wti hits my $10 target, now to $28,we wont see $10 again

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 4/22/2020 at 12:06 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

So this is a once in a lifetime opp to buy oil at these prices 12.5.

How long do you intend to hold onto this super tanker, as unless you're buying a tanker load of physical oil, your (Virtual future) lifetime offer is only good for a month.

[Bob_W + 37]

On 4/23/2020 at 8:54 AM, Bob_W said:

Good Morning JJ,

Don't you think it will go to $0 again at the next roll-over?  Storage is going to be full for real in a couple of weeks.

Looks like it's happening today, USO rolling over contracts into future months now instead of waiting for the last minute.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Largest-Oil-Fund-Is-Once-Again-Crashing-Crude-Markets.html

By rolling over early and spreading over a few days, will that prevent prices from going below $0.00?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 4/23/2020 at 3:29 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

LIke i said you wont see $10 again, right now prices are at 15.5, yesterday when i posted wti was at 11.50.. $28 will be reached very soon, i cant predict the month, but sometime before August 2020

Uh oh, I see a 10 handle.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Unless you're buying oil to store you can't even invest in this with futures because of freaking contango.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

you are right it did hit 10 and change, but technically thats not 10.00, besides my stop was at 9 just in case.

However, the truth is you can really make lots in oil if you understand how it moves, and can take a bit of risk. 

Unlike other instruments say stock market, its rare to see 2 or 3% moves, in oil 10% moves is common, so if you know what your doing the money is multiple fold, of course most dont, so its very risky.

But  for example the next stop on oil now before some temp reversal is at, $2 up from here, so at about $16-$17.

But for most i would not advise trading crude, whether you are a day trader or hedgefund stay away, crude moves in irrational ways, if you dont have the latest and greatest tools in helping you understand. Just looking at the current situation, with a sub normal fundamental understanding of crude, will only get you into deep water. Or your portfolio will be "not so-well".

For example in most cases had hedgefunds in the last couple of years, been short, instead of long, they could have made 100s of millions for their clients instead of the opposite. One hedgie who almost picked the bottom, lost 400 Mill in 6 months.

The jumps up from here, if you catch the reversal correctly, you need timing for that, but each step up will be in blocks of $2.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

People are treating oil like it has corona, however, history only comes up with opportunities once in a while, about once every 10 years, such as we will soon have in the real estate markets, when the meteoric pices will soon go below 1990s prices.

[Saif Malik 0]

So what is your prediction for today and will price rise on 01 may?

[Ironflimmer + 18]

17 minutes ago, Saif Malik said:

So what is your prediction for today and will price rise on 01 may?

The WTI June contract expires on May 19. So nothing in particular will occur on May 1st. Not to my knowledge, that is.

Some hedge funds are right now going berserk buying WTI futures and that is driving prices up. I have yet to understand why they are so bullish at this time, when oil storages are almost completely full and demand is at all time low. I do not for a second believe that this price hike will last and by Mid May prices will plunge drastically again - or perhaps even before.
The market is extremely volatile now and nothing can ensure that prices are not going to go negative again. Yes, some traders learned the hard way, but now new traders are trying their luck and it will not be pretty.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i put the trades on a couple of days ago at about 12.50, it did go down and hit about 10.5, so i was off, and now just letting it ride, with stop at $9

[astros148 + 5]

11 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

i put the trades on a couple of days ago at about 12.50, it did go down and hit about 10.5, so i was off, and now just letting it ride, with stop at $9

lmao its not going to 9 dollars. We've hit the bottom already. Expected target 27 dollars in short term. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

yes my target 1st one is 28, today crude is up 22%, this you never get in other markets, so when you trade crude you better bet right.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The 2nd target is above 50, this will happen just about the time war is declared on Iran, roughly during the summer. Until then, fundamentally if nother virus hits, whether it be from bats, giraffes or monkeys, you never know nowadays, that could hit the econ and oil prices yet once again.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

How to figure out the direction of the market.

One of the tricks i use to always figure out the direction of whatever, dow, $, BitC, OIL is simple. Normally say if you look at one thing, lets say the moving average you have less than 50% chance of winning. But you show say 5 charts on the same instrument and say on different time frames, lets say 5min, 1hr, 4hr, daily and lets thrown in 23 Mins. Now on each of those charts you throw different ideas that could show the direction, so that could be price action, studies, stats etc. Now you ask about say 10 questions all of these charts, say 8 of them say its going up, well you probability now is way past 50% of winning this trade. Usually close to 80% even higher, since once these questions turns the other way, that tells you to get out, before damage occurs. So as long as you are not stubborn, in wanting it to go your way, and you are willing to sometimes be wrong, but lose a bit, this is really easy to trade. Now oil is different since in one day it could drop 30%, therefore you need to be agile. So in summary, trading is not easy at all. But the more you can automate it, with things that work, the better off youll be. So certain platform have studies that you cant get say on yahoo finance, or tradestation or what have you. so you then need to search for what works and what doesnt, add it all together and now you have a fair  chance of beating the market, and most analysts out there, even hedgefunds, since many of them use math thats subjective and can be modified daily, but many are just fundamentalists, those are the easiest to beat.  Trick is then to automate it, and never have to  use your emotions, since traders or investors using emotions, or emotional logic never stand a chance.

Hope this helps.

