The Blind Leading the Blind

[Piotr Berman + 82]

Re: Americans becoming shaggy hippies.  I am already quite shaggy (can one get a haircut by a private appointment?).  And with the looming bout of mass unemployment, the number of happy consumers will shrink a lot.  People will cut on unnecessary purchases, grow their own vegetables and herbs (hippies can use some backyard and basement grown herbs), cook at home -- there was a run on legumes in my area, I joined the herd and I have a stash of barley and lentils.  We are talking about a huge restructuring of the economy with a lot of losers all over the place, not just in the oil patch.

Perhaps fewer people will go on cruises and more on camping and fishing -- dine on your own catch.  Hunting will get some revival -- people already stocked on weapons and ammo, and again, eating what you caught is now attractive.  If we expand the hippie concept to all kinds of "back to nature", gardening, fishing, hunting, cooking your own food from ingredients, we can be healthier and happier.  But there is a long list of economic losers too.

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

By the way, there is no "maybe or perhaps" on climate change. It's happening, the more pessimistic scenarios are turning to be true, Europe is experiencing long term drought, greatest in 500 years, which is getting worse, swathes of formerly arable land are turning into desert, and the desertified areas in turn experience less rainfall, whole nations are on the move, and once the permafrost thaws, realeasing huge frozen methane deposits, the process will only accelerate. When the traditional grain producing areas turn to dustbowls, good luck feeding billions of people with hunting - even if you eat all the squirrels and rats. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

19 hours ago, stanley hoffman said:

I see a lot more than just this happening and it all comes together as to what is happening in the spiritual realm being made manifest in the physical realm. 

< snip >

You might to try using paragraphs; I generally don't read wall of texts.

Also, bringing religious debate into an oil forum might not end well.  Your results may vary.

[specinho + 470]

19 hours ago, stanley hoffman said:

People are being conditioned to let the government take control in order to solve their problems.  You put all of these events together and we see the prophesies of the end times in the making.  No man knows the day and hour, but the signs have never been clearer than they are today for those who have eyes to see and ears to hear.

Fear not........ for there has been a latest discovery that could do wonder.........

Edited April 30, 2020 by specinho

[D Coyne + 305]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:45 AM, Wombat said:

It would be nice if any of that were true. Covid much worse than he states, but I think it "safer" to let 2m citizens die than shut down economy for indefinite period and have all the divorce, suicide etc. Especially when you consider that a top epidemiologist has mentioned that the second wave in Winter going to be worse than the first. There ain't no stoppin it, so better off gettin some herd immunity? So long as there is enough ventilators now to minimise the death toll, it should be allowed to run its course.

There are not enough ventilators, so there is that problem.

[D Coyne + 305]

On 4/28/2020 at 9:23 AM, Valerie Williams said:

I don't think the ventilators are minimizing the death toll. Last info I read, if you go on the ventilator, your chances are not good. You're already past saving, and the ventilators are maybe only buying a bit more time. And so far, that extra time has not been enough.

Valerie,

Depends on how long one is on the ventilator, the longer you remain on it the worse your chances.  Hey we could just forgo medical care, right?  You need enough hospital beds and pulmonary specialists to handle the number of patients properly or the hospital system quickly becomes overwhelmed.  I guess one has to imagine their parents getting sick with covid19, which becomes much more likely without social distancing, would you rather that they have a respirator available for their care if needed?

[D Coyne + 305]

On 4/28/2020 at 11:00 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

I refer again to my comment that there are so many opinions, facts, beliefs ot there that the normal, run of the mill Joe just says, ‘Screw it. Nobody has a clue what is actually going on with this virus, let’s just go back to work...’

Can you blame him?

Doug, 

You don't seem like an average Joe.  Yes there is the opinion of the majority of experts and there are lone voices in the wilderness that say, no all of the other experts are wrong except me.  You can choose to believe anything you want, of course.  I will go with what the mainstream view of the experts is.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Doug, 

You don't seem like an average Joe.  Yes there is the opinion of the majority of experts and there are lone voices in the wilderness that say, no all of the other experts are wrong except me.  You can choose to believe anything you want, of course.  I will go with what the mainstream view of the experts is.

Why don’t I seem like “an average Joe”?

