. It needs many cycles to mutate to this level from the previous one without a human intervention.

Quote

When the protein sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding site was analyzed, an interesting result was found. While SARS-CoV-2 is overall more similar to bat coronaviruses, the receptor binding site was more similar to SARS-CoV.

https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-vs-sars#receptor-binding

I agree China wouldn't release it in purpose but some accidental leak. But instead of enduring the damages alone, which will make China economy lack behind, CCP decided to let the world  have a taste of the virus and seemed planing to use low dead numbers to persuade their people and the world that CCP is an advance control system compares to Western Democracy.

I don't think the Wuhan lock down has much effect like Chinese and WHO claimed. It was too late and labors left the city for in Chinese New Year anyway. I guessed the lock down order had leaked out few days before it started. At first the protocol checking was similar to SARS, depended on thermometers which were not efficient. 

I didn't really believe this map but now I see it is quite accurate with current situation.

https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/terrifying-new-map-reveals-virus-reach/3941325/

Too many people died and they wouldn't have a economy function normally if they didn't do the lock down. If a few people died in a factory, then none would go to work. Wuhan got the worst because they had a 40 000 families potluck.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/06/wuhan-neighbourhood-sees-infections-after-40000-families-gather-for-potluck

China is a black box now so we should wait for China GDP in Q2 to have more info... 

Funny that no countries in Europe blame their leaders at a level of Trump being attacked. I think China,  WHO, Trump, Mainstream, Governors all made misleading information in the past and no mainstream took any responsibility. So they can be wrong but others can't.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by SUZNV

[Richard D + 86]

History repeats itself. France and an assortment of countries started the Latin Monetary Union,in the nineteenth century. That common currency was plagued by rogue member states issuing dud coinage,which other member states then had to underwrite. The only change is that the dud currency is now issued electronically. Oh,and the numbers are trillions rather than millions.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:03 PM, Marcin2 said:

I am analyzing them from the point of view of European interests and Chinese goal of becoming developed country.

For all of us the mere perspective of living in a country without free speech or the right to vote seems to be a nightmare.

And I Personally know that it is a nightmare cause I lived in both types: communist and democracy.

But the fact that Chinese live in their particular dictatorship system does not change the fact that they are smart.

They are crazy about giving the best education to their children.

In any metrics, on average their children are smarter than American, British or Polish children ( independent PISA testing)

They work hard and I have not found any scenario under which they would not become developed  country in 20 years ( bar some alien invasion).

Even that they may not like CCP , they love their country and have smart government and most of all work hard.

 

I cannot agree with the idea that China is a developing country. The Developed part of China includes most of the population and the largest manufacturing sector in the world. It is able to accomplish almost any technological tasks, especially since it is adept at copying what the West invents. China has a great cultural history and many minorities, although they are suppressed by the Han majority. 

Please explain your view of China as a undeveloped country. To me, an undeveloped country has a lot of starving people with no health care or educational opportunities, electricity, machines, tools etc. 

It seems to me that China has worn the undeveloped nation tale to out. 

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/underdeveloped-country

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/underdeveloped-countries/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:20 PM, Marcin2 said:

True, but as you probably noticed 😀 i am analyzing China from the point of view of my pet questions: Would China become global hegemon, when and what would be Europe and US position then ?

CCP leadership is a weakness that would be a huge problem of China, but Unfortunately for us only AFTER they would become hegemonic country.

For technological , scientific development you need some level of civil liberties and personal safety from prosecution by the state.

My observation is that the bar is lower, much lower than the current level of personal liberties in China.

So in short dictatorship is not a problem for closing technology gap by China.

Whether CCP would be efficient in 2050 or China would need new system of government is not important for us.

For subordinate Roman provinces it was not important that Rome changed from Republic to Imperial  Principate and later Imperial Dominate. All the time these provinces were under Roman hegemony.

Not unimportant to those that had to live under the thumb of Rome. Your concept is very shallow indeed!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/21/2020 at 5:39 AM, Walter Faber said:

