Wombat + 1,028 AV April 24, 2020 15 hours ago, 0R0 said: That is not exactly how I read that economic argument. Their labor rates have been growing as the net rate of supply of labor keeps shrinking It is now half of what it was on the intake of young people and is declining with retirements. The currency is under pressure from capital flight. To an investor with options of Beijing prime real estate producing no real rent and going for 40-47 X income, the world with prime real estate of 10-20 X income looks like a terrific bargain. The pressure is on the currency to go down, not up. It is the savings rate that determines relative prices. That is what then drives exports. The Chinese demographics drive this because of the 1 child policy, people don't have progeny to fall back on, so they have to save more for retirement. In China's case, some of the exports are driven by capital flight. Where net proceeds never repatriate and private reinvestment falls. China labor force entry age population 20-24, retirement age group 50 -55 women + 60-65 men, net additions 2010 130 mil , 68 mil , 62 mil 2015 106 mil . 89 mil, 17 mil 2020 78 mil , 98 mil, -20 mil 2025 74 mil , 84 mil , -10 mil They are getting old. By 2030 the median age will be 50. As bad as E Europe and S. Europe at their worst. The problem with getting old is that you have falling demand for goods. You have rising demand for medical and social services. These are labor intensive. And as the retirees accumulate, their savings flows and investments disappear. The recent years have seen a drastic shift from people buying a 1st home to people buying a 2nd or 3rd apartment. People are buying for speculation and for the grandkid's generation. This is a sign of market saturation. The migrant industrial labor population that lives in Dorms throughout the industrial cities of the coast 290 mil last year. However, while the vast majority were migrating to the Eastern manufacturing hubs, more of them are migrating within their Western and Central provinces, so that the migrant workers are only 55% at the coasts vs. 80% in 2010. Or 160 mil, vs. 190 mil in 2010 (down 15%). Avg. age is now over 35 for coastal migrants vs. 45 for inland migrants. Average ages are up 6 years from about 29 and 39 respectively. Most of the current generation will stop going to coastal dorm factories as they get older. But the big deal is the declining inflow of young workers. Their pay is about $8000 per year in manufacturing and logistics. The under 30 migrant population in the coastal region was 86 mil in 2010, 44 mil last year. That is why business folks have been jumping ship from China for some years. Flextronics will have a problem staffing its factories with dorm dwellers. Within 5 years they may have a problem producing for export there at all, only producing for local markets in China will be possible. https://clb.org.hk/content/migrant-workers-and-their-children That is why I don't think your explanation holds water any longer. It was true into 2010. It was relatively correct to 2015, it is wrong today. It will be entirely misleading going forward. Once again, u show that u do not have a clue what you are talking about. For a start, 6 years ago, I told the Chinese to drop their 1 child policy in favour of a 2 child policy, which they did immediately. Their replacement rate now 1.8, compared to 1.3 in USA. Don't confuse HK with mainland China! As an Australian, I can tell u that the price of iron ore is holding above $80, despite the fact we flogging twice the volume to them as 5 years ago. That means their economy is powering ahead, not stagnating like the USA or Europe? Why do u think they building another 160 coal-fired power plants? Just 4 the fun of it? The fact their currency falling just makes them more competitive? C'mon Oro, get ur head outta ur arse? You are just as oblivious to the threat that China poses as any American? U must be some kinda globalist elitist like Biden, coz you outta touch with the 90% of Americans that DO understand the Chinese threat??? Too much CNN???? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV April 24, 2020 On 4/23/2020 at 5:50 PM, Rob Plant said: Douglas I believe Steelers Wheel said it best in their infamous song (see lyrics below) 😂 Stuck In The Middle With You Stealers Wheel Well I don't know why I came here tonight,I got the feeling that something ain't right,I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,Clowns to the left of me,Jokers to the right, here I am,Stuck in the middle with you Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,And I'm wondering what it is I should do,It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,Here I am, stuck in the middle with you Well you started out with nothing,And you're proud that you're a self made man,And your friends, they all come crawlin,Slap you on the back and say,Please, please Trying to make some sense of it all,But I can see that