Corona Virus Truths

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

An interesting read:

https://coronavirustruths.godaddysites.com/

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Excellent read.

Excerpt and bullet point summary below, although I highly recommend reading the entire article.

 

The Truth (and Lies) about Coronavirus

Primary Author: David Williams, MD 

Revised April 23 with updates to section regarding COVID-19 deaths and the addendum.

This is being written on April 19, 2020. Although there is a central author, it is being written on behalf of multiple physicians in West Alabama and will be distributed through multiple medical offices. Between us we have well over a hundred years of practice and have treated hundreds of thousands of patients suffering infectious diseases. Including mission trips we have treated patients on five continents. We planned this date for several reasons. First, most of our patients now realize there is something “funny” about the coverage and handling of this disease. Secondly, if it wasn’t being handled differently by April 19, we knew it would take action from us and our patients to change that handling. Finally, we were told in March by our state officials that experts predicted New York, Florida, Texas, and Alabama were projected to have the median most fatalities from the COVID-19 outbreak with the peak in Alabama expected to be April 19. On this date, Alabama was supposed to be on pace for 5,516 deaths and be short over 21,000 hospital beds. The information just listed, and every piece of information discussed below, can be verified with a quick internet search. Many of the sources will be directly referenced. So here goes:

TRUTH: COVID-19 is an actual medical disease that will lead to tragic deaths.  Although this seems obvious, it should be clear that no one involved wishes to express anything but sympathy to those affected and their families. Respiratory failure is a terrible way to die. That is true if that death is due to asthma, COPD, pneumonia, influenza, smoke inhalation, cystic fibrosis, ALS, or COVID-19.

LIE: We don’t know much about coronavirus. This is one of the media’s favorite lies. It is much scarier if it is unknown. We know that coronavirus is a zoonotic disease. In other words, it’s natural hosts are birds and animals as opposed to humans. We vaccinate domestic animals for them. We know that four forms cause colds every year. We know it mutates and evolves just like the flu. We know it sometimes becomes deadly as it has in SARS and MERS. We have done medical studies on coronavirus as a coexisting illness in patients in the past.

LIE: COVID-19 is more infectious than influenza. This is one of two lies most often quoted by the millions who call national radio programs or post on social media.  ...

LIE: COVID-19 is more dangerous than influenza. The second lie of the medically uninformed. Even among those who do contract COVID-19, most under 60, including virtually everyone under 21, will never know they had it.  ...

LIE: The fact one doesn’t know he or she has COVID-19 makes it more dangerous. All viruses shed and are primarily spread while the infected host is asymptomatic. Repeat, all viruses do this.  ...

TRUTH: COVID-19 is more dangerous to the elderly and immunocompromised.

TRUTH: That doesn’t really mean anything in and of itself because everything is more dangerous to those unfortunate individuals. It does mean we should try to protect those individuals from infections in general.

TRUTH: It is now almost impossible for anyone in the general public or general medical community to know the actual number of deaths from COVID-19. That is because sometime in March US hospitals started testing all ER patients and every patient who died, regardless of cause of death, for COVID-19. Those patients are being included by the media in COVID-19 death tolls. Yes, a victim of a car accident brought to a US ER who passes away will be tested for COVID-19.  ...

REVISED April 23, 2020. This is actually much worse than we thought. According to worldometers.info from January 1 to April 1, 2020 the worldwide deaths from COVID-19 were 46,438 as opposed to 121,993 for influenza. To recap, during the same three months, with the same social distancing, the same shelter in place, and even handicapped with a vaccine against it, the flu still killed more than two and a half times as many people as COVID-19. In terms of deciding to shut down the economy, there were 11 causes of death on the list.  Influenza and COVID-19 were ranked a distant 10th and 11th. On March 23, 2020, a Vox.com article by Dylan Scott outlined COVID-19 risks by age group. CDC figures cited a death rate of 2.7 percent for those 65 to 74, 4.3 percent for those 75 to 84, and 10.4 percent for those 85 and over.

How does a virus that killed 46,438 globally in three months (and which about 96% of those 75 to 84, and 90% of those 85 and older survive) suddenly kill 143,984 in the next three weeks, according the same worldometers.info?   ...