To give some European/German view:
1) EU is not perfect and needs some reforms but acting together is better than every state going alone. As everyone knows, as a big player you have more leverage in international negotiations (especially trade) than as a small participant. 
2) There is solidarity within the EU. Germany/France/Italy and more pay more to the common EU fund than they receive. That is generally accepted by the population in the giving countries. Moderately and strongly pro-EU parties control 87% of the seats in the German parliament. Naturally, there are discussions about the best way forward, but that is completely normal for every organisation and in the end there has usually been a compromise in the EU. 
3) There was and will be additional solidarity and help within the EU during the Corona crisis. The beginning was chaotic (as almost everywhere in the world, be it Asia, North America or Europe) but it is getting better. For example, Germany sent teams to Italy and treats patients from Italy and France. (https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/deshalb-hilft-deutschland-auslaendischen-covid-19-patienten,RvCrBGx, use auto translate). 
The measures by the ECB are also a sort of inter-European help as it generally benefits the weaker countries over the stronger countries.
The alleged lack of inter-European help in addition is overblown and instrumentated by (often right wing) populists in media and politics for their political agenda.  
4) IMO Europe helps almost every country, some more than others but all get their share. German industry can export more easily, Eastern Europe gets subventions for modernisation and can send workers to Western Europe where pay is better, and Southern Europe gets subvention an increased tourism due to common currency and less border restrictions and has easier access to capital markets for investment.
5) Being part of the EU does not equal giving up your national identity. You have to make compromises but that is life. On the other hand, it secures peace and encourages learning from each other.

You make many good points but conveniently overlook the issue that has fractured the EU. That is immigration from Islamic countries. People who are primarily not interested in becoming European except for living in Europe. First you lost Britain, France is a wreck Notre Dame is gone. Paris is burning on a frequent basis. Merkel and Macron are weak leaders who are elitist globalists who look down on their own middle classes much as our Democrat leaders are. The freedom of speech in Europe is rapidly being destroyed. All European conservatives notice these things and they notice the crushing bureaucracy of the E.U. Future elections will be interesting to watch. America is in a similar situation though, so our freedoms are also in danger. If the Democrats take over we will be in a similar situation right here. There are many Blue states that are governed much like Europe. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/21/2020 at 9:39 AM, El Nikko said:

 

340 million people is just one nation. The rest of the world is also reconsidering its relationship with China. The CCP virus has caused China to have the face of a plague. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:43 AM, Walter Faber said:

@SUZNV
1) I extrapolate from my experience here, I am a student (Bachelor, mathematics) from Germany and for my fellow students and me, it is quite natural to switch between German/English (even though I am not overly talented with foreign languages in general, Chinese<->English is more difficutl than German<->English of course). I expect other STEM subjects (which are the more strategically important, no offence to liberal arts intended here!) to be similar in this regard, although switching may be easier than average in mathematics due to its very formal and symbolic language.I have not yet participated in research, where things may or may not be more of challenge.
Liberal arts in general will likely suffer more from the language/culture barriers of course.
2) I agree that implementing "safe spaces" for apolitical sciences and free entrepreneurship is a challenge to autocratic systems, but I do not deem it impossible, rather more difficult to create and maintain than for a democracy. 
This being said, I believe there is not much disagreement here and otherwise I appreciate the examples [1].
3&4) Again, I appreciate the examples and explanations. [1]
Regarding ideology, I agree that China also covers this field, it appears to be more secondary. While the Soviet Union attempted to convert a country to its ideology, China attempts to convert it to a useful trading partner/source for raw materials.
"It is more subtle, but sustainable and potentially more effective." 
The underlying thinking is that wars between superpowers have become unwinnable due to weapons of mass destruction while military expeditions against smaller powers tend to be not worth the effort compared to writing off losses or exerting power through sanctions. Therefore, military power has declined in relative importance to economic and soft power, and it is the better choice to invest resources in economic developement/foreign investments/education&research instead of a strong military for global interventions (as the US does).
From my perception, the suggested strategy is more or less what China does.

[1] China (and in general Asia) is somewhat underrepresented in German public perception and media, so I i) have only superficial and probably prejudiced knowledge about the region and processes and ii) enjoy reading insights from with experience in this region.
I think many people imagine major Asian autocratic states as perfectly working machines populated by selfless people with ant-like work ethic who precisely execute the directives by the central gouvernement, which methodically plans the future of the country over the next hundred years. (Subconsciously, I am probably guilty of this too at times).

Informed people have few such illusions about the Chinese people. I find it hard to believe that Europeans are that out of touch, although their fake news is as bad, or worse than ours is. Anyone to the right of Merkel or Macron is called a right wing fanatic. The Chinese have had so much brave opposition from Formosa/Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Falun Gong, Chinese Muslims in concentration camps, persecution of Christians and other religions, medical people and other Chinese exposing the CCP virus. The Chinese are very brave and like freedom as much as anyone ever did. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/23/2020 at 12:33 PM, Floyd Looney said:

The EU has never and will never "look after" your interests. Why would America whims be the alternative? Does your country (or EU Province) have a functioning government? Why can't it "look after your interests"?

 

Hillary was never going to win, even the media knew she was a horrid candidate.

