wti hits my $10 target, now to $28,we wont see $10 again

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So again though i dont trade oil at all and wont in the future. But I finally decided to crate an wti profile on my charts permanently, so i can  see its future progressions.

Here is an idea based on my charts.

Right now chart shows prices at !2.5, based on future oil prices, right now target is $28 with $9 Being the exit point for this long, should things go sour.

Fundamentally, lots of countries including us will build up their reserves at $12 even if they though prices could hit 5. Reason is their last major purchases where at 60s, so why not stock up at almost 90% discounts.

Besides oil bailout coming soon.

So this is a once in a lifetime opp to buy oil at these prices 12.5.

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

OK, so you are the Top Oil Trader and I am a total nobody.  Fair enough.  Meanwhile, there is zero consumption of the stuff, nobody is driving anywhere, the city streets are ghost towns, the ships are tied up at the piers, no airplanes are moving - who is burning the stuff? 

And there are still those VLCC supertankers from KSA steaming towards the USA, loaded with at least 40 million barrels of more stuff, all to dump into a system that has its storage tanks slopping oil out of the tops of those tanks.  And those Saudis are quite prepared to sell oil to anybody who even sneezes for any. At any price.  Figure three bucks. 

It looks to me that crude, specifically WTI, is going to be in single digits at best for many months to come.  Twelve bucks?  That would be nirvana. 

[Iwabalan + 1]

16 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

OK, so you are the Top Oil Trader and I am a total nobody.  Fair enough.  Meanwhile, there is zero consumption of the stuff, nobody is driving anywhere, the city streets are ghost towns, the ships are tied up at the piers, no airplanes are moving - who is burning the stuff? 

And there are still those VLCC supertankers from KSA steaming towards the USA, loaded with at least 40 million barrels of more stuff, all to dump into a system that has its storage tanks slopping oil out of the tops of those tanks.  And those Saudis are quite prepared to sell oil to anybody who even sneezes for any. At any price.  Figure three bucks. 

It looks to me that crude, specifically WTI, is going to be in single digits at best for many months to come.  Twelve bucks?  That would be nirvana. 

Jan . You are right. Oil gonna trade under single digit. Otherwise top 3 producers prepare to shut down the refineries for months. Can see the miracle. :)$$$

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well  when everyone is negative its time to buy, most analysts usually on wrong side of the fence. 2 years ago when oil was 76 and hedgefunds where saying oil would hit 100 and 250, what happend. collapsed to 40s. Now too, when everyone says single digits, wait and see. Look at the great crash, all the major  analysts and investment houses where bulls up to the date of the crash. Same happened in 2019 everyone was a bull in the stock markets, 2 years ago i said in a post here, that the end of the dow would be at 29969, so i was off by just 400 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow) is the index of the 30 top-performing U.S. companies. The highest closing record is 29,551.42 set on Feb. 12, 2020. 1 Investors were encouraged that the trade wars initiated by President Donald Trump were being resolved.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Top Oil Trader

[Oilman498 0]

10 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So again though i dont trade oil at all and wont in the future. But I finally decided to crate an wti profile on my charts permanently, so i can  see its future progressions.

Here is an idea based on my charts.

Right now chart shows prices at !2.5, based on future oil prices, right now target is $28 with $9 Being the exit point for this long, should things go sour.

Fundamentally, lots of countries including us will build up their reserves at $12 even if they though prices could hit 5. Reason is their last major purchases where at 60s, so why not stock up at almost 90% discounts.

Besides oil bailout coming soon.

So this is a once in a lifetime opp to buy oil at these prices 12.5.

 

By when do you see 28 hit, also the world is not in demand of oil right now. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

LIke i said you wont see $10 again, right now prices are at 15.5, yesterday when i posted wti was at 11.50.. $28 will be reached very soon, i cant predict the month, but sometime before August 2020

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

fundamentally there are many reasons why oil cant go below 10

The most important one is, when all the big analysts who do this for a job, always get it wrong, both when oil was falling off a cliff saying it would move higher, now when it fell off a cliff saying it would move lower, thats when it moves higher.