TRUTH: The current policies instituted by our local, state, and national governments are causing greater health problems than the virus ever will. According to the Wall Street Journal, 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment in just four weeks. When you consider spouses and children, it seems reasonable that up to 70 million Americans would be affected by that number. Staying at home is not without consequence.  ...

TRUTH: The media as a whole has grossly misrepresented this disease. We felt if we used the word “deliberately” we may have to present this as an opinion, but it sure appears deliberate.   ...

OPINION: The way in which the media has pushed fear nonstop amounts to psychological warfare against this country. If it hasn’t occurred to you that we have heard one story and essentially one story alone for literally two months, well, that should have aroused suspicion.

TRUTH: The media will continue to fight reopening of this country by stating “experts” predict a spike in deaths if we do so. We would assume those are the same experts who initially predicted 2.2 million US deaths, revised to 200,000, then 100,000, then 60,000, then ordered testing all US deaths just in case they had coronavirus because we weren’t on pace for even 30,000 prior to that change in policy.

TRUTH: Not every country has shut down their economy, and none of those countries have suffered higher rates of death because they have kept their economy going. One of the searches done prior to putting this together related to countries who kept their businesses open. One of the lowest mortality rates in the entire world is Japan, who fits that description.  ...

OPINION: Medical organizations have failed this country. Literally every doctor in America should know everything listed above. So why haven’t organizations like the AMA and AAFP, as well as state organizations, presented this information to their governors and the President?

TRUTH: China is involved, but not how you think. We can not tell you how many times people have expressed consternation about not knowing what China is hiding. Generally, they feel it is horrific death numbers or the genesis story of the virus. China withheld information about the virulence of COVID-19. They knew they had cases of asymptomatic individuals, possibly hundreds of thousands such patients. By not including this data it changed the mortality rate greatly.  ...

TRUTH: The NBA cancelled their season voluntarily, with no external domestic pressures, and China is a huge market for them. Their financial interests in China were threatened after a single tweet from Houston GM Daryl Morey in October supporting Hong Kong protestors.   ...

TRUTH: People are lazy, or they have an agenda. Not only did the media not ask pertinent questions about the NBA, they have not reached out to knowledgeable health professionals even when they were provided the names and contacts of such individuals. If the narrative did not fit COVID-19 terror, it was ignored. We know this has happened both locally and nationally. Local, state, and national politicians have done the same thing.   ...

TRUTH: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is making a fortune, and he wants you to stay home. In addition to owning Amazon, he owns the Washington Post. Just read any headline or article it has ever written regarding a plan to reopen the economy. Do with that information what you will, but we hope it means you stop ordering from Amazon and support local businesses instead.

TRUTH: COVID-19 has been treated like a world-ender; it’s not even remotely close.  As mentioned earlier, it has infected just over 2 million people in the world. Not killed 2 million people. Actually, not even made 2 million sick. Just infected. So it is 76 million short of infecting 1% of the world’s population.  ...

TRUTH: Quarantine is a period or place of isolation in which people who have been exposed or infected with a contagious disease are placed. The government has used it to impose shelter in place on healthy individuals and close businesses. There are words for that, but quarantine is not one of those words.

TRUTH: This is not a medical crisis, but a political crisis. There is a saying in politics, “never waste a crisis,” and this is apparently true even if the crisis is fabricated. We briefly debated leaving out politics, but the reality is most have already figured this out and there is no explaining the phenomenon that is COVID-19 hysteria without talking politics. In short, Democrats attempted to impeach Trump late in 2019 and failed. Shortly after a State of the Union address in which he touted considerable economic success, COVID-19 was made front and center by the media. Most probably feel both parties have failed us but there is no debating which party is most responsible for pushing the fear. Every time President Trump argues for reopening, the press and the Democrats gnash their teeth and talk higher death tolls.   ...

TRUTH: The Alabama coronavirus numbers presented in the opening paragraph appear to be way off. We are nowhere near 5,000 deaths. In fact, we currently have only 4,700 total cases and 113 deaths.   ...

TRUTH: If you love your children, enjoy sports, or know anyone who owns or is employed by a small business you should be angry. Very angry. We can absolutely take steps to protect the elderly and vulnerable, but everything should reopen immediately.  ...

