You first...

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay, here’s a theory....

The rest of the world will be watching events closely in the US in the near future.

The States which are ‘going back to work’ will be in the fishbowl.

If the virus goes on the rampage again, in these States, the world will simply say “we told you so” and continue to look down their noses at those ‘rednecked, uneducated, drugged up Americans’ and start a new round of Trump bashing (even though the responsibility lies with the Governors).

On the other hand, if these States get back to work, and the virus does not stage a comeback, other countries will scramble to lift their lockdowns in an effort to salvage their economies.....while still castigating the US for being reckless.

Face it Yanks, you’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t!

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Ttt

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

42 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The rest of the world will be watching events closely in the US in the near future.

 

Actually, here we watch what the countries around us are doing. 

+++++++++

What's the opposite of of TDS? oilprice.com?

[Ironflimmer + 18]

Here in Europe nobody is looking at the US states. US has not handled this situation very well and is the least desirable to copy.

Most of the European nations are ahead of US on the curve, so it should be US copying other countries, not vice versa.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

54 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Actually, here we watch what the countries around us are doing. 

+++++++++

What's the opposite of of TDS? oilprice.com?

Are the other countries coming of lockdown?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Actually, here we watch what the countries around us are doing. 

+++++++++

What's the opposite of of TDS? oilprice.com?

Then why are you constantly commenting on what is happening in the States and Trump?

Can we get some commentary re what is going on around you?

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

46 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Can we get some commentary re what is going on around you?

 

59 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Are the other countries coming of lockdown?

Most countries are gradually easing lockdown restrictions. Obviously the countries that lockdown first are of course also the first to slowly re-open. 

In Denmark we re-opened kindergardens and 1 - 5 grade Monday. It will be a while before restaurants and hotels re-open I think. 

However, our lockdown is not really lock-down. We have been allowed to leave the house and shop at grocery stores etc. Italy, France and Spain are the only ones that enforced very strict lockdowns I think.

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Then why are you constantly commenting on what is happening in the States and Trump?

Can we get some commentary re what is going on around you?

Does anyone know where OP comes from? To me its a British state which has been colonised by Yanks (used gregariously I love you guys really) - It amazes me that at first glance you would imagine this was a US forum. So with that said all Americans should show some respect as your on Soveriegn British soil, you may get deported.

Its very hard to get a word in edgeways of late especially if you differ from the new norm. 

Is it the peoples front of Judea (PFJ) - Otters Noses anyone - PPFOJ original OP has gone......

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by James Regan

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Does anyone know where OP comes from? To me its a British state which has been colonised by Yanks (used gregariously I love you guys really) - It amazes me that at first glance you would imagine this was a US forum. So with that said all Americans should show some respect as your on Sovereign British soil, you may get deported.

https://oilprice.com/about-us

CONTACT US

If you have any questions about OilPrice.com please use the below contact details:

Sales queries please call Paul Gilbert: +44 7557 340113

[Hotone + 412]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, here’s a theory....

The rest of the world will be watching events closely in the US in the near future.

The States which are ‘going back to work’ will be in the fishbowl.

If the virus goes on the rampage again, in these States, the world will simply say “we told you so” and continue to look down their noses at those ‘rednecked, uneducated, drugged up Americans’ and start a new round of Trump bashing (even though the responsibility lies with the Governors).

On the other hand, if these States get back to work, and the virus does not stage a comeback, other countries will scramble to lift their lockdowns in an effort to salvage their economies.....while still castigating the US for being reckless.

Face it Yanks, you’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t!

 

Here, in the SE Asia region, we look at what is happening in China.  China is Malaysia's largest trading partner and our economic recovery after this pandemic will depend on them.

In fact one of my Indian ex-colleagues has joined a Chinese firm.  They have won a software project here in Malaysia and he is going to recommend me for some work after the lockdown.  I also have friends who are doing brisk business importing and brokering China sourced PPE.  Sure, some people may be annoyed that CV19 came out of China, but you don't bite the hand that feeds you.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Under the previous Prime Minister, many Chinese contracts were cut or curtailed, essentially so you did not sell the country to China.

Isn’t this still a concern? Last week a Chinese survey ship encroached in Malaysian waters.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Hhh

[James Regan + 1,776]

Hearts on sleeves is becoming viral

[Hotone + 412]

19 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Under the previous Prime Minister, many Chinese contracts were cut or curtailed, essentially so you did not sell the country to China.

