A government-funded analysis found hydroxychloroquine ineffective for COVID-19, increases risk of death

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

11 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Take a good honest look at how all the "real scientific epidemiologists" have done so far with their totally fallacious predictions of deaths. The few "deniers" among them were correct. High plaudits to them. No plaudits to those who think wrecking the economy is the way to solve the problem and getting rid of President Trump. 

As I showed earlie in the thread, if you extrapolate NY State numbers across the US, you get very much the same numbers that epidemiologists projected. My extrapolation based on the best available NY data showed around 1.5 million vs the initial 2.2 million estimated months ago. I'll put in the caveat that my data likely undercounted the deaths by about 25%.

No one has countered the math that I did despite their horror at my being right. So it's a safe assumption that my numbers are valid.

[BLA + 1,666]

5 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Where did you get those numbers?  Do you work for the WHO?  😮  I ask because I believe you got your numbers from the CCP just like the WHO did.  Who else would know or be asked?  Oh, I just checked Wiki and surprise!  That's where you got your numbers, and Wiki got them from the CCP.  But you didn't read into that enough to get a decent tally.  Here's another 300 or so million for you to add:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-China_Federation_of_Trade_Unions

When I lived and worked there, for 9 years, all the airline workers were members, all the staff at hotels, all the police, hospital workers, and just about everyone else except for day-labor types were all members.  In fact it was pretty much a given that if you didn't belong to the party, you weren't going to get any kind of decent job.  A simple search on that turned up a good article from The Straits Times:

Having Chinese Communist Party membership is like having 'a diploma', 'opens doors'

In any case, and for whatever point you were trying to make, put the number at closer to 1/2 a billion, 5 times what you were quoting, and you'll be in a ball park enough to talk about it.  I am not making a judgement for or against people in the party or why they join it (both of my wives were party members, as were all of their family and friends), just getting you closer to the facts.  Carry on...

The number is 90 million CCP.  There are seven other party affiliations that are allowed to exist as long as they tow the CCP line.  Maybe that's the extra 410 million you got from your wiki

My source is from a U.S.  Intelligence report dated March 23, 2018. 

CCP is a very privileged group in China.  They don't want 500 million members.  

I would not take any number from WHO.  I wouldn't trust them to tell me the time of day.  

Anyone can edit wiki posts , even the CCP.   I trust the report I read over wiki.  

If you lived there for 9 years you understand how secretive the ruling CCP can be.  Any number is suspect. 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by BLA

[UNC12345 + 171]

On 4/24/2020 at 6:51 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Yea right, take the word of Canadas health officials or Forbes based.

I'm not even sure what to believe anymore to be completely honest, but this is a classic and well-worn strategy on here....discredit the source if you disagree with the stated view.  Very few will believe any source that doesn't agree with their own views.

Edited April 29, 2020 by UNC12345

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

No one has countered the math that I did despite their horror at my being right. So it's a safe assumption that my numbers are valid.

No, I am trying my best to skip over your comments about Covid.  We will never agree, and I basicially have no patience to argue with someone who still extrapolates that 1.5 million people on the U.S. will die from the China Flu.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

57 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

No, I am trying my best to skip over your comments about Covid.  We will never agree, and I basicially have no patience to argue with someone who still extrapolates that 1.5 million people on the U.S. will die from the China Flu.

And you're somewhat bitter that I destroyed the arguments of the death-pushers you highlighted? I noticed you had no response to those either. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, UNC12345 said:

I'm not even sure what to believe anymore to be completely honest, but this is a classic and well-worn strategy on here....discredit the source if you disagree with the stated view.  Very few will believe any source that doesn't agree with their own views.

This is the nature of propaganda, I'm afraid. Throw so much contradictory information at people that they give up trying to dissect fact from fiction. The fascists were big believers in this, and you see it today on Facebook and YouTube, etc.

No source is perfect, but some are hugely better than others. Sources that publish retractions, for instance, are more reliable than InfoWars. 

The CDC and WHO are two (of many) organisations that went into this pandemic flying blind and trying to make sense of what is going on. They don't even agree with each other INSIDE those organisations. That is part of the reason they are more trustworthy - anything hidden by insiders won't be hidden for long. 