Federally also numerous reasons why it cant move lower.

Also if you understand futures there are reasons.

also the hedgefund that 2 years ago when oil shoot up to 76 said oil was going to 250, now that oil is tanking after losings 100s of millions in his fund, he is finally short.

and then lastly there are charts and forecasts which if you have the right tools, its easy to see. admittedly with the usual tools out there, either the financial tools or the plain jane charting tools, its really impossible to see.

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Well, you're true to your name in my books. If nothing else you make me feel better, and that's an important tool.

[Bob_W + 37]

Good Morning JJ,

Don't you think it will go to $0 again at the next roll-over?  Storage is going to be full for real in a couple of weeks.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Bob_W

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

fundamentally there are many reasons why oil can't go below 10

Um, no.  Just ... no.

< sigh >

Carry on.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

once the states and countries open up, soon, the demand for oil will skyrocket, consumers, airlines, transportation etc..etc..

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Besides it looks like a war is brewing up, Iran vs Us, that artificially will also prop up prices maybe above 70, but only if war happens.

[J.mo + 165]

You ever thought about trying your hand at horoscopes JJ...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont trade oil at all, only other much faster moving instruments, but its interesting for my to apply my theories to other instruments such as oil, which is the most volatile and see how i do. so far not too bad, price was 12.50 2 days ago, when i said it was a buy and now its almost 19. But thanks for the suggestion about trying my hand at .., unfortunately i dont carry a gypsy outfit, and i dont know what all those tarrot cards mean anyway. But having said that, once WTI goes above my 28 target, sometimes soon, way before august, it may go parabolic, fundamentally that would happen if a war is triggered, which based on my horoscope skills, one of the cards i turned over was the "death card", based on that i do see news about a war coming to a screen near you, likely this year. This will get shale back into full swing.

 

 

[Ironflimmer + 18]

16 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

fundamentally there are many reasons why oil cant go below 10

Output is almost 100mbpd at this time, rapidly reducing to 90 mbpd before May 1st. However, demand is only around 70 mbpd and storage worldwide is basically 97% full at this time.

Yes, when the lockdown eases and people start driving etc again, demand will rise, but it won't skyrocket, since people will maintain social distancing and refrain from going on holidays etc. China lifted its lockdown a while ago, and things are nowhere near speeding up as fast as you seem to wish.

So by end of June, we might be fortunate to have demand for oil of at least 80 mbdp, but output is still above 88 mbpd and storages are overflowing. Those owning/buying futures have nowhere to store the oil and price will come down in negative or single digits.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

By skyrocket i dont mean oil will go above 40..Yes it will fluctuate maybe in 40s 50s but once the war starts, all the shorts from 10 and 15 will need to cover quickly.

[Ironflimmer + 18]

I see what you mean, but there is something missing in this equation: Storage.

There is not enough room for oil being drilled at this time and that will result in a few more downs before output will have been reduced sufficiently and demand will pick up again.

[Tomaz Korosec + 3]

I am cautiously bulish on oil too, but demand wont skyrocket like others have said. And besides when demand kicks back in, there are full storages and 50 tankers full of oil waiting, which will again dampen the price.. And someone on SA posted amount of oil that is being pumped in US. it is still above 12mio if I am not mistaken. This means US is pumping and pumping because they still rather sell than shut down wells to cover fix costs.. Sure rigs are down, but this effect will show slowly. So no skyhigh prices any time soon. Hard to trade oil right now, because recovery is also priced in futures already. Middle of 2021 trading at 35$ which would correlate just a bit below where analiyst expect price to be. So again no way to take advantage of that. Only if you believe price will be significantly higher then you can buy futures 2 years out and pocket the difference.. Near term expirations are just a lottery.. Can be 20$ or can be 0$ or can be -40$ again at expiration if storages are full. You are saying oil cannot be 10$ where it clearly showed you a few days ago 10$ can be 50$ overvalued price..