it makes no sense at all,Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,'Cause I don't think that I can take anymoreClowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,Here I am, stuck in the middle with you Well you started out with nothing,And you're proud that you're a self made man,And your friends, they all come crawlin,Slap you on the back and say,Please, please Well I don't know why I came here tonight,I got the feeling that something ain't right,I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,Clowns to the left of me,Jokers to the right, here I am,Stuck in the middle with you,Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,Stuck in the middle with you, here I am stuck in the middle with you You can decide who are the "jokers" and "clowns"! Ah, u finally got my joke!!!! Now watch Reservoir Dogs to see what happens to the Jokers and Clowns? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 April 26, 2020 On 4/21/2020 at 10:11 PM, 0R0 said: Sweden just shut down China's Confucius institutes in their academic institutions. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swedes-axe-china-backed-confucius-school-scheme-as-relations-sour-7n56ld2v3 Gothenburg axes twin city agreement with Shanghai as Sweden closes all Confucius Institutes Sweden’s second-largest city has ended its twin-city agreement with Shanghai, according to local media. The move comes as the Scandanavian country closed all of China’s state-run language and cultural institutes. Sweden’s Gothenburg mayor Axel Josefson told public broadcaster Radio Sweden that there has not been much exchange between the two cities: “Exchange in the past two to three years has been minimal,” he said. “And considering the times we are in, we don’t find it suitable to extend the twin-city agreement.” 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 April 26, 2020 On 4/24/2020 at 7:31 AM, Wombat said: Once again, u show that u do not have a clue what you are talking about. For a start, 6 years ago, I told the Chinese to drop their 1 child policy in favour of a 2 child policy, which they did immediately. Their replacement rate now 1.8, compared to 1.3 in USA. Don't confuse HK with mainland China! As an Australian, I can tell u that the price of iron ore is holding above $80, despite the fact we flogging twice the volume to them as 5 years ago. That means their economy is powering ahead, not stagnating like the USA or Europe? Why do u think they building another 160 coal-fired power plants? Just 4 the fun of it? The fact their currency falling just makes them more competitive? C'mon Oro, get ur head outta ur arse? You are just as oblivious to the threat that China poses as any American? U must be some kinda globalist elitist like Biden, coz you outta touch with the 90% of Americans that DO understand the Chinese threat??? Too much CNN???? I do understand the China threat. It is visible in their actions. It has obvious motivation. My issue is means strategy timing and targets. Their main concerns so far have been S China Sea resources and down to Australia. So that looks like the scope. They would need to be able to do something beyond blowing US navy ships out of the water. Which as of now and short term forecasts they are not trying. On the means side, I don't see their capacity to hold ground once retaliation takes out their ships and their missile barrage does less damage than they think it will. I also don't see how they can fight a war that immediately blockades their food and energy supplies (meaning a drop in domestic yields of 2/3 since they can't both produce their agrichems and run a war and maintain any production without external oil - at least one of them would have to be given up). I don't know what is available on the US and AU JP side for a direct instantaneous strike on the China Navy to take it out at once while it is stuck to the US fleet like glue. That is quite enough for the US Australia Japan to join into a circumstance that would press China to shoot. But I thin there is a need for locals to join in. Particularly Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand and most of all Indonesia and Philippines. I would presume it would start with a blockade of a China exploration vessel, and blowing off a trespassing fishing vessel trying to ram a blockade. I don't know how much cheap oil they are managing to store up, but despite the attempt, they don't seem to have the storage set up. Then the issue of Russian supplies comes in. If the Saudis are flooding Russian target markets as successfully as they appear to be, then Russia is going to lose production for a decade, because unlike shale, it can't be turned on and off at will, and unlike Western owned oil wells, the recovery will not be done within 2 years. About 1/2 of Russia's oil production is at risk of permanent damage upon shutdown, and much of the rest is going to need to wait for permafrost to have access