Trump was the strongest Republican candidate but was only attacked by the Deep State after he looked like a real threat. Any other candidate would have lost to Hillary. She had the entire establishment with her. She also won a majority of the votes. 

When you are up against the entire establishment, even a Joe Biden is a tough candidate to beat. They will do whatever possible to win including cheat, lie (which is normal for them), use legal warfare, etc. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 4/24/2020 at 6:56 AM, Tomasz said:

Every reasonable person knows that international organizations do not work in crisis situations.

In such a situation, the strength of the basic subject, i.e. national states, counts.

The Union made a mistake and I say it as a Pole that under geopolitical pressure of  the US it adopted too many Central and Eastern European countries too quickly into the European Union.

From this arise the problems of southern Europe which has ceased to be competitive with new members of the Union.

From this follows Brexit of Great Britain flooded with newcomers from new EU countries.

And unfortunately it is clearly seen that in Poland and Hungary democracy was imposed after 1989 without understanding its essence so  after some years it turns out that there and even in the Czech Republic the post-communist mentality still prevails.

It would be much better for the Union to come out if it were not in such a hurry with the mass and quick admission of new members, although the pressure to consolidate the profits resulting from the victory in the Cold War was certainly enormous.

So once again it is the fault of the US that “The Union made a mistake and I say it as a Pole that under geopolitical pressure of  the US it adopted too many Central and Eastern European countries too quickly into the European Union.”

Do you see the recurring them that it is the fault of the US that the EU was blindly accepting countries into it....which were obviously going to be a burden to the original EU.

You own your own mistakes!

[surrept33 + 609]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

You make many good points but conveniently overlook the issue that has fractured the EU. That is immigration from Islamic countries. People who are primarily not interested in becoming European except for living in Europe. First you lost Britain, France is a wreck Notre Dame is gone. Paris is burning on a frequent basis. Merkel and Macron are weak leaders who are elitist globalists who look down on their own middle classes much as our Democrat leaders are. The freedom of speech in Europe is rapidly being destroyed. All European conservatives notice these things and they notice the crushing bureaucracy of the E.U. Future elections will be interesting to watch. America is in a similar situation though, so our freedoms are also in danger. If the Democrats take over we will be in a similar situation right here. There are many Blue states that are governed much like Europe. 

At least in Britain, I think it was primarily the rapid expansion in Polish migration that spurred anti-immigration (and especially anti-EU) sentiment.

Since the 2004 EU Expansion:

[ronwagn + 6,290]

This is the first I have heard of the Polish being an issue. All I hear from the British is about Muslims and the "grooming" of underage British girls, knife, machete, and acid attacks especially in London with its Muslim Mayor. Those are the reasons for Brexit IMO. 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/24/england-knife-crime-hit-all-time-high-final-statistics-before-coronavirus-lockdown/

Do you recall the hordes of Muslims trying to invade through the Chunnel, and by small boat?

[surrept33 + 609]

25 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

This is the first I have heard of the Polish being an issue. All I hear from the British is about Muslims and the "grooming" of underage British girls, knife, machete, and acid attacks especially in London with its Muslim Mayor. Those are the reasons for Brexit IMO. 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/24/england-knife-crime-hit-all-time-high-final-statistics-before-coronavirus-lockdown/

Do you recall the hordes of Muslims trying to invade through the Chunnel, and by small boat?

I've heard of both cases, but I think the EU's freedom of movement became more of the red button issue up to Brexit because of the perceived effect on wages (especially at lower income levels) and social services in Britain.

The closest analog in the US would probably be illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America - if the border was completely open.

Not to say that the the grooming cases, various acts of terrorism, and the rush of syrian refugees weren't issues in Britian, but I think they were less relevant to Brexit and anti-EU sentiment.

[Walter Faber + 48]

@ronwagn
 

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Merkel and Macron are weak leaders who are elitist globalists who look down on their own middle classes

(emboldening by me)
Can't comment on Macron but that is definitely not the prevailing view of Merkel among Germans. She is blamed for being indecisive, having an alleged lack of long-term visions for the development of Germany and there is of course disagreement with detailed policies. But her "looking down" on the middles class is pretty much the last thing that would come to mind. She has a middle class background and middle class lifestyle. 
This being said, there are few, if any chancellors/presidents in the world who I would trade Merkel for at the moment.
 

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This is the first I have heard of the Polish being an issue. 

See here as one of many examples. I am not from Britain but from my impression Muslim immigration was secondary at most. Especially because the Muslim population in the UK mostly predates the EU 
https://www.ft.com/content/ee9f8ba0-3d08-11ea-b232-000f4477fbca
More important were economical questions, e.g. competition from Eastern Europe labour, and the UKs contribution to the EU budget.
 

