Corona Virus Truths

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Deaths per million...US is doing well in that regard and much better than many European countries

Add China and post again, please.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

21 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Add China and post again, please.

I think we can safely say this is just a tiny bit suspicious, I can't add it to the chart but you can see the numbers and they would be rediculously look compared to the other countries

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

I think we can safely say this is just a tiny bit suspicious, I can't add it to the chart but you can see the numbers and they would be rediculously look compared to the other countries

Looks perfectly normal to me, through my rose colored glasses (made in China etched on the lenses).

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

It's really sad to see the unscientific garbage people like 0R0 spread here around, which contradicts everything the actual experts in the area recommends. It's dangerous and irresponsible - as is touting untested drugs as panaceas, or telling people to just inject bleach and "ride it like a cowboy". Social distancing and lockdowns are recommended and practiced for good, and well argumented reasons, and the scenarios developing in various countries clearly indicate that disciplined nations that can put their common goal (survival) above selfish needs of the individual are much more successful in battling the pandemic than those preferring fetishist worship of profits and individual comfort at every cost ("I excercise my FREEDOM to get a haircut!"). 

The USA has the most dead in the world from the virus, it has already killed more people than Vietnam war, one would thing it will serve as a wake up call for the more delusional part of the population, but no. "We demand freedom to go to the pub and infect other people!" Because that's exactly what you do when you ignore the expert advice and act selfishly. You infect other people, killing some of them, because they belong to the vulnerable groups. It's ironic that the same people that want to rob women of their right to decide about themselves by chosing abortion, calling themselves "Pro-Life" are now perfectly okay will killing vulnerable people in the name of profit. 

As the prior post pointed out, the mark of CV19 on a death certificate gets the Feds to cover the bill, so death is "by definition" from CV19 for an uninsured or badly insured deceased patient. In the meantime, thousands die from treatments they didn't get in order to keep the hospitals open for CV19 patients that don't show up any longer. 

I would be surprised if the actual deaths from CV19 reach 1/2 of those registered. I expect about 1/3 are, particularly in NYC. 

Your concern is inverted. The lockdown has obvious and huge damage to the lives of nearly ALL you are certain about and are stomping on people's rights with governments acting without authority as if it is a dictatorship. The benefits are known to be small. The mortality numbers known to be exaggerated, the future possible problems are "maybes". The preventive PPE is cheap and easy to create in large quantities. The simple protocols to reduce your chance of infection and particularly your initial viral load, which can overwhelm your immune reaction even if you carry antibodies. 

Remember that SARS still has no vaccine, as those developed by traditional methods cause a higher mortality on infection than the disease does on its own. The vaccine modulated immune reaction produces a cytokine storm immediately. This virus is similar in the way it interacts with your immune system so it is likely to be vaccine resistant too. Only new vaccine types like the Moderna RNA vaccine and other molecular ones have a chance of working. We will know soon. 

So the big question is which risk you prefer taking. The economic death spiral ending with collapse if you maintain lockdowns, risk of repeated waves of the virus if you do not allow for herd immunity to form, or risk unknown long term consequences of mild infections among the younger kids and their parents, but gain as much herd immunity as you can do at low risk to get to protect the elderly and ill with a buffer of immune people. You don't need to have 60% immunity, the 40% that is the active population staffing cashier and other high contact employments, riding subways and squeezing at bar counters is quite enough as without the virus going through them, you don't reach the rest of the socially less active population.

 

 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 4/28/2020 at 9:56 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

Well, false data he's could be why they pulled the video. NY State already has a 0.12% death rate and that's still rising. Granted, all the west coast states seemed much more prepared from the beginning.

https://www.aaem.org/resources/statements/joint-endorsed/physician-misinformation?fbclid=IwAR2RB0Iq2tRCzJxyvVLdeVFbcuHs5JZYrBblTdjJ6T6TjW1

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

23 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

https://www.aaem.org/resources/statements/joint-endorsed/physician-misinformation?fbclid=IwAR2RB0Iq2tRCzJxyvVLdeVFbcuHs5JZYrBblTdjJ6T6TjW1

 

Looks like a ringing endorsement of their findings. 

These organizations are political in nature. They emphasize culling of information to fit the narrative of the profession. It is not peer review but peer censorship. It would be saying emergency room and urgent care physicians are not to disturb the dogma of epidemiology even if their analysis does not fit the facts. 

[frankfurter + 562]

Actually, the results are very much worse than expected. Death rate must be determined ex-post. This means cases must be finalised, not on-going.  Currently, world-wide, 1372000 cases are final outcomes, and 2726000 are active [on-going]. An active case is an undecided case, and thus invalid for inclusion in cure and death rate. Of the 1372000 final cases, 1127000 are cured, and 245000 are deaths.  This is a ratio of app 9:2.  Thus the death rate, to date, for final cases is 18%. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In the infamous 2-doctors video, they state cleary they are extrapolating the numbers they report.  Anybody can extrapolate, but extrapolation is not a finding and not a fact. 

The real question is: is the data accurate? I suspect the reported cases could be 'complicated' by factors other than covid only. Even so, would possible data contamination reduce the death rate from 18% to less than 1% [per assertions of many here]?  