to it. It is similar to the oil production shutdowns of the late 1980s that caused the Soviet system to implode. The damage to oil production took 15 years to recover. That should be done by June, depending on actual results of the price blockade of Russian oil exports, and get worse further on. So by end 2020 Russia will no longer be a substantial supplier to China other than what they get by pipeline and chose to keep flowing despite better offers from Saudi. Their tea pot refiners will just take the Saudi under-bid. Without that oil, particularly if Russia's internal supply is shut down as well because of their CV19 shutdown, they will not have enough secure supply to do a war of any substance. I presume that the Saudi deal with Trump is about that. In preparation for a possible China attack, just using the opportunity presented to bring damage to China's strategic prospects. The question remains if the US+AU+JP will be ready for a Chinese lash out taking place as soon as they see competing production to their key strategic monopolies go online, and then their mines and ports in Africa S. America and S Asia etc. get nationalized in a reparations scheme. The replacement rate is not 1.8. They had a 2 year spurt of child births after suspension of the 1 child policy and then it died down. Fewer Women want children altogether in recent poling, fewer yet want more than one. The excess of males continues. But there is the usual problem that provincial data is being padded with fake births. It is estimated that recent years are counting as many as 2 million live births that didn't happen. The suspicion came about when reported births never showed up in school enrollments, as if 1 mil of the 2010 cohort died before reaching the age of 5, which we know they didn't. The discrepancy became bigger beginning at 2015 when it became a "concern" for the CCP, so the stats officials figured they should show more births, win brownie points or at least save face. The iron ore imports go into those electric plants. and to BRI projects, which I was going to post about so here is the URL https://www.nairobiminibloggers.com/tanzania-president-cancels-10billion-chinese-loan-refers-to-the-terms-and-conditions-as-one-that-can-only-be-accepted-by-drunkard-person/ The bottom line is that the repudiation of the BRI debt and Chinese claims to the projects is being rejected. The Tanzanian head of state, John Magufuli canceled Chinese loan of ten billion US dollar (US$10billion) agreement signed by his predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete with Chinese investors to construct a port at Mbegani creek in Bagamoyo, just north of Da es Salaam. Refers to the Terms and Conditions As One That Can Only be Accepted by Drunkard Person. Aside Tanzania, it could be remembered that, the Julius Maada Bio lead administration in Sierra Leon equally suspended a $400 million airport construction agreement in 2018. He was quoted to have said that: “it is uneconomical to proceed with the construction of the new airport when the existing one is grossly underutilized”. Additionally, there have been several other resistances to Chinese backed contracts in Africa. The cancellation of a USD2 billion coal plant contract in Kenya, among few others, are typical examples of the growing awareness. ================================= Back to the topic at hand. Steel production is up as of 2018 If you look at the product categories showing substantial growth, they are related to pipeline components in welded tube and continuous tube and circular sections, which are likely going to Russia and other pipeline projects. That is part of their continuing cementing of oil supplies from Russia, and BRI related oil pipelines. +5 Mton and construction rod +12 Mton which is still part of the 2nd and 3rd home purchases in China's real estate bubble. Other items are not changed that much. None of that indicates economic expansion other than political energy economics with Russia and the continuing real estate boom, which has just managed last year to get Beijing from 92% occupancy to 86%. Related indicators Last Previous Frequency Range CN: Steel: Production: Large Section (Ton th) 15,868.700 2019 16,164.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Medium Plate (Ton th) 40,412.200 2019 38,116.800 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Other (Ton th) 27,468.000 2019 25,533.200 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail (Ton th) 5,199.400 2019 4,865.000 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Heavy (Ton th) 4,050.400 2019 3,772.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Light (Ton th) 710.800 2019 760.100 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Refractory Brick (Ton th) 23,452.200 2018 22,925.400 2017 Yearly 1980 - 2018 Updated on 2019-12-20 CN: Steel: Production: Seamless Tube (Ton th) 27,983.800 2019 24,828.700 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Steel Product (Ton th) 1,204,774.200 2019 1,105,516.500 2018 Yearly 1980 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Ultra Heavy Plate (Ton th) 8,598.700 2019 8,178.