You first...

[Meredith Poor + 894]

13 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, here’s a theory....

The rest of the world will be watching events closely in the US in the near future.

The States which are ‘going back to work’ will be in the fishbowl.

If the virus goes on the rampage again, in these States, the world will simply say “we told you so” and continue to look down their noses at those ‘rednecked, uneducated, drugged up Americans’ and start a new round of Trump bashing (even though the responsibility lies with the Governors).

On the other hand, if these States get back to work, and the virus does not stage a comeback, other countries will scramble to lift their lockdowns in an effort to salvage their economies.....while still castigating the US for being reckless.

Face it Yanks, you’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t!

 

And if a bunch of people get sick but don't overload the health care system, then we build 'herd immunity' at relatively low cost. The three issues, by order of importance: fatalities, permanent disabilities, and stressed medical facilities. Fatalities are usually people with 'underlying medical conditions', so these people need special protection. We should avoid 'mass gatherings' such as sports events, full theaters, or full churches. A lot of the time these days theaters have sparse attendance, so this isn't a big deal.

Schools are an interesting problem. A 'full' classroom is a situation looking for trouble. Perhaps students should attend on alternate days - half video and half physical attendance. Also, avoid phys ed and singing, or anything else that leads to heavy breathing with a lot of people in proximity.

[Ironflimmer + 18]

12 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Western Europe has a definition. It is not Europe. It seems ignorant that you would not notice know that. 

1	United Kingdom	66,040,229	English	London
2	France (metropolitan)	65,058,000	French	Paris
3	Spain	46,700,000	Spanish	Madrid
4	Netherlands	17,249,632	Dutch, Frisian	Amsterdam
5	Belgium	11,420,163	Dutch, French	Brussels
6	Portugal	10,291,027	Portuguese	Lisbon
7	Ireland	4,857,000	Irish, English	Dublin
8	Luxembourg	602,005	French, Luxembourgish and German	Luxembourg City
9	Andorra	78,264	Catalan	Andorra la Vella
10	Monaco	38,300	French	Monaco (city-state)
Total		222,293,922

 This population is very close to that of the United States. 

My analysis is based on fact. Your lack of analysis is based on guesswork and a basic error.

Oh, I am sorry. I have lived in Europe all my life and there are multiple definitions of Western Europe. However, I suppose you don't live here, so you are excused to not know that.

Just call me ignorant. But you're missing a lot of European states and you compare 222 mio pop and says that is close to 330 mio population. It is not close in my book. It's 50% more.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Ironflimmer
spelling error

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Add Italy, Austria, and Switzerland. That is my definition of Western Europe. That includes all of the most popular countries that Americans visit. Eastern Europe is considered another area as is Greece, and usually the United Kingdom. 

By any analysis the United States has a lower mortality rate than Western Europe as I said. American and Western European mortality rates are both, unfortunately rising. We will see who is correct in the long run. Part of the data will depend on which deaths are attributed to covid 19 versus the comorbidities. 

 

[Marcin2 + 725]

12 hours ago, Ironflimmer said:

Here in Europe nobody is looking at the US states. US has not handled this situation very well and is the least desirable to copy.

Most of the European nations are ahead of US on the curve, so it should be US copying other countries, not vice versa.

To know how to react you look countries which are further ahead on the curve (East Asia, who else ?). There is a lot of to learn what is the reaction of epidemic intensity if the preventive measures are relaxed in that countries.

[James Regan + 1,776]

For the want of not sounding thick what does TDS mean? In this context..

[Marcin2 + 725]

9 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

These contracts were essentially bribes to Najib and cronies.  China bribes corrupt leaders with lopsided contracts, and then seizes control of the foreign assets when the loans are unable to be repaid.

There are probably angels that do not make use of such situations, I am still to meet one.

[James Regan + 1,776]

30 minutes ago, Ironflimmer said:

Oh, I am sorry. I have lived in Europe all my life and there are multiple definitions of Western Europe. However, I suppose you don't live here, so you are excused to not know that.

Just call me ignorant. But you're missing a lot of European states and you compare 222 mio pop and says that is close to 330 mio population. It is not close in my book. It's 50% more.

Why is there so much anger or tension in mainly newbies posts, whats happening have the lunatics been let out of the asylum. Many newcomers and all welcome but there is a definite wave of newbies with attitude, if your just here and found us due to being in lock down this is not the place to being quick off the mark. This is not a misunderstanding its rife with new members, please show modicum of decorum when posting, its more enjoyable for all I promise you. This random sample is one of many from various so don't take it personal Ironflimmer.