TRUTH: Nothing will change unless it is demanded. Seriously, take this, repost it, and act on it. It will have to happen nationwide. Call mayors, governors, representatives, senators. Call back the next day. Email them. Email these facts. Verify for yourself which facts you are comfortable utilizing. DO NOT BE LAZY. Call radio stations, TV stations, national news outlets. Send it to medical organizations like the AMA and AAFP. It needs to happen by the thousands. They clearly aren’t paying attention. Or they assume you aren’t.

  

ADDENDUM: I would like to address a few of the concerns and criticisms this document has received. I am changing from we to I because I am speaking only for myself. Primary criticism has been either 1) how do we know this is true/qualification issues or 2) it is a political piece. 

The first criticism simply validates one of the main points of the document. This information can be verified and was valid at the time of publication. Most of the time, you were told exactly where you could find it. The complete lack of effort the public has shown to educate themselves about this virus has contributed to the terror it has created. It really shouldn’t matter who wrote it if the information is valid. I am not an epidemiologist, but, for the record, it was reviewed by one and he agreed.

The second criticism I can at least understand. The objective of the paper was not to be political but to recognize the role it plays in behaviors related to the virus. Frankly, I have never been able to successfully explain why we are hearing so much about a virus that doesn’t make most people sick without involving the politics (and I have tried, and that information is also available). However, I may not have done as well as I could have in conveying that. I am not happy with either party’s handling of the issue. I have had political discussions with patients of every race and persuasion and said the same. Both parties have failed us. I haven’t voted for somebody in way too long. I have voted against somebody else. I have told everyone that has to change if we are going to make it. My primary political concerns are reduced health care premiums, lower deductibles, less expensive drugs, lower taxes, taking care of the environment, and smaller government. We should take care of ourselves and each other. It is my opinion, though, that the media and the Democratic party are most responsible for pushing the fear and trying to keep us from reopening the economy. The point of the paper is to suppress fear, dispense information, and reopen the economy. Yesterday (April 21), Texas’ Governor and Lt. Governor called for reopening their state and the country. The article in The Hill goes on to say Texas has nearly 29 million people with 19,458 having tested positive for coronavirus and 495 fatalities. The response of Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa was that they “would put Texans at-risk to enrich themselves and their stock portfolios.” “They would see our family members die to bail out Wall Street,” Hinojosa said. “The lives of our families, our friends, and our communities have no dollar amount. Texas Republicans can no longer claim to be the pro-life party anymore.” You can draw your own conclusions. I based mine on statements such as those.

  

REVISED April 23, 2020. For those who question whether I am truly anti-fear, as opposed to having another agenda, President Trump disagreed “strongly” with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s decisions to reopen certain businesses in his state. I strongly agree with Governor Kemp.
 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Well worth watching

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

26 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: The media as a whole has grossly misrepresented this disease. We felt if we used the word “deliberately” we may have to present this as an opinion, but it sure appears deliberate.   ...

This is the main driver, it almost reads like a playbook for the Democratic offensive line, holy shite he must be a huge threat after three years of hearings, findings and impeachment and now even biblical proportioned calamities hasn't worked, its only made him stronger, He called Coumo early out on over acting but Joker card was played well by CC, no-one would argue with what might happen, but looks like DT will walk through this again Teflon Don......

Edited April 27, 2020 by James Regan

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

54 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Well worth watching

 

Agreed.  Well worth watching.  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

An interesting read:

https://coronavirustruths.godaddysites.com/

As new data becomes available, we need to now adjust what we are doing as a species.  If there is a "second wave", we should not allow another lockdown, based on the data now available.  I'm still okay with the first lockdown, because we didn't have the data then.

According to worldometers.info from January 1 to April 1, 2020 the worldwide deaths from COVID-19 were 46,438 as opposed to 121,993 for influenza. To recap, during the same three months, with the same social distancing, the same shelter in place, and even handicapped with a vaccine against it, the flu still killed more than two and a half times as many people as COVID-19.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I believe at this point that Governors, one and all, know that people are going to start ignoring their orders en masse, and they have made a conscious decision to let THAT be the way isolations are lifted: with the Governors on record saying they should not, but allowing people to make the choice.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

To provide some commentary on some of his points that I find misleading:

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

LIE: COVID-19 is more infectious than influenza.