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Weded Tube (Ton th) 56,191.700 2019 48,372.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Wire Rod (Ton th) 156,820.000 2019 144,488.300 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV April 26, 2020 53 minutes ago, 0R0 said: I do understand the China threat. It is visible in their actions. It has obvious motivation. My issue is means strategy timing and targets. Their main concerns so far have been S China Sea resources and down to Australia. So that looks like the scope. They would need to be able to do something beyond blowing US navy ships out of the water. Which as of now and short term forecasts they are not trying. On the means side, I don't see their capacity to hold ground once retaliation takes out their ships and their missile barrage does less damage than they think it will. I also don't see how they can fight a war that immediately blockades their food and energy supplies (meaning a drop in domestic yields of 2/3 since they can't both produce their agrichems and run a war and maintain any production without external oil - at least one of them would have to be given up). I don't know what is available on the US and AU JP side for a direct instantaneous strike on the China Navy to take it out at once while it is stuck to the US fleet like glue. That is quite enough for the US Australia Japan to join into a circumstance that would press China to shoot. But I thin there is a need for locals to join in. Particularly Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand and most of all Indonesia and Philippines. I would presume it would start with a blockade of a China exploration vessel, and blowing off a trespassing fishing vessel trying to ram a blockade. I don't know how much cheap oil they are managing to store up, but despite the attempt, they don't seem to have the storage set up. Then the issue of Russian supplies comes in. If the Saudis are flooding Russian target markets as successfully as they appear to be, then Russia is going to lose production for a decade, because unlike shale, it can't be turned on and off at will, and unlike Western owned oil wells, the recovery will not be done within 2 years. About 1/2 of Russia's oil production is at risk of permanent damage upon shutdown, and much of the rest is going to need to wait for permafrost to have access to it. It is similar to the oil production shutdowns of the late 1980s that caused the Soviet system to implode. The damage to oil production took 15 years to recover. That should be done by June, depending on actual results of the price blockade of Russian oil exports, and get worse further on. So by end 2020 Russia will no longer be a substantial supplier to China other than what they get by pipeline and chose to keep flowing despite better offers from Saudi. Their tea pot refiners will just take the Saudi under-bid. Without that oil, particularly if Russia's internal supply is shut down as well because of their CV19 shutdown, they will not have enough secure supply to do a war of any substance. I presume that the Saudi deal with Trump is about that. In preparation for a possible China attack, just using the opportunity presented to bring damage to China's strategic prospects. The question remains if the US+AU+JP will be ready for a Chinese lash out taking place as soon as they see competing production to their key strategic monopolies go online, and then their mines and ports in Africa S. America and S Asia etc. get nationalized in a reparations scheme. The replacement rate is not 1.8. They had a 2 year spurt of child births after suspension of the 1 child policy and then it died down. Fewer Women want children altogether in recent poling, fewer yet want more than one. The excess of males continues. But there is the usual problem that provincial data is being padded with fake births. It is estimated that recent years are counting as many as 2 million live births that didn't happen. The suspicion came about when reported births never showed up in school enrollments, as if 1 mil of the 2010 cohort died before reaching the age of 5, which we know they didn't. The discrepancy became bigger beginning at 2015 when it became a "concern" for the CCP, so the stats officials figured they should show more births, win brownie points or at least save face. The iron ore imports go into those electric plants. and to BRI projects, which I was going to post about so here is the URL https://www.nairobiminibloggers.com/tanzania-president-cancels-10billion-chinese-loan-refers-to-the-terms-and-conditions-as-one-that-can-only-be-accepted-by-drunkard-person/ The bottom line is that the repudiation of the BRI debt and Chinese claims to the projects is being rejected. The Tanzanian