[Wombat + 1,028]

9 hours ago, D Coyne said:

There are not enough ventilators, so there is that problem.

You would be surprised, many companies are producing ventilators now. Here in Australia, we have a company called Resmed that usually produces C-pap machines (for sleep apnea), and now they only producing ventilators. Many other companies also producing them now, even F1 racing company in UK. Supply is increasing very rapidly.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

You would be surprised, many companies are producing ventilators now. Here in Australia, we have a company called Resmed that usually produces C-pap machines (for sleep apnea), and now they only producing ventilators. Many other companies also producing them now, even F1 racing company in UK. Supply is increasing very rapidly.

Absolutely right, Wombat.  My company as well.  Normal production is flight simulators, but the company took the task and is delivering the first batches out of a first run of 10,000 machines.  Next to oil, the world seems to be on the verge of being awash in ventilators, whether they are eventually found useful may be another question for another day.

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Why don’t I seem like “an average Joe”?

I think you are the epitome of the average Joe Dougie  They don't come more average than you

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

I think you are the epitome of the average Joe Dougie  They don't come more average than you

Well, as I have never met you, and the fact that you know little, or nothing, about me, your comment says quite a bit about your character, or lack thereof.😊

[Wombat + 1,028]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Absolutely right, Wombat.  My company as well.  Normal production is flight simulators, but the company took the task and is delivering the first batches out of a first run of 10,000 machines.  Next to oil, the world seems to be on the verge of being awash in ventilators, whether they are eventually found useful may be another question for another day.

When u consider that Spain has just "gone Greek" and requested a bailout from the Troika (IMF, EU, ECB), it becomes clear that no country can afford a "second shutdown" when Round 2 of Covid comes about, so I think we will need plenty of ventilators. My best guess is about 4 months from now.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

When u consider that Spain has just "gone Greek" and requested a bailout from the Troika (IMF, EU, ECB), it becomes clear that no country can afford a "second shutdown" when Round 2 of Covid comes about, so I think we will need plenty of ventilators. My best guess is about 4 months from now.

I suspect that will be when many of these smaller countries will exit the EU.  Then they can get back to the game of devaluing their currencies every (insert #) years, as their economies used to avail themselves of.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

20 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Valerie,

Depends on how long one is on the ventilator, the longer you remain on it the worse your chances.  Hey we could just forgo medical care, right?  You need enough hospital beds and pulmonary specialists to handle the number of patients properly or the hospital system quickly becomes overwhelmed.  I guess one has to imagine their parents getting sick with covid19, which becomes much more likely without social distancing, would you rather that they have a respirator available for their care if needed?

Why are you jumping all over my case? Did you have a bad day? Where did I imply ventilators shouldn't be used? Or that they weren't needed? Or that they shouldn't be provided? Or whatever the heck point you're making? You might find it helpful to review the context:

 

On 4/27/2020 at 8:45 AM, Wombat said:

It would be nice if any of that were true. Covid much worse than he states, but I think it "safer" to let 2m citizens die than shut down economy for indefinite period and have all the divorce, suicide etc. Especially when you consider that a top epidemiologist has mentioned that the second wave in Winter going to be worse than the first. There ain't no stoppin it, so better off gettin some herd immunity? So long as there is enough ventilators now to minimise the death toll, it should be allowed to run its course.

... then:

On 4/28/2020 at 8:23 AM, Valerie Williams said:

I don't think the ventilators are minimizing the death toll. Last info I read, if you go on the ventilator, your chances are not good. You're already past saving, and the ventilators are maybe only buying a bit more time. And so far, that extra time has not been enough.

It sounded like Wombat was saying that we should go ahead and all get infected so we can have some herd immunity, and that this approach would be low risk, because we have plenty of ventilators. I merely pointed out that maybe the availability of ventilators shouldn't make you feel like we can all go ahead and get infected now.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 4/28/2020 at 11:58 PM, D Coyne said:

Valerie,

Sorry, if its not in a reputable science jounal, not buying.  I am not going to bother with a video, but I would look at a citation from something worth spending my time on.

Try link below for something with a little believability

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

or original article in Nature Medicine at link below

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

From the conclusion of the article linked above:

The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.

Italics added by me for emphasis, no italics in original article.