So why the hell could june not expire below 10$ if may expired at -37$??  It is not like anyone believes price in the future will be 10$, but you cannot buy june contract for 12$ and sell it on december for 30$... 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

careful opening an account where you will be held responsible if price pass your stop assuming you have one, if the futures go against you, such as it did this month, your house could be held accountable assuming you went long and if dropped negative. Since i only prop trade, i am never personally responsible for any loss, no matter if they are infinite, the only way i would trade futures anyways. Most brokers hold you responsible for any losses besides your capital, which could be many times the value of your house. Lets say you are long 100 bitcoins from whomever and one day, that farming technique becomes obsolete or bankrupt, your 100 positions could drop from 7Mill to $50k, and say your  only invested 200k cash, you would have to come up with the rest. So dont take risk, unless you can handle losing your whole account and them some, or work  for a company where you are always protected, except you may get fired.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Why i see almost 98% of new traders get kicked out of the firms i trade first. First they dont see the trend any trend in any instrument. Second the follow the prices so when even when many times its against the trend, then get locked in and cant get out until they get a margin call. The best way is not to follow the rat race, but to find the trend, then wait for a great entry point, they always come if you wait.

For example 2 days ago in WTI when it hit 12.50 11 thats when the uptrend started. So im not saying its going straight to 75 but. Now for example you can see its at 17.5, I can presume there are billions of dollars in shorts with stops around 20,21,22, so those are easy targets to take out, and then for the shorts of the 30s level, of which many big positions where short. In other words shorts who think its over for oil, which is basically everyone with   few exceptions, will be wiped out again just like the longs where this month, why they see the trend but after the fact, way after the fact. So most shorts got in too late, and most longs got in too early, early enough to get wiped out.

so in short learn how to find trends, trade the trend, dont follow the rat race, down a rabbits hole, since most of the early longs from 15 and 20 from 2 weeks ago got wiped out.

The oil situation will turn for the better, why... too long to go into here, all the green deal people who are happy the oil industry is destroyed, will soon get upset with the higher oil prices coming to a gas station near you.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so here is the scenario. when oil was 12.5 i said we wont see 10 again, not at least this year. Then, I said we go to 28 by august based on charts, i should change that to 50. This is not to say oil will turn around for good, this will a temporary rise, for as long as a bottleneck happens in the oil supply, probably the last one, we will ever see, before oil drop again, into their lows or just above. Oil is now towering at 17, and by May should be above 20s.

However, oil fluctuates, so if you have no clue or if you are new, stay away, you  need experience lots of, more than the hedgefunds who have been known to lose 100s of millions making wrong bets on oil. Just look up worst hedgefunds in history.

But just in case you are a good oil trader, (havent seen one yet), there are cos looking for your skill, and  you could make lots of money.

 

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

12 once more, considering going long soon. still think it has about a 50 cent drop in it before turn around. This is not a bad move down since this is normal before it shoots up. Picking up up quite a few futures at 11.50. good luck.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Got in at 12.15 for 4 contracts, will get out if we reach 9, thats the stop, the target on this for me is between 28 and 50. Though i got in towards the bottom, I still see it dropping more today, which is ok, no man can predict the bottom of markets or the highs, you got to want to be a little bit humble. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so oil hit 12 or below wasnt watching all day, im long 4 at 12.15. My prediction for this week, not because im long, only the charts speaks volumes, is we will reach 18 this week.  And by Tuesday this week so that will be april 28 we should be above 14 at least. Sometime this year we should see 28 and then 50s. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well WTI now moving fast already hit 13.5 since the lows of 12. Like i said it should trade at least at 14 on Tuesday. The news today of the over storage, only removed the weak holders and let the big value players buys at prices of a lifetime once more.