wti hits my $10 target, now to $28,we wont see $10 again

[Federico Poggio 0]

6 hours ago, ironcookeroo said:

There is probably 10m barrels of storage left at Cushing but 200m+ barrel open interest. Correct me if I am wrong but that means that 190,000 contracts need to be snapped up by refineries or covered by short-sellers in order for the holders to roll or exit.

Refinery usage is like 12-13m per day. Even if it all went to refineries (ignoring the massive amounts of imported crude this month) there would still be a number of holders. There are only 9 trading days left for WTI June.

Where does it all go? 

Please tell me what I'm missing, I'm about to bet the farm shorting June WTI.

Max Cushing storage source :

https://www.ft.com/content/51d2f6a5-1a71-4c1c-b022-8768fdb72519

Refinery Usage:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRRIUS2&f=W

 

thats what im seeing too, i keep checking the volume data at CME website:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_volume_voi.html#tradeDate=20200505

its going down every day, but still a lot of volume and open interest... 

june contract expires on may 18, i think they are trying to keep it up this week because next week will be hard to keep this price at this levels.. although i dont think the same will happen as last month since the volume dropped A LOT... and there is a lot of volume on july too..

so keep an eye on traps.. have the feeling they will pretend its gonna go all the way down but bounce back hard..
10-15 for june contract is probable on my figures.

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so well since march i have watched 1000s of trader accounts, so people who swing or daytrade, futures go byby. unfortunately the kind of good traders during ranging markets or straight up markets use basic charting techniques and kind of make it, while most dont. But since march most of even the best traders have now been wiped out, one trader i watched blew a 600k swing trading account in 1 month, he simply couldnt read the wild swings and got played very hard. so what can we learn from this, I guess, try and figure a system that is more accurate, and could withstand even the corona  swings. Easier said than done. But if you are not lazy, there is light at end of the tunnel. Remember mr buffet is also down 50 Billion since feb 2020, but if i was him, there is good news, he wont lose 50 Billion, he will lose a lot more, as the market gives us more surprises, well not really surprise, but surprises if you where clueless. Remeber during the easier times we saw some genius fund manger lose 400 million on oil in just 4 months. Can you imagine if he was trading now, he would probaly be losing a lot more a lot faster. All these traders share the same thing, they are basically lucky  during calmer periods, but when SHTF, then their     accounts drops out of sight. The one trader who kind of made a 1000% return this year, he invested 27Mill in short options, and cashed in 2.5 Billions, but this guy has lost billions before so this was money to pad losing trades.  in the comming months maybe years expect a lot of weird moves, well weird when you use outdated techniques. Even i when i got out of oil this week in 20s, i was scared it would go down, well it hit 28, and now about 25, so yes i knew it would go down, but didnt short then when it was 23, since i knew i had to be careful.   The oil chart is way too weird, to correctly see the next days action correctly sometimes, but it does give you ample warning something is about to happen very soon.                                                                                                                                         

[Federico Poggio 0]

im learning a lot from watching the big accounts play the WTI and also how the news play a big role here..

i have a hunch they will fake a panic dump near contract expiration and bounce it back... if it goes below 10 i would be very careful..

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well been trying not to look at crude, but time to go long again at 25, this time with a large stop, 20, trading oil is risky to say the least.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well after oil reached my 28 target and moved to 25 and now staying in that range for 3 days, is trouble. so moved the 25 longs stops to 24, should probably get hit on monday or globex.

[Timothy Lewman 0]

Seem like WTI is running up overnight and selling off during the day. Is there a play to buy on market close and sell market open until the June contact expires on 5/19?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So im out crude longs with a loss, crude move $1 against me. Lesson learned once you get out of longs, dont get back in again right after.

[Jee + 27]

23 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So im out crude longs with a loss, crude move $1 against me. Lesson learned once you get out of longs, dont get back in again right after.

Will we see negative June furtures this month?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I have no clue. but what i do have a clue about is, economics will never be the same again. So whatever you know or learnt in eco 101, throw it out the window. At this point only perfect understanding of charts can give you a clue to the future direction of a market, oil, dow, gold etc. All the hedgefund guys who losts billions in the last surprise, are now dumbfounded and cant figure out why market hasnt crashed, and why they didnt figure out it would crash when they where long in Jan 2020.

Now having said that, Oil is very volatile based on say the dow or gold or nasdaq. So trading oil is dangerous especially if you where long when it dropped to -40.

No one right now can predict what happens next, especially since now the chinese will test 11 million people cause of a new surge in cases. If that result is surprising then that would reverberate in the markets, oil, dow etc.