Valerie, this smells like a cover-up to me. Humans have immune systems, including the Uighers that the Chinese use to harvest live organs without anaesthetic. Very possible they use Uighers for experimental purposes, just like the Nazis did with the Jews, and probably the North Koreans up to it too. If Pangolins had the virus, they would also be dying like flies coz they are mammals with the same ACE-2 inhibitor. These articles don't prove a thing, except that scientists are either very naive or scared of WW3. I don't believe in "coincidences". Very unlikely that the most deadly virus in modern history evolved within 12km of a Chinese bio-weapon lab by chance.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Very unlikely that the most deadly virus in modern history evolved within 12km of a Chinese bio-weapon lab by chance.

Seems like a reasonable deduction to me.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Here's a nice photo of the Wuhan Bio Lab:

[Valerie Williams + 129]

On 4/30/2020 at 1:49 AM, KevinG said:

Hi Douglas

Yes it is true that there has been a multitude of mixed messaging about COVID to the insane (injecting disinfectant or a blast of ultra violet light could be a cure - plain idiocy).

There are one important fact that cannot be denied - the death rate - it varies from almost zero to about 10%. Worldwide 3.2m identifiable cases there have been about 228,000 deaths or 7%. Australia has report a death rate of about 1.3%.

Why the huge difference - Australia was first to close their National border and each of the Australia states closed their borders to other States in our nation. Some States like West Australia (a very large State) divided the State into regions and people were not allowed to cross from one region to another. Plus across ALL Australian jurisdictions  non-essential travel  and gatherings were banned, if you were caught outside for non-essential reasons the police have the power to fine you about $1,600 (see google - Australia covid fines); millions of $'s of fine issued but for the most part people have abided by the strict rules.

I think what can be said is the death rate is it could be higher since many people that have died have not been tested - the theory being what the heck why test them they are dead.

Indonesia is a good example of this will only 784 deaths reported from 9,750 COVID cases but the reality is a much higher death rate since the coffin makers in Jakarta cannot keep up with demand. Yes it is fake news to report these low numbers in Indonesia but the reality (the truth) is the numbers are much higher. So if it's not absolutely true then it's fake even though the numbers are certainly higher going on what the coffin makers are saying.

Yes the economies are being destroyed but is it better to take short term pain (3,6,9 months) for a long term benefit - lower death/infection rate? Is it acceptable to let the virus run it course and take the bet "it won’t happen to me" or "if I get it I am only a 1 in 14 chance of dying". If you are one of these people that want to take the risk would anyone entertain to notion of selecting 14 of your family member and randomly killing one of them. For the naysayers let's take 14 family members and let's tell them we are going to kill one of you randomly. Would you do it - I would probably think not. But this analogy should not be lost, for the moment that's what we are potentially saying if we open the economies to soon or open the borders. What is an individual's economic loss without Government subsidies - 3,6,9 months of salary, on a salary of $100,000 the cost is therefore $25,000, $50,000 or $75,000 and for what - to keep your community and family safe. Not a big ask.

Is the data correct that's being report thus far - I am with you on this one - it's not correct - does that make it fake -NO. Is data lower or higher - I would suggest its higher which means the data presented thus far is the baseline or minimalist. Indonesia for me reaffirms that the data is low ball BUT the random sample now is so significant that Mathematicians can extrapolate scenarios. 

Yes, your constitutional rights have probably been trashed. Have constitutional rights through the passage of time been trashed in the USA; yes they have - 1860's Civil war, 1915 - 1918 WW1, 1920's prohibition, 1930's depression, 1941 - 1945 WW2, and all the wars after WW2 where conscription has been used, from 1770 the abuse of minorities, the assassinations of Presidents. So what's new about a Government making decisions for the betterment of society - nothing. That's what Governments do when you live in a democracy - and if you think they have over stepped the mark you tell them at the next election.

The analogy with climate science is not a good one - climate science might or might not be true. If climate change is true it will be a slow destructive burn; COVID 19 is already a wild fire. The baseline data of COVID 19 is not made up if anything I believe the numbers to be low.

Anyway stay safe and healthy, cheers.

Not disagreeing with anything you said, but there are also other variables to consider. The death rate is affected by how many are tested. As testing becomes more available, we are finding that a lot of asymptomatic people and those who had very mild symptoms are in the population. When these are added, the proportional death rate is reduced.