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Anyone to the right of Merkel or Macron is called a right wing fanatic.

No, that is not the case. I have no idea where you get these ideas from. The CDU (Merkels party)/CSU (CDUs sister party in Bavaria) has many more conservative politicians who are not called "right wing fanatic" by the overwhelming majority of the population. 
The one truly right wing party that draws intense criticism is the AfD.

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The freedom of speech in Europe is rapidly being destroyed.

Again, not sure what you mean there. Granted, my experience is mostly limited to Germany, but I can go online or to the street and say pretty much whatever I want as long as I do not openly insult people (calling a politician imcompetent is completely fine, but there is no reason to call anyone "retarded asshole") or spread a clearly defined selection of national socialistic slogans or demands. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Walter Faber

[SUZNV + 1,197]

@Walter Faber

About the languages problem in science, I think we are both right. English has a German background and German has more complicated grammar so the switch between German to English is much different from East Asian language to English. I didn't consider that.

--------------

In the view of people who are against Globalization, Elitist Globalist has  2 forms: Left wing Socialist Parties in each country ally with Global Corps. Sounds crazy at first, but each covers the other weakness and share the same goal --> Globalization.

IMHO, politics is complicated but mainly the complicated triangle interactions between the powers of Corporation(s), Government(s) and The People. Basically it is always have a equilibrium point whether we like that position or not. We all struggle internally with greed (want more money, health, recognition )-fear(lose what we have)-freedom(so we can have choices) inside us, the People and maybe their will have the same struggle in member of Corporations / member of Governments. The total between the 3 always fixed so the more of 1 will give less in the other 2. Our political choice will be combination of 3. The total can increase or decrease overtime.  When we die it will be =0. Yes I may be crazy.

--------------------------

Below is purely my opinion about Merkel. Feel free to discuss your opinion about her. We can never learn from each other if we don't open for discuss or learn agree to disagree. 

I am originally interested in her as while jobless in the Great Recession right after graduation, I did some research about Natal Charts and German Famous people in the last 2 centuries always have a precise date time on Birth Certificate. So please don't think I bash or praise your leader personally. I don't care much about personal background or ideology or personality as it is their free will, kind of a from a historical view and I truly don't have any experience about Germany Political system or Religious, which is a strong part of culture.

Merkel Natal chart:

https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Merkel,_Angela

It is common knowledge that Merkel is very complicated person. She is very smart and have phD of science yet she came from a religious family. She was born in religious family  but she reveres Maxism and fluent Russian and has a political career in Free German Youth (FDJ). Back then religious didn't go well with Socialism. Not now though.

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 Free German Youth (FDJ), the official communist youth movement sponsored by the ruling Marxist–Leninist Socialist Unity Party of Germany.  According to her former colleagues, she openly propagated Marxism as the secretary for "Agitation and Propaganda".However, Merkel has denied this claim and stated that she was secretary for culture, which involved activities like obtaining theatre tickets and organising talks by visiting Soviet authors.^[42] She stated: "I can only rely on my memory, if something turns out to be different, I can live with that."^[41]

Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel

I don't think she was secretary for culture as she remembers. World Socialist Movement Marxism and later on Lenism historically advocated for:

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 Socialism is characterised as a stateless, propertyless, post-monetary economy based on calculation in kind, a free association of producers (workplace democracy) and free access to goods and services produced solely for use and not for exchange.

I don't think a ranking in that Socialism can advocate for culture. Culture depends heavily on different historical ways of living in the and religious ideologies, tradition. It is an obstacle to new World Socialist Movement ideology.

I don't think it is possible to have a middle class background in Socialism:

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“The internal enemy” of the proletarian Russian Revolution is constituted first and foremost by the lower middle classes

https://www.marxists.org/archive/kun-bela/1918/05/04.htm

Given her background of squatting in Mitte, I think of her as a scholar proletarian.

Yet she "switched size" fast when the Berlin wall collapse and rises to Chancellor. You need to have a solid long term motivation to deal with all that changes. With her, my guess would be power. No things wrong for a politician to pursuit power. Even Dictatorship may be a blessing like Lee Kwong Yiu for Singapore, let along in a Democracy Country. A wise politician on top won't discriminate between immigrants and native citizens. The higher population the higher power, as long as the immigrants hold German Cultures and Values. I think immigrants in the US should understand and do the same with US values (but keep your culture) instead of devalue it. 

One more evidence for her motivation is Power:

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Merkel criticised her former mentor publicly and advocated a fresh start for the party without him.

I don't know about  her mentor Helmut Kohl. Germany politics is sophisticated and mostly in German, so it is a black box to me to cross check with English sources so it is hard for me to understand much.