All you can see now is really a negative outlook on market, with market still going up nevertheless, due to mass printing of money worldwide, and asset purchases by govs.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Last I checked this thread was in April.  Anything changed?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so interesting week, my co have been watching this up and comming trader, he really was very accurate, so after 6 months of giving him 10k 50k they decided this week to up his account to 500k.  So this week he   got the account up to 530k. But today alas hes down 150k, and they may soon cut him out since hes not closing his positions as they are going against him, and he may by next week be down to 0 or worse. Was really amazing to watch his account draw down so fast, after he thought he was god for 1 week.

But my 3 shorts from 24 are not doing that well. So instead of exiting at a loss like a winner, i added two more shorts here at 29. If it hits 31, will take a huge hit. My average short is now at 26.18. Trading oil is risky to say the least.

[junglekidman 0]

S

On 5/15/2020 at 9:06 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

so interesting week, my co have been watching this up and comming trader, he really was very accurate, so after 6 months of giving him 10k 50k they decided this week to up his account to 500k.  So this week he   got the account up to 530k. But today alas hes down 150k, and they may soon cut him out since hes not closing his positions as they are going against him, and he may by next week be down to 0 or worse. Was really amazing to watch his account draw down so fast, after he thought he was god for 1 week.

But my 3 shorts from 24 are not doing that well. So instead of exiting at a loss like a winner, i added two more shorts here at 29. If it hits 31, will take a huge hit. My average short is now at 26.18. Trading oil is risky to say the least.

So you better hope oil reverses soon to 25 . another large range day up to 31 and you are done

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

and were out shorts. lesson learnt... well many times. dont underestimate your first predictions, (that we could hit 50 from 10), and two dont short a strong market.

[junglekidman 0]

so you ate your loss. averaging up sometimes seems the solution to a trade gone south but many times it backfires

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed. Like i said, i dont trade oil too much, but from time to time i try to give it a try, so yes the 12.5 to 20 trade made me quite a lot, and now this loss from  26 to 32 i gave some back. But there is a way to tame even oil. I think if i focused exclusively on oil, instead of spys dow and others, i would learn its intricacies and be able to trade much more accurately. But I may give it one more try this week.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok after another look here. at this mess. I just shorted 3 at 32.3, this is kind of where i exited my shorts from 26. But since crude is so volatile, i will need to use a big stop here. For now chose upper thirties, there is only one way to risk in crude, and that is to be willing to pay the price if you are wrong. So i chose entry + 5 for the stop. My first target is somewhere in the low 20s.

Will get back here if it reaches target or worse reaches stops.

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well took some small profit exiting shorts, and reversed long here @32, looks like 38 is next. Dont make sense based on news, but

sometimes  you cant use logic in trading. Actually in most cases you cant use logic. Once you think your brain can outsmart the market your kind of done.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so i know i said i wouldnt come back until either my stop hit or target, but looking at the chart again it just didnt look right to go long here, the risk reward was really low. so either it meant to get out of trade with a 30 cent loss, or go short. But then i saw this article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Bulls-Are-Back23584.html

, and i knew i had to close my longs, which i did. based on my experience, if you look at any futures, bonds, oil, gold, dow etc at any given time, and most traders are going one way, it usually means the prices have to go the other way. Since this article tellsm me traders are now bullish, that is a clear sign for me to close the shorts, which i did. and now doing a little more analysis on the charts to see if there is a strong potential for a selloff, the risk reward told me that short was a much high prob than going long, so yet again, shorted earlier just below 32. 

This time will let it sit, until either it hits my stop upper thirties, 37 to be exact, or i see that most are now turning bearish again.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well wrong yet again. my fault, no excuses. but based on charts im wrong big time, and morrow will get out at a loss maybe 1500 loss per contract and go long. This thing could head for 40s here, before it takes a breather.

So my target now is 40.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well out longs at 32. dont  look like 40 will make it after all.

[Oilman498 0]

$40 could be in play again 

[Blackbag99 + 20]

On 4/22/2020 at 4:06 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

So again though i dont trade oil at all and wont in the future. But I finally decided to crate an wti profile on my charts permanently, so i can  see its future progressions.

Here is an idea based on my charts.

Right now chart shows prices at !2.5, based on future oil prices, right now target is $28 with $9 Being the exit point for this long, should things go sour.

Fundamentally, lots of countries including us will build up their reserves at $12 even if they though prices could hit 5. Reason is their last major purchases where at 60s, so why not stock up at almost 90% discounts.

Besides oil bailout coming soon.

So this is a once in a lifetime opp to buy oil at these prices 12.5.

 

I don't understand why you would pick one oil price?

You trade oil against demand. WTI is lower than Louei Light. Louey light is higher than Brent.

Just on transportation costs that is wrong. If you are selling; then surely, that should be Louisiana Light and if you are buying; it should be UK Brent. I struggle to understand trading WTI?