Isn’t this still a concern? Last week a Chinese survey ship encroached in Malaysian waters.

Not that much of a concern.  The deals were renegotiated to Malaysia's advantage.  As for disputed territorial waters, there have been competing claims between the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia for a long time.  Nothing serious comes out of it until they find immediate commercial benefits to fight over.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Hotone

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

24 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Last week a Chinese survey ship encroached in Malaysian waters.

https://malaysiamilitarypower.blogspot.com/2020/04/malaysian-navy-and-coast-guard-standoff.html

Google translate:

Situation in the South China Sea

This week we see the movement of the USS America (LHA-6) amphibious assault ship with the USS Bunker Hill (CG-52) missile cruiser into Malaysia's exclusive economic zone near the West Capella oil drill vessel owned by Seadrill and contracted for exploration work. by Petronas.

West Capella has been on the new oil field since October last year, prompting China and Vietnam to deploy their patrol vessels to monitor activities around the area.

Increased activity by China coupled with the introduction of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 submarine surveillance vessel is currently carrying out a submarine observation task near West Capella. The Haiyang Dizhi 8 was escorted by more than 10 militia vessels and coastguards and was found to be moving in a straight line, 

suspected of delaying sonar. The same vessel also carried out such activities on Vietnamese waters and sparked tensions between the two coastguards.

With the entry of the USS America and the USS Bunker Hill, it shows Washington is serious about their statements from last week urging Beijing to stop its activities and not bully coastal nations as it appears Beijing is trying to capitalize on the state of the coastal country now plagued by the Covid19 outbreak.

However, the steering of the ship by the American navy this time exposed the obstacles that USN faced. In the unstable regional situation, USN will usually regulate the movement of aircraft carriers to hot spots, but this time it is different because USN is currently tied to four fully operational aircraft carriers while the rest are undergoing long-term repairs, excluding the ship was quarantined as a result of the outbreak.

Increasing maritime activity in the South China Sea is not new and has been ongoing since the outbreak. As China struggled to curb the outbreak of the outbreak, the navy and its coastguard continued active. Even the largest coast guard patrol boat, the CCG5901 was still in our country's EEZ waters when the outbreak struck, and although they did not stir up, it clearly showed activity showing no decrease. The presence of their ships in the waters of Luconia also did not diminish.

We are informed that RMNM assets and APMM are also close to West Capella and also monitor our EEZ environment.

With critical maritime asset constraints, Malaysia has previously faced threats to invading the waterfront using 45-year-old ships and the replacement of previously unassuming new vessels, delayed by governmental changes and continuing to deteriorate as a result of the covid19 outbreak. Malaysia's current diplomatic relations with China are on the lookout as Beijing has not slowed down the 

pressure to ratify the South China Sea and all its islands and sand and coral shelves.

We see the increase of CCG ships and then the presence of the PLAN fleet to our EEZ actually goes a long way in reinforcing their claims to the South China Sea and it is possible that underwater surveys they conduct are two-pronged - commercial and deny the continental shelf claims that have been validated and validated called UNCLOS, and West Capella was the only reason they came here.

The movement of the CCG fleet with survey ships and the USN fleet at this time is likely to trigger an unwanted incident even though the US says they have already interacted and communicated with the CCG ships there with a professional attitude, it does not guarantee that the situation will remain calm.

The United States did not enter because they thought we were an important nation but it was a fact that for a long time, any movement of the Chinese fleet would have been counteracted by the movement of the American fleet. The fact is that the United States does not want to lose its influence on this side of China's deck. China has interests and so does the United States. Malaysia is the only reason for them to act.

The issue of invasion and harassment of naval and foreign coast guards on legal activities within our EEZ is nothing new.

Before China hit the artificial island of the Fiery Cross again, they were disturbing us and clearly, since the beginning of China's increased maritime activity on our EEZ, the old government, the new government and the new government are still being looked at for our country's security and defense.

As we already know, RMN and APMM lack patrol vessels and even existing vessels are much smaller than the largest Chinese coast guard weighing 12 000 tons, twice as large as our frigates and OPVs in the RMN. The change of government days after the GE and then the disruption of the new government policy saw the country's former friends become the enemy of the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister who were so busy with ratifying international law that we did not add salt and turmeric to our wounds long RMN and APMM.