Don't give up - there is truth out there. One thing to watch for, though, is that the biggest complainers about "censorship" are also the biggest pushers of "misinformation". Truth doesn't stay buried, lies are desperate for a platform. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

And you're somewhat bitter that I destroyed the arguments of the death-pushers you highlighted? I noticed you had no response to those either. 

That ive destroyed. What a interesting commentary. This I can tell you,science and analytics will unfold this entire debacle...and narratives or agendas will be dealt with.

Thousands more will pass due to the lack needed healthcare that is not covid related. Medical professionals will deal with this directly experiencing first hand the mishandling and the over the top messaging. 

One message will be clear,integrating world society's will no longer be done at the flip of a switch. It is rather apparent science is not yet ready to address viruses from across the world.

I cannot help but to think why former Presidents did not go to the citizens of the US along with leaders of the world and inform all of its citizens we now need to invest trillions in in world healthcare intergration...Why did they leave that Skelton in the closet 

And then there is Sweden...

Edited April 29, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Source please. Everyone knows that WHO approved the virus tests. Everyone knows WHO declared the emergency.

"Many scientists" is just Fox News wordplay. Give me facts, not nonsense.

Here you go https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/15/timeline-proves-who-helped-china-make-covid-19-pandemic-worse/

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

16 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

That ive destroyed. What a interesting commentary. This I can tell you,science and analytics will unfold this entire debacle...and narratives or agendas will be dealt with.

Thousands more will pass due to the lack needed healthcare that is not covid related. Medical professionals will deal with this directly experiencing first hand the mishandling and the over the top messaging. 

One message will be clear,integrating world society's will no longer be done at the flip of a switch. It is rather apparent science is not yet ready to address viruses from across the world.

I cannot help but to think why former Presidents did not go to the citizens of the US along with leaders of the world and inform all of its citizens we now need to invest trillions in in world healthcare intergration...Why did they leave that Skelton in the closet 

And then there is Sweden...

Notice that the only facts I was presented with were verifiably false or opinion, not facts. Everything else that you stated here is pretending that I have views that I don't.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/24/2020 at 4:18 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Well, that part is true enough.

Yet when he wisely insisted on opening up the economy he was opposed or attacked by most of the government medical establishment and most media. That is until they realized that the people were against them and with Trump. Now they are slowly changing their story. Trump is a real leader and going against the establishment and deep state which have been leading us to hell. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/24/2020 at 4:39 PM, 0R0 said:

That is absolutely untrue. The Chinese have been planning to go to war with a virus, having made explicit statements of the matter. It is the basis of all of their military operations.

The need for an Eisenhower is great . Finding one is difficult because we have not had anything to run for a test bed from which such excellence could arise.

Trump is our leader. He decided to unveil the enemy which is the leadership of China, the CCP. He decided to deal with our trade imbalance and catering to China for easy money while we destroy our own basic industries. This is coming just in time. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

No, I am trying my best to skip over your comments about Covid.  We will never agree, and I basicially have no patience to argue with someone who still extrapolates that 1.5 million people on the U.S. will die from the China Flu.

Tom,. you might want to step back a bit and reconsider.  I find it entirely possible that 1.5 million in the USA may die from this China Flu.  The reason I say this is by looking at Vermont; the casualty rate here is running at 5% of discovered infections.  That is a high number.  The argument could be made that there are lots and lots of undetected infections, where the infected are asymptomatic, and obviously if you are not tested and still infected then you will not be showing up in the stats and those stats will be biased upwards.  

But I am not so sanguine.  The reason is that rural States (such as Vermont) have mostly rural populations where the folks do not travel much outside their areas, and typically do not travel to the "city,"  be that Burlington or a larger city outside the State such as Boston or New York.  So you get this infection pattern of clusters in the largest city, Burlington, and pretty much nothing out in the boondocks.  The deaths are also concentrated in the cities.  So the reason the disease does not migrate out into the countryside is largely due to absence of travel to and fro cities in the countryside by the country folks. 

Ultimately, this disease becomes widespread - it just may well take time, possibly years.  Let us assume that ultimately there is a 60% infection rate.  That is 198 million.  A death rate of 5% is a staggering 9.9 million.  At a death rate of one-half percent, you are still at 990,000.  "If" no vaccine is developed and injected, "then" with successive waves of this virus out into the population, including the countryside, it is plausible to start looking at one million dead.  