She did a good job with the health care system, proven in this Covid19 pandemic and leaded EU out of recession 2008. Germany can produce mass test productions fast I think because it doesn't depend on supply chain in China. It seems to need China investment only but keep the jobs inside EU. US was too dependent in China even for manufacturing.  But I think accepting 1 million refugees from a completely different culture is a big gambling, but will be regarded as a  top humanity if success. I don't think Euro can collapse yet. But more loads on Germany. Trust like American feel more loads on them about the world.

It's sad to see the Birthplace of Democracy Greece, and Birthplace  of Republic Italy to be in their current situations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by SUZNV

[RichieRich216 + 454]

I always thought it was a stupid idea! At end of day this pandemic has shown each Country displaying self interest.....

[Walter Faber + 48]

@SUZNV: Regarding Merkel: I have voted for her (or better her party and her local voting district candidate, you don't vote the chancellor directly). I am not an ardent supporter of her party/policies, but considered her and her party were the best option available at the time. What I respect about Merkel:
i) Her intelligence and analytical and critical thinking capability. You do not get a PhD in physics for nothing, especially considering that PhDs were even more rare back when she got hers considered to nowadays.
ii) Her calm, serious and balancing demeanour. She takes time to hear opinions of others and to consider things. She is the antidote to the trope of "intuitive leader with big ego, who considers himself an expert of anything and needs to let everyone know that (best example for this kind is a certain president...)". 
iii) Personal integrity. She surely had to engage in powerplay and deal-making during her political career, but I can't recall accusations of taking advantage of the office for personal gain. Merkel has been attacked countless times by political opponents but never for her personal conduct or personal scandals. 
 

Now to your points:

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German Famous people in the last 2 centuries always have a precise date time on Birth Certificate

You underestimate the ferocity of German bureaucracy, EVERYONE has been precisely registered over the last three centuries 😂
Okay, that probably is a bit exaggerated.

Regarding Merkel being a communist/socialist, it may have been the case during the first decades of her life, and it is documented on paper that she was member of different organisations. However
i) People can change their mind. Nothing wrong with that.
ii) She was not member of the party SED at that time.
iii) If you wanted to achieve something in the GDR, you had to become part of some organisations or do some ideological work. It is actually remarkable that she managed to stay out of the SED-party given her achieved level of education. Btw., her PhD thesis was "summa cum laude" (mark 1, best mark), the ideological work she had to do as well for her PhD  certificate was rated with "rite" (mark 5, just passed) [1]
iv) She joined the conservative CDU after the GDR collapsed. If she had been a communist/socialist, she would have joined the party "The Linke".
(https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel) Sorry for German sources, they are often more comprehensive.

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With her, my guess would be power.

She for sure is motivated by power on a personal level, unsurprising for a politician. 

Quote

Merkel criticised her former mentor publicly and advocated a fresh start for the party without him.

Her Mentor was Helmut Kohl, Chancellor for 16 years at that time. Public opinion had turned against him, there was a scandal regarding party financing (which is regulated in Germany) etc. So while I understand that this sounds like backstabbing, she was simply right at this point. Kohl in a prominent role would have been a burden for the party. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU_donations_scandal)

Quote

But I think accepting 1 million refugees from a completely different culture is a big gambling, but will be regarded as a  top humanity if success.

From a political point of view, it was a bold and risky decision of her as this could well have ended her political career at the next election. But she gained respect from many (including me) for making this somewhat selfless (on a personal level) decision.
Accepting the refugees was and is considered a moral duty by many in Germany, and I agree there. Due to our terrible past, there is collectively felt pressure to do "everything right" this time.
This being said, I do not think that the integration of the refugees went optimal. At the beginning, criticism of the refugees or the process of integration was scorned by many politicians and most of the media, and Germany probably should have applied more pressure to learn the language and adapt. 
Personally, I believe that Germany should become a country of immigration under the condition that this process is well managed. It can become a win-win situation, Germany has low birth rates and needs some way to replenish its population, German companies need more workers, and on the other hand we have good institutions/infrastructure/safety, what not make that accessible to a bigger share of the world's population.

[1] My grandfather was manager at a small foundry, and he had to join the people's militia and become member of the party SED for this despite being rather conservative.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Walter Faber

[Marcin2 + 725]

On 4/25/2020 at 5:24 AM, surrept33 said:

At least in Britain, I think it was primarily the rapid expansion in Polish migration that spurred anti-immigration (and especially anti-EU) sentiment.

Since the 2004 EU Expansion:

The main difference is that Poles integrate fast with British society. Muslims integrate mainly with British social security pay outs.