Technically this is true. In practice, though, only 10-12% of people get influenza every year because so many have immunity or are immunized each year. If COVID-19 were to run amok, it's expected that around 50% of people would come down with it.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

LIE: COVID-19 is more dangerous than influenza.

This is definitely untrue. Death rates are much higher than with the flu. Total deaths in the UK for the week ending 10 April were 18,516 compared to 10,520 for the same week in a typical year.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

LIE: The fact one doesn’t know he or she has COVID-19 makes it more dangerous.

I think the comparison here is to a disease like SARS or Ebola. Both the flu and COVID-19 are infectious prior to symptoms, allowing them to spread more easily.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: The current policies instituted by our local, state, and national governments are causing greater health problems than the virus ever will.

Opinion, unless research is stated showing this to be the case.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: The media as a whole has grossly misrepresented this disease.

Opinion as well. Where we can point out weeks of Trump spouting nonsense on COVID-19, the media has taken numerous sides on this - generally they have relied on scientists more than politicians and pundits, which is the right thing to do in a case like this.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: The media will continue to fight reopening of this country by stating “experts” predict a spike in deaths if we do so. We would assume those are the same experts who initially predicted 2.2 million US deaths, revised to 200,000, then 100,000, then 60,000, then ordered testing all US deaths just in case they had coronavirus because we weren’t on pace for even 30,000 prior to that change in policy.

The media will continue to quote scientists and report what is actually happening. Initial models for the 2.2 million were for if the government did nothing. Changes in models outputs happen when you change the inputs due to interventions, such as this current lockdown.
One big caveat to this: Imperial College changed a major input when they assumed an infection rate similar to the flu. When they fixed that input it made everything much scarier.
That being said, if the US has similar infection and mortality rates as New York, we can expect:

• NY State population * Infection rate * mortality rate = Total Dead
• 19.5 million * 12% * mortality rate = 22,250 (12% is the suspected infection rate in NY, giving us a mortality rate of 0.95%)
• US population * expected infection rate * mortality rate = expected dead
• 330 million * 50% * 0.95% = 1.57 million dead across the US

1.57 million people dead using more accurate and current figures is not too far off the initial models of 2.2 million.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: Not every country has shut down their economy, and none of those countries have suffered higher rates of death because they have kept their economy going. One of the searches done prior to putting this together related to countries who kept their businesses open. One of the lowest mortality rates in the entire world is Japan, who fits that description.

The countries that didn't shut down their economies were the ones that had test, trace, isolate in place and used additional reduction measures such as face masks - all things that we should have been doing from the beginning and which I don't see us having put in place yet.

Opening without having alternative measures in place is dangerous.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: This is not a medical crisis, but a political crisis.

COVID has become a medical crisis in every country where it has hit, including South Korea and Japan. Any crisis that impacts the entire nation is bound to become a political crisis.

In the UK it wasn't the "liberal media" didn't call the government to account, it was the Tories and the right-wing press that rejected their own government's herd-immunity direction.

In the US, the fact that Trump politicized this from the start rather than putting a plan in place has accelerated the political blowback.

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

TRUTH: If you love your children, enjoy sports, or know anyone who owns or is employed by a small business you should be angry. Very angry. We can absolutely take steps to protect the elderly and vulnerable, but everything should reopen immediately.

Opinion. I believe it to be true as well, but not for the reasons he states. You should be angry at the completely inept management of a manageable crisis that has caused the businesses to close and the complete lack of plans of how to reopen safely.

 

I do expect the disease to peter out over the summer and come back in the autumn. By autumn I hope we have better social distancing and test/trace/isolate in place along with better medical treatments. The messaging so far has been haphazard at best which reduces my confidence that it will happen. Maybe I'll get surprised - I certainly hope so.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Anybody else notice how the news over the weekend reported over 20,000 people in California taking to the beaches?  Did you check to see what their Democrat Governor had to say about it?  He said people should not do that, but that he would not stop them or arrest them (like they could arrest 20,000 people).  And, MOST IMPORTANTLY, did anyone notice that the MSM did not scream bloody murder when it happened in California; unlike when the people protested in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and other states.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

More professionals need to come forward in numbers. The US media will not back down they are far to invested in a campaign of hysteria.  