Don't anybody kid yourself: this is a nasty little disease.  Very nasty. And right now, nobody knows which way it might mutate. It may well mutate to a non-lethal form, and become just another background irritant from China, much like bedbugs and the emerald ash borer, but that is not pre-ordained. Americans have no immunity to these Chinese viruses, and it is undetermined how this plays out.  Sorry to be a wet blanket. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Take a good honest look at how all the "real scientific epidemiologists" have done so far with their totally fallacious predictions of deaths. The few "deniers" among them were correct.

Not really,  the deniers have zero evidence as we didn't have a "control world" where the virus was let to spread unchecked.

So if the death toll is lower than worst case predictions that is more evidence that the social distancing worked than evidence it was useless.

In crowded areas where distancing was near impossible, like New York, the death toll was very high - again more evidence for the effectiveness of distancing.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:19 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

I realize you're really mad, but consider this: The majority of Canada's cases have come from the US (or they did at one point). Should Canada be suing the US for being so incapable of dealing with the virus?

First things first - Canada needs to work with the US to contain the disease in the continent.

All this talk of starting a war with China, whether hot or economic, is unproductive. It's just a way to get Trump's base riled up behind him.

You rarely give any references Geoff. Canada allowed flights to and from China late into the game, long after Trump closed our borders. 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/canada-closes-border-to-foreign-citizens-amid-covid-19/1768308 Trudeau halted travel March 16.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-media-change-tune-trump-attacks-coronavirus-china-travel-ban Trump halted travel January 31.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Not really,  the deniers have zero evidence as we didn't have a "control world" where the virus was let to spread unchecked.

So if the death toll is lower than worst case predictions that is more evidence that the social distancing worked than evidence it was useless.

In crowded areas where distancing was near impossible, like New York, the death toll was very high - again more evidence for the effectiveness of distancing.

 

Nobody with any knowledge base was unaware that social distancing would be a huge factor. I brought that up early on. People talk about NYC but it is part of a megalopolis including parts of New Jersey and all of Philadelphia. Boston and some other cities are also nearby. 

NYC and New York State were the least prepared and latest in responding to the pandemic despite the fact they should have known how vulnerable they were. The media has not covered that fact at all. Instead they blame the Federal government and then do not use the massive hospital ship, or field hospitals given them! They ignorantly claimed a need for ventilators that they did not need and probably did more harm than good with those they had. Their response was a dark comedy of errors. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

You rarely give any references Geoff. Canada allowed flights to and from China late into the game, long after Trump closed our borders. 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/canada-closes-border-to-foreign-citizens-amid-covid-19/1768308 Trudeau halted travel March 16.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-media-change-tune-trump-attacks-coronavirus-china-travel-ban Trump halted travel January 31.

Partially true.  Canada closed travel in stages. Some of those late flights were just to get Canadians home and the passengers were strictly quarantined.

Of course, if you dislike the shutdown then that means you approve of Trudeau over trump. Haha Teasing.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Enthalpic said:

Partially true.  Canada closed travel in stages. Some of those late flights were just to get Canadians home and the passengers were strictly quarantined.

Of course, if you dislike the shutdown then that means you approve of Trudeau over trump. Haha Teasing.

I was in favor of both countries shutting down TRAVEL, especially inbound. Not shutting down the economy for long, and have been saying to ease the restrictions for weeks. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

NYC and New York State were the least prepared and latest in responding to the pandemic despite the fact they should have known how vulnerable they were.

All true, and this is compounded by the localized sexual practices of "city folks" living in these metro regions.  The population there views itself as sexually sophisticated, and one aspect of that is the noted bias towards sexual contact with strangers.  So you have this situation of the "pick-up," or the "hook-up," where people meet at some party and proceed to bed each other.  As you might imagine, such close contact is an ideal platform for the rapid spread of infections. 

Admittedly, this gives a whole new meaning to the term "social distancing."

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

15 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

You rarely give any references Geoff. Canada allowed flights to and from China late into the game, long after Trump closed our borders. 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/canada-closes-border-to-foreign-citizens-amid-covid-19/1768308 Trudeau halted travel March 16.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-media-change-tune-trump-attacks-coronavirus-china-travel-ban Trump halted travel January 31.