 

Respectfully

[Marcin2 + 725]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We have lost fewer lives than Western Europe per population equivalent. Only Germany stands out with lower mortality. 

As I was reminded a lot of times that US is a conglomerate of states. New York is at the top spot in per capita mortality together with Lombardy and San Marino (each at about 0.1% of population). New Yoork has the best potential to be clear frontrunner cause earlier on the epidemic curve.

This is a cause of a lot of sorrow, grief and empathy everywhere around the world, just the numbers to present to be precise.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Increased activity by China coupled with the introduction of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 submarine surveillance vessel is currently carrying out a submarine observation task near West Capella. The Haiyang Dizhi 8 was escorted by more than 10 militia vessels and coastguards and was found to be moving in a straight line, 

 

The Chinese are obviously reading an evaporation of exports in the near future, and thus not enough forex income to pay for oil and NG supply to compensate for reduced land and labor productivity in agriculture and the new preference for car travel over public transport and even ride sharing so as to avoid high transmission conditions on public transport. 

They are desperate to find any resources existing in the S China sea and secure control over them. 

Note that Indonesian pirates are already plying the sea lane in Malaysia. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

2 hours ago, Hotone said:

China even created a multilateral bank – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) — in 2015. However, China’s ambitious BRI strategy has met considerable criticism from politicians and policy-makers, journalists, analysts, and scholars. These criticisms include accusations of pursuing debt-trap diplomacy to gain concessions from countries participating in BRI.

 One has to bear in mind that China’s BRI strategies primarily advance the country’s own economic development, which plays an important role in the Communist Party´s political legitimization.

Without a doubt, BRI is a massive project with a global impact. For a new player in the field of development assistance, project failures — such as cost miscalculation because of poorly conducted feasibility studies — could be considered a matter of course. However, the margin to utilize BRI as a coercion tool is rather small, as China´s economy depends on its positive reception and success. Thus, the argument that China is using assistance deliberately causing large debts to aggressively increase its influence in Asia is questionable, as it would cause irreparable damage to the reputation of BRI.

But for the elders and other top echelon of CCP Xi Jinping policies were too bold at the beginning. He questioned Deng low-profile posture. During his first 3 years of the reign: AIICB, BRI, China 2025 and apart from this busy domestic agenda: fast pace of PLA reform & upgrade, anti-corruption. For US it was a bold provocation, way to much to bear. Never the less China was too strong for low-profile.

From the perspective of 5 years we can say that it had a lot of positive and negative consequences. The main negative is the technology and broader economic conflict with the United States, well a new Cold War but this time it is US that isolates itself.

On positive side it made inroads to change human perception about China, globally. Nobody knew about Huawei or that China can be part of bipolar world as more or less equal partner of US. Even before COVID-19 when window of opportunity seemed to close, it was obvious that global point of gravity moved to Beijing. SE Asia, Japan, Korean, EU, Russian accomodation or even panic reactions, arms race: this is the symptom of the changing world.

[0R0 + 6,251]

44 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

And if a bunch of people get sick but don't overload the health care system, then we build 'herd immunity' at relatively low cost. The three issues, by order of importance: fatalities, permanent disabilities, and stressed medical facilities. Fatalities are usually people with 'underlying medical conditions', so these people need special protection. We should avoid 'mass gatherings' such as sports events, full theaters, or full churches. A lot of the time these days theaters have sparse attendance, so this isn't a big deal.

Schools are an interesting problem. A 'full' classroom is a situation looking for trouble. Perhaps students should attend on alternate days - half video and half physical attendance. Also, avoid phys ed and singing, or anything else that leads to heavy breathing with a lot of people in proximity.

It is exactly the children and their parents that make up the high transmission demographic, which is also the least affected by the acquisition of the infection.. It is precisely there the herd immunity acts as a block for propagation of further waves of outbreaks. So we need to promote their infection while protecting the high risk population from contact with them. Not restrict the general spread with distancing and low density. 

If we do not want to take the risks inherent in obtaining herd immunity quickly, then we would need to maintain a degree of PPE use in public places and particularly public transport and mass gatherings. Have them at lower density/packing, not prevent them altogether. As city schoolchildren are suspected of having high infection prevalence already, and high resistance, then we have little reason to keep them in any form of quarantine against each other. That is not so among their teachers, where many are too old and carry the common comorbidities of CV19 deaths. There we need to have an effort in staffing till the live virus tests for students show a low probability of infection. . 