head of state, John Magufuli canceled Chinese loan of ten billion US dollar (US$10billion) agreement signed by his predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete with Chinese investors to construct a port at Mbegani creek in Bagamoyo, just north of Da es Salaam. Refers to the Terms and Conditions As One That Can Only be Accepted by Drunkard Person. Aside Tanzania, it could be remembered that, the Julius Maada Bio lead administration in Sierra Leon equally suspended a $400 million airport construction agreement in 2018. He was quoted to have said that: “it is uneconomical to proceed with the construction of the new airport when the existing one is grossly underutilized”. Additionally, there have been several other resistances to Chinese backed contracts in Africa. The cancellation of a USD2 billion coal plant contract in Kenya, among few others, are typical examples of the growing awareness. ================================= Back to the topic at hand. Steel production is up as of 2018 If you look at the product categories showing substantial growth, they are related to pipeline components in welded tube and continuous tube and circular sections, which are likely going to Russia and other pipeline projects. That is part of their continuing cementing of oil supplies from Russia, and BRI related oil pipelines. +5 Mton and construction rod +12 Mton which is still part of the 2nd and 3rd home purchases in China's real estate bubble. Other items are not changed that much. None of that indicates economic expansion other than political energy economics with Russia and the continuing real estate boom, which has just managed last year to get Beijing from 92% occupancy to 86%. Related indicators Last Previous Frequency Range CN: Steel: Production: Large Section (Ton th) 15,868.700 2019 16,164.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Medium Plate (Ton th) 40,412.200 2019 38,116.800 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Other (Ton th) 27,468.000 2019 25,533.200 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail (Ton th) 5,199.400 2019 4,865.000 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Heavy (Ton th) 4,050.400 2019 3,772.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Light (Ton th) 710.800 2019 760.100 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Refractory Brick (Ton th) 23,452.200 2018 22,925.400 2017 Yearly 1980 - 2018 Updated on 2019-12-20 CN: Steel: Production: Seamless Tube (Ton th) 27,983.800 2019 24,828.700 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Steel Product (Ton th) 1,204,774.200 2019 1,105,516.500 2018 Yearly 1980 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Ultra Heavy Plate (Ton th) 8,598.700 2019 8,178.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Weded Tube (Ton th) 56,191.700 2019 48,372.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Wire Rod (Ton th) 156,820.000 2019 144,488.300 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 Thankyou for the interesting pop'n and steel stats. While I agree with much of what you say, esp concerning Russian situation, I think you over-estimate Chinese reliance on imported oil. I know they are worlds largest importer at the moment, but that changing very rapidly. Tesla selling like hot cakes in China at the moment, and they will steal Tesla battery tech soon. Have already stolen their robot-car tech. I think 50% of car sales in China will be EV within just 5 years. Their Navy will double in that time, and number of subs will far outweigh US, Aus, Japan combined. Then there is N Korean subs, plus Russian ones. I don't think they would have any trouble protecting their sea lanes. Then there is "coal-to-oil". And what about the rare earth metals we need for our missiles but cannot get our hands on for several years? I would feel a lot more comfortable if Australia and Japan committed to buying large numbers of autonomous subs from US, along with your own Navy. I have been lobbying Aust govt on this front for 12 months now, to no avail. As for food, they much more self-sufficient than u think. They stockpile everything. When it comes to motive, I strongly disagree that their motivation is just regional. It is not just about Taiwan and regional resources. It is about "saving face". In their eyes, the only way they can end the "humiliation", is to destroy American power for once and for all. They have time on their side, we do not? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strangelovesurfing + 737 JD April 27, 2020 On 4/25/2020 at 10:53 PM, 0R0 said: I do understand the China threat. It is visible in their actions. It has obvious motivation. My issue is means strategy timing and targets. Their main concerns so far have been S China Sea resources and down to Australia. So that looks like the scope. They would need to be able to do something beyond blowing US navy ships out of the water. Which as of now and short term forecasts they are not trying. On the means side, I don't see their capacity to hold ground once retaliation takes out their ships and their missile barrage does less damage than they think it will. I also don't see how they can fight a war that immediately blockades their food and energy supplies (meaning a drop in domestic yields of 2/3 since they can't both produce their agrichems and run a war and maintain any production without external oil - at least one of them would have to be given up). I don't know what is available on the US and AU JP side for a direct instantaneous strike on the China Navy to take it out at once while it is stuck to the US fleet like glue. That is quite enough for the US Australia Japan to join into a circumstance that would press China to shoot. But I thin there is a need for locals to join in. Particularly Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand and most of all Indonesia and Philippines. I would presume it would start with a blockade of a China exploration vessel, and blowing off a trespassing fishing vessel trying to ram a blockade. I don't know how much cheap oil they are managing to store up, but despite the attempt, they don't seem to have the storage set up. Then the issue of Russian supplies comes in. If the Saudis are flooding Russian target markets as successfully as they appear to be, then Russia is going to lose production for a decade, because unlike shale, it can't be turned on and off at will, and unlike Western owned oil wells, the recovery will not be done within 2 years. About 1/2 of Russia's oil production is at risk of permanent damage upon shutdown, and much of the rest is going to need to wait for permafrost to have access to it. It is similar to the oil production shutdowns of the late 1980s that caused the Soviet system to implode. The damage to oil production took 15 years to recover. That should be done by June, depending on actual results of the price blockade of Russian oil exports, and get worse further on. So by end 2020 Russia will no longer be a substantial supplier to China other than what they get by pipeline and chose to keep flowing despite better offers from Saudi. Their tea pot refiners will just take the Saudi under-bid. Without that oil, particularly if Russia's internal supply is shut down as well because of their CV19 shutdown, they will not have enough secure supply to do a war of any substance. I presume that the Saudi deal with Trump is about that. In preparation for a possible China attack, just using the opportunity presented to bring damage to China's strategic prospects. The question remains if the US+AU+JP will be ready for a Chinese lash out taking place as soon as they see competing production to their key strategic monopolies go online, and then their mines and ports in Africa S. America and S Asia etc. get nationalized in a reparations scheme. The replacement rate is not 1.8. They had a 2 year spurt of child births after suspension of the 1 child policy and then it died down. Fewer Women want children altogether in recent poling, fewer yet want more than one. The excess of males continues. But there is the usual problem that provincial data is being padded with fake births. It is estimated that recent years are counting as many as 2 million live births that didn't happen. The suspicion came about when reported births never showed up in school enrollments, as if 1 mil of the 2010 cohort died before reaching the age of 5, which we know they didn't. The discrepancy became bigger beginning at 2015 when it became a "concern" for the CCP, so the stats officials figured they should show more births, win brownie points or at least save face. The iron ore imports go into those electric plants. and to BRI projects, which I was going to post about so here is the URL https://www.nairobiminibloggers.com/tanzania-president-cancels-10billion-chinese-loan-refers-to-the-terms-and-conditions-as-one-that-can-only-be-accepted-by-drunkard-person/ The bottom line is that the repudiation of the BRI debt and Chinese claims to the projects is being rejected. The Tanzanian head of state, John Magufuli canceled Chinese loan of ten billion US dollar (US$10billion) agreement signed by his predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete with Chinese investors to construct a port at Mbegani creek in Bagamoyo, just north of Da es Salaam. Refers to the Terms and Conditions As One That Can Only be Accepted by Drunkard Person. Aside Tanzania, it could be remembered that, the Julius Maada Bio lead administration in Sierra Leon equally suspended a $400 million airport construction agreement in 2018. He was quoted to have said that: “it is uneconomical to proceed with the construction of the new airport when the existing one is grossly underutilized”. Additionally, there have been several other resistances to Chinese backed contracts in Africa. The cancellation of a USD2 billion coal plant contract in Kenya, among