 

[Oilman498 0]

You are a legend thanks for that 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now once you figure out what works what doesnt, now you need to figure out the timing part. Now this is diffficult. And here is why, most traders are greedy they want to make a quick buck, so they are always looking for opportunities, and in most cases they jump to fawlty conclusions. so you need to be patient. But if you are a greedy trader how can you be patient. So its requires lots of discipline. First assuming you can figure out what works, then  its patience waiting for the kill. You got those 2 things under your belt, and you will be a star. With little money, say $1500 you could make thousands a week, risking only your capital and no more. But go find that person.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So to all the skeptics who thought wti would roll over again this week. Well when i looked at it it was 12.5 when i bought it, and it fell to about 10 the next day, i held since my stops where 9 on all the contracts.

And now lo and behold were almost at 20, a bit off my 28 first target in less than a week. Once you understand trading, you can apply it to any instrument, spys, bits, stocks, forex, etc. However, you wont get this knowledge from any books, youtube, or any gurus out there.

Here is an example, looking at eur today, it was obvious from my studies, it would make a new monthly high. The ecb rate news was devastating, the analysts came out, and said this is it, euro will now drop 3%. And indeed eur went down about .25% after the news, but all of a sudden it shot up 1.5%, so there you have it. What the world knows, is not always the case, of what will happen. Just like this week everyone was very  bearish on wti saying it would drop again below 10, and it might, but  not this time  around, as you can now clearly see. And since i dont follow crude, only once in a while, but the way instruments work, and crowd physiology works, will always remain the same, but most analyst, traders and hedgefunds will never have the necessary sensitives to the markets, to understand this phenomenon, with the exception of certain people such as icahn, soros, kovner etc all legends who have beat wall street for decades.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Top Oil Trader

[Oilman498 0]

Oil has a big changes of hitting $22 by today, with news from trump interesting times I must say. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

while the whole world was bearish this week, and saying oil could go down under 10, well this is why my stop was at 9. But what happened went from 12.50 to 10.50 to 21. It all comes down to one thing,  timing. Planning to sell half at 28, keep   rest until after war starts.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well when i see people here who earlier told me i was wrong in my longs from 12.50 and now say that oil will go up, its time to short.

Or at least exit the longs, will do on open.

Now here at 20, there is a strong chance for a drop, based on charts, if not at open then a bit later. the drop will happen when oil hits a new high between 19.70 and 21.34 to be exact, so it did hit 20, so it may already be happening, or at least after the next fake up.

Now where could it drop to? Well since oil is very erratic and moves 30x more than other instruments in 1 day. Other instruments have limits how much they should move each day, and that is controlled by the banks,  wall street whatever, but not oil. OIl is the wild west. And if you dont use a stop, or if they run your stop say when market is closed, and markets opens up below yours stop, you are done. So what im seeing here is a retrace in oil, at least a retrace or if they go crazy more than that. Now earlier my target was 28 and it may still happen, but when i see a retrace in oil, its best to get out asap. so the retrace will be in full swing when they break 18.80, from then on down at least a couple of bucks. if Then well see. If they bring it below 15, that's not good. Below 11 even worse.

Now in case they take out 22, still possible then 29 is next. But for me i wont be holding the bag while they make up their minds.

So if you trade next week, make sure you pray a lot before. And if crude does drop, at least dont forget to fill up your car.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

How i could tell on sunday that  oil would drop at globex open im not sure, but im out. Now its up to the experts to tell you where its going. May be the guys who said to short last week at 10, and have been pumping it ever since, may get some grace finally. In either case i may revisit oil at a later date, until then, may the force of energy be with you.

[Federico Poggio 0]

12 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

How i could tell on sunday that  oil would drop at globex open im not sure, but im out. Now its up to the experts to tell you where its going. May be the guys who said to short last week at 10, and have been pumping it ever since, may get some grace finally. In either case i may revisit oil at a later date, until then, may the force of energy be with you.

you were right all along, i dont know about 10.. but we will know the real price once we get closer to the expiration day of the contract, perhaps they will be able to maintain the price around 18 this week.. but i cant imagine it that high the following week.. once the real buyers need to step in thats gonna change the game, what do you think @Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well though i thought wti might actually sell off here, it didnt, yet. but im happy i got out for now.

 

looking once more at chart, not my kind of long right here. and to short here hoping it goes to 15, not my kind of thing, low risk reward.

so we stay away and play something more safe. 

So could oil hit 10? Might hit a bit above first say 14. Again for me not worth to pursue. Going long here, not worth it. Since for now, oil like it ran out of gas, no pun intended.

 

[ironcookeroo 0]

There is probably 10m barrels of storage left at Cushing but 200m+ barrel open interest. Correct me if I am wrong but that means that 190,000 contracts need to be snapped up by refineries or covered by short-sellers in order for the holders to roll or exit.

Refinery usage is like 12-13m per day. Even if it all went to refineries (ignoring the massive amounts of imported crude this month) there would still be a number of holders. There are only 9 trading days left for WTI June.

Where does it all go? 

Please tell me what I'm missing, I'm about to bet the farm shorting June WTI.

Max Cushing storage source :

https://www.ft.com/content/51d2f6a5-1a71-4c1c-b022-8768fdb72519

Refinery Usage:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRRIUS2&f=W

[Ironflimmer + 18]

I took 5 days on the rollercoaster going up, but now I'm off again.

As you, I fear what is going to happen up until the June WTI is closed. My guess is it will take a hard hit, but I am not willing to risk everything and go short. So I will wait until after 18th may and then jump back in.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

good stuff, so it did reach my 28  target today, wanted to short but to busy with other trading, now i noticed its down 4 bucks since i last looked today, oh well. will  need to analyze to see where were standing. When i come back later i may actually take a plunge here.at least until it reverses. good luck