[Ironflimmer + 18]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Add Italy, Austria, and Switzerland. That is my definition of Western Europe. That includes all of the most popular countries that Americans visit. Eastern Europe is considered another area as is Greece, and usually the United Kingdom. 

By any analysis the United States has a lower mortality rate than Western Europe as I said. American and Western European mortality rates are both, unfortunately rising. We will see who is correct in the long run. Part of the data will depend on which deaths are attributed to covid 19 versus the comorbidities. 

 

Whatever the definition of Western Europe, yes UK and US are unfortunately on the rise in mortality rates. The other before-mentioned countries seem to have peaked.

[Ironflimmer + 18]

51 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Why is there so much anger or tension in mainly newbies posts, whats happening have the lunatics been let out of the asylum. Many newcomers and all welcome but there is a definite wave of newbies with attitude, if your just here and found us due to being in lock down this is not the place to being quick off the mark. This is not a misunderstanding its rife with new members, please show modicum of decorum when posting, its more enjoyable for all I promise you. This random sample is one of many from various so don't take it personal Ironflimmer.

 

Respectfully

No offense taken - you just called me a lunatic. And before that, I was called an ignorant.

So what kind of forum is this exactly?

Regards,

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, Ironflimmer said:

My best guess is that sooner or later US will have the highest mortality rate of all nations - but still competing with the UK for 1st place.

The UK has been hit far worse than the US. The big growth in cases here happened at the same time as the US (2-3 weeks after Italy and 1-2 weeks after Spain and France), but the UK has about twice the number of deaths per capita as the US.

The French numbers include deaths outside of hospitals as well as hospital deaths, so their numbers aren't as bad as they seem. The financial times shows this in a useful way.  https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

For the rest of this wave, I'd expect the UK to remain the worst and France to drop down the table when more accurate numbers are available. We're waiting for the daily US and UK counts to start dropping to estimate what the toll will be. So far they've plateaued and held steady.

But this is just the first wave. Epidemiologists expect a second and possibly third wave. Governments will likely fall based on how they managed the crisis. Merkel, as almost always, comes out being the trusted, steady hand. Johnson will be lucky to escape crucifixion by his own party and I can't see him leading the country through a second wave.

[0R0 + 6,251]

9 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

2 hours ago, Hotone said:

China even created a multilateral bank – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) — in 2015. However, China’s ambitious BRI strategy has met considerable criticism from politicians and policy-makers, journalists, analysts, and scholars. These criticisms include accusations of pursuing debt-trap diplomacy to gain concessions from countries participating in BRI.

 One has to bear in mind that China’s BRI strategies primarily advance the country’s own economic development, which plays an important role in the Communist Party´s political legitimization.

Without a doubt, BRI is a massive project with a global impact. For a new player in the field of development assistance, project failures — such as cost miscalculation because of poorly conducted feasibility studies — could be considered a matter of course. However, the margin to utilize BRI as a coercion tool is rather small, as China´s economy depends on its positive reception and success. Thus, the argument that China is using assistance deliberately causing large debts to aggressively increase its influence in Asia is questionable, as it would cause irreparable damage to the reputation of BRI.

But for the elders and other top echelon of CCP Xi Jinping policies were too bold at the beginning. He questioned Deng low-profile posture. During his first 3 years of the reign: AIICB, BRI, China 2025 and apart from this busy domestic agenda: fast pace of PLA reform & upgrade, anti-corruption. For US it was a bold provocation, way to much to bear. Never the less China was too strong for low-profile.

From the perspective of 5 years we can say that it had a lot of positive and negative consequences. The main negative is the technology and broader economic conflict with the United States, well a new Cold War but this time it is US that isolates itself.

On positive side it made inroads to change human perception about China, globally. Nobody knew about Huawei or that China can be part of bipolar world as more or less equal partner of US. Even before COVID-19 when window of opportunity seemed to close, it was obvious that global point of gravity moved to Beijing. SE Asia, Japan, Korean, EU, Russian accomodation or even panic reactions, arms race: this is the symptom of the changing world.

First, the BRI only incidentally pushes through the positive relationships @hotone is thinking of. The contracts are uniformly inflated, employ Chinese rather than locals, and produce losses, with few exceptions. They are predominantly a boondoggle to pay off well connected Chinese, provide Chinese jobs, consume lots of excess Chinese cement and steel, and only marginally anything else. They are entirely of a kind to Chinese public infrastructure projects. Their actual benefit is irrelevant, the main benefit is to create employment and thus demand in China. 