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

15 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

To provide some commentary on some of his points that I find misleading:

< snip numerous rebuttals >

Please see the 2 videos posted earlier im this thread by El Nikko.  Far more details in the explanations by the doctors in the videos.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

42 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Please see the 2 videos posted earlier im this thread by El Nikko.  Far more details in the explanations by the doctors in the videos.

I didn't rebut them, I rebutted several erros made in the article. Throwing an hour-long video out and saying "this explains everything" does nothing to correct the errors I pointed out. Especially as they sit there pontificating and not providing sources.

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

Since this thing started, I thought that we need to look at the total death count, since the reported COVID-19 death rate is one uncertainty divided by another uncertainty. In regard to total all-cause mortalities in multiple countries versus seasonal norms, an on-point NYT article and excerpt:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

To provide some commentary on some of his points that I find misleading:

Technically this is true. In practice, though, only 10-12% of people get influenza every year because so many have immunity or are immunized each year. If COVID-19 were to run amok, it's expected that around 50% of people would come down with it.

This is definitely untrue. Death rates are much higher than with the flu. Total deaths in the UK for the week ending 10 April were 18,516 compared to 10,520 for the same week in a typical year.

I think the comparison here is to a disease like SARS or Ebola. Both the flu and COVID-19 are infectious prior to symptoms, allowing them to spread more easily.

Opinion, unless research is stated showing this to be the case.

Opinion as well. Where we can point out weeks of Trump spouting nonsense on COVID-19, the media has taken numerous sides on this - generally they have relied on scientists more than politicians and pundits, which is the right thing to do in a case like this.

The media will continue to quote scientists and report what is actually happening. Initial models for the 2.2 million were for if the government did nothing. Changes in models outputs happen when you change the inputs due to interventions, such as this current lockdown.
One big caveat to this: Imperial College changed a major input when they assumed an infection rate similar to the flu. When they fixed that input it made everything much scarier.
That being said, if the US has similar infection and mortality rates as New York, we can expect:

• NY State population * Infection rate * mortality rate = Total Dead
• 19.5 million * 12% * mortality rate = 22,250 (12% is the suspected infection rate in NY, giving us a mortality rate of 0.95%)
• US population * expected infection rate * mortality rate = expected dead
• 330 million * 50% * 0.95% = 1.57 million dead across the US

1.57 million people dead using more accurate and current figures is not too far off the initial models of 2.2 million.

The countries that didn't shut down their economies were the ones that had test, trace, isolate in place and used additional reduction measures such as face masks - all things that we should have been doing from the beginning and which I don't see us having put in place yet.

Opening without having alternative measures in place is dangerous.

COVID has become a medical crisis in every country where it has hit, including South Korea and Japan. Any crisis that impacts the entire nation is bound to become a political crisis.

In the UK it wasn't the "liberal media" didn't call the government to account, it was the Tories and the right-wing press that rejected their own government's herd-immunity direction.

In the US, the fact that Trump politicized this from the start rather than putting a plan in place has accelerated the political blowback.

Opinion. I believe it to be true as well, but not for the reasons he states. You should be angry at the completely inept management of a manageable crisis that has caused the businesses to close and the complete lack of plans of how to reopen safely.

 

I do expect the disease to peter out over the summer and come back in the autumn. By autumn I hope we have better social distancing and test/trace/isolate in place along with better medical treatments. The messaging so far has been haphazard at best which reduces my confidence that it will happen. Maybe I'll get surprised - I certainly hope so.

 

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

From the NYT article linked above:

 

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I didn't rebut them, I rebutted several erros made in the article. Throwing an hour-long video out and saying "this explains everything" does nothing to correct the errors I pointed out. Especially as they sit there pontificating and not providing sources.