As regional countries strengthen and increase patronage assets, we are politically exposed to disruptive modernization programs, stopped acquisitions and are now in our place - facing two foreign invasion fields in our country's waters with significant asset constraints.

Long ago people were making fun of us, so who are we going to fight with?

Now you are the one who used to mock the government, want the army to take action, but you are the first to deny the military the right to get the proper equipment for a reason - we want to fight with ....

FishFood

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

30 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Last week a Chinese survey ship encroached in Malaysian waters.

https://malaysiamilitarypower.blogspot.com/2020/04/overall-sitrep-malaysia.html

1. The influx of Rohingya Refugees - Malaysian Coast Guard and Royal Malaysian Navy deployed 13 ship and 5 helicopters

2. Vietnamese Fishing Boat Intrusion - Malaysian Coast Guard is struggling to seek and apprehend thousands of fishing boats catching fish illegally in Malaysian waters.

3. Indonesia Illegal workers intrusion in Malacca Straits

4. Indonesian Natuna Pirate hijacking of cargo ships in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia.

5. West Capella incident - Malaysia deploy 4 ships (Navy 2 and Coast Guard 2) , US Navy deploy 3 ships, Australian Navy deploy 1 frigate, China deploy 2 CCG, 1 survey ship, 1 destroyer and 10 militia boat.

6. ESSCOM - Daily attempt by Abu Sayyaf to kidnap and ransom thwarted by Malaysian Security forces

7. F*cking Chinese Long-Range Bomber probing

MMP

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

14 minutes ago, Hotone said:

Not that much of a concern.  The deals were renegotiated to Malaysia's advantage.  As for disputed territorial waters, there have been competing claims between the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia for a long time.  Nothing serious comes out of it until they find immediate commercial benefits to fight over.

Originally these contracts were in favor of the Chinese! They were renegotiated by Mahatir as they would have bankrupt Malaysia and put Malaysia in debt to the Chinese. Another BRI economic handcuffing scheme.

I guess Malaysia spent all that money on French submarines to defend Malaysian waters....but apparently do not care who intrudes now....strange.🤔

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Originally these contracts were in favor of the Chinese! They were renegotiated by Mahatir as they would have bankrupt Malaysia and put Malaysia in debt to the Chinese. Another BRI economic handcuffing scheme.

These contracts were essentially bribes to Najib and cronies.  China bribes corrupt leaders with lopsided contracts, and then seizes control of the foreign assets when the loans are unable to be repaid. 

One Belt, One Road in a nutshell: bribe foreign corrupt leaders to seize control of assets later.

[LiamP + 168]

As above its already started in Europe and elsewhere. Many countries who've gotten on top of the virus are beginning to open up.

Nobody's going yeah-ha party like it's 2019 - anyone doing that will go straight back to day 1 spread rate because there is still virus everywhere. This is too infectious for a Sars1 like disappearance so nobody has eradicated it, but got it under control yes - many nations that acted early enough and effectively have achieved that. It will be a slow and cautious opening to a different society than before with various restrictions and guidelines still in place for the foreseeable future. 

Merkel made a pretty detailed address to her nation. Germany has achieved an Ro just about under 1 meaning if they can keep it that way the virus will remain in decline. But as Merkel says they are walking on thin ice and easily risk increasing spread if they are  not very careful.

Here in Norway we're in a bit better shape. Ro 0.7 average (basically Oslo numbers) but here in Stavanger 0.3 - only a trickle of new cases. We opened up kindergartens and close contact businesses like hairdressers last week and more restrictions lifting next week. We weren't in a full shutdown anyway - able to go out and many things still open including bars and restaurants if 1m personal distance could be achieved.

Too early to see any increase in infections in the data - need a couple more weeks for that if it will occur. We will be playing whack-a-mole for some time to come I suspect but I believe we can keep it at bay here as the South Koreans and others in Asia Pacific region are managing.

I wish other countries including you Yanks good luck. You aren't even nearly ready to open up in some areas but in very many places you are, and arguably have been for a while, so I hope it all goes well, as much as some people will be hoping for and expecting a morbid spectacle.

Edited April 25, 2020 by LiamP

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Most countries are gradually easing lockdown restrictions. Obviously the countries that lockdown first are of course also the first to slowly re-open. 