 

Second, as pointed out by others here, Chinese technology leadership is composed of monopolies in Cesium mining for 5G components, and Lithium mining and refining for EVs. Their AI work is less than the kind you do at an Indian call center as far as its level of sophistication. It uses the relatively cheap well educated labor to do things that are actually simpler than carrying baggage for train passengers.  Only that it is done in front of a computer screen. 

China is not creating a bipolar world, it is creating a sinkhole into which it will disappear. ALL of the world's major economies BUT FOR the US, have already embarked on programs to extract their producers out of China. Nobody cares what they do for the China market, but they will not be able to export to EU Japan Korea, likely Taiwan, Australia, UK, India, and soon enough UK and USA will have explicit extraction plans. 

Contrary to your thinking that Xi was late to the game and it was Deng who misread the situation, I think that Deng understood that the Chinese economy did not yet have the excess it needed to be able to take on an imperial role, not to speak of a hegemonic role. Xi mistook statistics for economics and bit off more than he could chew. He misdirected resources ever more to support the state sector and provincial infrastructure to the point of choking off credit to the private economy which he also infiltrated with CCP committees in each company of 40 or more employees. Thus removing value production from them and diverting their investment to CCP purposes that have no economic value. 

The China @Marcin is talking about was the China before Xi. Till 2012,  It was showing miraculous levels of growth, incredible advancement, and then changed stepwise into a SOE and Government project economy with declining margins and private investment as proportion of output other than real estate. as @SUZNV pointed out, people seek positions in government and SOE hierarchies rather than actual entrepreneurship, discovery and invention. 

Xi cooked his goose a decade ago. He is now at risk of imposing a self isolation on China because of the need to stop the penetration into the Chinese public of the near universal condemnation of him personally, his party, government and country.. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

And if a bunch of people get sick but don't overload the health care system, then we build 'herd immunity' at relatively low cost. The three issues, by order of importance: fatalities, permanent disabilities, and stressed medical facilities. Fatalities are usually people with 'underlying medical conditions', so these people need special protection. We should avoid 'mass gatherings' such as sports events, full theaters, or full churches. A lot of the time these days theaters have sparse attendance, so this isn't a big deal.

Schools are an interesting problem. A 'full' classroom is a situation looking for trouble. Perhaps students should attend on alternate days - half video and half physical attendance. Also, avoid phys ed and singing, or anything else that leads to heavy breathing with a lot of people in proximity.

@Tom Kirkman Could you provide a link to the other threat which linked to The Hill's article on the statistics?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

@Tom Kirkman Could you provide a link to the other threat which linked to The Hill's article on the statistics?

Not sure which thread it is ...

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Here it is:

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.  

In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. 

Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

 

[Marcin2 + 725]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

and the new preference for car travel over public transport and even ride sharing so as to avoid high transmission conditions on public transport.

This preference is not the real choice. From certain size of the city (3-5 million people urban core ?), public transport in the form of high capacity metro is the only option. In the United States the only such city is New York, to some extent also Chicago. United States just do not have big cities (only New York as mentioned).

In Europe this is Paris, London, Moscow.

Whereas China has 20 such big cities. During morning rush hours 1 million people per hours ride Beijing and Shanghai Metro.

You would need major communication arteries with 30 lanes to cope with this mass of people. No can do.

The widest I drove myself was in San Diego, I think it had 16 lanes or so and I felt really uncomfortable, but admit US drivers are good, like ants, 3 meters distance between cars, 50 miles per hour, insane.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Ironflimmer said:

No offense taken - you just called me a lunatic. And before that, I was called an ignorant.

So what kind of forum is this exactly?

Regards,

@James Regan perhaps Ironflimmer was looking for room 12A, next door.

========================

M: Yes, but I came here for an argument!!

A: OH! Oh! I'm sorry! This is abuse!

M: Oh! Oh I see!

A: Aha! No, you want room 12A, next door.

M: Oh...Sorry...

A: Not at all!

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

This preference is not the real choice. From certain size of the city (3-5 million people urban core ?), public transport in the form of high capacity metro is the only option. In the United States the only such city is New York, to some extent also Chicago. United States just do not have big cities (only New York as mentioned).

In Europe this is Paris, London, Moscow.

Whereas China has 20 such big cities. During morning rush hours 1 million people per hours ride Beijing and Shanghai Metro.

You would need major communication arteries with 30 lanes to cope with this mass of people. No can do.

I think this is going to be expressed in a move to smaller inland cities. I just don't know how they get business to follow. But the worker's preference is extremely clear. They want off the subways. They cleaned out the used car dealer inventories across China in an instant earlier last month. 