Then you didn't watch it all the way through.  In fact, they referenced the data they used, and they separately referenced their own data when applicable.  Over and over again.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

9 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

From the NYT article linked above:

 

Financial Times concurs with this, believing that delayed reporting means that COVID-19 deaths are being under-reported by about 40% in the 13 countries they looked at.  It will be even more difficult to figure this out in the US as each state has different ways to record excess deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Golly gosh, I don't even remember the 1989 flu epidemic which killed almost 30,000 people in the UK

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/281388/Britain-on-alert-for-new-super-flu

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Then you didn't watch it all the way through.  In fact, they referenced the data they used, and they separately referenced their own data when applicable.  Over and over again.

I showed the first guy was full of it, not understanding the difference between opinion and fact and posting misleading and incorrect information.

None of you have rebutted anything that I've said, all you want me to do is waste another hour listening to more people probably talking BS and rebut that.

Either show where I'm wrong or admit that I'm right. Don't just throw more crap at me and expect me to rebut it.

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

8 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Financial Times concurs with this, believing that delayed reporting means that COVID-19 deaths are being under-reported by about 40% in the 13 countries they looked at.  It will be even more difficult to figure this out in the US as each state has different ways to record excess deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Note that there is an offsetting factor reducing total all-cause fatalities, to-wit, presumably a reduction traffic fatalities, due to the collapse in hours driven per day.  So, the increases in various countries above seasonal norms is after an offsetting factor reducing total fatalities.  In any case, note the WP article on total US fatalities. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

19 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I showed the first guy was full of it, not understanding the difference between opinion and fact and posting misleading and incorrect information.

None of you have rebutted anything that I've said, all you want me to do is waste another hour listening to more people probably talking BS and rebut that.

Either show where I'm wrong or admit that I'm right. Don't just throw more crap at me and expect me to rebut it.

Nope.  By telling you he did in fact reference his data, and his and his colleague's own data, and since they are medical doctors in the relevant field,  it means I'm going with their conclusions as opposed to yours.  That's all.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

2 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Nope.  By telling you he did in fact reference his data, and his and his colleague's own data, and since they are medical doctors in the relevant field,  it means I'm going with their conclusions as opposed to yours.  That's all.

Fine. I take it then that my argument is so sound that you can't find a flaw and that you are only believing what it's comforting to believe rather than thinking for yourself.

That's fine. On your way, then.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

15 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I showed the first guy was full of it, not understanding the difference between opinion and fact and posting misleading and incorrect information.

None of you have rebutted anything that I've said, all you want me to do is waste another hour listening to more people probably talking BS and rebut that.

Either show where I'm wrong or admit that I'm right. Don't just throw more crap at me and expect me to rebut it.

I didn't throw that at you I posted the link for anyone who wanted to hear what two doctors with a relevant background thought.

The US has performed massive testing and therefore it's now possible to extrapolate the results for the full populations of each state. They believe that the results indicate that quite large percentages of the populations have already had CV-19 and therefore the mortality rate is similar to flu.

Some people might not like that, yes we can pick holes in extrapolating numbers but it's the best data that exists and is now more scientific than predictive models which was all we had 2 months ago. To get exact numbers and percentages we would need to test every single person which is impossible so as long as you have a big enough sample group extrapolating is the the best way to get an estiamtion of how many people have contracted CV-19.

They also pointed out that the damage being done to the medical profession in the US (which is currently furloughing and laying off staff) is going to have a huge knock on effect to health in general. In the UK this is now becoming very apparent, on average something like 30,000 new cancers get picked up each month and in the month of April than number has falled to around 5000 so there are potentially 25,000 people out there who have not been diagnosed and are not going to get treatment for sometime and as we all know early detection is vital for survival rates.

Just to add it's clear the peak was over on the 8th of April in the UK, we didn't overwhelm the NHS which was the whole point of the 'slow the spread' and 'lockdown'. The hospitals are empty, treatments are delayed, people are scared to go for urgent medical conditions and it looks like the 'second wave' could be of other ilnesses not treated and maybe that will kill just as many people as the virus ever did.

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Nope.  By telling you he did in fact reference his data, and his and his colleague's own data, and since they are medical doctors in the relevant field,  it means I'm going with their conclusions as opposed to yours.  That's all.

You don't go to the New York Times for your medical advice?

Shame on you 😂