In Denmark we re-opened kindergardens and 1 - 5 grade Monday. It will be a while before restaurants and hotels re-open I think. 

However, our lockdown is not really lock-down. We have been allowed to leave the house and shop at grocery stores etc. Italy, France and Spain are the only ones that enforced very strict lockdowns I think.

And how the UK and Southern Europe are jealous of you and Liam (in Norway). Of course, I noticed that Scandihoovians liked to stay two meters away from each other anyway - even on the tram.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Ironflimmer said:

Here in Europe nobody is looking at the US states. US has not handled this situation very well and is the least desirable to copy.

Most of the European nations are ahead of US on the curve, so it should be US copying other countries, not vice versa.

We have lost fewer lives than Western Europe per population equivalent. Only Germany stands out with lower mortality. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Actually, here we watch what the countries around us are doing. 

+++++++++

What's the opposite of of TDS? oilprice.com?

A pretty petty and inaccurate analogy. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

14 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Actually, here we watch what the countries around us are doing. 

+++++++++

What's the opposite of of TDS? oilprice.com?

Actually, I know that some of the Oil Price staff (the people who actually write the Oil Price news articles) are not exactly fans of Orange Man. 

My comments here on the forum prolly rankles some of the staff, but no one on the staff has ever editorialized / redacted / interfered with anything I've ever said here.   On this forum, not many topics are off limits, so long as people play nice with others.

Just because I happen to be vocally pro-oil / pro-U.S. / pro-Trump doesn't mean that others here can't freely and vocally be anti-oil / anti-U.S. / anti-Trump.  Go for it.

Other moderators also strongly *encourage* dissent and Freedom of Speech - both of which seem to be eroding more and more pretty much everywhere.

[Hotone + 412]

7 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

These contracts were essentially bribes to Najib and cronies.  China bribes corrupt leaders with lopsided contracts, and then seizes control of the foreign assets when the loans are unable to be repaid. 

One Belt, One Road in a nutshell: bribe foreign corrupt leaders to seize control of assets later.

You are right about bribing Najib.  You should understand that Malaysia is a kleptocracy.  Some people have found ways of stealing money from the poor even during these trying times: 

https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/522495

China has a governance problem when they do business outside their country. The Chinese are (were?) quite relaxed about corruption in other countries. 

When I worked for a few European MNCs, most of them will pay bribes in this (SE Asia) region.  Siemens used to have a slush fund a long time ago, some of which were used to pay bribes particularly in Indonesia.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/may/27/technology.europe

With regards BRI, the general goal is the provision of economic infrastructure worth at least $1 trillion to improve the land and sea routes between Asia, Africa, and Europe. In order to attract additional international investments to finance the initiative, China even created a multilateral bank – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) — in 2015. However, China’s ambitious BRI strategy has met considerable criticism from politicians and policy-makers, journalists, analysts, and scholars. These criticisms include accusations of pursuing debt-trap diplomacy to gain concessions from countries participating in BRI. The decision of Sri Lanka in 2018 to lease Hambantota port to China in order to reduce its BRI debt burden is often cited as a prime example. Together with growing Chinese military strength and assertiveness in the South and East China Seas, BRI is being framed as an instrument deployed by China to build up its global dominance.

However, at least in the case of Asia, the fear of China gaining unrestricted control over other countries through BRI is unfounded when looking at Japan’s provisions of infrastructure through its Official Development Assistance (ODA) since 1954. China´s BRI does not differ much from Japan’s ODA. Moreover, in a manner similar to China, Japan was harshly criticized by the international community for its ODA approach, which substantially differed from those of other OECD countries. The targets of criticisms were three distinct characteristics of ODA that could be found in China´s BRI as well: the assistance provided was mainly financed through loans that required repayment; the loans were tied to Japanese goods and services; and domestic socioeconomic and political conditions in recipient countries were neglected.

Initially, Japan did not dedicate much attention to the economic and social impacts of its ODA. Its approach considered only its own economic benefit. Disregarding the recipients’ circumstances, Japan´s ODA contributed to corruption, debt and controversial expropriations for large-scale infrastructure projects. The economic penetration of Japan in Southeast Asia triggered large anti-Japanese riots. The perception of Japan as an economic imperialist ruthlessly exploiting the region sparked violent protests across Southeast Asia in 1974. The strong anti-Japanese sentiments quickly led the country to adopt the Fukuda Doctrine, promising heart-to-heart partnerships based on mutual trust. Following the doctrine, Japan began acknowledging the particular needs of recipient countries, while initiating the process of untying ODA from its own goods and services.