Yes, NYC does not run without subways. It is among the densest populations in the world, worse than Shanghai. I understand the Chinese panic stage when they realized they might need to quarantine Shanghai even if only a few cases make it into the city, so they traced people that came in from Wuhan and quarantined them - as in can't leave the apartment since they locked you in. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

17 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If the virus goes on the rampage again, in these States, the world will simply say “we told you so” and continue to look down their noses at those ‘rednecked, uneducated, drugged up Americans’ and start a new round of Trump bashing (even though the responsibility lies with the Governors).

When they say "flatten the curve", it means to spread the virus (or strains of the virus) slower.   Until the immune system of the society at large is exposed, we will see people still get it.  Eventually, a large portion of the population has had it or will get it.  It looks like there are various strains. 

The shelter in place with all these "don't get germs procedures" actually does more harm than good. 

This is a good article on what to expect.  The Bill "Gates Notes" are scary as hell.. ..Mr. Evil.

https://steemit.com/news/@corbettreport/predictions-what-will-happen-next-in-the-corona-crisis

[Marcin2 + 725]

25 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I think this is going to be expressed in a move to smaller inland cities. I just don't know how they get business to follow. But the worker's preference is extremely clear. They want off the subways. They cleaned out the used car dealer inventories across China in an instant earlier last month. 

Yes, NYC does not run without subways. It is among the densest populations in the world, worse than Shanghai. I understand the Chinese panic stage when they realized they might need to quarantine Shanghai even if only a few cases make it into the city, so they traced people that came in from Wuhan and quarantined them - as in can't leave the apartment since they locked you in. 

The larger the city, the richer on per capita basis. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzen, Guangdong the richest in China. Maybe the flow from rural areas to cities among them big cities will slow from 20 million people annually for 1-2 years cause the would be problems with job, but I do not think the flow would reverse.

 

The density of urban core. New York City is just downtown New York metro area with 11 thousand people per sq km. Downtown Shanghai is about 25 thousand people per sq km (like Manhattan), outer borroughs are less dense with 5 thousand people per sq km.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

And if a bunch of people get sick but don't overload the health care system, then we build 'herd immunity' at relatively low cost. The three issues, by order of importance: fatalities, permanent disabilities, and stressed medical facilities. Fatalities are usually people with 'underlying medical conditions', so these people need special protection. We should avoid 'mass gatherings' such as sports events, full theaters, or full churches. A lot of the time these days theaters have sparse attendance, so this isn't a big deal.

Schools are an interesting problem. A 'full' classroom is a situation looking for trouble. Perhaps students should attend on alternate days - half video and half physical attendance. Also, avoid phys ed and singing, or anything else that leads to heavy breathing with a lot of people in proximity.

But for how long? Is this the new normal?

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

The larger the city, the richer on per capita basis. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzen, Guangdong the richest in China. Maybe the flow from rural areas to cities among them big cities will slow from 20 million people annually for 1-2 years cause the would be problems with job, but I do not think the flow would reverse.

 

The density of urban core. New York City is just downtown New York metro area with 11 thousand people per sq km. Downtown Shanghai is about 25 thousand people per sq km (like Manhattan), outer borroughs are less dense with 5 thousand people per sq km.

New Jersey is just as dense across the Hudson. 

Unlike China that had just the one modern era baby boom, the US has had a number of them. The Millennial boom, like its predecessor GIs and boomers will marry, have kids, buy a car, move out of town. That left the central city residential areas barren and much of the consumer activity gone. Many took their jobs with them into the suburban ring's office buildings. But Millennials soon showed up this cycle to fill in the void the way the much smaller predecessor Gen X didn't manage, or in the prior cycle the small Beat generation couldn't. 

The US suburbia keeps increasing, now 55% of the population. The center city residential areas are majority non-white. The black middle class has started migrating out to the suburbs as well. With the current experience, the outbound motion will continue and suburban sprawl will spread. This time, however, there will be a strong subsidy for rural broadband communications and it will take the Millennials further out with it. The  start of it will be the payout to rural mobile com companies for pulling out their Huawei equipment as per the FCC order. 

Many more business operations will turn out of their city offices, leaving behind only the skeleton financial crew and the marketing people. Downtown jobs will die, leaving the cultural people alone. Kevin O'Leary gave an uncharacteristic inside view to his plethora of businesses responding to the pandemic. He noted an increase in the number of worker hours available due to the lack of commutes, a rise in worker productivity (vs. the predicted loss) and thus decisions his managements have made to downsize office space use by 1/3 to 1/2 and relocation to cheaper areas outside city centers. City real estate is becoming a dangerous investment asset.