[El Nikko + 2,145]

4 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Actually, the results are very much worse than expected. Death rate must be determined ex-post. This means cases must be finalised, not on-going.  Currently, world-wide, 1372000 cases are final outcomes, and 2726000 are active [on-going]. An active case is an undecided case, and thus invalid for inclusion in cure and death rate. Of the 1372000 final cases, 1127000 are cured, and 245000 are deaths.  This is a ratio of app 9:2.  Thus the death rate, to date, for final cases is 18%. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In the infamous 2-doctors video, they state cleary they are extrapolating the numbers they report.  Anybody can extrapolate, but extrapolation is not a finding and not a fact. 

The real question is: is the data accurate? I suspect the reported cases could be 'complicated' by factors other than covid only. Even so, would possible data contamination reduce the death rate from 18% to less than 1% [per assertions of many here]?  

Extrapolating is totally scientific but there should be checks that the statistics are collected in a way that they are useful.

Large scale random testing is ideal and extrapolating for the populations of states or regions would be the most accurate way of getting some useful information.

In the UK they targeted health workers and those with symptoms for testing which is problematic to say the least.

[specinho + 470]

It's amazing what people do when they are bored.............

[Marcin2 + 726]

@specinfo Thank you, great meme. I was always fan of giving lollipops to the children instead of chocolate candies, they last much longer per gram of sugar.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Marcin2 + 726]

5 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Extrapolating is totally scientific but there should be checks that the statistics are collected in a way that they are useful.

Large scale random testing is ideal and extrapolating for the populations of states or regions would be the most accurate way of getting some useful information.

In the UK they targeted health workers and those with symptoms for testing which is problematic to say the least.

I think 1 trillion dollars question is to know what is the top mortality of the COVID-19 and adverse effects in people that survived.

At the moment: San Marino, Lombardy and state of New York lead with 0.12-0.14% of population.

It is not much.

But my parents are on total distancing, shielding as per UK NHS cirteria. They have summer house for nearly exclusive use, they are gardening, but otherwise no contacts, even with children (us) and grand-children, only online.

As I said before total economic value of COVID-19 casualties is 0 or even negative. But we are humans so we care about them.

I think that 65+ and diabetes, heart problems need to be shielded till vaccine, better AIDS type therapy is developed.

Government should care about their shopping etc. But they are 15-20% of society, and they vote so not possible.

But economy should be opened I mean shopping malls, some services, all manufacturing. With masks  the probability of death due to COVID-19 is the same as from influenca.

My concern is about other adverse effects from COVID-19, are they typical tough pneumonia or worse ?

[Marcin2 + 726]

16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Looks like a ringing endorsement of their findings. 

These organizations are political in nature. They emphasize culling of information to fit the narrative of the profession. It is not peer review but peer censorship. It would be saying emergency room and urgent care physicians are not to disturb the dogma of epidemiology even if their analysis does not fit the facts. 

Why ? They have better earnings due to more emergency cases they should go for COVID-19 high number of cases. Is it the case that because @frankfurter that is overseas Chinese (by the way he writes) is stating this  you are against his post or it is because Trump ? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

57 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Why ? They have better earnings due to more emergency cases they should go for COVID-19 high number of cases. Is it the case that because @frankfurter that is overseas Chinese (by the way he writes) is stating this  you are against his post or it is because Trump ? 

No they don't, only a number of NYC hospitals and a handful in Detroit, Philly and Boston have anything resembling full ICU occupancy. The vast majority of urgent and emergent care is just plain empty, operating at 30% of capacity.

The idiot association is not even capable of speaking its book. It is a bunch of political consensus authoritarian medicine commanders doing their usual "me too" virtue signaling contortions.

It is @Frankfurters propensity to come up with easily rejectable babble from associations and officials touting non-factual denials and claims. The bottom line is that we have found out that the epidemiologists are just plain incompetent. Their colleagues from the other medical professions  are defending them because they failed so miserably. Note that epidemiologists do not treat patients.

[frankfurter + 562]

5 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

I think 1 trillion dollars question is to know what is the top mortality of the COVID-19 and adverse effects in people that survived.

At the moment: San Marino, Lombardy and state of New York lead with 0.12-0.14% of population.

It is not much.

But my parents are on total distancing, shielding as per UK NHS cirteria. They have summer house for nearly exclusive use, they are gardening, but otherwise no contacts, even with children (us) and grand-children, only online.

As I said before total economic value of COVID-19 casualties is 0 or even negative. But we are humans so we care about them.

I think that 65+ and diabetes, heart problems need to be shielded till vaccine, better AIDS type therapy is developed.

Government should care about their shopping etc. But they are 15-20% of society, and they vote so not possible.

But economy should be opened I mean shopping malls, some services, all manufacturing. With masks  the probability of death due to COVID-19 is the same as from influenca.

My concern is about other adverse effects from COVID-19, are they typical tough pneumonia or worse ?

I presume your numbers are gleaned from some source, but they are extrapolations, not results. If you have not studied the postulate, 'all swans are white', maybe now is a good time?