few others, are typical examples of the growing awareness. ================================= Back to the topic at hand. Steel production is up as of 2018 If you look at the product categories showing substantial growth, they are related to pipeline components in welded tube and continuous tube and circular sections, which are likely going to Russia and other pipeline projects. That is part of their continuing cementing of oil supplies from Russia, and BRI related oil pipelines. +5 Mton and construction rod +12 Mton which is still part of the 2nd and 3rd home purchases in China's real estate bubble. Other items are not changed that much. None of that indicates economic expansion other than political energy economics with Russia and the continuing real estate boom, which has just managed last year to get Beijing from 92% occupancy to 86%. Related indicators Last Previous Frequency Range CN: Steel: Production: Large Section (Ton th) 15,868.700 2019 16,164.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Medium Plate (Ton th) 40,412.200 2019 38,116.800 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Other (Ton th) 27,468.000 2019 25,533.200 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail (Ton th) 5,199.400 2019 4,865.000 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Heavy (Ton th) 4,050.400 2019 3,772.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Rail: Light (Ton th) 710.800 2019 760.100 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Refractory Brick (Ton th) 23,452.200 2018 22,925.400 2017 Yearly 1980 - 2018 Updated on 2019-12-20 CN: Steel: Production: Seamless Tube (Ton th) 27,983.800 2019 24,828.700 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Steel Product (Ton th) 1,204,774.200 2019 1,105,516.500 2018 Yearly 1980 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Ultra Heavy Plate (Ton th) 8,598.700 2019 8,178.900 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Weded Tube (Ton th) 56,191.700 2019 48,372.400 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 CN: Steel: Production: Wire Rod (Ton th) 156,820.000 2019 144,488.300 2018 Yearly 1995 - 2019 Updated on 2020-02-04 On 4/26/2020 at 12:11 AM, Wombat said: Thankyou for the interesting pop'n and steel stats. While I agree with much of what you say, esp concerning Russian situation, I think you over-estimate Chinese reliance on imported oil. I know they are worlds largest importer at the moment, but that changing very rapidly. Tesla selling like hot cakes in China at the moment, and they will steal Tesla battery tech soon. Have already stolen their robot-car tech. I think 50% of car sales in China will be EV within just 5 years. Their Navy will double in that time, and number of subs will far outweigh US, Aus, Japan combined. Then there is N Korean subs, plus Russian ones. I don't think they would have any trouble protecting their sea lanes. Then there is "coal-to-oil". And what about the rare earth metals we need for our missiles but cannot get our hands on for several years? I would feel a lot more comfortable if Australia and Japan committed to buying large numbers of autonomous subs from US, along with your own Navy. I have been lobbying Aust govt on this front for 12 months now, to no avail. As for food, they much more self-sufficient than u think. They stockpile everything. When it comes to motive, I strongly disagree that their motivation is just regional. It is not just about Taiwan and regional resources. It is about "saving face". In their eyes, the only way they can end the "humiliation", is to destroy American power for once and for all. They have time on their side, we do not? Not saying I'm a war cheerleader but the Japanese Navy SDF alone would sink the CCP's navy in short order. 100 LRASM's would end any blue water capability the CCP currently has. The CCP doesn't have anywhere near the targeting capabilities the US has with or without satellites. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD April 27, 2020 There will always be a threat, this is nothing new. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 April 27, 2020 On 4/26/2020 at 6:11 AM, Wombat said: Thankyou for the interesting pop'n and steel stats. While I agree with much of what you say, esp concerning Russian situation, I think you over-estimate Chinese reliance on imported oil. I know they are worlds largest importer at the moment, but that changing very rapidly. Tesla selling like hot cakes in China at the moment, and they will steal Tesla battery tech soon. Have already stolen their robot-car tech. I think 50% of car sales in China will be EV within just 5 years. Their Navy will double in that time, and number of subs will far outweigh US, Aus, Japan combined. Then there is N Korean subs, plus Russian ones. I don't think they would have any trouble protecting their sea lanes. Then there is "coal-to-oil". And what about the rare earth metals we need for our missiles but