Japan was compelled to include the recipients’ interests in its policies in order to avoid growing mistrust and criticism against its ODA, which was perceived as being motivated by selfish national interests rather than philanthropic or public good sentiments. Japan´s economy was largely dependent on the success of ODA, which fulfilled several important tasks. ODA secured natural resources Japan was lacking, simultaneously creating production sites in countries with cheaper labor and strengthening economies, which then increased the purchasing power, demand and market for Japan-made goods. One has to bear in mind that China’s BRI strategies primarily advance the country’s own economic development, which plays an important role in the Communist Party´s political legitimization. With the era of Chinese high economic growth ending, the enormous domestic demand in the construction and machinery sectors is decreasing. BRI may help China in this economic transition, creating opportunities to export the overcapacity in those sectors to other countries. The infrastructure promoted by BRI also sets the groundwork for exporting some of the manufacturing sites due to growing labor costs in China. Moreover, being a country that relies heavily on exports, there is a great economic incentive to increase purchasing power in other countries, even more against the backdrop of the intensifying trade friction with the United States which has led to tariffs on Chinese products exported to the United States.

Due to the centrality of BRI for its economy, China cannot afford to ignore the increasing number of problems and criticisms related to its implementation. For example, the Myitsone dam project in Myanmar that China has been pushing is on hold because of environmental and social concerns. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir canceled a railway and two gas pipeline projects over concerns about the terms. Even Pakistan, formally a devoted BRI partner and close political and security partner of China is currently reviewing its cooperation with Beijing. Like Japan in the 1970s, China is in the process of making several concessions indicating its willingness to take more responsibility for the economic, social and environmental impacts of its assistance, thus answering to the external pressures demanding that the country address the recipients’ interests. In the past, many countries in Asia did not have alternatives other than solutions offered by China to satisfy a great demand for infrastructural development. In the early 2010s, China was a pioneer in offering quick, affordable and un-bureaucratic infrastructure. However, the circumstances are changing. Many countries and multilateral organizations are now responding to the demands for infrastructure, providing a growing number of competing alternatives to China’s BRI. In this new competitive environment, China is being pushed to be more responsive to concerns of BRI recipient countries.

Without a doubt, BRI is a massive project with a global impact. For a new player in the field of development assistance, project failures — such as cost miscalculation because of poorly conducted feasibility studies — could be considered a matter of course. However, the margin to utilize BRI as a coercion tool is rather small, as China´s economy depends on its positive reception and success. Thus, the argument that China is using assistance deliberately causing large debts to aggressively increase its influence in Asia is questionable, as it would cause irreparable damage to the reputation of BRI. The history of Japan´s ODA teaches that China will continuously adapt its BRI practices to meet the needs of its partners; ultimately with the aim of helping itself.

- plagiarized from Raymond Yamamoto, Assistant Professor at Aarhus University in Denmark

Edited April 25, 2020 by Hotone

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 minute ago, Hotone said:

You are right about bribing Najib. 

Dr Mahathir _ Petronas Interview 2016 _ Tom Kirkman.pdf

 

[Ironflimmer + 18]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

We have lost fewer lives than Western Europe per population equivalent. Only Germany stands out with lower mortality. 

Well, if Europe only consisted of 7 countries (Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands and Germany) you would be absolutely correct.

However, Europe has some 20 countries more than the above mentioned 7 and therefore your remark seems somewhat ignorant. Also Belgium, Spain, Italy, Germany and Netherlands are on the flat end of the curve now, where US is still climbing higher and is nowhere near the top yet, so US could easily surpass the figures of all the before-mentioned European countries, except UK which Prime Minister has handled the Corona treat just as poorly as Brasilian President or US President.

My best guess is that sooner or later US will have the highest mortality rate of all nations - but still competing with the UK for 1st place.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Western Europe is obviously not all of Europe. It seems ignorant that you would not know that. 

Your lack of analysis is based on guesswork and a basic error.

Edited April 25, 2020 by ronwagn