Some areas are keeping count more accurately than others, etc.

A thought that troubles me; in the US the hospitals were told that all COVID-19 cases would be paid for by the federal government. Then we hear our hospital workers saying that they are being told that everyone who dies during this time to be marked down as a COVID death. Well, it seems that in our rush to take care of everyone, we may have provided a financial incentive for hospitals to overreport the COVID cases and deaths. I guess we'll know more when the dust settles.

[Dg56 + 16]

7 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Valerie, this smells like a cover-up etc.

These articles don't prove a thing, except etc.

I don't believe in "coincidences".

Very unlikely etc. ... by chance.

Hi Wombat, I have enjoyed some of your insight in earlier posts, but this one...  

100% speculation, 0% factual. 

Sorry. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

20 minutes ago, Valerie Williams said:

Why are you jumping all over my case? Did you have a bad day? Where did I imply ventilators shouldn't be used? Or that they weren't needed? Or that they shouldn't be provided? Or whatever the heck point you're making? You might find it helpful to review the context:

 

... then:

It sounded like Wombat was saying that we should go ahead and all get infected so we can have some herd immunity, and that this approach would be low risk, because we have plenty of ventilators. I merely pointed out that maybe the availability of ventilators shouldn't make you feel like we can all go ahead and get infected now.

Valerie, I believe it is a matter of personal survival versus the survival of our nations. We cannot stay in lockdown forever, not even if a vaccine available in 9 months. The world would go bankrupt and billions would starve to death. Better to invest in testing and contact tracing and "take our medicine", painful as it might be.

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 minutes ago, Dg56 said:

Hi Wombat, I have enjoyed some of your insight in earlier posts, but this one...  

100% speculation, 0% factual. 

Sorry. 

So you think your President is lying to you? Or that his advisers are lying to him? Don't you think Fauci would have jumped down his throat if DT just made it up?

[Wombat + 1,028]

6 minutes ago, Dg56 said:

Hi Wombat, I have enjoyed some of your insight in earlier posts, but this one...  

100% speculation, 0% factual. 

Sorry. 

Perhaps u believe the Chinese version, that "US soldiers brought the virus to Wuhan"? I know who I would prefer to believe.

[Valerie Williams + 129]

43 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Valerie, this smells like a cover-up to me. Humans have immune systems, including the Uighers that the Chinese use to harvest live organs without anaesthetic. Very possible they use Uighers for experimental purposes, just like the Nazis did with the Jews, and probably the North Koreans up to it too. If Pangolins had the virus, they would also be dying like flies coz they are mammals with the same ACE-2 inhibitor. These articles don't prove a thing, except that scientists are either very naive or scared of WW3. I don't believe in "coincidences". Very unlikely that the most deadly virus in modern history evolved within 12km of a Chinese bio-weapon lab by chance.

Yeah, I didn't want to get into a scuffle about it, but that, "reputable science journal" business is just a deflection, with a bit of an elitist shade. I didn't present a video with a couple of know-nothing hacks. Those are two professors of evolutionary biology who are visiting fellows at Princeton (I think I may have mistakenly said Stanford before). When these two people cast doubt on the veracity of peer reviewed journals, and point out the sloppy work too often being found there, I think it's worth consideration.

And quite apropos of the title of this thread, I think we can all be a bit skeptical these days about the reliability of the work product from the current "intelligentsia" (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/arts/academic-journals-hoax.html). ESPECIALLY, when governments as well as the media and academic institutions have lately been displaying a severe propensity toward corruption, propaganda and authoritarianism. Oh, and outright aiding and abetting (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/harvard-professor-charged-hiding-china-ties-68591184).

You bet what China is doing to the Uyghurs is Nazi-level evil. Of course it is. And yes, we should all be very afraid of what they are up to.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Valerie Williams

[Valerie Williams + 129]

17 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Valerie, I believe it is a matter of personal survival versus the survival of our nations. We cannot stay in lockdown forever, not even if a vaccine available in 9 months. The world would go bankrupt and billions would starve to death. Better to invest in testing and contact tracing and "take our medicine", painful as it might be.

I don't disagree. Just maybe don't go 100% devil-may-care. I think the economy is the biggest threat right now.