cannot get our hands on for several years? I would feel a lot more comfortable if Australia and Japan committed to buying large numbers of autonomous subs from US, along with your own Navy. I have been lobbying Aust govt on this front for 12 months now, to no avail. As for food, they much more self-sufficient than u think. They stockpile everything. When it comes to motive, I strongly disagree that their motivation is just regional. It is not just about Taiwan and regional resources. It is about "saving face". In their eyes, the only way they can end the "humiliation", is to destroy American power for once and for all. They have time on their side, we do not? I doubt that China can actually have maintained the level of stockpiling they had in the past, because their farm productivity has not budged in 6 years, while their population, though aged, has expanded while arable land has been covered by construction. On the military side, they definitely do enjoy robustly ample production capacity to build endless streams of submarines. On the convoy protection side, it is something entirely different. Submarines are fragile so only those with the best stealth abilities have a chance of survival in a sub vs sub world. They are not defensive, but offensive tools, in the traditional Chinese military attitude of matchsticks, that once deployed, the ships and subs are visible and easily targeted and have no real armor and redundancy to continue operations after a hit. And they are not effective in short range protection work needed to defend against piracy, which is the actual threat that made imperial navies necessary, and is an asymmetrical warfare. (Of course once you had imperial navvies then using them to pirate each other would be the obvious next step.) Subs do not efficiently carry large firepower and cover large areas. They have to be part of a group including at least one large defensive ship with ample firepower, armor, system redundancy and compartmentalization. They simply have not built those. Their lack of imperial experience shows strongly in this. If their goal is to do a first strike wipeout of the US navy, the retaliation would be a first strike complete nuclear destruction of China, That is not a rational goal, not that CCP leaders are versed in coming to such. The US has a very clear history of wiping out serious threats (Sovets, Iraq) and of total revenge on serious hits (keep in mind Pearl Harbor=Hiroshima and Nagasaki). The Chinese capacity to retaliate is on the same scale of UK, France, not Russian and the US. And their attack might not actually come close in effectiveness because of the layers of antiballistic missile capabilities. What is your view of the Submarine hunting and sub vs. sub capacity among the US, Germany, Japan, France? Submarine mines? As I pointed out, elsewhere, China is not economically healthy. Its repeatedly piling onto the same stimulus plans that had failed to produce follow through, but just burdened their economy with debt and threatened their public with massive losses later on and erected megalithic monuments to hubris and status quo. Having an excess of 30% to global demand in capacity in steels and many other industrial products forces you to eventually admit an error and shut some of it down so that what remains can for once in this decade produce a profit more than a third of the time without the government finagling means to buy the output and make something with it. The attempt to do so in steel ended up selectively shutting down private operations and leaving the lumbering low quality SOE steel producers to continue grinding the economy. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotone + 412 April 27, 2020 (edited) On 4/24/2020 at 7:31 PM, Wombat said: For a start, 6 years ago, I told the Chinese to drop their 1 child policy in favour of a 2 child policy, which they did immediately. Wow! You the man! I am very impressed with your powers of persuasion! Who did you have the conversation with? Xi Jinpeng? Edited April 28, 2020 by Hotone 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zardoz + 5 DP April 28, 2020 China is like the neighbors dog..all pretty and cute ..then he shits in your yard and leaves.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yoshiro Kamamura + 274 YK April 30, 2020 Always blame someone else, America, your great leader taught you well! Meanwhile, the rest of the world believes that the top global risk of 2020 is American politics: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-top-risk-in-2020-its-u-s-politics-geopolitical-analysts-say/ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV May 3, 2020 On 4/28/2020 at 9:51 AM, Hotone said: Wow! You the man! I am very impressed with your powers of persuasion! Who did you have the conversation with? Xi Jinpeng? No. Granpa Wen. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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