Ron, you're really a broken record about the one, and only one, thing that Trump did right in the first two months. By the time Trump reduced travel from China, coronavirus had already spread to a minimum of four states: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

Why did the US stop doin any containment for the next month? The WHO and CDC and Peter Navaro were briefing the Whitehouse on the dangers way back in January.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/donald-trump-coronavirus-memos-warning-peter-navarro

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/#6512a59a548d

BTW, 40,000 people have travelled from China to the US since then, so technically these are travel restrictions, and even then most weren't quarantined - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

All true, and this is compounded by the localized sexual practices of "city folks" living in these metro regions.  The population there views itself as sexually sophisticated, and one aspect of that is the noted bias towards sexual contact with strangers.  So you have this situation of the "pick-up," or the "hook-up," where people meet at some party and proceed to bed each other.  As you might imagine, such close contact is an ideal platform for the rapid spread of infections. 

Admittedly, this gives a whole new meaning to the term "social distancing."

tinder

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:19 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

I realize you're really mad, but consider this: The majority of Canada's cases have come from the US (or they did at one point). Should Canada be suing the US for being so incapable of dealing with the virus?

First things first - Canada needs to work with the US to contain the disease in the continent.

All this talk of starting a war with China, whether hot or economic, is unproductive. It's just a way to get Trump's base riled up behind him.

As usual, no reference. You just spout off Geoff. I am about ready to mute you.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:54 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

Not defending CCP, although I will defend the Chinese. I'm saying that Americans and Brits that seem to want war with China over this need to look at their own governments' miserable response first.

Not only that, but they shouldn't get fooled into supporting their leaders because of warlike rhetoric. It just makes things worse.

You just make stuff up! Warlike rhetoric!?

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

28 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

But I am not so sanguine.  The reason is that rural States (such as Vermont) have mostly rural populations where the folks do not travel much outside their areas, and typically do not travel to the "city,"  be that Burlington or a larger city outside the State such as Boston or New York.  So you get this infection pattern of clusters in the largest city, Burlington, and pretty much nothing out in the boondocks.  The deaths are also concentrated in the cities.  So the reason the disease does not migrate out into the countryside is largely due to absence of travel to and fro cities in the countryside by the country folks. 

This is true - cities always get hit first by illnesses because of the amount of travel and interaction.

In the flu's case, it kills more rural people, partially because of age and partially because of lack of access to hospitals. I don't know whether COVID-19 will hold true to that, though, because there is now ample warning about social distancing, so the countryside might not take the brunt of the second wave, if it happens.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

7 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

BTW, 40,000 people have travelled from China to the US since then, so technically these are travel restrictions, and even then most weren't quarantined - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

Well then, would you not conclude that it would be prudent for the USA to distance itself from China, stop issuing visas to Chinese nationals, and shut down direct flights, requiring visitors to travel by sea  (and thus be effectively quarantined for two weeks)?   Why keep doing business with a society that slaughters pangolins in those Wet markets and spreads diseases around, all in the idea that eating that stuff and powdered rhino horns gives you sexual stamina and prowess?  I mean - who needs this?  Let's decamp, leave those people alone, and if that is how they want to run their society, fine, we keep our distance.  Time to forget about China, they have done enough damage  (and show no inclination to change their ways, from what I can make of it). 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Ron, you're really a broken record about the one, and only one, thing that Trump did right in the first two months. By the time Trump reduced travel from China, coronavirus had already spread to a minimum of four states: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

Why did the US stop doin any containment for the next month? The WHO and CDC and Peter Navaro were briefing the Whitehouse on the dangers way back in January.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/donald-trump-coronavirus-memos-warning-peter-navarro

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/#6512a59a548d

BTW, 40,000 people have travelled from China to the US since then, so technically these are travel restrictions, and even then most weren't quarantined - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

Economic adviser gave worst-case scenario of 500,000 deaths

Typical Guardian news. It is a good think that Trump didn't buy into that. He did the best he could to close the borders. He is not a dictator. Even so, the establishment tried to destroy him by selling the idea that he was a xenophobic monster. 

Right now we are reopening our economy because President Trump is a great leader. Our major problems have been in our few large cities. Trump has rightly ignored the hysteria mongers. You are the best one on Oil Price! 

Thanks for some references. They provide something to refute when wrong, and vice versa.